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Mis-measurement of ICT A Panel Conference 1 October 2004

Panel 2: Measuring ICT in the Developing World - The ‘Digital Divide’ Michael Minges Senior Market Analyst


Mis-measurement • Wrong concepts—often used for political reasons • Poor data—often because not available for developing nations • Bad data—bad surveys • Incomparable data—what do we want to measure? • Moving target—ICT sector changes so often • Press—good to disseminate information but sometimes make mistakes


VIEW Issue 10.10 | Oct 2002

Sorry, Wrong Number The world’s favorite statistic about phone use is no longer true. So why won’t people just drop it? By Clay Shirky

“HALF THE WORLD HASN'T MADE A CALL YEAH RIGHT”


Friday, December 5, 2003

Statistical Gap Makes Digital Divide Hard To Assess, Study Says A shortage of reliable statistics on Internet use poses a challenge to assessing the extent of the digital divide between and within the world's rich and poor nations, the International Telecommunication Union said in a report released yesterday ahead of next week's global summit on the technology gap.


“A close link exists between the digital and  statistical divide” Low Income Upper Middle  100%

Lower Middle  High Income

70%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

40% 5%

0% Population

Lower Middle High Income

100%

16%

80%

Low income Upper Middle

Internet users

23%

60%

33%

0% Countries

0% Internet survey


U.N. Reports Flawed Statistics on Web Use Friday December 5, 2003

GENEVA (AP) - The extent of the technology gap between richer and poorer nations may be smaller than believed because of flawed statistics on Internet use, the U.N. communications agency said Thursday. The annual study by the International Telecommunication Union came a week before the start of the agency-sponsored World Summit on the Information Society, a gathering of world leaders in Geneva. ``Everyone's going to be talking about the digital divide, and how massive it is,'' said Michael Minges, co-author of the study. ``Is the digital divide as big as we think? The answer is `No.'''


Over­surveyed

Internet user surveys in Europe 90

Spain

50 44

Den­ mark

42

80 70 60

EU

29 23

50

Spain

40

19

30

Greece

20 10 0

Nielsen SIBIS Gallup TNS

AUI

NSO

Gallup

NSO

Internet users as % of 14/15/16+ population, 2002 NSO = National Statistics Office


The shrinking digital divide? Internet users per 100 inhabitants

Peru, 2000

3.9

2.0

Estimate Mexico, 2002

Survey

9.8

4.6

Estimate

Thailand, 2001 3.8

Estimate Jamaica, 2003

5.8

Survey

25.7

5.0 Survey

Estimate

Survey


What is an Internet user? Internet users per 100 inhabitants, 2002 Taiwan, China

Internet access usage method, Japan, 2002

38.3

Australia

42.7

HK, China

43.1

Japan

44.9

New Zealand

Mobile phone only PC and mobile phone 43%

9.6

48.4

Singapore

54.0

Korea (Rep.)

55.2 0

20

Mobile phone only 22%

PC only 35%

40

60

Source: M. Minges, “Measuring mobile Internet”.

Source: Adapted from Nomura Research Institute.


2004.09.09

Korea leads in high-speed mobile networks: report BUSAN - Korea leads countries in the Asia-Pacific region in the use of high-speed mobile networks, with 84.5 percent of mobile subscribers accessing the services, according to a new report from Telecommunications Management Group Inc., a U.S.-based consultancy. "Ironically, the high use of SMS in these countries, may actually be a barrier to more advanced multimedia applications. Operators are making significant revenue from text messaging in countries where SMS is booming, such as China, Indonesia and the Philippines. The downside is that it makes them reluctant to invest in faster networks and multimedia content," said Michael Minges, senior market analyst at TMG.


The mobile Internet digital divide‌ ‌is worse than the conventional digital divide Japan

31.0%

S. Korea

24.8%

Singapore

7.9%

Japan

60.6

S. Korea

60.3

N.Zealand

52.6 51.0

Taiwan

2.0%

Singapore

H.Kong

2.0%

H. Kong

47.2

Australia

1.6%

Australia

46.2

N.Zealand

1.3%

Taiwan

Malaysia

0.9%

Malaysia

Thailand

0.5%

Philippines

0.4%

China 0.2% Indonesia 0.1% India 0.0%

Mobile Internet users as % of population, 2003

Source: TMG.

Thailand

39.0 34.5 9.6

China

6.2

Philippines

4.9

Indonesia

4.6

India

3.0

Internet users as % of population, 2003


Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics Rank in ICT indices (low number = better)


Digital Access Index Top 10 Economy

Sweden Denmark Iceland Korea (Rep.) Norway Netherlands Hong Kong, China Finland Taiwan, China Canada United States UK Switzerland (13th)

Infra­ structure

Afford­ ability

Know­ ledge

Quality

Usage

DAI

0.94 0.89 0.89 0.74 0.84 0.78 0.93 0.81 0.98 0.69 0.74 0.86 0.86

0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99

0.99 0.99 0.96 0.96 0.99 0.99 0.83 0.99 0.95 0.97 0.97 0.99 0.95

0.64 0.66 0.50 0.74 0.55 0.61 0.68 0.55 0.56 0.64 0.54 0.53 0.60

0.67 0.60 0.76 0.65 0.59 0.60 0.51 0.60 0.45 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.50

0.847 0.828 0.820 0.817 0.793 0.792 0.790 0.786 0.786 0.779 0.778 0.77 0.76


Reversal of fortune Change in rank  relative to 40  economies

DAI 2002

0.72 ­9 0.60

0.74 ­8 0.61

0.78

0.77

­5

­5

0.66

0.77 ­3

0.75 +4

0.66

0.75 +5

0.61 DAI 1998

0.58

0.56

0.79

0.78

+6

+13

0.81

+20

0.59 0.56

0.55

New AustraliaUnited Canada United JapanSingaporeHong Taiwan, Korea Zealand States Kingdom Kong, China (Rep.) China


25.11.2003

NZ 'losing race' on broadband

Telecommunications analyst Paul Budde says New Zealand is missing a $2 billion growth opportunity through its failure to fully embrace broadband. An International Telecommunications Union (ITU) study of 178 economies which found New Zealand dropped from 12th to 21st in access to information and communications technology is clear evidence that New Zealand's strategies are not working, Budde said. But Information Technology Minister David Cunliffe said NZ was pushed back in the rankings by Asian tiger economies, and the report was not a cause for panic. Cunliffe said he would go to Geneva next month for the UN summit on the information society, and visit Korea on the way back to see how that country had jumped to number 4 in the ITU rankings.


Friday, Nov 21, 2003

`Tech power' India gets poor billing — Just four ranks away from ITU's `Low Access' category

Mis-measurement of ICT  

Mis-measurement of ICT A Panel Conference 1 October 2004 Mis-measurement • Wrong concepts—often used for political reasons • Poor data—often...

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