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Climat and the swedish energy system

Anders Nylander Arkitekt and energy expert some of my former experiences

PEPESEC - project meeting Malmö 2008-04-11

Chalmers University of Technology Senior project manager of Biogas Syd, Former Secretary in the Commission on oil independence at the Prime Minister's Office Former Secretary of DESS Kommissionen mot oljeberoendet

DESS The Delegation of Energysuply in South Sweden

carbon dioxide (tC/capita), 1998

Global carbon dioxide

6.00 USA

GtC/year

5.00 tonnes of carbon per capita

7 6 5

U-länder 4

Forna sovjetblocket

3

Canada, Australia, New Zealand 4.00 Russia Japan

3.00

OECD Europe Other EIT Middle East

2.00

China

1.00

2

OECD

1

0 0 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Lack of fossil fuels will not solve the problem 6000 Coal

Resources Reserves Cumulative CO2-targets

2,000

Africa

3,000 4,000 Population (million)

India 5,000

6,000

2000

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and the air temperature in Antarctic the latest 400000 year from ”the Vostok Ice Core” Core”

5000

Year 2100: c:a 700 ppm

4000

År 2004:

0

550 ppm

450 ppm

377 ppm

350 ppm

Non-conventional natural gas

1000

Natural gas

2000

Non-conventional oil

3000

Oil

Billion tons of carbon (GtC)

1,000

Latin America Other Asia

Källa: www.ipcc.ch

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Possible future CO2-emissions

Torpshammar in Sweden July 2000

Flooding, Assam, India, July 2004

After the storm on January 8, 2005

Sorce: Met Office

2008-04-15

2008-04-15

Summer 2003

2


2008-04-15

a hundred years is a short period

millions of climate workers ???

EU energy politics three pillars

The EU:s "20-20-20-2020" targets

• Inre marknad el och gas • Överföringsförbindelser

Konkurrenskraft

(Trans-Europeiska Nätverk)

• FoU alternativa teknologier

ƒ 20% less CO2 emissions

Fullt integrerad, integrerad,

ƒ 20% energy use

balanserad och

Miljömässig hållbarhet

ömsesidigt förstärkande energipolitik

ƒ 20% renewable energy

Försörjningstrygghet •Förnybar energi • Energieffektivisering •FoU alternativa teknologier • Utsläppshandel

• Internationell dialog • Beredskapslager olja och gas • Diversifiering tillförsel och energikällor

17

3


CO2 emissions per BNP and per inhabitant

EU:s klimatmål: -20% jämfört med 1990 -14% jämfört med 2005 Handlande sektor -21% jämfört med 2005

Icke-handlande sektor -10% jämfört med 2005

27 medlemsstater, spännvidd -20% -- +20% Regler för övergång från -20% till -30% för EU finns för/om en internationell reviderad överenskommelse

20% FÖRNYBAR ENERGI 2020..

EU:s ansvarsfördelning - BNP per capita

Från 8 % 2005 till 20 % 2020

Reduction targets Non-ETS compared to 2005

25% 20%

Vad krävs av utveckling fram till 2020 (~1700 TWh / 146 mtoe)

20%: BG 19%:RO 17%: LV 15%: LT 14%: PL 13%: SK 11%: EE 10%: HU 9%: CZ

15% 10% 5%

5%: MA 4%: SL 1%: PT

0% 0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

-4%: EL -5%: CY

-5% -10%

30.0

35.0

40.0

-10%: ES -13%: IT -14%: DE, FR -14%: BE -16%: AT, FI, UK, NL -17%: SE

-15% -20%

-20%: DK, IE, LU

-25% GDP/Cap (000 €)

Käla: EU Komissionen

Is the target a new balance? Den nya energi

Den nya energi

användningen

tillförseln

>20% effektivare användning

100% uthållig energi

Bridging Systems and tecnologis Nuvarande

Nuvarande

användning

tillförsel

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Why should we reduce the dependence on oil?

The Commission on Oil Independence Anders Nylander anders.nylander@nylan.se +46 709 71 99 49

Statsrådsberedningen

1. We reduce Sweden’s impact on the environment. 2. We secure Sweden’s long-term energy supply. 3. We can set a positive example by developing new technology for sustainable and efficient energy use. 4. We will strengthen our international economical competitiveness. 5. We use and develop the energy resources from forests and fields, ”Sweden’s green gold”.

Statsrådsberedningen

Statistics of found oil fields from 1900

The Oil Triangle

Qatar

Kjell Aleklett

millions of barrels per day

The oil demand world wide

Within the Oil Triangle you can find roughly 60 percent of the remaining oil reserves in the world. The 2001 Cheney report, US Energy Policy, says that in year 2020 around 54 to 67 percent of the world production of oil needs to come from the Oil Triangle. Kjell Aleklett

Energy system boarders (economy, technology and market)

Oil consumption 25 20 USA China India EU15

15 10 5 0 1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

year

Statsrådsberedningen

5


How can we reduce the use of oil?

Energy supply in Sweden 2004 Total energy supplied in Sweden 2004

There are three possibilities of principle:

Crude oil, oil products

Coal, coke

• Increased efficiency in the energy generating processes and supply systems

9

Natural gas, town gas, propane, butane Nuclear fuel

• Fuel substitution

Heat pumps in distr. heating

110

Hydroelectric power Wind power

149

78

6

Biofuels, peat, etc.

• More efficient end use of energy

70

137

30

60

1

0

50

100

150

200

250

TWh

Statsrådsberedningen

Statsrådsberedningen

How much oil do we use in Sweden today?

How are we going to reduce the use of oil?

End-use energy distributed among sectors in Sweden 2004

• We will use the energy in a more efficient way.

Domestic transport

Housing, service, etc.

• We will invest in renewable fuels from forests and fields.

Industry

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

TWh

Biofuel, peat, etc

Ethanol Distr. heating El.

natural gas, town gas, propane, butane Coal, coke oils

Statsrådsberedningen

Statsrådsberedningen

Etot = n × V × E spec

Which main goals are suggested for 2020 by the Commission? • Sweden’s energy use should be reduced by 20%. • The use of petrol and diesel in road transports should be lowered by 40-50 %. • No use of oil for heating of houses and premises. • 25-40 % less use of oil in the industry.

Chalmers University of Technology

Variations in energy-use related to “life style” factors

Etot = n × V × E spec • Etot total energy consumed (electricity, heat or cooling) • n and V are life-style factors – n is number of appliances – V is amount consumed (e.g. indoor temperature, amount of tap water)

• Espec is specific energy used (defined by technology) Statsrådsberedningen

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Belysning i korridorer CSK, Kristianstad

CONCENTRATION OF EFFORTS ON FUELS FROM SWEDISH FORESTS AND FEILDS Avd 43

Mottagning

3 100 kWh/år

13 000 kWh/år

2 W/m2

2 200 kr/år

17 W/m2

9 000 kr/år

Statsrådsberedningen

Changes of fuel mix in district heating systems in Sweden Fuel mix 1981

Cultural heritage

Waste heat 3% Waste material 5%

Olja 7%

Coal 3%

Food

Fuel mix 2001 Wood chips 2% Other 3% Kol 2%

Other 5%

Wood fuels 28%

Natural gas 6%

Eco-system services

Electricity 3% Pine oil(Tallbeckolja) 3%

Heat pump 14%

Oil 84%

Peat 5%

Hot water 9%

Waste material 11%

Waste heat 9%

Heat delivery 27 TWh

Fibers

Biological multitude

Bio gas 1%

Heat delivery ≈ 46,5 TWh

Källa: Svensk Fjärrvärme

Recreation

Chalmers University of Technology

TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE BUILDINGS: A SURVEY ON POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENTS OF THE EXISTING BUILDING STOCK Anders Nylander, Filip Johnsson Department of Energy and Environment Chalmers University of Technology SE 412 96 Göteborg CIBW70 2006 Trondheim International Symposium, Changing User Demands on Buildings, Trondheim, June 12 – 14

Chalmers University of Technology

Aim of this work • to identify and systemize potentials for increased energy efficiency and substitution of fuel and heating systems in the existing building stock • to group potentials with respect to influencing factors, including operational and life-style factors • to discuss on policy measures to use some of the potentials identified in this work

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Chalmers University of Technology

Building sector – CO2 reduction strategies • increase energy efficiency • substitute fuels • reduce demand. investments in the power and heat generation side are mainly governed by business logics and related to public economy, investments in the demand side belong to the private household economy (residential buildings) - dependent on consumer preferences and consumer behaviour etc

Chalmers University of Technology

Previous work and experiences • Majority of works in literature addressing energy efficiency in buildings are related to technical measures, but… • also the way building owners operate and manage their buildings (“life-style” factors) can significantly influence the energy performance of a building • improvement in energy efficiency based on operational measures should constitute a low cost (or no-regret) option compared to technical measures

Chalmers University of Technology

Chalmers University of Technology

Transforming the energy system for buildings - some difficulties • Consumer preferences and consumer behavior – investments in energy efficiency measures compared to spending on other goods which gives more immediate and direct satisfaction

Method

• Difficult for consumers to coordinate goals and interpret information from governmental boards and markets with respect to strategies for development of buildings and heating market

Chalmers University of Technology

Southern Sweden

Chalmers University of Technology

Method • The analysis is based on a combination of field experiences with database analysis on energy use in the building sector. • The variations in energy use identified in case studies and by measurements are applied to the housing stock of the database, thereby providing estimates on the total impact of the variations identified.

8


Chalmers University of Technology

Example field experience hospital

Savings 28 % heat 10% electricity

Chalmers University of Technology

Method - include capital stock and take local conditions into account • The energy infrastructure – the buildings with heating systems (e.g. age structure, geographical variations, heat density) provided by a database (Southern Sweden) • The database gives a detailed description of the energy infrastructure of the region (> 50 000 items) • The region studied is large enough for the results to be assumed representative for Sweden as a whole

Region Skåne & tac

Etot = n × V × E spec

Chalmers University of Technology

Chalmers University of Technology

Variations in energy-use related to “life style” factors

Etot = n × V × E spec • Etot total energy consumed (electricity, heat or cooling) • n and V are life-style factors

Ref, Nässén & Holmerg CTH 2005

– n is number of appliances – V is amount consumed (e.g. indoor temperature, amount of tap water)

• Espec is specific energy used (defined by technology)

Chalmers University of Technology

Chalmers University of Technology

Grouping of the reductions potentials 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Change in life style – simple (mainly n and V) Increased efficiency in operation of house Technical measures – simple (mainly Espec) Technical measures – extensive (mainly Espec) Measures on overall energy system (mainly Espec system factors) Change in life style – extensive (mainly n och V)

Results - examples

9


Chalmers University of Technology

energy use varies with a factor of around 2.5!

250 200

Espec

150

2

• Large potential for reducing electricity for heating • Current trend on the heating market does not seem to be in line with this goal, but rather exhibiting a slight increase in electricity for heating. • Based on an analysis of the database used in this paper, Johansson et al (2006) propose a strategy to replace the heating systems which results in a 47% reduction in primary energy use for heating with a 34% decrease in heat demand and a reduction of CO2 with 77%

Chalmers University of Technology

Variation in energy use (heating and lighting) in 64 almost identical residential buildings (single-family houses) in the village “Stångby” in Southern Sweden [V]

kWh/m ,year

Energy infrastructure – trends in replacement of heating systems

100 50 0

64 identical single-family houses

Type 5

Type 1 & 2

Chalmers University of Technology

Potentials for reduction in heat demand in all single-family and twofamily houses as obtained from applying lower quartile of data in previous slide to the database of Southern Sweden [V]

Chalmers University of Technology

Example : Reduction in heat demand. From replacement of 2 glass windows with high performance 3 glass windows (single and two-family houses of Southern Sweden) [Espec ]

180

140 GWh/year

120

Σ 4.2 TWh potential for energy conservation (total heat demand is 10 TWh)

5 4 GWh/year

160

100 80 60

3 2 1

40

0

20

The 67 municipalities of Southern Sweden

0 The 67 municipalities of Southern Sweden

Type 1 & 2

Chalmers University of Technology

Major potentials calculated in this work based on the field studies applied to the database of Southern Sweden. ResidentialSingle houses and two-family buildings Apartment blocks CURRENT ENERGY USE Total heat demand (Etot net) Total heat demand (Etot net) Electricity for household services (Etot net) Electricity for household services and for common purpose (Etot net) CHANGES IN ENERGY USE CHANGE IN LIFE STYLE - SIMPLE (n, V) airing indoor temperature tap water INCREASED EFFICIENCY IN OPERATION (n, V) Reduced airing in empty flats Improved control systems for local heaters (single and two-family houses) Improved control systems for central heating (single and two-family TECHNICAL MEASURES - SIMPLE (Espec) Energy efficient water taps (single and two-family houses) Replacing water heaters (single and two-family houses) Replacement of piping Reduced air in eakage Removal of cold spots Installations of sun panels (single and two-family houses) TECHNICAL MEASURES - EXTENSIVE (Espec) Replacement of windows (low cost option in single and two-family houses) Replacement of windows (in 75% of building stock) Heat exchanging of incoming air, low cost options Heat exchanging of incoming air Additional insulation attics (single and two-family houses) Additional insulation facades (single and two-family houses) MEASURES ON ENERGY SYSTEM (Espec, regional) Fuel substitution according to energy system optimization CHANGE IN LIFE STYLE - EXTENSIVE (n, V) Reduced floor area (=floor area of "best performing" municipality Net heat demand equal to "best performing" municipality 0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

Type 4

Chalmers University of Technology

Summary from applying field experiences to database of energy infrastructure of Southern Sweden • Mapping of a number of life-style factors yields large potential for increased energy efficiency • Low, or no cost, options • Problem to create incentives/policy measures to realize potentials

12 000

GWh

10


Chalmers University of Technology

Discussion on policy measures Type of measure

Example of measure

Requirements/policy

1

Change in life style simple (mainly n and V)

Life style influences energy use from e.g. choice of indoor temperature, airing habits, consumption of hot water and electricity

2

Increased efficiency in operation of house

To use the technical systems/appliances in a more efficient way

3

Technical measures simple (mainly Espec)

Sealing of window, adjustment of heat distribution system, water saving appliances (e.g. WC), sun protection etc.

Technical measures extensive (mainly Espec)

Improved thermal insulation, window replacement, upgrading of ventilation system, replacement of pumps etc.

Measures on overall energy system (mainly Espec system factors) Change in life style extensive (mainly n och V)

Matching supply and demand side and to take regional differences into account to reduce primary energy use

Information and feed back, cost of energy (heat and electricity) based on hourly measurement of consumption Efficient and well educated tenant/management organization of building. Efficient and well educated tenant/management organization of building. Easily accessible investment budget Economic incentives, knowledge, to take advantage of opportunities during renovations Efficient and clear governmental and regional planning and clear and long term policy measures Information and long term changes in perceptions on global influence from energy use

4 5 6

To reduce space for living, less travelling etc.

Chalmers University of Technology

Conclusions - I • Significant potential for increase in energy efficiency in the building sector of the region studied (and thereby for Sweden as a whole). • Possibilities to increase energy efficiency are not only related to technical factors but also to what is here call life-style factors – the ways buildings are operated and managed.

Why biogas in Skåne? ƒ It is a good tool in the Regional Development Program. ƒ It is good for the agricultural sector ƒ We have biogas research of high international class.

A Cooperation Project in South Sweden

ƒ We have several biogas technology companies here. ƒ We have users like Skånetrafiken (public transportations) ƒ There is a growing market for biogas

for the environment and employment

The Biogas puzzel några av våra deltagare

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www.volvocar.com BIOGAS BÄST!

Well-to-wheel-resultat Conventional gasoline

Fuels 2010

Conventional diesel RME: Gly as chemical RME: Gly as animal feed

400

Syn-diesel: CTL Syn-diesel: GTL

CTL

Syn-diesel: Farmed wood

300

Syn -diesel: Waste wood, Black liqour

WTWGHGemissions (g CO2 eqv / 100 km)

DME: CTL DME: GTL

200

DME: Farmed wood

GTL-Syndiesel Gasoline and diesel

DME: Waste wood, Black liqour

GTL-DME

100

Gasification Black Liquor Gasification

Ethanol (pure)

EtOH: Wheat, Straw CHP, DDGS as AF

RME

EtOH: Sugar cane (Brazil) EtOH: Wheat, Straw CHP, DDGS as fuel EtOH: Farmed wood

0 0

100

200

300

400

500

EtOH: Wheat straw

600

EtOH, Wheat, Lignite CHP, DDGS as AF EtOH, Wheat, Lignite CHP, DDGS as fuel

-100

EtOH, Wheat, NG GT+CHP, DDGS as AF EtOH, Wheat, NG GT+CHP, DDGS as fuel Biogas, municipal waste

Biogas, liquid manure

-200

Biogas, liquid manure

Total WTW energy (MJ / 100 km)

Biogas, dry manure

(Källa: Patrik Klintbom med data från Eucar/Concawe/JRC 2005)

Regionbiogasbuss

Bussbränsleutvecklingen

En metafor för Skånes energiomstälningsstrategi

18

E

16

D

Milj lit/milj Nm3

14

1

C

12 Diesel, milj liter

10

1

B transporter

Naturgas, milj Nm3 8

2

Biogas, milj Nm3

2

industri

4

A tillförsel visioner

6

4

tillförsel 5

4

bost o service

2 6 3

0 1996

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

3

6

5

Cirklarna från centrum A. Skånes omställningsvision B. Möjliga åtgärdsområden C. Skånes strategiska val 1. effektivisering Tr 2. effektivisering Ind 3. effektivisering BoS 4. biogas 5. vindkraft 6. sol D. Skånska åtgärder, exempel på nya och pågående E. Nationella och internationella åtgärder och system som stödjer en positiv utveckling

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Klimatberedningen

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