Page 1

South East

HOME TRUTHS 2012

The housing market in south east England


South East

More homes would boost our local economy We are simply not building enough homes in the South East. This lack of homes is affecting the lives of young people and families and holding back the regional economy. Last year in the South East, 39,000 new families formed1, but only 22,240 new homes were built2. Little more than half of the homes needed each year are being produced. The shortage of new homes keeps house prices high and pushes up mortgage deposit costs, locking people out of the housing market. With people unable to buy their own home more people are being pushed into the private rented sector, which in turn is driving up rents to increasingly unaffordable levels. And as costs soar in the private rented market, more pressure is heaped on the limited supply of social rented housing. The South East needs more homes across all housing sectors. We need suitable homes for the rapidly rising number of older people, and more affordable homes for younger families, including in rural areas where house prices are often particularly high compared to incomes. The South East is a powerhouse of the national economy, but its competitiveness and productivity are hampered by the shortage of new homes. The Government’s latest measures to speed up new development are helpful, but more action is needed to boost the regional economy and house people effectively.

2 | Home Truths 2012


HOME TRUTHS 2012

What the Government should do The Government and the whole housing industry need to take a long-term view, tackling the market difficulties with a joined-up approach. Addressing the lack of houses – the supply shortage – is crucial to ensure we have a healthy, sustainable, affordable housing market across all tenures (home ownership, private rent and social housing) that strengthens the economy in the South East and meets people’s aspirations rather than defeats them. Housing associations are ready and able to play their part and deliver more homes. The Government has recently put in place some welcome, important short-term measures, including a debt guarantee. But now broader, long-term solutions are needed. Housing associations could do much more if there was a ready supply of public land available to build on, if they had more certainty over rent levels after 2015 so they could raise the additional finance needed to build, and if red tape preventing them from using their homes and other assets flexibly and productively was cut.

To stem the urgent housing shortage, the National Housing Federation calls for: ■ The rapid release of publicly owned land to housing associations so they can build homes. For the quickest economic impact the Government must immediately release small parcels of brownfield sites, which can be delivered more quickly than larger sites. Each of these could be capable of delivering up to 100 new homes. Based on the Government’s own data3, we have already identified land across the country Home Truths 2012 | 3


South East

equivalent to just over two cities the size of Southampton that could be built on. ■ The Government should provide certainty on its longterm plans for investing in social housing. Currently housing associations are struggling to plan beyond 2015, when the current programme ends. Without certainty that there will be Government support for new homes, it is too high risk for housing associations to commit to new development. The Government could create some certainty by retaining the present rental formula for housing associations until 2020, allowing them to commit to delivering new homes in the future. ■ The Government must also cut red tape to allow housing associations to unleash their entrepreneurial skills. For example, housing associations need more freedom to be innovative in the use of their assets and their ability to raise finance. The flexibility to take an imaginative approach would allow housing associations to build more homes. ■ We know people want more homes built, and we need to encourage their voices to be heard above those of the NIMBYs. Public support for more homes is vital. That’s why we’ve launched our new campaign Yes to Homes. Visit www.yestohomes.co.uk to join the campaign.

4 | Home Truths 2012


HOME TRUTHS 2012

The evidence ■ House prices in the South East are expected to rise 22% by 2017, more than anywhere else in the country.4 ■ Private rents in the region are set to rise 55% over the next 10 years.4 ■ The average house price in rural parts of the region is now 13.6 times the average local income, compared to 11.3 times in more urban areas.5,6 ■ There were 225,250 households on social housing waiting lists in the South East in 2011, an increase of 73% in the last 10 years.7 ■ By 2033 the South East is expected to have a population of over 10m people, the largest regional population in the country.8 ■ The South East population aged over 65 is expected to grow by 57% by 2033. The population aged 85+ will increase by 130%.8

Sources 1. Household Projections, 2008 to 2033 Communities and Local Government 2010 2. Communities and Local Government Statistics 2012 3. National Land Use Database 4. Housing market analysis for National Housing Federation, Oxford Economics, August 2012 5. Land Registry data, 2011 6. Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), 2011 7. Communities and Local Government statistics, 2001, 2011 and 2012 8. 2008-based population projections and regional portrait of the South East, Office for National Statistics, 2010

Note The facts in this booklet use the latest available official government statistical sources at the time of going to print. In some areas, the National Housing Federation has carried out additional analysis to draw out the social and economic implications of the figures. The commentary is our own. Some of this data is © Crown copyright.

Home Truths 2012 | 5


South East Footnotes to tables 1. Land Registry, 2011. 2. Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), 2011. 3. Communities and Local Government Housing Statistics Live Tables. 4. Homes and Communities Agency, Regulatory and Statistical Return 2011. 5. Homes and Communities Agency Completions data, 2010/11. 6. Office for National Statistics model-based estimates of unemployment, year ending March 2012 (Crown Copyright reserved) 7. Valuation Office Agency rent officers' data, year ending March 2012

ENGLAND SOUTH EAST Bracknell Forest UA Brighton and Hove UA Isle of Wight UA Medway UA Milton Keynes UA Portsmouth UA Reading UA Slough UA Southampton UA West Berkshire UA Windsor and Maidenhead UA Wokingham UA Buckinghamshire Aylesbury Vale Chiltern South Bucks Wycombe East Sussex Eastbourne Hastings Lewes Rother Wealden Hampshire Basingstoke and Deane East Hampshire Eastleigh Fareham Gosport Hart Havant New Forest Rushmoor Test Valley Winchester Kent Ashford Canterbury Dartford Dover Gravesham Maidstone Sevenoaks Shepway Swale Thanet Tonbridge and Malling Tunbridge Wells Oxfordshire Cherwell Oxford South Oxfordshire Vale of White Horse West Oxfordshire Surrey Elmbridge Epsom and Ewell Guildford Mole Valley Reigate and Banstead Runnymede Spelthorne Surrey Heath Tandridge Waverley Woking West Sussex Adur Arun Chichester Crawley Horsham Mid Sussex Worthing

Average (mean) house prices 2011¹

Average (median) incomes 2011²

Gross annual income needed for a mortgage (75% at 3.5x)1,2

£236,518 £280,067 £264,806 £278,083 £203,385 £166,612 £198,970 £167,612 £224,506 £201,534 £173,055 £306,439 £426,463 £326,337 £356,314 £266,060 £455,569 £532,492 £327,562 £238,941 £198,688 £160,133 £269,808 £245,585 £283,836 £268,100 £248,261 £323,256 £229,710 £232,498 £166,219 £339,526 £208,547 £293,963 £212,031 £280,353 £360,464 £235,063 £219,179 £223,985 £202,894 £185,697 £205,109 £224,987 £401,975 £198,068 £179,030 £169,411 £294,471 £320,915 £307,660 £257,474 £358,513 £348,583 £291,560 £281,306 £393,966 £577,147 £352,750 £396,404 £413,389 £343,832 £372,231 £275,034 £333,465 £372,980 £422,022 £336,663 £268,245 £217,962 £232,655 £357,175 £200,502 £327,750 £297,742 £213,250

£21,346 £23,130 £26,146 £21,523 £18,782 £23,228 £23,629 £19,214 £22,178 £22,516 £19,474 £23,447 £31,070 £29,271 £24,970 £22,599 £27,830 £27,560 £24,757 £19,760 £18,138 £19,183 £21,008 £19,874 £21,892 £23,457 £26,000 £23,358 £22,859 £23,748 £19,859 £30,404 £20,800 £20,613 £23,514 £22,750 £26,036 £22,038 £20,795 £21,819 £24,726 £23,234 £21,648 £22,032 £22,703 £21,091 £21,918 £15,948 £24,206 £25,849 £23,426 £21,913 £22,792 £23,551 £24,648 £24,565 £27,503 £30,815 £27,565 £27,680 £28,064 £28,319 £25,880 £28,850 £28,085 £25,792 £27,290 £24,060 £20,795 £16,916 £17,742 £19,022 £21,939 £23,655 £23,488 £20,914

£50,682 £60,014 £56,744 £59,589 £43,583 £35,703 £42,636 £35,917 £48,108 £43,186 £37,083 £65,666 £91,385 £69,929 £76,353 £57,013 £97,622 £114,105 £70,192 £51,202 £42,576 £34,314 £57,816 £52,625 £60,822 £57,450 £53,199 £69,269 £49,224 £49,821 £35,618 £72,756 £44,689 £62,992 £45,435 £60,076 £77,242 £50,371 £46,967 £47,997 £43,477 £39,792 £43,952 £48,212 £86,138 £42,443 £38,364 £36,302 £63,101 £68,768 £65,927 £55,173 £76,824 £74,696 £62,477 £60,280 £84,421 £123,674 £75,589 £84,944 £88,583 £73,678 £79,764 £58,936 £71,457 £79,924 £90,433 £72,142 £57,481 £46,706 £49,855 £76,538 £42,965 £70,232 £63,802 £45,696

6 | Home Truths 2012

Ratio of Average monthly house private sector prices to rent for a 3 incomes1,2 bedroom house or flat 2011/127 11.1 12.1 10.1 12.9 10.8 7.2 8.4 8.7 10.1 9.0 8.9 13.1 13.7 11.1 14.3 11.8 16.4 19.3 13.2 12.1 11.0 8.3 12.8 12.4 13.0 11.4 9.5 13.8 10.0 9.8 8.4 11.2 10.0 14.3 9.0 12.3 13.8 10.7 10.5 10.3 8.2 8.0 9.5 10.2 17.7 9.4 8.2 10.6 12.2 12.4 13.1 11.7 15.7 14.8 11.8 11.5 14.3 18.7 12.8 14.3 14.7 12.1 14.4 9.5 11.9 14.5 15.5 14.0 12.9 12.9 13.1 18.8 9.1 13.9 12.7 10.2

£764 £927 £1,100 £1,244 £693 £707 £785 £780 £968 £1,010 £844 £916 £1,361 £1,081 £1,106 £872 £1,251 £1,409 £1,114 £858 £860 £737 £942 £824 £883 £908 £895 £939 £833 £827 £739 £1,099 £798 £895 £967 £899 £1,073 £795 £778 £880 £888 £684 £779 £810 £1,222 £667 £741 £664 £968 £1,150 £1,052 £862 £1,213 £1,111 £980 £962 £1,244 £1,432 £1,349 £1,275 £1,305 £1,082 £1,312 £1,182 £1,087 £1,229 £1,203 £1,229 £947 £882 £874 £976 £961 £1,043 £1,045 £885

All new HA homes completed with HCA funding 2010/115 49,196 8,160 59 70 70 320 369 146 121 122 464 74 27 65 514 235 26 11 242 464 42 50 48 60 264 1,486 303 65 130 173 168 62 99 59 78 227 122 1,485 322 131 125 19 79 242 53 20 120 117 171 86 713 83 231 47 214 138 774 183 6 84 20 140 80 194 9 51 1 6 817 92 171 145 152 65 95 97


HOME TRUTHS 2012 Total rented local authority homes 2011続 1,725,905 180,499 78 12,295 0 3,046 11,450 10,288 7,026 6,608 16,937 21 0 2,914 6,094 0 0 0 6,094 10,059 3,733 0 3,266 0 3,060 20,533 0 0 0 2,370 3,191 1 4,951 4,970 1 0 5,049 31,561 4,990 5,197 4,337 4,579 5,876 0 2 3,441 0 3,118 0 21 7,818 136 7,574 0 108 0 19,278 7 0 5,312 27 55 2,942 0 0 2,675 4,881 3,379 14,493 2,658 3,402 96 8,267 49 17 4

Total rented New lettings housing made by housing association associations and homes local authorities 20114 2010/113 2,319,386 314,776 7,778 6,709 6,921 4,251 7,524 5,515 4,031 3,884 6,946 8,787 7,705 1,329 20,879 9,598 4,812 3,471 2,998 15,873 2,323 5,921 1,374 4,384 1,871 55,216 12,638 5,609 6,419 1,494 2,725 2,665 5,034 3,114 6,214 6,931 2,373 53,722 2,032 2,237 1,619 2,239 1,346 8,063 6,638 1,783 8,127 4,570 7,869 7,199 30,380 7,044 5,117 6,373 6,429 5,417 36,959 5,747 2,419 2,557 4,503 7,591 1,361 5,419 3,252 1,094 1,569 1,447 30,367 865 2,779 7,514 2,173 6,326 6,119 4,591

323,048 37,065 592 1,275 1,130 777 1,695 1,700 2,024 663 1,898 409 474 465 1,760 625 275 171 689 1,756 337 405 293 168 553 5,030 1,102 461 329 333 443 108 217 546 315 481 695 6,570 725 627 473 553 548 597 291 446 426 686 707 491 2,508 412 908 280 541 367 3,561 308 102 762 221 474 271 402 128 274 355 264 2,778 281 623 450 576 275 312 261

Households on waiting list 20113

5 year waiting list change 2006 to 20113

Percentage of homes that are second homes 20113

Unemployment rates 2011/126

Homeless acceptances 2011/123

1,837,042 225,250 3,478 10,852 4,684 10,391 N/A 2,597 7,852 6,138 16,258 4,852 2,168 2,608 10,496 3,769 1,981 822 3,924 10,854 2,573 2,267 2,227 1,793 1,994 40,446 5,454 4,650 5,737 1,898 3,018 2,019 4,629 5,294 2,390 2,619 2,738 34,711 1,449 3,519 3,782 2,283 2,936 3,442 1,485 3,038 3,386 5,123 1,921 2,347 15,383 3,750 4,602 2,194 2,730 2,107 22,342 1,497 1,915 3,041 1,489 2,758 2,496 1,546 1,244 1,663 2,606 2,087 19,140 1,657 3,653 4,982 2,618 1,197 3,165 1,868

12.4% 15.1% -14.7% 34.7% 33.5% -12.5% 0.0% -61.0% 52.1% 63.3% 46.1% 74.2% 28.3% 13.7% 43.8% 72.0% 76.1% -49.9% 67.5% -1.0% -42.6% 74.9% 50.0% 28.3% -13.6% 25.0% 7.3% 60.9% 14.4% 31.1% 49.9% 50.2% 110.2% 24.8% -34.2% -9.2% 70.4% 13.0% 23.4% 15.8% 1.4% -9.9% 37.1% 95.1% -43.4% 14.6% -21.5% 50.9% 1.3% 62.2% 5.7% 9.1% 20.6% -2.6% -3.1% -5.4% 14.0% -32.1% 182.9% 23.9% -17.5% 33.0% 193.3% -48.2% -17.7% 50.2% 51.6% -5.3% 21.9% -3.2% 52.9% 80.4% 2.2% -20.4% 49.8% -29.8%

1.09% 1.18% 0.49% 1.57% 5.42% 0.41% 0.75% 1.08% 1.55% 1.16% 0.85% 0.82% 1.39% 0.63% 0.52% 0.50% 0.77% 0.62% 0.36% 1.96% 2.32% 1.79% 1.09% 3.32% 1.45% 0.91% 0.35% 0.68% 0.42% 0.62% 0.66% 0.31% 0.91% 2.21% 0.54% 0.55% 1.02% 1.16% 0.61% 1.64% 0.23% 2.46% 0.23% 0.26% 0.51% 1.92% 1.71% 2.21% 0.60% 0.87% 1.16% 0.52% 2.27% 0.75% 0.67% 1.62% 0.71% 1.06% 0.46% 0.54% 0.97% 0.66% 0.63% 0.64% 0.70% 0.74% 0.76% 0.58% 1.75% 0.69% 2.28% 5.30% 0.77% 0.76% 0.54% 1.11%

8.1 5.9 5.0 7.6 8.6 8.9 7.2 7.4 6.4 9.9 7.5 4.7 4.5 4.2 5.0 5.8 4.0 4.0 5.3 6.5 7.1 9.1 5.5 7.9 4.4 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.7 4.5 6.2 4.2 7.8 5.1 6.0 4.4 4.4 7.0 6.1 6.8 6.7 7.7 10.5 5.3 4.6 7.5 8.7 12.2 5.6 4.5 4.8 4.8 6.1 4.0 4.5 3.9 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.8 4.3 4.3 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.2 4.4 5.3 6.7 6.2 5.1 6.1 4.6 3.7 6.0

50,290 5,320 75 496 64 168 299 502 85 78 185 61 64 16 284 126 33 37 88 330 19 65 102 42 102 434 2 50 24 25 113 10 53 44 30 46 37 965 161 79 77 65 53 189 42 55 37 145 41 21 276 62 120 23 53 18 293 16 7 18 24 58 75 7 57 7 0 24 641 58 100 50 150 230 38 15

Home Truths 2012 | 7


National Housing Federation Lion Court 25 Procter Street London WC1V 6NY Tel: 020 7067 1042 Email: southeast@housing.org.uk Website: www.housing.org.uk

Find us or follow us on:

The National Housing Federation is the voice of affordable housing in England. We believe that everyone should have the home they need at a price they can afford. That’s why we represent the work of housing associations and campaign for better housing. Our members provide two and a half million homes for more than five million people. And each year they invest in a diverse range of neighbourhood projects that help create strong, vibrant communities.

The National Housing Federation runs iN business for neighbourhoods in partnership with members to promote the neighbourhood work of housing associations.

Home Truths 2012: South East  

Local people must take action now and say ‘yes’ to homes, warns National Housing Federation.

Advertisement