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LCP executive group Key economic trends update - December 2012 Annie Hedges, Director of Policy

Cuts, regulation and income • Cuts to date: 3 year settlement of 2.5 + 5 + 5% but latest noises from Whitehall Æ bigger to come? • White Paper next Spring on the future of regulation, but will it mean… – Positive trends continue (emphasis on regional regulation, light-touch resources checks)? – Newly created regulators bare their teeth?

• Since power of general competence introduced: moderate income generated e.g. from cultural activities. But should/can we be more ambitious?

Latest results from community survey •

Views split regarding cuts to date: – 42 per cent understand the Council is doing the best it can in tough circumstances. – 56 per cent think too much money spent on management and welfare benefits. – Examples of hostile responses (e.g. protests) to cuts in particular areas e.g. libraries.

• • • •

Substantial minority (34 per cent) unwilling to pay any more in Council Tax. Three in ten (29 per cent) worried about the gap between rich and poor. Majority (52 per cent) agree with the statement ‘people are too dependent on help from the state and need to stand on their own two feet’. Large proportion (63 per cent) say that, if asked, they’d be willing to volunteer for a local cause, but this skewed towards younger and more affluent residents.

Wider context •

Unemployment across Britain has continued to rise in last three years > International Labour Organisation (ILO) measure which includes those seeking work but not claiming benefits shows rate has peaked nationally at just under 4 million.

Unemployment is rising at a faster rate in London than anywhere else in the country. – 2012 Olympics come to an end – public sector jobs lost to continued cut backs in spend – posts moving away from the capital.

Less disparity in rates of employment across the capital partly due to Olympics.

Number of NEETs has fallen by 10 per cent across the capital since 2008 (but a ‘blip’ because the Games?).

House prices in a slow but consistent recovery in the capital since the Great Recession. Predicted to be a final figure of 7-9 per cent growth for the 2010-2013 period.

London futures challenges, Thornham scenario analysis of economic trends  

London futures challenges scenario, analysis of economic trends in the London Borough of Thornham, 2012