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SEE TOP Industry Profiles

Mobile Telephony Fuels Telecoms Sector’s Growth By Valentin Stamov (SeeNews)

KEY TRENDS IN SEE TELECOMMUNICATIONS SECTOR IN 2009: • Growth of revenue in the telecommunications sector, which includes fixed and mobile telephony, and increase in the provision of internet services and cable television; • Drop in revenue and lower penetration of fixed-line telephony in most countries; • Growth of revenue and increase in mobile telephony penetration; • Rise in revenue and coverage of 3G services, growth of smartphone sales.

REVENUE The total revenue of the telecommunications sector in 2008 in Bulgaria, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia amounted to 8.667 billion euro, up 10.7% on the year. The revenue from mobile telephony was 5.289 billion euro, accounting for 61% of the sector’s total, while fixed telephony contributed 31.8% to the total revenue with sales of 2.755 billion euro. Data for 2009 was available for Moldova and Serbia only. The 12.8% annual drop in fixed-line telephony revenue in Moldova entailed a 1.7% fall in the total revenue of the telecommunications sector. Fixed-line telephony revenue was 5.630 billion Moldovan lei (319 million euro*), while mobile telephony revenue totalled 3.034 billion lei (172 million euro) in 2009, up 4.1% year-on-year. In 2009 the total revenue of Serbia’s telecommunication sector amounted to 1.510 billion euro (4.8% of the country’s gross domestic product, GDP), compared to 1.610 billion euro (4.9% of GDP) in 2008. However, the average annual growth of telecommunications in the period from 2005 to 2009 was 13%, which makes it one of the most profitable sectors of the national economy. In 2009 the share of mobile telephony revenue in the total telecommunications revenue fell to 54.8% from 61% a year earlier, while the share of fixed-line revenue rose to 29% from 25%. In Albania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Montenegro, * Editor’s note: The exchange rate used in the conversion is for the end of respective period.

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Electronic communications sector revenue growth and share in GDP by country in 2008 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%

Ser S Ro Mo Mo B C M B K Al b ma b ia l oven n l ani o sni a ulg ar r oatia o sovo ac ed nia o ni do va tene g ia a ia a ro Y/Y change

% of GDP

Mobile

Fixed

Internet

Cable television

Source: European Commission - 15th Progress Report on the Single European Electronic Communications Market; Countries’ telecoms regulators (CRC; ANRCETI; EKIP; RATEL); Cullen International - Enlargement Countries Monitoring Report III

Romania, Serbia and Slovenia the total revenue of the telecommunications sector accounted for between 3.3% and 9.9% of the countries’ GDP for 2008. The share of telecommunications revenue as a percentage of GDP was highest in Montenegro, 9.9% and in Moldova, 9.1%.

FIXED-LINE TELEPHONY In 2009 the growth in the number of fixedline subscribers slowed down due to the widespread use of mobile phones and VoIP services provided by software applications such as Skype, Google Talk and Jutvoip. The steady rise in the use of IP telephony can be attributed to the advantages that such technology offers – lower monthly calls costs and subscriber fees, and the option for integration of new technologies and combination with other electronic communications services. This rapid growth is expected to persist, with IP telephony replacing the traditional fixed telephone services in the future. This evolution is best observed in Slovenia. In the beginning of 2009 more than 232,840 such connections were established, up 91.2% year-on-year and a nearly fourfold rise compared to the beginning of 2007. Although the market share of the incumbent fixed line operators in terms of both value

and volume continued to shrink in 2008 and 2009, they still dominate the fixed telephony market in all SEE countries and their market share is much higher than the average for the EU-27 countries. In terms of total revenue from fixed-line calls, the average market share of the incumbent operators in Bulgaria, Macedonia, Moldova and Serbia was 96% for 2008, while the average EU level was 70.2%. Only in Croatia the market share, by revenue and by minutes of traffic, of the alternative operators exceeded 20% in 2009. In July 2009 the fixed-line telephony penetration rate in the EU-27 countries stood at 40%. In the whole SEE region there are considerable variations in the levels of fixed line telephony penetration, with Albania and Kosovo at relatively low levels and Croatia and Serbia at levels comparable to the EU-27 average. The fixed broadband penetration rate in the SEE countries lags behind the EU-27 average. It was highest in Slovenia, at 22.9% as of January 2010, and in Croatia, at 13.44% as of July 2009. In Romania and Bulgaria the penetration rate was 12.30% and 11.90%, respectively. In January 2010 the EU-27 fixed broadband penetration rate was 24.80%.

MOBILE TELEPHONY Mobile telephony remains the driver of the


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3G MOBILE SERVICES Growing 3G penetration boosted mobile internet revenue but 3G services still account for only a small share of the total revenue of the mobile telephony operators. The revenue from mobile internet in Bulgaria for 2008 made only 1.0% of the local sector’s total revenue, while for the EU-27 the average rate was 4.0%. The 3G mobile services are pushing up handset sales and data transfer revenue of telecom operators across Southeastern Europe as the region aims to catch up with Western Europe where the smartphone penetration rate is already at around 18%, according to an analysis published by SeeNews in July 2010. In Croatia smartphones already account for a third of the handsets sold by the country’s iPhone carrier Hrvatski Telekom (T-HT). Vipnet, another wireless carrier in Croatia, also said it sees constant growth in smartphone sales.

Number of Fixed Telephone Lines (in millions) 5 4 3 2 1 0

2009 Romania Croatia

2008

Serbia Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bulgaria Slovenia

Macedonia Montenegro

Albania

Source: International Telecommunication Union (ITU)

Market share in %

Market Shares of Incumbent Fixed-line Operators in Some SEE Countries (in terms of subscribers) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

2008 Bulgaria

C roatia

2007 Moldova

Montenegro

Romania

Serbia

Slovenia

Source: CRC; HAKOM; ANRCETI; EKIP; ANCOM; RATEL; APEK

Mobile Telephony Penetration Rate in SEE 140 120

Penetration (%)

telecommunications market in the EU and SEE countries. In 2009 the average mobile penetration in SEE was 111%, still below the EU-27 average of 127%. However, mobile penetration continued to grow in all SEE countries except Macedonia, reaching and sometimes exceeding the EU-27 level. At the head were Bulgaria, with a penetration rate of 141%, Croatia with 137% and Albania with 132%. The growth of mobile penetration was accompanied by intensified competition and falling retail prices. Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo saw a significant drop of retail mobile prices. However, especially in Bulgaria, consumer prices for calls between different mobile networks (off-net) are still significantly higher than prices for calls within a single network (on-net) thus forcing consumers to hold more than one mobile subscription. Regarding mobile number portability, Kosovo, Albania, Montenegro, Serbia and Moldova failed to introduce the service in 2009. In Serbia mobile number portability will be introduced in January 2011. The growth of the mobile broadband continued with 3G mobile services now available in most SEE countries. Dedicated mobile data cards in Croatia achieved 4.5% penetration, surpassing the EU-27 average of 4.2%. However, in terms of 3G penetration, the level in Eastern and Southeastern Europe of 15.1% was considerably lower than in the Western European countries, where it reached 37.6% in 2009.

100 80 60 40 20 0

2009

2008

Bulgaria

C roatia

Albania

Serbia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Montenegro

Romania

Slovenia

Macedonia

Moldova

In Macedonia smartphones made up 3.0% of mobile handset sales at mobile telephony operator T-Mobile, the iPhone carrier on the local market. The company expects the sales of smartphones to rise thanks to the new types of operating system installed in the phones and new services to be offered. With Bulgarian mobile carrier GLOBUL smartphone users account for around 13% of the customers and their share continues to grow. Although voice services continue to be the dominant segment of mobile communications, the use of data transfer

Source: ITU

services by GLOBUL subscribers has seen three-digit growth since 2007. Smartphones as of July 2010 made up 15-16% of the handset sales of Bulgaria’s incumbent telecommunications company Vivacom, which provides both fixed-line and mobile services. The smartphone penetration rate in Bulgaria was 4.0% in 2009, significantly below the global average of 18%, according to LG Electronics Bulgaria. The low penetration rate gives the segment an opportunity for strong growth in the future. LG Electronics Bulgaria expects that smartphone sales in SEE TOP Industry Profiles

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SEE TOP Industry Profiles the country will jump several times, perhaps reaching 10% of the total market in 2010.

INVESTMENTS, MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS A total of 1.648 billion euro were invested in the telecommunications sector in Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia in 2008, down by 2.7% on the year. In Romania and Slovenia the investments in the sector as a portion of the countries’ GDP stood at 0.7%, while in Bulgaria they accounted for 1.2% of the GDP for 2008. Slovenia was third, Bulgaria fourth and Romania ranked sixth in the EU in terms of investment over revenues ratio with 22.5%, 22.3% and 21.2%, respectively.

The EU average stood at 14%.

The SEE region saw several acquisitions and three mergers in 2009. The most active player was Greek mobile phone operator Cosmote SA, which took part in three acquisition deals.

Bulgarian Telecommunications Company AD (BTC), which now operates under the brand Vivacom. A similar process happened in Croatia where the incumbent telecom HT–Hrvatske Telekomunikacije d.d. merged with its mobile telephony subsidiary T-Mobile Hrvatska d.o.o. Following the merger, it changed its name to Hrvatski Telekom d.d.

Major mergers in the SEE telecommunications sector took place in Bulgaria, Croatia and Macedonia. In Bulgaria and Croatia the mobile arms of the countries’ incumbent telecom companies merged with their other operations - BTC Mobile EOOD (operating under the brand Vivatel) merged with

In Macedonia, Slovenia’s telecommunication company Telekom Slovenije d.d. acquired Cosmofon DOO, the Macedonian wireless unit of Greek Cosmote SA. Later the Slovenian company merged Cosmofon and Macedonian internet and fixed-line operator On.net into ONE Operator DOO.

In Moldova investments in telecommunications amounted to 1.750 billion Moldovan lei (99.3 million euro), down 10.9% on the year in 2009.

Major Acquisitions in SEE Telecommunications Sector in 2009 Target AMC (mobile phone operator)

Country

Buyer

Albania

Cosmote SA (Greece)

Orbitel AD (telecoms and internet service provider) M Svyat (mobile phone retail chain)

Cosmofon AD (mobile phone operator) Germanos Telekom AD (mobile phone retail chain)

Deal size/Details

N/A

a 12.6% stake for EUR 48.2 mln.

Magyar Telekom Nyrt (Hungary)

EUR 5.0 mln

Mobiltel EAD - M-Tel (Bulgaria)

N/A

20 stores countrywide and M Svyat brand

BTC AD - Vivacom

N/A

112 stores countrywide

Spectrum Net AD (Bulgaria) Bulgaria

2be (mobile phone retail chain) Tis.kis (IT company)

Vendor

Croatia

Kapsch CarrierCom AG (Austria)

TIS Grupa d.o.o. (Croatia)

a 68% stake

Macedonia

Telekom Slovenije d.d. (Slovenia)

Cosmote SA (Greece)

a 100% stake for EUR 190 mln

Saudi Oger Ltd (Saudi Arabia)

a 100% stake for EUR 207 mln

Liberty Global Inc (USA)

N/A

Telemobil SA - Zapp brand (mobile phone operator)

Romania

Cosmote SA (Greece)

UPC Slovenia (cable and broadband operator)

Slovenia

Mid Europa Partners LLP (UK)

Source: SeeNews

“Communication breakdown?” - Telecoms in Southeastern Europe Telecom companies are almost back in the normal world. With EBITDA still at very high levels, above 35 %, the pain is bearable, but growth rates are in the lower digits. Voice is a commodity, like electricity and water, and with a stagnating market, prices are likely to drop fast. Mobile, the growth motor, has suffered from the crisis and the resulting lower level of activity. The habit of having multiple SIM cards, enabled by the focus on pre-paid, has led to an average of more than 2 SIM cards per inhabitant in some smaller SEE countries, now resulting in high churn rates. The legal requirement of registration of pre-paid customers will further reduce the number of cards. The consumers should be alert and flexible, as prices will go down rapidly. The battle for market share will become more fierce and the high EBITDA will allow the telcos to go down quite a bit. With price sensitive markets they will have to, otherwise new entrants with ‘discount’ formats will enter quickly. The existing telcos will therefore most likely offer new discount brands themselves, as we have seen in Western Europe. The main challenge for telcos is finding new ways to grow. In the traditional markets they can only grow by stealing market share leading most certainly to a price war and lower margins. New fields to explore are the small & medium enterprises and small & home offices. New services will be developed to serve these segments better and to compete with existing ICT boutiques. Much attention will go to the market launch of new services, using the mobile advantage to fulfil consumer needs on the spot. Mobile payment, shopping recommendations and support, insurance services and of course entertainment, with games and gambling, must increase the usage by the consumer, keeping consumers on-line while on the road. Compensating the lower unit prices by selling more units will be the challenge for the coming years.

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Mobile Telephony Fuels Telecoms Sector’s Growth