NEWS June 2008 NATIONAL CENTRE FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC MODELLING ISSN NO. 1320 0046 ISSUE #30
Housing dream under threat Housing affordability worsened substantially throughout Australia and for most cross-sections of the Australian population between 1995–96 and 2005–06. This occurred against the backdrop of a housing boom, when the rise in house prices far outpaced the growth in incomes of everyday Australians. As the figure shows, average earnings increased by little more than twofold between 1986 and 2007, while house prices increased fivefold.
Trends in income and house prices since 1986 1989
600 Group household 11% 500
2004 Group household 11%
Still in parental home 12%
Still in parental home 19%
Single 9% Housing price index
Single 8% Sole 400 parent 3%
Couple only 24%
Sole parent 7%
Couple only 32%
Couple with children 22%
200 Couple with children 42%
Average earmings index 1989
Source: Issue 19, AMP, NATSEM Income and Wealth Report.
Analysis undertaken for issue 19 of AMP. NATSEM Income and Wealth Report,
young people with lower incomes buying into
Overall, this report shows that it became
Wherever I lay my debt, that’s my home,
a rising market. If this trend continues, more
much harder for the average Australian to get
found that a household would need about
people are likely to have mortgages for a
into the housing market over the decade. As
seven to eight times annual after-tax income in
longer time and to retire before paying off their
to be expected, those worst affected were the
2005–06 to purchase outright a house costing
mortgages. One of the findings in this report
socioeconomically disadvantaged, such as the
typically $350 000. It would have needed
is that the proportion of people over 60 years
poor, the unemployed and sole parents.
only five times its after-tax income in 1995–96
of age with a mortgage more than doubled
when the same house would have cost about
from 1995–96 to 2005–06—from 4.2 per cent
$140 000. The rise in house prices is pushing
to 9.5 per cent. What this may mean is that
more and more households into ‘housing
retirees use some of their superannuation to
stress’. That is, more households today
pay off their mortgages, which eats into their
spend in excess of 30 per cent of their after-
The report was prepared by Robert Tanton, Binod Nepal and Ann Harding and can be found at www.amp.com.au/ampnatsemreports
tax income on housing costs such as rents, rates and mortgages than a decade ago. Associated with this has been a declining trend in outright home ownership. Between 1995–96 and 2005–06, outright home ownership (when the person owns the home and has no mortgage) dropped from 43 per cent to 34 per cent of households. On a positive note, however, total home ownership (owners both with and without mortgages) has remained almost stable at around 70 per cent. This means that more households today have mortgages than was the case a decade ago. The increased pressure faced by recent first home purchasers is reflected in the fact that nearly two out of three (62 per cent) are in housing stress. They are most likely to be
December 2007 Steering Committe meeting for the ‘Assessing the Social and Fiscal Implications of an Ageing Population’ project, being conducted by NATSEM and 12 Commonwealth agencies with Australian Research Council funding. Two international experts in dynamic microsimulation modelling addressed the Committee, Professor Ruth Hancock, now of the University of East Anglia (2nd from left) and Rick Morrison, from Human Resources and Social Development Canada (10th from left).
FROM HEAD THE DIRECTOR’S A DESK About 1000 Australians recently participated in the Australia 2020 Summit, with around 100 in the ‘Strengthening Communities, Supporting Families and Social Inclusion’ stream. The participants in this stream, of whom I was one, concluded after two days of very active debate that one of the key goals for the Rudd Government should be to develop a National Action Plan for Social Inclusion. It was expected that this plan would include evidencebased goals and measurable targets, against which the government could report progress annually. This proposal reflected the increasing realisation in Australia that social exclusion and the consequent waste of human potential are bad for the country and the economy, as well as for those individuals suffering from it. There has been a strong push in recent years towards early intervention and prevention, particularly for children. This has been prompted by research that shows that deprivation in one generation is likely to pass down to the next. A closely related proposal from the summit was to create a National Development Index, intended to be a much broader measure of wellbeing than such widely used measures as ‘gross domestic product per capita’. The intent is to capture different domains of wellbeing in a summary index, rather than focus on the total monetary income of the country. Again, this reflected the view that, while cash income is a very important resource for families, other factors are also important— such as affordable access to adequate health, education and childcare services or reduced inequalities in health status apparent for those from different socioeconomic groups. The above proposals have been put before the new federal government and, if the proposals are accepted in some form, there will be significant work to be undertaken to establish what any new social inclusion targets and measures should be. Similarly, establishing a summary index of national development that is broadly accepted by the community is not a simple task.
in developing performance measures for social inclusion.
Professor Ann Harding, Director of NATSEM, Professor Ann Sanson, University of Melbourne & Network Coordinator, Australian Research Alliance for Children & Youth, and Senator Ursula Stephens, Parliamentary Secretary for Social Inclusion and the Voluntary Sector, at the Australia 2020 Summit, Parliament House, Canberra, 19–20 April 2008.
However, recent international efforts provide some guidance for Australia. For example, the Innocenti Research Centre established by UNICEF recently published a report card on child wellbeing in rich countries. It provided a pioneering, comprehensive picture of child wellbeing considering six dimensions. Another inspiring example comes from the United Kingdom, where the Labour government has made considerable progress in developing indicators of social exclusion and reporting progress against those indicators. As then Prime Minister Tony Blair wrote in the preface to the most recent (2006) plan, Reaching out: an action plan on social exclusion. The plan reflected the government’s realisation that ‘About 2.5 per cent of every generation seem to be stuck in a lifetime of disadvantage. Their problems are multiple, entrenched and often passed down through generations’ (p. 3). Apart from the challenges that lie ahead for Australia in deciding on the exact nature of any possible social inclusion goals and measures, a further challenge is presented by data. We cannot tell if progress is being made towards a goal if we have no data to measure such progress by.
In early July we will be releasing the latest version of our child social exclusion index, which has been updated to incorporate the 2006 census data. This index is unusual in that it provides a small area or geographic measure, rather than a national measure, and is specifically targeted towards children. In August this will be complemented by analysis of whether child social exclusion became more or less geographically concentrated between 2001 and 2006. Also in July we will also be presenting new evidence about changes in such important indicators as joblessness and income at a small area level between the 2001 and 2006 Censuses—research that has emphasised again to me the need to complement the national picture with small area brushstrokes. And, finally, microsimulation modelling is likely to play a significant role in fleshing out some of the reform proposals put forward at the 2020 summit. One of the key recommendations emerging from the ‘Future of the Australian Economy’ stream, for example, was the need for an urgent review of state and federal taxes, which would include addressing negative interactions with the welfare system. The government has responded quickly to this suggestion, establishing in the recent May federal budget a comprehensive tax review headed by Treasury Secretary Ken Henry. But hard numbers about likely winners, losers and costs to government and consumers will be required before policymakers reach final decisions about possible tax reforms. Ann Harding
NATSEM’s research is expected to contribute in many areas of this debate. We regularly ‘mine’ the latest microdata releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to explore how the nation as a whole is progressing in such areas as housing stress, working poverty, and income inequality. But much of our recent research has also shown the importance of digging below the national summary averages, to look at how different geographic regions are faring. And it has become clear that a spatial or small area perspective will also be important
Professor Peter Shergold, Chief Executive of the Centre for Social Impact at the University of New South Wales, and Professor Ann Harding, Director of NATSEM, at the Australia 2020 Summit, Parliament House, Canberra, 19–20 April 2008.
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS RSV IN AUSTRALIA Timely information about the impact of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has emerged from a NATSEM project to estimate the burden of disease associated with RSV in Australia. Abbott Australasia commissioned NATSEM to undertake this independent research. RSV is a common, yet often unrecognised, cause of bronchiolitis and pneumonia in children, usually presenting during winter and early spring. Globally, an estimated 64 million cases of infection and 160 000 deaths a year are attributed to RSV. Possibly due to similarity in clinical presentation and overlap of season, RSV is often classified as influenza. There is an increasing volume of literature emerging from the USA and Europe of the burden associated with RSV. Yet in Australia, to date there has not been any effort to systematically collect information on the occurrence of RSV. Through this study Geetha Ranmuthugala has reviewed available literature to estimate the burden of disease attributed to RSV in Australia, and to scope the possibility of examining the cost effectiveness of primary prevention through vaccination. Out of the study the researchers identified a number of key points on RSV.
help in the implementation and assessment of preventive programs (including vaccination and indentifying infants most likely to benefit from current prophylaxis options). Further details will be available from the full report due to be released shortly.
eventually, researchers with better access to the model’s functions. Work has also begun on adding disability and health modules and developing the model’s base population, which is built on a 1 per cent sample of the 2006 Census.
Once the core demographic and economic
Intensive work has continued on the
functions are completed, the focus will shift to
development of APPSIM, NATSEM’s new
assessing and improving their individual and
dynamic microsimulation model. When
joint reliability and, finally, to adding in policy
completed, APPSIM will simulate the impact
levers, such as taxation and income support.
of Australian policy responses to projected
Over the past few months, the APPSIM
changes, such as population ageing.
team has benefited from having several
APPSIM is a five-year project, with funding
very experienced dynamic modellers visit
provided under an ARC (Australian Research
NATSEM—Mr Rick Morrison from Human
Council) linkage project, with partners from 12
Resources and Social Development Canada,
federal government departments. Additional
Professor Ruth Hancock from the University
funding to extend the project is being provided
of Essex and Mr Trevor Huddleston from
by the University of Canberra, and a further
the UK Department of Work and Pensions.
ARC grant has been awarded to enhance the
They shared their experiences in developing
model’s health capabilities.
and maintaining similar large and complex models, and provided valuable insights into
Work to date has focused on researching
these models being used internationally.
and constructing the core modelling structures
For information about APPSIM, please
needed to simulate Australian life cycles.
contact Professor Ann Harding by
Recently work has concentrated on
phone (02 6210 2780) or
incorporating labour force details, education
processes, earnings estimates, refining earlier RSV is highly contagious and strict infection control practice is important in hospital settings to minimise cross infection. Systematic data collection is necessary to
estimates of fertility and providing output
SMALL AREA NEEDS-BASED PLANNING
statistics. An initial interface for the model has
Much attention has been given to the likely
also been built, to provide developers and,
fiscal implications at the national level of Australia’s ageing population in a series of major government reports. Yet population
Key points on RSV with particular
• Prophylactic monoclonal antibody
relevance for Australia
therapy is recommended for high risk
• Between 118 045 to 226 028 cases
newborns and infants.
of RSV occur annually in Australia in children aged less than one year.
• It is estimated that up to 40% of hospital admissions for pneumonia
ageing will also have profound effects at local levels, with some areas of Australia likely to face strong demand for aged care services and declining demand for school facilities.
• There is only one monoclonal antibody product currently registered in Australia.
NATSEM is progressing well on research being undertaken as part of an ARC linkage project to develop needs-based planning
• While vaccine is available for influenza,
indicators for small areas and to examine the
and up to 90% of admissions for
there is still no vaccine that induces
likely characteristics and service requirements
bronchiolitis in Australia are due
active immunity in humans against
of households living within different local
RSV. A couple of vaccines are currently
areas in 20 years time. This project blends
being tested for clinical safety
NATSEM’s spatial microsimulation technology
with additional census data, and is being
• The peak season in Australia is around July.
• The direct annual cost to the Australian health care system is estimated to be between $32 million and $62 million.
• Naturally acquired immunity is not long lasting.
conducted with the NSW Department of Community Services, the Victorian Department of Planning and Community Development and Victorian Department of
• No surveillance system is in place to
Education and Early Childhood, Queensland
systematically measure and examine
Treasury, the Queensland Department of the
RSV activity in Australia. NATSEM NEWS
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Premier and Cabinet, the ACT Chief Minister’s Department and the Australian Bureau of Statistics as our partners. In 2007 a series of needs-based planning workshops were held in Canberra, Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney, to allow government policymakers and planners to identify what needs-based planning indicators they would find most useful. In 2008 a number of variables from the ABS Census were made available on a trial basis to the linkage partners through an online mapping system. We hope to have other variables available to the public in the near future, including our child social exclusion indexes and our microsimulated data. Further inquiries about this research can be made to Rob Tanton by phone (02 6201 2769) or email: firstname.lastname@example.org. THE GEOGRAPHY OF ADVANTAGE AND DISADVANTAGE
The researchers and Chief Investigators (CIs) of the ARC-funded ‘Opportunity and Disadvantage’ project, in which the Australian Bureau of Statistics is also a research partner, attended a meeting on 29 April: (from left to right) Rebecca Cassells from NATSEM; CI Professor Hal Kendig from the University of Sydney, convenor of the ‘Ageing Well’ ARC research network; Dr Justine McNamara from NATSEM, CI Professor Fiona Stanley from the Telethon Institute for Child Health Research, convenor of the ‘Future Generation’ ARC research network; CI Dr Sharon Goldfeld from the Centre for Community Child Health; CI Professor Ann Harding from NATSEM; CI Robert Tanton from NATSEM; and CI Professor Bob Stimson from the University of Queensland, convenor of the ARC ‘Spatially Integrated Social Science’ network.
Small area measures of advantage and disadvantage are being developed by NATSEM and will be made widely available to researchers across Australia, under a five-year ARC-funded project. The project combines expertise from NATSEM and three of the ARC Research Networks. After the rapid rollout
Inquiries about research work focused on
the prices of these utilities. In addition, the
concession modelling can be directed to
department can estimate the revenue of utility
Quoc Ngu Vu by phone (02 6201 2790) or
suppliers under various concession scenarios.
All of these simulations can be generated by departmental staff via a user-friendly
interface—just by clicking and pointing for the
In December 2007 the STINMOD team
current year and for five years into the future.
released the latest source code and interface
disadvantage, by fusing the 2006 census XCP
NATSEM originally developed this static
versions of NATSEM’s static microsimulation
tables for small areas with the confidentialised
microsimulation model for the department in
model, identified as STINMOD07. STINMOD
unit record files from the 2002–03 and the
1997, and made improvements and updates
quantifies the distributional and revenue
2003–04 ABS Survey of Income and Housing
to the model in 2002 and 2005. The 2007
effects of changes in income tax and social
Costs. The new variables for statistical local
update incorporated new data from the 2007
security policy. Under the most recent
areas will be made available through the
Victorian Utility Survey to create new basefiles
agreement with the federal government
website of the ARC Research Network for
for the period 2006–07 to 2011–12. Also
agencies that commission the update and
Spatially Integrated Social Science.
incorporated were client-specified options
maintenance of STINMOD, NATSEM is
of the 2006 census data by the ABS, the project is currently concentrating on creating small area estimates of poverty and housing
concession and/or the type of recipient and
and improvements to the functionality of
now releasing one source code version of
VICTORIAN CONCESSIONS MODEL
the model each year rather than two. This
In 2007 the Victorian Department of Human
The Victorian Concessions Model was further
Services commissioned NATSEM to again
extended to include ambulance services. This
update the Victorian Concessions Model. This
was done as part of a project commissioned
model allows the department to estimate the
by the Victorian Department of Treasury and
costs and the distributional impact of various
Finance to contribute to a review of the costs
concession scenarios that could apply to
associated with concession cards in Victoria.
four types of utilities—electricity, gas, water
As part of the work for Department of Treasury
and rates—within the Victorian households.
and Finance, NATSEM provided 15-year
Examples of the scenarios include changing
projections of concession cardholder numbers
the concession rates, the period of
change has been made to better match the release of the model to the budget cycle work undertaken by the source code users. The single release also permits more time for NATSEM to undertake necessary quality assurance processes, particularly for the complex adjustments involved with government policy changes in each new version.
CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS In STINMOD07 the outyears basefiles were
NEXT INTERNATIONAL MICROSIMULATION ASSOCIATION CONFERENCE
created from the 2002–03 and the 2003–04
The 2nd General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association (IMA) will be held
ABS Survey of Income and Housing Costs.
in Ottawa, Canada, 8–10 June 2009. Please put this date in your diaries. The call for papers
These basefiles were updated to the latest
is expected in June 2008.
available demographic, administrative and other social and economic data, and cover the period December 2007 to June 2013.
If you are not already a member of IMA, you can join the announcements list www.microsimulation.org/IMA/IMA_Membership.htm to be kept up to date with all new developments.
An important enhancement of STINMOD07 is the incorporation of data on the population living in non-private dwellings. This population includes people in institutions such as homes for the aged and disabled derived from the 1 per cent household sample of 2001 Census. Several improvements to the interface version
NATSEM staff will soon be presenting
WHERE HAVE ALL THE CHILDREN
papers at two international conferences
GONE? TREND IN CHILDLESSNESS
and one national conference. For further
AMONG PROFESSIONAL WOMEN
information about these papers, contact
the author(s) by phone (02 6201 2780) or email (email@example.com.
Authors: Riyana Miranti, Justine
edu.au). After the conferences have
McNamara, Robert Tanton & Mandy Yap
As part of the annual release the STINMOD
been held, the papers will be available
Do professional women in the cities
team provided an opportunity for the user
from NATSEM’s website
experience different rates of childlessness
group to meet and discuss the changes
to their counterparts living elsewhere?
made in this version and highlight ongoing
Research shows that fertility rates for
were also introduced with STINMOD07.
work on the model. This meeting was held in March 2008. The team is currently preparing the basefile for the next version of STINMOD. The source code version of STINMOD08 is due to be released in October and the interface version in November.
Australian Population Association Conference, Alice Springs, 30 June–3 July 2008 www.nt.gov.au/ntt/apa2008 DEVELOPMENT OF A DYNAMIC MICROSIMULATION MODEL TO
Annie Abello, Quoc Ngu Vu and Alicia
INVESTIGATE HOW TO BEST COMPRESS
Payne are the key researchers updating and
MORBIDITY IN OLDER AUSTRALIANS
developing STINMOD. Technical support is
AND OPTIMISE AGEING
provided by Principal Research Fellow Richard Percival. Jeannie McLellan leads the project.
Authors: Laurie Brown, Ann Harding, Sophie Pennec, Heather Booth &
As well as being available to undertake
commissioned research work using the STINMOD source code version, NATSEM
NATSEM and the Australian National University
is able to provide access to the interface
are part of a larger research collaboration
version through a licence arrangement.
working to develop a dynamic microsimulation
To inquire about such a licence, contact
model as part of the DYNOPTA (Dynamic
Vu by phone (02 6201 2790) or email:
Analyses to Optimize Ageing) Project. The
model is being constructed to establish a
To inquire about commissioning research
demographic modelling infrastructure that
work, contact Jeannie by phone
can be used to simulate the health and social
(02 6201 2759) or email:
outcomes of the baby boomer and aged
cohorts and examine the impact of possible social and medical interventions to compress morbidity and optimise ageing in Australia over the next 20 years.
women with higher education are lower than for women less well educated. There is also evidence that professional women may have more difficulty combining work and family responsibilities, which then may result in lower fertility rates among these women. This paper examines childlessness, particularly among women in elite professional groups, by using three different Censuses—1986, 1996 and 2006. DEMENTIA-FREE LIFE EXPECTANCY IN AUSTRALIA Authors: Binod Nepal, Laurie Brown & Geetha Ranmuthugala With the rapid ageing of Australia’s population, dementia has become an important population health concern for the community and policymakers. It is estimated that more than 200 000 Australians are living with dementia. This paper estimates life expectancy with and without dementia among Australian males and females in later life. The analysis was performed by applying the life table technique, which integrates mortality and morbidity statistics to derive a single population health indicator. Observed prevalence rates were used to calculate life expectancy with dementia.
PROJECTING THE PREVALENCE AND
International Association for Research
COSTS OF TYPE-2 DIABETES WITH
in Income and Wealth 30th General
TO THE AUSTRALIAN INDIGENOUS
AN AGEING POPULATION
Conference, Slovenia, 24–30 August 2008 http://www.stat.si/Iariw2008
POPULATION AND RETURNS TO EDUCATION
Authors: Linc Thurecht, Laurie Brown & Mandy Yap
Authors: Binod Nepal, Laurie Brown & Mandy Yap
Type-2 diabetes is a common, chronic health condition that imposes a significant burden
A GROWING GAP? TRENDS IN ECONOMIC WELLBEING AT THE TOP OF THE SPECTRUM IN AUSTRALIA
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders are
on affected individuals and significant costs
perhaps the most disadvantaged group in
on the health system. Within Australia it is
Australian society. The extent of disadvantage
estimated that more than one million people
experienced by the Indigenous population is
aged 25 years and over have the disease.
How are the rich faring in Australia? This
reflected in the statistics on a wide range of
Despite the significant burden and cost
paper examines the characteristics of the
social and economic indicators, particularly
associated with the disease, type-2 diabetes
top 10 per cent of the income spectrum and
the 17-year gap in life expectancy and low
occurs largely as a result of modifiable
looks at trends in their income and wealth
employment and income. The research
over the 10 years from 1995–96 to 2005–06.
reported in this paper focuses on adults aged under 65. It compares life-time employment and labour income of Indigenous Australians with other Australians disaggregated by level of education. The study provides an insight on the socioeconomic gaps between Indigenous and other Australians and the benefits of attaining higher education. MODELLING DEMOGRAPHICS WITHIN APPSIM, THE NEW AUSTRALIAN DYNAMIC MICROSIMULATION MODEL Authors: Sophie Pennec & Bruce Bacon
This paper presents a population-based model that projects the changing age structure and risk profile of the Australian population over a 45-year period. The model provides policy developers with the capacity to evaluate the potential impact that a hypothesised prevention or intervention
Authors: Quoc Ngu Vu, Ann Harding & Richard Percival
It reveals some interesting changes in the characteristics of the top end, including that the wealthy in Queensland and Victoria are gaining ground on those in New South Wales. It also compares Australia with other European countries and finds that Australia ranks in the middle of the EU15 in its richness index.
program might achieve, including the relative cost and benefits of alternative strategies. European Network for Housing Research Conference, Dublin, 6–9 July 2008
NATSEM CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT
http://www.enhr2008.com CREATING SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA
As in most developed countries, Australia has
CHILDREN IN HOUSING DISADVANTAGE
an ageing population. The change in the age
IN AUSTRALIA: A SMALL AREA ANALYSIS
structure of the population will result in greater
FOR SMALL AREAS Canberra, 19 September 2008
demand for health services and aged care,
Authors: Rebecca Cassells, Justine
as these people reach the age range of high
McNamara & Robert Tanton
disability. Developing the capacity to examine
Research has shown that where and how a
the distributional effects of both demographic
child lives is a crucial aspect of their current
changes and policy changes is the goal of
and future wellbeing. This research looks
the new Australian dynamic microsimulation
at the spatial and demographic patterns
of children living in housing disadvantage
The paper deals with the main features
of this new model, emphasising the core
Housing disadvantage is determined by
demographic modules and will describe
combining several indicators, including
some of the proposed innovative features
overcrowding, public housing and housing
of the new model (potentially a linked
stress, to form a housing disadvantage index
macrosimulation model that will be used to
for Australian children at a disaggregated
align key demographic and other processes
geographic level. Both the composite index
to external benchmark data).
and the individual indicators that are used
NATSEM is hosting a one day conference Creating socio-economic data for small
to create it are analysed to identify spatial differences in housing disadvantage for Australian children. As part of the index creation, innovative spatial microsimulation
areas: methods and outcomes, to showcase a broad range of examples of the latest developments in small area estimation and spatial microsimulation. Speakers will be presenting on the latest techniques and findings covering such examples as small area health, literacy, and poverty estimates. The program includes presentations on NATSEM’s spatial microsimulation models of poverty and disability. It will also feature Professor Mark Birkin from the University of Leeds on the MOSES spatial microsimulation model and its use in transport planning and Dr Kimberly Procter, also from the University of Leeds, on SimObesity, a spatial microsimulation model of small area childhood obesity.
techniques are used to produce synthetic estimates of housing stress in Australia
For further information, email
at a small area level, as this measure is
not otherwise available at a high level of spatial disaggregation.
RECENT PUBLICATIONS AND PAPERS OTHER PUBLICATIONS Morrison, R, Validation of longitudinal
NATSEM SEMINARS Statistics Social Statistics Group Seminar
Adjunct Associate Professor David Cullen,
Series, Canberra, 1 May 2008.
Executive Director, Health Policy Taskforce, Department of Health and Ageing, ‘The
microsimulation models: DYNACAN practices
Thiébaut, S, ‘Will healthy aging save the
and plans, Working Paper no. 8, NATSEM,
French medical public insurance system?’,
Canberra, March 2008. (WP8)
National Institute for Health and Medical
Morrison, T & Kelly, S, Superannuation—the right balance?, report prepared for CPA Australia, CPA, Australia, February 2008. (OP54)
Dr Mark Clements, National Centre for
in Quantitative Economics, Regional
Epidemiology and Population Health,
Centre for Disease Control, Institute for
Australian National University, ‘Modelling for
Public Economics, NATSEM, Canberra,
cervical cancer screening in the context of
26 March 2008.
HPV vaccination’, 2 April 2008. Mr Trevor Huddleston, UK Department of
I lay my debt, that’s my home: trends in
housing affordability and housing stress,
NATSEM Income and Wealth Report, AMP, Sydney, March 2008. (OP57) PRESENTATIONS AND PAPERS
Work and Pensions and the use of models in the policy process’, 21 April 2008.
www.natsem.canberra.edu.au. It contains all of NATSEM’s published reports and many of the presentations given by staff
government funds for Australia’s ageing
2008, Canberra, 19 February 2008. (P120)
Dr Philip Clarke, School of Public Health, University of Sydney, ‘Using utilities derived from the EQ-5D as predictors of outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes’, 22 May 2008.
The sequence numbers listed with the publications above (e.g. OP 54 or P120) can be used to easily access that publication
Payne, A, ‘Honey I calculated the kids—costs
online. Simply type the sequence number in
of children in Australia in 2007’, presentation
the search engine in the online publications
to the ACT Branch of the Economics Society,
database to retrieve that entry.
NATSEM VISITING FELLOWSHIPS We are pleased to announce that the 2008 Visiting Fellowships have been won by:
Canberra, 27 February 2008. (no paper) Harding, A, ‘The financial future for
policy development in the UK Department of
can be accessed at our website
at conferences and to government and
Population Policy and Planning Conference
Work and Pensions, ‘Current and future
NATSEM’s publications database
Brown, L, ‘Prioritisation and distribution of population’, presentation to the Ageing
28 February 2008.
Research, National Research Centre
Tanton, R, Nepal, B & Harding, A, Wherever
1995–96 to 2005–06, issue no. 19, AMP.
financial implications of ageing for individuals,
WANT TO KNOW THE LATEST?
Professor Mark Birkin from the University
governments and older people’, presentation
Are you interested in keeping up to date
of Leeds (who developed spatial
to the Home and Community Care (HACC)
on such topics as:
microsimulation models for the UK);
National Forum, Melbourne, 22 February 2008. (P119) Harding, A, ‘Effective tax rates in Australia
• income inequality
Dr Kimberly Procter, also of the University of Leeds (who developed the SimObesity
spatial microsimulation model); and
today: an overview and some issues’,
presentation to the Committee for Economic
of Waikato (who is part of a major
• distributional impacts of government
research project on Enhancing Wellbeing
Development of Australia (CEDA) conference, Canberra, 12 March 2008. (P121)
services Harding, A, ‘The challenge of creating sound
Dr Michael Cameron from the University
in an Ageing Society).
• changes to the tax–transfer system
NATSEM is now calling for applications
social policy: how microsimulation models can help policymakers’, presentation to the
• the future shape of Australian society?
international academics and professionals
If so, join NATSEM’s free email listing and
keen to further their research in the field
receive automatic notification of all new
of microsimulation. It is envisaged that the
Visiting Fellow would normally spend around
Productivity Commission Seminar Series, Canberra, 8 April 2008. Harding, A, ‘Microsimulation, microdata,
two to eight weeks working at NATSEM
and income distribution’, presentation to the Mongolian Ministry of Social Welfare and Labour ‘Capacity Building in Performance Outcome Monitoring and Evaluation’ program
for two Visiting Fellowships in 2009 from
To join, email ‘subscribe’ to hotline@natsem.
on a mutually agreed area of research.
For further information go to www.natsem.canberra.edu.au
study tour to Australia, NATSEM, Canberra, 10 April 2008. Harding, A, ‘How ABS statistics underpin microsimulation models and social policy’, presentation to the Australian Bureau of NATSEM NEWS
NATSEM UPDATE NEW STAFF WELCOMED Anna Sutiyono joined NATSEM as Business Manager in January 2008. Prior to this she was the Business Manager (Marketing and International) in the Division of Development and International at the University of Canberra. Anna has responsibility for NATSEM’s
ABOUT NATSEM Lucie Marshall became NATSEM’s
The National Centre for Social and Economic
Administration Assistant in April 2008, after
Modelling, an affiliated research centre of the
graduating from the Australian National
University of Canberra, has an international
University with a Bachelor of Arts (Visual).
reputation as a centre of excellence for
Her duties include providing administrative
analysing microdata and constructing
support and assistance to research staff and
microsimulation models. Its work is funded
the Business Manager. She also assists the
through research grants and consultancy
Director of NATSEM, Professor Ann Harding.
income. For further information, log onto
financial management systems, assets and physical resources. She oversees the delivery of administrative support to the research staff and coordinates the human resource management aspects of the centre’s operations. Andrew Armstrong, a psychologist and social scientist, commenced with NATSEM as a Senior Research Officer in April 2008. He is investigating socioeconomic differentials in health and disability status using microdata analysis and microsimulation modelling. He is also examining possible distributional impacts of changes in government policy on individuals and households, the impacts of population ageing on the use and cost of health services and aged care, and trends in risk factors and
NATSEM’s website. STAFF FAREWELLED
NATSEM aims to be a key contributor to
We recently farewelled Charlotte Copeland
social and economic policy debate and
and Julia Friedewald and thanked them for
analysis in Australia, by developing models of
their contributions to NATSEM.
the highest quality, undertaking independent
Sharyn Lymer has taken leave from her
and impartial research, and supplying valued
position as Senior Research Fellow after
accepting an ARC Australian Postgraduate
In a large proportion of NATSEM’s research,
Award (Industry) PhD scholarship, supported
analysis typically begins by looking at
by NATSEM’s linkage partner, the Department
either the characteristics or the impact of a
of Health and Ageing. Sharyn’s award also
policy change on an individual household,
includes a NATSEM Top-Up Scholarship. Her
building up to the bigger picture by looking
APAI award is linked to the health modelling
at many individual cases through the use
research being undertaken by NATSEM in the
of large datasets.
APPSIM project. NATSEM’S EXECUTIVE NATSEM STAFF RECEIVES PHD
Binod Nepal was awarded his PhD in Andrew has previously worked as a research
Demography from the Australian National
psychologist for the Australian Council for
(02) 6201 2780
University in December 2007. His thesis is
Educational Research, a researcher for the
titled ‘AIDS in Asia: population perspectives
Australian Institute of Family Studies and for
on HIV’. Congratulations go to Binod.
Jeannie McLellan Deputy Director
the Mental Illness Fellowship Victoria. Andrew
(02) 6201 2759
also spent four years tutoring at Swinburne
University of Technology in the Faculty of
A full listing of NATSEM staff, their contact
details and profiles are available on
Yogi Vidyattama is now a Senior Research
Officer at NATSEM. He is a PhD candidate
in Economics at the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National
TO CONTACT NATSEM
University, Canberra, where he holds a Vice-
Phone: (+61 2) 6201 2780
Chancellor’s scholarship. His dissertation is
titled ‘The pattern of Indonesia’s provincial
Economic and Social Research, University Dr Binod Nepal
assistant at the Research School of Pacific and Asia Studies, Australian National University (2005–2008), and was a tutor at the Crawford School of Economics and Governance, Australian National University.
EMPLOYEE OF THE QUARTER Congratulations go to Binod Nepal and Robert Tanton, joint winners for the October– December quarter 2007, and to Geetha Ranmuthugala and Riyana Miranti, joint winners for the January–March quarter 2008.
University of Canberra ACT 2601 Australia
Previously he worked at the Institute of of Indonesia (1999–2004), was a research
(+61 2) 6201 2751
170 Haydon Drive Bruce ACT 2617