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THE Future Of Energy USE in America Presented by chris Deal, modus


overview Background Why should we care? Where are we now? How did we get here? Where are we going? Final thoughts Q&A


Iowa State University Bachelor of Science Mechanical Engineering

Past Experience WISE (Washington, D.C. Policy internship) Center for Sustainable Environmental Technologies Biomass Energy Conversion Facility Duane Arnold Energy Center LEED Project Management tool

Uganda Rotary Ambassadorial Scholarship Recipient Master of Science, Renewable Energy

About chris

Founder of EOS International EOS is focused on promoting sustainable development through the application of appropriate technology in the developing world


About modus


So‌ THE Future of energy USE in America


Whygood It’s should design We Ourcare? clients care Competitive advantage


Where are we now?


Total energy usage in the US


Wait, what’s a quad? A quad is energy-nerd slang for 1015 BTU. That’s 1,000,000,000,000,000 BTU 1 BTU = energy required to raise 1 Lb of water by 1ºF How much energy is that? 8,007,000,000 Gallons (US) of gasoline 36,000,000 Tons of coal 970,434,000,000 Cubic feet of natural gas 15,750 Hiroshima nuclear bombs The US used 95 quads of energy in 2012.


US Building Energy usage Total energy usage in the US


How did we get here?


Historical drivers of Energy usage Cost & availability of resource Technology Incentives Legislation/code Potential legislation Public Sentiment


Where are we going?


Driving Factor #1: Cost and availability


TWO PROJECTIONS: • Reference case Real GDP grows @ annual rate of 2.5% Crude oil rises in costs to $163/barrel (2011$) • High Oil & Natural Gas US production of oil & natural gas is 2x as much as expected; 50% more reserves available than expected


Driving Factor #2: Technology


Driving Factor #3: incentives


Many existing incentives are due to phase out This phase-out will have an impact on how quickly the technology grows


Driving Factor #4: Legislation and code


ASHRAE ASHRAE90.1 & &ItsIECC Influence

Drive the design of new buildings, Future Goals for ASHRAE Standard 90.1 additions, and alterationsSource: to existing Presidential Themes: ASHRAE Learning Institute Buildings 60

2006: The ASHRAE Promise: A Sustainable Future 2007: Greater Efficiency Today, Blue Skies Tomorrow 50 IECC adopted, by reference, ASHRAE 90.1 Market-viable net zero by 2030 (compliance with ASHRAE 90.1 qualifies 40 2008: Maintain to Sustain: Delivering ASHRAE’s for compliance with IECC) 30 Sustainability • IECC 2009Promise accepts ASHRAE 90.1-2007 2009: Sustaining Our Future by Rebuilding Our Past 20 • IECC 2012 accepts ASHRAE 2010: Modeling a Sustainable World 90.1-2010 10 2011: ASHRAE Through Leadership October 18,Sustaining 2013 ASHRAE’s 0 –2012: DOEBroadening requires all states to adopt Horizons 1999 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2013: Shaping theor Next ASHRAE 90.1-2010 upgrade

Energy Intensity (kBtu/ft^2)

Operate hand-in-hand

ASHRAE Standard 90.1 Revision their existing commercial building codes to meet or exceed its requirements


Beyond Code Programs


As of 2009, over 300 Programs have been Adopted. USGBC: LEED EPA: ENERGY STAR ASHRAE: Standard 189 ASTM & AIA: IGCC RESNET: Home Energy Rating System Green Building Initiative: Green Globes


Driving Factor #5: Potential Legislation


July 2007 – Interstate Power & Light (IPL - subsidiary of Alliant Energy) filed application with Iowa Utilities Board (IUB) for a new $1.3B coal plan near Marshalltown, IA March 2009 – Alliant drops plans to build coal plant August 2012 – Alliant announces “Plan B” a $700M combined cycle natural gas plant


Driving Factor #6: Public Sentiment


Following the Fukushima accident, the World Energy Outlook 2011 had a 60% increase in nuclear capacity to 2035, compared with about 90% the year before.


Projected energy usage


Projected building energy usage


Expected Trends Production/USE Natural Gas Renewables Residential Commercial Renewables in commercial buildings


Production/USE


Most new electricity capacity still comesuse additions from coal. natural gas and renewables.


Natural Gas


Shale All sectors gas provides use more the largest natural source gas, except of growth. residential.


US becomes Prices expected a net to rise, but are exporter of natural dependent on gas. numerous scenarios.


Renewables


Solar PV State renewable and wind portfolio standards dominate growth. increase renewable electricity generation.


Residential


Electricity use Residential efficiency per household gains


Commercial


Commercial Expected changes floor in commercial space energy efficiency


Renewables in commercial buildings


Reference: 30% federal tax credit reverts to 10% in 2017 for all distributed generation technologies Solar: Increases by 7.4% annually w/out sunset Still increases by 6.5% annually w/ expiration of credit


Knowledge is power Distributed Generation


Expected Growth of dg


Solar, looking brighter brighter


Final Thoughts The future of US energy usage is strongly driven by six factors 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Cost and availability Technology Incentives Legislation and Code Potential Legislation Public Sentiment

Natural gas and renewables will play key roles, but for different reasons Efficiencies will continue to increase, but not enough to offset total growth On-site solar is poised for a rapid expansion Understanding the drivers and likely future scenarios helps us plan strategically for our clients and allows us to differentiate ourselves in the market.


Q&A


Deal aia presentation final