What is happening to our missing salmon? Many of those representing organisations that work to protect wild Atlantic salmon get asked the same question again and again: “What is happening to our salmon population?” Unquestionably the answer is a combination of the known and the unknown – getting to the bottom of the “unknown” bit is the challenge. The Atlantic Salmon Trust (AST) has picked up this challenge with organisations that have common aims to our own. And our latest and most ambitious project aims to do this with your help. We all know that every year wild salmon start one of the planet’s greatest natural migrations, travelling thousands of miles out to sea to return to their native river to spawn. It’s a journey this incredible species has been making for more than 60 million years. But these remarkable fish are now dying somewhere en route in larger numbers than ever before. This year, for every 100 salmon smolts that leave our rivers for the sea less than five will return – a decline of nearly 70% in just 25 years.
In a period of just over 40 years, wild Atlantic salmon numbers around the world have more than halved. The total population in the Atlantic has fallen from 8-10 million fish in the early 1970s to 3-4 million today. But where exactly is the bulk of this mortality occurring; how many are dying at sea, or how many are failing to even make it that far? The warning is stark. If this trend continues salmon could be an endangered species in our lifetime.
What needs to be done?
The race is now on for scientists, fisheries managers, fishermen and those that care about the environment to solve the mystery of the missing salmon before it’s too late. Collectively, we must take action on a scale never seen before to identify what is happening and determine how to halt this decline. Put simply, if we can find out what is happening on the salmon’s journey, we can take steps to help increase survival. Wild speculation on the causes of decline are no good – we need evidence. A fully integrated scientific study to find out what’s happening to wild salmon on their journey down our river systems and out to sea is needed. Only then can evidence-based recommendations be made to inform policy and enable management solutions. For this reason, the Atlantic Salmon Trust, has launched The Missing Salmon Project. The objective of this booklet is to explain very briefly the issues and our approach to finding the missing salmon. If you would like to learn more about The Missing Salmon Project please visit: www.atlanticsalmontrust.org/themissingsalmonproject We hope very much you can help us in our quest. The ways you can help are on the back page.
To donate, visit: www.crowdfunder.co.uk/themissingsalmonproject
The task at hand is momentous but the action needed is perfectly clear. We urgently need to know: • What are the migration pathways our smolts use? • How do we quantify the major impacts on their mortality during this journey? • How to improve their survival rate so more fish return?
Current Decline in Wild atlantic salmon Is this Salmon’s future?
8%
6.5%
6%
5%
3%
1%
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
Returning salmon
1985
10%
Endangered Species *illustrative only
The plan to reverse this trend Identify key reasons for mortality The Likely Suspects Framework will gather and analyse evidence to determine the causes of mortality.
Prioritise the causes of mortality By evaluating the evidence in the Likely Suspects Framework, we can define the most likely causes and focus actions on the priority suspects.
Create and implement plans to reverse the trend With a defined list of likely causes of mortality, we can influence policy and develop measures to reduce the decline.
Step
Identify key reasons for mortality
1
In 2017 international scientists commenced work on the creation of a Likely Suspects Framework for salmon. This framework will use evidence and research into salmon mortality from the UK, Ireland, Norway, Iceland, USA, Canada and Russia to identify why wild salmon numbers are being decimated.
The Likely Suspects Framework uses evidence gathered at international, national, regional and local levels to identify where and why salmon mortality is ocurring during migration.
By determining which suspect is of most significance in causing mortality, the Likely Suspects Framework will be able to inform management plans to help give salmon the highest chance of survival.
Annual Salmon migration River Section
Example Mortality Suspects Approx Loss
Headwaters
Main stem
Estuarine
Coastal Zone
Commercial forestry Agricultural runoff
Avian predation
Seals
Aquaculture Netting
xx%
xx%
xx%
xx%
Open Ocean
Climate Change Pelagic by-catch
xx%
Deploying acoustic receivers Photo courtesy of OTN
The tagging project In order to help identify the key reasons for mortality in juvenile salmon (smolts) and as a key part of The Missing Salmon Project, a co-ordinated UK wide Acoustic Tracking (Tagging) program is being developed. The program will track wild salmon to help understand what is preventing them from returning to UK rivers. The tagging project will build on previous projects but will commence in the Moray Firth, where 20% of UK salmon start their migration. This acoustic tracking project will be the largest of its kind to take place in Europe and will track smolts further than ever before. The lessons learnt from the Moray Firth will provide valuable insights that are transferable to other populations of salmon around the UK. In addition it will help the execution of other projects. The Missing Salmon Project will support Acoustic Tracking with the objective of populating the suspects framework with relevant data. Moray Firth Tracking Project West Sutherland Fisheries Trust/AST/Glasgow Univeristy/ Marine Scotland – sea trout acoustic tagging project 2018 Marine Scotland Shieldaig & Balgy sea trout/salmon acoustic tagging project – 2018 & 2019 River Dee salmon smolt acoustic tracking study 2016-2018 Potential Projects
The Moray Firth Array
Dornoch Firth Array Inner Moray Array
Step
2
Prioritise the causes for mortality
The Likely Suspects Framework will allow scientists to : • Prioritise Likely Suspects in order of importance based on the impact they have on a given salmon population.
• Identify the percentage of Likely Suspects that cannot be addressed by management action (indicated by the numbers in yellow in the diagram).
• Define a Priority List for conservation or management action at International, National, Regional and River level.
Example river system results River Section
Headwaters
5% Approx Loss
Commercial forestry Agricultural runoff
Main stem
15% Avian predation
Estuarine
Coastal Zone
5%
20%
Seals
Netting
#1 le, p ge r m u n o a a e Ex ch For would b ffect a r This ity to fic rive i r prio is spec h in t
Open Ocean Can be addressed
Climate Change and Other Factors Climate change Health of feeding grounds Pelagic competition Not Known Etc.
5% Pelagic by-catch
50%
Difficult to address Priority to be addressed Cannot be addressed
A track record of success The likely suspects approach has a track record of success. It was used by scientists to establish key reasons for unaccounted-for mortality in cod stocks in the Irish Sea as part of an evaluation which led to a change in management of the stock. •
In the 1970s the amount of cod was measured at 18,000 tonnes in the Irish Sea
•
In 2000 the amount of cod had diminished to 850 tonnes
•
Today, cod stocks have returned to 11,000 tonnes
Step
3
Create and implement plans to reverse the trend
The evidence collected and results produced by the Likely Suspects Framework will provide data to inform policy on salmon stock management and conservation. With this scientific evidence in place, we will form recommendations and actions on an international, national, regional and local river level.
A river Plan
A regional Plan
2018 The Missing Salmon Project will work with all the relevant agencies to approve stock recovery plans and recommendations which will be presented to policy makers to enact change and save wild salmon from becoming an endangered species.
A national Plan
An international Plan
2023
Catching smolts on the River Spey
What success looks like
8%
6.5%
1990
1995
2000
Returning salmon
1985
10%
Endangered Species *illustrative only
6%
5%
3%
5%
6%
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
Help us save wild salmon before it’s too late The Missing Salmon Project is the Atlantic Salmon Trust’s campaign to raise £1million to fund critically important projects that will tag and track wild salmon on a scale never seen before in Europe.
What can you do to help?
• Make a donation, visit crowdfunder.co.uk/themissingsalmonproject. • Spread the word about
The Missing Salmon Project! Help us to raise awareness.
• Share our posts find our
We urgently need to find out what is happening to wild salmon on their journey out to sea so we can influence policy and develop measures to increase survival.
It’s easy for many to speculate on the cause of wild salmon’s decline, but unfounded speculation cannot and will not solve this problem. We need to carry out a thorough scientific study to find out what’s happening to wild salmon. Only then can we make real and accurate recommendations to help protect the species.
Facebook page at facebook.com/themissingsalmonproject
• Get in touch with us! If you have ideas or connections that could help support.
Email info@atlanticsalmontrust.org. We would love to hear from you.
The Missing Salmon Project seeks not only to raise money but to heighten awareness of the critical plight of one the nation’s most iconic species, research reasons why wild salmon are going missing and recommend steps that need to be taken to improve their chances of survival. It’s vital that we raise the funds needed.
Marine Scotland shares an interest in learning more about the factors affecting the movement and survival of salmon smolts and will continue to engage constructively in an advisory capacity through the Project Steering Committee.
Scottish Government Riaghaltas na h-Alba gov.scot
If you would like to see your logo here please contact: info@atlanticsalmontrust.org