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3RD ANNUAL

STATE OF CANADA’S CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT JUNE 2012

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Manning Centre for Building Democracy PO Box 1988, STN M Calgary, AB T2P 2M2 Tel: 403.255.8100 Email: info@mcbd.ca www.manningcentre.ca Cover: William Kurelek, Manitoba Party, 1964 Š National Gallery of Canada

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The Manning Centre for Building Democracy is a conservative-oriented “do tank� that equips

future

grassroots

activists

and

political leaders with the ideas, skills and networks necessary to make an effective contribution to Canadian politics.

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June 2012

The Manning Centre exists to help build Canada’s conservative movement. That’s why I hope our 2012 State of the Conservative Movement Report will help conservatives – by laying out our successes, our challenges and the opportunities ahead. We can’t afford to be complacent. Though we have a majority Conservative government today, the Manning Centre is concerned with the long-term vision. On that note, I want to announce the opening of Canada’s first ever “centre of the conservative movement” – slated for this fall. Thanks to generous philanthropists, a new state-of-the-art building will house the Manning Centre and become a “must-go” destination for conservatives of all stripes. Set in the heart of Calgary, it will contain a lecture theatre and a strategic planning centre for campaigns, as well as the latest communications and video conferencing technology. It will also be the home base of our newly redesigned School of Practical Politics which will help equip political activists with the skills they need. This is not only a Canadian first and a notable achievement for the movement – it’s also the culmination of a long-standing dream of mine.

Preston Manning CC

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This “annual report” on the state of the conservative movement includes three parts:

PART 1

BAROMETER POLL

An annual public opinion survey commissioned by the Manning Centre helps us understand Canadian attitudes towards the role of government and conservative ideas.

PART 2

ELECTORAL MAPS

An overview of the electoral performance of conservative-oriented political parties, as well as a look at potential supporters.

PART 3

CONSERVATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE

An examination of the current state of Canada’s conservative-oriented think tanks, advocacy groups, training programs, communications vehicles, and fundraising capabilities.

The report was prepared by Manning Centre Vice President Darrel Reid and Director of Communications Olivier Ballou. The polling data was gathered by Dr. Andre Turcotte. The electoral maps were created by data expert Mitch Wexler. The conservative infrastructure data was generated by researcher Joel Wiens.

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BAROMETER POLL THE MANNING CENTRE BAROMETER

is a snapshot of Canadian

attitudes towards government as well as conservative ideas. The first Barometer was conducted in 2010, and the Manning Centre intends to repeat this public opinion research annually in order to track Canadian attitudes over time.

To

spread

and

have an economic or social problem, a

policies, conservatives first need to

majority first mention themselves, their

know

family, and their community before they

where

conservative Canadians

ideas stand.

The

Manning Centre enlisted the help of

mention government.

public opinion expert Dr. Andre Turcotte to design this year’s survey. 2,067 online interviews were conducted between

GOVERNMENT AS FACILITATOR

February 10th-20th, 2012 (a margin of

So what, then, do these Canadians expect

error of 2.4%, 19 times out of 20)*.

of

government?

The

most

frequent

answer – across all regions and from The past two annual Manning Centre

both men and women – was that while

barometer polls found low levels of

people want to do things for themselves,

confidence in government’s ability to

they want government to “help” –

tackle big challenges. This year’s poll

sometimes by simply getting out of the

confirms our earlier findings. A majority

way, sometimes by leading as in matters

of Canadians have lost faith in “big

of personal and national security, but

government solutions to big problems”–

most often by “facilitating, enabling,

good news for those of us who want

and partnering with others to get

governments to do a few things well

things done.”

rather than attempting to do everything and succeeding at little. When Canadians are asked to whom they turn first if they

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*Full results are available at www.manningcentre.ca/poll


More than three in four Canadians believe into

that

the

governments

role

of

SUPPORT FOR “GOVERNMENT AS FACILITATOR”

moving

“facilitator”

Very negative

or

“partner” would constitute a “positive” development.

This

number

Somewhat negative

ranges

6%

Somewhat positive

Quebec. It also holds across party lines. poses

the

question:

If

14%

16%

from 66% in BC and Alberta to 82% in

This

Very positive

64%

not

government, then who? The charts below show which non-governmental entities Canadians think are best suited to help tackle various issues.

WHO SHOULD HELP GOVERNMENT DO A BETTER JOB? HELPING THE LESS FORTUNATE

DEALING WITH MORAL ISSUES 27%

Community orgs

16%

Charitable orgs Not-for-profit orgs

Interest groups

21% 19% 11%

15%

Community orgs

CHALLENGES OF AGING POPULATION

Individual Canadians

19%

Religious orgs

15%

Community orgs

21%

Individual Canadians

TOMORROW’S ECONOMIC CHALLENGES 22%

Members of financial sector

15%

Large corporations Small business owners

11%

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BAROMETER POLL MAINSTREAM CONSERVATISM Our previous research suggests that

and overly aligned with the interests

Canadians

aligning

of business. What does this mean?

themselves with a series of values

Conservatives have a lot of work left to

identified as “conservative”. In this

do to expand the movement. Solidifying

year’s poll, we wanted to test whether

and expanding our support begins with

this realignment was borne out in the

capitalizing on the clear conservative

perceptions

other

brand image: Conservatives are seen

words, how is “being a conservative”

as competent managers of the economy

viewed by respondents? The results

at the macro level. However, Canadians

While conservatives are

remain skeptical of the government’s

broadly seen as fiscally responsible,

ability to address their own issues at the

they are also perceived as self-serving

micro (personal) level.

are mixed.

are

of

increasingly

Canadians.

In

HOW CONSERVATIVES SEE THEMSELVES:

FISCALLY-RESPONSIBLE

SMALL GOVERNMENT PRO-BUSINESS TRADITIONAL VALUES

SELF-RELIANT

PRUDENT

HOW OTHERS SEE CONSERVATIVES:

CLOSE-MINDED

SELF-SERVING

FISCALLY-RESPONSIBLE WEALTHY PRO-BUSINESS STATUS QUO

TRADITIONAL VALUES

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The larger the word in the “word cloud” the more frequent the response.


DISGRUNTLED DEMOCRATS In last year’s survey we observed that a large portion of the electorate has become seriously disengaged from political parties, leaders, and elections. These voters do not believe politicians share their worldview, enter public life for the right reasons, or focus on the correct things once there. The results from this year’s survey were no more encouraging.

FEELING TOWARD POLITICIANS 1%

21%

50%

27%

2012 4%

42%

6%

34%

14%

1980 Very favourable

Somewhat favourable

Somewhat unfavourable

Very unfavourable

No opinion

In his address to the 2012 Networking Conference, Preston Manning outlined his concern about the declining trust in politics and those who participate in it. He argued for “the need for better training of political practitioners – in particular, training in ethical politics and the ethical use of the new political technologies from automated voter calling to the use of social media.”

OPPORTUNITIES • Canadians are ready to consider a new relationship with their government – that of “government as facilitator” • Find ways to better communicate. For example, make the link between Canada’s overall economic performance and people’s own circumstances • A host of potential supporters are within reach (see p.12) 9


ELECTORAL MAPS WINNING ELECTIONS

tells us how well conservative-oriented political

parties are getting their message across and winning support. While the Manning Centre Barometer analyzes the opinions of Canadians, electoral maps help us see how this translates into votes.

Conservatives

continue

show

However, all is not rosy. A family feud

improved electoral results in the past

in British Columbia may contribute to a

year, holding onto four governments

decrease in conservative representation.

(Yukon,

Newfoundland

Albertan voters have struggled to choose

and Labrador, and Alberta). There is an

which conservative vision to endorse.

opportunity for gains in Ontario when

In May 2012, the governing PCs won

the minority government in that province

another majority, although the Wildrose

falls. We are at or near a high-water

Alliance Party made substantial gains. In

mark, and the challenge for conservative-

Ontario, the PC Party failed to penetrate

oriented parties in the coming years

the Toronto area – including places

will be to improve upon that result or to

where the federal Conservatives had

prolong this peak.

made inroads. Finally, the newly formed

Saskatchewan,

to

Quebec CAQ party has disappointed many conservative-minded Quebecers.

CONSERVATIVE-ORIENTED FEDERAL AND PROV. PARTIES (AS OF MAY 2012) SEAT SHARE

VOTE SHARE

49.3%

38.8%

507/1028 total seats

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10.5 M votes

*“Conservative-oriented parties” refers to the federal Conservative Party, as well as the primary Conservative party in each province, with the exception of Alberta where the Wildrose Alliance Party is also included. It also includes the BC Liberals, Action Democratique du Québec (ADQ), as well as the Yukon Party.


GREATER VANCOUVER EDMONTON

PROV. ELECTIONS

CALGARY

✔ ✔

PROVINCIAL RIDINGS

WINNIPEG

NL: -6

PEI: +2

-100

-40 -25

-10 0

10

OTTAWA

25

40

100

MONTREAL

Conservative-oriented parties now hold over 500 federal, provincial, and territorial seats, seven of 12 governments, and 49.3 per cent of the 1028 combined seats across the country.

TORONTO

CONSERVATIVE MARGIN OF VICTORY

NO CHANGE IN SEATS

MB:

AB: +6 SK: +11 ON: +12

YK: +1

SINCE MAY 2011

✔ WIN +/- SEAT CHANGE

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ELECTORAL MAPS NEAR CUSTOMERS In order to win elections, conservatives

federal election results with results

must continue to identify new supporters.

from other elections and demographic

Demographic research commissioned by

data.

the Manning Centre shows that there

difference between federal Conservative

are untapped pools of “near customers”:

results and those of Toronto mayoralty

voters whose demographics, attitudes

candidate Rob Ford. We also looked

and past voting habits should predispose

at Conservative support among ethnic

them to support conservative-oriented

voters in Brampton West. This year

parties – but who do not consistently do

we continued our search for near

so. One way to identify these potential

customers, including a closer look at

supporters is to overlay maps showing

the BC Lower Mainland (see p.13).

Last

year

we

examined

the

HOW TO SPOT A NEAR CUSTOMER • Between the ages of 41 and 50

• Fully one-third did not vote in the last federal election

• High school or college educated

• 58% are interested in politics (only 14% have no interest in politics)

• Earns between $20 - $50K / year

• A significant group (21%) has only • Tend to equate being a conservative been in Canada between 4 and 8 years to “being slow to embrace change” • Even more likely than others to be selfreliant or turn to their families to find solutions to their problems

MORE NEAR CUSTOMERS URBAN GREENS

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NEW CANADIANS

BREAD AND BUTTER

Age 25-34, single or married with no kids

Strong work ethic and family values

Moderate income, often blue-collar

Caucasian, educated, high income

Eg. South Asian or Chinese Canadians

Vote on practical issues that directly affect them


2011 FEDERAL RESULTS In the last federal election, Conservatives continued to increase their support in the areas outside Vancouver while making gains inside the city. Both the NDP and CPC gained from the hollowing out of the Liberal vote.

CHINESE CANADIAN Increased support among Chinese Canadians helped Conservatives win the ridings of Vancouver South and Richmond.

BREAD AND BUTTER Mapping “Bread and Butter� (moderate income, blue-collar) Canadians paints a mixed picture, with these voters

LOW CPC SUPPORT

being from both low income and high income

HIGH CPC SUPPORT

areas and having weak party allegiances.

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CONSERVATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE

THERE ARE THE PARTIES, AND THEN THERE’S THE MOVEMENT Political parties organize majorities to win elections and pass legislation. The conservative movement promotes conservative principles and helps move the public onto conservative ground. Modern political parties are primarily

This

is

where

the

focused on running and winning the

infrastructure”

next election. Many of the ideas, people,

including conservative-oriented think

and communication vehicles for doing

tanks, policy centres, interest groups,

so must come from the movement.

training programs, and communication

comes

“conservative into

play

channels. While the main task of the conservative parties is to win elections, the main task of the movement is to build and maintain the infrastructure.

POLITICAL ACTIVISTS COMMUNICATIONS CAPACITY

TRAINED HUMAN RESOURCES

INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL

MONEY 14

Ways to get the message out, such as newspapers, TV and social media

Volunteers, staff, campaign managers, and candidates

A steady stream of ideas based on conservative values

The means to fund all of the above


AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT

MONEY

~$3B

In

2009-10,

approximately

$90

million was invested in conservative parties

($64M)

and

movement

activities ($30M)*. These amounts are minuscule in comparison with the annual expenditures of the American conservative movement or the annual investments in the legislatures and elections

CANADIAN LEGISLATURES AND ELECTIONS

Canadian

conservatives

seek to influence.

$1.2B

PARTIES

$64M MOVEMENT

$30M

*This number is based on data from charitable organizations that are required to declare their revenues, as well as the think tanks and advocacy groups that were willing to share their annual budgets. These funds come from sympathetic foundations, companies and individuals.

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CONSERVATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE The conservative movement relies on research institutes and think tanks for policy analysis and to generate and analyze ideas. A number of these have a conservative philosophical

IDEAS

bent, while acting independently of the parties. Surveys by the Manning Centre of the perceived strengths and weaknesses of conservative intellectual capital suggest a need to strengthen conservative positions on the environment, arts and culture, science and technology, and social assistance.

INTELLECTUAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES Aboriginal Affairs

Family and Community

Agriculture and Agri-business

Federalism and Intergovernmental Affairs

Arts and Culture

Fisheries and Oceans

Budget and Taxation

Health

Cities and Infrastructure

Human Resources and Labour

Citizenship and Immigration

International Cooperation

Commerce and Industry

International Trade

Courts, Constitution and Charter

National Defence and Foreign Affairs

Crime and Justice

Public Service

Democracy

Religion and Society

Economic and Political Theory

Science and Technology

Education

Social Assistance

Environment and Natural Resources

Transportation

Substantial activity

Moderate activity

Limited activity

COMMUNICATIONS A significant development in the past year has been the arrival of Sun News Network – featuring many overtly conservative commentators. Also notable has been the increased prominence of right-of-centre views on mainstream Quebec TV and tabloid newspapers. C2C, the conservative electronic journal, also continues to serve an important function.

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TRAINING The mission of the Manning Centre is to equip political activists with the skills

OUR STUDENTS

they need to participate fully in Canada’s

• Volunteers

democratic process, including winning

• Campus activists

elections.

• Constituency workers

In

last

year’s

report,

we

noted the lack of training opportunities for conservatives. This year, we are proud to announce the launch of our newly redesigned School of Practical Politics, whose purpose is to identify, inspire and train the next generation of political entrepreneurs. The school will be based in a new stateof-the-art

facility set in the heart

of Calgary – the Manning Centre for

• Campaign workers • Those affiliated with think tanks and interest groups • Future candidates

2011-12 PLANNED COURSES • Student Activism • Navigating critical sociopolitical intersections:

Democratic Education. Courses will also

• Business-Politics

be offered online and across the country.

• Faith-Politics • Economy-Environment • Building & Managing a Grassroots Organization • Political Fundraising and Investment • Campaign Management: • Issue Campaigns • Electoral Campaigns (Municipal, Provincial & Federal)

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ABOUT US The Manning Centre for Building Democracy is a federally registered non-profit organization founded in 2005 by Preston and Sandra Manning.

VISION

VALUES The Manning Centre’s vision and mission are informed by the following values: •

Individual liberty, dignity, and responsibility

Free markets, freedom of choice, and limited government

The wisdom of living within our means financially and ecologically

Respect for Canada’s cultural, religious, and democratic traditions

Recognition of the relevance and limitations of science

best served by the application of

Strong families and communities

conservative

Care for those who cannot care for themselves

Decentralized power and delivery of services

Principled and prepared leadership

An informed, deliberative citizenry

Democratic citizen participation in the governance of our public affairs

We embrace a vision of Canada strong and free; a people united in common purpose to serve our inalienable and inherent right to life, liberty, and property. We believe that Canada’s purposes and the needs of Canadians are principles

to

public

policies – principles rooted first in liberty,

dignity,

responsibility,

and

tradition. We envision a free and democratic Canada where political entrepreneurs have the courage, skills, knowledge, ideas, win

and

public

campaigns

conservative

support

and

to

implement

solutions

to

the

challenges of our times.

The Manning Centre recognizes and accepts various regional and philosophical dimensions to

Canadian

conservatism.

Rather

than

championing just one of these dimensions to

MISSION

the exclusion of the others, the Manning Centre is

To

identify,

political

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develop,

and

entrepreneurs

support

who

committed

to

seeking

common

ground,

resolving contradictions, and finding ways for

can

conservatives of all ideological and regional

advance our common vision of a free

backgrounds to work together toward common

and democratic Canada.

objectives.


YOUR FEEDBACK How do YOU see the state of the movement? How can we improve this report to make it more useful to all participants in Canada’s conservative movement? Give us your feedback at:

www.manningcentre.ca/feedback

VIDEO: BUILD ON THE TRADITION

Watch our short film: “Build on the Tradition” which reminds us that small-c conservative principles are part of Canada’s heritage: www.manningcentre.ca/video

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State of Canada's Conservative Movement (2012)