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Manchester Monitor February 2014

Visitor economy thriving as recovery takes hold

Jobseeker numbers fall again Services and manufacturing continue strong sales growth Annual occupancy rates match pre recession levels GM housing market shows slight growth Year-on-year rise in assault patients

www.neweconomymanchester.com research@neweconomymanchester.com


Monitor Focus Visitor economy thriving as recovery takes hold Recent months have seen signs that economic recovery is taking hold – last month’s Manchester Monitor reported further improvements in Greater Manchester’s (GM’s) economic climate, and this month sees similar trends, with the addition of further positive signs around business orders and an upturn in the housing market. Continuing the good news, annual data on hotel occupancy show that Manchester city centre achieved its strongest year of hotel occupancy since records began. The data from STR Global Ltd shows that Manchester city centre hotels had an annual occupancy rate of 77% in 2013, the highest rate since 2006. This figure is especially positive given that between 2006 and 2013 hotel capacity in the city was increased by 58%: from 4,990 rooms in 2006 to 7,860 rooms in 2013. The annual occupancy rate of GM as a whole in 2013 was almost as high at 76%. This annual success follows a series of high points for 2013, including an increasingly competitive and comprehensive cultural offer. A record August saw the Ashes, Manchester Pride and several major international conferences, and the highest ever recorded city centre weekend rate was 93% in November, with the Rugby League World Cup Final and Manchester Christmas Markets key drivers. For the month of December 2013, hotel occupancy in GM was recorded at 71.0%, which represents a year-on-year rise of 0.8 percentage points on December 2012. City centre hotel occupancy was recorded at 72.0% in December 2013, a slight year-on-year fall of 0.2 percentage points from December 2012. Manchester was recently named one of the top growth markets for hotel rooms outside of London over the next three years, as growth in the sector looks set to continue. Further positive signs for hotel occupancy in the city include forecast increases over the coming months with the return of European football. The visitor economy of GM continues to grow, further illustrated by Manchester Airport passenger numbers once again seeing an annual rise of 17,300 (1.3%) between November 2012 and 2013. The latest figures released on Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants show that once again, fewer people were claiming JSA in GM than the previous month; a decrease of 3.3%, or 2,100 people from November 2013. GM enjoyed a greater month-on-month decrease than both the North West (1.7%)

1 | Manchester Monitor – February 2014

and the UK (1.8%). Unemployment as a proportion of the working-age population, at 3.6%, is in line with the regional figure of 3.5%, but remains higher than the national average of 2.9%. The continuing fall in unemployment suggests that the UK economy is in a sustained period of recovery, and the latest GDP data add further weight to this view. In the fourth quarter of 2013, preliminary estimates by the Office of National Statistics show that UK GDP grew by 0.7%. This means that the UK economy as a whole grew by 1.9% in 2013, which represents the fastest rate of annual growth since 2007. On business, GM Chamber of Commerce’s Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) for the last quarter of 2013 gauges the opinion of more than 800 companies across GM. The latest results indicate continued positivity, as UK sales and orders across both services and manufacturing were again higher in the quarter. The services sector in particular recorded highs in sales and orders – some the highest in the ten-year history of the QES – a particularly positive sign for the GM economy, given the importance of the service sector in growth forecasts. The manufacturing sector has also been building strongly over the last two quarters of 2013, with the UK sales balance increasing to its highest post-recession figure (+27%), following three consecutive quarters of UK sales growth. Manufacturing orders also increased again in the fourth quarter, up 3 points to +21%. House prices in GM, after a prolonged period of stagnation are starting to rise, reflecting wider economic growth, with a year-on-year increase in the GM average house price of 1.2% (£1,255) from this time last year, to £104,507. This remains lower than the England & Wales average price, which also saw growth, but for the first time in many months, five of GM’s ten Local Authority districts saw house price increases year-on-year. Ending with a regular look at crime data, GM’s hospitals have reported a year-on-year rise in the number of people being treated for assault-related injuries over the last twelve months of 7.8% on the figures from November 2012. This represents the highest rolling figure since May 2011, and follows a trend of figures increasing since November 2012.


Monitor Dashboard Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants

Airport Passengers

22.9%

1.3%

since last year

since November 2012

UK Sales in GM Firms

Hotel Occupancy

9 points

0.2%pts

The balance of GM service sector companies reporting improving UK sales figures is up on Q3 2013 to +36%.

City centre on December 2012

House Prices

Assault Attendances in GM

1.2%

7.8%

since December 2012

since November 2012

Manchester Monitor – February 2014 | 2


People Monitor Jobseeker numbers fall again. The latest figures show that around 63,300 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in Greater Manchester (GM) in December 2013. This is a fall of 2,100 (3.3%) from November 2013, when 65,400 people were claiming JSA, and larger than the falls seen in the North West (1.7%) and Great Britain (1.8%). As a proportion of the resident working-age population, 3.6% of people in GM were claiming JSA in December – in line with the North West (3.5%) but still higher than the Great Britain average (2.9%). JSA claimants

Vacancies Data

The number of male JSA claimants fell on a monthly basis by 2.8% (1,212) to 41,491, while the number of female claimants decreased by 4.1% (920) to 21,775. This equates to a year-on-year fall in GM for male JSA claimants of 11,223 (19.9%) and for female claimants of 3,992 (14.2%).

Labour Insight reveals that there were 12,841 job openings in GM in December 2013, down by over a quarter (-5,348) on the same month last year. This is a higher proportional decrease than at the UK level over the same period, which saw a year-on-year reduction of 14.5%. It should be noted, however, that vacancies data can be subject to season variation.

Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16–24) in Greater Manchester decreased on a monthly basis between November and December, falling by 1,065 to around 15,365. On an annual basis, the number of youth JSA claimants is now 30.9% (6,865) lower than this time last year. There was also a decline in long-term (6 months+) claimants in GM in December 2013 to 29,130, a monthly fall of 1,310 (4.3%). On an annual basis the number of long-term claimants is 18.3% (6,530) lower than this time last year, a larger fall than in Great Britain as a whole (17.5%), though marginally above that for the North West (19.0%). The decline in JSA claimants in GM in the final month of 2013 is an indicator that the local economy is strengthening. Though the usual seasonal boost in employment, as people moved off JSA to take-up temporary Christmas jobs is also a driver of change. The challenge remains to ensure that an overall good start to the year is turned into a long-term sustained recovery. GM is making additional funding available for its Business Growth Hub to provide targeted support to more than 1,000 local businesses, highlighting the local ambition to ensure this is the case.

The highest proportion of vacancies were in professional occupations (34.0% or 4,367), followed by associate professional & technical roles (20.4%, 2,624). Over two-thirds of the vacancies in GM in December were in Manchester (9,197, or 71.6%), followed by Bolton (780, 6.1%), and Stockport (712, 5.5%). The top three detailed occupation types in GM in December 2013 were: programmers and software development professionals (743 postings); nurses (562 postings); and IT business analysts, architects & systems designers (393 postings). The data also allows analysis of skills clusters, which reveals that the top three sought skills in GM for December, outside of generic skills such as communication and problem solving, are: programming, development & engineering; web design & technologies; and databases and data warehousing.

Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change

Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in December 2013

63,266 Decreased by 22.9% year-on-year

Vacancies - Annual Change Women

Men

Youth

$14.2% $19.9% $30.9% $18.3%

$29.4% 1

Source: Labour/insight (Burning Glass Technologies)

3 | Manchester Monitor – February 2014

Long-term


Business Monitor UK Sales for GM Firms 50 10-year high for service sector

40 30

Balance of firms

20 3 quarters of consecutive manufacturing

10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Q4 04

Q4 05

Q4 06

Q4 07

Q4 08 Manufacturing

Q4 09

Q4 10

Q4 11

Q4 12

Q4 13

Services

Services and manufacturing continue strong sales growth The Q4 2013 GM Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) gauges the opinion of more than 800 companies across GM. The latest results show the continuation of a highly positive picture as 2013 drew to a close, with the outlook for UK orders and deliveries again higher in the quarter for both services and manufacturing. The services sector in particular displays record highs in sales and orders, which is particularly positive given the importance of the sector to the GM economy. Services

Manufacturing

GM Chamber’s Q4 QES shows the balance of service sector companies reporting improving UK sales figures standing at +36%, the highest level recorded in the ten-year history of the QES, and exceeding pre-recession average levels.

The QES shows that the wider manufacturing sector has been building strongly since Q3 2013, with the UK sales balance again increasing, up 10 points in Q4 to +27%, its highest post-recession figure, after three consecutive quarters of UK sales growth. Orders have also increased again this quarter, up 3 points to +21%.

A strong rise of 9 points from the previous quarter indicates further increase in demand towards the end of the calendar year. The strength of the service sector’s UK order book is also good, rising 8 points to 28.0%. This too is at a record level for the QES, exceeding the previous highest record of the first quarter of 2004. Export sales in the service sector increased sharply during Q4, with the balance rising 17 points from +13% in Q3 to +30% in Q4. Export orders continued to grow, rising more steeply than in Q3 – seven points from +15% to +22% in Q4 – another record high.

After a weakening in manufacturing exports towards the end of the 2012, there have now been four consecutive quarters of increasing international sales, rising a further five points in Q4 to +26%. Export orders also continued to rise this quarter increasing five points from +19% in Q3 to +24% in Q4.

Manchester Monitor – February 2014 | 4


Place Monitor Annual occupancy rates match pre recession levels Annual hotel occupancy data from STR Global Ltd confirms that Manchester city centre achieved its strongest year of trading since records began. Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) data on passenger numbers are also positive, with Manchester Airport once again seeing an annual rise in the number of passengers.

Hotel Occupancy Annual hotel occupancy data for 2013 from STR Global Ltd reveals that Manchester city centre achieved an annual occupancy rate of 77%, matching the previously highest annual rate recorded in 2006. The figure is especially positive given that between 2006 and 2013 there was a 58% increase in the number of rooms to fill in the city centre – up from 4,990 in 2006 to 7,860 in 2013. The annual occupancy rate across GM for 2013 was recorded at 76%. Year-on-year, hotel occupancy in GM as a whole was recorded at 71.0% in December 2013, a rise of 0.8 percentage points on December 2012. In the city centre of Manchester, occupancy was recorded at 72.0% in December 2013, a slight fall of 0.2 percentage points on the same month last year. The annual success follows a series of high points for 2013: • The highest rates for February since records began with a monthly city centre average of 79% assisted by various sporting and music events as well as national exhibitions • A record August – traditionally a quiet month – where the monthly city centre average occupancy rate was recorded at 77%, up from 66% in August 2012. The Ashes, Manchester Pride, and several major international conferences all contributed • Two major achievements in November, with the highest ever recorded city centre weekend rate at 93% and one of the highest overall month averages for the city centre at 87%

Airport passenger numbers

(+1.3%)

– a rate achieved only once before, in November 2006. The Rugby League World Cup Final and Manchester Christmas Markets were key attractors. With Manchester recently being named as one of the top growth markets for hotel rooms outside of London in the next three years, with over 1,600 rooms expected in the city centre alone by 2016, growth of this sector looks set to continue. Airport Passenger Numbers Manchester Airport handled 1.3 million passengers in November 2013, 17,300 (1.3%) higher than 12 months previously. Month-on-month passenger numbers have fallen, as would be expected for the time of year, from nearly 1.9 million in October 2013, a decrease of 30.0% (550,000). The growth in passenger numbers between November 2012 and November 2013 at Manchester Airport was higher than that of Heathrow (0.5%), though lower than that seen at Gatwick, Stansted and Birmingham, which saw passenger numbers grow by 4.2%, 3.4%, and 6.0% respectively. The annual growth in passenger numbers is attributed to a strong winter season, with a wealth of new routes added, including to three Caribbean destinations. Thomas Cook has launched flights to Barbados, St Lucia and Antigua, making it the only airport outside of London to offer direct flights to St Lucia and Antigua. In addition, Aer Lingus increased capacity on its Manchester–Shannon route, by adding an extra daily flight. Monarch has also announced a continuation of year-round flights to Agadir from Manchester Airport.

Hotel occupancy (city centre)

1,315,414

72%

Flights

Hotel occupancy (GM)

(+0.1%)

11,416

71%

% represents year-on-year change

IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.

5 | Manchester Monitor – February 2014

(-0.2% pts)

(0.8% pts)


Housing Monitor Average house prices in Greater Manchester, December 2013

Trafford average = £184,357

200,000 180,000

England & Wales average = £167,353

160,000 140,000

Oldham average = £80,334

GM average = £104,507

120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000

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Ro ch da le

rd Sa lf o

an W ig

Bo lt o n

de Ta m es i

M M an ch es te r

G

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GM housing market shows slight growth The latest data from the Land Registry show that the average house in GM cost £104,507 in December 2013, an increase of 1.2% (£1,255) from this time last year, though lower than the growth seen in England & Wales of 4.4% (£7,063), to reach £167,353. House Prices Month-on-month, property prices in England & Wales grew 1.1% (£1,820) in December 2013, to reach £167,353. House prices in GM also saw a month-on-month rise of 0.4% (£451) in December 2013 to £104,507. The Land Registry data show that house prices in the North West grew more slowly month-on-month than those in GM to December (0.3%, £308), but faster on an annual basis (1.7%, £1,854). At a GM local authority level, five districts saw house prices rise between December 2012 and December 2013: Manchester (7.5%, £6,767), Oldham (1.6%, £1,270), Stockport (1.2%, 1,676), Tameside (2.3%, £2,061) and Trafford (2.1%, £3,796). The other five districts all saw declines, with the largest coming in Salford (2.9%, or £2,623), Rochdale (2.7%, £2,446) and Bolton (2.5%, £2,241).

Bury and Wigan both saw marginal declines of 0.5% (£563 and £435, respectively). Overall, the data suggest that GM’s housing market is starting to show some signs of growth, but that this is unevenly spread across the conurbation. House sales Land Registry house sales data reveal that there were 2,665 properties sold in GM in October 2013, a monthly increase of 9.6% (233). This compared favourably to the picture in the North West (5.9%, 410) and nationally (7.0%, 4,705). Year-on-year, house sales in GM have risen by 16.9% (386). This is proportionately lower than both the North West and national picture, where house sales have risen 19.5% (1,197) and 21.5% (12,716), respectively.

Manchester Monitor – February 2014 | 6


Crime Monitor Assault Attendances Across GM 12,800 12,600 12,400 12,200 12,000 11,800 11,600 11,400 11,200 11,000 10,800 Oct-10

Feb-11

June-11

Oct-11

Feb-12

Jun-12

Oct-12

Feb-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Rolling 12 month total

Year-on-year rise in assault patients The latest figures in relation to assault attendances at each of GM’s eight hospital trusts’ local emergency departments show that there has been a year-on-year rise in the number of people being treated for assaults over the last twelve months. Assaults Data

Crime Comparator data

Baseline data for the 12 months ending November 2013 show that at least 12,334 people were treated for assaultrelated injuries over the last 12 months in GM hospitals, an increase of 7.8% on the figures from the previous year. This total represents the highest rolling figure since May 2011, and follows a trend wherein figures have been increasing since November 2012, particularly in Oldham and Rochdale.

Crime comparator data show that for the year ending September 2013 there were 66.4 crimes committed in GM per 1,000 population. Looking at similar forces in England and Wales, the figure is below that for West Yorkshire (73.1) and South Yorkshire (69.0), but above that of Merseyside (65.8), the West Midlands (62.9), and Northumbria (49.2).

Analysing the data in further detail, in the 12 months to November 2013, 51% (6,291) of assault patients were aged 15–29. The same demographic comprises just 21.5% of the GM resident population as a whole according to the latest ONS estimates, highlighting that 15–29 year olds remain particularly vulnerable to violence. However, the proportion of 15–29-year old victims is currently at its lowest level since 2009. In the period since then, the proportion of assault victims aged under 15 has risen from 4.8% to the current high of 5.2%, 30–59-year olds has risen from a 2009 low of 37% to the current high of 40.9%, and those aged 60+ has also increased to a current high of 2.8%.

However, this should not disguise the positive trend within GM, with 4.8 fewer offences per 1,000 population for the year ending September 2013, an improvement larger than any comparable force. Fire comparator data Fire comparator data show that for April-December 2013 show that there were 27.10 arson incidents in GM per 10,000 population. Looking at similar fire & rescue services in England & Wales, the figure is below that for Merseyside (38.26), Tyne & Wear (36.39) and South Yorkshire (31.92), but above that of West Yorkshire (21.38), the West Midlands (17.18), and London (4.00).

NOTE: Assault data from Tameside Hospital NHS Foundation Trust is currently being validated and so is excluded from the analysis. 7 | Manchester Monitor – February 2014


Manchester Monitor - February 2014