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As shown in Figure 6 below, the profile of the CO2 reduction between 2020 and 2040 is projected to be different amongst the Policy Options. Policy Option 2 is indeed projected to reap the benefits of EU action sooner than Policy Options 3 and 4149.
Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model
Figure 6: Approach followed to reduce transport CO2 emissions by 60% over 1990 levels150 and evolution of well to wheel emissions
223.
On well-to-wheel basis, the Policy Options deliver over 65% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to the Policy Option 1151 assuming that power generation is decarbonised. Power generation mix plays here an important role: the large scale electrification of transport, not accompanied by the decarbonisation of power generation, would only shift CO2 emissions from transport to the energy sector152.
5.4.2.
Impact on air and noise pollution
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As highlighted in Table 8, external costs of transport to the society would continue to increase in Policy Option 1. The increase in traffic would lead to roughly 20 bn € increase of noise related external costs by 2050. NOx emissions and particulate
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Urban planning measures are used as residual component in order to reach the 60% targets in Policy Option 4. Their importance is moderate, as indicated by a CO2 shadow price of about 200 €’08/ t of CO2 by 2050. This shadow price is close to the CO2 price from the “Effective and widely accepted technology” scenario from the Impact Assessment of the “Low-carbon economy 2050 roadmap”. This price signal mimics a combination of measures like: traffic management through congestion charges, integrate planning through urban mobility plans and improvements in public transport and soft modes infrastructure. Policy Options 2 and 3 use the same price signals for urban as Policy Option 4. The 60% CO2 emissions reduction target does not cover international maritime and therefore they are not reported in this figure. The 60% CO2 emissions reduction target only covers the tank to wheel emissions. The well-to-wheel CO2 emission factors for biofuels and electricity are identical to those applied in the “Effective and widely accepted technology” scenario from the Impact Assessment of the “Low-carbon economy 2050 Roadmap”. Such a shift would not result in higher absolute emissions however: the EU Emission Trading Scheme effectively caps emissions from power generation.
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