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Final Round-Table Workshop "New Approaches and Recent Results of Sustainability Scenario Building and Modelling" Brussels, 25 Nov. 2008

The FORESCENE project: Developing scenarios and modelling for sustainability Stefan Bringezu, Mathieu Saurat, Roy Haines-Young, Alison Rollett, Mats Svensson

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Nov. 08


Contents 

Background and overview of project

The questions: 1 to 6

The FORESCENE Meta-Model

The scenarios

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Background and overview of the FORESCENE project

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Initial points

Need of a framework for creating sustainability scenarios integrating different environmental topics (water, soil, resource use etc.)

Need for access to scenarios that can be used for strategic policy preparation in the context of the Sustainable Development Strategy.

Need to understand the key driving forces and their cross-cutting linkages, which lead to increased pressure on the environment.

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Objectives

ďƒ˜

FORESCENE is developping an analytical framework for consistent environmental sustainability scenario building (forecasting, backcasting, simulation) in areas such as water, soil, biodiversity, waste and natural resources.

ďƒ˜

There is a focus on backcasting, to identify different scenarios leading to the achievement of future targets.

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Overview of project tasks • describe the chosen environmental problems, review policy objectives and indicators, and determine the cross-cutting driving forces; • develop core elements of integrated sustainability scenarios (goal definition); • determine cross-sectoral measures and processes to be considered for change (prebackcasting); • address quantitative and qualitative parameters for measurement (parametrization); • develop a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario framework and example projections (forecasting); • develop alternative backcasting);

scenarios

(incl.

• check the options for modelling, and • work out conclusions. WI, CEM, LUCSUS

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a

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1)

What is the problem?

2)

Where shall we go to?

3)

How to get there?

4)

How to measure and model this?

5)

What is likely to happen with BAU?

6)

Which alternative scenarios are possible?

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Question 1: What is the problem?

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Conceptual Basis Socio-industrial metabolism and DPSIR framework

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Answering question 1

Highest scoring cross-cutting factors for biodiversity/soils, water, resources/waste: - globalization, - composition of material input, - material intensity, - depletion of resources

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Question 2: Where shall we go to?

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Outlining a desirable future

Towards sustainability goal references

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Outlining a desirable future

Towards sustainability goal references

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Outlining a desirable future

Towards sustainability goal references

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Answering question 2

Sustainability goal references

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Question 3: How to get there ?

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Answering question 3

Cross-sectoral, multi-beneficial sustainability strategies

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Answering question 3

Policy strategies and measures

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Question 4: How to measure and model this ?

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Requirements for modelling

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Structure of the FORESCENE Meta Model

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Disclaimer

Important: The Bayesian network approach is not seen in FORESCENE as a replacement of other models in current use but rather as a means of integrating different forms of knowledge, whether from existing models, reported data or expert judgement. In other words, the Bayesian network approach is used to construct a meta-model.

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General model structure

• Inputs (drivers, strategies) are considered at EU level • Outputs (environmental impacts associated with EU) are considered at world level (except for water) WI, CEM, LUCSUS

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The FORESCENE Meta Model main modules Economy module Mineral materials module

Fossil energy module

Biofuel module

Water module

Biomass and agri land use module GHG module

 The modules are separately developed Bayesian networks  Modules can evolve independently, due to different levels of knowledge. WI, CEM, LUCSUS

Biodiversity and soils module

"Hard" evidence (functions) can be combined with "soft" expert judgement  Results are given as probabilities Brussels

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Mineral materials module Overview of the structure

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Mineral materials module Overview of the structure

TMRminerals

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Detailed model structure

Different modules model target indicators of environmental impact under the influence of drivers and control parameters whose values can be modified to test the efficiency of sustainability strategies. WI, CEM, LUCSUS

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Detailed model structure

Different modules model target indicators of environmental impact under the influence of drivers and control parameters whose values can be modified to test the efficiency of sustainability strategies. WI, CEM, LUCSUS

Brussels

Nov. 08


Detailed model structure

Different modules model target indicators of environmental impact under the influence of drivers and control parameters whose values can be modified to test the efficiency of sustainability strategies. WI, CEM, LUCSUS

Brussels

Nov. 08


Detailed model structure

Different modules model target indicators of environmental impact under the influence of drivers and control parameters whose values can be modified to test the efficiency of sustainability strategies. WI, CEM, LUCSUS

Brussels

Nov. 08


Time dimension

Bayesian networks do not allow for intrinsic modelling of time dynamics in a satisfactory way. WI, CEM, LUCSUS

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Format of results

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Question 5: What happens with BAU ?

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Baseline scenario

ďƒ˜

Initial conditions -

ďƒ˜

Assumptions for forecasting: -

ďƒ˜

Initial year is 2000 (or 2005 in when data available) Initial values are directly taken or estimated from reported or modelled data (e.g. Eurostat), or derived from expert judgement

Time frame: 2000-2050 Assumptions for growth rates are directly taken or estimated from existing studies and models (e.g. EEA environment outlook)

Uncertainties -

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They are implemented as normal distributions For example: when two different sources give the values x and y for a given variable A, the representation of A in the BN can be a normal distribution with mean = (x+y)/2 and 90% CI = |x-y|/2

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Baseline scenario

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Question 6: Which alternative scenarios are possible ?

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Developing alternative scenarios

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Alternative scenarios AS1, Commitment to change

Under this scenario there is clear commitment to the goals of sustainability. There are marked improve-ments in the efficiencies of using energy, materials and water, and there is expan-sion in renewable energy production. The rate of change is moderate to high and significant improvements have mostly been achieved by 2030. …..

AS2, Muddling through

Under this scenario some of the sustainability goals identified are achieved in the medium term, but success is patchy and modest.……

AS3, Failing to deliver

Under this scenario the transition to sustainability has been unsuccessful or weak. Increased consumption of resource intensive goods has meant that there has been less progress towards higher energy and resource efficiency…..

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Scenario: Commitment for change impacts on biodiversity status

Base-line

•GHG emissions: • Base line to 2025 • Mid range, 2030-3035 • Low range 2035-2050

2050 - baseline

•After 2025: • Low non-compliance in agriculture • Green forest management • Strong soil framework directive

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2050 - alternative

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Scenario: Commitment for change impacts on biodiversity status (intra EU)

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Scenario: Commitment for change impacts on biodiversity status (intra EU)

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Alternative scenario: Commitment to change

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Alternative scenario: Muddling through

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Alternative scenario: Failing to deliver

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Modelling exercise

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Modelling exercise

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Modelling exercise

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Synergistic effects of modelled strategies 

Reduction of TMR reduces domestic and foreign waste generation

Environmental burden shifting is reduced: - no land use change/pressure on biodiverstiy in other regions due to biofuels - reduced foreign TMR/mining waste

Water consumption tends to decline due to - reduced cooling water demand energy supply - reduced material use in manufacturing

Improved biodiversity due to mitigated GHG emissions (and additional measures)

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Many thanks for your attention ! stefan.bringezu@wupperinst.org


Contact Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Mathieu Saurat phone:+ 49 202 2992 312 fax: + 49 202 2992 138 email: mathieu.saurat@wupperinst.org

www.forescene.eu

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The FORESCENE project: Developing scenarios and modelling for sustainability  

Presentation at FORESCENE's Final Round-table Workshop in Brussels (Nov. 25, 2008): New approaches and recent results of sustainability scen...

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