Issuu on Google+

Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market Report


Table 7 December 2009 Greater Phoenix Single Family Detached Sales (No Other ARMLS Residential Categories Included) Residential Sold Price Range

Sales

Active Listings

Under $50,999 50,000 to 99,999 100,000 to 149,999 150,000 to 199,999 200,000 to 249,999 250,000 to 299,999 300,000 to 349,999 350,000 to 399,999 400,000 to 499,999 500,000 to 599,999 600,000 to 699,999 700,000 to 799,999 800,000 to 899,999 900,000 to 999,999 1,000,000 to 1,499,999 1,500,000 to 1,999,999 2,000,000 to 2,999,999 Over 3,000,000

484 1,630 1,672 1,054 565 371 246 158 159 84 56 45 28 15 42 15 14 4

710 3,839 5,117 4,117 2,526 1,959 1,214 1,090 1,320 860 644 461 418 350 775 444 158 402

TOTAL

6,642

26,404

Estimated Months of Supply

Mean Price Per Sq. Ft.

Short Sales (No.)

Short Sales (%)

LenderOwned Sales (No.)

LenderOwned Sales ( %)

1.5 2.4 3.1 3.9 4.5 5.3 4.9 6.9 8.3 10.2 11.5 10.2 14.9 23.3 18.5 29.6 11.3 100.5

$30.49 $53.04 $73.33 $92.17 $107.00 $118.74 $125.46 $136.88 $150.44 $179.85 $189.00 $215.62 $208.39 $210.26 $261.32 $311.63 $411.66 $584.22

72 437 407 281 143 96 52 27 25 16 10 8 2 2 4 3 1 0

15% 27% 24% 27% 25% 26% 21% 17% 16% 19% 18% 18% 7% 13% 10% 20% 7% 0%

340 861 757 354 173 106 69 35 38 26 10 11 10 2 13 2 4 1

70% 53% 45% 34% 31% 29% 28% 22% 24% 31% 18% 24% 36% 13% 31% 13% 29% 25%

4.0

$86.74

1,586

24%

2,812

42%

Other (No.) 73 332 508 418 249 169 125 96 96 42 36 26 16 11 25 10 9 3 2,244

Other (%)

Total

15% 20% 30% 40% 44% 46% 51% 61% 60% 50% 64% 58% 57% 73% 60% 67% 64% 75% 34%

100% 100% 99% 101% 100% 101% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 101% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Some percentages may add up to 99% or 101% due to rounding.

Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230

8


The Melcher Agency

Market Dynamics Median Price (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

KEY INFORMATION Jan-08

Jan-10

For Sale

255,000

Under Contract

229,900

Sold

227,350

Percent Change

160,000

-95,000

-37.3

129,900

-100,000

-43.5

125,000

-102,350

-45.0

MLS: ARMLS

Period:

Property Types:

Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)

All MLS:

Arizona Regional MLS

BrokerMetrics®

2 Years (Monthly)

Median Price Change

Price:

All

Construction Type:

All

Bedrooms:

All

Bathrooms:

All

Lot Size: All Sq Ft:

1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

All

02/14/10


The Melcher Agency

Market Dynamics Median Price (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

Time Period

FOR SALE Median $ # Properties

UNDER CONTRACT Median $ # Properties

SOLD Median $ # Properties

EXPIRED Median $ # Properties

NEW LISTINGS Median $ # Properties

Jan-10

160,000

51,972

129,900

6,954

125,000

5,638

175,000

4,840

149,000

12,789

Dec-09

160,000

48,966

125,000

5,812

128,000

7,438

180,000

3,971

134,900

10,220

Nov-09

168,900

48,509

129,900

6,003

132,000

7,276

198,000

3,760

142,900

10,581

Oct-09

169,000

49,431

130,000

7,473

130,000

7,859

199,000

4,030

145,000

12,778

Sep-09

169,900

48,524

129,900

7,887

130,000

7,641

200,000

3,984

142,900

12,209

Aug-09

170,000

48,575

129,900

8,153

127,500

7,761

199,900

4,107

139,900

12,187

Jul-09

175,000

49,476

125,900

8,094

126,900

8,834

205,000

4,994

139,900

12,470

Jun-09

179,000

50,895

128,500

8,707

125,635

9,066

215,000

5,182

139,900

12,315

May-09

181,025

53,252

127,500

8,877

120,000

9,034

219,900

5,795

144,900

10,705

Apr-09

179,000

59,180

120,000

10,540

115,500

8,351

199,900

6,093

148,900

10,864

Mar-09

174,677

64,815

120,000

9,506

120,000

7,426

180,000

6,993

139,800

13,974

Feb-09

175,000

64,873

124,900

7,217

125,000

5,319

179,000

6,815

149,900

12,380

Jan-09

179,000

67,603

129,900

6,299

130,000

4,594

199,900

8,811

159,995

13,441

Dec-08

179,900

66,982

137,000

5,055

144,000

5,409

199,900

7,765

138,900

11,668

Nov-08

189,500

66,892

147,900

4,490

151,900

4,267

210,000

7,088

155,700

12,139

Oct-08

195,000

67,414

151,900

5,015

165,000

5,258

219,000

7,646

161,250

14,336

Sep-08

200,000

66,355

168,400

5,380

172,500

5,977

225,000

7,897

169,900

13,929

Aug-08

212,000

65,654

174,900

5,539

186,000

5,491

232,000

7,689

175,000

13,261

Jul-08

220,000

68,039

189,900

6,845

193,000

5,856

239,000

8,801

181,000

13,196

Jun-08

229,900

70,145

199,900

6,137

203,908

5,607

249,800

9,165

192,000

13,250

May-08

239,000

71,286

210,000

5,688

210,070

5,438

252,000

8,703

205,000

12,746

Apr-08

244,900

72,617

219,900

5,454

217,000

4,638

249,900

8,623

219,900

13,457

Mar-08

249,900

71,983

224,792

4,570

218,000

4,133

260,000

8,253

224,900

13,173

Feb-08

250,000

70,545

226,154

3,865

220,000

3,276

260,000

7,870

232,000

12,700

Jan-08

255,000

70,267

229,900

3,469

227,350

2,808

260,000

8,953

239,999

15,540

BrokerMetrics®

2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

02/14/10


The Melcher Agency

Market Dynamics Sold Average vs. Median Price 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

KEY INFORMATION Jan-08

Jan-10

Price Change

Percent Change

Average

320,933

178,235

-142,697

-44.5

Median

227,350

125,000

-102,350

-45.0

MLS: ARMLS

Period:

Property Types:

Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)

All MLS:

Arizona Regional MLS

BrokerMetrics®

2 Years (Monthly)

Price:

All

Construction Type:

All

Bedrooms:

All

Bathrooms:

All

Lot Size: All Sq Ft:

1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

All

02/14/10


The Melcher Agency

Market Dynamics Sold Average vs. Median Price 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

Time Period

# Properties Sold

Sold Average $

Sold Median $

Average $ - Median $

Median $ as % of Average $

Sold Avg DOM

Jan-10

5,638

178,235

125,000

53,235

70.1

91

Dec-09

7,438

179,503

128,000

51,503

71.3

92

Nov-09

7,276

176,106

132,000

44,106

75.0

89

Oct-09

7,859

171,830

130,000

41,830

75.7

89

Sep-09

7,641

176,109

130,000

46,109

73.8

93

Aug-09

7,761

172,180

127,500

44,680

74.0

99

Jul-09

8,834

177,299

126,900

50,399

71.6

110

Jun-09

9,066

171,942

125,635

46,307

73.1

116

May-09

9,034

164,140

120,000

44,140

73.1

120

Apr-09

8,351

159,607

115,500

44,107

72.4

122

Mar-09

7,426

160,126

120,000

40,126

74.9

127

Feb-09

5,319

173,320

125,000

48,320

72.1

122

Jan-09

4,594

181,469

130,000

51,469

71.6

114

Dec-08

5,409

191,932

144,000

47,932

75.0

108

Nov-08

4,267

205,420

151,900

53,520

74.0

111

Oct-08

5,258

212,942

165,000

47,942

77.5

116

Sep-08

5,977

220,095

172,500

47,595

78.4

101

Aug-08

5,491

239,512

186,000

53,512

77.7

114

Jul-08

5,856

251,861

193,000

58,861

76.6

124

Jun-08

5,607

267,344

203,908

63,436

76.3

132

May-08

5,438

274,981

210,070

64,912

76.4

128

Apr-08

4,638

284,028

217,000

67,028

76.4

135

Mar-08

4,133

300,290

218,000

82,290

72.6

132

Feb-08

3,276

297,945

220,000

77,945

73.8

138

Jan-08

2,808

320,933

227,350

93,583

70.8

139

BrokerMetricsÂŽ

2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. Š 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

02/14/10


The Melcher Agency

Market Dynamics Supply & Demand - # Units (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

KEY INFORMATION Jan-08

Jan-10

# Units Change

For Sale

70,267

51,972

-18,295

-26.0

Under Contract

3,469

6,954

3,485

100.5

Sold

2,808

5,638

2,830

100.8

MLS: ARMLS

Period:

Property Types:

Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)

All MLS:

Arizona Regional MLS

BrokerMetrics®

2 Years (Monthly)

Price:

All

Percent Change

Construction Type:

All

Bedrooms:

All

Bathrooms:

All

Lot Size: All Sq Ft:

1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

All

02/14/10


The Melcher Agency

Market Dynamics Supply & Demand - # Units (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

Time Period

FOR SALE # Properties Average DOM

UNDER CONTRACT # Properties Average DOM

SOLD # Properties Average DOM

EXPIRED # Properties Average DOM

NEW LISTINGS # Properties

Jan-10

51,972

137

6,954

84

5,638

91

4,840

189

12,789

Dec-09

48,966

162

5,812

86

7,438

92

3,971

176

10,220

Nov-09

48,509

176

6,003

86

7,276

89

3,760

178

10,581

Oct-09

49,431

185

7,473

85

7,859

89

4,030

183

12,778

Sep-09

48,524

197

7,887

87

7,641

93

3,984

189

12,209

Aug-09

48,575

205

8,153

89

7,761

99

4,107

188

12,187

Jul-09

49,476

215

8,094

95

8,834

110

4,994

202

12,470

Jun-09

50,895

223

8,707

107

9,066

116

5,182

201

12,315

May-09

53,252

231

8,877

123

9,034

120

5,795

198

10,705

Apr-09

59,180

229

10,540

122

8,351

122

6,093

191

10,864

Mar-09

64,815

226

9,506

124

7,426

127

6,993

184

13,974

Feb-09

64,873

232

7,217

127

5,319

122

6,815

179

12,380

Jan-09

67,603

236

6,299

125

4,594

114

8,811

201

13,441

Dec-08

66,982

238

5,055

115

5,409

108

7,765

186

11,668

Nov-08

66,892

239

4,490

107

4,267

111

7,088

181

12,139

Oct-08

67,414

238

5,015

108

5,258

116

7,646

178

14,336

Sep-08

66,355

238

5,380

115

5,977

101

7,897

180

13,929

Aug-08

65,654

238

5,539

106

5,491

114

7,689

185

13,261

Jul-08

68,039

234

6,845

119

5,856

124

8,801

179

13,196

Jun-08

70,145

234

6,137

125

5,607

132

9,165

184

13,250

May-08

71,286

234

5,688

128

5,438

128

8,703

179

12,746

Apr-08

72,617

234

5,454

131

4,638

135

8,623

177

13,457

Mar-08

71,983

235

4,570

133

4,133

132

8,253

180

13,173

Feb-08

70,545

237

3,865

134

3,276

138

7,870

173

12,700

Jan-08

70,267

237

3,469

137

2,808

139

8,953

169

15,540

BrokerMetrics®

2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

02/14/10


The Melcher Agency

Market Dynamics Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

KEY INFORMATION Jan-08

Jan-10

Change

Percent Change

MSI

17

6

-11

-65.4

DOM

137

84

-53

-38.9

MLS: ARMLS

Period:

Property Types:

Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)

All MLS:

Arizona Regional MLS

BrokerMetrics®

2 Years (Monthly)

Price:

All

Construction Type:

All

Bedrooms:

All

Bathrooms:

All

Lot Size: All Sq Ft:

1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

All

02/14/10


The Melcher Agency

Market Dynamics Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10 Time Period

Months Supply of Inventory

NAR MSI

# Properties For Sale Last Day of Month

# Properties Under Contract

Under Contract Average DOM

# Properties Sold

Jan-10

5.8

7.1

40,178

6,954

84

5,638

Dec-09

6.7

5.3

39,183

5,812

86

7,438

Nov-09

6.5

5.3

38,746

6,003

86

7,276

Oct-09

5.1

4.8

37,928

7,473

85

7,859

Sep-09

4.6

4.8

36,653

7,887

87

7,641

Aug-09

4.5

4.7

36,315

8,153

89

7,761

Jul-09

4.5

4.1

36,388

8,094

95

8,834

Jun-09

4.3

4.1

37,006

8,707

107

9,066

May-09

4.3

4.3

38,580

8,877

123

9,034

Apr-09

4.0

5.1

42,547

10,540

122

8,351

Mar-09

5.1

6.5

48,316

9,506

124

7,426

Feb-09

7.0

9.6

50,841

7,217

127

5,319

Jan-09

8.3

11.4

52,493

6,299

125

4,594

Dec-08

10.7

10.0

54,162

5,055

115

5,409

Nov-08

12.3

13.0

55,314

4,490

107

4,267

Oct-08

10.9

10.4

54,753

5,015

108

5,258

Sep-08

9.9

8.9

53,078

5,380

115

5,977

Aug-08

9.5

9.5

52,426

5,539

106

5,491

Jul-08

7.7

8.9

52,393

6,845

119

5,856

Jun-08

8.9

9.8

54,843

6,137

125

5,607

May-08

10.0

10.5

56,895

5,688

128

5,438

Apr-08

10.7

12.6

58,540

5,454

131

4,638

Mar-08

12.9

14.3

59,160

4,570

133

4,133

Feb-08

15.2

18.0

58,810

3,865

134

3,276

Jan-08

16.7

20.6

57,845

3,469

137

2,808

BrokerMetrics®

2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

02/14/10


The Melcher Agency

Market Dynamics Basic Absorption 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

KEY INFORMATION Jan-08

Jan-10

Change

Percent Change

3,469

6,954

3,485

100.5

New

15,540

12,789

-2,751

-17.7

Residual Inventory

43,348

29,779

-13,569

-31.3

Under Contract

MLS: ARMLS

Period:

Property Types:

Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)

All MLS:

Arizona Regional MLS

BrokerMetrics®

2 Years (Monthly)

Price:

All

Construction Type:

All

Bedrooms:

All

Bathrooms:

All

Lot Size: All Sq Ft:

1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

All

02/14/10


The Melcher Agency

Market Dynamics Basic Absorption 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10 Time Period

# Properties Under Contract

# New Properties Listed

# Residual Inventory Properties

Under Contract / New %

Under Contract / Residual Inventory %

Jan-10

6,954

12,789

29,779

54.37

23.35

Dec-09

5,812

10,220

30,841

56.87

18.85

Nov-09

6,003

10,581

30,078

56.73

19.96

Oct-09

7,473

12,778

27,957

58.48

26.73

Sep-09

7,887

12,209

27,398

64.60

28.79

Aug-09

8,153

12,187

27,222

66.90

29.95

Jul-09

8,094

12,470

27,084

64.91

29.88

Jun-09

8,707

12,315

28,015

70.70

31.08

May-09

8,877

10,705

30,556

82.92

29.05

Apr-09

10,540

10,864

34,228

97.02

30.79

Mar-09

9,506

13,974

37,271

68.03

25.51

Feb-09

7,217

12,380

40,416

58.30

17.86

Jan-09

6,299

13,441

40,830

46.86

15.43

Dec-08

5,055

11,668

43,941

43.32

11.50

Nov-08

4,490

12,139

44,404

36.99

10.11

Oct-08

5,015

14,336

42,087

34.98

11.92

Sep-08

5,380

13,929

40,734

38.62

13.21

Aug-08

5,539

13,261

40,752

41.77

13.59

Jul-08

6,845

13,196

40,859

51.87

16.75

Jun-08

6,137

13,250

42,951

46.32

14.29

May-08

5,688

12,746

45,288

44.63

12.56

Apr-08

5,454

13,457

46,198

40.53

11.81

Mar-08

4,570

13,173

46,905

34.69

9.74

Feb-08

3,865

12,700

46,927

30.43

8.24

Jan-08

3,469

15,540

43,348

22.32

8.00

BrokerMetricsÂŽ

2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. Š 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

02/14/10


MARKET CONDITION REPORT MARICOPA COUNTY   FEBRUARY 2010                     HISTORICAL INFORMATION  PHOENIX AREA                     FEBRUARY 2010 .

PERCENT CLOSING CLOSINGS CLOSINGS CLOSINGS CLOSINGS PERCENT  PRICE REO SHORT STANDARD SELLING MONTH CHANGE EVALUATED Jan‐09 $130,000 4,269 2,871 390 1,008 37% Feb‐09 $128,000 ‐$2,000 4,899 3,294 439 1,166 46% Mar‐09 $120,750 ‐$7,250 6,914 4,713 652 1,549 55% Apr‐09 $118,160 ‐$2,590 7,704 5,146 726 1,832 62% May‐09 $122,000 $3,840 8,275 5,321 863 2,091 66% Jun‐09 $130,000 $8,000 8,265 4,812 1,043 2,410 70% $$130,000 $$0 Jul‐09 7,979 4,323 1,183 2,473 69% Aug‐09 $131,000 $1,000 7,005 3,640 1,224 2,141 72% Sep‐09 $135,995 $4,995 6,856 3,318 1,239 2,299 69% Oct‐09 $135,000 ‐$995 7,009 3,120 1,314 2,575 69% Nov‐09 $136,000 $1,000 6,509 2,638 1,257 2,614 70% Dec‐09 $135,000 ‐$1,000 6,637 2,825 1,502 2,310 69% Jan‐10 $130,000 ‐$5,000 5,071 2,138 1,177 1,756 59% TOTALS $0 87,392 48,159 13,009 26,224 AVERAGE $0 6,722 55% 15% 30% 62% Historical Information for Jan‐10 (reviewed and adjusted 2/2010) is a close estimate only‐subject to future revision

OVERALL MARKET (ORDERED ON MARKET SPEED) AREA Avondale Queen Creek Goodyear Glendale Phoenix Surprise Chandler Peoria Anthem Mesa Gilbert Tempe Sun City Scottsdale Fountain Hills TOTALS

ON MARKET (SUPPLY)

CLOSED MONTH (DEMAND)

FAIL MONTH

IN ESCROW

PERCENT SELLING

TIME TO SELL (DAYS)

MONTHS SUPPLY

MARKET SPEED

MEDIAN ASK PRICE

MEDIAN IN ESCROW PRICE

MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE

575 1,001 758 1,362 6,878 1,451 1,545 1,312 240 2,720 1,812 521 503 3,470 414 24,562

150 254 166 295 1,397 292 278 231 42 463 305 80 70 340 36 4,401

47 103 71 125 755 139 144 111 27 254 152 62 44 346 47 2,427

233 399 237 521 2,216 520 410 442 111 786 602 119 113 521 62 7,292

76% 71% 70% 70% 65% 68% 66% 68% 61% 65% 67% 56% 61% 50% 44% 64%

68 80 85 66 79 78 92 89 86 90 95 81 102 157 162 89

3.8 3.9 4.6 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.5 7.2 10.2 11.5 5.6

51 50 43 43 40 40 35 35 35 34 33 30 27 19 17 35

$110 $130 $170 $130 $150 $149 $215 $190 $215 $ $160 $200 $200 $145 $644 $499 $180

$102 $120 $162 $112 $106 $135 $187 $163 $175 $ $135 $187 $176 $130 $400 $382 $135

$108 $113 $145 $110 $96 $135 $190 $160 $205 $ $131 $185 $174 $125 $400 $330 $131

MARKET SPEED measures the rate of conversion of listings to closings. The higher this number, the faster the market is converting. The  area with the highest speed is the "quickest" market and is the most desirable to buyers.  (Red font in Median In Escrow Price column  signals expected price weakness.)  Market Speed has declined from 61 in July 2009, to 51 in September, to the current 35.  Overall, the gradual slowing trend continues.   Consequently, Months Supply has increased and Percent Selling declined.  Net inventory in escrow has begun to rise signaling the  slowing trend will begin to reverse and closings will gradually increase.  Note the price history in Historical Information.  Median Price is  gyrating between $118K in April of 2009 to $136K in November.  Clearly, this is a market in search of bottom and that bottom occurred  in April of 2009 at $118K median.  Since then, the schedule has risen into the mid $130's.  All other things being equal, and given that In  Escrow Price is on the rise, look for stabilization with gradual positive trending of the price schedule.  For those buyers awaiting bottom,  their time to act is as soon as possible.  Note the report is sorted on Market Speed.  This will place those areas most popular with buyers  at the top of the report. 

Information believed accurate but not guaranteed.  Estimates based on generally accepted statistical sampling practices.


MARICOPA COUNTY MARKET CONDITION REPORT REO ONLY (SORTED ON MARKET SPEED)

FEBRUARY 2010

AREA Anthem Avondale Goodyear Queen Creek Surprise Peoria Phoenix Glendale Chandler Mesa Gilbert Tempe Sun City Scottsdale Fountain Hills TOTALS

FEBRUARY 2010 MEDIAN ASK PRICE

MEDIAN IN ESCROW PRICE

MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE

$209 $110 $150 $150 $131 $150 $99 $112 $181 $133 $175 $160 $110 $357 $450 $149

$164 $95 $139 $132 $125 $140 $91 $101 $159 $123 $165 $150 $134 $300 $538 $140

$160 $104 $135 $113 $125 $140 $75 $95 $158 $110 $169 $150 $127 $353 $329 $115

MARKET SPEED

MEDIAN ASK PRICE

MEDIAN IN ESCROW PRICE

MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE

62 52 47 43 42 41 40 39 38 38 34 29 22 21 19 40

$115 $140 $150 $125 $185 $165 $175 $120 $135 $385 $130 $344 $104 $120 $187 $144

$115 $175 $165 $110 $185 $165 $175 $120 $135 $360 $142 $269 $104 $125 $175 $140

$105 $129 $155 $110 $186 $160 $175 $107 $133 $335 $125 $295 $102 $127 $185 $139

MARKET SPEED

MEDIAN ASK PRICE

MEDIAN IN ESCROW PRICE

MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE

54 50 39 39 37 34 33 32 28 27 26 24 23 14 12 27

$165 $139 $272 $181 $220 $259 $234 $265 $235 $195 $255 $155 $250 $799 $575 $290

$120 $122 $234 $121 $183 $224 $199 $215 $127 $145 $200 $129 $217 $475 $435 $170

$122 $125 $255 $139 $165 $213 $204 $218 $137 $155 $200 $125 $218 $475 $348 $180

PERCENT SELLING

TIME TO SELL (DAYS)

MONTHS SUPPLY

MARKET SPEED

100% 95% 93% 92% 92% 94% 90% 93% 91% 90% 95% 87% 89% 84% 83% 91%

45 43 59 56 44 62 57 50 71 74 66 64 62 144 137 63

1.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 21 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 1.88

191 143 127 124 115 115 109 106 96 94 91 81 76 74 73 105

ON MARKET (SUPPLY)

CLOSED MONTH (DEMAND)

FAIL MONTH

IN ESCROW

11 109 111 127 195 164 1,224 272 198 385 199 68 41 238 33 3,375

11 79 72 80 114 96 677 146 97 184 92 28 16 89 12 1,792

0 4 6 7 10 6 75 11 10 20 5 4 2 17 3 178

23 94 74 99 145 151 767 212 122 264 155 37 24 97 12 2,276

ON MARKET (SUPPLY)

CLOSED MONTH (DEMAND)

FAIL MONTH

IN ESCROW

PERCENT SELLING

TIME TO SELL (DAYS)

MONTHS SUPPLY

584 343 158 2,712 712 593 923 662 1,052 711 70 76 330 713 140 9,779

185 90 38 587 151 124 188 130 203 137 12 11 36 77 14 1,983

56 30 15 281 62 57 79 67 101 62 8 6 28 66 16 933

159 88 30 747 137 164 256 160 240 188 20 18 86 216 55 2,564

77% 75% 72% 68% 71% 68% 70% 66% 67% 69% 61% 66% 56% 54% 47% 68%

135 128 114 129 148 129 151 121 125 181 224 264 125 139 160 137

3.2 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.7 48 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.8 6.9 9.2 93 9.3 10.2 4.9

ON MARKET (SUPPLY)

CLOSED MONTH (DEMAND)

FAIL MONTH

IN ESCROW

PERCENT SELLING

TIME TO SELL (DAYS)

MONTHS SUPPLY

291 138 89 430 544 690 306 637 2,948 1 285 1,285 556 392 295 2,523 305 11,429

80 35 18 84 102 118 51 105 424 178 72 48 34 181 18 1,547

40 15 12 48 63 69 35 72 401 133 47 35 44 267 39 1,319

142 54 33 150 159 192 77 151 707 283 127 69 52 236 32 2,464

67% 70% 60% 64% 62% 63% 59% 59% 51% 57% 60% 58% 44% 40% 32% 54%

41 67 53 50 70 73 84 70 79 86 91 100 75 154 148 85

3.6 3.9 3 9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.9 6.0 6.1 7.0 72 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.7 14.0 16.7 7.4

SHORT SALE ONLY  (SORTED ON MARKET SPEED) AREA Queen Creek Goodyear Tempe Phoenix Chandler Peoria Gilbert Glendale Mesa Scottsdale Sun City Fountain Hills Avondale Surprise Anthem TOTALS

STANDARD ONLY  (SORTED ON MARKET SPEED) AREA Queen Creek Avondale Anthem Glendale Surprise Gilbert Goodyear Chandler Phoenix Mesa Peoria Sun City Tempe Scottsdale Fountain Hills TOTALS

Information believed accurate but not guaranteed.  Estimates based on generally accepted statistical sampling practices.


Reasons Why Short Sales Closings Will Continue To Go Up In 2010 Do you work short sales? If you don’t consider this: In 2009, there were 13,000 short sales closings in Greater Phoenix. In 2010, I estimate there will be between 18,000 to 20,000 short sale closings. This paper briefly touches on why there will be more short sale closings in 2010 and has statistics on short sale closings in 2009. • Many home are underwater. The market value is less than what is owed. The median home value in December had declined 53% from its peak in June 2006 • In 2010, home values may go up slightly in some areas, they will be flat in most areas, and may decline in other areas. • The economy. • Adjustable rate mortgage resetting at higher interest rates. • The lender usually gets more per square foot for a short sale over a lender owned sale (as seen in Table 2 below). • The Time Value of Money: If the lender believes a property is in a declining market, they are more likely to consider a short sale since will probably get more money today through a short sale than tomorrow through a lender-owned sale.

Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230

2


• Sellers are encouraged to complete a Short Sale before December 31, 2012, which is the last day of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act and Debt Cancellation.

• The Federal Government is encouraging shorts sales through their Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program (HAFA.) The program does not take effect until April 5, 2010, but servicers may implement it before then if they meet certain requirements. The program sunsets on December 31, 2012. • HAFA is intended to speed up short sale process. Some criteria of the program are: The property is the borrower’s principal residence. The mortgage loan is a first lien mortgage originated on or before January 1, 2009. The mortgage is delinquent or default is reasonably foreseeable. The current unpaid balance is equal to or less than $729,740 (the maximum unpaid balance limit may be $417,000 in Maricopa County. This has not yet been clarified). o The borrower’s total monthly mortgage payment exceeds 31 percent of the borrower’s gross income. o Provides financial incentives: $1,500 for borrower relocation assistance; $1,000 for servicers to cover administrative and processing costs; and up to $1,000 for investors for allowing a total of up to $3,000 in short sale proceeds to be distributed to subordinate lien holders.

o o o o

Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230

3


Table 1 December 2009 What Residential Property Types Are Buyers Buying? Residential Sales by All Eight ARMLS Residential Categories Category

Total Sales

Short Sales

Lender Owned

Other

Single Family Detached

No. 6,642

No. % 1,586 24%

No. % 2,812 42%

No. 2,244

% 34%

Totals (total may be 99%-101% due to rounding) 100%

Townhouse

434

93

21%

217

50%

124

29%

100%

Apartment Style/Flat

379

75

20%

188

50%

116

31%

101%

Patio

108

15

14%

28

26%

65

60%

100%

Manufactured/Mobile Housing Gemini/Twin Home

111

4

4%

43

39%

64

58%

101%

34

3

9%

12

35%

19

56%

100%

Loft

12

4

33%

3

25%

5

42%

100%

Modular / Pre-Fab

4

0

0%

3

75%

1

25%

100%

Totals

7,724

1,780 23%

2,638

34%

100%

3,306 43%

Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230

4


Table 3 Number of Lender-Owned Sales and Short Sales All Eight ARMLS Residential Categories Included Number of Sales

Jan.

Feb.

March April May

June July

Lender Owned Sales 3,077 3,566 5,053 5,564 5,835 5,351 Short Sales 419 471 701 783 979 1,152 *Other 1,246 1,439 1,874 2,205 2,470 2,847 Total 4,742 5,476 7,628 8,552 9,284 9,350

4,847 1,351 2,898 9,096

Aug. Sep. Oct.

Nov. Dec.

4,067 1,444 2,527 8,038

3,048 1,399 2,993 7,440

3,792 1,454 2,669 7,915

3,617 1,557 2,969 8,143

3,306 1,780 2,638 7,724

Table 4 Percentage of Lender-Owned Sales and Short Sales All Eight ARMLS Residential Categories Included Percentage of Sales

Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug.

Lender Owned Sales 65% 65% 66% 65% 63% 57% 53% Short Sales 9% 9% 9% 9% 11% 12% 15% *Other 26% 26% 25% 26% 27% 30% 32% 100% 100% 100% 100% 101% 99% 100%

51% 18% 31% 100%

Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 48% 18% 34% 100%

44% 19% 37% 100%

41% 19% 40% 100%

43% 23% (Over 20%) 34% 100%

Total Distressed Sales 74% 74% 75% 74% 74% 69% 68% 69% 66% 63% 60% 66% *Other is categorized as neither a lender owned sale or short sale

Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230

6


Table 5 Supply ARMLS Listings by Lender-Owned, Short Sales and Other All ARMLS Residential Categories Included Listings Lender-Owned Short Sale * Other Active Listings

July 10 4,805 7,233 19,951 31,989

Aug 22

Sep 14

15% 4,540 14% 23% 7,477 24% 62% 19,373 62% 100% 31,390 100%

4,350 14% 7,642 24% 19,233 62% 31,225 100%

Sep 26

Oct 26

Nov 5

4,241 14% 4,228 13% 4,587 14% 7,782 25% 8,120 25% 8,445 25% 19,325 62% 19,838 62% 20,190 61% 31,348 101% 32,186 100% 33,222 100%

Nov 24

Jan 9

4,716 14% 8,470 25% 20,438 61% 33,624 100%

5,450 16% 8,728 26% 19,932 58% 34,110 100%

*Other is categorized as neither a lender owned sale or short sale

Table 6 Estimated Months of Supply on November 24 January 9, 2009 Lender-Owned Listings 5,450 listings divided by 3,306 sales in December = 1.7 month supply January 9, 2009 Short Sale Listings 8,728 listings divided by 1,780 sales in December = 4.9 month supply January 9, 2009 Other Listings 19,932 listings divided by 2,638 sales in December = 7.6 month supply

Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230

7


This report is for real estate agents only. The data from this report is from ARMLS. This report is for the real estate agent. Residential Focus does not guarantee the accuracy of the data in this report. Some numbers will be adjusted. Report may not reflect all real estate activity. Information should be verified. This article is of a general nature, and is not intended as real estate advice, lending advice or legal advice. Please consult your broker, your lender and your own independent legal counsel. The information in this report may not be the opinion of Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc.

Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230

9


Greater Phoenix Real Estate market snapshot February 2010