Manchester Monitor September 2013
Holiday season boosts airport growth
Jobseeker numbers continue to fall Take up falls, but rents remain steady New air routes fuel further growth Year-on-year house prices still falling Half GM hospital assault patients are under 30 www.neweconomymanchester.com firstname.lastname@example.org
Holiday season boosts airport growth Amongst news that the visitor economy was worth £6.6 billion to the Greater Manchester (GM) economy in 2012, recent data from the Civil Aviation Authority shows that in June 2013, Manchester Airport handled 2.1 million passengers, 85,487 (4.2%) higher than 12 months previously, in June 2012. Month-on-month passenger numbers again increased, from 1.9 million in May 2013, an increase of 12.2% (230,143), meaning that the Airport has experienced year-on-year growth in numbers for over 12 months. Predictions indicate that growth will continue this year, with the launch of new routes to Lyon, St Lucia, Antigua, and Barbados in November, as well as increased capacity to Dubai. The airport recently reported that 2013 was the busiest summer since 2008, with 23 August predicted to be its busiest day of the year. The growth in passenger numbers at Manchester Airport is also higher than other major UK airports such as Gatwick, Stansted and Birmingham, and broadly in line with increases seen at Heathrow. Looking at the wider economy, there are signs that things are slowly beginning to improve. This includes a small decrease in inflation (down to 2.8% in July, compared to 2.9% in May), growth in industrial output and a meaningless but confidence-boosting revision to UK Gross Domestic Product, which put economic output at 0.7% for the second quarter of 2013, up from 0.6% in the original estimate published in July. At a GM level, the latest unemployment figures show further reductions in the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM, continuing a positive trend seen over the last few months. Current JSA data show that 78,700 people were claiming JSA in GM in July 2013 – a decrease of 586 (0.7%) when compared with the figure for June 2013 of 79,300. The North West (0.9%) and Great Britain (1.6%) also saw monthly decreases. However, as a proportion of the resident working-age population, 4.5% of people in GM were claiming JSA in July, which remains higher than the North West (3.9%) and Great Britain (3.4%) as a whole. Whilst there continue to be challenges related to deepseated long-term unemployment, and unemployment remains higher relative to the North West and Great Britain, the continued fall in JSA claimants ties in with the positive
signs for the UK economy in terms of falling inflation and rising GDP. Analysis from DTZ on the UK commercial property market highlighted that office take-up in Manchester city centre fell in the second quarter of 2013 to 169,306 sq. ft, while headline prime rents remained unchanged at £30.00 per sq ft. As availability remained at 2.7 million sq. ft in Q2 2013, take-up fell for the second consecutive quarter – falling from 245,369 sq. ft to 169,306 sq ft (76,063 sq ft or 31.0%). More positively, however, Q2 2013 take-up was higher than the corresponding figures for the second quarters of 2010 (129,927 sq. ft), and 2012 (141,133 sq. ft). Take up in Q2 2013 was dominated by grade B deals. Grade A availability did increase in Q2 2013, though the development pipeline remains limited. Further supply is expected in 2014 pending completion of a number of key developments such as 1 St. Peter’s Square, after which the availability is forecast to fall again until new developments come forward. The latest data from the Land Registry show that the average house in GM cost £102,190 in July 2013, a decline of 1.6% (£1,632) from this time last year, in contrast to the small annual rise in house prices for England & Wales as a whole of 1.0% (£1,676), to £164,098. On an annual basis, house sales in GM have risen by 26.3% (504). This is in line with, but proportionally higher than, both the North West and national picture, where house sales have risen 25.0% (1,396) and 19.3% (10,135) respectively on an annual basis. At a national level figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders recently showed that first-time buyers accounted for 45% of house purchase loans in the second quarter of 2013, the highest proportion since records began in 2005. The Funding for Lending Scheme, which incentivises banks and building societies to lend more in return for discounted loans, has been credited with improving mortgage availability. In a new dataset for the Manchester Monitor, information from a collaborative project between New Economy, the GM Public Health Network and Liverpool John Moores University, has shown that for the 12 months ending June 2013 at least 11,000 people were treated for assault-related injuries over the last 12 months in GM hospitals. This represents a decrease of approximately 2.5% on the figures from 12 months previously. Over half (52.8% or 5,940) of assault patients in that period were aged 15–29.
Assault data from Tameside Hospital NHS Foundation Trust is currently being validated and so is excluded from the analysis.
1 | Manchester Monitor – September 2013
Monitor Dashboard Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants
since last year
since June 2012
Business Indicator (office space)
Take up down 21% on last quarter, but up year on year over the same quarters in 2010, 2011 and 2012. Over £280 million of transactions in the local market in the first six months of 2013.
1%pt on July 2012 in GM
Average house price in GM: £102,190
10.2% since July 2012
All data in this edition of the Manchester Monitor can be downloaded from: neweconomymanchester.com/stories/1752 Manchester Monitor – September 2013 | 2
People Monitor Jobseeker numbers continue to fall The latest figures show that around 78,700 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in Greater Manchester (GM) in July 2013 – a decrease of 600 (-0.7%) when compared with the figure for June 2013 of 79,300. The North West (-0.9%) and Great Britain (-1.6%) also saw monthly decreases. As a proportion of the resident working age population, 4.5% of people in GM were claiming JSA in July – higher than the North West (3.9%) and Great Britain (3.4%).
The number of male JSA claimants fell on a monthly basis
The continued fall in JSA claimants accompanies other
by 1.6% (855) to 52,000, while the number of female
encouraging signs such as a small decrease in inflation, and
claimants rose by 1.0% (270) to 26,700. There was a year-
reported growth in industrial output. However, longer term
on-year fall in male JSA claimants in GM of 5,200 (9.1%).
issues still remain in GM, where unemployment remains high
The number of female claimants also fell year-on-year, and
in both absolute terms and relative to the North West and
is now 2.3% (633) lower than this time last year.
Great Britain. In addition, the ILO unemployment figure serves to highlight the challenging conditions for those
Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16-24) in GM increased on a monthly basis between June and July, rising
searching for new opportunities in the labour market in the wider region.
by approximately 195 to 20,900. Year-on-year, the number of youth JSA claimants declined by 15.4%, and is now 3,800 lower than this time last year.
Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in June 2013
There was also a decline in long-term (6 months+) claimants in GM in July 2013 to 37,500, a monthly fall of 800 (-2.1%). 3.6% (1,400) lower than this time last year. The North West
(-5.6%) and Great Britain (-6.0%) also saw annual declines
Decreased by 6.9% year-on-year
On an annual basis the number of long-term claimants is
in long-term claimants. The Government’s official measure of unemployment uses the International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition, which is higher than the claimant count as it includes those that
Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change
are unemployed but not claiming JSA. This is only available down to a regional level but it does show that the proportion of people aged 16 plus out-of-work in the North West was up slightly on a quarterly basis, to 8.2% from 8.0% AprilJune 2013. UK unemployment currently stands at 7.8%, so the proportion of people out of work across the region remains higher than national trends.
3 | Manchester Monitor – September 2013
Business Monitor 4,000,000
13 Q 2-
Q 412 Q 113
Q 211 Q 311
Take Up (sq. ft)
Availability (sq. ft)
Office Take-Up and Availability in Manchester (sq. ft)
Take up falls, but rents remain steady According to DTZ’s latest assessment of the property market, office take-up in Manchester city centre fell in the second quarter of 2013 to 169,306sq. ft, while headline prime rents remained unchanged at £30.00 per sq ft.
Overall take-up in the city centre fell slightly in Q2 2013, for a second consecutive quarter – dropping from 245,369 sq. ft to 169,306 sq ft (76,063 sq. ft, or a decline of 31.0%). More positively however, Q2 2013 take-up was higher than the corresponding figures for the second quarters of 2010 (129,927 sq. ft), and 2012 (141,133 sq. ft).
Thereafter availability is forecast to fall, with sharper falls in grade A availability this year, despite further prospective developments such as 2 St. Peter’s Square offering a possible 40,000 sq. ft of new space in the city centre. The current prime rent for office space in Manchester is £30 per sq. ft, having remained unchanged since Q4 2011.
Availability remained at 2.7 million sq. ft in Q2 2013. At the same time in 2012 the amount of office space available in Manchester stood at 3.2 million sq. ft. Take up in Q2 2013 was dominated by grade B deals, with only one grade A deal taking place. Grade A availability did increase in Q2 2013, although the development pipeline remains limited. Further supply is expected in 2014 pending completion of a number of key developments such as 1 St. Peter’s Square.
Analysis from CBRE adds that business confidence is gaining momentum, highlighted by stabilising rents in secondary office space in Manchester. CBRE also note that market sentiment has strengthened, with a significant improvement in the local investment market – with transactions in the first six months of 2013 totalling £238million. This compares to £36.9million of deals in the last six months of 2012.
Manchester Monitor – September 2013 | 4
Place Monitor New air routes fuel further growth The latest monthly airport data from the Civil Aviation Authority reveal that Manchester Airport has now seen year-on-year rises in passenger numbers for more than 12 months, a trend which is forecast to continue over the remainder of the year as new routes are introduced. In further good news for the conurbation, GM’s hotels continue to show high occupancy rates, while there were more than 105 million visitors to Manchester in 2012. Airport Passenger Numbers Manchester Airport handled 2.1 million passengers in June 2013, 85,487 (4.2%) higher than 12 months previously. Month-on-month passenger numbers again increased, from 1.9 million in May 2013, an increase of 12.2% (230,143). June is traditionally the start of the busy holiday period and the Airport recently reported that this year was the busiest summer since 2008.
Hotel Occupancy Hotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre were recorded at 77% in July 2013, the same rate as the same month last year. Weekend occupancy in the city centre averaged 81% during the month, down one percentage point on the July 2012 figure of 82%. The weekday average occupancy in the city centre was 76%, up one percentage point since July 2012.
The growth in passenger numbers at Manchester Airport is also higher than all of the other major UK airports, with the exception of Heathrow, which was slightly higher at 4.6% between June 2012 and June 2013. Over the same annual period, Gatwick, Stansted and Birmingham saw passenger numbers grow by 3.3%, 2.0%, and 3.4% respectively.
For GM as a whole, average occupancy rates in June were 78%, a rise of one percentage point compared to the previous 12 months.
With over a year of consecutive month-on-month growth in passenger numbers at Manchester Airport, all indications are that this growth will continue for the remainder of the year, with the launch of new routes to St Lucia, Antigua, Barbados and Lyon in November, as well as increased capacity to Dubai. Manchester Airports Group (MAG), which runs Manchester, Bournemouth, East Midlands and Stansted airports recently reported that profits had increased 12.8% for 2012/13 – resulting in a dividend of £72million. In a boost for the local area, GM’s 10 councils, which own two thirds of MAG, will receive £48million of this dividend.
Airport passenger numbers
Key dates for hotel occupancy in the city centre during June were: • 27 July – occupancy of 98% was achieved, boosted by Manchester Jazz Festival and the RHS Flower Show at Tatton Park. • 15 July – 95% occupancy was recorded, which included a performance by Rihanna at the Phones 4u Arena – formerly the Manchester Arena. New data on the overall value of the visitor economy serve to highlight how important it remains to GM. According to the data published for 2012, Manchester had 105.5m visits in 2012, of which 95.2m were day visits and 10.3m staying visits. The economic impact of the visitor economy in 2012 was £6.6 billion, an increase from 2011 of £0.4 billion, and supporting nearly 84,000 FTE jobs.
Hotel occupancy (city centre)
Hotel occupancy (GM)
% represents year-on-year change
IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.
5 | Manchester Monitor – September 2013
Housing Monitor GM Housing Market
7,000 July 2013 : £102, 190 6,000
May 2013 : 2,419
Average House Price
Year-on-year house prices still falling The latest data from the Land Registry show that the average house in GM cost £102,190 in July 2013, a decline of 1.6% (-£1,632) from this time last year. England & Wales saw a small annual rise in house prices of 1.0% (£1,676), reaching £164,098. House Prices Property prices in England & Wales grew marginally in July 2013, rising by 1.0% (£1,676), and now stand at £164,098, the highest figure since August 2012. House prices in GM saw a slight month-on-month rise of 0.4% (£392) in July 2013 to £102,190. On an annual basis, house prices in GM have fallen 1.6% (£1,632). At a local authority level in GM, only Manchester (1.2% or £1,111) and Trafford (1.4% or £2,457) saw house prices rises between June 2012 and June 2013. The remaining eight districts all saw declines, with the largest coming in Wigan (-5.4% or £5,065), Salford (-4.5% or £4,042), and Rochdale (-4.1% or £3,632). GM remains behind the curve in terms of house price rises and according to a survey by the Nationwide Building Society in August, UK property values rose by 3.5% yearon-year.
House sales Land Registry house sales data reveal that there were 2,419 properties sold in GM in May 2013, a monthly increase of 20.2% (407). This also reflected the picture in the North West (28.4% or 1,541) and nationally (26.1% or 12,951), which also saw a month-on-month rise in house sales. Year-on-year, house sales in GM have risen by 26.3% (504). This is in line with, but proportionally higher than, both the North West and national picture, where house sales have risen 25.0% (1,396) and 19.3% (10,135) respectively on an annual basis. At a national level figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders recently showed that first-time buyers accounted for 45% of house purchase loans in the second quarter of 2013, the highest proportion since records began in 2005. The Funding for Lending Scheme which incentivises banks and building societies to lend more in return for discounted loans, has been credited with improving mortgage availability.
Manchester Monitor – September 2013 | 6
Crime Monitor Assault Attendances at Greater Manchester Emergency Departments Number of Incidents By Victim Age Group 7,000 6,232 5,940
2,000 1,292 1,000
12 mths to end June 2012
60 and Over
12 mths to end June 2013
Half GM hospital assault patients are under 30 A data sharing project coordinated by New Economy, in collaboration with the GM Public Health Network and Liverpool John Moores University, is gathering data on emergency department assault attendances from each of Greater Manchester’s eight hospital trusts. Assaults are often not reported to the police and so this dataset offers a fresh perspective on a potentially hidden picture of violent crime. Assaults Data Baseline data for the 12 months ending June 2013 show that at least 11,000 people were treated for assault related injuries over the last 12 months in GM hospitals. This represents a decrease of approximately 2.5% on the figures from the previous year. Analysing the data in further detail, 52.8% (5,940) of assault patients were aged 15–29. The same demographic comprises just 21.5% of the GM resident population as a whole according to latest National Statistics estimates, highlighting that 15–29 year olds remain particularly vulnerable to violence, despite a marginal reduction (5%, or 300 fewer patients) in the most recent twelve months.
7 | Manchester Monitor – September 2013
GM Fire & Rescue Service Data Deliberate secondary fires in GM (i.e. smaller fires affecting open spaces and the public realm rather than property) were recorded at 7,750 for the 12 months to July 2013, compared to a figure of 6,500 for the previous year, an annual increase of 19.2% (-1,250). Increases have been seen in 8 out of 10 districts, and most notably in Wigan (+55%), Rochdale (+34%), Stockport (+34%) and Salford (+30%). This increase reflects both the particularly hot weather in April and July of this year, and the wettest April – July period in decades in the previous year. The reducing number of Home Fire Safety Checks recorded in the most recent period (10,583 fewer checks, a 14.9% reduction on the previous year) reflects the fact that crews, partners and other fire service staff have already completed over 130,000 checks during 2011/12 and 2012/13. GMFRS is on course to meet its corporate targets for the period 2011/14, and is now using a refined approach to target the highest risk households and communities.
The September 2013 edition of the Manchester Monitor, published by New Economy, and providing a snapshot on Greater Manchester's economy.