SYSTEMS SPOT
All hail King Ralph!
Beckett is one of the few major trainers you can back blindly and make a profit
Y
es we know it’s pronounced “Rafe” but why let that spoil a good headline, especially when you look at the profit margin from following the brilliant Mr Beckett. He sent out his first winner in 2000 and has been gradually improving his strikerate ever since, while also picking up ever bigger prizes along the way. Take his record over the past 10 seasons in all races: Year Bets Wins Win% £1 bet Plcs Plc% 2013 154 32 21% 54.11 65 42% 2012 386 64 17% -58.15 153 40% 2011 370 56 15% -49.92 136 37% 2010 403 70 17% 111.41 145 36% 2009 396 59 15% 85.08 133 34% 2008 343 43 13% -4.51 117 34% 2007 325 41 13% 105.33 110 34% 2006 263 31 12% -60.16 81 31% 2005 224 32 14% 134.67 70 31% 2004 216 17 8% 9.48 56 26% 2003 235 18 8% -98.32 51 22% And the total since 2003 in all races: Bets Wins Win% £1 bet Plcs Plc% 3315 463 14% 229.02 1117 33.70% So it’s seemingly as simple as back every horse Ralph Beckett sends out and you’ll make a profit. There aren’t many trainers who have around 400 runners per year that are in the same situation. Of course, we’re not suggesting you do that as you would have made a loss in two of the past three seasons. Instead, zone in on non-handicap races where Beckett’s
GLORIOUS GOODWOOD
30th July - 3rd August
strike-rate is much higher and the profits are likewise. Here is the Beckett record in all non-handicap races since 2003. Bets Wins Win% £1 bet Plcs Plc% 1708 259 15.2% 408.52 619 36.24% That’s a better overall strike-rate and a much better overall profit to a £1 stake. Looking at the timeframe for non-handicaps, there has been an improvement in strike-rate in recent seasons:
Year Bets Wins Win% £1 bet Plcs Plc% 2013 71 13 18% 4.63 32 45% 2012 184 30 16% -38.55 70 38% 2011 210 37 18% -8.04 90 43% 2010 227 45 20% 137.52 95 42% 2009 222 35 16% 71.13 77 35% 2008 195 26 13% 0.13 66 34% 2007 146 24 16% 179.37 56 38% 2006 117 12 10% -17.5 35 30% 2005 104 15 14% 91.17 33 32% 2004 118 13 11% 55.48 36 31% 2003 114 9 8% -66.82 29 25% You can cut down the number of bets and improve the strike-rate yet further by concentrating on the tracks where Beckett does best: Bet Win Win% £1 bet Plcs Plc% Southwell 30 10 33% 4.50 15 50% Pontefract 19 6 32% 5.36 10 53% Nottingham 67 18 27% 28.27 36 54% Kempton 178 45 25% 102 86 48% Epsom 28 6 21% 41.38 11 39% Yarmouth 15 3 20% -8.87 7 47% Ripon 10 2 20% -3.76 4 40% Wolver 74 14 19% -1.12 30 41% Ayr 11 2 18% -2.83 5 45% Chepstow 61 11 18% 14.56 22 36% Newm (Row) 67 11 16% 213.00 26 39% One big winner at Newmarket has skewed the profit column somewhat but there are enough tracks here to offer enough interest through the season. Nottingham seems to be a particularly fertile ground for Beckett runners in nonhandicaps, as does Kempton Park.
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