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AFRICA MACRO

ANALYSIS AND STRATEGY

Tunisia The Arab Spring began in Tunisia and it was the first Arab country to oust its long-time dictatorial ruler. As is the case in Egypt and Libya, which were also caught up in the whirlwind of the Arab Spring and managed to depose long serving strong men, there is much confusion and uncertainty over the economic and political outlook. Concerns exist among the urban educated secular elite and Tunisia’s western allies that Islamists parties may gain the upper hand in elections. Nahda, the moderate Islamic Party, captured 41.7% of the vote, the largest total of any of the parties running in the October 23 elections for the Constituent Assembly which will be tasked with the responsibility of writing a new constitution. After the elections, it was quick to dispel suspicions that it has an Islamic agenda. It also reassured women that their rights will be protected and indicated that it strongly supports free-market economic principles. A vague target of having an elected parliament and government in place by the end of 2012 has been set. The revolution has sapped the strength of the economy which is at a standstill. Unemployment is expected to climb to 19% by the end of the year, tourist receipts have fallen sharply, investment activity has dropped and strikes have spread throughout the industrial sector. Tunisia is not a major oil producer. Oil output in 2010 was just 83,724 barrels a day. Since it could not rely on its petroleum sector to drive the economy, Tunisia has developed a manufacturing base. In 2009 for example, machinery and transportation equipment accounted for 25.1% of exports, apparel and clothing accessories had a 21.6% share and electrical machinery was 15.3%. As a result, Tunisia has an industrial base to build upon to spur its economy once political uncertainty diminishes. 2011 Population: 10,629,186 2011 % Change GDP: 0.01 2012 % Change GDP: 3.9 2011 GDP (Billions USD): 48.932 2012 GDP (Billions USD): 52.239 2011 GDP Per Capita (USD): 4,593 2012 GDP Per Capita (USD): 4,852 2011 Inflation: Avg. Consumer Price Change (%): 3.5 2012 Inflation: Avg. Consumer Price Change (%): 4.0 2011 Current Account Balance (% of GDP): -5.7 2012 Current Account Balance (% of GDP): -5.5 Source: IMF, all 2012 data are forecasts Joab’s Technologies and Research, Natu Court Flat B.

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Equity Research in Africa, Like an Electric Train Africa is picking up, a True Emerging Market  

Economic analysis of Africa as a whole, as well as of particular countries and sectors, with special regard to their potential as investment...

Equity Research in Africa, Like an Electric Train Africa is picking up, a True Emerging Market  

Economic analysis of Africa as a whole, as well as of particular countries and sectors, with special regard to their potential as investment...

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