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Nanovic Institute for European Studies The rise of Trump proved helpful for another French politician, Marine Le Pen. The leader of the Rassamblement National (formerly known as the Front National) saw Trump’s victory in 2016, along with the Brexit referendum, as the potential beginnings of an international rebuke of globalist political “elites.”101 The Rassamblement and their anti-globalist platform naturally favored a second Trump term over the perceived “third Obama term” of a Biden presidency. However, a wider distaste for Trump led most French politicians, Macron included, to view Biden’s victory as good news.102 President Biden will pose new challenges for Macron who finds himself on unsteady political footing. France’s president faces bipartisan criticism for both his handling of the pandemic and ongoing tensions surrounding the country’s Muslim population.103 Macron hopes to steer France and lead Europe towards a future of “strategic autonomy” with limited American influence, and has cautioned against returning to the traditional, asymmetrical U.S.-European power dynamic.104 Moreover, Biden’s emphasis on identity politics, as evidenced by his racially and gender, but not ideologically, diverse cabinet picks, does not align with the legacy of secularism and the idea of a neutral or universal citizen in France.105 The 2020 French municipal elections exposed the fragility of Macron’s party, leaving him vulnerable to challengers across the political spectrum. While Macron has been proclaiming the need for increased European and French independence, it is uncertain how far he is willing or able to achieve these means. The absence of Trump’s anti-establishment force in the U.S. may prevent Macron from fully committing to these goals. For the time being, the Biden administration should face little opposition from Paris, as the two sides cooperate with an eye towards achieving their shared international goals: combating terrorism, enacting policies to prevent the climate crisis, and renewing transatlantic trade. However, there may be an impasse when it comes to revitalizing NATO. GERMANY
Like France, the 2020 U.S. election represents a somewhat critical juncture for Germany’s international leadership capacities. Trump tattered the historically positive University of Notre Dame | Keough School of Global Affairs
