Manchester Monitor November 2012
Recession ends but challenges remain
Little Change in Labour Market Picture Declining Domestic Demand Hits GM Firms Visitor Economy Sees Further Growth Housing Market Bumping Along the Bottom GM Continuing to See Falls in Crime www.neweconomymanchester.com email@example.com
Monitor Focus Recession ends but challenges remain The recession may have officially ended, however Greater
One area in which GM continues to do well is the growth of
Manchester still faces a series of challenges as the UK
its visitor economy. For example, passenger numbers at
emerges from the economic downturn. In particular, the
Manchester Airport were recorded at 2.2million in August
latest Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) figures show that GM
2012 – 37,000 more than the same month 12 months ago.
has work to do in terms of boosting its labour market, while
Prospects for growth at the Airport also look good, with its
the Q3 2012 Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) produced by
potential takeover of Stansted and Ryanair launching flights
the Chamber of Commerce suggests that weakening
to five new destinations next summer, in a move that will
domestic demand has begun to hit firms in the second half
create up to 360 jobs. In addition, hotel occupancy rates in
of the year.
Manchester city centre were recorded at 81.7% in September 2012 – representing the best September
Approximately 84,900 people were claiming JSA in GM in
occupancy rate for the city centre since 2006.
September 2012, in line with the figure for August 2012 of 85,000. On an annual basis, however, the overall number of
The latest crime figures are also positive, showing that for the
JSA claimants is 2,400 (3.0%) higher in GM and it is
12 months ending September 2012 there were 18,300 fewer
therefore behind the curve compared to the North West and
victim-based crimes (violence, sexual offences, criminal
Great Britain, which have seen unemployment fall year-on-
damage & arson, and stealing), an annual decline of 9.9%.
year by 0.5% and 1.9% respectively. While the UK economy may have returned to growth, this The Q3 QES serves to highlight the ongoing challenges
month’s Monitor shows that the GM labour market and
faced by the business community. Gauging the opinions of
business base are still not out of the woods as it heads
more than 800 firms in GM, it highlights that the economy
towards the new year. The latest release of the Greater
stalled in the three months to September. Falling UK sales
Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) therefore comes at
and orders in both the manufacturing and service sectors
an opportune time – providing long-term employment and
indicate that the economy remains in a fragile state. Against
economic output estimates, it will highlight the clear
this backdrop, international markets have never been more
challenges facing GM but also the real opportunities for
important for GM, and the fact that the QES reports that
growth. Full details on future trends will be discussed at New
manufacturing exports are continuing to see growth is a very
Economy’s annual GMFM seminar, and further information
on the event can be found at: http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/832-upcoming_events.
In other areas of the GM economy, the housing market is still struggling. On an annual basis prices have fallen for 22 successive months, with the average GM property now costing around £104,000. The latest sales data show that there were just under 2,200 properties sold in GM in July 2012 and there is little sign of life coming back to the market in the foreseeable future, with sellers increasingly having to re-price homes in order to try and attract buyers.
2 | Manchester Monitor – November 2012
Monitor Statistics Indicator
Balance of manufacturing domestic sales
Balance of manufacturing domestic orders
Balance of service domestic sales
Balance of service domestic orders
Youth Claimants (Aged 16-24)
Long-Term Claimants (6 Months+)
Housing benefit recipients
Council tax benefit recipients
Hotel Occupancy (city centre)
Hotel Occupancy (GM)
Total Crime Volume
Victim-Based Crime Volume
Total Crime Solved Rate
Victim-Based Crime Solved Rate
Crimes per 1,000 population
Total Deliberate Fires
Average House Price Number Of Sales
Manchester Airport Passengers
Manchester Monitor – November 2012 | 3
People Monitor GM labour market remains stagnant The latest unemployment data show that 84,900 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM in September 2012 – in line with the figure for August 2012 of 85,000. On an annual basis, however, the overall number of JSA claimants is 3.0% (2,400) higher, counter to declines seen at regional and national level. There were small monthly falls in JSA claimants at regional
As of September 2012, ILO unemployment amongst
(-0.6%) and national (-1.1%) levels. Of more significance,
people aged 16 and over in the region was recorded at
both the North West (-0.5%) and Great Britain (-1.9%) saw
8.4% in the quarter to August 2012, compared to 9.5% in
annual declines in the number of people claiming JSA
the quarter to May. While it remains above the UK average
claimants, in contrast to GM.
of 7.9%, the gap narrowed significantly, from 1.4 to 0.6 percentage points.
Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16–24) in GM increased on a monthly basis between August and
While the two measures are clearly not comparable, regional
September by around 200 to approximately 25,000. More
falls in ILO unemployment will hopefully translate into
positively, on an annual basis the number of youth JSA
declines in JSA in GM, given the employment generating
claimants has fallen in GM by 1,900 (7.0%).
opportunities available here.
There was a fall in long-term (6 months+) claimants in GM
Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in September 2012
to 38,200 in September 2012, a monthly decline of 1.5% (-600). However, on an annual basis, the number of long-
term claimants remains substantially higher (21.4% or 6,700) than this time last year, mirroring the situation in the North West (+21.2%) and Great Britain (+16.7%) and
Increased by 3% year-on-year
highlighting the difficulty of people out-of-work getting back into employment. The Government’s official measure of unemployment uses the International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition, which
Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change
is higher than the claimant count as it includes those that are unemployed but not claiming JSA. . This is only available down to a regional level but it does show that the number of people out-of-work in the North West is falling.
4 | Manchester Monitor – November 2012
Business Monitor UK Sales for GM Businesses 20
UK Services Sales Q3 2012: +5%
Balance of Firms
-10 UK Manufacturing Sales Q3 2012: -2%
Start of first recession
112 Q 212
111 Q 211
Q 209 Q 309
Q 408 Q 109
Q 208 Q 308
Falling domestic demand hits firms The Q3 Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) gauges the opinions of more than 800 companies across GM. The findings from the QES suggest that the economy stalled in the three months to September, and that the recent fall in unemployment came to a halt, as public sector spending cuts and weak consumer demand took their toll. Manufacturing Sector
Domestic demand levels in the GM manufacturing sector
More positively, the GM service sector did see growth in
weakened in Q3 2012 according to the QES, with the
domestic sales. A positive balance of +5% in Q3 2012 was
balance of companies reporting growth in UK sales standing
recorded, although this was down significantly on +12% in
at -2%. This was the first time since Q2 2011 that the sector
the second quarter of the year. However, domestic orders in
recorded a negative value for domestic sales, although
the GM service sector had a negative balance of -1% in Q3
activity has been weakening since the turn of the year.
2012, down from the positive figures of +2% and +3% in Q1 and Q2 respectively.
The forward looking indicator of domestic orders for manufacturing in the QES remained broadly similar in Q3
Exports in the service sector also suffered in Q3, with a
2012 to the previous quarter, with a balance of -9%.
balance of -2% for sales and -4% for future orders. This was
However, there have now been five consecutive quarters
in stark contrast to the first half of the year, when both Q1
where order books have effectively been at zero or below.
and Q2 were still seeing positive growth in both indicators.
Export sales and orders for GM manufacturers remain
In relation to the downward trends seen in the QES, the
Chamber notes that continuing uncertainty within Europe
international markets to growth.
and the Eurozone debt crisis are likely to have been key contributors to the contracting measures.
Manchester Monitor â€“ November 2012 | 5
Place Monitor Airport passenger numbers enjoy another strong month Passenger numbers at Manchester Airport continued their year-on-year rise in August, with the popularity of long-haul destinations helping to boost numbers. Hotel data also shows that occupancy levels in the city centre reached their highest September level since 2006. Airport Passenger Numbers
Passenger numbers at Manchester Airport were 2.21 million
Hotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre were
in August 2012, compared to 2.18 million 12 months
recorded at 81.7% in September 2012, up by 2.0 percentage
previously, an increase of 1.7% (37,000 additional
points on an annual basis. This was the best September
passengers). Scheduled international routes saw growth of
occupancy rate for the city centre since 2006, and was
10.3%, while domestic services witnessed a 4.4% rise.
helped by a range of comedy, music, sporting and
Charter traffic declined by 13.1% on an annual basis.
conference events being held in the city. In particular, delegates arriving at the end of September for the Labour
Long-haul travellers flying to Las Vegas and Florida as well
Party Conference boosted occupancy.
as resorts in Mexico and Cuba were cited as key factors behind the increase in August.
For GM as a whole, average occupancy rates in September were 79.8%, down marginally on the 80.1% achieved 12
Looking at trends at other UK airports, passenger numbers
at Birmingham grew by 9.1% between August 2011 and August 2012, London Gatwick saw a modest 0.3%
Important dates for hotel occupancy in September were:
increase, while London Heathrow suffered a decline of • 19 September – occupancy of 98% was achieved, with
Manchester United playing at home in the UEFA Prospects for growth over the rest of the year at Manchester
Champions League, the British Squash Grand Prix at the
Airport look good, especially following the recent
National Sport Centre and Manchester Central hosting a
announcement that Ryanair will introduce five new routes
from next summer to Corfu, Lanzarote, Paphos (Cyprus), • 29 September – 98% occupancy was also reached when
Krakow and Trapani (Sicily).
Manchester United played at home in the Premier League In further significant news it has now been confirmed that
and Labour Party delegates started arriving in the city for
Manchester Airports Group (MAG) will be making a bid for
the opening of their annual conference.
Stansted Airport, which handles around 18 million passengers a year. A decision on the successful bidder is expected in 2013. Airport passenger numbers
Hotel occupancy (city centre)
Hotel occupancy (GM)
15,734 % represents year-on-year change
6 | Manchester Monitor – November 2012
Housing Monitor Average House Prices £400000
£350000 £300000 £250000 £200000
England & Wales £162,561
Greater Manchester £104,257
£100000 £50000 Sep-00
Housing market still flatlining The average house in GM cost £104,257 in September 2012, and properties have now been hovering around the £104,000– 106,000 mark for well over 12 months. With the number of homes being sold remaining flat, the deep inertia affecting the market is showing no sign of ending. House prices in England & Wales remained reasonably static
The latest house sales data for July show that total sales in
between August and September at £162,561 (a small
GM stood at 2,163, a small monthly rise of 3.1% (+65)
monthly decline of 0.3%). On an annual basis, house prices
compared with June, in contrast to a decline of 2.6%
actually grew by 1.1% (+£1,702) nationally.
nationally and a static trend regionally.
London continues to see the strongest increases in house
A recent report by property analyst Hometrack suggests that
prices with annual growth of 5.5% between September 2011
the housing market is likely to remain subdued for the
foreseeable future, with sellers increasingly having to reprice homes that are failing to attract buyers.
Looking at year-on-year house prices across GM, only Trafford (+0.4% or £800) saw any house price growth
Even the government's Funding for Lending scheme, which
between September 2011 and 2012. The other nine GM
is designed to encourage banks and building societies to
districts all saw declines, with the largest falls witnessed in
offer more loans, has thus far had little effect on the housing
Salford (-3.7%), Tameside (-3.5%), Rochdale (-2.3%) and
market. Analysts cite the high cost of underwriting loans as
the key reason behind this view, which is forcing lenders to charge prohibitively high rates of interest to borrowers with small deposits.
Manchester Monitor – November 2012 | 7
Crime Monitor All Crime Offences per 1,000 Population, 2011-12
Year ending June 2012
Year ending June 2011
83.6 79.8 76.2
50 40 30 20 10 0 Greater Manchester
Crime continues to fall in GM Data released by Her Majestyâ€™s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) provide comparator information on crimes committed in GM with other similar constabulary areas in England & Wales. For the year ending June 2012, the number of offences committed per 1,000 population has fallen significantly in GM on an annual basis. Comparator Crime Data
Crime Volumes & Solved Rates
The HMIC data shows that for the 12 months to June 2012,
Figures provided by GM Police for the year ending 30
there were 76.2 offences committed in GM per 1,000
September 2012 show that there were 23,100 fewer
offences in GM, a year-on-year decline of 10.6%, down to just over 194,000 reported crimes. Victim-based crime
Looking at similar forces in England and Wales, the figure is below that for West Yorkshire (Leeds city region, at 79.2 offences), but above Merseyside (69.1), Northumbria (50.5), South Yorkshire (74.1), and the West Midlands (69.2). More positively however, there were 8.0 fewer offences per 1,000 population in GM for the year ending June 2012 than 12 months previously. With the exception of the West
(violence, sexual offences, criminal damage & arson and stealing) accounted for 85% of all offences, with approximately 166,000 cases, an annual fall of 9.9% (-18,300). Fire & Rescue Service Data Deliberate fires in GM fell substantially by 26% (2,900 fewer) over the year to September 2012, declining to 8,100.
Midlands constabulary (10.6 fewer offences on an annual basis), this was a higher fall than any other comparable
Primary fires, which are fires where owned property is
force, where year-on-year falls ranged from 2.1 fewer
involved, fell by 580 to 1,900 for the year ending September
offences (South Yorkshire) to 5.0 (Northumbria).
2012, a similarly large decline of 23.2%.
8 | Manchester Monitor â€“ November 2012