ELLEN FRANCISCO One of Coldwell Bankers top agents, with over 36 years of experience in Malibu
I have been here since 1970 and lost a home in 1978 fire in the broadbeach area, so I have been through that process and have been through all the Malibu fires since then. How do you foresee the Woolsey Fire affecting the Malibu real estate market in the long term? Short term? Malibu will build back and it will be better than ever. Surprisingly people have very short memories (those that were not here during the fire and immediately after) and when they come here in a couple of years they will see new homes, re-imerging landscape and the devastation that you see today will be gone. It has happened after evey fire. There will be a lull in the market, many homes that have been for sale are now going to be leased for one - two years to fill the demand for temporary housing. People are already calling about purchasing land where people are not going to re-build. Because this fire affected so many people and so many people who have lived here for many years, it is unknown how many people will re-build and how many people will sell their land after settling with the insurance company. When my husband
and I lost our home in 1978 we were in our 30â€™s and there was no question that we would rebuild, but many of those who lost their homes have been here for 40 - 55 years+ and may not have the stamina to re-build. it is not an easy process. What real estate trends do you foresee in 2019? There is so much going on (politically, fire aftermath) that we have yet to understand where the market will go in 2019, but Malibu is still and will always be a desirable place to be and people will always want to move here. For the same reason that many people will re-build, they donâ€™t want to leave. It is our community and we love it. How will the fire impact the rental market in Malibu? It has already impacted the rental market. It is difficult to find homes for $15,000 and under, but there are alot of homes still available above that pricing. I fear some Landlords have gotten a bit too aggressive in their pricing. The rental market was somewhat soft prior to the fire, but obviously supply and demand has MM taken over.
MARCUS BECK A lifelong Malibu resident, Beck has over 30 years of industry experience.
To provide a little background on Malibu real estate, we break down sales by those on the beach (including bluff homes) and those off the beach (land side homes). Traditionally approximately 2/3 of our annual sales are homes not on the beach, and this is where we have had the largest loss of homes from the fire. In the short term, we have already seen a dramatic increase in the number of homes for Lease and it is premature to know the effect on sales. From personal experience, I had a property in Escrow prior to the fire with all contingencies removed for the purchase; however, with the adjacent home being lost in the fire, the buyer wanted to re-inspect the property including air quality sampling. It is obviously a very emotional time for those who lost their homes, but it also impacts those whose homes survived along with potential buyers. In the long run, Malibu is an extremely desirable international destination and will continue to be so. I anticipate a decrease in sales volume in the next year, and possibly a small decrease in average sales price across the board. However, as the community heals, and progress begins with the
clean-up and re-development of the impacted communities, I foresee an upward adjustment of average sales prices for homes. What I think are more relevant long-range questions are: 1) What percentage of those who lost their homes will rebuild in the next 2 to 4 years? And, 2) How many new homes may hit the market, and how many vacant lots may become available? Over the next 2 to 5 years, these two questions may influence the average sales price in Malibu, and you could argue for values going in either direction. My hope is the re-development with newer homes will have a positive impact for Malibu overall. As a side note, we have had many years with increasing real estate values and recognize real estate goes in cycles. The opinion given is solely on how the Woolsey Fire may impact values in the sort and long term, and does not take into account current markets trends, national and international economies, and how those impact the overall real MM estate market.
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