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Youth Disconnection in Region 2 APRIL 2010

orthwest


Presentation Questions 1

 How do we define disconnection and what share of

Region 2’s youth are disconnected?

 What are the characteristics of the region’s

disconnected youth?

 How has the region fared on dropouts, graduates,

and college-going? And can the characteristics of students tell us anything about what lies ahead?


The Big Picture 2

 The region was home to about 127,000 youth aged

16-24 circa 2007.  That translates into roughly 14,000 per single-year cohort, although the distribution of population is Ushaped; lower in the late teens and early 20s when some youth leave the region for college.  The traditional definition of disconnection includes youth who are not in school and not employed.  14,000 (11%) of the region’s youths meet this definition.


Problems With the Traditional Definition of Disconnection 3

Each year, the Census Bureau sets poverty thresholds (the Federal Poverty Level or FPL) that vary by family size and composition. Each threshold is a “…statistical yardstick, not a complete description of what people and families need to live.” Many social assistance programs phase out by twice (200%) the FPL.

 The traditional definition of disconnection

includes almost 6,000 non-workers residing in household’s with income above 200% FPL.  And it misses 18,000 workers in households with income below 200% FPL. In 2009 for a family of

100% FPL

200% FPL

One

$11,201

$22,401

Two

$14,051

$28,102

Three

$17,163

$34,326

Four

$22,025

$44,050


Categorizing the Region’s Youth 4

 127,000 youth aged 16-24.

Low-income, not working (6%) Low-income (20%) Not enrolled (43%)

All youth 16-24 in Multnomah and Washington counties (100%)

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of 2006-2008 American Community Survey

 54,000 (43%) are

not enrolled in school.

 26,000 (20%) are

not in school and live below 200% of FPL.

 And 8,000 (6%) are

not enrolled in school, not working, and live below 200% FPL.


Refined categories would better target the policy response 5

 Enrolled: All youth enrolled in school.  Self-sufficient: All youth currently residing in

households with incomes above 200% FPL.  Working poor. All youth who are working, in households with incomes below 200% FPL, and likely dependent on government subsidies.  Idle poor. All youth who are neither enrolled nor working and in households with incomes below 200% FPL.


As youth age, working dependents grow to 25%, and idle dependents level off at 8% 6

100%

Percent of cohort

90%

Enrolled in School

89%

80%

Working Dependent

70%

Self Sufficient

60%

Idle Dependent 51%

50% 40%

36%

30% 25% 20% 10%

30% 25%

16% 5% 4% 3%

0% Age 16 to 18

8% Age 19 to 21

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of 2006-2008 American Community Survey.

8% Age 22 to 24


Where do working and idle poor youths live? 7

 Multnomah County

has about 14,992 (58%) of the region’s working and idle poor  Washington County has 10,831 (42%) Source: ECONorthwest analysis of the Census Bureau’s 2006-08 American Community Survey data.


Who are the Working and Idle Poor? 8

14,992 Working & Idle Poor in Multnomah County (20% of all youth) 10,831 Working & Idle Poor in Washington County (19% of all youth)

Completed HS Lang. other than English spoken at home

Non-White

Not Working

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Mult. Co. - all non-enrolled youth Mult. Co. - working and idle poor Wash. Co. - all non-enrolled youth

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of 2006-2008 American Community Survey data

Wash. Co. - working and idle poor


Who are the Working and Idle Poor? 9

14,992 Working & Idle Poor in Multnomah County (20% of all youth) 10,831 Working & Idle Poor in Washington County (19% of all youth)

Speak only English at home

Graduated High School

Are not working

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Multnomah White alone/non-Hispanic

Multnomah Non-white or Hispanic

Washington White alone/non-Hispanic

Washington Non-white or Hispanic

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of 2006-2008 American Community Survey data

100%


Beyond enrollment: Other indicators of youth at risk 10 Regional profile of at-risk and disconnected youth TANF youth

41,000

Working and idle poor

25,823

Homeless youth in school

5,000

GED recipients

1,400

Teen births

650

OYA supervision

640

County probation

600

Foster care

550 0

10,000

20,000 Region total

30,000

 The region has many

youths with risk factors for disconnection.  But, other than TANF, no single program connects with a significant share of these youths.  Stronger connections across programs would help better identify and target services for these 40,000 at-risk youth.


Tracking individuals is difficult 11

 Tracking individuals across programs and systems is

difficult and complicates identifying individual risk factors across multiple programs.  

Program data systems often do not “talk” to each other. There is no common reference ID to readily track individuals across systems. Schools typically track only what is required by the State. Even these data are not always readily available.

The K-12 and higher education systems have made progress in recent years, but more needs to be done.


Exploring the Origins of Dependent Youth 12

 About 35% of Multnomah County’s 9th graders, and

22% of Washington County’s will not graduate on time (within four years of entering 9th grade). The average for the region is 29%.  About 15% of Multnomah 9th graders, and 6% of Washington County’s will formally withdraw from school within four years (11% for the region).  By the time individuals reach their 20s, about 11% of the region’s residents report not having a high school diploma or GED.


2008-09 High School Enrollment Overview 13

7% of the region’s enrolled students attended alternative school 35,000

Total High School Enrollment Alternative Education

30,000

The characteristics of alt. ed. students differ from those of the general population. White Nonwhite

25,000

Econ. Dis.

20,000 15,000

Special Ed.

10,000

ESL

5,000 -

11%

3%

Multnomah

Washington

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Mult. Co. - All other

Mult. Co. - Alt. ed. students

Wash. Co. - All other

Wash. Co. - Alt. ed. students


Youth enrolled in Alternative Education, by race and percentage of total in County program 14 Youth enrolled in alternative education, by race and % of total in County program American Indian/ Alaska Native

Asian Pacific

Black

Hispanic

Multi-Race 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Mult. Co. - All other

Mult. Co. - Alt. ed. students

Wash. Co. - All other

Wash. Co. - Alt. ed. students

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data.

50%


High School Dropouts by District 15

Dropout Rate for 200708 School Year

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data.


High School Completion by demographic 16 53% of ESL students in Multnomah County will not graduate on time

Students most likely to drop out identify themselves as Hispanic or American Indian/Alaska Native

Multnomah Washington Drop Out Graduation Drop Out Graduation Rate Rate Rate Rate Enrollment/Denomi nator 27,727 All students 3.8 Female 3.3 White 3.1 Non-White 4.8 Enrolled in ESL 8.3 Econonomically Disadvantaged 4.2 Special education 4.1

6,104 78.5

25,799 1.7

5,583 90.0

81.4 82.7 71.3 47.4

1.6 1.1 2.9 4.7

91.1 93.2 83.2 66.3

72.1 62.2

3.2 2.1

75.0 81.4

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data.

Multnomah Washington Drop Out Graduation Drop Out Graduation Rate Rate Rate Rate White African American American Indian /Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Hispanic Other

3.1 4.5

82.7 70.7

1.1 3.2

93.2 86.1

5.9 2.5 6.7 4.4

67.8 87.1 59.1 72.2

4.0 0.8 3.6 2.7

76.3 94.0 75.5 84.2


With enrollments split almost evenly, Multnomah County schools still generate 2/3rds of the dropouts 17

Share of dropouts

27

Share of enrollment

Washington County 46

73 Multnomah County 54

0

10

20

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data.

30

40 Percent

50

60

70

80


A district’s share of the region’s dropouts is often disproportionate to share of enrollment 18 PPS

41

27 12

Beaverton 5

Hillsboro GreshamBarlow TigardTualatin

11 8 6

Reynolds

9

7 10

6

David Douglas

6

Forest Grove

3 4

Centennial

4 1

Sherwood

7

4

2

Parkrose

1

Other

1 0

21

Share of dropouts

2

Share of enrollment

2 10

20

30

Percent of the Region 2 2004-05 9th grade class Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data.

40

50


Cohort Snapshot: High school completion varies by region 19 In Washington County,  4,460 (78%) received their diploma in four years.  345 (6%) dropped out of school before graduating  In Multnomah County,  4,275 (64%) received their high school diploma in four years  994 (15%) dropped out of school before graduating  Washington

6%

Multnomah

15%

Region

11%

0%

16%

78%

21%

64%

19%

20%

4-year drop out rate

71%

40%

60%

Everybody else

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data.

80%

100%

4-year diploma


The dropout rate accelerates over time 20

Cumulative dropout rate by grade and county 16% Multnomah 14%

15%

Washington Region

12% 10%

10% 8% 6% 4% 2%

6%

6% 4% 2%

2%

1% 0% 9th Grade

10th Grade

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data.

11th Grade

12th Grade


Cohort Snapshot: High school completion varies by student demographic 21 Class of 2008 Graduation Status ESL

26%

17%

23%

20%

Non-White 10%

Low Soc-Eco Status

Mult.Co.

40%

4-year dropout rate

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data.

Mult.Co. Wash.Co.

45%

45% 20%

Wash.Co.

36%

48%

10% 0%

57%

60%

28%

12%

Wash.Co

55%

27%

18%

60% Other

Mult.Co.

57%

69%

21%

16%

Special Ed.

46%

22%

32%

80% 4-year grad. Rate

Mult.Co. Wash.Co 100%


High School Completion By Characteristic 22 25%

American Indian/ Alaska Native

31%

18%

24%

58%

11% Asian/ 8% Pacific Islander 2% 11%

Black

Multi-Race

White

88% 31%

8%

72%

31%

25%

15%

3%

58%

27%

5%

73% 20%

Mult.Co. Wash.Co.

69%

14%

81%

20%

40%

4-year dropout rate Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data.

60% Other

Mult.Co. Wash.Co. Mult.Co. Wash.Co.

67%

24% 12%

0%

43%

27%

7%

Mult.Co. Wash.Co.

52%

21%

Mult.Co. Wash.Co. Mult.Co. Wash.Co.

82%

17%

Hispanic

44%

80% 4-year grad rate

100%


Vulnerable populations increase with the incoming class 23

Characteristics in 9th grade ESL Special education Low socioeconomic status White Non-White

Class of 2008

Class of Class of 2008 2012

Mult. Co. Wash. Co. Region Region 10% 9% 9% 9% 10% 8% 9% 12% 47%

28%

38%

42%

65% 35%

72% 28%

69% 31%

63% 44%

 Graduation and dropout rates vary considerably across different

populations.  Compared to the class of 2007-08, the 9th graders enrolled are more likely to belong to groups with higher dropout rates.  These differences have important implications for policymakers. Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data.


Post-secondary Enrollment 24 College enrollment rate for the class of 2006-07

 

73% of Washington County high school students enroll in college soon after high school. For Multnomah county, just over 65% enroll. Students enrolled in ESL have the lowest rate of college enrollment (31%). Males (65%) are less likely to enroll in college than females (73%).

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data.

  

44% of students receiving special education services enrolled in college. Half of the region’s economically disadvantaged students enroll in college. White students were 10 percentage points more likely to continue their education than nonwhite students.


So, what does it all mean? 25

 The standard definition of youth disconnection misses many

individuals that the workforce development system seeks to serve (e.g., the working poor) and includes many youth that may not require special services.  Youth satisfying a more refined definition—i.e., not enrolled with income <200% FPL—comprise a diverse population (workers, the disabled, the able but idle) that presents a variety of training and education challenges.  The region does not convert a measurable share of youth from dropout to diploma status: 11% of individuals in their 20s report not having completed high school, nearly identical to the region’s four-year dropout rate.  The characteristics of recent 9th grade cohorts suggest increasing challenges for policymakers seeking to confronting youth dropout and disconnection.


Acknowledgements 26

Worksystems, Inc. commissioned ECONWest to conduct this study. Collaborating partners included Mayor Sam Adamsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Office and the Portland Schools Foundation.

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