23th of January , 2011
Page 9
OBAMA’s CHINA SUMMIT WOES Failure to compromise on tough economic and security issues this week will have dangerous consequences for the president and Hu Jintao. Leslie H. Gelb on why the trick is to fight off the hawks on both sides with concrete deals on critical issues. The U.S.-China summit this week could rank among the most pivotal in history. Presidents Barack Obama and Hu Jintao can either find concrete common ground to work out increasing differences, or they can settle for friendly gasbag rhetoric that will bow to their mutual and mounting hawkish pressures. The disagreements between the two global powers are significant enough, but are being dangerously exaggerated by the military-intellectual complexes in both countries. If Obama and Hu fail to reach tangible and practical compromises on tough economic and security issues, the consequences will be most serious: The two nations that are shaping the world to come will move from a period of modest cooperation and mutual testing to a very testy era. No one is talking about wars or anything like that. But they are talking about a level of political and economic conflict that will block cooperation and heighten international tensions. Just days before the leaders meet in Washington, it looks like the “compromises” will be more rhetorical than substantive. On the plus side, officials say the leaders will announce tens of billions of dollars in new contracts for Beijing to purchase U.S. goods, especially civilian aircraft. On the minus side, there might be some unpleasantness on human rights, with Obama hardening his stance, and Hu telling him to mind his own business. If that is the result of the summit, hawks on both sides will rejoice. Thus far, Obama administration officials have been trying much harder than the Hu team to find solid common ground in the danger zones, precisely to head off increasing right-wing influence on policy. U.S. officials see what hawks on both sides are doing—exaggerating threats and differences, driving those differences to sword’s point. Contrary to what U.S. hawks say, Obama officials are far from oblivious to the new Chinese tendency to muscle neighbors and others, and they are troubled by it. The White House knows well its need to demonstrate toughness. Thus, the Obama team has been walking the tricky line between pressing for needed deals with Beijing in the mutual interest and, at the same time, not looking weak.
US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao The problem is that Chinese officials don’t seem nearly as concerned about the looming pitfalls or much disposed toward genuine compromises. On Sunday, Hu told American reporters that he wanted to seek “common ground” and build “mutual trust.” But from this side of the Pacific, their stance looks otherwise: Overall, they’re trying to sound congenial, along the lines Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping originally set for relations with Washington decades ago. Thus, the
Chinese say they don’t want confrontations or bad relations with Washington, they want cooperation on economic matters. They still see the U.S. as the world’s leading economic and military power; indeed, they’re quite happy to see Washington continue to play the role of the world’s policeman. If anything, Chinese officials are sending off signals that they think they are completely in the right about every matter in dispute, and that Washington is totally in
the wrong on every count. But scratch that surface with a few tough questions about new Chinese assertiveness and muscularity, and they can get quite emotional, even heated. If anything, Chinese officials are sending off signals that they think they are completely in the right about every matter in dispute, and that Washington is totally in the wrong on every count. In sum, many Chinese leaders, businessmen and youth are feeling their oats. They note that the U.S. is still far ahead of them, but they feel equal, if not superior, already. They’re supersensitive to what they see as being pushed around by an America used to Chinese inferiority. It’s not just that they feel a chip on their shoulders; it’s that they feel it’s their turn to lead—albeit without being willing to step forward and take responsibility for leadership. Leadership is costly. Real leaders not only assert their interests vigorously, but make compromises and sacrifices in order to lead successfully and without the costs of conflict. Chinese leaders today just appear content or determined to continue growing economically and not making any sacrifices. They are not inclined to do much by way of getting tough with North Korea or Iran, potential nuclear problems, if it requires economic or other sacrifices.
Obama, Jintao Hu seek common ground
WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama is lavishing the grandest of White House welcomes on Chinese President Hu Jintao as the leaders of the world’s two top powers try to find common ground on economic and security issues without alienating their domestic audiences. With many Americans blaming China at least in part for the high U.S. unemployment rate, both presidents will be looking to build trust in a relationship grounded in mutual interest but troubled by intractable disputes. It follows an up and down two years in which an assertive China initially cold-shouldered the U.S. on climate change, did little to reel in its unpredictable ally North Korea and responded limply to U.S. pleas to mitigate trade imbalances. For its part, the U.S. riled China by selling arms to Taiwan and inviting Tibet’s spiritual
leader, the Dalai Lama, to the White House. Both sides are now setting a more positive tone. Hu was welcomed on arrival Tuesday at Andrews Air Force Base by Vice President Joe Biden and then attended the first of two dinners Obama is hosting for him during his four-day U.S. stay. After talks Wednesday, the two leaders will hold a joint news conference — just four questions allowed. They are expected to announce an agreement to establish a jointly financed nuclear security center in China. A full state dinner at the White House in the evening will be the ceremonial highlight. While the agenda is packed with weighty issues, expectations remain modest.“Overcoming the sense of mistrust is probably the most important thing,” said Charles Freeman, a China expert at the Center for the Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. Hu’s visit comes as the political trajectory has shifted for both nations. China’s success in weathering the global economic crisis coincided with an increasing confidence — critics would say brashness — on the world stage and worries among its neigh-
bors in Asia over its growing military clout. Ultimately, that distrust has benefited the U.S., as nations such as Japan, South Korea and even Vietnam have looked to cement stronger ties with the U.S. as a regional power. The U.S. economy has shown signs of recovery and Obama also has rebounded from his own political problems, notably the loss of one house of Congress to the Republican Party in November midterm elections. A nuclear arms reduction treaty he orchestrated with Russia was approved, and he has been lauded for a touchstone speech in the aftermath of the shooting massacre in Arizona. His previously stellar poll ratings have begun to recover after months in the doldrums. That shift in fortunes is unlikely to translate into major concessions from Hu, but Obama may encounter a more amenable Chinese leader, who will be looking to burnish China’s image in the U.S. and his own standing before he steps down in 2012. Stiff and media-averse, Hu, 67, has been in power since 2002. While lacking the charisma of predecessors Jiang Zemin and Deng Xiaoping, he has presided over a remarkable rise in China’s economy.