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2nd Quarter 2013

TENNESSEE HOUSING MARKET by David A. Penn, Director • Business and Economic Research Center • Middle Tennessee State University

Some employers reduced workforces as suggested by a rise in initial claims for unemployment insurance. Initial claims increased 5.1% from the first quarter, rising by a weekly average of 278 but not out of line with the level experienced during the past six quarters (Figure 1).

Produced by the Business and Economic Research Center at Middle Tennessee State University and supported by a Tennessee Housing Development Agency grant

Economic Overview

T

Labor force changed little, but unemployment rose 14,000, causing the unemployment rate to rise to 8.3% from 7.8% during the first quarter.

he strong first-quarter job performance faded during the second quarter, with important labor-market indicators showing little change. Slower job growth corresponds with several events in the past few months, including the payroll tax increase that took effect earlier this year, significant cuts to federal government spending, and reduced demand for U.S. goods from our trading partners in China and Europe. Nonfarm employment in Tennessee rose by 4,700 jobs, a lackluster 0.2% gain. Manufacturing lost 1,000 jobs, but the services-providing sectors gained 4,200 (Table 1).

Slower growth is also reflected by very slow growth of state sales tax collections, up just 1.4% over the year. Collections have grown very slowly over the past 15 months, reflecting slower spending growth. continued on page 2

Table 1. Selected Tennessee employment indicators (thousands, seasonally adjusted)

Employment by industry (nonfarm) Total nonfarm Goods-producing sectors Manufacturing Services-providing sectors Labor force Total employment Unemployed

2012.2

2012.3

2012.4

2013.1

2013.2

2,713 423 313 2,290 3,112 2,859 253

2,716 424 315 2,292 3,109 2,858 251

2,732 426 317 2,306 3,121 2,880 241

2,752 428 320 2,325 3,130 2,886 244

2,758 429 319 2,329 3,128 2,870 258

8.1%

8.1%

7.7%

7.8%

8.3%

Unemployment rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Figure 1. Tennessee initial claims for unemployment insurance (quarterly averages of weekly data, seasonally adjusted) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Employment & Training Administration 1

2

3 2008

berc

4

1

2

3 2009

4

1

2

3 2010

4

1

2

3

4

2011

Business and Economic Research Center • Middle Tennessee State University

1

2

3 2012

4

1

2 2013

1


Tennessee Housing Market