Page 1

MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 April 2013


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 1 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS •

Asian Stocks Decline With Commodities on Japan Data. Asian stocks fell, after a survey of sentiment among Japan’s largest manufacturers missed estimates and an official gauge of China’s factory output expanded at a slower-than-expected pace. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) lost 1.3 percent to 133.82 as of 3:23 p.m. in Tokyo, with more than three shares falling for each that rose. The gauge has rallied in the past five months amid signs the U.S economy is recovering and speculation Japan will introduce aggressive measures to stimulate the world’s third-largest economy. The Nikkei 225 fell 2.1 percent today while China’s Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index (KOSPI) slid 0.4 percent, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.1 percent. Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand are closed today for a holiday.

WTI Slides From Six-Week High. West Texas Intermediate crude slid from the highest close in six weeks, snapping its longest rally this year. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) shut a pipeline that carries oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast. WTI for May delivery slipped as much as 55 cents to $96.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $96.88 at 4:24 p.m. in Singapore. It closed at $97.23 on March 28, the highest settlement since Feb. 14, capping the longest rally since Dec. 20. Brent for May settlement lost 23 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $109.79 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS •

U.S. State Economies Shows Most Gains Since Before Recession. The economic health of 44 U.S. states improved in the fourth quarter, the most in any period since 2006, as almost all benefited from growing employment and personal income. The gains matched the total in the second quarter of 2006, more than a year before the 18-month recession began, according to the Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of States index. Only four states – New Jersey, Maryland, Wyoming and Maine - had declines in the last three months of 2012 compared with the previous quarter. The index measures tax collections, home prices, mortgage delinquency, job growth, personal income and performance of local company stocks. In the fourth quarter, every state and the District of Columbia had gains in personal income. Every state except Connecticut, Nebraska and Maine, and the District of Columbia, had gains in employment.

Consumer Spending in U.S. Climbs by Most in Five Months. Consumer spending climbed in February by the most in five months and confidence unexpectedly improved in March. Purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, rose 0.7


percent after a 0.4 percent advance the prior month that was bigger than previously estimated, according to Commerce Department data today in Washington. Another report showed consumer sentiment advanced to a four-month high. Consumer confidence climbed this month as Americans grew more optimistic about the outlook for the economy. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final March sentiment index rose to 78.6, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, from 77.6 in February. The gauge of expectations six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, also advanced to a four-month high. The Commerce Department’s report showed incomes increased 1.1 percent, exceeding the 0.8 percent advance projected by economists surveyed. Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, rose 0.7 percent after adjusting for inflation. It dropped 4 percent in the prior month. •

Belgian 2013 Budget Deal to Shrink Deficit, Lower Debt. Belgium will cut spending, raise taxes and sell state assets as part of a 2013 budget deal that aims to reduce debt to 100 percent of gross domestic product, the government said. The budget will reduce the deficit to 2.46 percent of GDP, including a structural shortfall of 1.8 percent, the government said today in Brussels. The deal calls for 1.4 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in structural adjustments to lower the deficit, along with about 1 billion euros in one-off asset sales over the next year to meet the debt target. Belgium’s budget deficit surpassed European Union targets last year as a shrinking economy curbed tax revenue and money was used to replenish Dexia SA (DEXB)’s capital. The deficit widened to 3.9 percent of GDP in 2012 from 3.7 percent the year befor while the Belgian economy shrank 0.2 percent last year

REGIONAL •

Japan's Big Manufacturers Grow Less Pessimistic, Survey Shows. Pessimism among large Japanese companies lessened in the first three months of the year, the Bank of Japan's closely watched tankan survey showed Monday, in the latest sign that business sentiment has started to improve as the economy gets back on the road to recovery. The survey's large manufacturers' business sentiment index improved to minus-8, compared with minus-12 in December. The reading came in slightly worse than economists' median forecast for minus-7. The improvement is due largely to a significant depreciation of the yen and spikes in share prices bolstered by hopes for pro-growth policies through bold monetary policy and fiscal spending by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who returned to power in December.

China Manufacturing Expands at Faster Pace, PMI Gauges Show. China’s manufacturing expanded at a faster pace last month, indicating a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is sustaining momentum. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (SHCOMP) was 50.9, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in Beijing, an 11-month high and up from 50.1 in February. A separate gauge from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 51.6 in March from 50.4. Page 2 of 9


Readings above 50 indicate expansion. Gauges of output and export orders advanced in the official survey while an index of input prices declined, a boost for new Premier Li Keqiang as he seeks to spur expansion without fanning inflation. The March improvement follows the weakest January-February growth for factory output since 2009. The government PMI was lower than the 51.2 median estimate of 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. •

Beijing, Shanghai Add to Home Curbs as China Acts to Cool Market. China’s largest cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, tightened rules on home purchases after the nation asked local governments to step up efforts to cool the property market. Beijing, the capital, banned single-person households from buying more than one residence while Shanghai prohibited banks from giving credit to third-home buyers, according to the local administration websites. The two cities will also enforce a 20 percent tax on capital gains from property sales. Home prices in the capital jumped 5.9 percent from a year earlier in February, the biggest increase in two years, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Tianjin and Jinan have also published details on the housing curbs. Shenzhen will limit home price increases to the growth rate of per capita disposable income this year, according to a statement on the city’s government website yesterday.

South Korea Exports Rise Less Than Estimated on Weaker Yen. South Korean exports rose less than forecast last month as improving global demand for the country’s electronics and cars was tempered by a weaker Japanese yen. Overseas shipments rose 0.4 percent in March from a year earlier, after an 8.6 percent drop in February, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 11 economists was for a 1.8 percent gain. Consumer prices rose 1.3 percent last month from a year ago, according to a Statistics Korea report. President Park Geun Hye’s government has pledged to enact new stimulus measures this month after cutting the 2013 growth forecast to 2.3 percent from 3 percent last week. Imports fell 2 percent from a year earlier in March, the ministry said today. The trade surplus widened to $3.4 billion from $2 billion in February.

South Korea Announces Tax Breaks to Revive Flagging Home Sales. South Korea will give tax breaks to home buyers and cut borrowing costs as the government seeks to revive home sales that tumbled to the lowest level since 2006, threatening a rebound in Asia’s fourth-largest economy. First-time home-buyers with annual income less than 60 million won ($53,900) will be exempted this year from taxes on property purchases worth no more than 10 times their salary, according to a government statement. Multiple-home owners will see rules relaxed on capital-gains taxes. The measures, which require parliamentary approval, are aimed at reversing a housing slump that Land Minister Suh Seoung Hwan says has gone on for too long. Transactions fell 14 percent to 47,288 in February, the least for that month in seven years, according to the land Page 3 of 9


ministry. Prices are also sliding, with values in Seoul lower than any time since March 2008. Other measures announced today including a move to lower borrowing costs on state-supported loans to between 3.3 percent and 3.5 percent, down from 3.8 percent. •

Singapore Home Price Gains Slow Most in Three Quarters on Curbs. Singapore home prices climbed at the slowest pace in three quarters after the government imposed more curbs such as higher stamp duties for housing transactions, a government report showed. The island state’s private residential property price index rose 0.5 percent to a record 213.1 points in the three months ended March 31, easing from a 1.8 percent increase in the fourth quarter, according to preliminary estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority today. The advance was the smallest since the second quarter last year. Singapore’s home sales plunged 65 percent to a 14-month low in February after the government introduced its seventh round of property curbs to cool record home prices. Home sales dropped to 708 units in February from a revised 2,016 units in January, the authority said on March 15. Apartment prices increased 0.4 percent in prime districts in the first quarter, down from a 0.7 percent gain in the previous three months, the data showed. Those in the suburbs climbed 1.7 percent, less than half of the 3.8 percent increase in the previous quarter, according to the statement today.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) ADBI - Working Paper: “How Useful Is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) Index for Surveillance in East Asia?” •

The ADBI has publicised the captioned working paper. “An Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index is constructed using an alternative procedure which minimizes a basket or portfolio of assets expressed in terms of national currencies. We suggest several ways in which the region can capitalize on using this ACU index in the immediate term for surveillance purposes, particularly, for purposes of assessing "over- and undervaluation" of the individual currencies from the regional ACU average and for flagging emerging vulnerabilities in individual economies in the region.” http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.03.27.wp413.acu.index.surveillance.east.asia.pdf

FSB – Press Release: Fourth Meeting of the Financial Stability Board Regional Consultative Group for Asia •

Bank Negara Malaysia hosted the fourth meeting of the FSB Regional Consultative Group for Asia in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on 28 March 2013. At their meeting, members began by reviewing the FSB’s policy priorities and work plan which was followed by a discussion of vulnerabilities and regional financial stability issues. Members also considered the impact of the framework for systemically important financial institutions on Asia and possible policy responses, and the structure of shadow banking in Asia. In a final session, members discussed the impact of regulatory issues and reforms stemming from the global financial crisis and what they mean for the region. http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/press/pr_130328.pdf

IFC – Press Release: IFC Invests in China’s Leading Biopesticide Manufacturer, Promoting Sustainable Forest and Crop Management Page 4 of 9


IFC has agreed to buy shares worth of $8.5 million in Jiangxi Tianren Ecology Co., Ltd., helping the firm expand its biopesticide business and promoting sustainable forest and crop management in China. Tianren is located in Ji An, Jiangxi Province, one of China’s least developed regions. With IFC’s investment, Tianren will increase its manufacturing capacity and strengthen its spray service both on land and in the air. Tianren will thus be able to supply biopesticide for over one million hectares of forest and arable land in China, enhancing the productivity. http://www.ifc.org/IFCExt/Pressroom/IFCPressRoom.nsf/0/756D7B1FD912055B85257B 3C002B8884

IMF – Working Paper: “Too Cold, Too Hot, Or Just Right? Assessing Financial Sector Development Across the Globe” •

The IMF has published the above-stated working paper. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1381.pdf

IMF – Press Releases: •

The IMF has published the following news: •

Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/cofer/eng/index.htm (Updated COFER tables which is inclusive of fourth quarter 2012 data)

Rethinking Macro Policy II: First Steps and Early Lessons http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2013/macro2/index.htm

IMF – Publication: Labor Market Policies and IMF Advice in Advanced Economies during the Great Recession •

The IMF has published a Staff Discussion Note on the above-stated topic. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2013/sdn1302.pdf

OECD – Publication: “Interim Economic Assessment” •

Global economic activity is picking up, but the continuing crisis in the euro area is delaying a meaningful recovery, the OECD said in its latest Interim Economic Assessment. The Assessment, presented in Paris by Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan, says that the G7 economies are expected to grow at an annualised 2.4 per cent rate in the first quarter of 2013 and at a 1.8 percent rate in the second. It notes that financial markets are out-pacing real activity, which has been held back by weak business and consumer confidence, and highlights the risk that asset prices may rise beyond levels justified by fundamentals. http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/global-economy-is-improving-but-europe-lagsbehind.htm (Press Release) http://www.oecd.org/eco/economicoutlook.htm (Interim Economic Assessment) http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/Economic-Outlook-Handout.pdf (Presentation Notes by Chief Economist, Pier Carlo Padoan)

World Bank – Press Releases •

The World Bank has published the following news: Page 5 of 9


“China: GEF grant to help reduce traffic congestion and carbon emissions in Chinese cities” http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/03/29/china-gef-granthelp-reduce-traffic-congestion-carbon-emissions-chinese-cities

“Donors support the Implementation of Lao PDR’s Trade and Integration Priorities through the Second Trade Development Facility” http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/03/28/donors-continueto-support-the-implementation-of-laos-tdf-2

“GEF grant approved to support 140 poor fishing communities in Vietnam’s coastal areas” http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/03/29/gef-grantapproved-support-140-poor-fishing-communities-vietnam-coastal-areas

“World Bank Supports Move to Accelerate Indonesia’s Economic Growth through Science, Technology, and Innovation” http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/03/29/world-banksupports-move-accelerate-indonesia-economic-growth-science-technologyinnovation

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close close China 6.23 6.21 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,777.00 Japan 86.75 94.46 Korea 1,064.40 1,119.28 Malaysia 3.06 3.11 Philippines 41.01 40.87 Singapore 1.22 1.25 Thailand 30.59 29.29 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,940.00

29-Mar 6.21 7.76 9,735.00 94.22 1,111.35 3.09 40.81 1.24 29.26 20,935.00

1-Apr 6.21 7.76 9,739.00 93.57 1,114.73 3.09 40.84 1.24 29.33 20,943.00

% change 0.03 0.00 -0.04 0.69 -0.30 0.02 -0.07 -0.05 -0.24 -0.04

Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

2013 YTD (%chg) 0.4 -0.2 -0.9 -6.7 -4.6 -1.9 0.0 -1.6 3.4 -0.5

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,278.4 22,533.1 4,819.3 12,561.0 1,986.5 1,627.6 6,654.6 3,286.1 1,598.1 481.4

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 29-Mar 1-Apr 2.700 2.000 0.084 0.084 4.181 4.180 0.085 0.080 2.750 2.750

29-Mar 2,236.6 22,299.6 4,941.0 12,397.9 2,004.9 1,671.6 6,847.5 3,308.1 1,561.1 491.0 bps change -70.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.50 0.00

1-Apr 2,234.4 22,299.6 4,937.6 12,135.0 1,996.0 1,667.6 6,839.6 3,310.0 1,553.9 505.8

% change -0.10 0.00 -0.07 -2.12 -0.44 -0.24 -0.12 0.06 -0.46 3.01

2013 YTD (%chg) -1.5 -4.3 13.6 16.7 -1.7 -0.4 16.7 3.4 10.4 20.9

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 29-Mar 1-Apr bps change 3.881 3.880 -0.01 0.382 0.382 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.250 0.250 0.00 2.750 2.750 0.00

Page 6 of 9


Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

3.000 -7.807 0.033 2.750 2.750

3.000 -1.914 0.033 2.750 3.000

0.00 589.30 0.00 0.00 25.00

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 28-Mar China 69.38 Hong Kong SAR 42.27 Indonesia 155.72 Japan 72.03 Korea 74.31 Malaysia 84.47 Philippines 103.88 Thailand 94.69 Vietnam 207.53

29-Mar 71.35 42.27 157.68 73.51 76.29 85.45 103.88 96.66 209.95

bps change 1.97 0.00 1.96 1.47 1.98 0.98 0.00 1.97 2.42

3.210 -0.202 0.375 2.855 5.650

3.210 0.406 0.375 2.855 5.571

0.00 60.80 0.00 0.00 -7.90

Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 29-Mar 1-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,597.5 1,597.2 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change -0.02

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2013

31-Jul 3,240.0

31-Aug 3,272.9

30-Sep 3,285.1

31-Oct 3,287.4

30-Nov 3,297.7

31-Dec 3,311.6

31-Jan n.a

28-Feb n.a

31-Mar n.a

296.3

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

304.7

304.8

n.a

106.6 1,272.8 314.4 134.5 79.8 244.1 175.3 20.0

109.0 1,273.2 316.9 134.9 80.7 246.2 179.2 20.8

110.2 1,277.0 322.0 137.5 82.0 252.1 183.6 21.3

110.3 1,274.2 323.5 138.3 81.7 254.2 181.5 n.a

111.3 1,270.9 326.1 139.1 83.9 255.8 181.6 n.a

112.8 1,268.1 327.0 139.7 83.8 259.3 181.6 n.a

108.8 1,267.3 328.9 140.2 85.3 258.8 181.6 n.a

105.2 1,258.8 327.4 140.3 83.6 259.1 179.2 n.a

n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Page 7 of 9


Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

3,311.6 304.8 105.2 1,258.8 327.4 140.3 83.6 259.1 179.2 21.3

521.2 143.9 55.5 70.4 156.7 56.7 20.1 121.5 68.2 30.9

572.8 752.6 43.9 2,371.0 126.7 30.4 8.5 964.3 60.7 10.0

Reserves over short-term debt

6.4 2.1 1.9 17.9 2.1 2.5 4.2 2.1 2.6 -

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 3.0 -

Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Shortterm debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly. DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY

Country INDONESIA INDONESIA INDONESIA INDONESIA INDONESIA INDONESIA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA THAILAND THAILAND

Indicators Total Imports (YoY)% Core Inflation (YoY)% Exports (YoY)% Inflation (YoY)% Inflation NSA (MoM)% Total Trade Balance (USD mn) Core Consumer Price Index(YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (MoM)% Ext Trade - Imports (YoY)% Ext Trade - Export (YoY)% HSBC Manufacturing PMI Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Core CPI (YoY)%

Period Feb Mar Feb Mar Mar Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar

Last 3.0 4.2 -4.5 5.9 0.6 -327.4 1.5 1.3 -0.2 -2.0 0.4 52.0 2.7 1.2

Previous 6.8 4.3 -1.2 5.3 0.75 -171.0 1.3 1.4 0.3 -10.7 -8.6 50.9 3.2 1.6

Page 8 of 9


Expected Release Date 4/1/2013

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (1 Apr – 5 Apr 2013)

Country

Indicators

Period

INDONESIA

Consumer Confidence Index

Mar

INDONESIA

Total Imports (YoY)%

Feb

INDONESIA

Core Inflation (YoY)%

Mar

INDONESIA

Exports (YoY)%

Feb

INDONESIA

Inflation (YoY)%

Mar

INDONESIA

Inflation NSA (MoM)%

Mar

INDONESIA

Total Trade Balance (USD mn)

Feb

SOUTH KOREA

Core Consumer Price Index(YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Consumer Price Index (MoM)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Ext Trade - Imports (YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Ext Trade - Export (YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

HSBC Manufacturing PMI

Mar

THAILAND

Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Mar

THAILAND

Core CPI (YoY)%

Mar

PHILIPPINES

Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn)

Feb

SOUTH KOREA

Foreign Exchange Reserve (USD bn)

Mar

THAILAND

Benchmark Interest Rate

Apr 3

INDONESIA

Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)

Mar

INDONESIA

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar

CHINA

China HSBC Services PMI

Mar

HONG KONG

Purchasing Managers Index

Mar

4/4/2013

THAILAND

Consumer Confidence Economic

Mar

4/5/2013

MALAYSIA

Imports YoY%

Feb

MALAYSIA

Exports YoY%

Feb

THAILAND

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar 29

MALAYSIA

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar 29

JAPAN

Official Reserve Assets (USD bn)

Mar

PHILIPPINES

Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Mar

PHILIPPINES

Foreign Reserves (USD mn)

Mar

SINGAPORE

GDP (YoY)%

1Q A

SINGAPORE

GDP (QoQ)%

1Q A

4/3/2013

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 9 of 9


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 2 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS •

Asian Stocks Swing Between Gains, Losses on U.S. Data. Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index poised for the first two-day loss in almost three weeks, as Japanese shares slid after data on U.S. manufacturing missed estimates and the yen strengthened. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.1 percent to 134.00 as of 4:10 p.m. in Tokyo, with about three stocks losing for every two that gained. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index added 0.2 percent to 472.63. Japan’s Topix Index dropped 0.9 percent before the Bank of Japan convenes April 3-4 in its first policy meeting after new Governor Haruhiko Kuroda took the post. South Korea’s Kospi Index dropped 0.5 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.3 and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.3 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index was little changed.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS •

U.S Manufacturers See Slower Gains. U.S. manufacturers notched a fourth consecutive month of expansion in March, continuing to grow but at a slower pace than in February, with the auto and housing sectors leading the gains. Last month's 51.3 level of overall manufacturing activity was down from 54.2 in February, suggesting that companies continue to exercise caution in stepping up their workforces, spending and capacity. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. March's pullback in new orders and production was somewhat countered by faster growth in two other key areas: employment and exports.

Cyprus Seeks More Time to Meet Targets in Talks With Troika. Cyprus government officials will seek easier bailout terms in talks with representatives of the European Union and International Monetary Fund today, before a meeting of euro-area finance officials later this week. The government has been granted an extension to 2017 from 2016 to secure a primary budget surplus, which excludes interest payments, and it hopes to negotiate an additional year to 2018, he said. Cyprus’s government is seeking more time to reach targets required in return for 10 billion euros ($12.8 billion) in international funds after agreeing to impose losses on uninsured depositors at the country’s two biggest banks. The latest version of Cyprus’s bailout agreement with the so-called troika of representatives from the EU, European Central Bank and IMF targets a primary deficit of 2.4 percent of gross domestic product this year and a primary surplus of 4 percent of GDP in 2017.

IMF Urges Denmark to Drop Risky Mortgages as Losses Loom. The International Monetary Fund is urging Denmark to phase out interest-only mortgages or risk destabilizing its housing market, as lawmakers and lenders debate whether to aid


borrowers unable to pay their loans. “In many countries, this type of loan is forbidden, so it wouldn’t be given in the first place,” Yingbin Xiao, senior economist at the Washington-based IMF, said in a telephone interview. The loans make up too large a portion of Denmark’s $300 billion economy for banks to drop them from one day to the next, according to the IMF. The challenge now is phasing them out without fanning the risks they entail, according to the fund. “Given the rapid growth in the proportion of the total they make up, it is not realistic to suddenly ask banks to stop all this,” Xiao said. “But it would be prudent to phase out this type of loan gradually.” •

Australia Holds Rates Again as Hopes Strengthen. Australia's central bank left interest rates unchanged for the third-straight month, signaling confidence that a yearlong string of cuts will be enough to avoid a hard economic landing. The last rate cut, in December, took the benchmark target to 3%, a low previously reached in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. "There are a number of indications that the substantial easing of monetary policy during late 2011 and 2012 is having an expansionary effect on the economy," RBA Gov. Glenn Stevens said Tuesday. "Further such effects can be expected to emerge over time." The economy expanded more strongly than expected in the final quarter of last year, while the country's employment rate remained steady in February at 5.4%, against economists' expectations for an increase. Also, government data last month showed retail sales rose sharply in January from December, signaling a pickup in consumer confidence and spending.

REGIONAL •

Southeast Asia Seeks Better Capital Safety Net. Asian officials meeting in Brunei this week will put the final touches on a crisis-prevention facility with quicker access to emergency aid. They also will finalize work to upgrade the status of Asean's financialmonitoring body, paving the way to give it more clout and responsibility. The fact the CMIM has never been tested and the need for approval from multiple stakeholders act as deterrents to its use, analysts have said. "These are early days and [the CMIM] has come a long way, but the fundamental question I think is, 'Is it workable at the moment?'," said Jayant Menon, lead economist for trade and regional cooperation in the Asian Development Bank's Office of Regional Economic Integration. "I'm afraid the answer to that is 'No,' and there's no use pussyfooting around that reality." Policy makers are taking the criticism to heart. Asean+3 is increasing the proportion of funds that can be accessed without IMF involvement, making liquidity available for longer periods, boosting Amro's workforce and developing an early-warning system to help Amro nip problems in the bud. In the future, he said, membership might be extended to the Asean+6, which includes Australia, India and New Zealand, or Asean+8, which adds Russia and the U.S. In addition, he said, CMIM and Amro could even merge into an IMF-type structure "a few years ahead." That would allow decisions on grants to be

Page 2 of 8


delegated to an executive committee at Amro, rather than to individual member countries. •

Southeast Asia Streamlines Share-Disclosure Rules. Companies wishing to issue shares or debt securities at the same time in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand will now have to comply with only a single set of disclosure requirements, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said. With the new program in place, "issuers will only need to prepare one set of prospectus for a multi-jurisdiction offering in the region," said Lee Chuan Teck, assistant managing director of the MAS. He said authorities hope the initiative "will encourage more companies to offer securities across Asean and help promote Asean as an integrated capital market for fundraising." Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand since 2009 have had an agreement in place aimed at harmonizing disclosure standards for share and debt offerings, but companies still had to meet some additional requirements in each country. Under the new disclosure requirements, there will be a single set of rules for all three countries. Other Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines and Indonesia weren't part of the previous agreement, nor are they part of the new one, which takes effect Tuesday. The MAS announcement said other Asean countries may opt in to the new common standards whenever they choose.

Abe Says BOJ May Miss Price Target If Global Economy Changes. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that the central bank shouldn’t pursue a 2 percent inflation target “at all costs” and may fail to achieve it should global conditions change. “The economy is a living thing and we don’t know what will happen around the world,” Abe said today, answering a question from opposition lawmaker Seiji Maehara in parliament. “What is important is to aim steadily for the target.” Abe was speaking two days before the first monetary decision due under Haruhiko Kuroda, the new Bank of Japan (8301)governor, who has pledged to step up easing to defeat deflation and spur growth in the world’s third-biggest economy. Kuroda also spoke to lawmakers today, reiterating that he aims to achieve the 2 percent price goal within two years.

Industrial production looking good in Vietnam. Steel inventories have fallen sharply and garment-textile enterprises have received stable orders. Industrial production is expected to improve in the second quarter of this year as many domestic enterprises step up raw material imports for production, Ministry of Industry and Trade official Nguyen Tien Vy said at a meeting here yesterday. According to the planning department director, inventory levels in the steel industry have fallen sharply and hovered at about 280,000 tonnes. He said many garment and textile enterprises had already received stable orders for the second quarter and were negotiating for the third. In the first quarter, the index of industrial production (IIP) reached a low level of 4.9 per cent, compared with 5.9 per cent in the same period last year. Vy said inventories began to increase in March, adding that the rate for manufacturing and processing industries was 16.5 per cent higher than for the same period last year. Page 3 of 8


IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) ADBI - Working Paper: “Deepening Association of Southeast Asian Nations' Financial Markets” •

The ADBI has publicised the captioned working paper. “This paper discusses the financial landscape of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a region engaged in building an economic community (a "single market and production base") by 2015. In particular, it reviews where ASEAN's financial markets and institutions now stand and suggests possible ways in which they might be developed further to meet the aspirations of the region.” http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.03.28.wp414.deepening.asean.financial.markets.pdf

ADBI – Publication: “Asian Development Review - Volume 30 - 2013 - Number 1” •

The ADBI has publicised the revamped Asian Development Review which is the Volume 30, Number 1 issue of 2013. http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.04.01.keydocs.2013.asian.dev.review.vol30.no1.pdf

IMF – Policy Paper: “Asia and Pacific Small States - Raising Potential Growth and Enhancing Resilience to Shocks” •

The IMF has publicised the above-stated policy paper. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/022013a.pdf

IMF – Press Release: IMF Executive Board Concludes Macroeconomic Issues in Small States and Implications for Fund Engagement •

On March 11, the Executive Board of the IMF held discussions of staff findings and proposals set forth in a paper entitled: “Macroeconomic Issues in Small States and Implications for Fund Engagement.” http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2013/pn1339.htm (Press Release) http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/022013.pdf (Policy Paper)

IMF – Press Release: IMF Executive Board Considers External Evaluation of the Independent Evaluation Office •

On March 21, the Executive Board of the IMF discussed the second External Evaluation of the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO). http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2013/pn1340.htm (Press Release) http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/010113.pdf (Policy Paper)

IMF – Working Papers •

The IMF has publicised the following working papers: •

“China’s Demography and its Implications” http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1382.pdf

“China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth: Reorienting Investment and Enhancing Efficiency” http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1383.pdf

World Bank – Press Release: China - Large City Congestion and Carbon Reduction Project •

The World Bank’s Board has approved the GEF grant of US$18.2 million equivalent for the captioned project. The objective of this project is to help establish a policy framework to alleviate traffic congestion and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in large cities in China primarily through public transport development and travel demand management, and implement such policy framework in pilot cities so as to demonstrate its local and global benefits. Page 4 of 8


http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/loans-credits/2013/03/29/china-large-city-congestioncarbon-ceduction-croject World Bank – Press Release: Vietnam - Coastal Resources for Sustainable Development Grant [Additional Financing] •

The World Bank’s Board has approved the additional GEF grant of US$6.5 million for the captioned project. The objective for the project is to improve the sustainable management of coastal fisheries in the project provinces. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/loans-credits/2013/03/29/vietnam-coastal-resources-forsustainable-development-grant-additional-financing

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close close China 6.23 6.21 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,777.00 Japan 86.75 94.46 Korea 1,064.40 1,119.28 Malaysia 3.06 3.11 Philippines 41.01 40.87 Singapore 1.22 1.25 Thailand 30.59 29.29 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,940.00

1-Apr 6.21 7.76 9,739.00 93.23 1,114.73 3.09 40.84 1.24 29.31 20,943.00

2-Apr 6.20 7.76 9,739.00 93.23 1,117.98 3.09 40.89 1.24 29.37 20,935.00

% change 0.14 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.29 0.19 -0.11 0.19 -0.20 0.04

Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

2013 YTD (%chg) 0.5 -0.1 -0.9 -6.3 -4.9 -1.7 -0.1 -1.4 3.3 -0.5

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,278.4 22,533.1 4,819.3 12,561.0 1,986.5 1,627.6 6,654.6 3,286.1 1,598.1 481.4

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 1-Apr 2-Apr 2.000 2.020 0.084 0.081 4.180 4.180 0.080 0.080 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000 -1.914 0.080 0.022 0.022 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.778

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 29-Mar China 71.35 Hong Kong SAR 42.27 Indonesia 157.68 Japan 73.51 Korea 76.29

1-Apr 71.35 42.27 157.68 73.56 76.29

1-Apr 2,234.4 22,299.6 4,937.6 12,135.0 1,996.0 1,667.6 6,839.6 3,307.6 1,549.6 505.8 bps change 2.00 -0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 199.40 0.00 0.00 77.80

2-Apr 2,227.7 22,367.8 4,957.3 12,003.4 1,986.2 1,685.0 6,748.4 3,317.6 1,548.3 509.4

% change -0.30 0.31 0.40 -1.08 -0.49 1.04 -1.33 0.30 -0.08 0.72

2013 YTD (%chg) -1.8 -4.1 14.1 15.5 -2.2 0.6 15.1 3.6 10.0 21.8

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 1-Apr 2-Apr bps change 3.880 3.880 0.00 0.382 0.381 -0.14 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.250 0.250 0.00 2.750 2.750 0.00 3.210 3.210 0.00 0.406 0.282 -12.40 0.375 0.375 0.00 2.855 2.855 0.00 5.571 6.233 66.20

bps change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00

Page 5 of 8


Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam

85.45 103.88 96.66 209.95

85.45 103.88 96.66 209.95

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 1-Apr 2-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,599.5 1,598.4 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change -0.07

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2013

31-Jul 3,240.0

31-Aug 3,272.9

30-Sep 3,285.1

31-Oct 3,287.4

30-Nov 3,297.7

31-Dec 3,311.6

31-Jan n.a

28-Feb n.a

31-Mar n.a

296.3

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

304.7

304.8

n.a

106.6 1,272.8 314.4 134.5 79.8 244.1 175.3 20.0

109.0 1,273.2 316.9 134.9 80.7 246.2 179.2 20.8

110.2 1,277.0 322.0 137.5 82.0 252.1 183.6 21.3

110.3 1,274.2 323.5 138.3 81.7 254.2 181.5 n.a

111.3 1,270.9 326.1 139.1 83.9 255.8 181.6 n.a

112.8 1,268.1 327.0 139.7 83.8 259.3 181.6 n.a

108.8 1,267.3 328.9 140.2 85.3 258.8 181.6 n.a

105.2 1,258.8 327.4 140.3 83.6 259.1 179.2 n.a

n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea

Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

3,311.6 304.8 105.2 1,258.8 327.4

521.2 149.4 55.5 70.4 156.7

572.8 752.6 43.9 2,371.0 126.7

Reserves over short-term debt

6.4 2.0 1.9 17.9 2.1

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6

Page 6 of 8


140.3 83.6 259.1 179.2 21.3

Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

56.7 20.1 121.5 68.2 30.9

30.4 8.5 964.3 60.7 10.0

2.5 4.2 2.1 2.6 -

4.6 9.9 0.3 3.0 -

Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Shortterm debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly. Country HONG KONG HONG KONG

Expected Release Date 4/1/2013

DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)% Retail Sales - Value (YoY)%

Period Feb Feb

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (1 Apr – 5 Apr 2013)

Country

Indicators

Last 21.9 22.7

Previous 10.4 10.5

Period

INDONESIA

Consumer Confidence Index

Mar

INDONESIA

Total Imports (YoY)%

Feb

INDONESIA

Core Inflation (YoY)%

Mar

INDONESIA

Exports (YoY)%

Feb

INDONESIA

Inflation (YoY)%

Mar

INDONESIA

Inflation NSA (MoM)%

Mar

INDONESIA

Total Trade Balance (USD mn)

Feb

SOUTH KOREA

Core Consumer Price Index(YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Consumer Price Index (MoM)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Ext Trade - Imports (YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Ext Trade - Export (YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

HSBC Manufacturing PMI

Mar

THAILAND

Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Mar

THAILAND

Core CPI (YoY)%

Mar

PHILIPPINES

Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn)

Feb

SOUTH KOREA

Foreign Exchange Reserve (USD bn)

Mar

THAILAND

Benchmark Interest Rate

Apr 3

INDONESIA

Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)

Mar

INDONESIA

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar

CHINA

China HSBC Services PMI

Mar

HONG KONG

Purchasing Managers Index

Mar

4/4/2013

THAILAND

Consumer Confidence Economic

Mar

4/5/2013

MALAYSIA

Imports YoY%

Feb

MALAYSIA

Exports YoY%

Feb

THAILAND

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar 29

MALAYSIA

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar 29

JAPAN

Official Reserve Assets (USD bn)

Mar

PHILIPPINES

Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Mar

4/3/2013

Page 7 of 8


PHILIPPINES

Foreign Reserves (USD mn)

Mar

SINGAPORE

GDP (YoY)%

1Q A

SINGAPORE

GDP (QoQ)%

1Q A

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 8 of 8


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 3 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS •

Emerging-Market Stocks Drop on Malaysian Elections, North Korea. Emerging-market stocks dropped for a third day as Malaysian shares retreated on election concerns, tensions on the Korean peninsula escalated and falling commodity prices dragged down producers. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.3 percent to 1,026.57 as of 3:57 p.m. in Hong Kong, poised for a one-week low. Malaysian stocks slid as Prime Minister Najib Razak dissolved parliament in preparation for elections. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.2 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong retreated 0.5 percent. Malaysia’s KLCI fell 0.3 percent, the most since March 18.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS •

New Signs Point to Deeper Europe Malaise. Euro-Zone Unemployment Rose to 19 Million in February while manufacturing fell in March. Unemployment in the 17country euro zone rose 33,000 in February to more than 19 million, said the European Union's statistics office Eurostat, keeping the jobless rate at 12%, the highest level since the euro's creation. The purchasing managers' index for the euro-zone manufacturing sector fell to 46.8 in March, its lowest level since December, according to data-services provider Markit. A sub-50 reading in PMI surveys signals that business activity is falling. Tuesday's data releases add to evidence that the euro-zone economy contracted again in the first quarter, for the sixth quarter in a row. Only Germany and a few small euro members are thought to have grown in the first quarter.

Euro-Area March Inflation Slows Less Than Economists Estimated. Euro-area inflation slowed less than economists forecast in March as steeper price increases for services offset an easing in energy costs. Annual price growth in the 17-nation economy was 1.7 percent last month, down from 1.8 percent in February, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That compares with the 1.6 percent median of 44 economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The inflation rate moved below the European Central Bank’s 2 percent ceiling in February for the first time in more than two years. The ECB’s Governing Council meets tomorrow to decide on interest rates after a month in which euro-area leaders fumbled a bailout of Cyprus and the euro fell to its lowest level of the year against the dollar. The ECB probably will maintain its benchmark rate at a record low 0.75 percent at tomorrow’s meeting in Frankfurt, according to the median of 56 economist estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Cyprus Finance Minister Sarris Quits After Brokering Rescue. Cypriot Finance Minister Michael Sarris quit amid a probe into the island nation’s economic crisis, leaving the government eight days after helping it clinch an international bailout to stave off


financial collapse. Sarris told reporters in Nicosia today he was resigning because a government committee had been set up to investigate the country’s woes, including his time as chairman of Cyprus Popular Bank Pcl (CPB) last year. His replacement is Labor Minister Haris Georgiades, who will be sworn in at 9:30 a.m. tomorrow, according to a statement from the president’s office. Sarris, 66, announced his decision as the Cypriot government completed talks on the terms for the aid with the so- called troika of officials representing the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Union. The accord will be discussed at a euro working group meeting of finance officials on April 4. •

Austerity Drags on Slovenian Economy. Pressure is building on Slovenia, with the country's government bonds suffering bouts of weakness and fresh signs that costcutting measures are pinching the economy. Austerity measures, recession in major trade partners and efforts to clean up an overstretched banking sector will drag Slovenia's gross domestic product down 1.9% this year—a steeper decline that the central bank's earlier forecast of a 0.7% drop, the central bank said, Slovenian news agency STA reported Tuesday. The biggest drag on the economy continues to be heavily indebted state-owned banks, where loan losses are running far ahead of expectations. Yields on Slovenian government debt rose last week to their highest level in five months. Despite falling 0.06 percentage point on Tuesday, the yield on the Slovenian bond maturing in 2024 is still comparable to the levels seen in Portugal and Ireland before they were shut out of bond markets.

REGIONAL •

BOJ’s Kuroda Faces One-Year Window on Ending Deflation. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda gave himself two years to do “whatever it takes” to end deflation and revive the world’s third-largest economy. Kuroda needs price rises in six to 12 months or the market may lose confidence in his ability to reach a 2 percent inflation target by 2015, say Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. The BOJ will boost monthly bond purchases by about 50 percent to 5.2 trillion yen ($55.7 billion) at a twoday meeting starting today, according to the median forecast in a survey of economists by Bloomberg News. Pressure for results is growing amid doubts from economists and ex-BOJ officials over whether Kuroda can meet his deadline. Kuroda, who said yesterday that bold action is necessary to meet expectations, has indicated that expanded purchases of government bonds will be the main tool for easing.

China’s Service Industries Expanded at Faster Pace in March. China’s service industries expanded at a faster pace last month, supporting a further acceleration of growth in the world’s second-biggest economy. The non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 55.6 from 54.5 in February, the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement today. A separate services gauge from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 54.3, Page 2 of 7


matching the highest since May, from 52.1. Readings above 50 signal expansion. A pickup in industries from banking to transportation would bolster expansion after factory output had the weakest January- February growth since 2009. The logistics federation’s non-manufacturing index is based on responses from purchasing managers at 1,200 companies in 27 industries including banking, retailing, construction and transportation. •

Malaysia Prime Minister Faces Fresh Elections. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak dissolved parliament on Wednesday, making way for an election that analysts say he must win comfortably to avoid being unseated by his own party. In a live television broadcast, Mr. Najib said the country's king accepted his request to dissolve Parliament. Malaysia's Election Commission will set the date for polls after it hears from the country's state governments on when they will dissolve their respective assemblies. Elections must be held within the next 60 days, but it is widely expected they will come within a few weeks. The opposition won five of Malaysia's 13 states in the 2008 polling. Since that ballot, the opposition has edged up to 86 seats in Parliament through special elections, though it lost control of one state. Ceding more seats to the opposition could limit Mr. Najib's ambitions to liberalize the country's economy and propel it onto a faster growth path. A weaker mandate might spur a leadership challenge to Mr. Najib from within his party, analysts say, and could also hinder his efforts to push through unpopular reforms, such as proposals to reduce costly subsidies on food and cooking fuel.

Thailand Holds Benchmark Rate Even as Kittiratt Pushes for Cut. Thailand’s central bank held its interest rate for a fourth straight meeting and said it would raise its economic growth forecast, resisting the government’s calls for easing as it strives to cool currency gains. The Bank of Thailand kept its one-day bond repurchase rate unchanged at 2.75 percent, with the monetary policy committee voting five to one to hold, it said in Bangkok today. The central bank has rebuffed repeated calls by Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong for lower borrowing costs, as it grapples with rising inflows that have stoked credit growth and asset prices, and last month boosted the baht to its strongest level in almost 16 years. The central bank said today it will raise its gross domestic product estimate for a second time this year from 4.9 percent earlier, after faster-than-estimated expansion in the fourth quarter. The monetary authority said it will monitor foreign-exchange and capital flows, and that it is still concerned about high credit growth and elevated asset prices.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) IMF – Press Release: Bangladesh: Statement at the Conclusion of the IMF Mission on the Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement •

An IMF mission visited Dhaka March 20-April 2 to conduct discussions on the second review under a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. The ECF was approved on April Page 3 of 7


11, 2012 in a total amount equivalent to SDR 639.96 million. “Upon the Executive Board’s completion of this review, which is expected by late May 2013, SDR 91.4 million (about US$137 million) would be made available to Bangladesh, bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 274.3 million (about US$412 million),” indicated by Mr. David Cowen, the outgoing mission chief for Bangladesh, and Mr. Rodrigo Cubero, the incoming mission chief at a joint statement made at the conclusion of the visit. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13101.htm World Bank – Press Release: World Bank Group President Calls for a World Free of Poverty •

Calling for ambitious new goals to help the most vulnerable, World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim outlined a bold agenda for the global community toward ending extreme poverty by 2030 and promoting shared prosperity to boost the incomes of the poorest 40 percent of the population in each country. Speaking in advance of the upcoming World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, Kim observed that developing economies rebounded quickly from the crisis and are now in a fundamentally sound position, thanks to greater macroeconomic stability, a stronger rule of law, and increased investments in human capital and infrastructure. Productivity growth in the private sector, the source of 90 percent of all jobs, is high. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/04/02/world-bank-group-presidentcalls-world-free-poverty

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 2-Apr 3-Apr close China 6.23 6.21 6.20 6.20 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,777.00 9,739.00 9,747.00 Japan 86.75 94.46 93.44 93.63 Korea 1,064.40 1,119.28 1,117.98 1,117.60 Malaysia 3.06 3.11 3.09 3.08 Philippines 41.01 40.87 40.89 40.91 Singapore 1.22 1.25 1.24 1.24 Thailand 30.59 29.29 29.43 29.36 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,940.00 20,935.00 20,935.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change -0.03 0.00 -0.08 -0.20 0.03 0.12 -0.05 0.16 0.24 0.00

2013 YTD (%chg) 0.5 -0.2 -1.0 -6.7 -4.8 -1.6 -0.1 -1.4 3.3 -0.5

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,278.4 22,533.1 4,819.3 12,561.0 1,986.5 1,627.6 6,654.6 3,286.1 1,598.1 481.4

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 2-Apr 3-Apr 2.020 2.080 0.081 0.081 4.180 4.180 0.080 0.088 2.750 2.750

2-Apr 2,227.7 22,367.8 4,957.3 12,003.4 1,986.2 1,685.0 6,748.4 3,317.6 1,550.5 509.4 bps change 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.75 0.00

3-Apr 2,225.3 22,337.5 4,981.5 12,362.2 1,983.2 1,685.4 6,815.3 3,321.8 1,522.9 505.9

% change -0.11 -0.14 0.49 2.99 -0.15 0.02 0.99 0.13 -1.78 -0.69

2013 YTD (%chg) -1.9 -4.2 14.6 18.9 -2.4 0.6 16.3 3.7 8.2 20.9

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 2-Apr 3-Apr bps change 3.880 3.880 0.00 0.381 0.381 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.250 0.250 0.00 2.740 2.740 0.00

Page 4 of 7


Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

3.000 0.080 0.032 2.750 3.778

3.000 0.850 0.032 2.750 3.889

0.00 77.00 0.00 0.00 11.10

3.210 0.282 0.375 2.855 6.233

3.210 0.282 0.375 2.855 6.000

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -23.30

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 1-Apr 2-Apr bps change China 71.35 72.94 1.59 Hong Kong SAR 42.27 42.30 0.03 Indonesia 157.68 157.42 -0.26 Japan 73.56 75.02 1.47 Korea 76.29 80.32 4.04 Malaysia 85.45 86.47 1.01 Philippines 103.88 103.22 -0.66 Thailand 96.66 97.76 1.10 Vietnam 209.95 212.15 2.20 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 2-Apr 3-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,575.9 1,568.6 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change -0.46

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2013

31-Jul 3,240.0

31-Aug 3,272.9

30-Sep 3,285.1

31-Oct 3,287.4

30-Nov 3,297.7

31-Dec 3,311.6

31-Jan n.a

28-Feb n.a

296.3

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

304.7

304.8

106.6 1,272.8 314.4 134.5 79.8 244.1 175.3 20.0

109.0 1,273.2 316.9 134.9 80.7 246.2 179.2 20.8

110.2 1,277.0 322.0 137.5 82.0 252.1 183.6 21.3

110.3 1,274.2 323.5 138.3 81.7 254.2 181.5 n.a

111.3 1,270.9 326.1 139.1 83.9 255.8 181.6 n.a

112.8 1,268.1 327.0 139.7 83.8 259.3 181.6 n.a

108.8 1,267.3 328.9 140.2 85.3 258.8 181.6 n.a

105.2 1,258.8 327.4 140.3 83.6 259.1 179.2 n.a

31-Mar n.a n.a n.a n.a 327.4 140.6 n.a n.a 178.7

Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

Page 5 of 7

n.a


EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

3,311.6 304.8 105.2 1,258.8 327.4 140.6 83.6 259.1 178.7 21.3

521.2 149.4 55.5 70.4 156.7 56.7 20.1 121.5 68.2 30.9

572.8 752.6 43.9 2,371.0 126.7 30.4 8.5 964.3 60.7 10.0

Reserves over short-term debt

6.4 2.0 1.9 17.9 2.1 2.5 4.2 2.1 2.6 -

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -

Notes:

Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly. DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators

Country

PHILIPPINES SOUTH KOREA THAILAND CHINA HONG KONG

Expected Release Date 4/1/2013

4/3/2013

Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn) Foreign Exchange Reserve (USD bn) Benchmark Interest Rate China HSBC Services PMI Purchasing Managers Index

Period

Feb Mar Apr 3 Mar Mar

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (1 Apr – 5 Apr 2013)

Country

Indicators

Last

Previous

-11.7 327.4 2.75 54.3 50.5

-19.5 327.4 2.75 52.1 51.2

Period

INDONESIA

Consumer Confidence Index

Mar

INDONESIA

Total Imports (YoY)%

Feb

INDONESIA

Core Inflation (YoY)%

Mar

INDONESIA

Exports (YoY)%

Feb

INDONESIA

Inflation (YoY)%

Mar

INDONESIA

Inflation NSA (MoM)%

Mar

INDONESIA

Total Trade Balance (USD mn)

Feb

SOUTH KOREA

Core Consumer Price Index(YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Consumer Price Index (MoM)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Ext Trade - Imports (YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Ext Trade - Export (YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

HSBC Manufacturing PMI

Mar

THAILAND

Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Mar

THAILAND

Core CPI (YoY)%

Mar

PHILIPPINES

Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn)

Feb

SOUTH KOREA

Foreign Exchange Reserve (USD bn)

Mar

THAILAND

Benchmark Interest Rate

Apr 3

INDONESIA

Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)

Mar Page 6 of 7


INDONESIA

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar

CHINA

China HSBC Services PMI

Mar

HONG KONG

Purchasing Managers Index

Mar

4/4/2013

THAILAND

Consumer Confidence Economic

Mar

4/5/2013

MALAYSIA

Imports YoY%

Feb

MALAYSIA

Exports YoY%

Feb

THAILAND

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar 29

MALAYSIA

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar 29

JAPAN

Official Reserve Assets (USD bn)

Mar

PHILIPPINES

Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Mar

PHILIPPINES

Foreign Reserves (USD mn)

Mar

SINGAPORE

GDP (YoY)%

1Q A

SINGAPORE

GDP (QoQ)%

1Q A

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 7 of 7


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 4 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS •

Asia Stocks Pare Drop, Japan Reverses Losses. Asian stocks pared declines, with Japanese shares reversing losses, after the Bank of Japan expanded its stimulus program in its first policy decision under new governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) slid 0.6 percent to 134.11 as of 6:05 p.m. in Tokyo, paring a loss of as much as 1.1 percent. Japan’s Topix Index reversed declines of as much as 2 percent to close 2.7 percent higher. South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 1.2 percent, the most in four months, as the risk of conflict with North Korea curbed demand for the nation’s assets. Thai stocks erased losses after the nation’s anti-corruption agency dismissed a case against Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and the central bank ruled out the possibility of property-price controls. The benchmark SET Index (SET) rose 0.1 percent to 1,521.61 at 3:42 p.m. in Bangkok, rebounding from a slump of as much as 2.6 percent. Markets in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are closed today for a holiday.

WTI Trades Near Week’s Low as Oil Supplies Rise. West Texas Intermediate crude fluctuated after its biggest loss since November as stockpiles climbed to the highest level in 22 years in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. WTI for May delivery was at $94.52 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 7 cents, at 2:41 p.m. Singapore time. The volume of all futures traded was 44 percent above the 100-day average. The contract dropped $2.74 to $94.45 yesterday, the most since Nov. 20 and the lowest price since March 22. Brent for May settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange was at $107.58 a barrel, up 44 cents. It fell 3.2 percent to $107.11 yesterday, the lowest price since Dec. 7.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS •

Australian Retail Sales Increase as Rate Cuts Spur Spending. Australian retail sales rose four times faster than economists forecast in February, led by gains in household goods and department stores as interest-rate reductions encouraged spending. The local dollar advanced. Sales climbed 1.3 percent to A$21.95 billion ($23 billion) from a month earlier, when they rose a revised 1.2 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. That beat the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 22 economists for a 0.3 percent gain and was the biggest back-to-back gain in almost four years. The data validate Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens’s decision to hold rates this year after six reductions -- totaling 1.75 percentage points -- from November 2011 to December to help buttress the economy. Policy makers are trying to stimulate industries


outside mining, where investment is predicted to plateau this year, and offset the drag on the economy from a high currency. •

Cyprus Promises New Measures to Secure Rescue. Cyprus will limit first-class travel for senior officials, make it easier for banks to seize a person's home, and cut Easter bonuses to pensioners in exchange for a multibillion-euro bailout from its euro-zone peers and the International Monetary Fund. The country has promised spending cuts and tax increases equal to more than a tenth of its €17 billion ($21.8 billion) a year economy through 2018 in order to meet budget targets its creditors set. Other measures include raising retirement ages for public and private-sector workers, cuts to health-care spending and raising €1.4 billion from privatizations over the next five years, according to a draft document outlining parts of the deal.

Portuguese Government Survives No-Confidence Vote. Portugal's government survived a no-confidence vote in parliament, giving it breathing room before facing another serious hurdle—an anticipated high-court ruling that could derail the country's €78 billion ($100 billion) international bailout program. But the two challenges to the government's economic austerity measures shook the Portuguese stock market, which closed down 3.5% Wednesday. Stocks in Portuguese banks, which are also being hit by fears that depositors in struggling euro-zone countries may have to pay for future bailouts, sank by between 4% and 9%. The no-confidence motion was put forth by the main opposition Socialist party, which says the austerity measures are pushing Portugal deeper into recession.

Turkey Takes Steps Toward Europe. Ankara has taken steps to reaffirm ties with Brussels, despite angry rhetoric over a customs agreement with the European Union, in an effort to find shelter against troubling political and economic developments in its region. In an interview, Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan rejected calls by a minister and businessmen to withdraw from the customs union negotiated in 1996 with Turkey's biggest trading partner. The minister's intervention follows an announcement last week that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to visit Brussels for the first time in three years. That news came after France's move in February to lift a block on Ankara's membership negotiations after years of deadlock. Officials in Brussels and Ankara, however, remain concerned that more than seven years after Turkey's accession talks formally began, most of the negotiation issues remain unresolved. Government officials are urging Brussels to focus on Turkey's dynamic $786 billion economy as an engine that can help remedy euro-zone woes.

REGIONAL •

BOJ Doubles Bond Purchases in First Kuroda Easing Salvo. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda began his campaign to end 15 years of falling prices by doubling monthly bond purchases in a bid to reach 2 percent inflation in two years. With Kuroda Page 2 of 7


presiding over his first meeting, the board today temporarily suspended a cap on bond holdings and dropped a limit on the maturities of debt it buys. The BOJ will purchase 7 trillion yen ($74 billion) of bonds a month along with more risk assets, the central bank said in Tokyo. The yen fell the most since October 2011 and stocks surged, signaling Kuroda is winning investors’ confidence as he targets a doubling of the monetary base over two years to revive the world’s third-biggest economy. The BOJ said it changed the target for money-market operations from the overnight call rate to the monetary base -cash in circulation and the money that financial institutions have on deposit at the central bank. It predicts the measure will grow to 270 trillion yen by the end of 2014. The average remaining maturity of government bonds to be purchased by the bank will be about seven years under the new plan, compared with less than three previously. •

Japan's Car Makers Struggle in China. Japan's three major auto makers suffered continued sales setbacks in China last month, adding urgency to efforts to reignite sales in the vast but increasingly competitive market. Nissan said on Tuesday it sold about 110,000 cars in China last month, down 17% from a year earlier. By comparison, its China sales dropped by 14% in the first two months of the year combined. Also on Tuesday, Honda posted a 6.6% fall in March to 61,108 vehicles, compared with a 4% drop in the first two months. Toyota, Japan's largest car manufacturer by production, said its China sales slid 12% from a year earlier to 75,900 cars in March, less severe than the 13% drop in combined sales in the first two months of the year compared with a year earlier.

Oil Firms Test Myanmar Waters Cautiously. International oil companies are lining up for the right to prospect in untested waters off the coast of Myanmar. But uncertainty over how the once-isolated country will handle the projects and whether it will keep its commitments threaten to damp enthusiasm and delay much-needed revenue for one of Asia's poorest economies. Myanmar plans this month or next to accept bids from international investors for control of all its remaining offshore oil and natural-gas blocks—18 in deep water and seven in shallow water—covering much of the eastern half of the Bay of Bengal. The tender comes as President Thein Sein concludes months of lobbying abroad for foreign investment in a country that until two years ago was under international sanctions against its military junta. Myanmar already has foreign investment in some blocks, dating from before sanctions were imposed. Malaysia's Petroliam Nasional Bhd. has been producing natural gas from a shallow-water development since 2000. Another is operated by France's Total SA and U.S.-based Chevron Corp. And South Korea's Daewoo International Corp and Thailand's PTT Exploration & Production PLC this year are expected to start production at offshore wells that the government says will lift Myanmar's daily gas output to 2.2 billion cubic feet by 2015 from 1.4 billion today.

Page 3 of 7


IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) BIS – Working Paper: “The Great Financial Crisis: setting priorities for new statistics” •

The BIS has publicised the captioned working paper. “Every financial crisis brings in its wake demands for more information; the latest one is no exception. The main reason why crises occur is not lack of statistics but the failure to interpret them correctly and to take remedial action. But better statistics can no doubt be a big help. Priorities for new data collections include better property prices and, above all, comprehensive financial information for banks on a consolidated and global basis, covering their balance sheets but also their income statements.” http://www.bis.org/publ/work408.htm

IMF – Press Release: IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement with Cyprus on a €1 Billion Extended Fund Facility Arrangement •

The IMF has issued a statement on Cyprus. “A staff team of the International Monetary Fund has reached staff level agreement with the Cypriot authorities on an economic program that will be supported by the IMF jointly with the European Union and the European Central Bank. A combined financing package of €10 billion (about US$13 billion) is designed to help Cyprus cover its financing needs, including to service debt obligations, while it implements the policies needed to restore the health of the economy and regain access to capital market financing.” http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13103.htm

IMF – Press Release: Statement on Cyprus by Olli Rehn European Commission Vice-President and Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund •

The IMF has issued a joint statement on Cyprus made by the European Commission and IMF. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13102.htm

IMF – Working Papers •

The IMF has publicised the following working papers: •

“"Leaning Against the Wind" and the Timing of Monetary Policy” http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1386.pdf

“Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium” http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1385.pdf

OECD– Press Release: Aid to poor countries slips further as governments tighten budgets •

Development aid fell by 4% in real terms in 2012, following a 2% fall in 2011. The continuing financial crisis and euro zone turmoil has led several governments to tighten their budgets, which has had a direct impact on development aid. There is also a noticeable shift in aid allocations away from the poorest countries and towards middle-income countries. However, on the basis of the DAC Survey on Donors’ Forward Spending Plans, a moderate recovery in aid levels is expected in 2013. http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/aidtopoorcountriesslipsfurtherasgovernmentstightenbudgets. htm

OECD– Publication: “Consumer Price Index – Updated as at 3 April 2013” •

Consumer prices in the OECD area rose by 1.8% in the year to February 2013, compared with 1.7% in the year to January 2013. This slight increase in the annual rate of inflation masks opposing movements in energy and food prices. Energy price inflation accelerated to 3.4% in February, up from 1.8% in January, while food price inflation slowed to 1.8% in February, Page 4 of 7


compared with 2.1% in January. Excluding food and energy, the OECD annual inflation rate was broadly stable at 1.6% in February. http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/consumerpricesoecd-updated3april2013.htm (Press Release) http://www.oecd.org/std/prices-ppp/CPI_04_13.pdf (OECD Consumer Price Index) http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MEI_PRICES (Links to Underlying Data – OECD StatExtracts) FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 3-Apr 4-Apr close China 6.23 6.21 6.20 6.21 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,777.00 9,747.00 9,749.00 Japan 86.75 94.46 93.04 95.41 Korea 1,064.40 1,119.28 1,117.60 1,123.71 Malaysia 3.06 3.11 3.08 3.08 Philippines 41.01 40.87 40.91 41.23 Singapore 1.22 1.25 1.24 1.24 Thailand 30.59 29.29 29.35 29.36 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,940.00 20,935.00 20,935.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change -0.07 -0.01 -0.02 -2.48 -0.54 0.13 -0.79 -0.15 -0.03 0.00

2013 YTD (%chg) 0.4 -0.2 -1.0 -8.5 -5.4 -1.4 -0.9 -1.6 3.3 -0.5

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,278.4 22,533.1 4,819.3 12,561.0 1,986.5 1,627.6 6,654.6 3,286.1 1,598.1 481.4

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 3-Apr 4-Apr 2.080 2.080 0.081 0.081 4.180 4.180 0.088 0.098 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000 0.850 1.963 0.019 0.019 2.750 2.750 3.889 3.500

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 2-Apr China 72.94 Hong Kong SAR 42.30 Indonesia 157.42 Japan 75.02 Korea 80.32 Malaysia 86.47 Philippines 103.22 Thailand 97.76 Vietnam 212.15

3-Apr 71.48 42.34 155.97 75.52 81.33 87.47 104.25 97.30 211.19

3-Apr 2,225.3 22,337.5 4,981.5 12,362.2 1,983.2 1,685.4 6,815.3 3,321.8 1,520.5 505.9 bps change 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 111.30 0.00 0.00 -38.90

4-Apr 2,225.3 22,337.5 4,922.6 12,634.5 1,959.5 1,688.5 6,783.7 3,307.8 1,526.2 497.4

% change 0.00 0.00 -1.18 2.20 -1.20 0.18 -0.46 -0.42 0.37 -1.70

2013 YTD (%chg) -1.9 -4.2 13.3 21.5 -3.5 0.8 15.7 3.3 8.4 18.9

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 3-Apr 4-Apr bps change 3.880 3.880 0.00 0.381 0.381 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.250 0.250 0.00 2.740 2.740 0.00 3.210 3.210 0.00 0.282 0.403 12.10 0.375 0.375 0.00 2.855 2.855 0.00 6.000 6.000 0.00

bps change -1.46 0.03 -1.45 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.03 -0.47 -0.96

Page 5 of 7


Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 3-Apr 4-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,557.9 1,545.9 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change -0.77

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2013

31-Jul 3,240.0

31-Aug 3,272.9

30-Sep 3,285.1

31-Oct 3,287.4

30-Nov 3,297.7

31-Dec 3,311.6

31-Jan n.a

28-Feb n.a

296.3

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

304.7

304.8

106.6 1,272.8 314.4 134.5 79.8 244.1 175.3 20.0

109.0 1,273.2 316.9 134.9 80.7 246.2 179.2 20.8

110.2 1,277.0 322.0 137.5 82.0 252.1 183.6 21.3

110.3 1,274.2 323.5 138.3 81.7 254.2 181.5 n.a

111.3 1,270.9 326.1 139.1 83.9 255.8 181.6 n.a

112.8 1,268.1 327.0 139.7 83.8 259.3 181.6 n.a

108.8 1,267.3 328.9 140.2 85.3 258.8 181.6 n.a

105.2 1,258.8 327.4 140.3 83.6 259.1 179.2 n.a

31-Mar n.a n.a n.a n.a 327.4 140.6 n.a n.a 178.7 n.a

Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

3,311.6 304.8 105.2 1,258.8 327.4 140.6 83.6 259.1 178.7 21.3

521.2 149.4 55.5 70.4 156.7 56.7 20.1 121.5 68.1 30.9

572.8 752.6 43.9 2,371.0 126.7 30.4 8.5 964.3 60.7 10.0

Reserves over short-term debt

6.4 2.0 1.9 17.9 2.1 2.5 4.2 2.1 2.6 -

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -

Page 6 of 7


Notes:

Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly. DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators

Country THAILAND

Expected Release Date 4/1/2013

Consumer Confidence Economic

Period Mar

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (1 Apr – 5 Apr 2013)

Country

Indicators

Last

Previous

74.3

75.0

Period

INDONESIA

Consumer Confidence Index

Mar

INDONESIA

Total Imports (YoY)%

Feb

INDONESIA

Core Inflation (YoY)%

Mar

INDONESIA

Exports (YoY)%

Feb

INDONESIA

Inflation (YoY)%

Mar

INDONESIA

Inflation NSA (MoM)%

Mar

INDONESIA

Total Trade Balance (USD mn)

Feb

SOUTH KOREA

Core Consumer Price Index(YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Consumer Price Index (MoM)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Ext Trade - Imports (YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

Ext Trade - Export (YoY)%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

HSBC Manufacturing PMI

Mar

THAILAND

Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Mar

THAILAND

Core CPI (YoY)%

Mar

PHILIPPINES

Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn)

Feb

SOUTH KOREA

Foreign Exchange Reserve (USD bn)

Mar

THAILAND

Benchmark Interest Rate

Apr 3

INDONESIA

Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)

Mar

INDONESIA

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar

CHINA

China HSBC Services PMI

Mar

HONG KONG

Purchasing Managers Index

Mar

4/4/2013

THAILAND

Consumer Confidence Economic

Mar

4/5/2013

MALAYSIA

Imports YoY%

Feb

MALAYSIA

Exports YoY%

Feb

THAILAND

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar 29

MALAYSIA

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar 29

JAPAN

Official Reserve Assets (USD bn)

Mar

PHILIPPINES

Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Mar

PHILIPPINES

Foreign Reserves (USD mn)

Mar

SINGAPORE

GDP (YoY)%

1Q A

SINGAPORE

GDP (QoQ)%

1Q A

4/3/2013

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 7 of 7


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 8 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS •

Asian stocks rose, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbing to a 4 1/2-year high after the Bank of Japan’s unprecedented stimulus. Meanwhile, Chinese and Taiwanese shares fell after more infections from a deadly new strain of bird flu. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 133.94 as of 5:14 p.m. in Tokyo. The yen’s weakness muted the impact on the dollar-denominated regional benchmark index of a surge in Tokyo-listed companies. The measure has advanced the last five months as Japanese shares increased on speculation the nation will deploy more stimulus and amid signs the U.S. economy is recovering. Yen weakens beyond 99 per Dollar for first time since May 2009. The yen dropped against all its 16 major counterparts for a third day after BOJ officials said last week they will boost monthly bond purchases to 7.5 trillion yen ($75.9 billion). The yen fell 1.3 percent to 98.82 per dollar at 9:32 a.m. London time after sliding to 99.01, the weakest level since May 8, 2009. The currency tumbled 3.4 percent last week. The yen declined 1.4 percent to 128.57 per euro after depreciating to 128.75, the least since January 2010. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil rebounded after the biggest weekly drop in six months. WTI for May delivery advanced as much as 69 cents to $93.39 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $93.36 at 8:48 a.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was 14 percent below the 100-day average. The contract slid 56 cents to $92.70 on April 5, the lowest close since March 21. Meanwhile, Brent for May settlement rose 89 cents to $105.01 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 46 percent above the 100-day average. The contract slumped 2.1 percent to $104.12 on April 5.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS •

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that while a substantial portion of the global economy appears better now than a year ago, some risks persist. In her remarks at the Boao Forum for Asia in China yesterday, Lagarde said that growth continues to strengthen and broaden among the emerging and developing economies, and momentum is starting to pick up in the US. Christine Lagarde has welcomed the huge monetary stimulus plan unveiled by Japan and says it will help to boost global growth at a time when the outlook is already starting to improve. In the meantime, she said that risks include a patchy recovery with concerns that naturally centre on Europe. Moreover, she said that fiscal risks are also weighing on growth, citing spending cuts in the U.S. and a medium-term challenge in Japan.


Portugal faces fresh cuts to spending. Portugal’s prime minister says the government will have to cut spending on health, education and social security to keep the country’s €78bn bailout programme on track. Pedro Passos Coelho made a televised address on Sunday after the constitutional court rejected austerity measures considered essential to meeting mandatory deficit targets. The premier said the court’s rejection of planned austerity measures posed a serious risk to Lisbon’s ability to comply with the adjustment programme and its effort to regain access to international bond markets by a September deadline. India’s central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said that India probably won’t suffer a repeat of its 1991 financing crisis even as it faces a record current-account deficit. The deficit swelled to $32.6 billion in the quarter ended Dec. 31, or 6.7 percent of gross domestic product, stoked by gold and oil imports and subdued exports. Subbarao said the imbalance in the widest measure of trade isn’t “sustainable,” exceeds the desired level of 2.5 percent of GDP and is “worrying” as it comes amid slowing economic growth. The present-day deficit has led the nation to change policies since September by easing curbs and levies on capital inflows. India has also cut interest rates to boost faltering growth.

REGIONAL •

China clears renminbi-Aussie direct trading. Direct currency trading between the Australian dollar and the renminbi will begin this week, Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard said on Monday. “This will be a huge advantage for Australia, not only for our big businesses, but also for our small and medium enterprises that want to do business here,” Ms Gillard told reporters during a visit to Shanghai. The Australian dollar will become only the third currency to trade directly with the Chinese currency, alongside the US dollar and the Japanese yen, after ANZ and Westpac were given trading clearance by the Chinese central bank.

China says it can manage H7N9 virus as infections rise. China tried to ease concerns that a new strain of bird influenza will spark an epidemic as authorities reported three more infections of the deadly H7N9 virus that’s killed six people since March. Ma Xiaowei, a vice minister at China National Health and Family Planning Commission, said that they are confident of dealing with this effectively. He said that China has adequate amount of anti-flu medicines, and has also started to study the production of vaccines.

Japan rebounded to a current-account surplus in February as a depreciating yen and record monetary stimulus boost the outlook for a revival in the economy. The surplus, the first in four months, was 637.4 billion yen ($6.5 billion), the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo today. That number exceeded the 457.5 billion median estimates of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. In the current account data, the income surplus rose 13 percent to 1.4 trillion yen in February from a year earlier, today’s data showed. Page 2 of 6


Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak pledged to fight corruption, bring down living costs and build a pan-Borneo expressway if his coalition retains power. Prime Minister Najib promised more specialist graft courts and greater public disclosure of government contracts if the National Front is allowed to extend its 55 years of unbroken rule. Among the pledges are more affordable housing, and improved health care and transportation, including a high-speed rail link between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

The Philippines and Papua New Guinea (PNG) eye deals for rice and fishery development. The Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) is preparing the groundwork for a technical cooperation agreement on rice production and fisheries with PNG that could provide investment opportunities for Filipino firms engaged in the two sectors. PNG is seeking the Philippines’ assistance on rice production technology, while in return it may give the Philippines access to its fishing grounds for a fee.

Vietnamese firms rush to export rice despite limitations. According to a recent report by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, there has been a sharp increase in the number of companies seeking a licence to export rice. There are 100 companies in the country meeting the necessary requirements for a rice-export licence stipulated in the Government Decree 109, and 40 others that can possibly meet them. The stipulations include having a warehouse with a capacity of at least 5,000 tonnes, a rice husking mill with a capacity of at least 10 tonnes of rice per hour, and capacity to export at least 10,000 tonnes of rice a year. The country turns out 42-43 million tonnes of rice per year of which only 7.5 million tonnes can be exported.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) G20 – Press Release: G20 Public Debt Management seminar was held in Moscow •

On 2-3 April, a high-level seminar "Public Debt Management under Non-Conventional Conditions on Debt Markets" took place in Moscow within the framework of Russian G20 presidency. The meeting was devoted to the discussion of major characteristics of non-conventional conditions on global and national debt markets, role of public debt managers and challenges for them within new macroeconomic conditions, the evolution of local and global debt markets infrastructure. The participants concerned the necessity to review national borrowing strategies and the role of multilaterally agreed guidelines in their formulation and implementation. The issue of revising and updating the guidelines on public debt management taking into account the lessons learned from the latest global financial and economic crisis was also discussed. http://www.g20.org/news/20130403/781278932.html

IMF – Speech: Fulfilling the Asian Dream—Lasting Growth and Shared Prosperity •

The IMF has publicised the remarks made by Miss Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF pertaining to the above-stated topic at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference, Hainan, China on April 7, 2013 http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2013/040713.htm Page 3 of 6


FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 5-Apr 8-Apr close China 6.23 6.21 6.21 6.20 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.77 7.77 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,753.00 9,753.00 9,751.00 Japan 86.75 97.57 97.57 98.77 Korea 1,064.40 1,131.69 1,131.69 1,140.15 Malaysia 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06 Philippines 41.01 41.18 41.18 41.30 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.24 1.24 Thailand 30.59 29.25 29.25 29.24 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,925.00 20,925.00 20,933.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change 0.04 0.02 0.02 -1.21 -0.74 -0.02 -0.30 -0.10 0.03 -0.04

2013 YTD (%chg) 0.5 -0.2 -1.0 -11.6 -6.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.7 3.7 -0.4

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,225.3 21,726.9 4,926.1 12,833.6 1,927.2 1,688.7 6,727.1 3,299.8 1,489.5 502.6

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 5-Apr 8-Apr 2.080 1.800 0.082 0.082 4.180 4.180 0.100 0.083 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000 1.871 2.097 0.030 0.030 2.750 2.750 2.975 2.600

5-Apr 2,225.3 21,726.9 4,926.1 12,833.6 1,927.2 1,688.7 6,727.1 3,299.8 1,489.5 502.6

bps change -28.00 0.00 0.00 -1.75 0.00 0.00 22.60 0.00 0.00 -37.50

8-Apr

% change

2,211.6 21,718.1 4,897.5 13,192.6 1,918.7 1,688.0 6,732.2 3,288.5 1,489.5 506.7

-0.62 -0.04 -0.58 2.80 -0.44 -0.04 0.08 -0.34 0.00 0.81

2013 YTD (%chg) -2.5 -6.8 12.7 26.9 -5.5 0.8 14.9 2.7 5.8 21.1

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 5-Apr 8-Apr bps change 3.880 3.882 0.14 0.381 0.379 -0.14 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.247 0.238 -0.83 2.730 2.730 0.00 3.210 3.210 0.00 0.379 0.352 -2.70 0.373 0.373 0.00 2.855 2.855 0.00 5.833 5.717 -11.60

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 4-Apr 5-Apr bps change China 71.48 72.00 0.53 Hong Kong SAR 42.34 42.34 0.00 Indonesia 155.97 155.10 -0.87 Japan 75.54 73.15 -2.39 Korea 81.33 84.31 2.98 Malaysia 87.47 88.50 1.03 Philippines 104.25 104.37 0.12 Thailand 97.30 97.34 0.05 Vietnam 211.19 211.31 0.13 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 5-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per ounce)

1,581.3

8-Apr 1,577.1

% change -0.26

Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

Page 4 of 6


CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2013

31-Jul 3,240.0

31-Aug 3,272.9

30-Sep 3,285.1

31-Oct 3,287.4

30-Nov 3,297.7

31-Dec 3,311.6

31-Jan n.a

28-Feb n.a

31-Mar

296.3

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

304.7

304.8

n.a

106.6 1,272.8 314.4 134.5 79.8 244.1 175.3 20.0

109.0 1,273.2 316.9 134.9 80.7 246.2 179.2 20.8

110.2 1,277.0 322.0 137.5 82.0 252.1 183.6 21.3

110.3 1,274.2 323.5 138.3 81.7 254.2 181.5 n.a

111.3 1,270.9 326.1 139.1 83.9 255.8 181.6 n.a

112.8 1,268.1 327.0 139.7 83.8 259.3 181.6 n.a

108.8 1,267.3 328.9 140.2 85.3 258.8 181.6 n.a

105.2 1,258.8 327.4 140.3 83.6 259.1 179.2 n.a

104.8

n.a

1,254.4 327.4 139.7 84.1 n.a 177.8 n.a

Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

3,311.6 304.8 105.2 1,254.4 327.4 139.7 84.1 259.1 177.8 21.3

521.2 149.4 55.5 70.4 156.7 56.7 20.1 121.5 68.1 30.9

572.8 752.6 43.9 2,371.0 126.7 30.4 8.5 964.3 60.7 10.0

Reserves over short-term debt

6.4 2.0 1.9 17.8 2.1 2.5 4.2 2.1 2.6 -

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -

Notes:

Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly.

Page 5 of 6


DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators

Country

JAPAN JAPAN HONG KONG SINGAPORE Expected Release Date 4/8/2013

4/9/2013 4/10/2013

4/11/2013

4/12/2013

Current Account Total (JPY bn) Current Account Balance YOY% Foreign Currency Reserves (USD bn) Foreign Reserves (USD mn)

Period

Feb Feb Mar Mar

Last

Previous

637.4 -47.0 303.8 258.17

-364.8 -19.9 304.8 259.14

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (1 Apr – 5 Apr 2013)

Country INDONESIA JAPAN JAPAN HONG KONG SINGAPORE CHINA CHINA CHINA PHILIPPINES SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA JAPAN SOUTH KOREA INDONESIA THAILAND SOUTH KOREA SINGAPORE SINGAPORE

Indicators Consumer Confidence Index Current Account Total (JPY bn) Current Account Balance YOY% Foreign Currency Reserves (USD bn) Foreign Reserves (USD mn) Producer Price Index (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% New Yuan Loans (RMB bn) Total Exports (YoY)% Bank Lending to HH (KRW Tln) Unemployment Rate (SA)% Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports YoY% Imports YoY% Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD bn) Machine Orders YOY% South Korea 7-Day Repo Rate % Bank Indonesia Reference Rate% Foreign Reserves (USD bn) South Korea FDI (YoY)% GDP (QoQ)% GDP (YoY)%

Period Mar Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Feb Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 5 1Q 1Q A 1Q A

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 6 of 6


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 9 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8)

MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 

Asian Stocks Rise as Nikkei remain high on stimulus measures. Asian stocks rose, led by commodity producers, as Chinese inflation rose less than economists forecast, damping concern that the nation’s central bank will need to tighten monetary policy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) gained 0.6 percent to 134.75 as of 3:26 p.m. in Tokyo, rising for a second day. About four stocks advanced for each that three fell on the gauge. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) closed little changed at a 4 1/2 year high. Japanese shares have led five months of gains on the regional Asian benchmark as stimulus has been deployed amid signs the U.S. economy is recovering. Yen Strengthens From Four-Year Low as Decline Seen Too Rapid. The yen strengthened from its weakest level versus the dollar since May 2009 as traders bet its recent decline has been too rapid. The Japanese currency advanced versus all of its 16 major peers, halting a three-day 6.4 percent plunge against the greenback, the most since 1988. The yen gained 0.4 percent to 98.95 per dollar at 9:04 a.m. London time after earlier declining as much as 0.3 percent to 99.66, the weakest level since May 7, 2009. WTI Oil Rises a Second Day as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Seen Gaining. West Texas Intermediate rose a second day, extending a rebound from a technical support level. U.S. crude stockpiles probably increased from the highest in 22 years, a Bloomberg survey showed before a government report. Futures gained as much as 0.5 percent in New York after advancing 0.7 percent yesterday, the most in two weeks. Prices capped the biggest weekly decline in six months on April 5, while failing to settle below the 100-day moving average. Oil also climbed after China reported inflation eased more than forecast last month. WTI for May delivery advanced as much as 46 cents to $93.82 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $93.60 at 3:03 p.m. Singapore time.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS 

German Exports Fell in February Amid Euro-Area Recession. German exports fell more than economists forecast in February as the euro area, the country’s biggest trading partner, struggled to emerge from recession. Exports, adjusted for working days and seasonal changes, dropped 1.5 percent from January, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Imports fell 3.8 percent. Germany’s economy, Europe’s largest, probably returned to growth in the first quarter after contracting 0.6 percent in the final three months of last year. Still, renewed financial-market turmoil after inconclusive elections in Italy and a bailout in Cyprus may delay a recovery in the 17-nation euro area.


Bernanke Says Fed to Press Banks to Curb Liquidity Risk. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the Fed plans to avert strains in the banking system by pushing financial companies to better manage liquidity risk and reduce reliance on wholesale funding. Regulators “will continue to press banks to reduce further their dependence on wholesale funding, which proved highly unreliable during the crisis,” Bernanke said in a speech yesterday in Stone Mountain, Georgia. “Banks of all sizes need to further strengthen their ability to identify, quantify and manage their liquidity risks.” Slovenia Faces ‘Severe’ Banking Crisis in Recession, OECD Says. Slovenia, hit hard by a boom-bust cycle and the euro area’s debt woes, faces a “severe” banking crisis if it doesn’t act quickly, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development said. The Alpine nation should recapitalize “distressed, viable banks” while holders of subordinated debt and “lower-ranked hybrid capital instruments should absorb losses,” the Paris- based OECD said in a report today. State-owned banks such as Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. and Nova Kreditna Banka Maribor d.d. should be sold and nonviable banks should be wound down, it said.

REGIONAL 

China Tightening Pressure Eases With March Inflation. China’s inflation eased more than forecast from a 10-month high as food-price gains ebbed, reducing pressure on policy makers to tighten credit as the world’s second-largest economy recovers from a slowdown. The consumer price index rose 2.1 percent in March from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing. That compares with the 2.5 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg news survey of 38 economists and a 3.2 percent gain in February when spending for the Lunar New Year holiday pushed up prices. Slowing price gains are a boost for Premier Li Keqiang as he seeks to sustain a rebound from the economy’s weakest annual expansion in 13 years. Authorities have drained cash from the financial system this year, with central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan saying that China should be on “high alert” after February’s inflation figure exceeded forecasts.

Laos views development gap as major challenge. Wealth distribution remains a major challenge despite the government's efforts to tackle the development gap since 2011. According to a report from the Ministry of Planning and Investment, while the economy has grown by at least eight percent annually over the past two and a half years, average per capita income throughout the country is still low. In the central region the figure stood at US$1,680 in the 2011-12 fiscal year, while in the north and south of the country it was US$985 and US$1,060 respectively, the planning ministry reported in its mid term report. The government vowed to address the growing development gap in 2011. International financial institutions such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and other development partners also vowed to support the Lao government in achieving its ambition. However, at the mid-way point in the Page 2 of 7


country's five year socio-economic development plan, the disparity in development has yet to be resolved. 

Thai Baht Jumps Most in Five Years as Japan Easing Fuels Inflows. Thailand’s baht jumped the most in five years, breaching 29 per dollar for the first time since 1997, as demand for the nation’s bonds rose amid unprecedented monetary easing in Japan. Stocks fell to a nine-week low. The currency jumped 1.1 percent from its April 5 close to 28.99 against the greenback as of 1:41 p.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest advance since Feb. 29, 2008, when the central bank announced plans to scrap capital controls that restricted inflows. The yield on sovereign debt due June 2023 fell three basis points to 3.46 percent, the lowest level since Nov. 6. Local financial markets were shut yesterday for a holiday. Today’s baht gains were “too fast” and the Bank of Thailand is ready to intervene if the currency’s moves are not consistent with fundamentals, Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said today in Bangkok. Capital controls are not being considered, he added. Global funds bought $292 million more Thai government debt than they sold last week, adding to net purchases of $9.6 billion in the first quarter, official data show. That compares with $31 billion for the whole of 2012.

Economic restructuring still slow going in Vietnam. Vietnam's economy is showing signs of recovery, backed by decreasing inflation, an improved trade balance, and increased currency reserves. But the Central Institute for Economic Management warned the national economy has yet to address its perennial vulnerabilities, such as the inaccessibility of bank loans for businesses, low purchasing power, low investment, bad debts, and excess industrial inventories. In times of economic stagnation, Vietnam can usually rely on its traditional agricultural production. However, highly subsidized cotton planting and fruit and vegetable processing are revealing weaknesses. The country's garment and footwear industries have yet to justify their leading industrial positions. Except for the agro-forestry and fishery sector, the construction-industry and service sectors have failed to meet expectations.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) ADB – Publication: Asia's Future Prosperity Requires Major Change in Energy Use 

Asia is moving along a dangerously unsustainable energy path that will result in environmental disaster and a gaping divide in energy access between rich and poor unless the region dramatically changes course, says a new ADB report. “Asia could be consuming more than half the world’s energy supply by 2035, and without radical changes carbon dioxide emissions will double,” said ADB Chief Economist Changyong Rhee. “Asia must both contain rising demand and explore cleaner energy options, which will require creativity and resolve, with policymakers having to grapple with politically difficult issues like fuel subsidies and regional energy market integration.” http://www.adb.org/news/asias-future-prosperity-requires-major-change-energy-use (Press Release)

Page 3 of 7


http://wcm.adb.org/publications/asian-development-outlook-2013-asias-energychallenge (Publication: Asian Development Outlook 2013) ADB – Publication: Developing Asia's Growth Steps Up to 6.6% in 2013  Rising private consumption and stronger intraregional trade will spur a pickup in growth in developing Asia in 2013 and 2014, as economic activity in the US and Europe remains in the doldrums, the ADB says in a major new report. “The rebound in People’s Republic of China (PRC) and solid momentum in Southeast Asia are lifting the region’s pace after the softer performance of 2012,” said ADB Chief Economist Changyong Rhee. “Domestic spending, in particular consumption, is the main driver of the recovery, and is a welcome shift from the reliance on the markets of advanced economies.” http://www.adb.org/news/developing-asias-growth-steps-66-2013 (Press Release) http://wcm.adb.org/publications/asian-development-outlook-2013-asias-energychallenge (Publication: Asian Development Outlook 2013) ADB – Publication: People's Republic of China Growth to Rebound in 2013, But Level Off in 2014 

Strong consumption and fiscal spending in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will fuel a rebound in growth in 2013, but government steps to cool pressures on the environment and to narrow income gaps will limit the upside in 2014, says a new ADB report. “The country’s new leaders are focused on delivering sustainable, quality growth, which is a welcome change from the growth-at-all-costs approach of the past,” said ADB Chief Economist Changyong Rhee. “They will face a difficult task in managing risks and keeping the economy on an even keel, while shepherding through the complex reforms needed to deliver more inclusive growth.” http://www.adb.org/news/peoples-republic-china-growth-rebound-2013-level-2013 (Press Release) http://wcm.adb.org/publications/asian-development-outlook-2013-asias-energy-challenge (Publication: Asian Development Outlook 2013)

ADB – Publication: Philippines Growth Strong But More and Better Jobs Required 

The Philippine economy is expected to sustain strong growth in 2013 and 2014, with inflation within the policy target, but the challenge is to make growth more inclusive by stimulating employment, says a new ADB report. “Governance reforms and prudent macroeconomic management have laid the foundation for strong growth. The recent investment grade rating affirms the improved macroeconomic fundamentals and investment environment,” said Neeraj Jain, ADB's Country Director for the Philippines. “A stronger industrial base is vital for increasing jobs, and will help make growth more inclusive and sustainable.” http://www.adb.org/news/philippines-growth-strong-more-and-better-jobs-required (Press Release) http://wcm.adb.org/publications/asian-development-outlook-2013-asias-energy-challenge (Publication: Asian Development Outlook 2013)

BIS – Working Paper: Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China 

The BIS has publicised the above-stated working paper. Page 4 of 7


http://www.bis.org/publ/work409.htm IMF – Press Release: IMF Executive Board Reviews the Policy on Debt Limits in FundSupported Programs 

On March 22, 2013, the Executive Board of the IMF reviewed the policy on debt limits in Fund-supported programs. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2013/pn1343.htm (Press Release) http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/030113.pdf (Policy Paper)

IMF – Speech: IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde Meets President Xi Jinping, Other State Leaders, and Participates in Boao Forum for Asia 

The IMF has publicised the statement made by Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF at the Boao Forum for Asia, Hainan Province, China on April 8, 2013. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13106.htm

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 8-Apr 9-Apr close China 6.23 6.21 6.20 6.20 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.77 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,753.00 9,751.00 9,718.00 Japan 86.75 97.57 99.36 98.95 Korea 1,064.40 1,131.69 1,140.15 1,139.33 Malaysia 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.04 Philippines 41.01 41.18 41.30 41.18 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.24 1.24 Thailand 30.59 29.25 29.23 29.01 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,925.00 20,925.00 20,905.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change 0.02 -0.01 0.34 0.41 0.07 0.69 0.29 0.23 0.76 0.10

2013 YTD (%chg) 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -11.7 -6.6 0.0 -0.8 -1.5 4.6 -0.3

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,225.3 21,726.9 4,926.1 12,833.6 1,927.2 1,688.7 6,727.1 3,299.8 1,489.5 502.6

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 8-Apr 9-Apr 1.800 2.500 0.082 0.081 4.180 4.180 0.083 0.095 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000 2.097 2.097 0.022 0.022 2.750 2.750 2.600 3.010

8-Apr 2,211.6 21,718.1 4,897.5 13,192.6 1,918.7 1,688.0 6,732.2 3,284.6 1,489.5 506.7

bps change 70.00 -0.07 0.00 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.00

9-Apr 2,225.8 21,870.3 4,899.6 13,192.4 1,920.7 1,690.3 6,732.2 3,296.6 1,477.6 510.5

% change 0.64 0.70 0.04 0.00 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.36 -0.80 0.76

2013 YTD (%chg) -1.9 -6.2 12.7 26.9 -5.4 0.9 14.9 3.0 5.0 22.0

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 8-Apr 9-Apr bps change 3.882 3.881 -0.06 0.379 0.379 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.238 0.237 -0.17 2.720 2.720 0.00 3.210 3.210 0.00 0.352 0.352 0.00 0.373 0.372 -0.17 2.855 2.855 0.00 5.717 5.800 8.30

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS)

Page 5 of 7


5-Apr 8-Apr bps change China 72.00 71.07 -0.94 Hong Kong SAR 42.34 42.36 0.02 Indonesia 155.10 150.38 -4.72 Japan 73.15 73.20 0.05 Korea 84.31 84.87 0.56 Malaysia 88.50 88.57 0.07 Philippines 104.37 99.70 -4.67 Thailand 97.34 97.41 0.07 Vietnam 211.31 211.47 0.16 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 8-Apr 9-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,573.5 1,573.4 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change 0.00

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 31-Jul China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

31-Aug

30-Sep

2013

31-Oct

30-Nov

31-Dec

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

3,240.0

3,272.9

3,285.1

3,287.4

3,297.7

3,311.6

n.a

n.a

n.a

296.3

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

304.7

304.8

303.8

106.6

109.0

110.2

110.3

111.3

112.8

108.8

105.2

104.8

1,272.8

1,273.2

1,277.0

1,274.2

1,270.9

1,268.1

1,267.3

1,258.8

1,254.4

314.4

316.9

322.0

323.5

326.1

327.0

328.9

327.4

327.4

134.5

134.9

137.5

138.3

139.1

139.7

140.2

140.3

139.7

79.8

80.7

82.0

81.7

83.9

83.8

85.3

83.6

84.1

244.1

246.2

252.1

254.2

255.8

259.3

258.8

259.1

258.2

175.3

179.2

183.6

181.5

181.6

181.6

181.6

179.2

177.8

20.0 20.8 21.3 Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

21.4

23.2

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS

China

Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

3,311.6

521.2

540.9

Reserves over short-term debt

6.4

5.8

Page 6 of 7


304.8 149.4 2.0 Hong Kong SAR 752.6 55.5 1.9 Indonesia 105.2 43.9 1,254.4 70.4 17.8 Japan 2,371.0 156.7 2.1 Korea 327.4 126.7 139.7 56.7 2.5 Malaysia 30.4 20.1 4.2 Philippines 84.1 8.5 259.1 121.5 2.1 Singapore 964.3 68.1 2.6 Thailand 177.8 60.6 21.3 30.9 Vietnam 10.0 Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly. DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators

Country

CHINA CHINA VIETNAM

Producer Price Index (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Domestic Vehicle Sales (YoY)%

Period

Mar Mar Mar

Last

0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -

Previous

-1.9 2.1 -1.7

-1.6 3.2 -40.4

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (1 Apr – 5 Apr 2013)

Expected Release Date 4/8/2013

4/9/2013 4/10/2013

4/11/2013

4/12/2013

Country INDONESIA JAPAN JAPAN HONG KONG SINGAPORE CHINA CHINA CHINA PHILIPPINES SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA JAPAN SOUTH KOREA INDONESIA THAILAND SOUTH KOREA SINGAPORE SINGAPORE

Indicators Consumer Confidence Index Current Account Total (JPY bn) Current Account Balance YOY% Foreign Currency Reserves (USD bn) Foreign Reserves (USD mn) Producer Price Index (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% New Yuan Loans (RMB bn) Total Exports (YoY)% Bank Lending to HH (KRW Tln) Unemployment Rate (SA)% Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports YoY% Imports YoY% Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD bn) Machine Orders YOY% South Korea 7-Day Repo Rate % Bank Indonesia Reference Rate% Foreign Reserves (USD bn) South Korea FDI (YoY)% GDP (QoQ)% GDP (YoY)%

Period Mar Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Feb Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 5 1Q 1Q A 1Q A

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 7 of 7


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 10 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS •

Asian Stocks Rise Third Day as Japan Banks Advance. Asian stocks rose, with the benchmark regional equities gauge heading for its longest winning streak in seven weeks, as investors speculated stimulus measures will boost economic growth and increase profits. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest bank, rose to the highest since June 2009 as speculation grew that Bank of Japan stimulus measures will boost earnings at financial-services firms. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) advanced 0.9 percent to 135.96 as of 3:40 p.m. in Tokyo. About two stocks rose for each that fell. The measure has risen for three days as Chinese economic reports point to reduced chances of further tightening in the world’s second-largest economy. Yen Slides as BOJ Easing Spurs Bets on Further Drop. The yen fell 0.2 percent to 99.25 per dollar at 8:32 a.m. in London after declining to 99.66 yesterday, the weakest level since May 7, 2009. Japan’s currency dropped 0.4 percent to 130.12 per euro. Meanwhile, the euro gained for a fifth day against the dollar, the longest winning streak this year, and approached a key technical level as Europe’s bailout fund said a bond sale drew strong demand. WTI Drops From One-Week High as U.S. Crude Supplies Climb. West Texas Intermediate fell from the highest price in almost a week after U.S. crude stockpiles increased to the largest since 1981 and Chinese imports of the commodity dropped. WTI for May delivery slid as much as 44 cents to $93.76 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $93.82 at 3:01 p.m. Singapore time. The volume of all futures traded was 50 percent below the 100-day average. The contract increased 84 cents to $94.20 yesterday, the biggest gain since March 26 and the highest close since April 3. Prices are up 2.2 percent this year.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS •

Job Openings at Five-Year High Signal U.S. Rebound. Job openings climbed in February to the highest level in almost five years, signaling U.S. employers were preparing to expand before federal government budget cuts took effect last month. The number of positions waiting to be filled rose by 314,000 to 3.93 million, the most since May 2008, from a revised 3.61 million the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The pace of hiring increased to a three-month high. The report, which followed data last week showing payroll gains cooled in March from a one-year high, indicates the labor market was gaining momentum before across-the-board cuts in government spending went into effect on March 1. Federal Reserve policy makers are


waiting for a sustained pickup in hiring and a drop in the unemployment rate before tapering record stimulus. European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) Sells 8 Billion Euros of Bonds on Strong Demand in Asia. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) issued 8 billion euros ($10.5 billion) of bonds amid strong investor demand in Asia, helping boost the euro to its highest levels in more than three weeks. The European rescue fund sold 0.875 percent, five-year securities yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Investors in Asia made up 29 percent of the buyer base, up from 5 percent on EFSF’s 4 billion euros of March 2016 bonds issued in February, according to a person familiar with the transaction, who asked not to be identified citing lack of authorization to speak publicly.

REGIONAL •

China Exports Miss Forecasts. China’s exports rose less than forecast for the first time in four months, fueling concerns about the outlook for trade and the quality of the data as the government said some companies file false customs declarations. Shipments abroad increased 10 percent in March from a year earlier, the customs administration said today in Beijing, while imports rose by an above-forecast 14.1 percent, leaving an unexpected trade deficit of $880 million. Exports to Hong Kong rose by 92.9 percent, the most in 18 years, raising questions on data quality. The customs agency acknowledged concerns that the data may be overstated at a press briefing today while standing by its figures and saying the Hong Kong gains stem from different statistical methods. Sales to the U.S. and Europe both fell for the first time since November, leaving the world’s second- largest economy with weaker global demand to support a recovery. The customs agency has made an initial investigation into possible money flows disguised as trade with Hong Kong, and the customs administration will work with other bodies to better understand the trade growth between China and Hong Kong.

Volatility of JGBs has recently increased. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s unprecedented stimulus has increased JGB volatility. Historical price volatility of Japanese government bonds maturing in more than 10 years has jumped 12 percentage points this year to 14.8 percent on a 10-day reading, the second highest among the 25 sovereign markets tracked by the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies and Bloomberg, with the highest volatility registered by Greek bonds. Swings for Greek bonds fell 15.6 points to 20.8 percent. By comparison, JGBs were the least volatile globally at the end of 2011. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond has climbed 9 1/2 basis points in the past three days to 0.555 percent today. The 20-year rate has soared 20 basis points in the same period to 1.335 percent after last week touching an almost decade low of 0.845 percent.

Page 2 of 6


WTO membership returns mixed results for Vietnam according to report. A report by the Central Institute for Economic Management in Viet Nam found that in the five-year period between 2007-11, agriculture, forestry, fishery, trade and foreign investment all declined compared with the 2002-06 period, as did the economy as a whole. The gross domestic product reached only 6.5 percent, which was 1.3 percentage points lower than the previous five-year period. Trade, the sector expected to develop the most, recorded an annual growth rate of 19.5 percent. The Ministry of Planning and Investment said the ratio of disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) capital over registered FDI dropped from 52.4 percent in the 2002-06 period to 34 percent.

Japan to play major role in rice industry in Myanmar. Industry sources say the cooperation comes amid a bid for both Japan and Myanmar to bolster deeper economic ties. Two potential joint ventures between Myanmar Agribusiness Public Corporation (Mapco) and Japanese conglomerates, Mitsui & Co and Mitsubishi Group, may propel Myanmar forward as one of the region's key rice exporters. Mapco and Mitsui plan to establish the Integrated Rice Complex Project, a network of rice-milling and processing plants in Myanmar that will supply countries along the Ivory Coast with low-quality (25 percent broken) rice.

Philippine February exports post steepest drop in 14 months. Export earnings in February 2013 amounted to $3.741 billion, a 15.6 percent decline from $4.430 billion recorded in February of 2012. Similarly, on a monthly basis, it decreased by 6.7 percent from $4.011 billion posted in January 2013. The fall in exports was due to negative year-on-year change in machinery and transport equipment, special transactions, electronic products and articles of apparel and clothing accessories. Accounting for 39.7 percent of the total exports revenue in February 2013, Electronic Products emerged as the country’s top export with total receipts of $1.483 billion. It went down by 36.5 percent from $2.334 billion registered in February 2012.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) FSB – Press Release: Peer review on the FSB Principles for Reducing Reliance on CRA Ratings •

The FSB launched in March 2013 a thematic peer review on the FSB Principles for Reducing Reliance on Credit Rating Agency (CRA) Ratings. As part of this review, the FSB invites feedback from financial institutions, industry associations and other stakeholders on good practices for assessing, removing and/or replacing references to CRA ratings in laws and regulations, as well as on ways to both encourage disclosure by financial institutions of information about their credit assessment processes and to further strengthen those processes. Feedback should be submitted to the FSB by 7 May 2013. For additional information, see the questionnaire sent to national authorities for completion. http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_130408.pdf (Questionnaire)

IMF – Publication: “World Economic Outlook: Hopes, Realities and Risks” Page 3 of 6


The IMF has publicised two new analytical chapters of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) namely (1) Chapter 3 - The Dog That Didn’t Bark: Has Inflation Been Muzzled Or Was It Just Sleeping? and (2) Chapter 4 – Breaking through the Frontier: Can Today’s Dynamic Low Income Countries Make It on April 9, 2013? http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/index.htm (Press Release) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/text.pdf (Publication: WEO Analytical Chapters 3 and 4) http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2013/tr040913.htm (Transcript of WEO Analytical Chapters Press Conference)

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 9-Apr 10-Apr close China 6.23 6.21 6.20 6.19 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.77 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,753.00 9,718.00 9,692.00 Japan 86.75 97.57 99.02 99.44 Korea 1,064.40 1,131.69 1,139.33 1,135.97 Malaysia 3.06 3.06 3.04 3.03 Philippines 41.01 41.18 41.18 40.99 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.24 1.24 Thailand 30.59 29.25 28.94 29.04 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,925.00 20,905.00 20,865.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change 0.14 0.01 0.27 -0.42 0.30 0.22 0.46 0.15 -0.34 0.19

2013 YTD (%chg) 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -12.2 -6.4 0.2 -0.3 -1.4 4.4 -0.1

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,225.3 21,726.9 4,926.1 12,833.6 1,927.2 1,688.7 6,727.1 3,299.8 1,489.5 502.6

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 9-Apr 10-Apr 2.500 2.130 0.081 0.081 4.180 4.180 0.095 0.098 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000 2.097 1.901 0.032 0.032 2.750 2.750 3.010 2.750

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 8-Apr China 71.07 Hong Kong SAR 42.36 Indonesia 150.38 Japan 73.20 Korea 84.87

9-Apr 71.08 42.38 147.92 72.97 82.89

9-Apr 2,225.8 21,870.3 4,899.6 13,192.4 1,920.7 1,690.3 6,732.2 3,296.6 1,470.7 510.5 bps change -37.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 -19.60 0.00 0.00 -26.00

10-Apr 2,226.1 22,034.6 4,877.5 13,288.1 1,935.6 1,696.2 6,815.8 3,293.3 1,483.3 496.5

% change 0.02 0.75 -0.45 0.73 0.77 0.35 1.24 -0.10 0.86 -2.74

2013 YTD (%chg) -1.9 -5.5 12.2 27.8 -4.7 1.3 16.3 2.9 5.4 18.7

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 9-Apr 10-Apr bps change 3.881 3.882 0.06 0.379 0.379 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.237 0.237 0.00 2.720 2.720 0.00 3.210 3.210 0.00 0.352 0.352 0.00 0.372 0.372 0.00 2.855 2.855 0.00 5.800 5.729 -7.10

bps change 0.01 0.02 -2.46 -0.22 -1.97

Page 4 of 6


Malaysia 88.57 87.59 -0.98 Philippines 99.70 99.70 0.00 Thailand 97.41 96.43 -0.99 Vietnam 211.47 211.44 -0.03 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 9-Apr 10-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,585.4 1,581.5 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change -0.24

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 31-Jul China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

31-Aug

30-Sep

2013

31-Oct

30-Nov

31-Dec

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

3,240.0

3,272.9

3,285.1

3,287.4

3,297.7

3,311.6

n.a

n.a

n.a

296.3

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

304.7

304.8

303.8

106.6

109.0

110.2

110.3

111.3

112.8

108.8

105.2

104.8

1,272.8

1,273.2

1,277.0

1,274.2

1,270.9

1,268.1

1,267.3

1,258.8

1,254.4

314.4

316.9

322.0

323.5

326.1

327.0

328.9

327.4

327.4

134.5

134.9

137.5

138.3

139.1

139.7

140.2

140.3

139.7

79.8

80.7

82.0

81.7

83.9

83.8

85.3

83.6

84.1

244.1

246.2

252.1

254.2

255.8

259.3

258.8

259.1

258.2

175.3

179.2

183.6

181.5

181.6

181.6

181.6

179.2

177.8

20.0 20.8 21.3 Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

21.4

23.2

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia

Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

3,311.6 304.8 105.2 1,254.4 327.4 139.7

521.2 149.4 55.5 70.4 156.7 56.7

540.9 752.6 43.9 2,371.0 126.7 30.4

Reserves over short-term debt

6.4 2.0 1.9 17.8 2.1 2.5

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6

Page 5 of 6


20.1 4.2 Philippines 84.1 8.5 259.1 121.5 2.1 Singapore 964.3 68.1 2.6 Thailand 177.8 60.6 21.3 30.9 Vietnam 10.0 Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly. DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators

Country

PHILIPPINES SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA CHINA CHINA CHINA Expected Release Date 4/8/2013

4/9/2013 4/10/2013

4/11/2013

4/12/2013

Total Exports (YoY)% Bank Lending to HH (KRW Tln) Unemployment Rate (SA)% Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports YoY% Imports YoY%

Period

Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar

Last

9.9 0.3 2.9 -

Previous

-15.6 461.6 3.2 -0.88 10 14.1

-2.7 461.5 3.5 15.25 21.8 -15.2

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (1 Apr – 5 Apr 2013)

Country INDONESIA JAPAN JAPAN HONG KONG SINGAPORE CHINA CHINA CHINA PHILIPPINES SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA JAPAN SOUTH KOREA INDONESIA THAILAND SOUTH KOREA SINGAPORE SINGAPORE

Indicators Consumer Confidence Index Current Account Total (JPY bn) Current Account Balance YOY% Foreign Currency Reserves (USD bn) Foreign Reserves (USD mn) Producer Price Index (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% New Yuan Loans (RMB bn) Total Exports (YoY)% Bank Lending to HH (KRW Tln) Unemployment Rate (SA)% Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports YoY% Imports YoY% Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD bn) Machine Orders YOY% South Korea 7-Day Repo Rate % Bank Indonesia Reference Rate% Foreign Reserves (USD bn) South Korea FDI (YoY)% GDP (QoQ)% GDP (YoY)%

Period Mar Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Feb Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 5 1Q 1Q A 1Q A

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 6 of 6


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 16 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS •

Asian stocks fell, dragging the regional benchmark equities gauge lower for a second day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.5 percent to 136.40 as of 5:12 p.m. in Tokyo, paring an earlier loss of as much as 1 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 0.4 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.5 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.6 percent and South Korea’s Kospi Index added 0.1 percent.

Yen, dollar decline as investors seek yield on gold recovery. The yen and dollar weakened, paring their gains yesterday, as a recovery in gold and U.S. stock futures damped demand for the safest currencies. The yen dropped at least 0.9 percent against all 16 of its major counterparts. The yen declined 1.1 percent to 127.58 per euro and dropped 1.1 percent to 97.79 per dollar. The dollar fell 0.1 percent to $1.3050 per euro. Gold and oil were off lows in Asian trading after Monday's heavy losses. The yellow metal was up 1.0 percent at $1,365.60 an ounce, recovering from a 9.4 percent plunge overnight. Oil fell 1.4 percent to $87.45 a barrel, and although the price of copper picked up on Tuesday it was still smarting from a 3 percent overnight decline.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS •

Euro zone inflation continues to ease in March. Inflationary pressures eased further in March in the 17 countries using the euro, spurred by a continued downward trend in energy prices, data from the EU statistics agency showed. Annual euro zone inflation fell to 1.7 percent in March, Eurostat said, compared to the European Central Bank's target of close to but not above 2 percent. The figure was in line with the average expectations of 41 economists polled by Reuters, and confirmed Eurostat's flash inflation estimate made earlier this month. Easing inflation and the weak economy could provide added impetus for European central bankers to consider lowering rates when they meet on May 2, with some economists citing the bloc's rigid inflation target as hampering a return to economic expansion after three years of debt crisis.

Workforce dropouts loom as Fed weighs tighter policy. The droves of Americans who have abandoned hope of finding a job should make the Federal Reserve hesitant to remove its support for the economy, according to a study that makes a bold argument for a sustained easy monetary policy. The findings of the study were the buzz of a highprofile conference at the Boston Federal Reserve Bank last week on how best to return employment to pre-recession levels. The share of working-age Americans who either have a job or are looking for work has fallen to its lowest in 34 years. For Fed


policymakers, that's a sharp reminder that the labor market remains ill despite a gradual decline in the unemployment rate since the Great Recession ended in 2009. Indeed, the dropouts are the main reason the jobless rate has declined. •

Central banks at ease limit risk political backlash. Central banks are setting new expectations for monetary policy that may be hard to reverse as they slide deeper into the realms of fiscal policy. To save their economies from debt crises or slow growth, the Bank of Japan is uniting with a new government by aiming to lift inflation to 2 percent by 2015, and the European Central Bank stands ready to purchase bonds of stressed nations. The Bank of England now has more room to ignore price pressures and is discussing with politicians how to ease credit further, while the Federal Reserve has extended more than $1 trillion worth of unprecedented credit to a single industry: housing. The defense for activism is that monetary authorities need to protect their inflation goals from the possibility of Japan-style disinflation if governments don’t boost demand. The risk is they’re left doing the work of those governments -- or even financing them, creating precedents they may be pressured to extend or repeat in the future.

New York Fed manufacturing growth slows in April. The pace of growth in New York state manufacturing slowed more than expected in April as new orders tumbled, the latest data to suggest the economy lost some steam heading into the second quarter, data from the New York Federal Reserve showed on Monday. The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index fell to 3.05, from 9.24 in March, short of economists' forecasts for a smaller decline to 7. New orders dropped to 2.20 from 8.18. Inventories improved modestly though still remained in contraction territory, rising to minus 4.55 from minus 5.38. Prices paid rose to the highest level since May 2012, at 28.41 from 25.81.

REGIONAL •

South Korea unveils fiscal package to support growth. South Korea unveiled a 17.3 trillion won ($15.4 billion) supplementary budget to support exporters pressured by a weaker Japanese currency and revive an economy that grew last year at the slowest pace since 2009. The package will boost growth by 0.3 percentage points and create 40,000 jobs, the Finance Ministry said in a statement in Sejong. The net increase is 5.3 trillion won after covering expected revenue shortfalls, the government said. Another 2 trillion won will be available for support measures from outside the budget, it said. The government plan may boost consumption and confidence as China’s economy shows signs of weakness and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un ratchets up threats against the U.S. and the South.

BOJ's Kuroda urges action on public spending. The Bank of Japan governor urged the government to take steps on both revenue and spending as public finances are on an Page 2 of 7


unsustainable path. Haruhiko Kuroda, speaking in parliament, also told lawmakers that a planned increase in sales tax is among the steps needed as Japan struggles to contain its debt burden, which is proportionally the worst among major economies. Earlier this month, the BOJ agreed to double the government debt it holds to strengthen monetary expansion, but there are concerns the BOJ will end up bankrolling fiscal spending unless the government takes tough steps to reduce the debt burden. "Public finances in their current state are unsustainable, so the revenue side and the spending side need to be addressed," Kuroda said in the lower house budget committee. Earlier this year, the BOJ and the government issued a joint statement in which the central bank agreed to pursue a 2 percent inflation target to end years of nagging deflation. In the statement, the government also pledged to pursue sound fiscal policy, which many say is necessary to dispel fears that the government will use additional monetary easing as a licence to spend more. •

Railway spending up in China. China spent 54.5 billion yuan ($8.8 billion) on railway infrastructure construction in the first quarter, up 28 percent from a year earlier, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing China Railway Corp., the newly created state-owned company. The total budget for railway investment this year has been set at 650 billion yuan, up from 631 billion yuan in 2012. Of that total, 520 billion yuan is earmarked for railway infrastructure construction, the report said. Some 5,200 kilometers (3,231 miles) of new railway track will be laid this year, it said. In March, China began overhauling its massive but troubled railway system by inviting greater participation from private investors, possible including foreigners.

Moody's lowers China outlook after Fitch downgrade. Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday affirmed China's government's bond rating of Aa3 but cut the outlook to stable from positive, the second pessimistic revision by a foreign ratings agency this month. Last week, Fitch Ratings cut China's long-term local currency credit rating to A-plus from AA-minus, citing concerns about the risk that excessive local government borrowing posed to the wider economy. Moody's referred to the same issue in justifying its negative revision. Moody's said it affirmed the Aa3 rating because of China's credit fundamentals, which have been underpinned by continued robust economic growth, strong central government finances and an exceptionally strong external payments position.

BOJ shockwave leveling rates sends banks to dollar. Shizuoka Bank Ltd. joined Japanese national lenders in expanding U.S. dollar finance activity, anticipating monetary easing will crush margins on yen loans. The nation’s second-biggest regional bank by market value raised $500 million in zero-coupon notes due 2018, the first public sale of dollardenominated convertible bonds by a Japanese company since 2002. The average interest rate on long-term yen loans from the country’s lenders fell to 0.942 percent in February, compared with 3.348 percent companies worldwide pay on dollar facilitie. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. plans to increase energy and utility financing in the Page 3 of 7


U.S., as the Bank of Japan’s focus on cutting long-term borrowing costs undercuts earnings from yen loans, President Nobuyuki Hirano said. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. aims to sell a record amount of dollar bonds this year for overseas business, even as the BOJ policy seeks to spur domestic lending to revive the economy. •

Indonesia raises 1.22 trln rph at sharia bond auction, below target. Indonesia's finance ministry sold 1.22 trillion rupiah ($125.62 million) of government sharia bonds at an auction on Tuesday, below target of 1.5 trillion rupiah, the ministry's debt office said in a statement. Total incoming bids were 2.925 trillion rupiah, with the highest bid-tocover ratio 3.15 for the 14-year project-based sukuk. There were no winning bids for 5and 7-year project-based sukuk.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) ADBI – Working Paper: “Association of Southeast Asian Nations, People's Republic of China, and India Growth and the Rest of the World: The Role of Trade” •

The ADBI has publicised the captioned working paper. “This paper explores the impact of past and future growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the People's Republic of China (PRC), and India—the ACI countries—on aggregate welfare, relative wages, and global emissions in the rest of the world. It outlines several analytical frameworks, considers effects over the past decade and, based on consensus forecasts, the implications of that growth for the rest of the world in the decades to come.” http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.04.15.wp416.asean.prc.india.growth.role.trade.pdf

FSB - Publication: “OTC Derivatives Market Reforms” - Fifth Progress Report on Implementation •

The FSB published on 15 April the fifth progress report on the implementation of overthe-counter (OTC) derivatives market reforms. The April 2013 edition of this twiceyearly series of reports takes stock of progress made by standard-setting bodies, national and regional authorities and market participants towards meeting the G20 commitments to OTC derivatives market reforms. http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/press/pr_130415.pdf (Press Release) http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_130415.pdf (Report)

G20 – Press Release: Global Finance in Transition conference to take place in Istanbul •

On May 7-8, Istanbul (Turkey) will host the Global Finance in Transition conference which is co-organized by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee and the Russian Ministry of Finance. Five panel discussions are planned as part of the event. They will cover the international financial architecture, in particular, changes in the flow of global investments, local bond markets and growth in emerging economies, incentives and determinants of investment and other issues. In addition it is expected that new instruments and incentives for making the global financial system safer will be suggested during the forum. http://www.g20.org/news/20130415/781287568.html

Page 4 of 7


IMF – Press Release: Statement by the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF on Greece •

The European Commission, ECB and IMF have issued a joint statement on Greece after the conclusion of their review mission to Greece. “The mission and the authorities agreed that the economic outlook is largely unchanged from the previous review, with continued prospects for a gradual return to growth in 2014, supported by inflation well below the euro area average and improved wage flexibility, which are helping to restore the competitiveness of the Greek economy. The Eurogroup and the IMF’s Executive Board are expected to consider approval of the Review in May.” http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13120.htm

IMF – Publication: “Rethinking Macro Policy II: Getting Granular” •

The IMF has publicised a Staff Discussion Note pertaining to the above-stated topic. “This note explores how the economic thinking about macroeconomic management has evolved since the crisis began. It follows up on the earlier “Rethinking” paper, refining the analysis in light of the events of the past two years. It discusses developments in monetary policy, including unconventional measures; the challenges associated with increased public debt; and the policy potential, risks, and institutional challenges associated with new macroprudential measures.” http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2013/sdn1303.pdf

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 15-Apr 16-Apr close China 6.23 6.19 6.19 6.18 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,714.00 9,714.00 9,717.00 Japan 86.75 98.37 96.77 97.71 Korea 1,064.40 1,129.40 1,120.48 1,115.14 Malaysia 3.06 3.04 3.04 3.04 Philippines 41.01 41.32 41.26 41.32 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.24 1.24 Thailand 30.59 29.05 29.13 29.06 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,855.00 20,865.00 20,918.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change 0.06 0.00 -0.03 -0.96 0.48 0.00 -0.15 0.21 0.24 -0.25

2013 YTD (%chg) 0.8 -0.2 -0.7 -10.6 -4.6 -0.2 -1.1 -1.3 4.4 -0.4

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,206.8 22,089.1 4,937.2 13,485.1 1,924.2 1,698.5 6,891.4 3,294.2 1,527.3 494.3

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 15-Apr 16-Apr 2.050 2.010 0.081 0.081 4.180 4.180 0.073 0.093 2.750 2.750

15-Apr 2,181.9 21,772.7 4,894.6 13,275.7 1,920.5 1,697.8 6,837.8 3,284.4 1,527.3 480.0 bps change -4.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00

16-Apr 2,194.8 21,672.0 4,945.3 13,221.4 1,922.2 1,700.5 6,786.3 3,287.6 1,527.3 478.1

% change 0.59 -0.46 1.04 -0.41 0.09 0.16 -0.75 0.10 0.00 -0.41

2013 YTD (%chg) -3.3 -7.0 13.8 27.2 -5.4 1.5 15.8 2.7 8.5 14.3

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 15-Apr 16-Apr bps change 3.880 3.880 0.01 0.377 0.377 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.234 0.232 -0.25 2.760 2.760 0.00

Page 5 of 7


Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

3.000 0.451 0.028 2.750 2.712

3.000 1.941 0.028 2.750 2.500

0.00 149.00 0.00 0.00 -21.20

3.210 0.352 0.371 2.855 5.800

3.210 0.363 0.371 2.855 5.950

0.00 1.10 0.00 0.00 15.00

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 12-Apr 15-Apr bps change China 68.20 68.50 0.30 Hong Kong SAR 42.42 42.69 0.27 Indonesia 138.90 138.04 -0.86 Japan 68.88 69.12 0.24 Korea 80.51 81.37 0.85 Malaysia 83.27 83.33 0.07 Philippines 95.08 95.26 0.18 Thailand 92.11 91.69 -0.42 Vietnam 206.91 207.05 0.15 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 15-Apr 16-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,348.2 1,376.8 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change 2.12

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 31-Jul China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

31-Aug

30-Sep

2013

31-Oct

30-Nov

31-Dec

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

3,240.0

3,272.9

3,285.1

3,287.4

3,297.7

3,311.6

n.a

n.a

3,440.0

296.3

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

304.7

304.8

303.8

106.6

109.0

110.2

110.3

111.3

112.8

108.8

105.2

104.8

1,272.8

1,273.2

1,277.0

1,274.2

1,270.9

1,268.1

1,267.3

1,258.8

1,254.4

314.4

316.9

322.0

323.5

326.1

327.0

328.9

327.4

327.4

134.5

134.9

137.5

138.3

139.1

139.7

140.2

140.3

139.7

79.8

80.7

82.0

81.7

83.9

83.8

85.3

83.6

84.1

244.1

246.2

252.1

254.2

255.8

259.3

258.8

259.1

258.2

175.3

179.2

183.6

181.5

181.6

181.6

181.6

179.2

177.8

20.0 20.8 21.3 Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

21.4

23.2

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Page 6 of 7


EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

Reserves over short-term debt

3,311.6 521.2 6.4 China 540.9 304.8 149.4 2.0 Hong Kong SAR 752.6 55.5 1.9 Indonesia 105.2 43.9 1,254.4 70.4 17.8 Japan 2,371.0 156.7 2.1 Korea 327.4 126.7 139.7 56.7 2.5 Malaysia 30.4 20.1 4.2 Philippines 84.1 8.5 259.1 121.5 2.1 Singapore 964.3 68.1 2.6 Thailand 177.8 60.6 21.3 30.9 Vietnam 10.0 Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly.

Expected Release Date 4/15/2013

4/17/2013

4/18/2013

4/19/2013

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (15 Apr – 19 Apr 2013)

Country JAPAN CHINA CHINA CHINA JAPAN SINGAPORE PHILIPPINES CHINA CHINA SOUTH KOREA SINGAPORE SINGAPORE JAPAN MALAYSIA HONG KONG JAPAN JAPAN JAPAN THAILAND

Indicators Capacity Utilization (MoM)% Industrial Production (YoY)% Real GDP (QoQ)% Actual FDI (YoY)% Industrial Production YOY% Retail Sales (YoY)% Overseas Remittances (YoY)% Retail Sales (YoY)% Real GDP (YoY)% Producer Price Index (YoY)% Electronic Exports (YoY)% Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY)% Consumer Confidence CPI YoY % Unemployment Rate SA% Merchnds Trade Balance Total (JPY bn) Merchnds Trade Exports YoY % All Industry Activity Index (MoM) % Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Period Feb F Mar 1Q Mar Feb F Feb Feb Mar 1Q Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Feb Apr 12

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 7 of 7

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 17 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS •

Asian shares recover from recent losses. Asian stock markets were mostly higher while Japanese exporters advanced as the yen resumed its weakening trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 1.2 percent, rebounding from the longest losing streak in three months. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased 0.5 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite declined 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.1 percent. European shares sank by over one percent, as investors positioned for sluggish growth in the euro area and ongoing monetary policy easing in the U.S. and Japan.

Dollar rises Vs Yen as U.S. data lift sentiment. The U.S. dollar climbed against the yen as risk appetite returned following strong economic data and a rebound in stocks. The dollar was at ¥98.27 from ¥97.53 late New York trading. The euro was unchanged at $1.3175 and at ¥129.48 from ¥128.53. Gold, which has been leading a liquidation of assets across the board remained volatile despite its recovery and was last trading at $1,383.65, still up around 1 percent.

WTI crude fluctuates near four-month low as U.S. supplies drop. WTI for May delivery was at $88.80 a barrel, down 8 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 3:19 p.m. Singapore time. The volume of all futures traded was 23 percent above the 100-day average. Brent for June settlement rose 18 cents to $100.09 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract fell 72 cents to $99.91 yesterday, the lowest close since July 10.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS •

Europe car sales heading for 20-year low on German slide. European car sales are sliding to a 20-year low after a plunge in Germany last month removed the main buffer for automakers across the region and record unemployment choked consumer demand. Registrations in March fell 10 percent to 1.35 million vehicles, the 18th consecutive monthly decline, with Germany’s auto market plummeting 17 percent, the Brusselsbased European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, or ACEA, said in a statement. First-quarter deliveries in the region dropped 9.7 percent to 3.1 million cars.

U.S. inflation, factory data favor continued Fed easing. Consumer prices fell in March for the first time in four months and factory output slipped, strengthening the argument for the Federal Reserve to maintain its monetary stimulus to speed up economic growth. Other data on Tuesday suggested the housing market recovery was losing


momentum, even though housing starts breached the 1-million unit rate mark for the first time since June 2008. The Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index edged down 0.2 percent last month as gasoline prices tumbled, unwinding some of February's 0.7 percent increase. Prices had increased 2.0 percent year-on-year in February. Stripping out volatile energy and food costs, the so-called core CPI was up only 0.1 percent after gaining 0.2 percent in February. That lowered the 12-month increase to 1.9 percent in March from 2.0 percent in February. •

Slovenia looks to avoid EU bailout with early debt buyback. Euro zone member Slovenia, struggling to avoid becoming the currency bloc's next bailout case after Cyprus, will attempt an early rollover of debt to calm markets and ease pressure on its finances. If successful, the move could buy time for Prime Minister Alenka Bratusek's four-week-old government to clean up its loss-making state-owned banks, sell public assets and push through austerity steps to cut the swollen budget deficit. Following last month's chaotic rescue of Cyprus, Ljubljana's borrowing costs have jumped close to the 7 percent threshold at which finances can become unsustainable, complicating its need to borrow to fund its budget deficit. With markets speculating on how much cash the government holds in its coffers - Finance Minister Uros Cufer says it has enough money to stay solvent until October - that poses a problem ahead of a short-term debt redemption slated for June 6. But the ministry has created a plan in which it will auction 500 million euros ($654.20 million) of 18-month treasury bills and then, probably tapping some of its cash reserves, buy back 855 million euros of the bills coming due at a small discount.

Cyprus Finance Minister sees gold sale within next months. The Cypriot government plans to sell part of its gold reserves within the next months, a decision that needs to be approved by the country’s central bank, Finance Minister Haris Georgiades said. “The exact details of it will be formulated in due course primarily by the board of the central bank,” Georgiades said. Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades is trying to unlock 10 billion euros ($13.2 billion) of loans from the euro area and the International Monetary Fund. To do so, he must come up with a further 11 billion euros through measures including a tax on bank deposits of more than 100,000 euros at the country’s two biggest banks, the sale of assets and gold and other tax measures.

REGIONAL •

Thai central bank not ruling out strong measures to curb robust baht. The Bank of Thailand has not ruled out strong measures to halt the baht's rise but its monetary policy committee (MPC) believes the central bank has the means to address the problem if needed, according to minutes of its April meeting. "The MPC discussed the potential drivers of recent capital inflow and baht appreciation, including the misperception by some market participants that the Bank of Thailand had ruled out strong policy responses," the minutes published on Wednesday said. "The MPC, Page 2 of 7


however, was satisfied that the BOT's current exchange rate management framework already entailed systematic steps of policy responses, with specific measures ready to be implemented if and when warranted by the circumstances. The baht has risen almost 6 percent against the dollar this year, by some distance the biggest rise among Asian currencies. The export industry has expressed concern about the baht's rise and Finance Minister Kittirat Na Ranong has repeatedly called for interest rates to be cut to diminish the allure of the currency. •

State Bank of Vietnam aims to crack down on inefficient banks. The State Bank of Viet Nam has moved to eliminate inefficient credit institutions during the 2013-15 period. In a recent directive, the central bank asked credit institutions to perform a comprehensive review of their internal operations and take corrective measures to ensure they are both earning a profit and operating in compliance with all current laws and regulations. Institutions that incur losses will be closed or merged into other institutions. The review will include all domestic and foreign subsidiaries, transaction offices, savings funds and representative offices of credit institutions. Restructuring plans are due by April 30.

•

Singapore's March NODX improves slightly. Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) recovered slightly in March after a poor performance in January and February. On a year-on-year basis, NODX fell 4.8 percent in March, following the 30.6 percent decline in the previous month. Economists were expecting exports to fall 6.3 percent. The improved data was helped by an upturn in the global electronics industry.Exports of electronics products dropped 17.9 percent in March, after the 27.4 percent decline in the previous month. Exports to all of the top 10 NODX markets, except Japan and China, decreased in March. The top three contributors to the NODX contraction were the European Union, Malaysia and the US.

•

ASEAN urged to work on connectivity. ASEAN has been called upon to work on its connectivity towards full foreign ownership, adoption of regional electronic procedures and implementation of 24-hour port operations, in order to remain competitive, by imposing a minimum baseline to relieve certain shipments of import duties and employment of an effective security screening process. According to the ASEAN-EU Business Summit 2013 position paper, ASEAN should commit to a timeline for full foreign ownership in the logistics sector, covering aviation, maritime sectors and supporting services, such as customs brokerage. The adoption of electronic procedures in the region, said the paper, would reduce human intervention and make customs clearance more efficient. In order to streamline transportation and reduce costs for traders, common transit processes should be available. Additionally, operations in major ports, airports and land border crossings should be operating on 24-hour days to further accelerate customs clearance.

Page 3 of 7


IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) ADB – Press Release: ADB's 46th Annual Meeting to Focus on Empowerment •

Ministers and senior government officials, business leaders, fellow international institutions, and civil society representatives are set to gather in Noida, India from 2-5 May for the 46th Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which will focus on empowerment through development. This year’s Governors’ Seminar, Beyond Factory Asia: Fueling Growth in a Changing World, will examine the future role of factory-driven manufacturing in the region, alternative growth sources, and how individual countries can move up the production value chain to avoid becoming mired in a middle income trap. http://www.adb.org/news/adbs-46th-annual-meeting-focus-empowerment (Press Release) http://www.adb.org/annual-meeting/2013/kspe/governors-seminar (Governors’ Seminar: Beyond Factory Asia: Fueling Growth in a Changing World)

IMF – Publication: “Fiscal Monitor April 2013 – Fiscal Adjustment in an Uncertain World” •

The IMF has publicised the latest issue for the Fiscal Monitor. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2013/01/fmindex.htm (Press Release) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2013/01/pdf/fm1301.pdf (Report)

IMF – Publication: “World Economic Outlook: Hopes, Realities and Risks” •

The IMF has publicised another two new analytical chapters of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) namely (1) Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies and (2) Chapter 2: Country and Regional Perspectives on April, 16 2013. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/index.htm (Press Release) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/c1.pdf (Publication: Chapter 1) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/c2.pdf (Publication: Chapter 2) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/text.pdf (Publication: Full Report) http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2013/tr041613.htm (Transcript of a WEO Press Conference)

OECD – Press Release: OECD Economic Survey of Japan launches Tuesday 23 April 2013 in Tokyo •

The OECD’s latest Economic Survey of Japan, to be published on Tuesday 23 April 2013, discusses how the country can best meet the challenges of restoring public finances and boosting growth. The study assesses the new government’s plan to revitalise the economy through bold monetary policy measures, flexible fiscal policy and a new growth strategy. It outlines potential reforms in areas including the agriculture, education and energy sectors as well as those to boost labour force participation and productivity. http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-economic-survey-of-japan-launches-tuesday-23april-2013-in-tokyo.htm

Page 4 of 7


FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 16-Apr 17-Apr close China 6.23 6.19 6.18 6.17 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,714.00 9,717.00 9,711.00 Japan 86.75 98.37 97.54 98.14 Korea 1,064.40 1,129.40 1,115.14 1,118.47 Malaysia 3.06 3.04 3.04 3.03 Philippines 41.01 41.32 41.32 41.24 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.23 1.23 Thailand 30.59 29.05 28.96 28.81 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,855.00 20,925.00 20,910.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change 0.17 0.00 0.06 -0.61 -0.30 0.44 0.20 0.11 0.52 0.07

2013 YTD (%chg) 1.0 -0.2 -0.6 -11.0 -4.9 0.3 -0.9 -1.0 5.3 -0.3

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,206.8 22,089.1 4,937.2 13,485.1 1,924.2 1,698.5 6,891.4 3,294.2 1,527.3 494.3

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 16-Apr 17-Apr 2.010 2.010 0.081 0.081 4.180 4.180 0.093 0.093 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000 1.941 1.894 0.032 0.032 2.750 2.750 2.500 2.500

16-Apr 2,194.8 21,672.0 4,945.3 13,221.4 1,922.2 1,700.5 6,786.3 3,291.6 1,527.3 478.1 bps change 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

17-Apr

% change

2,193.8 21,569.7 4,998.7 13,382.9 1,923.8 1,711.0 6,850.3 3,291.5 1,523.4 484.0

-0.05 -0.47 1.08 1.22 0.08 0.61 0.94 0.00 -0.26 1.24

2013 YTD (%chg) -3.3 -7.5 15.0 28.7 -5.3 2.2 16.9 2.8 8.2 15.7

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 16-Apr 17-Apr bps change 3.880 3.880 0.00 0.377 0.377 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.232 0.231 -0.08 2.760 2.760 0.00 3.210 3.210 0.00 0.363 0.320 -4.30 0.371 0.371 0.00 2.855 2.855 0.00 5.950 5.940 -1.00

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 15-Apr 16-Apr bps change China 68.50 70.17 1.67 Hong Kong SAR 42.69 43.20 0.51 Indonesia 138.04 138.81 0.77 Japan 69.12 68.22 -0.90 Korea 81.37 82.06 0.69 Malaysia 83.33 84.34 1.01 Philippines 95.26 96.30 1.03 Thailand 91.69 92.21 0.52 Vietnam 207.05 207.10 0.04 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 16-Apr 17-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,367.4 1,380.6 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change 0.97

Page 5 of 7


CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2013

31-Jul

31-Aug

30-Sep

31-Oct

30-Nov

31-Dec

3,240.0

3,272.9

3,285.1

3,287.4

3,297.7

3,311.6

296.3

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

106.6

109.0

110.2

110.3

111.3

112.8

1,272.8

1,273.2

1,277.0

1,274.2

1,270.9

314.4

316.9

322.0

323.5

326.1

134.5

134.9

137.5

138.3

139.1

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

n.a

n.a

3,440.0

304.7

304.8

303.8

108.8

105.2

104.8

1,268.1

1,267.3

1,258.8

1,254.4

327.0

328.9

327.4

327.4

139.7

140.2

140.3

139.7

79.8

80.7

82.0

81.7

83.9

83.8

85.3

83.6

84.1

244.1

246.2

252.1

254.2

255.8

259.3

258.8

259.1

258.2

175.3

179.2

183.6

181.5

181.6

181.6

181.6

179.2

177.8

20.0 20.8 21.3 Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

21.4

23.2

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

Reserves over short-term debt

3,311.6 521.2 6.4 China 540.9 304.8 149.4 2.0 Hong Kong SAR 752.6 55.5 1.9 Indonesia 105.2 43.9 1,254.4 70.4 17.8 Japan 2,371.0 156.7 2.1 Korea 327.4 126.7 139.7 56.7 2.5 Malaysia 30.4 20.1 4.2 Philippines 84.1 8.5 259.1 121.5 2.1 Singapore 964.3 68.1 2.6 Thailand 177.8 60.6 21.3 30.9 Vietnam 10.0 Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly.

Page 6 of 7

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -


DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators

Country

SOUTH KOREA SINGAPORE SINGAPORE JAPAN MALAYSIA Expected Release Date 4/15/2013

4/17/2013

4/18/2013

4/19/2013

Producer Price Index (YoY)% Electronic Exports (YoY)% Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY)% Consumer Confidence CPI YoY %

Period

Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar

Last

Previous

-2.4 -17.9 -4.8 44.8 1.6

-1.6 -27.4 -30.6 44.3 1.5

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (15 Apr – 19 Apr 2013)

Country JAPAN CHINA CHINA CHINA JAPAN SINGAPORE PHILIPPINES CHINA CHINA SOUTH KOREA SINGAPORE SINGAPORE JAPAN MALAYSIA HONG KONG JAPAN JAPAN JAPAN THAILAND

Indicators Capacity Utilization (MoM)% Industrial Production (YoY)% Real GDP (QoQ)% Actual FDI (YoY)% Industrial Production YOY% Retail Sales (YoY)% Overseas Remittances (YoY)% Retail Sales (YoY)% Real GDP (YoY)% Producer Price Index (YoY)% Electronic Exports (YoY)% Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY)% Consumer Confidence CPI YoY % Unemployment Rate SA% Merchnds Trade Balance Total (JPY bn) Merchnds Trade Exports YoY % All Industry Activity Index (MoM) % Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Period Feb F Mar 1Q Mar Feb F Feb Feb Mar 1Q Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Feb Apr 12

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 7 of 7


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 18 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS •

Asian shares fall as commodities slide on concern weaker global economic growth will crimp demand for raw materials. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 1.1 percent to 135.89 as of 5:08 p.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Nikkei 255 Stock Average fell 1.2 percent as the yen swung between gains and losses. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 1.2 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.2 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite Index added 0.2 percent. Commodities were in focus once again, as copper and crude-oil prices fell sharply as investors dumped assets across the commodity complex due to broad-based risk aversion and lingering concerns over growth in China. WTI trades near four-month low as output reaches two-decade high.

Dollar weakens before U.S. initial jobless claims; yen rallies. The dollar fell against most of its 16 major counterparts. The dollar lost 0.2 percent to 97.97 yen at 8:49 a.m. London after gaining 1.4 percent in the previous two days. Japan’s currency was at 127.90 per euro from 127.87 yesterday. Sterling was 0.3 percent from the lowest in almost two weeks against the dollar before a report forecast to reveal retail sales slipped last month.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS •

G-20 draft affirms pledge to avoid competitive devaluations. Group of 20 nations will affirm a commitment to avoid weakening their currencies to gain a trade advantage, according to a draft statement prepared for a meeting this week in Washington. The statement maintains a February pledge to “move more rapidly toward more marketdetermined exchange rate systems and exchange-rate flexibility” and to refrain from competitive devaluations. Meetings of finance ministers and central bankers start today. The initial language suggests G-20 members will withhold direct criticism of Japan’s efforts to rally its economy from 15 years of deflation even after the yen’s 19 percent slide against the dollar in the past six months.

Fed says ‘moderate’ growth across U.S. was led by housing. The Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic expansion remained “moderate” amid gains in manufacturing, housing and autos that offset weakness in defense-related industries in some regions. “Most districts noted increases in manufacturing activity since the previous report,” the central bank said today in its Beige Book business survey, which is based on reports from the Fed’s 12 regional banks from late February to early April. “Particular strength was seen in industries tied to residential construction and automobiles.” Most regions


said “residential and commercial real estate improved markedly” as housing prices rose in many areas and demand for home loans was “steady to slightly up,” the Fed said. Consumer spending “grew modestly” even as some regions said sales were curbed by rising gasoline prices, higher payroll taxes and winter weather. “Employment conditions remained unchanged or improved somewhat,” the report said. •

Portugal approves spending cuts to meet bailout target. The Portuguese government approved on Thursday new spending cuts worth 0.5 percent of gross domestic product to put its fiscal plans under an EU/IMF bailout back on track after the rejection by the constitutional court of some austerity measures. Budget Secretary Luis Sarmento said the cuts should allow to meet this year's budget deficit target of 5.5 percent of GDP and get the lenders' approval for the disbursement of the next 2 billion euro bailout tranche.

REGIONAL •

Japanese exports exceed estimates as yen’s slide aids sales. Japan’s exports exceeded estimates in March and the trade deficit narrowed from the previous month after declines in the yen made the nation’s products more competitive in overseas markets. Overseas shipments rose 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo today. Better-than-forecast trade numbers add to positive signs for Japan’s economy as central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda rolls out unprecedented monetary stimulus to trigger a growth rebound. At the same time, declines in shipments to China and the European Union highlighted limits on the likely scale of export gains this year. The U.S. displaced China as Japan’s biggest export market for the year through March.

China’s home prices gain as Guangzhou advances most in two years. China’s property rebound gathered pace in March as new home prices in the southern city of Guangzhou jumped the most in more than two years, underscoring concerns that a bubble may be building. Guangzhou prices rose 11.1 percent from a year earlier while those in Beijing climbed 8.6 percent and Shanghai posted a 6.4 percent increase, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today, all showing the biggest gains since January 2011 when the government changed its methodology for the data. Prices rose in 68 of 70 cities tracked by the government, the most since September 2011.

China Q1 FDI reverses declines, moves up value chain. China's foreign direct investment inflows reversed the longest streak of annual declines in the first quarter, as a mild but steady recovery in the economy helped bolster global investor confidence. The figures also showed that investment was focused more on advanced manufacturing industries and the service sector, in line with Beijing's broader goal of moving up the global value chain and shaking off its tag as the world's factory. China drew $29.9 billion in foreign direct investment in the first three months, up 1.4 percent from a year earlier period. The rise put an end to persistently negative year-to-date growth since early 2012

Page 2 of 7


and was mainly driven by investment from U.S. and European companies, according to ministry data. •

Thailand to move again to shore up rubber prices. Thailand, the world's biggest rubber producer and exporter, is planning additional moves to shore up falling rubber prices, a senior government official said. "The National Rubber Committee will meet soon to formulate a new measure. The measure is likely to be submitted to the cabinet for approval and be implemented by May," the official who is a member of the committee, said. To support prices, Thailand has already decided to cut exports for another two months after a scheme agreed with Indonesia and Malaysia expired at the end of March.

Philippines to adjust foreign-exchange rules to spur outflows. A further easing of foreign exchange rules is set to be announced today by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which is seeking to manage strong capital flows that have led to a sharp appreciation of the peso. The adjustments in rules, which will allow easier access to foreign exchange, are aimed at encouraging fund outflows, Governor Amando Tetangco said on March 28 when he revealed the April timetable for the new rules. The Philippines, which won its first investment-grade credit ranking from Fitch Ratings last month, is seeking to slow a surge in capital inflows that fueled the biggest peso gain in six months and drove local shares to a record high. Foreign portfolio inflows into the $225 billion economy jumped 79 percent from a year earlier to $7.3 billion in the first quarter, after rising to a 10-year high in 2012.

EU set to lift Myanmar sanctions, except on arms. The European Union is expected to lift all sanctions on Myanmar next week, except for an arms embargo, in recognition of the "remarkable process of reform" in the country. The EU agreed a year ago to suspend most of its sanctions against Myanmar for a year in response to a dramatic series of reforms, but it is now expected to go further by agreeing "to lift all sanctions with the exception of the embargo on arms". The step, which was agreed by EU ambassadors on Wednesday, paving the way for ministerial approval on Monday, will allow European companies to invest in Myanmar, which has significant natural resources and borders economic giants China and India. The move could put pressure on the United States, which suspended sanctions in May last year and allowed U.S. companies to invest through a general license. Some American executives have urged Washington to go further and lift sanctions entirely to remove an element of uncertainty over their investments.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) BIS – Press Release: Implementation of PFMIs monitored by BIS’ CPSS and IOSCO •

The BIS’ Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) have started the process of monitoring Page 3 of 7


implementation of the Principles for financial market infrastructures (PFMIs). The PFMIs are international standards for payment, clearing and settlement systems, including central counterparties (CCPs) and trade repositories (TRs). The implementation monitoring will cover the implementation of the principles contained in the PFMIs as well as responsibilities A to E. A first assessment is currently underway examining whether jurisdictions have made regulatory changes that reflect the principles and responsibilities in the PFMI. Results of this assessment are due to be published in the third quarter of 2013. http://www.bis.org/press/p130417.htm (Main Press Release) http://www.bis.org/cpss/cpssinfo2_5.htm (Details: CPSS Implementation Monitoring of Standards) http://www.bis.org/publ/cpss101.htm (Press Release: Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures April 2012) http://www.bis.org/publ/cpss101a.pdf (Publication: Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures – April 2012) IMF – Press Release: IMF Executive Board Reviews Facilities for Low-Income Countries and Eligibility for Using Concessional Financing •

On April 8, the Executive Board of the IMF reviewed its facilities for low-income countries (LICs) and eligibility to use the IMF’s concessional resources under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). Both the framework for determining PRGT eligibility and the list of PRGT-eligible countries were reviewed. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2013/pn1345.htm (Press Release) http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031813.pdf (Policy Paper: Review of Facilities for Low-Income Countries - Proposals for Implementation) http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031813A.pdf (Policy Paper: Eligibility to Use the Fund's Facilities for Concessional Financing)

IMF – Publication: “Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative - Statistical Update” •

The IMF has publicised the above-stated policy paper. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/041113.pdf

IMF – Publication: “IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR)” - April 2013 •

The IMF has publicised another new summary chapter of the IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GSFR) namely (1) Chapter 1: Acute Risks Reduced: Actions Needed to Entrench Financial Stability. http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2013/01/index.htm (Press Release) http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2013/01/pdf/c1.pdf (Publication: Summary Chapter 1) http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2013/01/pdf/text.pdf (Publication: Full Report) http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2013/tr041713.htm (Transcript of the Press Briefing on the Global Financial Stability Report)

Page 4 of 7


FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 17-Apr 18-Apr close China 6.23 6.19 6.17 6.18 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,714.00 9,711.00 9,716.00 Japan 86.75 98.37 98.12 98.18 Korea 1,064.40 1,129.40 1,118.47 1,123.69 Malaysia 3.06 3.04 3.03 3.03 Philippines 41.01 41.32 41.24 41.24 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.24 1.24 Thailand 30.59 29.05 28.84 28.76 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,855.00 20,886.00 20,898.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change -0.14 0.00 -0.05 -0.06 -0.46 -0.24 0.00 0.06 0.28 -0.06

2013 YTD (%chg) 0.8 -0.2 -0.6 -11.0 -5.4 0.0 -0.9 -1.2 5.5 -0.3

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,206.8 22,089.1 4,937.2 13,485.1 1,924.2 1,698.5 6,891.4 3,294.2 1,527.3 494.3

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 17-Apr 18-Apr 2.010 2.220 0.081 0.082 4.180 4.180 0.093 0.093 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000 1.894 2.069 0.064 0.064 2.750 2.750 2.500 2.500

17-Apr 2,193.8 21,569.7 4,998.7 13,382.9 1,923.8 1,711.0 6,850.3 3,291.5 1,521.5 484.0 bps change 21.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

18-Apr

% change

2,197.6 21,512.5 5,012.6 13,220.1 1,900.1 1,706.3 6,857.5 3,292.1 1,525.8 473.2

0.17 -0.26 0.28 -1.22 -1.24 -0.28 0.11 0.02 0.28 -2.23

2013 YTD (%chg) -3.2 -7.7 15.3 27.2 -6.5 1.9 17.0 2.8 8.4 13.1

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 17-Apr 18-Apr bps change 3.880 3.880 0.00 0.377 0.377 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.231 0.230 -0.08 2.760 2.760 0.00 3.210 3.210 0.00 0.320 0.318 -0.20 0.371 0.371 0.00 2.855 2.855 0.00 5.940 6.000 6.00

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 16-Apr 17-Apr bps change China 70.17 67.56 -2.61 Hong Kong SAR 43.20 43.20 0.01 Indonesia 138.81 137.61 -1.19 Japan 68.22 67.65 -0.57 Korea 82.06 77.77 -4.30 Malaysia 84.34 81.91 -2.43 Philippines 96.30 94.41 -1.88 Thailand 92.21 89.78 -2.43 Vietnam 207.10 205.22 -1.87 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 17-Apr 18-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,376.3 1,387.7 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change 0.83

Page 5 of 7


CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2013

31-Jul

31-Aug

30-Sep

31-Oct

30-Nov

31-Dec

3,240.0

3,272.9

3,285.1

3,287.4

3,297.7

3,311.6

296.3

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

106.6

109.0

110.2

110.3

111.3

112.8

1,272.8

1,273.2

1,277.0

1,274.2

1,270.9

314.4

316.9

322.0

323.5

326.1

134.5

134.9

137.5

138.3

139.1

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

n.a

n.a

3,440.0

304.7

304.8

303.8

108.8

105.2

104.8

1,268.1

1,267.3

1,258.8

1,254.4

327.0

328.9

327.4

327.4

139.7

140.2

140.3

139.7

79.8

80.7

82.0

81.7

83.9

83.8

85.3

83.6

84.1

244.1

246.2

252.1

254.2

255.8

259.3

258.8

259.1

258.2

175.3

179.2

183.6

181.5

181.6

181.6

181.6

179.2

177.8

20.0 20.8 21.3 Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

21.4

23.2

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

Reserves over short-term debt

3,311.6 521.2 6.4 China 540.9 304.8 149.4 2.0 Hong Kong SAR 752.6 55.5 1.9 Indonesia 105.2 43.9 1,254.4 70.4 17.8 Japan 2,371.0 156.7 2.1 Korea 327.4 126.7 139.7 56.7 2.5 Malaysia 30.4 20.1 4.2 Philippines 84.1 8.5 259.1 121.5 2.1 Singapore 964.3 68.1 2.6 Thailand 177.8 60.6 21.3 30.9 Vietnam 10.0 Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly.

Country

HONG KONG JAPAN JAPAN

DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators

Unemployment Rate SA% Merchnds Trade Balance Total (JPY bn) Merchnds Trade Exports YoY %

Period

Mar Mar Mar

Last

3.5 -362.4 1.1

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -

Previous

3.4 -777.5 -2.9

Page 6 of 7


Expected Release Date 4/15/2013

4/17/2013

4/18/2013

4/19/2013

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (15 Apr – 19 Apr 2013)

Country JAPAN CHINA CHINA CHINA JAPAN SINGAPORE PHILIPPINES CHINA CHINA SOUTH KOREA SINGAPORE SINGAPORE JAPAN MALAYSIA HONG KONG JAPAN JAPAN JAPAN THAILAND

Indicators Capacity Utilization (MoM)% Industrial Production (YoY)% Real GDP (QoQ)% Actual FDI (YoY)% Industrial Production YOY% Retail Sales (YoY)% Overseas Remittances (YoY)% Retail Sales (YoY)% Real GDP (YoY)% Producer Price Index (YoY)% Electronic Exports (YoY)% Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY)% Consumer Confidence CPI YoY % Unemployment Rate SA% Merchnds Trade Balance Total (JPY bn) Merchnds Trade Exports YoY % All Industry Activity Index (MoM) % Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Period Feb F Mar 1Q Mar Feb F Feb Feb Mar 1Q Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Feb Apr 12

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 7 of 7


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 22 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS •

Most Asian Stocks Advance as Japanese Exporters Rally on Weaker Yen. Asian stocks rose for a second day, led by Japanese exporters as the yen slid to a four-year low against the dollar after the Bank of Japan’s stimulus policies were unopposed at a Group of 20 meeting. Stock indices in Philippine, Japan and Korea advanced by 2.4, 1.9 and 1.0 percent, respectively. On the other hand, Stock markets in China and Indonesia declined by 0.1 and 0.4 percent, respectively. Asian Currencies Broadly Declined, Led by the Ringgit and Peso. Except for the Hong Kong dollar, all the major ASEAN+ 3 currencies recorded a decline against the USD. Both Ringgit and Peso declined by 0.4 percent. Japanese Yen and Korea Won depreciated by 0.22 and 0.25 percent, respectively. Singapore dollar and Thailand Baht also depreciated by around 0.25 percent. WTI Crude Trades Near One-Week High. West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the highest price in a week as investors speculated that declines over the past three weeks were excessive. Hedge funds cut bullish bets on WTI by the most in almost two months. Futures fluctuated in New York after gaining the past two days. WTI fell in the seven days ended April 19 for a third weekly decline, the longest run since November.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS •

G-20 Eyes Stimulus Fallout Even as Japan Bond Buying Praised. Group of 20 finance chiefs pledged to stay alert to any fallout from easy monetary policies even as they backed the Bank of Japan’s plan to buy more than 7 trillion yen ($70 billion) a month of bonds. In a nod to concerns that stimulus in one economy often creates challenges elsewhere and could fuel asset bubbles, the G-20 officials meeting in Washington heightened their commitment to being “mindful of unintended negative side effects stemming from extended periods of monetary easing.” Spain Slump With Record Jobless Pressures Rajoy Pickup Wish. Spain’s struggle to escape from recession will intensify this week as data revealing the extent of its woes culminate in a renewed effort by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to foster a recovery. The Spanish premier pledged on April 17 to unveil measures this Friday to make the euro region’s fourth-largest economy more flexible and competitive. That announcement will end a week of reports ranging from a confirmation that Spain’s budget deficit widened last year, to an estimate of gross domestic product in the first quarter and data showing if unemployment reached another record. Osborne Said to Extend Credit Plan as U.K. Weakness Persists. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne intends to unveil the second phase of a plan to increase loans for small companies and consumers because the U.K. economy remains weak, said


a person with knowledge of the plan. Osborne may extend the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme as soon as this week, said the person, who declined to be identified because the measure hasn’t been officially announced. The International Monetary Fund, whose delegation will visit London next month for an audit of the U.K., has called on him to do more to aid the economy. Riksbank’s Svensson Leaves After Failing to Gain. Riksbank Deputy Governor Lars E.O. Svensson said he will leave the Swedish central bank’s board when his term expires next month after failing to win backing for his calls for deeper interest rate cuts. “I haven’t managed to get support for a monetary policy that I consider would lead to better target fulfilment, with both higher inflation closer to the target of 2 percent and lower unemployment,” Svensson said in a statement. Svensson, who taught at Princeton University alongside Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke early last decade, has advocated for bigger rate cuts than the majority of the bank’s board, arguing his colleagues’ policies are costing jobs. He said last month the Riksbank’s record on inflation targeting was “poor” as price growth lags well behind its 2 percent goal.

REGIONAL •

PBOC’s Zhou Says China Must Sacrifice Growth to Reform. China’s slower expansion in the first quarter is “normal” as the world’s second-largest economy sacrifices growth to make structural reforms, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said. While a “mild” global slowdown is affecting China, the 7.7 percent gain was “overall normal” compared with the government’s 2013 target of 7.5 percent, Zhou told Bloomberg News outside a meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington on April 20. Investors are assessing where the nation’s growth rate may settle as the working-age population declines, costs rise and officials wrestle with the environmental toll from polluting factories. A sustained shift to a lower-growth gear will affect everything from the outlook for the world’s automobile makers to iron-ore demand in Australia as BHP Billiton Ltd. Predicts expansion will moderate toward 6 percent later this decade. Singapore’s SGX Said to Gauge Appetite for LNG Futures Trading. Singapore Exchange Ltd., operator of Southeast Asia’s biggest stock market, is gauging interest in starting liquefied natural gas futures trading, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. Government officials from the nation’s trade and finance ministries are also involved in the discussions with local power utilities and foreign trading companies about LNG futures, two of the people said. They declined to be identified because the information is confidential. Talks are tentative and no date is set for the start of trading, they said. SGX is in contact with clients regarding LNG “risk management solutions”, Michael Syn, the company’s head of derivatives, said in an e-mail April 17. “With the start-up of Singapore’s LNG terminal later this year and a further expansion planned for that facility in 2014, Singapore will equip itself to service a much wider market area.” Yudhoyono’s Finance Minister Pick Rattles Market. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s decision to opt for an acting finance minister to replace Agus Page 2 of 8


Martowardojo threatens to cloud the policy outlook as Indonesia struggles to revamp its fuel-subsidy program, step up infrastructure investment and damp price pressures. Hatta Rajasa will replace Martowardojo, who is set to become the next Bank Indonesia chief, the government said April 19. Rajasa is chairman of the National Mandate Party, a member of Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party coalition, and will also remain coordinating minister for the economy. Indonesia Bonds Rise on Japan Inflows Speculation. The yield on Indonesia’s 10-year government bonds dropped to a five-week low amid speculation the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing will increase fund inflows into emerging markets. The rupiah was little changed. Global investors increased holdings of the nation’s debt by 7.5 trillion rupiah ($772 million) since April 3, the day before Japan’s central bank said it would buy 7.5 trillion yen ($75 billion) of bonds per month. The yen fell to a four-year low today, boosting returns on overseas investments for fund managers in Japan. Indonesia’s benchmark interest rate is 5.75 percent, the highest among Southeast Asia’s five biggest economies and more than Japan’s 0.1 percent. “Investment into Indonesia’s government bonds is quite popular in Japan,” said Tohru Nishihama, an economist covering emerging markets at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc. in Tokyo. “The yields are relatively high in the region and the prospect of the yen’s depreciation is encouraging investment abroad among Japanese investors.”

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) ADB and World Bank – Press Release: International Financial Institutions Agree to Share Data •

Recognizing the power of information to shape better policies, guide development programs, and increase accountability, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon along with leaders of six multilateral financial institutions announced today that they would strengthen inter-agency sharing and collaboration on issues related to data and statistical capacity building. This will provide the global community with better statistical tools to measure progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and post2015 development agenda and improve the lives of people in the developing world. http://www.adb.org/news/international-financial-institutions-agree-share-data (Press Release by ADB) http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/04/19/international-financialinstitutions-agree-to-share-data-to-improve-development-outcomes-and-lay-thegroundwork-for-the-post-2015-development-agenda (Press Release by World Bank) ADB – Publication: “ADB Annual Report 2012” •

The ADB approved $21.57 billion in financing operations including cofinancing last year, according to ADB’s 2012 Annual Report, released ahead of its 46th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors to be held 2–5 May in Delhi, India. Poverty reduction in Asia remains “an unfinished agenda” despite the region’s strong record of economic growth, the report notes. In 2012, operations were concentrated in five core areas: infrastructure, environment, regional cooperation and integration, finance sector development, and education. ADB continued to focus on its three key development Page 3 of 8


agendas of inclusive growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. http://www.adb.org/news/adb-assistance-tops-215-billion-2012 (Press Release) http://www.adb.org/documents/adb-annual-report-2012 (ADB Annual Report 2012) FSB – Press Release: FSB reports to G20 on progress of financial regulatory reforms •

The FSB published on 19 April a letter from the Chairman to the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors describing progress on the financial regulatory reform programme, and a progress report on reforming resolution regimes and resolution planning for G-SIFIs http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/press/pr_130419.pdf (Press Release) http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_130419a.pdf (Chairman’s Letter) http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_130419b.pdf (Progress Report: Implementing the FSB Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes- How far have we come?)

G20 – Press Release: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting was held in Washington D.C. •

The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting was held on the eve of the IMF and World Bank Spring meeting's on April 18-19, 2013 in Washington D.C. (USA). Participants discussed traditional G20 agenda, such as global economy outlook, implementation of the G20 Framework for Strong Sustainable and Balanced Growth Working Group Meeting, as well as further implementation of the International Financial Architecture reform and progress review on some issues of the financial regulation agenda. They also exchanged views on another Russia's priority - Financing for Investment. On a final note, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors approved and signed off the Joint Communique. http://www.g20.org/news/20130419/781301866.html (Press Release) http://en.g20russia.ru/load/781302507 (Joint Communique)

IFC – Press Releases •

The IFC has published the following news:

“IFC, Chinese Bank Launch Program to Reduce Climate Change through the Private Sector” http://www.ifc.org/ifcext/pressroom/IFCPressRoom.nsf/0/1BB2BA79676E851D8525 7B52004B7171 •

“IFC, Bank of Shanghai Agreement Boosts Green Financing among China’s Smaller Businesses” http://www.ifc.org/ifcext/pressroom/IFCPressRoom.nsf/0/02AD7593685AD4338525 7B5500116D09

IMF – Press Releases •

The IMF has publicised the following news: •

“Communiqué of the Twenty-Seventh Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee” http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13129.htm Page 4 of 8


Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/042013.pdf

IMF – Publication: “Revised Guidelines for Foreign Exchange Reserve Management” •

The IMF has publicised the above-stated policy paper. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/020113.pdf

OECD – Publication: “OECD Secretary-General Report to The G20 Finance Minister” •

The OECD has publicised the above-stated report pertaining to new developments in tax information exchange. http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-reports-new-developments-in-tax-informationexchange.htm (Press Release) http://www.oecd.org/tax/2013-OECD-SG-Report-to-G20-Heads-of-Government.pdf (Report)

World Bank – Speech: World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim’s Statement at the Spring Meetings 2013 Closing Press Conference •

The IMF has publicised the speech made by World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim at Spring Meetings 2013 Closing Press Conference at Washington DC, United States on April 20, 2013. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/speech/2013/04/20/world-bank-group-presidentjim-yong-kim-statement-spring-meetings-2013-closing-press-conference

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 19-Apr 22-Apr close China 6.23 6.18 6.18 6.18 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,705.00 9,705.00 9,719.00 Japan 86.75 99.52 99.52 99.74 Korea 1,064.40 1,116.30 1,116.30 1,119.05 Malaysia 3.06 3.04 3.04 3.05 Philippines 41.01 41.11 41.11 41.26 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.24 1.24 Thailand 30.59 28.67 28.67 28.74 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,898.00 20,898.00 20,920.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change -0.06 0.01 -0.14 -0.22 -0.25 -0.41 -0.38 -0.28 -0.24 -0.11

2013 YTD (%chg) 0.8 -0.2 -0.7 -12.4 -5.0 -0.4 -1.0 -1.6 5.5 -0.4

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,244.6 22,013.6 4,998.5 13,316.5 1,906.8 1,706.3 6,957.1 3,294.1 1,545.5 473.2

19-Apr 2,244.6 22,013.6 4,998.5 13,316.5 1,906.8 1,706.3 6,957.1 3,294.1 1,545.5 473.2

22-Apr 2,242.2 22,044.4 4,981.0 13,568.4 1,926.3 1,705.0 7,120.5 3,304.8 1,553.0 468.4

% change -0.11 0.14 -0.35 1.89 1.03 -0.07 2.35 0.33 0.48 -1.01

2013 YTD (%chg) -1.2 -5.4 14.6 30.5 -5.2 1.8 21.5 3.2 10.3 12.0

Page 5 of 8


China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 19-Apr 22-Apr 2.600 2.670 0.082 0.082 4.180 4.180 0.093 0.093 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000 2.582 2.188 0.036 0.036 2.750 2.750 2.500 2.391

bps change 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -39.40 0.00 0.00 -10.90

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 19-Apr 22-Apr bps change 3.881 3.883 0.15 0.377 0.377 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.230 0.230 0.00 2.750 2.750 0.00 3.210 3.210 0.00 0.326 0.328 0.20 0.371 0.371 0.00 2.855 2.854 -0.08 6.000 5.929 -7.10

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 18-Apr 19-Apr bps change China 72.27 72.03 -0.24 Hong Kong SAR 43.72 43.73 0.01 Indonesia 141.53 139.30 -2.22 Japan 68.47 67.83 -0.64 Korea 77.28 74.36 -2.92 Malaysia 83.41 80.97 -2.44 Philippines 95.44 95.50 0.06 Thailand 91.27 89.33 -1.94 Vietnam 204.77 204.82 0.05 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 19-Apr 22-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,403.8 1,423.0 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change 1.36

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines

2013

31-Jul

31-Aug

30-Sep

31-Oct

30-Nov

31-Dec

3,240.0

3,272.9

3,285.1

3,287.4

3,297.7

3,311.6

296.3

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

106.6

109.0

110.2

110.3

111.3

112.8

1,272.8

1,273.2

1,277.0

1,274.2

1,270.9

314.4

316.9

322.0

323.5

326.1

134.5

134.9

137.5

138.3

79.8

80.7

82.0

81.7

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

n.a

n.a

3,440.0

304.7

304.8

303.8

108.8

105.2

104.8

1,268.1

1,267.3

1,258.8

1,254.4

327.0

328.9

327.4

327.4

139.1

139.7

140.2

140.3

139.7

83.9

83.8

85.3

83.6

84.1

Page 6 of 8


Singapore Thailand Vietnam

244.1

246.2

252.1

254.2

255.8

259.3

258.8

259.1

258.2

175.3

179.2

183.6

181.5

181.6

181.6

181.6

179.2

177.8

20.0 20.8 21.3 Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

21.4

23.2

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

Reserves over short-term debt

3,311.6 521.2 572.8 6.4 China 304.8 149.4 752.6 2.0 Hong Kong SAR 55.5 43.9 1.9 Indonesia 105.2 1,254.4 70.4 2,371.0 17.8 Japan 156.7 126.7 2.1 Korea 327.4 139.7 56.7 30.4 2.5 Malaysia 20.1 8.5 4.2 Philippines 84.0 259.1 121.5 964.3 2.1 Singapore 68.1 60.7 2.6 Thailand 177.8 21.3 30.9 10.0 Vietnam Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly. DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators

Economies

HONG KONG Expected Release Date 4/22/2013 4/23/2013

4/24/2013 4/25/2013

4/26/2013

CPI - Composite Index (YoY)%

Period

Mar

Last

Previous

3.6

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (15 Apr – 19 Apr 2013)

Economies HONG KONG CHINA SINGAPORE THAILAND THAILAND VIETNAM VIETNAM HONG KONG HONG KONG SOUTH KOREA PHILIPPINES VIETNAM VIETNAM VIETNAM HONG KONG SOUTH KOREA PHILIPPINES PHILIPPINES THAILAND SOUTH KOREA

Indicators CPI - Composite Index (YoY)% HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI CPI (YoY)% Customs Exports (YoY)% Customs Imports (YoY)% CPI (YoY) % Imports YTD (YoY)% Exports YoY% Imports YoY% GDP (QoQ)% Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn) Exports YTD (YoY)% Retail Sales YTD (YoY)% Industrial Production Index YoY % Trade Balance (HKD bn) GDP (YoY)% Trade Balance (USD mn) Total Imports (YoY)% Foreign Reserves (USD bn) SK Consumer Confidence

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -

Period Mar Apr Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Mar Mar 1Q P Mar Apr Apr Apr Mar 1Q P Feb Feb Apr 19 Apr Page 7 of 8

4.4


JAPAN JAPAN

National CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY % National CPI YoY %

Mar Mar

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 8 of 8


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 23 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 

Asian Stocks Drop as China Manufacturing Growth Misses Estimates. Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading for its first decline in three days, after a preliminary report showed Chinese manufacturing expanded less than economists estimated. China stock index declined by 2.6 percent, the largest in this region, followed by the Philippine market (-1.9 percent), Hong Kong market (-1.1 percent) and Singapore market (-0.8 percent). Asian Currencies Broadly Showed a Continued Decline in the Second Day. Thailand Baht led the decline today by -0.5 percent against the USD. Malaysia Ringgit and Philippine Peso recorded a 0.25 percent decline. Meanwhile, Indonesia Rupiah and Korea Won weakened by around 0.15 percent. On the other hand, Yen advanced by 0.5 percent. WTI Drops From One-Week High as China Manufacturing Growth Slows. West Texas Intermediate fell from the highest closing price in more than a week as a report signalled China’s manufacturing is slowing, raising concern that demand will falter in the world’s second-biggest crude consumer. Futures slipped as much as 0.8 percent in New York after the preliminary reading of 50.5 for a Purchasing Managers’ Index released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS 

Existing U.S. Home Sales Fall on Limited Inventory. Previously owned U.S. home sales unexpectedly dropped in March as a lean supply of properties kept the industry from generating a stronger recovery. Purchases of existing houses, tabulated when a contract closes, fell 0.6 percent to a 4.92 million annual rate, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected sales would increase to a 5 million rate. Euro-Area Manufacturing, Services Contract for 15th Month. Euro-area services and manufacturing output contracted for a 15th month in April as the currency bloc struggled to emerge from a recession. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries held at 46.5, London-based Markit Economics said today. That’s in line with the median of 26 economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Bernanke Warned by Barnier That Bank Unit Rules Risk Retaliation. The European Union intensified its campaign against U.S. Federal Reserve proposals to toughen oversight of bank units belonging to overseas lenders, warning of “potential retaliation”


against the plans because they will drive up costs. Michel Barnier, the EU’s financial services chief, last week sent a three-page critique of the draft measures to Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, saying that they risk leaving EU banks at a competitive disadvantage. The move follows a meeting this month between Barnier and U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew, where the Frenchman pressed for a change of course. Coeure Says Economy Data Haven’t Improved Since Last ECB Meeting. European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure spoke at a press conference in Vienna. “We haven’t seen signs of improvement since our last meeting:” Coeure said. “We will assess all available figures when we meet in Bratislava” he added. ECB to hold bi-annual external meeting in Bratislava on May 2. He also mentioned, “banks should consider issuing more EU5 banknotes via ATMs. It would be convenient both for the public, which tends to pay cash for small-ticket items, and for retailers, which would need less change”. U.K. Budget Deficit Narrows as Osborne Faces Stewardship Test. Britain’s budget deficit narrowed more than economists forecast in March as capital investment fell, providing a boost for Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne as he faces new questions over his economic management. The shortfall excluding temporary support for banks was 15.1 billion pounds ($23 billion) compared with 16.7 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 23 economists was for a deficit of 15.5 billion pounds.

REGIONAL 

China’s Recovery Falters as Manufacturing Growth Cools. China’s manufacturing is expanding at a slower pace this month on weakness in global and domestic demand, fuelling concern that the world’s second-biggest economy is faltering. The preliminary reading of 50.5 for a Purchasing Managers’ Index released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics compared with a final 51.6 for March. The number was also below the median 51.5 estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 11 analysts. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. China’s stocks slumped as the data added to an unexpected slowdown in economic growth, reported last week, that prompted banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to cut full-year forecasts. China Said to Plan Easing of Life Insurance Rules to Boost Sales. China plans to allow life insurers to pay higher returns on some policies, a person with knowledge of the matter said. That may make them more attractive for investors stymied by government limits on bank deposit rates. The China Insurance Regulatory Commission may scrap the 2.5 percent maximum rate on fixed-return policies in a trial starting as early as next month, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the matter isn’t public. The new rules may prompt insurers to increase their reserves for pay-outs by about 20 billion yuan ($3.2 billion), the person said.

Page 2 of 6


BOJ Seen Deploying Price Forecasts as Tool Against Deflation. As the Bank of Japan prepares to boost its inflation forecasts this week, analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. say the estimates may themselves be used as a tool for ending deflation. The BOJ may indicate that its 2 percent inflation target will be reached by spring 2015, the Nikkei newspaper reported April 18. The central bank may upgrade its view on core price gains to at least 1.5 percent for the year ending March 2015, people familiar with officials’ discussions previously told Bloomberg News. Indonesia, Singapore to boost economic ties. Singapore and Indonesia yesterday vowed to deepen economic ties as their leaders kept up a tradition of meeting retreat- style each year, this time at the Shangri-La Hotel. The strong personal ties at the highest levels between Asean's largest member state and its smallest were also celebrated at a ceremony at which the Nanyang Technological University (NTU) conferred on President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono an honorary doctorate. He is the first Indonesian leader to receive such an honour. Expressing satisfaction with the "excellent economic partnership" between their two countries, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Dr Yudhoyono also encouraged their private sectors to collaborate on projects under Indonesia's development masterplan, in a joint statement issued after their Leaders' Retreat. Philippines Says $1B Coming Overseas, Part of 730B Pesos Plan. Government plans to raise about $1b from official development assistance or ODA foreign-currency loans out of 730b pesos gross borrowing plan for 2013, nation to shun global bond market this year, Treasurer Rosalia de Leon tells reporters after auction. Government studying inflation-linked bonds and preferred tenor 10 years. Government may offer dollardenominated bonds onshore this year, preferably 10yr benchmark size, de Leon says. Government gauging cost-effectives of buying outstanding dollar notes as high prices of debt may make liability management expensive and Government to wait for right timing. Singapore March Consumer Prices Gain 3.5% yoy in March. Private road transport contributed to easing in inflation, Department of Statistics says in statement today. In February, consumer price index rose 4.9% yoy. As for core inflation, it was 1.7% in March. Meanwhile, Inflation was -0.5% mom in March. In earlier in April, the central bank lowered inflation forecast for 2013 to 3-4 %.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) IMF – Working Papers 

The IMF has publicised the following working papers:  “The Investment Technology of Foreign and Domestic Institutional Investors in an Emerging Market” http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1390.pdf 

‘Fiscal Sustainability: A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed” http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1389.pdf Page 3 of 6


WTO – Speech: Lamy: WTO pushing for a world growth agenda 

Director-General Pascal Lamy, in his speech to the World Bank Development Committee in Washington on 20 April 2013, said “the WTO has been at the forefront of pushing for a growth agenda, especially in the post-2015 period, and will continue to work towards securing a more central role for trade and economic growth as the process unfolds.” Noting that this was his final Development Committee meeting as WTO DirectorGeneral, he underlined the importance of WTO-World Bank collaboration, especially in Aid for Trade. http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/sppl_e/sppl277_e.htm (Full Speech)

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 22-Apr 23-Apr close China 6.23 6.18 6.18 6.18 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,705.00 9,716.00 9,731.00 Japan 86.75 99.52 99.23 98.74 Korea 1,064.40 1,116.30 1,119.05 1,120.93 Malaysia 3.06 3.04 3.05 3.06 Philippines 41.01 41.11 41.28 41.38 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.24 1.24 Thailand 30.59 28.67 28.69 28.83 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,898.00 20,925.00 20,925.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change 0.05 -0.01 -0.15 0.50 -0.17 -0.26 -0.24 -0.05 -0.49 0.00

2013 YTD (%chg) 0.9 -0.2 -0.8 -11.5 -5.1 -0.7 -1.3 -1.6 5.2 -0.4

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,244.6 22,013.6 4,998.5 13,316.5 1,906.8 1,706.3 6,957.1 3,294.1 1,545.5 473.2

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 22-Apr 23-Apr 2.680 3.030 0.082 0.082 4.180 4.179 0.093 0.093 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000 2.188 2.091 0.032 0.032 2.750 2.750 2.391 2.391

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 19-Apr China 72.03 Hong Kong SAR 43.73

22-Apr 70.62 43.75

22-Apr 2,242.2 22,044.4 4,996.9 13,568.4 1,926.3 1,706.7 7,120.5 3,308.9 1,559.1 468.4

bps change 35.00 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

23-Apr 2,184.5 21,806.6 4,975.3 13,529.7 1,918.6 1,700.4 6,982.4 3,282.1 1,553.5 473.7

% change -2.57 -1.08 -0.43 -0.29 -0.40 -0.37 -1.94 -0.81 -0.36 1.12

2013 YTD (%chg) -3.7 -6.5 14.5 30.2 -5.5 1.5 19.1 2.5 10.4 13.2

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 22-Apr 23-Apr bps change 3.883 3.884 0.16 0.377 0.377 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.230 0.230 0.00 2.760 2.760 0.00 3.210 3.210 0.00 0.328 0.462 13.40 0.371 0.371 0.00 2.854 2.853 -0.08 5.929 5.929 0.00

bps change -1.41 0.02

Page 4 of 6


Indonesia 139.30 138.91 -0.39 Japan 67.83 67.20 -0.62 Korea 74.36 73.62 -0.74 Malaysia 80.97 80.55 -0.42 Philippines 95.50 95.68 0.18 Thailand 89.33 89.40 0.06 Vietnam 204.82 204.47 -0.35 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 22-Apr 23-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,426.5 1,416.7 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change -0.68

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2013

31-Jul

31-Aug

30-Sep

31-Oct

30-Nov

3,240.0

3,272.9

3,285.1

3,287.4

3,297.7

296.3

298.2

301.2

301.7

106.6

109.0

110.2

110.3

1,272.8

1,273.2

1,277.0

314.4

316.9

134.5

134.9

31-Dec

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

3,311.6

n.a

n.a

3,440.0

305.2

317.3

304.7

304.8

303.8

111.3

112.8

108.8

105.2

104.8

1,274.2

1,270.9

1,268.1

1,267.3

1,258.8

1,254.4

322.0

323.5

326.1

327.0

328.9

327.4

137.5

138.3

139.1

139.7

140.2

140.3

327.4 139.7

79.8

80.7

82.0

81.7

83.9

83.8

85.3

83.6

84.1

244.1

246.2

252.1

254.2

255.8

259.3

258.8

259.1

258.2

175.3

179.2

183.6

181.5

181.6

181.6

181.6

179.2

177.8

20.0 20.8 21.3 Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

21.4

23.2

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia

Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

3,311.6 304.8 105.2 1,254.4 327.4 139.7

521.2 149.4 55.5 70.4 156.7 56.7

572.8 752.6 43.9 2,371.0 126.7 30.4

Reserves over short-term debt

6.4 2.0 1.9 17.8 2.1 2.5

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6

Page 5 of 6

Apr

139.9


20.1 8.5 4.2 Philippines 84.0 259.1 121.5 964.3 2.1 Singapore 68.1 60.7 2.6 Thailand 177.8 21.3 30.9 10.0 Vietnam Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly.

Economies CHINA SINGAPORE THAILAND THAILAND

DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI CPI (YoY)% Customs Exports (YoY)% Customs Imports (YoY)%

Period Apr Mar Mar Mar

Last 50.5 3.5 4.55 -11.52

Previous 51.6 4.9 -5.83 5.27

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (15 Apr – 19 Apr 2013) Expected Release Date

Economies

Indicators

Period

4/22/2013

HONG KONG

CPI - Composite Index (YoY)%

Mar

CHINA

HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI

Apr

SINGAPORE

CPI (YoY)%

Mar

THAILAND

Customs Exports (YoY)%

Mar

THAILAND

Customs Imports (YoY)%

Mar

VIETNAM

CPI (YoY) %

Apr

VIETNAM

Imports YTD (YoY)%

Apr

HONG KONG

Exports YoY%

Mar

HONG KONG

Imports YoY%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

GDP (QoQ)%

1Q P

PHILIPPINES

Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn)

Mar

VIETNAM

Exports YTD (YoY)%

Apr

VIETNAM

Retail Sales YTD (YoY)%

Apr

VIETNAM

Industrial Production Index YoY %

Apr

HONG KONG

Trade Balance (HKD bn)

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

GDP (YoY)%

1Q P

PHILIPPINES

Trade Balance (USD mn)

Feb

PHILIPPINES

Total Imports (YoY)%

Feb

THAILAND

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Apr 19

SOUTH KOREA

SK Consumer Confidence

Apr

JAPAN

National CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY %

Mar

4/23/2013

4/24/2013

4/25/2013

4/26/2013

9.9 0.3 2.9 -

JAPAN National CPI YoY % Mar The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 6 of 6


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 24 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS •

Asian Stocks Head for Highest Since August 2011 After Yen Slides. Asian stocks rose the most in two weeks as Japanese exporters advanced after the yen weakened overnight and higher sales of new homes in the U.S. added to recovery signs. Japan, Hong Kong SAR, China and Korea’s stock markets advanced by 2.3, 1.7, 1.5 and 0.9 percent, respectively. Among ASEAN economies, Singapore and Indonesia’s markets also gained 0.7 and 0.5 percent. Most ASEAN Currencies Advanced while the Yen Continued to Decline. Both Malaysia Ringgit and Korea Won recorded a 0.3 percent gain against the USD. Meanwhile, Indonesia Rupiah and the Philippine Peso also rose by around 0.2 percent. On the other hand, the Yen and Thailand Baht depreciated by 0.1 and 0.2 percent, respectively. WTI Crude Climbs to One-Week High After U.S. Stockpiles Decline. West Texas Intermediate crude rose to the highest in more than a week as an industry report showed stockpiles declined in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer. Futures increased as much as 0.8 percent in New York to the highest intraday price since April 15. U.S. crude inventories fell 845,000 barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said in a report yesterday.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS •

Home Sales Strengthen as U.S. Builders Drive Growth. Sales of new U.S. homes advanced in March as near record-low mortgage rates helped the industry complete the strongest quarter since 2008, putting the economy on firmer footing. Purchases of single-family properties climbed 1.5 percent last month to a 417,000 annual pace, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for March sales to rise to 416,000. Fake Report Erasing $136 Billion Shows Markets Need Humans. A false report of explosions at the White House that wiped out $136 billion from the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in about two minutes highlighted the risks of the computerized trading that dominates the $18 trillion market. The S&P 500 was up about 1 percent at about 1,578 at 1:07 p.m. New York time today when a posting on the Associated Press Twitter account said there had been explosions at the White House and President Barack Obama had been injured. The benchmark gauge for American stocks erased almost the entire gain, falling as low as 1,563.03 by 1:10 p.m. The index recovered from the plunge within three minutes as the news service said its Twitter account had been hacked and there were no explosions. Euro Declines as Weak Data Fuel ECB Rate-Cut Bets. The euro fell to a two-week low against the dollar as a report showed weakening services and manufacturing in the


region, adding to speculation the European Central Bank will lower interest rates to spur economic growth. The yen erased gains versus the dollar as risk appetite improved on chances for a rate cut. The euro dropped against most of its major counterparts as a German purchasing-manager index unexpectedly fell after the Bundesbank said yesterday the nation’s recovery may be delayed. Sweden’s krona slid after the nation’s jobless rate unexpectedly increased. BOE Expands Credit-Boosting Program as Small Firms Targeted. The Bank of England will extend by one year its plan to provide cheaper loans to companies and consumers and increase incentives to get funds to smaller firms, enhancing a nine-month-old program to aid the economy. The Funding for Lending Scheme will now last until January 2015, make loans to small companies more attractive and be open to non-bank lenders, the BOE and the Treasury said in London today. While credit conditions have improved since the FLS started, “there remain risks of renewed stresses in bank funding markets” because of the euro-area crisis, they said. RBA to Invest Foreign Currency Reserves in China, Lowe Says. Australia’s central bank plans to invest about 5 percent of its foreign currency reserves in China as it deepens ties with the world’s second-largest economy, Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said. The decision “represents the first time that the RBA will have invested directly in a sovereign bond market of an Asian country other than Japan,” Lowe said in a speech today in Shanghai. “It reflects the broader economic relationship between China and Australia and our increasing financial ties.”

REGIONAL •

China Banks’ Profit Growth Slowed Last Year as Economy Weakened. Profit growth at China’s banks slowed and bad loans climbed in 2012 as the world’s second-largest economy expanded at the weakest pace in 13 years. Combined profit at Chinese lenders, including policy and commercial banks, and their foreign competitors in the country grew 20 percent to 1.5 trillion yuan ($243 billion) last year, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said in its annual report today. That compares with 39 percent growth in 2011. Government controls on interest rates and limits on foreign banks’ operations helped buoy profits at state-owned lenders last year even as economic growth slowed to 7.8 percent. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest by market value, and its closest domestic competitors will publish first-quarter earnings this week. Kuroda Closes Gap on 2% Inflation With Way to Go. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has fueled the highest inflation expectation since at least 2008, while falling short of winning faith in his 2 percent target. Japan’s five-year, zero-coupon inflation swap rate climbed 59 basis points to 1.34 percent this year, the most in figures from Meitan Tradition Co. going back five years. While that compared with last year’s low of minus 0.035 percent, it falls short of the 2 percent inflation goal the Bank of Japan aims to meet within two years. The equivalent contracts in the U.S. were at 2.27 percent. The swaps allow investors to exchange floating payments tied to an inflation rate with fixed ones. Page 2 of 6


Bank of Korea Told by Former Policy Maker to Resist Rate Cut. The Bank of Korea should resist any further political pressure for an interest-rate cut after keeping the benchmark on hold this month, according to a former colleague of Governor Kim Choong Soo. “The current level is still accommodative enough,” Choi Do Soung, 60, who served as a monetary policy committee member in 2008-2012, said in an interview in Seoul this week. Lowering the benchmark could add risks in an economy that “relies too much on debt,” he said, citing household borrowing. Indonesia, Myanmar Agree on 500,000T Rice-Supply Deal. Myanmar will allocate the staple for imports by Indonesia when needed, Indonesia Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan says in a statement posted on State Secretary website today. Myanmar will sell the rice if there’s surplus supply. The deal is part of Memorandum of Understanding between Indonesia and Myanmar. Two sides also signed other agreements include on trade and investment. Thais Flock to Japan as Weak Yen Means Bargains. The Thai baht’s biggest quarterly gain against the yen since 1998 was enough reason for Thais changed their travel destination to Japan. There were 36,000 Thai tourists who headed to Japan in the first two months of the year, 31 percent more than the same period of 2012 and the largest increase among five major Southeast Asian countries, according to data from the Japan National Tourist Organization. The baht, Asia’s best-performing currency in 2013, strengthened 14 percent versus the yen in the three months through March before rising a further 7.1 percent in April, making costs for accommodation, shopping and food cheaper for visitors from Thailand.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) BIS – Working Paper: “Is China or India more financially open?” •

The BIS has publicised the captioned working paper. “Measures of de facto capital account openness for China and India raise the question whether the Chinn-Ito measure of de jure capital account openness is useful and whether the Lane-Milesi-Ferretti measure of de facto openness ranks the two countries correctly. We examine eight dimensions of de facto capital account openness. Four measures based on onshore and offshore prices test the law of one price. Generally, the measures show both economies becoming more financially open over time. In six of the eight dimensions, the Indian economy appears to be more open financially. Nevertheless, policy continues to segment onshore and offshore markets in both and policymakers face challenges in further financial integration.” http://www.bis.org/publ/work410.htm

IMF – Press Release: IMF Holds High-Level Roundtable on Structural Banking Reform •

On April 22, 2013, the IMF held a High-Level Roundtable on Structural Banking Reform with participation of senior officials from finance ministries, central banks, and supervisory authorities from many regions of the world. The ensuing debate covered coordination of alternative proposals from within the EU, the impact on host countries and emerging markets, and the interaction of these policies with the new Basel rules as Page 3 of 6


well as the G20-led international reform agenda. The event was closed with an emphasis on a pending task which needs to be taken up: the design of national structural measures to complement the international reform agenda, balance costs and benefits at a global level. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13139.htm OECD – Publication: “Economic Survey of Japan 2013” •

Japan is poised for an economic expansion, but long-term growth prospects remain contingent on additional efforts to revitalise the economy and reduce unsustainable levels of public debt, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Survey of Japan. The new Survey, presented in Tokyo by OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría, forecasts the Japanese economy will grow by about 1.5% annually in 2013 and 2014. The report hails Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s three-pronged strategy -- bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and a growth strategy -- to end 15 years of deflation and relaunch economic growth. http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/japan-is-poised-for-expansion-but-must-curbgovernment-debt.htm (Press Release) http://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/japan-2013.htm (Report)

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 23-Apr 24-Apr close China 6.23 6.18 6.18 6.18 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,705.00 9,731.00 9,715.00 Japan 86.75 99.52 99.48 99.58 Korea 1,064.40 1,116.30 1,120.93 1,117.70 Malaysia 3.06 3.04 3.06 3.05 Philippines 41.01 41.11 41.38 41.29 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.24 1.24 Thailand 30.59 28.67 28.81 28.88 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,898.00 20,925.00 20,923.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change 0.01 0.01 0.16 -0.10 0.29 0.29 0.22 0.04 -0.24 0.01

2013 YTD (%chg) 0.9 -0.2 -0.6 -12.3 -4.8 -0.4 -1.0 -1.6 5.0 -0.4

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,244.6 22,013.6 4,998.5 13,316.5 1,906.8 1,706.3 6,957.1 3,294.1 1,545.5 473.2

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 23-Apr 24-Apr 3.030 2.500 0.082 0.082 4.179 4.179 0.093 0.095

23-Apr 2,184.5 21,806.6 4,975.3 13,529.7 1,918.6 1,700.4 6,982.4 3,284.4 1,549.4 473.7

bps change -53.00 0.00 0.00 0.25

24-Apr 2,218.3 22,183.1 5,002.2 13,843.5 1,935.3 1,705.5 6,972.7 3,307.5 1,552.3 472.9

% change 1.55 1.73 0.54 2.32 0.87 0.30 -0.14 0.70 0.19 -0.17

2013 YTD (%chg) -2.2 -4.8 15.1 33.2 -4.7 1.8 19.0 3.3 10.3 13.0

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 23-Apr 24-Apr bps change 3.884 3.884 -0.07 0.377 0.377 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.230 0.230 0.00

Page 4 of 6


Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2.750 3.000 2.091 0.026 2.750 2.250

2.750 3.000 2.473 0.026 2.750 2.400

0.00 0.00 38.20 0.00 0.00 15.00

2.770 3.210 0.462 0.371 2.853 5.780

2.770 3.210 0.482 0.371 2.853 5.900

0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 12.00

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 22-Apr 23-Apr bps change China 70.62 71.74 1.12 Hong Kong SAR 43.75 43.98 0.24 Indonesia 138.91 137.98 -0.93 Japan 67.20 67.55 0.34 Korea 73.62 74.48 0.86 Malaysia 80.55 81.12 0.58 Philippines 95.68 95.74 0.06 Thailand 89.40 89.91 0.51 Vietnam 204.47 203.57 -0.90 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 23-Apr 24-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,413.0 1,425.9 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change 0.91

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2013

31-Aug

30-Sep

31-Oct

30-Nov

31-Dec

3,272.9

3,285.1

3,287.4

3,297.7

3,311.6

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

n.a

n.a

3,440.0

304.7

304.8

303.8

109.0

110.2

110.3

111.3

112.8

108.8

105.2

104.8

1,273.2

1,277.0

1,274.2

1,270.9

1,268.1

1,267.3

1,258.8

1,254.4

316.9

322.0

323.5

326.1

327.0

328.9

327.4

134.9

137.5

138.3

139.1

139.7

140.2

140.3

327.4 139.7

80.7

82.0

81.7

83.9

83.8

85.3

83.6

84.1

246.2

252.1

254.2

255.8

259.3

258.8

259.1

258.2

179.2

183.6

181.5

181.6

181.6

181.6

179.2

177.8

20.8 21.3 21.4 Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

23.2

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS Latest Int'l

3 months imports

Short-term

Import cover

Apr

139.9

Reserves over

Page 5 of 6


Reserves

of goods & services

external debt

(Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

short-term debt

3,311.6 521.2 572.8 6.4 China 304.8 149.4 752.6 2.0 Hong Kong SAR 55.5 43.9 1.9 Indonesia 105.2 1,254.4 70.4 2,371.0 17.8 Japan 156.7 126.7 2.1 Korea 327.4 139.7 56.7 30.4 2.5 Malaysia 20.1 8.5 4.2 Philippines 84.0 259.1 121.5 964.3 2.1 Singapore 68.1 60.7 2.6 Thailand 177.8 21.3 30.9 10.0 Vietnam Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly.

Economies VIETNAM

DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators CPI (YoY) %

Period Apr

Last 6.61

Previous 6.64

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (15 Apr – 19 Apr 2013) Expected Release Date

Economies

Indicators

Period

4/22/2013

HONG KONG

CPI - Composite Index (YoY)%

Mar

CHINA

HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI

Apr

SINGAPORE

CPI (YoY)%

Mar

THAILAND

Customs Exports (YoY)%

Mar

THAILAND

Customs Imports (YoY)%

Mar

VIETNAM

CPI (YoY) %

Apr

VIETNAM

Imports YTD (YoY)%

Apr

HONG KONG

Exports YoY%

Mar

HONG KONG

Imports YoY%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

GDP (QoQ)%

1Q P

PHILIPPINES

Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn)

Mar

VIETNAM

Exports YTD (YoY)%

Apr

VIETNAM

Retail Sales YTD (YoY)%

Apr

VIETNAM

Industrial Production Index YoY %

Apr

HONG KONG

Trade Balance (HKD bn)

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

GDP (YoY)%

1Q P

PHILIPPINES

Trade Balance (USD mn)

Feb

PHILIPPINES

Total Imports (YoY)%

Feb

THAILAND

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Apr 19

SOUTH KOREA

SK Consumer Confidence

Apr

JAPAN

National CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY %

Mar

4/23/2013

4/24/2013

4/25/2013

4/26/2013

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -

JAPAN National CPI YoY % Mar The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 6 of 6


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 25 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS •

Asia Stocks Near Two-Year High as Investors Weigh Profit Reports. Asian stocks rose, with energy companies leading the regional benchmark index toward its highest intraday level since May 2011, as investors weighed earnings reports. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.6 percent. The Kospi Index increased 0.8 percent as South Korea’s economy grew the most in two years in the first quarter. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 1 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.9 percent. Most regional Currencies Continued to Advance While Thailand Baht seen Large Drop. The baht recorded its largest drop in more than a year after the Bank of Thailand said its board approved a plan to allow it to purchase corporate bonds overseas. On the other hand, Korea Won, Malaysia Ringgit, Singapore dollar and Japanese Yen led the advances with registered at 0.50, 0.36, 0.30 and 0.23 percent, respectively. WTI Trades Near Two-Week High as U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles Shrink. West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed near its highest closing level in two weeks, after U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell and demand for the fuel in the world’s largest consumer increased. Futures pared an earlier increase of as much as 0.6 percent in New York. The U.S. Energy Department reported yesterday that gasoline inventories shrank by 3.93 million barrels last week, the most in a year, beating the median estimate of a 600,000barrel drop in a Bloomberg survey.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS •

Spain Jobless Rate Breaches 27% as Recession Crimps Economy. Spanish unemployment rose more than economists forecast in the first quarter to the highest in at least 37 years as efforts to tackle the European Union’s biggest budget deficit crimped growth. The number of jobless increased to more than 6 million for the first time, climbing to 27.2 percent of the workforce, compared with 26.02 percent in the previous three months, the National Statistics Institute in Madrid said today. That was more than the 26.5 percent median forecasts of 8 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Italy Led by Letta Brings Berlusconi Back to Governing as Winner. Silvio Berlusconi, the three-time prime minister and two-time convicted lawbreaker, won a path back to power in Italy by outmanoeuvring rivals during an eight-week political stalemate. A year and a half after resigning in near-disgrace, the 76-year-old billionaire became the key figure in talks to form the next Cabinet after Enrico Letta of the Democratic Party was appointed prime minister yesterday. Berlusconi and his 241 lawmakers, the secondbiggest contingent, hold the votes Letta, 46, needs to secure a parliamentary majority.


U.K. Avoids a Triple-Dip Recession as Economy Expands 0.3%. Britain’s economy avoided a triple-dip recession in the first quarter with expansion that exceeded economists’ forecasts and will provide welcome relief to a government under fire for failing to foster a recovery. Gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent in the period, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median forecast of 37 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for 0.1 percent growth. From a year earlier, GDP rose 0.6 percent, the most since the fourth quarter of 2011. Fed Debate Moves From Tapering to Extending QE as Inflation Ebbs. Debate among Federal Reserve policy makers is shifting away from the timing of a reduction in bond buying to the need to extend record stimulus as inflation cools and 11.7 million Americans remain jobless. At their meeting last month, several members of the Federal Open Market Committee advocated slowing purchases and stopping them by year-end. Since then, seven have voiced support for maintaining the current pace, including five who vote on the policy making panel: Governor Daniel Tarullo, New York Fed President William C. Dudley, James Bullard of St. Louis, Chicago’s Charles Evans and Boston’s Eric Rosengren.

REGIONAL •

Japan Selling Foreign Debt as Life Insurers Signal Caution. Japan investors are net sellers of overseas debt a sixth-straight week through April 19, MOF data shows today, longest streak since January 2010. Japan investors have been net buyers of foreign debt only 3 weeks this year. BOJ under Haruhiko Kuroda is planning to double the nation’s monetary base, boosting speculation funds will flow out of Japan into higher yielding assets, further weakening the yen. Japan life insurer investment plans announced this week signal caution in expanding investments overseas. Hong Kong Exchanges to Start OTC Derivative Clearing Next Month. Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd, the world’s second-biggest bourse operator by market value, will begin clearing over-the-counter derivatives in May, Chief Executive Charles Li said. “The system is largely completed, ready to go,” Li said yesterday after the bourse operator’s annual general meeting in Hong Kong. “The initial take up we expect to be reasonably moderate.” Regulators worldwide are requiring more over-the-counter derivatives be cleared through central counterparties after they were blamed for exacerbating the 2008 global financial crisis. Indonesia Fuel-Price Rise May Benefit Rupiah, Siregar Says. Indonesia may raise fuel prices next month as policy makers seek to reduce subsidies, Deputy Finance Minister Mahendra Siregar said, predicting confidence in the rupiah will improve as fiscal management is strengthened. The government is studying plans to increase subsidizedfuel prices across all categories or by vehicle type, Siregar said in an interview in his office in Jakarta yesterday. Indonesia “can’t wait” on reducing subsidies as it’s already hurting economic stability, Vice Finance Minister Anny Ratnawati said in a speech today.

Page 2 of 7


S. Korea Economy Grows at the Fastest Pace in Two Years. South Korea’s economy grew the most in two years in the first quarter as the government front-loaded spending and exporters weathered the slide in the yen that aids rivals in Japan. Gross domestic product gained 0.9 percent from the previous three months after a 0.3 percent increase in the fourth quarter, the Bank of Korea said today. That exceeded the median 0.7 percent estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. President Park Geun Hye unveiled a $15 billion extra budget and property stimulus package this month as Asia’s fourth-largest economy grapples with the yen’s decline, record household debt and a stagnant housing market. Today’s report may encourage Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong Soo to continue to resist political pressure for an interest-rate cut after borrowing costs were left unchanged on April 11. Philippines Cuts Special Deposit Account Rate, Holds Benchmark. The Philippines cut the rate it pays on special deposit accounts for a third time this year, boosting efforts to curb capital inflows and avert asset bubbles. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lowered the rate on SDAs to 2 percent effective immediately, according to a statement in Manila today. The decision was predicted by 12 of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. It kept the rate it pays lenders for overnight deposits at a record-low 3.5 percent, as forecast by all 19 economists surveyed. The Philippines, which won its first investmentgrade ranking from Fitch Ratings last month, is seeking to slow a surge in capital inflows that has boosted property prices and lifted stocks to a record this week. Policy easing in developed nations is adding to pressure on inflation and asset prices in Asia’s emerging economies, the World Bank said this month.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) ADBI – Working Paper: “Lessons from the European Spaghetti Bowl” •

The ADBI has publicised the captioned working paper. “European economic integration fascinates and inspires for the way it brought peace to a continent torn by violent and long-standing rivalries. The lessons from Europe, however, cannot be applied directly as the degree of the European Union's supranationality is unthinkable elsewhere. This paper discusses how Europe overcame the specific problem of overlapping free trade agreements (FTAs) with the Pan-European Cumulation System which instituted common rules of origin, regional cumulation of value, and completed the full matrix of bilateral FTAs. After this, Europe had what can be thought of as a "customs union" for rules of origin.” http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.04.24.wp418.lessons.european.spaghetti.bowl.pdf IMF – Working Paper: “The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output: The Role of Reforms”

The IMF has publicised the captioned working paper. “The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic effect of social and political instability on output. The results of the paper suggest that social conflicts have a significant and negative impact on output in the short-term with the magnitude of the effect being a function of the intensity of political instability. The results also show that the recovery of output over the medium-term Page 3 of 7


depends on the ability of the country to implement, in the aftermath of a social instability episode, reforms aimed at improving the level of governance.” http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1391.pdf World Bank – Publication: “Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) Corporate Government Country Assessment: Thailand” •

The World Bank has publicised the above-stated report which analyses Thailand’ corporate governance framework. The report confirms Thailand as a regional leader in corporate governance with a relatively comprehensive framework and has achieved high levels of compliance in a number of key areas. It also notes that corporate governance reforms implemented in Thailand have enhanced investor trust and protected investors’ rights, especially non-majority shareholders, increased board professionalism and promoted high levels of corporate transparency. Nevertheless, the report highlights that the framework could be further improved with the adoption of the key recommendations proposed by the World Bank. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/04/25/thailand-makessignificant-improvements-in-corporate-governance-practices (Press Release) http://siteresources.worldbank.org/FINANCIALSECTOR/Resources/ROSC_Thailand_web. pdf (Report)

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 24-Apr 25-Apr close China 6.23 6.18 6.18 6.17 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,705.00 9,719.00 9,719.00 Japan 86.75 99.52 99.51 99.28 Korea 1,064.40 1,116.30 1,117.70 1,112.14 Malaysia 3.06 3.04 3.05 3.04 Philippines 41.01 41.11 41.29 41.24 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.24 1.24 Thailand 30.59 28.67 28.95 29.13 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,898.00 20,925.00 20,938.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation. ECO

% change 0.12 0.01 0.00 0.23 0.50 0.36 0.12 0.30 -0.62 -0.06

2013 YTD (%chg) 1.0 -0.2 -0.7 -12.0 -4.4 -0.1 -0.9 -1.4 4.1 -0.5

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,244.6 22,013.6 4,998.5 13,316.5 1,906.8 1,706.3 6,957.1 3,294.1 1,545.5 473.2

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 24-Apr 25-Apr 2.500 4.400 0.082 0.081

24-Apr 2,218.3 22,183.1 5,011.6 13,843.5 1,935.3 1,707.4 6,972.7 3,322.7 1,553.9 472.9

bps change 190.00 -0.07

25-Apr 2,199.3 22,401.2 4,975.7 13,926.1 1,951.6 1,706.5 6,995.5 3,328.4 1,569.6 476.6

% change -0.86 0.98 -0.72 0.60 0.84 -0.05 0.33 0.17 1.01 0.78

2013 YTD (%chg) -3.1 -3.9 14.5 34.0 -3.9 1.9 19.4 4.0 11.5 13.9

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 24-Apr 25-Apr bps change 3.884 3.886 0.20 0.377 0.377 0.00

Page 4 of 7


Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

4.179 0.095 2.750 3.000 2.473 0.034 2.750 2.400

4.178 0.095 2.750 3.000 2.462 0.034 2.750 2.325

-0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.10 0.00 0.00 -7.50

4.900 0.230 2.770 3.210 0.482 0.371 2.853 5.900

4.900 0.230 2.770 3.210 0.691 0.371 2.853 6.125

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.90 0.00 0.00 22.50

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 23-Apr 24-Apr bps change China 71.74 72.38 0.64 Hong Kong SAR 43.98 44.03 0.04 Indonesia 137.98 137.52 -0.46 Japan 67.55 66.36 -1.19 Korea 74.48 73.41 -1.07 Malaysia 81.12 81.15 0.03 Philippines 95.74 94.83 -0.91 Thailand 89.91 89.44 -0.47 Vietnam 203.57 203.57 0.00 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 24-Apr 25-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,432.0 1,444.1 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change 0.85

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012

2013 28-Feb

31-Mar

n.a

n.a

3,440.0

317.3

304.7

304.8

303.8

112.8

108.8

105.2

104.8

1,270.9

1,268.1

1,267.3

1,258.8

1,254.4

323.5

326.1

327.0

328.9

327.4

138.3

139.1

139.7

140.2

140.3

327.4 139.7

82.0

81.7

83.9

83.8

85.3

83.6

84.1

246.2

252.1

254.2

255.8

259.3

258.8

259.1

258.2

179.2

183.6

181.5

181.6

181.6

181.6

179.2

177.8

20.8 21.3 21.4 Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

23.2

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

31-Aug

30-Sep

31-Oct

30-Nov

31-Dec

3,272.9

3,285.1

3,287.4

3,297.7

3,311.6

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

109.0

110.2

110.3

111.3

1,273.2

1,277.0

1,274.2

316.9

322.0

134.9

137.5

80.7

31-Jan

Apr

139.9

Page 5 of 7


EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

Reserves over short-term debt

3,311.6 521.2 572.8 6.4 China 304.8 149.4 752.6 2.0 Hong Kong SAR 55.5 43.9 1.9 Indonesia 105.2 1,254.4 70.4 2,371.0 17.8 Japan 156.7 126.7 2.1 Korea 327.4 139.9 56.7 30.4 2.5 Malaysia 20.1 8.5 4.2 Philippines 84.0 259.1 121.5 964.3 2.1 Singapore 68.1 60.7 2.6 Thailand 177.8 21.3 30.9 10.0 Vietnam Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly. DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators

Economies HONG KONG SOUTH KOREA PHILIPPINES

VIETNAM

Exports YoY% Imports YoY% Trade Balance (HKD bn) GDP (QoQ)% GDP (YoY)% Trade Balance (USD mn) Total Imports (YoY)% Imports YTD (YoY)% Exports YTD (YoY)% Retail Sales YTD (YoY)% Industrial Production Index YoY %

Period Mar Mar Mar 1Q P 1Q P Feb Feb Apr Apr Apr Apr

Last 11.2 11.3 -49.1 0.9 1.5 -967 -5.8 18.0 16.9 11.8 5.8

Previous -16.9 -18.3 -34.0 0.3 1.5 -714 -8.0 17.0 19.7 11.7 5.6

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (15 Apr – 19 Apr 2013)

Expected Release Date

Economies

Indicators

Period

4/22/2013

HONG KONG

CPI - Composite Index (YoY)%

Mar

CHINA

HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI

Apr

SINGAPORE

CPI (YoY)%

Mar

THAILAND

Customs Exports (YoY)%

Mar

THAILAND

Customs Imports (YoY)%

Mar

VIETNAM

CPI (YoY) %

Apr

VIETNAM

Imports YTD (YoY)%

Apr

HONG KONG

Exports YoY%

Mar

HONG KONG

Imports YoY%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

GDP (QoQ)%

1Q P

VIETNAM

Exports YTD (YoY)%

Apr

VIETNAM

Retail Sales YTD (YoY)%

Apr

VIETNAM

Industrial Production Index YoY %

Apr

HONG KONG

Trade Balance (HKD bn)

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

GDP (YoY)%

1Q P

PHILIPPINES

Trade Balance (USD mn)

Feb

PHILIPPINES

Total Imports (YoY)%

Feb

4/23/2013

4/24/2013

4/25/2013

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -

Page 6 of 7


4/26/2013

THAILAND

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Apr 19

SOUTH KOREA

SK Consumer Confidence

Apr

JAPAN

National CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY %

Mar

JAPAN National CPI YoY % Mar The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 7 of 7


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 26 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 

Yen Gains as BOJ Refrains From Additional Stimulus. The yen strengthened by 0.6 percent for a second day against the dollar after the Bank of Japan maintained a pledge to double its monetary base without outlining any additional measures to meet its inflation target. On the contrary, Baht weakens 0.8 percent as Thai Permanent Finance Secretary Areepong says finance ministry may “adjust conditions on the purchase of government bonds”. Other regional currencies advanced less than 0.1 percent. Most Asian Stocks Decline on Mixed Earnings. Most Asian stocks fell as corporate earnings showed mixed results and the Bank of Japan added nothing new to its stimulus pledge. China stock posted the largest decline of 1 percent, Indonesia, Japan and Korea markets declined by around 0.3 percent. On the other hand, Hong Kong and Thailand markets advanced by 0.7 and 0.6 percent, respectively. WTI Crude Retreats to Pare Biggest Weekly Advance Since June. West Texas Intermediate fell for the first time in seven days amid speculation the biggest weekly advance since June was excessive. Futures slid as much as 0.8 percent after failing to settle above a technical-resistance level, paring this week’s advance to 5.8 percent. Prices may rise next week on speculation that the European Central Bank will cut its key interest rate to a record low, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Brent crude’s premium to WTI shrank to its narrowest since January.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS 

Provopoulos Says ECB May Never Need to Use Bond-Buying Program. European Central Bank Governing Council member George Provopoulos said a “normalization” on financial markets suggests the ECB might never need to activate its Outright Monetary Transactions bond-buying plan. “Given that in the last few months we have had a kind of stabilization, normalization, maybe it will never be used,” Provopoulos said in an interview in Athens yesterday. “OMT has helped enormously. It is a good thing that we have decided to go ahead with that, just in case it would be needed.” U.K. Banks Said to Be Rattled by Regulator’s Silence on Capital. Britain’s new banking regulator has rattled lenders by holding off disclosing how much capital each firm will have to raise after ordering the industry to plug a 25 billion-pound ($38 billion) shortfall by the end of the year, three people with knowledge of the discussions said. The Prudential Regulation Authority, the unit of the Bank of England that took over supervision of the industry from the Financial Services Authority this month, isn’t expected to detail the steps all banks need to take to bolster their balance sheets until mid-May at the earliest, said two of the people who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. Banks had expected to be told in March, one of the people said.


Italy 6-Month Yield Falls to Record as Letta Works on Government. Italian six-month yields declined to a record low at an auction of 8 billion euros ($10.4 billion) of bills as Enrico Letta, deputy secretary of Italy’s biggest political party, worked to form a government. The Rome-based Treasury sold 8 billion euros of bills maturing in October today at 0.503 percent, down from 0.831 percent at a March 26 auction. Investors bid for 1.4 times the amount offered, down from 1.64 last month. Letta met with political parties yesterday as he tried to form a government backed by a Parliamentary majority able to pass reforms and respond to the country’s longest recession in over 20 years. Letta’s Democratic Party lacks enough members of Parliament to govern alone. Economic Growth in U.S. Probably Picked Up in First Quarter. The world’s largest economy probably accelerated in the first quarter as consumer spending grew by the most in two years and U.S. businesses rebuilt inventories, economists said before a report today. Gross domestic product rose at a 3 percent annualized rate after expanding at a 0.4 percent pace in the final three months of 2012, according to the median forecast of 86 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Swedish Confidence Jumps as Consumers Stoke Economic. Swedish consumer confidence improved for a fourth month in April amid signs the largest Nordic economy is reviving after a slump in exports. The consumer confidence index rose to 5.2 from 2.8 the prior month, the Stockholm-based National Institute of Economic Research said today. Economists predicted confidence would improve to a 3.9, according to the median of 10 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. A manufacturing confidence index improved to minus 8 from minus 10. It was estimated to improve to minus 9.

REGIONAL 

China Top Leaders Warn on Financial Risks as Rebound Falters. China’s top leaders said the country must guard against financial risks and boost consumption amid signs that the recovery in the world’s second-biggest economy is faltering. “China needs to cement its domestic economic growth momentum and guard against potential risks in financial sectors,” the Politburo Standing Committee said in a statement late yesterday published by the official Xinhua News Agency. Macro-economic policies should be stabilized and micro controls in some sectors should be loosened, it said after what Xinhua said was a “special session” on the economy. Bank of Japan Sees Inflation Nearing Target in 2015. The Bank of Japan maintained its unprecedented plan to boost money supply at a policy meeting today, and predicted inflation will almost match its target in two years even after a report highlighted deflation’s grip. Consumer prices, excluding the impact of a sales-tax increase and volatile fresh food costs, will rise 1.9 percent in the fiscal year starting in April 2015, according to the median estimate of BOJ board members published in Tokyo today. A separate release showed that the gauge tumbled by 0.5 percent in March, the most in two years.

Page 2 of 7


Philippines Ready to Act on Property Loan Surge. The Philippine central bank is reviewing property loans data to determine whether cooling measures are needed to avert a bubble, Deputy Governor Nestor Espenilla said in an interview. “Our source of concern is the rapid growth of credit,” Espenilla said in his office on April 24. “The central bank is very mindful of seeing the foundation of an asset bubble that can burst and create dislocations in the economy.” Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, which yesterday cut the rate on its special deposit accounts for a third time this year, is monitoring the property market after bank loans and investments surged to a record, based on the most recent central bank data. Rising prices have spurred developers including Ayala Land Inc. to build more homes. Singapore March Industrial Production Falls 4.1% yoy. Manufacturers produced fewer electronics, while output at transport engineering companies dropped, Economic Development Board says in statement. Output fell for a second straight month. Industrial production rose 6.2% mom in March (median estimation is +7.1%). Electronics output declined -7.2% yoy and transport engineering fell -13.5% yoy. On the other hand, biomedical rose +16.2% yoy and pharmaceuticals advanced +15.8% yoy.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) ADB – Press Release: Takehiko Nakao Elected New ADB President 

Takehiko Nakao has been unanimously elected President of the ADB by its Board of Governors. Mr. Nakao, 57, Japan’s former Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, will assume office as ADB’s ninth President on 28 April. He succeeds Haruhiko Kuroda, who resigned in March. Mr. Nakao will finish the unexpired term of his predecessor, which ends 23 November 2016. http://www.adb.org/news/takehiko-nakao-elected-new-adb-president

ADBI – Working Paper: The 2030 Architecture of Association of Southeast Asian Nations Free Trade Agreements 

The ADBI has publicised the captioned working paper. “This paper investigates and analyzes the present status, potential, and prospects of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) free trade agreements (FTAs). The move towards the ASEAN Economic Community by 2015 and the attempts to broaden FTAs in East Asia present major challenges to ASEAN. Ultimately, it is desirable for ASEAN to draw a clear picture of how the architecture of ASEAN FTAs in 2030 can be given shape.” http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.04.25.wp419.architecture.asean.free.trade.agreements .pdf

IMF – Press Release: IMF Says Decisive Action in Europe Can Strengthen Growth and Avoid Economic Stagnation 

IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton called on European policy makers to take decisive and sustained actions to strengthen the continent’s prospects for growth and avoid the risk of stagnation. In a speech in London, he praised “the important steps taken by the euro area” to address the crisis and urged further reforms “if Europe is to place the crisis in the rearview mirror and finally return to growth and job creation.” Page 3 of 7


Despite the daunting challenges, Mr. Lipton said he remained optimistic as “Europe has risen to the challenge on difficult issues over and over again.” On a concluding note, he indicated that the IMF remains confident that Europe will continue to meet their commitments. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13142.htm (Press Release) http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2013/042513.htm (Bellwether Europe 2013 Speech) UNCTAD – Press Release: UNCTAD participates in high-level meeting on debt sustainability 

UNCTAD’s Secretary-General and the Head of the Organization’s Debt and Development Finance Branch have spoken on sovereign debt issues at a special Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) event. The Special Meeting on External Debt Sustainability and Development focused on Lessons learned from debt crises and ongoing work on sovereign debt restructuring and debt resolution mechanisms, and was held at United Nations Headquarters in New York. UNCTAD Secretary-General Supachai Panitchpakdi said, in opening remarks: "Balancing the risks and opportunities of debt is always a challenge - for policymakers, investors, and ordinary citizens." He added: "As the financial sector has become globally integrated, debt crises have increasingly assumed an international dimension, too. Given the potential scale of the problem, the international community must aim at new, bold solutions to systemic debt problems."" http://unctad.org/en/pages/newsdetails.aspx?OriginalVersionID=467&Sitemap_x0020_ Taxonomy=UNCTAD%20Home;#6;#Investment and Enterprise (Press Release) http://www.un.org/esa/ffd/ecosoc/debt/2013/index.htm (Additional Information pertaining to the Meeting)

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 25-Apr 26-Apr close China 6.23 6.18 6.17 6.17 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,705.00 9,718.00 9,722.00 Japan 86.75 99.52 99.26 98.65 Korea 1,064.40 1,116.30 1,112.14 1,112.01 Malaysia 3.06 3.04 3.04 3.03 Philippines 41.01 41.11 41.24 41.27 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.24 1.24 Thailand 30.59 28.67 29.18 29.40 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,898.00 20,915.00 20,930.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change 0.09 0.01 -0.04 0.62 0.01 0.09 -0.06 0.07 -0.75 -0.07

2013 YTD (%chg) 1.1 -0.2 -0.7 -11.5 -4.4 0.0 -1.0 -1.4 3.2 -0.4

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,244.6 22,013.6 4,998.5 13,316.5 1,906.8 1,706.3 6,957.1 3,294.1 1,545.5 473.2

25-Apr 2,199.3 22,401.2 4,994.5 13,926.1 1,951.6 1,706.3 6,995.5 3,337.7 1,574.3 476.6

26-Apr 2,177.9 22,547.7 4,978.5 13,884.1 1,944.6 1,711.3 7,025.4 3,349.9 1,582.9 474.5

% change -0.97 0.65 -0.32 -0.30 -0.36 0.29 0.43 0.36 0.55 -0.44

2013 YTD (%chg) -4.0 -3.3 14.5 33.6 -4.3 2.2 19.9 4.6 12.5 13.4

Page 4 of 7


China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 25-Apr 26-Apr 4.400 3.004 0.081 0.079 4.178 4.175 0.095 0.093 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000 2.462 2.919 0.037 0.037 2.750 2.750 2.325 2.388

bps change -139.60 -0.21 -0.29 -0.25 0.00 0.00 45.70 0.00 0.00 6.30

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 25-Apr 26-Apr bps change 3.886 3.884 -0.14 0.377 0.377 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.230 0.230 0.00 2.770 2.770 0.00 3.210 3.210 0.00 0.691 1.195 50.40 0.371 0.371 0.00 2.853 2.853 0.00 6.125 5.688 -43.70

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 24-Apr 25-Apr bps change China 72.38 72.39 0.01 Hong Kong SAR 44.03 44.03 0.00 Indonesia 137.52 137.55 0.03 Japan 66.36 65.87 -0.49 Korea 73.41 72.93 -0.48 Malaysia 81.15 81.17 0.02 Philippines 94.83 93.92 -0.91 Thailand 89.44 89.47 0.02 Vietnam 203.57 203.64 0.07 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 25-Apr 26-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,467.9 1,461.5 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change -0.44

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines

2013

31-Aug

30-Sep

31-Oct

30-Nov

31-Dec

3,272.9

3,285.1

3,287.4

3,297.7

3,311.6

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

109.0

110.2

110.3

111.3

1,273.2

1,277.0

1,274.2

316.9

322.0

323.5

134.9

137.5

80.7

82.0

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

n.a

n.a

3,440.0

317.3

304.7

304.8

303.8

112.8

108.8

105.2

104.8

1,270.9

1,268.1

1,267.3

1,258.8

1,254.4

326.1

327.0

328.9

327.4

138.3

139.1

139.7

140.2

140.3

327.4 139.7

81.7

83.9

83.8

85.3

83.6

84.1

Apr

139.9

Page 5 of 7


Singapore Thailand Vietnam

246.2

252.1

254.2

255.8

259.3

258.8

259.1

258.2

179.2

183.6

181.5

181.6

181.6

181.6

179.2

177.8

20.8 21.3 21.4 Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

23.2

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

176.8

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

Reserves over short-term debt

3,311.6 521.2 572.8 6.4 China 304.8 149.4 752.6 2.0 Hong Kong SAR 55.5 43.9 1.9 Indonesia 105.2 1,254.4 70.4 2,371.0 17.8 Japan 156.7 126.7 2.1 Korea 327.4 139.7 56.7 30.4 2.5 Malaysia 20.1 8.5 4.2 Philippines 84.0 259.1 121.5 964.3 2.1 Singapore 68.1 60.7 2.6 Thailand 176.8 21.3 30.9 10.0 Vietnam Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly.

Economies JAPAN JAPAN SOUTH KOREA THAILAND

DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators National CPI YoY % National CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY % SK Consumer Confidence Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Period Mar Mar Apr Apr 19

Last -0.9 -0.5 102 176.8

Previous -0.7 -0.3 104 177.6

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (15 Apr – 19 Apr 2013) Expected Release Date

Economies

Indicators

Period

4/22/2013

HONG KONG

CPI - Composite Index (YoY)%

Mar

CHINA

HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI

Apr

SINGAPORE

CPI (YoY)%

Mar

THAILAND

Customs Exports (YoY)%

Mar

THAILAND

Customs Imports (YoY)%

Mar

VIETNAM

CPI (YoY) %

Apr

VIETNAM

Imports YTD (YoY)%

Apr

HONG KONG

Exports YoY%

Mar

HONG KONG

Imports YoY%

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

GDP (QoQ)%

1Q P

VIETNAM

Exports YTD (YoY)%

Apr

VIETNAM

Retail Sales YTD (YoY)%

Apr

VIETNAM

Industrial Production Index YoY %

Apr

HONG KONG

Trade Balance (HKD bn)

Mar

SOUTH KOREA

GDP (YoY)%

1Q P

PHILIPPINES

Trade Balance (USD mn)

Feb

PHILIPPINES

Total Imports (YoY)%

Feb

THAILAND

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Apr 19

4/23/2013

4/24/2013

4/25/2013

4/26/2013

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -

Page 6 of 7


SOUTH KOREA

SK Consumer Confidence

Apr

JAPAN

National CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY %

Mar

JAPAN National CPI YoY % Mar The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 7 of 7


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 29 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 

Asian stocks rose amid optimism central banks will maintain loose monetary policies to boost economic growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index advanced 0.5 percent to 478.2 as of 5:25 p.m. in Hong Kong, poised for the highest close since March 12. Markets in China and Japan are closed today for a holiday. The U.S. Federal Reserve starts a two-day policy meeting tomorrow after a government report last week showed the world’s largest economy expanded less than economists’ forecast. The dollar fell for a second day against the euro before a report that economists said will show U.S. personal spending stagnated. The dollar dropped 0.5 percent to $1.3096 per euro at 8:47 a.m. in London after declining 0.2 percent on April 26. The U.S. currency fell 0.1 percent to 97.92 yen. Meanwhile, the euro gained 0.4 percent to 128.21 yen. The euro strengthened versus 12 of its 16 major counterparts after Italy’s Prime Minister Enrico Letta was sworn in yesterday, ending two months of political stalemate. Brent crude fell for a second day as investors speculated that slower growth in China will curb fuel demand in the world’s biggest energy consumer. Brent for June settlement declined as much as 59 cents to $102.57 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, and was at $102.99 at 9:11 a.m. local time. The front-month contract was at a premium of $9.86 to West Texas Intermediate futures, from $10.16 on April 26. WTI for June delivery was at $93.13 a barrel, up 13 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at. The volume of all contracts traded was 12 percent below the 100-day average.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS 

Europe may accelerate a shift away from its austerity-first agenda this week as the new Italian government changes course and a German-Spanish investment pact underscores a renewed focus on combating record unemployment. The new Italian government’s pledges to dismantle parts of the budget-cutting project undertaken by ousted premier Mario Monti open a new front in the debate over the German-led policy of austerity to overcome the bloc’s debt crisis. Meanwhile, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will travel to Spain today to unveil a plan aimed at spurring investment in Spanish companies. As the 17-member euro area remains mired in recession, European leaders are joining global critics in urging the bloc to devote more resources to boosting economic growth. Greece adopts bill to cut 15,000 civil servant jobs. The Greek parliament voted late on Sunday to adopt a law that provides for the dismissal of 15,000 civil servants as part of austerity measures imposed by the country’s international creditors. The new law will overturn what had been a guarantee for workers in Greece’s notoriously bloated civil


service of a job for life. The bill provides for the dismissal of 15,000 civil servants by the end of next year, including 4,000 this year, to meet conditions set by Athens’ creditors for billions in bailout loans. The U.S. economy grew less than forecast in the first quarter as a drop in defense outlays undercut the biggest increase in consumer spending in two years. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.5 percent annualized rate following a 0.4 percent fourthquarter advance, according to data from the Commerce Department issued last Friday in Washington. Meanwhile, the median estimate of 86 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 3 percent gain. Another report showed consumer confidence fell in April, signaling that households, which sustained spending last quarter by dipping into savings, may not be able keep shopping at the same pace as tax increases start to pinch. Acrossthe board cutbacks in federal government spending that took effect in March will also take a toll on growth.

REGIONAL 

Arrivals at the Cambodia’s two main international airports rose more than 20 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2013. Officials said the rise partly reflects the country’s political stability. According to the data published by Ministry of Tourism , 750,355 passengers arrived at the two airports over the first quarter, up from 608,281 arrivals in the same period last year. Ministry of Tourism said that much of the increase comes from regional tourists, as well as those from South Korea, China and Japan. Growth in Chinese industrial companies’ profits slowed in March. Net income increased 5.3 percent from a year earlier to 464.9 billion yuan ($75 billion), down from a 17.2 percent pace in the first two months, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its website on April 27. Profit in the first quarter rose 12.1 percent to 1.17 trillion yuan, it said. According to the statistics bureau statement, industrial companies’ revenue rose 11.9 percent in the first three months to 22.2 trillion yuan, down from 13.1 percent in the first two months. Indonesia ranks third on Southeast Asia remittance list. Indonesia received US$7.2 billion from around 6.5 million migrant workers overseas in 2012, the World Bank said in a recent report. The figure was equal to about 1 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product, making Indonesia the third-largest recipient of remittances in Southeast Asia, the report said. According to the recently released World Bank Migration and Development Brief, the Philippines was the top receiver of remittances in Southeast Asia at $24.45 billion, while Vietnam was ranked second, receiving $10 billion in remittances according to the report,. South Korean workers returned home from Gaesong industrial complex in North Korea. According to officials, 11 workers came home from the Gaesong industrial complex Saturday afternoon with 116 more scheduled to follow later in the day. As of Friday, there were 175 South Koreans at the factory zone. After 127 return Saturday, the remaining employees could be home by Monday. Seoul ordered Friday for all remaining workers to return home from Gaesong, after Pyongyang spurned a proposal for talks to resolve disputes over the factory park. Page 2 of 7


IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) ADB – Press Release: New ADB President Takehiko Nakao Assumes Office 

Takehiko Nakao assumes office as the ninth President of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on 28 April, 2013. “I am honored to take on the leadership of ADB at a challenging and exciting time. I look forward to working with shareholders and all of our development partners to continue our critical mission of fighting poverty and sustaining growth in the Asia-Pacific region,” Mr. Nakao said. Mr. Nakao succeeds Haruhiko Kuroda, who stepped down in March. http://www.adb.org/news/new-adb-president-takehiko-nakao-assumes-office

BIS – Working Papers The BIS has publicised the following working papers: 

“Financial sector ups and downs and the real sector in the open economy: Up by the stairs, down by the parachute” http://www.bis.org/publ/work411.htm

“Structural bank regulation initiatives: approaches and implications” http://www.bis.org/publ/work412.htm

G20 – Publication: “Global Prospects and Policy Challenges” 

During the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting which was held on the eve of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings on April 18-19, 2013 in Washington, D.C. (USA) IMF presented the surveillance note on "Global prospects and policy challenges". In the report the IMF disclose current prospects of the global economy and also remaining challenges, which should be counteracted by the G20 countries. http://www.g20.org/news/20130426/781319955.html (Press Release) http://www.g20.org/load/781319538 (Report)

IMF – Press Release: IMF Concludes 2013 Article IV Consultation Mission to Vietnam 

An IMF mission led by Mr. Alfred Schipke visited Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City during April 8–25 to conduct the 2013 Article IV Consultation discussion with the Vietnamese authorities. The mission met with senior officials from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Planning and Investment, private sector representatives, and development partners. The findings of the mission, as outlined, will be reflected in the 2013 Article IV staff report. This report, together with the joint IMFWorld Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) report, is currently scheduled to be discussed by the IMF Executive Board in late June. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13143.htm

IMF – Publication: Guidance Note for the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows 

The IMF has publicised the above-stated guidance note. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/042513.pdf

IMF – Publications 

The IMF has publicised the following reports: Page 3 of 7


“Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe – Regional Economic Issues” http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13141.htm (Press Release) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/eur/eng/ereo0413.htm (Table of Contents) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/eur/eng/pdf/ereo0413.pdf (Report)

“Regional Economic Outlook (REO): Asia and Pacific – Shifting Risks, New Foundations for Growth” http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13145.htm (Press Release) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/APD/eng/areo0413.pdf (Report)

World Bank – Press Releases: 

The World Bank has publicised the following news: 

“China: GEF grant to support scaling-up energy efficiency and renewable energy in cities” http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/04/26/china-gef-grant-tosupport-scaling-up-energy-efficiency-and-renewable-energy-in-cities

“Better urban infrastructure to be provided to 400,000 Da Nang residents with new World Bank credit” http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/04/26/better-urbaninfrastructure-to-be-provided-to-400000-da-nang-residents-with-new-world-bankcredit

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 26-Apr 29-Apr close China 6.23 6.17 6.17 6.17 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,722.00 9,722.00 9,722.00 Japan 86.75 98.05 98.05 97.81 Korea 1,064.40 1,112.01 1,112.01 1,107.30 Malaysia 3.06 3.03 3.03 3.03 Philippines 41.01 41.27 41.27 41.14 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.24 1.23 Thailand 30.59 29.24 29.24 29.33 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,930.00 20,930.00 20,935.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.25 0.43 0.08 0.30 0.15 -0.31 -0.02

2013 YTD (%chg) 1.1 -0.2 -0.7 -10.7 -3.9 0.1 -0.7 -1.1 3.4 -0.5

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9

Previous wk's close 2,177.9 22,547.7 4,978.5 13,884.1 1,944.6 1,711.3 7,025.4 3,348.9 1,582.9

26-Apr 2,177.9 22,547.7 4,978.5 13,884.1 1,944.6 1,711.3 7,025.4 3,348.9 1,582.9

29-Apr 2,177.9 22,580.8 4,999.8 13,884.1 1,940.7 1,708.0 7,028.4 3,358.0 1,579.6

% change 0.00 0.15 0.43 0.00 -0.20 -0.19 0.04 0.27 -0.21

2013 YTD (%chg) -4.0 -3.1 15.0 33.6 -4.5 2.0 19.9 4.9 12.2

Page 4 of 7


Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

413.7

474.5

474.5

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 26-Apr 29-Apr 3.004 2.810 0.079 0.079 4.175 4.176 0.093 0.095 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000 2.919 2.592 0.048 0.048 2.750 2.750 2.388 2.388

bps change -19.40 0.00 0.07 0.25 0.00 0.00 -32.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

474.5

0.00

13.4

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 26-Apr 29-Apr bps change 3.884 3.882 -0.22 0.377 0.377 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.230 0.230 0.00 2.770 2.770 0.00 3.210 3.210 0.00 1.195 1.166 -2.90 0.371 0.371 0.00 2.853 2.853 0.00 5.688 5.688 0.00

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 25-Apr 26-Apr bps change China 72.39 71.92 -0.47 Hong Kong SAR 44.03 44.02 0.00 Indonesia 137.55 136.15 -1.41 Japan 65.87 65.40 -0.47 Korea 72.93 72.46 -0.47 Malaysia 81.17 81.19 0.02 Philippines 93.92 92.03 -1.88 Thailand 89.47 89.49 0.02 Vietnam 203.64 203.71 0.07 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 26-Apr 29-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,461.9 1,472.2 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change 0.71

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

Page 5 of 7


INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2013

31-Aug

30-Sep

31-Oct

30-Nov

31-Dec

3,272.9

3,285.1

3,287.4

3,297.7

3,311.6

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

n.a

n.a

3,440.0

304.7

304.8

303.8

109.0

110.2

110.3

111.3

112.8

108.8

105.2

104.8

1,273.2

1,277.0

1,274.2

1,270.9

1,268.1

1,267.3

1,258.8

1,254.4

316.9

322.0

323.5

326.1

327.0

328.9

327.4

134.9

137.5

138.3

139.1

139.7

140.2

140.3

327.4 139.7

80.7

82.0

81.7

83.9

83.8

85.3

83.6

84.1

246.2

252.1

254.2

255.8

259.3

258.8

259.1

258.2

179.2

183.6

181.5

181.6

181.6

181.6

179.2

177.8

20.8 21.3 21.4 Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

23.2

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Apr

139.9

176.8

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

Reserves over short-term debt

3,311.6 521.2 572.8 6.4 China 304.8 149.4 752.6 2.0 Hong Kong SAR 55.5 43.9 1.9 Indonesia 105.2 1,254.4 70.4 2,371.0 17.8 Japan 156.7 126.7 2.1 Korea 327.4 139.7 56.7 30.4 2.5 Malaysia 20.1 8.5 4.2 Philippines 84.0 259.1 121.5 964.3 2.1 Singapore 68.1 60.7 2.6 Thailand 176.8 21.3 30.9 10.0 Vietnam Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly. DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators

Economies

SOUTH KOREA

Current Account in (USD mn)

Period

Mar

Last

Previous

4978.50

2712.9

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (15 Apr – 19 Apr 2013) Expected Release Date

4/29/2013 4/30/2013

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -

Economies

Indicators

Period

SOUTH KOREA JAPAN PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE JAPAN HONG KONG JAPAN SOUTH KOREA THAILAND THAILAND

Current Account in (USD mn) Job-To-Applicant Ratio Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn) Unemployment Rate (sa)% Industrial Production YOY% Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def (HKD bn) Jobless Rate % Industrial Production (YoY)% Business Sentiment Index Total Exports YOY%

Mar Mar Mar 1Q P Mar P Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Page 6 of 7


5/1/2013

5/2/2013

5/3/2013

THAILAND SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA THAILAND THAILAND SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA CHINA JAPAN SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA INDONESIA INDONESIA INDONESIA INDONESIA INDONESIA THAILAND THAILAND INDONESIA CHINA INDONESIA INDONESIA HONG KONG HONG KONG THAILAND INDONESIA HONG KONG INDONESIA

Total Imports YOY% Business Survey- Manufacturing Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing Industrial Production (MoM)% Current Account Balance (USD mn) Total Trade Balance (USD mn) HSBC Manufacturing PMI Consumer Price Index (YoY)% PMI Manufacturing Official Reserve Assets (USD bn) Consumer Price Index (MoM)% Foreign Exchange Reserve (USD bn) Ext Trade - Imports (YoY)% Core Consumer Price Index(YoY)% Total Trade Balance (USD mn) Inflation NSA (MoM)% Exports (YoY)% Core Inflation (YoY)% Total Imports (YoY)% Core CPI (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Inflation (YoY)% HSBC Manufacturing PMI Consumer Confidence Index Money Supply - M2 (YoY)% Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)% Retail Sales - Value (YoY)% Foreign Reserves (USD bn) Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln) Purchasing Managers Index Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Mar May May Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Mar Apr Mar Apr Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Mar Mar Mar Apr 26 Apr Apr Apr

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 7 of 7


MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 30 April 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 

Asian stocks headed for highest closing level since 2008. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.9 percent to 141.71 at 3:42 p.m. in Tokyo, with two shares rising for each that fell. The measure has advanced 4.6 percent this month, extending gains for a sixth month, the longest winning streak since September 2009. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 8.6 percent this year through yesterday amid optimism Japan will deploy more measures to beat deflation and that policy makers in the U.S. and China remain on standby to support growth. The Asian benchmark traded at 14.1 times estimated earnings yesterday, compared with 14.5 times for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 13 times for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.

The euro dropped from a one-week high against the dollar. This is amid speculation the European Central Bank will lower its key interest rate when policy makers meet in two days’ time. The common currency fell versus most of its 16 major peers before data that economists said will show euro-area inflation slowed this month. The euro declined 0.2 percent to $1.3075 as of 8:43 a.m. London time after rising to $1.3121, the strongest since April 19. It has advanced 2 percent this month. The common currency slid 0.1 percent to 127.89 yen, set for a 5.9 percent increase in April. The yen was little changed at 97.77 per dollar, having dropped 3.8 percent since the end of March.

West Texas Intermediate crude traded near a three-week high, even as it headed for a monthly decline. Futures were little changed in New York after advancing 1.5 percent yesterday as U.S. equities rose to a record. Crude stockpiles climbed by 1.1 million barrels last week to 389.7 million, the most since July 1990, according to the Bloomberg survey before a report from the Energy Information Administration tomorrow. U.S. exports of the commodity climbed to the highest level since April 2000 in February, with all sales going to Canada, the EIA said on its website.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL 

The euro-area jobless rate rose to a record in March. The euro-area unemployment rate advanced to 12.1 percent from 12 percent in the previous two months, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Today’s report showed that 19.2 million people were jobless in the euro area in March, up 62,000 from the previous month. Youth unemployment was at 24 percent. The jobless rate in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, held at 5.4 percent.

Despite U.S. home market holds up, spending by U.S. consumers cooled in March after the strongest gain in five months. Commerce Department figures showed that purchases advanced 0.2 percent, more than projected and reflecting a surge in outlays for utilities and other services that is unlikely to be repeated, after a 0.7 percent increase the prior month. Higher payroll taxes that took effect in January may be starting to take a bigger toll on the American worker, chipping away at the consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.


Economic confidence in the euro area decreased more than economists forecast in April. An index of executive and consumer sentiment dropped to 88.6 from a revised 90.1 in March, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That’s the lowest since December. A gauge of sentiment among European manufacturers fell to minus 13.8 from minus 12.3 in March, today’s report showed. An indicator of services confidence dropped to minus 11.1 from minus 7, while consumer sentiment improved to minus 22.3 from minus 23.5. In the meantime, business confidence and investor sentiment in Germany dropped more than expected in April.

Italy’s new centre-left Prime Minister Enrico Letta cancelled planned tax rises worth up to €6bn in a clear break with the policies of his technocrat predecessors. Laying out his programme in his first speech to parliament, Mr Letta said Europe faced a “crisis of legitimacy” and had to change its focus on austerity. But while Mr Letta promised that Italy would abide by fiscal commitments made to Europe he did not explain where the government would find the lost revenues of up to €6bn. Scant reference was made to cuts in public spending, beyond an end to funding of political parties and salaries for ministers. Mr Letta made no mention either of privatisation of state-controlled companies or sales of state assets.

REGIONAL 

Indonesia may raise fuel prices to the same level across all categories instead of revising them by vehicle type in its bid to curb subsidies. The government is “leaning toward” a single price for subsidized fuel, Julian Aldrin Pasha told reporters yesterday at the presidential palace. An alternative plan would require private car users to pay about 6,500 rupiah (67 U.S. cents) per liter, while the price for motorcycles and public transport vehicles would remain at 4,500 rupiah.

Industrial output in Japan and South Korea was less than estimates. In Japan, production climbed 0.2 percent from the previous month, the trade ministry said in Tokyo today. That was less than the median 0.4 percent forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 27 economists. Meanwhile, in Korea, according to a report released by Korean ministry of finance, the Manufacturing Production Index in March decreased by 2.5 percent from the previous month and 3.0 percent from the same period of the previous year. Today’s data add to signs of a cooling global economy after U.S. gross domestic product rose less than forecast in the first quarter and China reported an unexpected slowdown.

Singapore says wage costs may quicken amid foreign worker curbs. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said today that Singapore’s wages will grow at a faster pace in 2013, contributing to higher labor costs and price pressures even as the economy expands at a “modest” pace. In a twice-yearly review, the MAS said the island’s job market will remain “tight” this year as demand for workers outpaces supply amid the continued tightening in foreign labor. Overall wage growth could average 3 percent in 2013, compared with 2.3 percent in 2012, the central bank said. Meanwhile, a Manpower Ministry report today showed job creation in the three months through March 31 was the weakest in 10 quarters, and the unemployment rate rose from a fiveyear low. The economy added 20,800 jobs last quarter, compared with 44,000 in the previous three months, the Ministry of Manpower said today. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose to 1.9 percent from 1.8 percent, it said. Page 2 of 7


Trade between Cambodia and Thailand declined by about 2.5 per cent in the first quarter this year. Total bilateral trade reached $1.1 billion in the first three months of the year, according to the Thai embassy in Phnom Penh. Jiranun Wongmonkol, ministry counselor at the Office of Commercial Affairs at the Royal Thai Embassy in Phnom Penh, said the strengthing baht had led consumers in Cambodia to look elsewhere. Thailand ships petroleum, processed goods, consumer products, construction materials and cosmetics to Cambodia, while Cambodia primarily exports agricultural products and fishing products.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) ADB – Publication: “Development Asia” 

The ADB has publicised the latest issue of the semi-annual magazine. http://www.adb.org/news/development-asia-magazine-probes-regions-rising-inequality (Press Release) http://www.development.asia/issue14/default.asp (Magazine)

BIS – Research Paper: “Central Bank Finances” 

The BIS has publicised the captioned research paper. “This paper looks at the relevance of a central bank's own finances for its policy work. Some central banks are exposed to significant financial risks, partly due to the environment in which they operate, and partly due to the nature of policy actions. While financial exposures and losses do not hamper central banks' operational capabilities, they may weaken the effectiveness of central bank policy transmission. Against this backdrop, the paper analyses the determinants of a central bank's financial position and the possible implications of insufficient financial resources for policymaking. It also provides a conceptual framework for considering the question of whether central banks have sufficient financial resources.” http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap71.htm

IFC – Press Release: IFC Offers Support to Businesses in Central Region of Lao PDR 

IFC, helps enterprises in Lao People’s Democratic Republic with financing and expertise to grow their businesses, create jobs, improve livelihoods, and spur economic development. "Lao PDR is on the cusp of strong economic growth driven by the development of the country's natural resources and by accession to the WTO earlier this year," said Simon Andrews, IFC regional manager in the Mekong region. "Located at the intersection of important regional transport routes, Savannakhet is well-placed to benefit from the increase in regional trade. IFC plans to work with businesses, banks, the local government, business associations, and foreign investors in Savannakhet to help create jobs, raise incomes, and reduce poverty locally and throughout the country." http://www.ifc.org/ifcext/pressroom/IFCPressRoom.nsf/0/397FEB0E0784179585257B5 D000E4ED1

World Bank – Press Release: Vietnam - Danang Sustainable City Development 

The World Bank’s Board has approved a credit of US$ 202.5 million for the captioned project. The objective of the project is to expand access of city residents to improved Page 3 of 7


drainage, wastewater collection and treatment services, the arterial road network, and public transport in selected areas of Da Nang city. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/loans-credits/2013/04/26/vietnam-danangsustainable-city-development FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Previous wk's 2012 close 29-Apr 30-Apr close China 6.23 6.17 6.17 6.17 Hong Kong SAR 7.75 7.76 7.76 7.76 Indonesia 9,793.00 9,722.00 9,722.00 9,734.00 Japan 86.75 98.05 97.76 97.62 Korea 1,064.40 1,112.01 1,107.30 1,101.28 Malaysia 3.06 3.03 3.03 3.04 Philippines 41.01 41.27 41.14 41.19 Singapore 1.22 1.24 1.23 1.23 Thailand 30.59 29.24 29.26 29.36 Vietnam 20,840.00 20,930.00 20,930.00 20,935.00 Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

% change -0.01 0.00 -0.12 0.14 0.55 -0.32 -0.12 -0.04 -0.34 -0.02

2013 YTD (%chg) 1.1 -0.1 -0.8 -10.5 -3.4 -0.2 -0.8 -1.1 3.3 -0.5

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,177.9 22,547.7 4,978.5 13,884.1 1,944.6 1,711.3 7,025.4 3,348.9 1,582.9 474.5

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (%) 29-Apr 30-Apr 2.810 2.810 0.079 0.078 4.176 4.176 0.095 0.073 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000 2.592 2.656 0.076 0.076 2.750 2.750 2.388 2.388

29-Apr 2,177.9 22,580.8 4,999.8 13,884.1 1,940.7 1,708.0 7,028.4 3,361.9 1,584.9 474.5

bps change 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -2.25 0.00 0.00 6.40 0.00 0.00 0.00

30-Apr 2,177.9 22,737.0 5,034.1 13,860.9 1,964.0 1,716.3 7,071.0 3,368.6 1,589.7 474.5

% change 0.00 0.69 0.69 -0.17 1.20 0.49 0.61 0.20 0.30 0.00

2013 YTD (%chg) -4.0 -2.5 15.8 33.3 -3.3 2.5 20.6 5.2 12.9 13.4

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (%) 29-Apr 30-Apr bps change 3.882 3.882 0.00 0.377 0.377 0.00 4.900 4.900 0.00 0.230 0.230 0.00 2.760 2.760 0.00 3.210 3.210 0.00 1.166 1.428 26.20 0.371 0.371 0.00 2.853 2.852 -0.15 5.688 5.688 0.00

Page 4 of 7


CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 26-Apr 29-Apr bps change China 71.92 71.92 0.00 Hong Kong SAR 44.02 44.02 0.00 Indonesia 136.15 136.15 0.00 Japan 65.40 65.40 0.00 Korea 72.46 72.46 0.00 Malaysia 81.19 81.19 0.00 Philippines 92.03 92.03 0.00 Thailand 89.49 89.49 0.00 Vietnam 203.71 203.71 0.00 Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag. 29-Apr 30-Apr Gold Spot (in US$ per 1,475.8 1,470.2 ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Thomson Reuters Datastream

% change -0.38

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P AAAAA BB+ AAA ABB+ AAA BBB+ BB-

Moody's Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 -Aa3 A3 Ba1 -Baa1 B1

Fitch A+ AA+ BBBAA A+ ABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN US$ BILLION)

2012 China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2013

31-Aug

30-Sep

31-Oct

30-Nov

31-Dec

3,272.9

3,285.1

3,287.4

3,297.7

3,311.6

298.2

301.2

301.7

305.2

317.3

109.0

110.2

110.3

111.3

112.8

1,273.2

1,277.0

1,274.2

1,270.9

316.9

322.0

323.5

326.1

134.9

137.5

138.3

139.1

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

n.a

n.a

3,440.0

304.7

304.8

303.8

108.8

105.2

104.8

1,268.1

1,267.3

1,258.8

1,254.4

327.0

328.9

327.4

139.7

140.2

140.3

327.4 139.7

80.7

82.0

81.7

83.9

83.8

85.3

83.6

84.1

246.2

252.1

254.2

255.8

259.3

258.8

259.1

258.2

179.2

183.6

181.5

181.6

181.6

181.6

179.2

177.8

20.8 21.3 21.4 Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

23.2

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Apr

139.9

176.8

Page 5 of 7


EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS Latest Int'l Reserves

3 months imports of goods & services

Short-term external debt

Import cover (Qtrs of imports

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

(US$bn)

covered by reserves)

Reserves over short-term debt

3,311.6 521.2 572.8 6.4 China 304.8 149.4 752.6 2.0 Hong Kong SAR 55.5 43.9 1.9 Indonesia 105.2 1,254.4 70.4 2,371.0 17.8 Japan 156.7 126.7 2.1 Korea 327.4 139.7 56.7 30.4 2.5 Malaysia 20.1 8.5 4.2 Philippines 84.0 259.1 121.5 964.3 2.1 Singapore 68.1 60.7 2.6 Thailand 176.8 21.3 30.9 10.0 Vietnam Notes: Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data are as of 4Q 2012, except for China, which is 3Q 2012, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt, and are released quarterly. DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators

Economies

JAPAN SINGAPORE JAPAN HONG KONG JAPAN SOUTH KOREA THAILAND THAILAND THAILAND SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA THAILAND THAILAND

Job-To-Applicant Ratio Unemployment Rate (sa)% Industrial Production YOY% Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def (HKD bn) Jobless Rate % Industrial Production (YoY)% Business Sentiment Index Total Exports YOY% Total Imports YOY% Business Survey- Manufacturing Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing Industrial Production (MoM)% Current Account Balance (USD mn) Total Trade Balance (USD mn)

Period

Mar 1Q P Mar P Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar May May Mar Mar Mar

Last

5.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.6 4.6 9.9 0.3 2.9 -

Previous

0.86

1.90 -7.30 -10.91 4.10 -3 54.4 4.2 -12.5 81 72 -2.6 1936 2025

0.85 1.8 -10.5 -6.2 4.3 -9.3 51.2 -4.6 3.7 80 71 -0.8 1568 575

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (15 Apr – 19 Apr 2013) Expected Release Date

4/29/2013 4/30/2013

Economies

Indicators

Period

SOUTH KOREA JAPAN PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE JAPAN HONG KONG JAPAN SOUTH KOREA THAILAND THAILAND THAILAND SOUTH KOREA

Current Account in (USD mn) Job-To-Applicant Ratio Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn) Unemployment Rate (sa)% Industrial Production YOY% Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def (HKD bn) Jobless Rate % Industrial Production (YoY)% Business Sentiment Index Total Exports YOY% Total Imports YOY% Business Survey- Manufacturing

Mar Mar Mar 1Q P Mar P Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar May

Page 6 of 7


5/1/2013

5/2/2013

5/3/2013

SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA THAILAND THAILAND SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA CHINA JAPAN SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA INDONESIA INDONESIA INDONESIA INDONESIA INDONESIA THAILAND THAILAND INDONESIA CHINA INDONESIA INDONESIA HONG KONG HONG KONG THAILAND INDONESIA HONG KONG INDONESIA

Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing Industrial Production (MoM)% Current Account Balance (USD mn) Total Trade Balance (USD mn) HSBC Manufacturing PMI Consumer Price Index (YoY)% PMI Manufacturing Official Reserve Assets (USD bn) Consumer Price Index (MoM)% Foreign Exchange Reserve (USD bn) Ext Trade - Imports (YoY)% Core Consumer Price Index(YoY)% Total Trade Balance (USD mn) Inflation NSA (MoM)% Exports (YoY)% Core Inflation (YoY)% Total Imports (YoY)% Core CPI (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Inflation (YoY)% HSBC Manufacturing PMI Consumer Confidence Index Money Supply - M2 (YoY)% Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)% Retail Sales - Value (YoY)% Foreign Reserves (USD bn) Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln) Purchasing Managers Index Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

May Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Mar Apr Mar Apr Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Mar Mar Mar Apr 26 Apr Apr Apr

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on the publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to on the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation will not be the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 7 of 7

Market Update for ASEAN+3 Apr2013  
Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you