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AFRICA MACRO

ANALYSIS AND STRATEGY

Egypt

2011 Population: 82,079,636 2011 % Change GDP: 1.2 2012 % Change GDP: 1.8

Egypt is in the midst of political and economic turmoil as it tries to navigate a path to democracy following the overthrow of the 30 year rule of Hosni Mubarak. It has been anything but a smooth transition. The military took over following the ousting of Mubarak and promised to quickly turn power over to the people. They, however, have backtracked on that promise and appear to be settling into power. Protests are being broken up and abuse of detainees is widespread as it was under the Mubarak regime. Elections are likely to see gains for the Moslem Brotherhood, which will upset Egypt’s western allies and the urban secular elite. The economy meanwhile is crumbling. The stock market has faltered badly, investment is drying up, tourism is down, the budget deficit is about 8.6% of GDP, construction activity is declining and foreign exchange reserves are dwindling. Strikes are spreading as workers demand higher wages and the ouster of unpopular bosses. The military shows no signs of implementing needed economic reforms such as cutting food subsidies that bloat the budget deficit. Unemployment has risen to 12.2% from 9.0% in 2010 and is particularly pronounced among the young. It will be a while before the dust settles in Egypt and it becomes apparent what the new political and economic landscape will look like. In the meantime there is likely to be a great deal of political and economic turbulence.

2011 GDP (Billions USD): 231.890 2012 GDP (Billions USD): 252.777 2011 GDP Per Capita (USD): 2,922 2012 GDP Per Capita (USD): 3,123 2011 Inflation: Avg. Consumer Price Change (%): 11.1 2012 Inflation: Avg. Consumer Price Change (%): 11.3 2011 Current Account Balance (% of GDP): -1.9 2012 Current Account Balance (% of GDP): -2.2 Source: IMF, all 2012 data are forecasts

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Equity Research in Africa, Like an Electric Train Africa is picking up, a True Emerging Market  

Economic analysis of Africa as a whole, as well as of particular countries and sectors, with special regard to their potential as investment...

Equity Research in Africa, Like an Electric Train Africa is picking up, a True Emerging Market  

Economic analysis of Africa as a whole, as well as of particular countries and sectors, with special regard to their potential as investment...

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