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Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH Research Highlights: A weekly market commentary

Real Estate Market Commentary 15-Jul-12 to 21-Jul-12

Contents Market Commentary Charts to Note Activity Monitor:  Dubai,  Kuwait,  Riyadh - KSA,  Dammam – KSA  Qatar Markaz Research is available on: Bloomberg - Type “MRKZ” <Go> Thomson Research, Reuters Knowledge ReutersRealEstate.com Nooz Zawya Investor ISI Emerging markets

Thomas K. Mathew Senior Research Analyst +965 2224 8051 tmathew@markaz.com Venkat Ramadoss ACA, CFA Manager +965 2224 8548 rvenkateshwaran@markaz.com Bassam N. Al-Othman Executive Vice President +965 2224 8011 bothman@markaz.com

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait Tel: +965 2224 8000 Fax: +965 2242 5828 markaz.com

Dubai: According to JLL’s Q2-12 report, rentals in the residential market were stable Q-o-Q. However, Asteco earlier reported an uptick in rentals for quality apartments and quality villas (up 6% and 9% Q-o-Q, respectively). On a Y-o-Y basis, JLL reported a c. 10% increment in rentals for apartments and villas each. In terms of sales prices, prime villa prices were reportedly up 21% Y-o-Y, while apartment prices remained flat, which compares to Asteco’s observation of price increases for villas and apartments. JLL anticipates rentals of prime residences, both villas & apartments to rise further in 2012. However, apartment rents at secondary locations are reportedly expected to continue their decline, while secondary villa rentals are to remain stable. They further expect prime apartment prices to remain flat, while prime villa prices are forecasted to continue their uptrend. These forecasts are broadly in line with Asteco’s outlook, with the exception of prime apartment rentals, where Asteco expects further increases. In the office market, JLL mentioned that CBD office vacancy rates were 35%, while secondary locations witnessed much higher vacancy rates. It was also highlighted that, CBD office spaces continued to witness stable rentals, but rentals for secondary locations and buildings continued their downtrend. JLL expects these rental trends to continue due to new supply and weak demand at secondary locations. It believes rising supply would put downward pressure on prices as well, contrary to Asteco’s belief that prices would remain stable due to low activity. Qatar: NAI Qatar, in its Q2-12 market overview, reported an uptrend in residential rentals on a Q-o-Q basis. Rentals reportedly rose for all sectors, except 1 & 3BR unfurnished apartments, while Asteco earlier had reported average Q-o-Q growth of 3.5% & 4.0% for apartments and villas respectively. Further, NAI Qatar anticipates rental growth for both furnished & unfurnished residential units in Q3-12. Separately, Asteco predicted limited growth in rentals in the residential market, but an uptick in rentals for high quality villas. In the office market, NAI Qatar shared Asteco’s view of stability in rentals on Q-o-Q basis, with Grade A rentals up marginally by 0.78% due to significant growth in rentals in the West Bay area (+5.4%), while Grade B rentals were down slightly by 0.21%. Office rentals are reportedly expected to decline marginally in Q3-12. Bahrain: Knight Frank, in its latest office market update, highlighted a downtrend in rentals, but mentioned that prime monthly rentals showed signs of stability at BD9/Sqm, broadly in line with CBRE’s findings Q-o-Q. Also, the demand for quality smaller units is reportedly strong as they are more affordable for tenants, while vacancy rates are rising due to new supply and poor quality of older buildings. Knight Frank expects the new supply stock to put a downward pressure on rentals. Egypt: According to the Central Bank of Egypt’s latest monthly release, overall prices declined 0.6% M-o-M in Jun-12, whereas housing rentals and utility prices remained unchanged. On the other hand, overall inflation was 7.3% Y-o-Y, down from 8.3% in May-12 and 8.8% in Apr12. However, inflation in the housing component stood at 7.2%, unchanged from the previous month.

Developments sourced from various sources including news portals like Gulfbase, Zawya, Reuters, Bloomberg, Trade Arabia, Business 24/7, Arabian Business, The Peninsula, Gulf News, Property Wire, Khaleej Times, Saudi Gazette, KUNA etc and also from published reports of real estate brokers and investment research houses.


MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH Charts to note Chart 1: Dubai Residential Supply – 2012 and 2013

Source: JLL Dubai report, Q2-12, Asteco Dubai report, H1-12, Markaz Analysis

Chart 2: Dubai Office Supply – 2012 and 2013

Source: JLL Dubai report, Q2-12, Asteco Dubai report, H1-12, Markaz Analysis

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”

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MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH Chart 3: Expected Future Residential Supply – Dubai

Source: JLL Dubai report, Q1-12 and Q2-12, Markaz Analysis

Chart 4: Expected Future Office Supply – Dubai

Source: JLL Dubai report, Q1-12 and Q2-12, Markaz Analysis

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”

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MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

Rents (QR/month)

Chart 5: Qatar – Change in residential rentals (furnished) – 2009-12  - Correction from peak  - Recovery from trough

20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

 - 27.6%  - 7.7%

Villa

 - 28.1%  - 4.5%

3 BHK

 - 19.1%  - 6.2%

2 BHK

1 BHK

Q1-09

Q2-09

Q3-09

Q4-09

Q1-10

Q2-10

Q3-10

Q4-10

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

Source: NAI Qatar reports, Markaz Analysis

Rents (QR/month)

Chart 6: Qatar – Change in residential rentals (unfurnished) – 2009-12 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

 - Correction from peak  - Recovery from trough

 - 31.7%  - 0.7%  - 41.8%  - 6.1%

Villa

3 BHK

 - 41.8%  - 4.8%

2 BHK

 - 33.0%  - 9.6%

1 BHK

Q3-08

Q4-08

Q1-09

Q2-09

Q3-09

Q4-09

Q1-10

Q2-10

Q3-10

Q4-10

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

Source: NAI Qatar reports, Markaz Analysis

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”

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MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH Chart 7: M-o-M Building Materials Price Change – Abu Dhabi (Jun -12) 6%

4.8%

4%

2.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.5%

2%

0.0%

0%

-1.2% -1.3% -1.4% -0.9% -1.2% -1.3%

-2%

-4%

-3.9% -3.7% -4.5%

-6%

-7.0%

-8%

-10% -10.1%

-12%

Source: Statistics Centre – Abu Dhabi (SCAD), Building Materials Price Statistics, June 2012, Markaz Analysis

Chart 8: Y-o-Y Building Materials Price Change – Abu Dhabi (Jun -12) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

-5% -10% -15%

-20%

15.5% 16.2% 13.0%12.7% 9.5%

3.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% -2.8% -4.0% -5.9% -3.3% -4.5% -7.5% -8.0% -6.7% -7.9% -9.3% -12.4% -15.3% -15.7%

-25%

-22.4%

Source: Statistics Centre – Abu Dhabi (SCAD), Building Materials Price Statistics, June 2012, Markaz Analysis

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”

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MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH Chart 9: Dubai Consumer Price Index (CPI) and House Rents – 2011-12 130

120 110

100 90

80 70

60 50 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012

CPI

Housing Component

Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, Monthly Consumer Price Indices (2011 & 2012), Markaz Analysis

Chart 10: Qatar Consumer Price Index (CPI) and House Rents – 2011-12 120 110 100

90 80 70 60

50 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012

CPI

Housing Component

Source: Qatar Information Exchange, Monthly Consumer Price Indices (2011 & 2012), Markaz Analysis

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”

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MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH Chart 11: Egypt Consumer Price Index (CPI) and House Rents – 2011-12 130 120 110 100 90 80 70

60 50 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 CPI

Housing Component

Source: Central Bank of Egypt, Monthly Consumer Price Indices (2011 & 2012), Markaz Analysis

Exhibit 1: Qatar - Change in Residential Rental Rates Q-o-Q (Q2-12 – Q1-12) Changes in Residential Rentals Q-o-Q (%) Villa

3 BHK

2 BHK

1 BHK

Furnished

0.31

2.91

3.35

7.02

Unfurnished

1.96

-0.83

4.02

-3.78

Source: NAI Qatar report, Q2-12, Markaz Analysis

Exhibit 2: Qatar - Residential Rental Rates – Q2-12 Qatar Residential Rental Rates - Q2-12 (QAR/pm) Apartments

NAI Qatar Asteco

Villas

Studio

1 BHK

2 BHK

3 BHK

3 BHK

4 BHK

5 BHK

Furnished

-

6,253

7,663

9,412

14,355

Unfurnished

-

5,182

6,198

7,559

12,889

Max

7,500

11,000

14,000

17,500

19,000

26,000

31,000

Min

2,750

3,000

4,250

6,000

7,500

9,000

10,500

Source: NAI Qatar report, Q2-12, Asteco Qatar report, Q2-12, Markaz Analysis

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”

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Villa No.

Land Value

Total No.

Value

W-o-W

No. -16.5% 1.8%

Value -15.8% -25.2%

5.6% 18.8%

Value 12.7% 36.0%

No. -1.6% 90.6%

-3.2% 53.8%

-12.8% 13.3%

-8.3% 4.9%

90 1,200

80

70 1,000

60 800

50

40 600

30 400

20

10 200

0

No. of transactions

35 160

30

140

25 120

20

100

15

80

10

60

40

5

20

-

0

No. of transactions

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”

Value Transacted (AED Mn)

Transactions

Value Transacted (AED Mn)

W01-2011 W03-2011 W05-2011 W07-2011 W09-2011 W11-2011 W13-2011 W15-2011 W17-2011 W19-2011 W21-2011 W23-2011 W25-2011 W27-2011 W29-2011 W31-2011 W33-2011 W36-2011 W38-2011 W40-2011 W42-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W48-2011 W50-2011 W52-2011 W02-2012 W04-2012 W06-2012 W08-2012 W10-2012 W12-2012 W14-2012 W16-2012 W18-2012 W20-2012 W22-2012 W24-2012 W26-2012 W28-2012

No. of Transactions

Apartment

W01-2011 W03-2011 W05-2011 W07-2011 W09-2011 W11-2011 W13-2011 W15-2011 W17-2011 W19-2011 W21-2011 W23-2011 W25-2011 W27-2011 W29-2011 W31-2011 W33-2011 W36-2011 W38-2011 W40-2011 W42-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W48-2011 W50-2011 W52-2011 W02-2012 W04-2012 W06-2012 W08-2012 W10-2012 W12-2012 W14-2012 W16-2012 W18-2012 W20-2012 W22-2012 W24-2012 W26-2012 W28-2012

No. of Transactions

Activity Monitor MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

Dubai Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012) Y-o-Y

Land Transactions

Value transacted (AED Mn)

Villa Transactions

Value transacted (AED Mn)

8


W01-2011 W03-2011 W05-2011 W07-2011 W09-2011 W11-2011 W13-2011 W15-2011 W17-2011 W19-2011 W21-2011 W23-2011 W25-2011 W27-2011 W29-2011 W31-2011 W33-2011 W36-2011 W38-2011 W40-2011 W42-2011 W44-2011 W46-2011 W48-2011 W50-2011 W52-2011 W02-2012 W04-2012 W06-2012 W08-2012 W10-2012 W12-2012 W14-2012 W16-2012 W18-2012 W20-2012 W22-2012 W24-2012 W26-2012 W28-2012

No. of Transactions

600 600

500 500

400 400

300 300

200 200

100 100

0

No. of transactions

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”

Value Transacted (AED Mn)

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

Apartment Transactions

Value transacted (AED Mn)

Source: Dubai Land Department Note: 1) The above table/chart represents transactions as per the registration date and not the transaction date 2) Outliers identified are removed for better clarity.

9


W01-2011 W03-2011 W05-2011 W07-2011 W09-2011 W11-2011 W13-2011 W15-2011 W17-2011 W19-2011 W21-2011 W23-2011 W25-2011 W27-2011 W29-2011 W31-2011 W33-2011 W35-2011 W37-2011 W39-2011 W41-2011 W43-2011 W46-2011 W48-2011 W50-2011 W52-2011 W02-2012 W04-2012 W06-2012 W08-2012 W10-2012 W12-2012 W14-2012 W16-2012 W18-2012 W21-2012 W23-2012 W25-2012 W27-2012

No. of Transactions

Private Residential

Total No.

Value

Investment No.

Value

Commercial

No.

Value

W-o-W 10.4% 63.9%

-6.2% 74.6%

-14.3% 0.0%

15.0% 61.8%

No. N.A. -100.0%

Value N.A. -100.0%

6.4% 50.0%

-0.2% 66.9%

350 180

300 160

250 140

200 120

100

150 80

100 60

50 40

20

0 0

No. of transactions

70 70

60 60

50 50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

No. of transactions

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”

Value Transacted (KWD Mn)

Transactions

Value Transacted (KWD Mn)

W01-2011 W03-2011 W05-2011 W07-2011 W09-2011 W11-2011 W13-2011 W15-2011 W17-2011 W19-2011 W21-2011 W23-2011 W25-2011 W27-2011 W29-2011 W31-2011 W33-2011 W35-2011 W37-2011 W39-2011 W41-2011 W43-2011 W46-2011 W48-2011 W50-2011 W52-2011 W02-2012 W04-2012 W06-2012 W08-2012 W10-2012 W12-2012 W14-2012 W16-2012 W18-2012 W21-2012 W23-2012 W25-2012 W27-2012

No. of Transactions

Kuwait Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

Y-o-Y

Private Residential Property transactions

Value transacted (KWD Mn)

Investment Property transactions

Value transacted (KWD Mn)

Source: MOJ, Kuwait

10


W01-2011 W03-2011 W05-2011 W07-2011 W09-2011 W11-2011 W13-2011 W15-2011 W17-2011 W19-2011 W21-2011 W23-2011 W25-2011 W27-2011 W29-2011 W31-2011 W33-2011 W36-2011 W38-2011 W40-2011 W42-2011 W44-2011 W47-2011 W49-2011 W51-2011 W01-2012 W03-2012 W05-2012 W07-2012 W09-2012 W11-2012 W13-2012 W15-2012 W17-2012 W19-2012 W21-2012 W23-2012 W25-2012 W27-2012 W29-2012

No. of Transactions

Residential

Commercial

Total No.

Value

No.

Value

W-o-W

No. -11.6% -60.4%

Value -85.1% -46.4%

0.0% -28.9%

-85.9% -12.3%

-9.4% -56.4%

-85.5% -32.4%

3,000 3,000

2,500 2,500

2,000 2,000

1,500 1,500

1,000 1,000

500 500

0 0

No. of Transactions

450 3,500

400

350 3,000

300 2,500

250

2,000

200

150

1,500

100

1,000

50

500

0

0

No. of Transactions

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

Transactions

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

W01-2011 W03-2011 W05-2011 W07-2011 W09-2011 W11-2011 W13-2011 W15-2011 W17-2011 W19-2011 W21-2011 W23-2011 W25-2011 W27-2011 W29-2011 W31-2011 W33-2011 W36-2011 W38-2011 W40-2011 W42-2011 W44-2011 W47-2011 W49-2011 W51-2011 W01-2012 W03-2012 W05-2012 W07-2012 W09-2012 W11-2012 W13-2012 W15-2012 W17-2012 W19-2012 W21-2012 W23-2012 W25-2012 W27-2012 W29-2012

No. of Transactions

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

KSA Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)

Riyadh Real Estate Transactions Y-o-Y

Riyadh – Residential transactions

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

Riyadh – Commercial transactions

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

Source: MOJ

11


W01-2011 W03-2011 W05-2011 W07-2011 W09-2011 W11-2011 W13-2011 W15-2011 W17-2011 W19-2011 W21-2011 W23-2011 W25-2011 W27-2011 W29-2011 W31-2011 W33-2011 W36-2011 W38-2011 W40-2011 W42-2011 W44-2011 W47-2011 W49-2011 W51-2011 W01-2012 W03-2012 W05-2012 W07-2012 W09-2012 W11-2012 W13-2012 W15-2012 W17-2012 W19-2012 W21-2012 W23-2012 W25-2012 W27-2012 W29-2012

No. of Transactions

W-o-W -7.4% -40.6%

-0.6% -38.9%

-43.2% -63.2%

-67.2% -73.4%

-14.0% -44.7%

-43.9% -59.0%

600 1,800

500 1,600

1,400

400 1,200

300 1,000

800

200 600

100 400

200

0 0

No. of Transactions

180 1,200

160

140 1,000

120 800

100

80

600

60

400

40

20

200

0

0

No. of Transactions

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

Transactions No. Residential Value No. Commercial Value No. Total Value

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

W01-2011 W03-2011 W05-2011 W07-2011 W09-2011 W11-2011 W13-2011 W15-2011 W17-2011 W19-2011 W21-2011 W23-2011 W25-2011 W27-2011 W29-2011 W31-2011 W33-2011 W36-2011 W38-2011 W40-2011 W42-2011 W44-2011 W47-2011 W49-2011 W51-2011 W01-2012 W03-2012 W05-2012 W07-2012 W09-2012 W11-2012 W13-2012 W15-2012 W17-2012 W19-2012 W21-2012 W23-2012 W25-2012 W27-2012 W29-2012

No. of Transactions

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

Dammam Real Estate Transactions Y-o-Y

Dammam – Residential transactions

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

Dammam – Commercial transactions

Source: MOJ

Value Transacted (SAR Mn)

12


W01-2011 W03-2011 W05-2011 W09-2011 W11-2011 W13-2011 W15-2011 W17-2011 W19-2011 W21-2011 W23-2011 W25-2011 W27-2011 W29-2011 W32-2011 W34-2011 W38-2011 W40-2011 W42-2011 W44-2011 W47-2011 W49-2011 W52-2011 W02-2012 W04-2012 W06-2012 W08-2012 W10-2012 W12-2012 W15-2012 W17-2012 W19-2012 W21-2012 W23-2012 W25-2012 W27-2012

No. of Transactions

Transactions

No.

Value

W-o-W 86.00% 78.85%

-33.08% 21.26%

400 4,000

350 3,500

300 3,000

250 2,500

200 2,000

150 1,500

100 1,000

50 500

0 0

No. of transactions

Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”

Value Transacted (QAR Mn)

Qatar Real Estate Transactions (2011 & 2012)

MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

Y-o-Y

Value transacted (QAR Mn)

Source: MOJ

13


MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH

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