ISSUES OUTLOOK 3% in the U.S. and 27% in China, also relative to the respective countries’ 2020 averages.
causing some friction, and freight rates going up there, too.
When compared to 2019 figures, U.S. exports in the first quarter of 2021 were flat relative to 2019, with imports up 7 percent. Imports and exports of services in the U.S. were both down, 14 and 18 percent respectively. China exported 25 percent more goods, imported 20 percent more goods than its 2019 average, and also exported 22 percent more services, with service imports down 23 percent.
Trade appears to be improving faster for developing countries than for developed countries. The UNCTD says developing countries saw exports rise 22% and imports rise 18%, while developed countries like the U.S., China, and Russia collectively saw exports climb about 7% and imports rise 12%. Developing countries in East Asia are performing particularly well.
An important factor in world trade is the availability, or lack of, containers. A year ago the container-shipping industry was struggling to stay afloat, as trade plunged from pandemic lockdowns. When demand picked up in the second half of the year and factories returned nearer to full production, thousands of containers were stranded in European and American ports rather than Asian ones, where they were needed. This shortage of empty containers at Asian ports has sent container-shipping costs through the roof. Since November 2020, the cost of a 40 foot container from Asia to Europe has more than tripled, North America to Asia has doubled. It should also be noted that trade in Europe, and the UK, have seen similar increases and difficulties, with the new UK-Europe “relationship”
The ongoing need and demand for goods and commodities, particularly metals and iron ore, augurs well for international trade in the short to medium term. One of the big problems over the past year has been the lengthening of vendors’ deliveries, and the availability and costs of raw materials. Trade may be peaking, but it’s difficult to tell at the moment, with the prices of steel, other metals, and commodities being to a large extent in the hands of China.
Author profile: Royce Lowe, Manufacturing Talk Radio, UK and EU International Correspondent, Contributing Writer, Manufacturing Outlook.
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Manufacturing Outlook / June 2021
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