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Labour Market Information Implementation Project

Analysis of Listuguj Mi’gmaq Labour Force & Surrounding Labour Markets

Summary report May 18, 2011


TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 – INTRODUCTION

2

2 - METHODOLOGY, DEFINITIONS & LIMITATIONS 2.1 METHODOLY & DATABASE UPDATE 2.2 KEY DEFINITIONS 2.3 LIMITATIONS

4 4 5 5

3 OVERVIEW OF LABOUR MARKET TRENDS 3.1 CANADA 3.2 QUÉBEC & GASPÉSIE & LES ÎLES DE LA MADELEINE 3.3 NEW BRUNSWICK & NORTHEAST (INCLUDING RESTIGOUCHE)

6 6 6 11

4 - LISTUGUJ LABOUR FORCE PROFILE 4.1 DEMOGRAPHICS 4.1.1 AGE & GENDER 4.1.2 SPOKEN LANGUAGES 4.1.3 SPOKEN LANGUAGES BY AGE GROUPS 4.2 EDUCATION 4.2.1 HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION FOR TOTAL CLIENTS 4.2.2HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION BY GENDER 4.2.3 EDUCATION LEVELS BY GENDER & AGE GROUPS 4.3 EMPLOYMENT 4.3.1 EMPLOYED VS NOT EMPLOYED 4.3.2EMPLOYMENT BY GENDER 4.3.3 INCOME STATUS BY AGE GROUPS 4.3.4 INCOME STATUS BY EDUCATION LEVELS & AGE GROUPS 4.4 OCCUPATIONS & W ORK EXPERIENCE 4.4.1 LABOUR FORCE BY OCCUPATION GROUPS 4.4.2 LABOUR FORCE BY WORK EXPERIENCE

16 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 18 19 20 20 21 19 23 23 24

5 – OBSERVATIONS AND POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES

25

6 - CONCLUSION

28

7 - REFERENCES

28

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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1 – INTRODUCTION The purpose of this report is to compile Labour Market Information (LMI) for the two regions surrounding and including the Listuguj Mi’gmaq community in Listuguj, Quebec. The two aforementioned regions would be Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, in the province of Quebec, and the northeastern portion of New Brunswick including Campbellton and the surrounding municipalities. The report gives a quick overall outlook on the employment situation in Canada, and is then broken down to look at the two different provincial situations. The province of Quebec is where the report begins, and then continues on to review New Brunswick. Comparisons are then made to see what the common trends are nationally and provincially. After this national and provincial review, the report turns its eye to examine the two specific regions. The report will show what industries in the regions are showing positive future trends, which are showing negative trends, what occupations are going to be in demand in the near future, and what occupations will have an excess supply of labour. The industries and occupations will be broken down and explored in order to have an overall viewpoint on the labour market from which informed decisions can be made on what direction to take when looking at education and employment for the members of the Listuguj Mi’gmaq community.

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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2 - METHODOLOGY, DEFINITIONS & LIMITATIONS 2.1 Methodology & database update This analysis report was producing by using two main sources of information: a. Primary data collected through LMDC’s client management system Aboriginal Labour Market Adaptation Support System (ALMASS). This information was analyzed to produce section 4 of this report called Listuguj profile. b. Secondary data collected through external sources of information such as; sectorial reports, Labour Market Information (LMI) websites & others. This information was analyzed to produce section 3 of this report called Overview of Labour Market Trends. Through the efforts of this project, a majority of Listuguj’s Labour Force Information was updated. The following table demonstrates a high representation of each age group in the ALMASS system based on data provided by Indian and Northern Affairs Canada’s (INAC) Indian Registry System (IRS). In some cases, Listuguj has more counts in ALMASS than what is projected by INAC. This is due to the fact that in some cases, members left the community (ex: U.S.A.) at some point and may have returned to Listuguj, throughout the years, and registered back into the Labour Force. th

From the total of 1395 client files in ALMASS, (as of March 5 ) more than 96% were updated, to different st, degrees, since January 1 2010. Therefore, with such proportions, the author believes in the high validity of the information presented in this report.

LABOUR FORCE – FILES UPDATES (as of May18, 2011) On reserve Only AGE GROUPS

INAC COUNT 2010

ALMASS COUNT

% ALMASS vs INAC

15-24

439

352

80%

25-34

249

267

107%

35-44

278

274

99%

45-54

270

283

105%

55-64

163

159

98%

65-69

50

28

56%

Total

1449

1363

94%

Note: More than 96% of the 1363 records in ALMASS have been updated since May 18, 2011

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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2.2 Key Definitions The following are some useful definitions that need to be understood before reading this report. a) Listuguj’s Labour Force: population between 15 to 69 years old available for work. Students are not considered as part of the Labour Force as they are not yet available for work. It was determined by LMDC that the 65-69 age group would be considered as part of the Labour Force because a high proportion of that age group is still active in the labour market. b) Employment rate: The employment rate is a key indicator to determine a population’s prosperity in terms of Labour Market activity. It is calculated using this formula: Employment rate =

Number of employed people

X 100

Population of 15 + c) Gaspésie & Iles de la Madeleine and Northeast NB: The regional date collected in the report refers to the entire region of Gaspésie & Iles de la Madeleine and Northeast New Brunswick since most of the data available is presented in that perspective. The regions represented are illustrated below.

2.3 Limitations Because of the constant changing nature of information in our world, day after day, many factors have impacts on Labour Market Information (ex: new jobs, job cuts, newcomers in the community, deaths etc.) It is recommended to always use the information very cautiously as data changes each minute. All information in this report should be considered and understood as trends, approximations and / or estimates.

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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3

OVERVIEW OF LABOUR MARKET TRENDS

3.1 Canada There are a number of issues that will have huge effects on future labour market trends, not only nationally, but also provincially and regionally. They are: an aging population, the economic situation, an ever changing Canadian dollar rate, and increased competition. The labour market was hit hard with the recent economic downturn, and the Canadian labour market could not avoid the turmoil. Employment levels fell in 2009 following sixteen years of increases. However, the country was able to get some of those jobs back that were lost in 2010. Due to the rising Canadian dollar, increased competition from low wage countries, and the economic downturn, the manufacturing sector was hit hard and demand for products from Canada decreased. Job losses in manufacturing predated the downturn. The manufacturing industry, whether it is food and beverage production, print, wood products, plastics, machinery or transportation equipment is forever trying to streamline their processes in order to be more competitive. This usually means heavy capital investments at the cost of their human capital. The recession only multiplied the effects in manufacturing, resulting in the lowest level of employment in this sector since 1976. With the aging population, and the aging of the workforce, there is going to be an increase in the need for health care and social assistance services.

3.2 Québec & Gaspésie & les Iles de la Madeleine Quebec In 2010, Quebec’s unemployment rate (8%) was the same as Canada’s rate. Meanwhile, the provincial employment rate (60.2%) was lower than the national rate (61.6%). Economic growth in Quebec will be affected by both the change in population and the recovery from the 20082009 crises. Since 2009, there have been more retirements than there have been young people entering the workforce to replace them, and this situation will continue for several decades. However, contrary to most other provinces in Canada, births increased recently in the province. According to forecasts for Quebec, the number of jobs should increase in the next five years. Some sectors in particular will continue to struggle to varying degrees: agriculture, fishing, manufacturing textiles and textile products, clothes and leather products, paper, printing and furniture. These sectors have or have played a significant role in the economies of Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine and Northeastern New Brunswick. On the other hand, a couple of areas in the manufacturing sector should be pretty prosperous in the coming years: construction and durable goods manufacturing industries. Between now and 2014, goods producing industries should see an increase of workers, but fishing and agriculture should see further cuts. When the American housing market will pick up, more houses will be built and demand for our lumber should increase. In the secondary sector, developments in the energy industry with wind farms, as well as spending on infrastructure and other major projects, will create new positions. The services sector in Quebec has the brightest outlook. The growth to be expected in the services sector will account for approximately 87% of the total growth in employment, with the health and social services sector LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

Page | 6


leading the way due to the older population increasing demand for the services, and also the large number of retirements. Other service sector industries to see gains are professional services, scientific and technical, and retail trade. The finance, insurance, real estate and leasing industries will fair pretty well. Some industries in Quebec will not see great job creation, but they do have a large number of older workers which will be retiring in the coming years, creating high employment demand. There will be significant retirements in the public sector including, education, and public administration. The same situation is expected in the primary sector, metal fabrication and transformation, and transportation. More than 50,000 new jobs are forecasted each year over the next three years. After the swift increase, the growth rate will slow down due to the big number of positions being filled due to retirements. The following table shows that one third of the job growth expected between 2009 and 2019 would be in professional occupations (Level A) requiring university education. Almost the same proportion of jobs will be in technical occupations (Level B) requiring college education. The 30,000 job growth in elementary jobs, which represents 8% of the total job growth, will mostly be in the service industry, namely cashiers, servers, and kitchen help.

Skill Level 0 - Management A - Professional B - Technical

Predicted job growth for 2009-2019 in Quebec 22,000 120,000 112,000

C - Intermediate 82,000 D - Elementary 30,000 Total 366,000 Source: Emploi Québec 2009

% of total job growth 6% 33% 31% 22% 8% 100%

Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine The Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine region is predominantly resource based. With resource depletion, competition from economies with cheaper labour, the rising Canadian dollar, rising energy costs, the lack of specialized labour, and the aging workforce, the region is facing some major challenges. The population of the area was down 10% through two censuses, and indicated an exodus of young people. In 2010, the region’s unemployment rate stood at 14.8%, much higher than the provincial rate of 8%. The region’s unemployment rate was down by 0.9 points in 2010 compared to 2009, but there was almost no change in the number of unemployed people. Meanwhile, the region’s employment rate was 46.3% compared to 60.2% in Quebec as a whole. There were 2,000 more people employed in the Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine region and the employment rate rose by 2.6 points

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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Proportion %

Unemployment Rate 2009 & 2010

20 15 10 5 0

15,7

14,8 8,5

8,0

2009

2010

Gaspésie & les Iles

Québec

Proportion %

Employment Rate 2009 & 2010

80 60 40 20 0

60,2

59,8 46,3

43,7

2009 Gaspésie & les Iles

2010 Québec

The region should see a modest increase in jobs between 2010 and 2014, and the unemployment rate will dip slightly, but will remain the highest in Quebec at around 14%. It is the only region to be above 10%.

Occupational Outlook in Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine The following table provides an outlook for some occupations in the region.

Short Term Employment Prospects for Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine Occupation Managers, Office clerks Accountants, Financial analysts, Financial planners, Human resources specialists Engineers, Consultation and environmental assessment work Health occupations

Employment Potential Limited Good Good, due to wind farms. Good

School teachers

Fair

Psychologists, Social Workers, Counselors, Clergy, Program officers, Researchers and Consultants

Fair

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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Instructors in recreation, sport and fitness, and Graphic designers and Illustrators Occupations in sales and services Police and Correction officers Trucks drivers, Automotive service technicians, Truck and bus mechanics, Mechanical repairers and Heavy equipment operators Occupations unique to primary industries (fishing and forestry) Fish and forestry processing

Fair Fair Good Fair Poor Limited

Source: Service Canada, Occupational Outlook 2010-2012-Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine

Job growth in management occupations will be negligible in this category from now until 2012. Over 95% of the 400 openings will stem from retirements. A third of the jobs in this category are in retail trade. The general office clerk occupation will have a limited outlook, as employers will generally look for greater flexibility among future employees. With more and more automation, employees are more efficient, and now new employees will be expected to perform more tasks. Business management and administrative support, professional, scientific and technical services and utilities are expected to experience strong growth owing to the construction of various wind farms. Growth will be strongest in professional occupations such as accountants, financial analysts, financial planners and human resources specialists. For the group as a whole, job opportunities will be favourable; it is expected that 500 people will retire and 90 new jobs will be created by 2012. The construction of wind farms will be favourable to engineers, research, consultation and environmental assessment work. These positions usually require highly specialized skills from college or university. About 140 positions should open up by 2012 with 60% due to retirement. Employment in health occupations is expected to grow by an average of 2.1% a year. By 2012, about 630 positions will need to be filled, and about 400 of them are due to retirement. High demand, low unemployment and quota systems for a large number of training programs leading to health occupations, will translate into good employment opportunities. Now looking at the social science, education, government service and religion groups, roughly 11% of workers were employed in this group, representing 3,900 people. Employment growth will be positive for most in this group except for teachers. School population should hold steady owing to the high birth rate in recent years, and the smaller ratio of students to teachers should shore up employment levels in this occupation. The outlook for teachers will be acceptable because of the large number of teachers retiring. The outlook for the majority of psychologists, social workers, counselors and clergy as well as policy and program officers, researchers and consultants is fair, even good for some. Between 2010-2012 period, about 400 jobs will be available in this category, including 300 due to retirement. Given the small number of jobs in the art, culture, recreation and sport group, there will be few openings in spite of growth above the regional average. In the near future, only 120 positions will need to be filled, and of those, 90 will be due to retirement. The majority of jobs in the category are in two occupational groups: program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness, and graphic designers and illustrators. The outlook for these occupations is fair. Sales and service jobs represent the largest occupational group in the region. Nearly 60% of these occupations are in retail trade, accommodation and food services. Local businesses will have to fill close to 800 positions, including almost 650 due to retirements. A large number of sales and service jobs are seasonal, as many employers are in the tourism industry. LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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Accommodation and food services would be the hardest hit, and would have a negative impact on the outlook. The outlook is fair for most other occupations in this category, but the outlook is good for police and corrections officers. Due to the nature of the jobs, turnover will create many opportunities, which accounts for a major difficulty faced by employers. There are about 5,000 workers in the trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations category. In spite of the poor outlook for most occupations in the group, they can still expect to have to fill 650 positions by 2012. The outlook for transport and heavy equipment operators is fair. This group includes truck drivers, automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers, as well as heavy equipment operators. Transportation related to the construction of wind farms will boost the outlook for a number of occupations, including transportation equipment mechanics and truck drivers. By 2012, occupations in the construction industry should be in better shape owing to the civil and road engineering and residential construction industries. With the unemployment being high in this category, the outlook is not great even with a large number of retirements. With about 2,300 people, or 6.5% of the workers, occupations unique to the primary industry are three times more than the province as a whole. Because of the state of the resources, the strong Canadian dollar and competition from low-wage countries, the outlook is rather gloomy for most occupations in this group. The number of workers in the fishery segment should decline in the future, and because of the large pool on unemployed workers, any opening resulting from retirements will result in tough competition. Between now and 2012, the outlook is weak with maybe 150 positions to fill due to retirement or death. About 1,200 people were in occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities. Negative growth is expected in occupations with the largest workforces, leading to fewer opportunities in this category as a whole. With only about 170 openings, mostly due to retirement and death, and a high unemployment rate, the outlook is not great. Included in this category are fish processing and forestry products. Both of which have been discussed earlier in the report. The outlook for natural resources processing is limited, and the outlook will be acceptable only for a minority of these occupations. Most of the jobs are seasonal, and any positive in the industries would probably only result in a longer season and not more employment.

Industrial Outlook in Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine

Short Term Employment Growth for Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine Industry Fishing Agriculture Forestry Mining Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Information, culture and recreation Accommodation and food services Repair & maintenance, personal & laundry, social organizations and private households Professional, scientific and technical services Transportation and warehousing LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

Employment Growth Decline Positive, due to aquaculture Slight increase Positive Modest Positive (strong) Positive (low) Positive (low) Positive (low) Modest Positive (strong) Positive (strong) Page | 10


Utilities Educational services Health care and Social assistance services Public administration

Positive Decline Positive (strong) Stable

3.3 New Brunswick & Northeast (including Restigouche) New Brunswick In 2010, New Brunswick’s unemployment rate (9.3%) was higher than Canada’s (8.0%). Also, the provincial employment rate (57.7%) was lower than the national rate (61.6%) and the second lowest in the country. Compared to 2009, employment growth was strongest in the construction industry and in the retail and wholesale trade industry. As was the case for Quebec, New Brunswick was also affected by the economic downturn. Major cuts were made in the manufacturing sector before the recession due to a strong Canadian dollar, increased competition and plants that were using old technology. The other primary industries were also affected. Cuts to the crab fishing quota will have an impact on the industry. However, the mining sector is doing better with metal prices up around the world. Construction got a boost from government funding, but this should come to an end this year. The following table shows that between 2009 and 2018, technical jobs requiring college education will account for 31% of total job growth. Intermediate jobs requiring secondary school education and on the job training will represent 30% of total employment growth in the province. Professional jobs, which need university education, will also grow significantly and account for almost a quarter of job growth (23%).

Predicted job growth for 2009-2018 in N.B. 0 - Management 6,000 A - Professional 15,000 B - Technical 20,000 C - Intermediate 19,000 D - Elementary 4,000 Total 64,000 Source: Labour Market Information Monthly Skill Level

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

% of total job growth 9% 23% 31% 30% 6% 100%

Page | 11


Northeast New Brunswick When looking at New Brunswick and the Northeastern part of the province, the situation is not that much different than in Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine. The working age population is getting older, and is shrinking at the same time. More young people are moving out of the area, only to make the aging workforce more pronounced. In 2010, the Northeast’s unemployment rate (16.0%) was almost twice as high as New Brunswick’s rate (9.3%). The region’s unemployment rate rose by 1.1 points in 2010 compared to 2009, with about 500 more unemployed people. Also, the provincial employment rate (57.7%) was higher than the region’s rate (45.4%). There were 2,400 fewer people employed and the Northeast’s employment rate fell by 1.4 points. The Northeast had the highest unemployment rate and the lowest employment rate in the province.

Proportion %

Unemployment rate 2009 & 2010

20 15 10 5 0

16,0

14,9

9,3

8,8

2009

2010

North-East

New Brunswick

Proportion %

Employment rate 2009 & 2010

80 60 40 20 0

58,6 46,8

55,7 45,4

2009 North-East

2010 New Brunswick

The Northeast has not weathered the most recent recession very well and for some indicators, the recovery period has been even worse. Labour force and employment levels have been going down and unemployment rates have generally been high, while participation rates and employment rates have been dropping both during and after the recession. LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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Occupational Outlook in Northeast New Brunswick The following table shows short term employment prospects for some occupations in the Northeast.

Short Term Employment Prospects for Northeastern New Brunswick Occupation Employment Potential School Teachers and Assistants, Early Childhood Educators and Assistants, College and University Limited Instructors Social Service Workers, Nurse Aides, Orderlies, LPNs, Radiation Technologists, Lab Technicians, RNs and Head Nurses, Physiotherapists, Audiologists and Good Speech Pathologists, Optometrists, Dentists, GPs, Specialists Limited for Clerks, Secretaries, and Inspectors, Biologists, Police Officers, Computer and Biologists. Good for Police Officers, Network Operators, Civil Engineers, Data Entry and Inspectors, Computer and Network Office Clerks, HR Specialists, Secretaries Operators, Engineers, HR Specialists Mail and Postal Clerks, Shippers and Receivers, Truck Drivers, Managers, Bus Drivers Insurance Agents and Brokers, Financial Services Customer Service Reps, Employment Insurance, Financial and Investment Analysts, Financial Managers, Banking Managers Computer Programmers and Engineers, Software Engineers Sales Representative - wholesale trade Supervisors, Managers, Heavy Duty Equipment Mechanics, Nursery workers, Butchers, Sales Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers, Customer Service, Information Clerks, Telephone Operators Chefs, Cooks, Accommodation Service Managers Graphic Designers, Engineers

Drafting

Techs,

Mechanical

Good for Truck Drivers. Limited for the rest. Limited

Good Good Limited Limited Limited for chefs. Good for cooks and managers. Good

Ministers of Religion, Barbers, Hairstylists, Electronic Service Technicians

Good

Plasterers, Painters, Trades helpers, Concrete finishers, Bricklayers, Steamfitters, Carpenters, Plumbers, Electricians, Heavy Equipment Operators

Limited

Electrical and Electronics Engineers and Engineering Technologists, Mechanical Engineering Technologists, Manufacturing Managers

Good for Electrical Engineers and Technologists. Limited for others

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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Construction Millwrights and Industrial Mechanics, Industrial Electricians Fish Plant Workers, Bakers Farmers, Farm Managers, Harvesting Labourers, General Farm Workers

Few openings, weak market in forest and paper products Limited Limited for Harvesters and Labourers. Demand for Farmers and managers.

In public services, the only reason there will be any movement in education is due to the large number of retirements. As was the case for New Brunswick and Quebec, positions will be cut, but many positions for teachers, and teacher assistants, early childhood educators will become available due to attrition (retirements). The health care and social assistance services sector will have openings. The area’s population is getting older, and the demand for health care and social assistance services is increasing. Coupled with the aging population and the aging health care workforce, there is a positive outlook. According to Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, employment potential is good for everything from nurse aides and orderlies to Licensed Practical Nurses (LPNs), Registered Nurses (RNs), and nurse managers to technologists and technicians to physiotherapists, dentists, general practitioners and specialist physicians. Social workers were the only group with limited potential. In public administration, most occupations require a good amount of education. Police officers, computer and network operators, civil engineers, HR managers and specialists are included in this industry. There is good employment potential for all except for the secretaries, data entry and office clerks. In production services, transportation and warehousing will have a tough time. Limited opportunities will be seen for shippers and receivers, as well as for mail, postal and related clerks, and bus drivers and transit operators. There will, however, be a demand for truck drivers as there are a large number of them reaching retirement age. The finance, insurance, real estate and leasing industry will see limited potential even with the low unemployment rates in the industry. For professional, scientific and technical services, there is good potential with low or no unemployment for computer programmers and computer engineers, as well as software engineers. The same can be said about professional business services, including graphic designers, drafting technologists, and mechanical engineers. Retail trade will see limited job potential for a number of occupations. Retail store managers, and supervisors as well as salespeople will see limited potential. There is also limited potential for nursery workers and butchers, who find themselves in the same category. The only positive potential is for pharmacists. The majority of pharmacists are in the retail sector, with a smaller proportion in the health and social services sector. The accommodation and food services industry is highly seasonal, which results in high unemployment rates. There is limited potential for chefs. There is a good potential for cooks and managers, but unemployment in both categories will make for good competition when openings do come about. The construction industry will see demand for some occupations. With a couple of big government announcements, $13 million for the École Régionale de Balmoral and another $8 million for the Polyvalente Roland Pepin (PRP) in Campbellton, there will be a demand in the construction industry. There will be a demand for industrial electricians, plumbers and carpenters especially in the spring. The employment potential for construction managers, industrial electricians is good, but is limited for plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, as well as painters and decorators. It is also limited for concrete finishers, ironworkers, carpenters, plumbers, electricians (except industrial electricians), and heavy equipment operators. The manufacturing industry has seen a downward trend for years now, even before the recession. In order to stay competitive, many manufacturers are investing in new technologies and cutting positions. LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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The pulp and paper industry in the area has been hit hard. The forestry sector all together is seeing very lean times in the Northeast. There are few openings in the industry, but there is low unemployment. The majority of industrial mechanics and industrial electricians in the Northeast are found in this category. The food and beverage production industry would include bakers and fish plant workers. Neither of them are in high demand, and both have high unemployment rates. Northern New Brunswick is dependent on the primary sector and natural resource extraction as is the GaspĂŠsieIles-de-la-Madeleine region. The primary sector is struggling, with the appreciation of the Canadian dollar and increased competition from low wage countries. The agriculture industry will see openings for Farmers and Farm managers, as was mentioned earlier, but the labourers and harvesters, which are seasonal have high unemployment rates and limited potential.

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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4- LISTUGUJ LABOUR FORCE PROFILE Section 4 provides an analysis of four main areas in regards to Listuguj Labour Force: Demographics, Education, Employment & Work experience.

4.1 Demographics The following section will look at different characteristics of the Listuguj’s Labour Force such as: age, gender & spoken languages.

4.1.1 Age & gender

Numbers

The two graphics below provides a visual of Listuguj’s Labour Force age structure. The graphs illustrate the emergence of a large number of younger people (between 15 and 24 years old) entering the labour force. In comparison, this group represents a larger group than the older generations currently in the workforce.

Age Distribution by Gender

50 40 30 20 10 0 15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Age Male

Female

Total

This bar chart provides another perspective of Listuguj’s Labour Force by presenting the different age groups by gender (male and female). Again, the graph numbers illustrate the increased number of Labour Force being in the 15-24 age range compared to the other groups. Male workers also have a higher population in each of the age groups.

Numbers

People by Age Group

500 400 300 200 100 0

338 178 169

15-24

150119

298

285

274

151 158

25-34

35-44

145138

45-54

165 84 75

55-64

15 6 35

65-69

Age groups Male LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

Female

Total Page | 16


4.1.2 Spoken languages Three languages are commonly spoken by the Listuguj’s Labour Force: English, Mi’gmaq & French. English is widely spoken as all of the population speaks the language. Mi’gmaq is the second language of importance as more than 396 of its Labour Force says they can speak it. Finally, French is the third language of importance with 232 people speaking it.

Spoken Languages Mi'g Maq

French

232

396

4.1.3 Spoken languages by age groups This bar chart presents the spoken language numbers by age groups. Mi’gmaq is spoken to a certain level but appears to be replaced by French with the younger generations.

Spoken Language by Age Group 152

160 140

124

Numbers

120 100

79

76

80 60 40 20

49

19

43

26

26

21 11

2

0 15-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-69

Age groups Mi'g Maq

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

Fench

Page | 17


4.2 Education This section provides a general overview of Listuguj’s Labour Force level of education and its relationship with elements such as age and gender.

4.2.1 Highest Level of education for total clients Almost half of the Labour Force in Listuguj does not have a high school diploma (46%). Close to a quarter of the Labour Force (23%) have a High School diploma or a General Education Development Certificate as their highest level of education. The remaining 31% have Postsecondary education diplomas or certificates coming from collegial, vocational or university programs.

Highest Level of Education 6%

0% 3% 1%

7% Less than High School HS diploma or GED College Training & Certificate

46%

14%

Vocationnal Training & Certificate University Training & Certificate Bachelor's Degree Master's Degree Doctorate

23%

4.2.2 Education Levels by age groups This section presents an overview of the highest levels of Education by age groups. Students are not included in these statistics.

Level of Education by Age Group Percentage

100 80 60 40 20

63

59

55 43

38

5 2 0 1 0 0

29 28 18 11 8

5

26 2021 1111

7

0 0

1719 12 3 0

7

2 0 0

1113 8

3 6 1 0

8

13

8 8 0 0 0

0 15-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-69

Age groups LMI Analysis Report LMDC – May 2011 Less–than High School Vocationnal Training & Certificate

HS diploma or GED University Training & Certificate

Master's Degree

Doctorate

Page | 18 College Training & Certificate Bachelor's Degree


4.2.3 Highest level of education by gender When looking at the chart education levels by gender, it is obvious that men tend to drop out of school more than women. Females seem to pursue their education longer than males. In fact, 43% of women have a postsecondary education diploma compared to 36% for men.

Percentage

Highest Level of Education by Gender 100 80 60 40 20 0

45

33

20 24

12 17

Less than HS diploma High School or GED

7 10

7 9

College Vocationnal University Training & Training & Training & Certificate Certificate Certificate

11 6

0.4 1

0.1 0.2

Bachelor's Degree

Master's Degree

Doctorate

Level of Education Male

Female

4.2.4 Education levels & Income status This section outlines the relationship between Education levels of clients and their income status. One trend is certainly obvious: clients with higher levels of education have had more success in securing employment.

Education and Income Status 100

Percentage

80 60 40 20

65 52

48 2623

2322 2 5

52

30

63

50

30 22 17

17 5

171617

15 6 3

3 0

12 1

4

12 8

1313 13 0

2

0 Less than High HS diploma or School GED

College Training & Certificate

Vocationnal Training & Certicate

University Training & Certificate

Bachelor's Degree

Master's degree

Doctorate

Level of Education Employed

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

EI

SAR

Students

Others

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4.3 Employment This section analyzes the employment situation for Listuguj in relation with different factors such as: age groups, gender, income status and education levels.

4.3.1 Employed vs not employed The following chart provides an overview of the general employment situation for Listuguj’s Labour Force by age groups. The group with the strongest employment ratio is within the 65-69 age group with 46% of its Labour Force employed. The weakest ratios are within the youngest generations. The 15-24 and the 25-34 year age groups have respectively 13% and 35% of its Labour Force employed. Overall, 37% of the population in Listuguj was employed at the time of this report.

Labour Force by Age Group 100

Percentage

80 65

60

55

56

56

54

45

44

44

46

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-69

63

87

40 20 0

35

37

13

15-24

25-34

Total

Age groups

Employed

Not Employed

4.3.2 Employment rate by gender The following graph on employment rate by gender shows that generally women tend to do better in the Labour Market. Women in the 35-44 and 55-64 age groups show the strongest employment rates (52% and 57% respectively). Only men in the (15-24 and 45-54) year age group and the 65-69 year age group had higher employment rate than women.

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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Employment Rate by Gender

Percentage

100 52

50

30.0 30 9.0

48.0

36.0

57 39

32.0

41.0 23

6

0 15-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-69

Age groups Male

Female

4.3.3 Income status by age groups The following chart shows the age groups and their income status (source of revenue). The first bar (blue) shows a higher proportion of employed clients in the older generations. From the second bar, the proportion of clients on Employment Insurance (in orange) is similar from age group to age group ranging from 7% to 27%. The 15-24 year age group is much lower (7%). People in this group are not as active on the labour market compared to the older generations. The third bar (green) illustrates the proportions of clients receiving Social Assistance. Proportions are higher for the 15-24 year age group but tend to get lower as age of clients increases. The proportion of students (yellow bar), is higher in the two youngest age groups. Finally, clients with other income (grey bar), represents a proportion ranging from 2% to 21%. This category indicates that clients are either with no income, on disability or on maternity leave. As the 65-69 year age group shows the highest proportional percentage, it must not be misinterpreted as there are a small number of clients in that age group.

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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Income Status by Age Group

Percentage

100 80 60

46 36

40 20

31

31 22

7 7

11

4

19 5

27 27

26

23

25-34

28

25

13 4

1 2

0 15-24

46

44

43

39

35-44

45-54

0 4

55-64

21 7

0

65-69

Age groups Employed

EI

SAR

Students

Others

Note: Others include people with no income, on disability or maternity leave.

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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4.4 Work Experience This section will look at type of work (occupations) of currently employed clients as well as the background (work experience) of the total Labour Force. This information will provide a general overview of Listuguj Labour force skills & experience.

4.4.1 Employed Labour Force by Occupational groups The following bar chart illustrates the proportion of the employed Labour Force by sectors of work by gender. On the men’s side, the most important sector is the Trades, Transport & Equipment Operators group employing close to 57% of the male workers. The Sales & Services and Primary Industry are the second and third most important sectors employing 13% and 11%. On the women’s side, Social Services, Education & Government Services is the most important sector employing approximately 14%. Business, Finances & Administration is also a very important group employing approximately 22% of the women’s Labour force.

Employment by Occupational Group 1 1 1

P r oc e ssi ng, M a nuf a c t ut i ng & ut i l i t i e s P r i m a r y I ndust r y

11

3

Tr a de s, Tr a nspor t & Equi pm e nt ope r a t or s

38 23

Sales & Services

0 3

S oc i a l S c i e nc e , Educ a t i on, Gov S e r v i c e s Healt h

2

B usi ne ss, f i na nc e & a dm i ni st a t i on

23

M a na ge m e nt

1 0

8

3 1 3 0 4

5

57

35

13

1

A r t & c ul t ur e

N a t ur a l & a ppl i e d sc i e nc e

17 14

14

12

22

4 10

20

30

40

50

Percentage Male

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

Female

Total

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60


4.4.2 Labour Force by Work Experience The following chart presents the sectors of work and proportion of workers with a certain level of work experience from past and current employment, possibly suggesting the main areas of skills of the Labour Force. Again looking at the men’s work experience, a high proportion has had some experience in the Trades, Transport & Equipment Operators group (59%). The Sales & Services and Primary Industry are the second and third most important sectors of work experience with 16% and 12%. On the women’s side, Sales and Services is the most important sector with a proportion of 39% claiming to have work experience. Business, Finances & Administration is also a very important group with more that 23%.

Labour Force by Work Experience 1 1 1

P r o c e ssi n g , M a n u f a c t u t i n g & ut i l i t i e s

P r i m a r y I n d u st r y

10

2

16 40

T r a d e s, T r a n sp o r t & Eq u i p m e n t

14

ope r a t or s

59 24

Sales & Services

2 3 1

A r t & c ul t ur e

6

S o c i a l S c i e n c e , Ed u c a t i o n , Go v Services

3 1

Healt h

0 1

N a t u r a l & a p p l i e d sc i e n c e

39

12

11

2 3 4 12

23

B u si n e ss, f i n a n c e & a d m i n i st a t i o n

3 2 M a na ge me nt

1 0

3 10

20

30

Male

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

40

Percentage Female

50

60

Total

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70


5 – OBSERVATIONS AND POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES This section provides a summary of general observations of the labour markets surrounding Listuguj, as well as, observations of the Listuguj Labour force stemming from this present research. Based on this information, some potential opportunities are outlined for LMDC to consider in their strategic service delivery planning.

5.1 General Observations - surrounding labour market a)

The community of Listuguj is surrounded by two regions, Gaspesie & Iles de la Madeleine and Northeast New Brunswick, which are showing the lowest employment rates in their respective provinces. Based on this research, the employment rate for Listuguj is estimated significantly th lower than its neighbours (as of data from March 5 ). Employment rates represent the total number of employed people divided by total population over 15 years of age.

Employment rate estimates for 2010 (approximations only) Gaspésie and Iles de la 46 % Madeleine Northern New Brunswick

45 %

Listuguj

28 %

b) The research results show that higher education levels in a population will improve their chances of finding a job, therefore increasing the employment rate. Over the next three to five years, there will be a higher demand for these skill levels: i. Professional – requiring University Education ii. Technical Occupations – requiring College Education iii. Intermediate – requiring at least a High School Diploma c) The following sectors offer a positive outlook for the short to medium terms, therefore offering better employment opportunities for potential workers (see Section 3 for occupations with positive outlook in these sectors) i. Health and Social assistance services ii. Construction iii. Utilities (due to wind farms) iv. Transportation v. Aquaculture vi. Professional, Scientific & Technical services vii. Mining

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5.2 Listuguj Labour Force Observations Based on the data collected through ALMASS, here are some of the highlights of Listuguj members for the analyzed elements.

a) Demographics

b) Education

c) Employment

d) Work Experience

LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

There is a higher proportion of youth (age group 15-24) compared to the proportion of the older generation There is a higher proportion of Men vs Women English is the main spoken language. Mi’gmaq is more often spoken by the older generation and French by the younger generation Close to half of LMDC’s clients do not possess a High School Diploma. Men have a higher school drop-out rate compared to women. Women tend to stay longer in school – and show stronger employment rates. Age groups – 35 to 44 & 45-54 – shows higher education levels, as well as, employment levels Women do better in the labour market The under 35 year age groups show weaker employment rates The under 35 year age groups have a higher proportion of Social Assistance Recipients Listuguj men find more employment in the following areas of work and also demonstrate higher proportions of work experiences: o Trades, Transport & Equipment Operators o Sales & Services o Primary Industries Occupations Listuguj women find more employment in the following areas of work and also demonstrate higher proportions of work experiences: o Social Services, Education & Government Services o Business, Finance & Administration

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5.3 Priorities for training Based on the research findings, the following priorities should be addressed within LMDC’s service delivery offering: 1) Considering: a. The high number of youth (612 under 35 years of age) in the labour market vs the older generations. b. Those in age groups lower than 35 years of age show weaker postsecondary education ratios, employment ratios and higher proportions of Social Assistance Recipients. c. Males tend to drop out of school more often than females and that their employment rates are weaker.

LMDC should prioritize the less than 35 year age groups in their service offering and give specific attention to males.

2) Considering: a. The majority of occupations in demand requires skill levels of at least a High School Diploma, and often College or University Training b. The high proportion of clients without postsecondary training, especially for those aged less than 35 years

LMDC should prioritize clients with and without a High School Diploma as their highest level of Education and assist them in increasing their level of Education

3) Considering: a. Economic factors such as; aging population, weaker manufacturing, and agriculture & forestry industries. b. Positive outlooks for industries such as; Health and Social assistance services, Business & Finance, Construction and others.

LMDC should prioritize training in the occupations (Professional, Technical & Intermediate skill levels) showing a positive outlook and which have been identified in this research.

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6- CONCLUSION Between 2010 and 2012, employment growth in the Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine region is expected to be slower than the Quebec average. In conjunction with labour force replacement needs due to retirement and lay offs, the regional labour market will have to fill over 4,000 positions by 2012. The region could be faced with serious labour shortages because, according to Emploi Quebec, there will not be enough people to replace those who will retire. As is the case in most of the two regional industries, the weak United States demand is harming export companies in the regions. The strong Canadian dollar also makes local goods less competitive. The depletion of natural resources, along with economic difficulties is having a major impact on local businesses that rely on marine and forest resources. Service industries should fare better, as these economic factors tend to have a smaller impact on them. The manufacture of wind energy components and wind farm construction and operation will support job creation and a shift in the local economy in Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine. Businesses in this new sector will create demand for jobs in wind energy component manufacturing, professional, scientific and technical services and construction. The need for labour should remain stable, as the wind farms are expected to be built between now and 2015. The two regional populations are shrinking, which will result in reduced demand for products and services in the regions. In addition to consumer services businesses which will have fewer customers, the public administration sector will also see a reduction in its client base. The regional populations are aging, and occupations in the health and social services sector are expected to benefit. The demand for products and services could also change and create new opportunities for businesses and workers. The limited number of post-secondary graduates in the regions is leading to hiring difficulties for businesses looking for candidates for professional, technical or specialized positions. Recruitment from outside the region may be a solution. With the baby boomers reaching retirement age, Emploi Quebec predicts that by 2019, there will be around 115,000 people who are newly retired. That number in 2000 was only 65,000. More than half of retired workers will be replaced by youth. Aboriginal youth could become an important labour pool to help fill the gaps in the aging Canadian workforce. Over the past 20 years, it has been the most educated groups that have posted the strongest growth in employment. Generally speaking, the unemployment rate drops as the level of education rises. Education is one of the most effective ways to avoid labour market exclusion and weather a recession.

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7 REFERENCES Bernard, Andre. 2009. “Trends in manufacturing employment.” Perspectives on Labour and Income. Vol. 10, no. 2. February. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 75-001-X. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75001-x/2009102/article/10788-eng.htm (accessed December 20, 2010). Emploi Quebec. 2009. “Le marché du travail dans la region de la Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine.” Perpectives professionnelles 2009-2013. 63 pages. (accessed December 14, 2010). Grenier, Andre. Juillet 2010. “Le marché du travail et l’emploi sectoriel au Quebec 2010-2014.” Emploi-Quebec. 44 pages. (accessed December 14, 2010). Grenier, Andre. Novembre 2010. “Le marché du travail au Quebec-Perspectives a long terme20102019.” Emploi Quebec. 38 pages. (accessed December 15, 2010). Gurria, Angel. (August 26, 2010). OECD. In Better Policies for Better Lives. Retrieved December 14, 2010, from http://www.oecd.org/document/62/0,3746,en_2649_201185_46605950_1_1_1_1,00.html. Labbe, Sylvain. June 2009. “Profile of the Anglophone Population”. Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine. Labour Market Analysis Directorate. Service Canada. 30 pages. (accessed December 17, 2010). Labbe, Sylvain. October 2010. “Sectoral Outlook 2010-2012.” Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine. Service Canada. 28 pages. (accessed December 16, 2010). Labbe, Sylvain. November 2010. “Perspctives Professionnelles 2010-2012”. Gaspesie-Iles-de-laMadeleine. Service Canada. 19 pages. (accessed December 21, 2010). Labour Market Analysis Branch of the Department of Post Secondary Education, Training and Labour. March 2010. “Occupational Overview”. Job opportunities according to LMAB’s Occupational Forecasts (2 year, 5 year, and 9 year projections)-2009 scenario. Laurendeau, Sylvain. October 2010. “Sectoral Outlook 2010-2012.” Quebec Region. Service Canada. 23 pages. (accessed January 5, 2011). Martin, Marie-France, Cathrine Ouellet. 2010. “Employment in Quebec: Key figures.” Emploi Quebec. Information sur le marché du travail. 2010 edition. (accessed December, 15 2010). Statistics Canada. 2010. Labour Force Information. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 71-001-x http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/71-001-x/71-001-x2010011-eng.pdf (accessed December 17, 2010). Monthly. Statistics Canada. 2010. Labour force survey LMI Analysis Report – LMDC – May 2011

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Usalcas, Jeannine. “Labour market review 2009.” Perspectives on Labour and Income. vol. 11 no. 4, April. Statistics Canada Catalogue no 75-001-x. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-001x/2010104/pdf/11148-eng.pdf (accessed December 17, 2010). Zietsma, Danielle. 2010. “Aboriginal People Living Off-Reserve and the Labour Market: Estimates from the Labour Force Survey, 2008-2009”. The Aboriginal Labour Force Analysis Series. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 71-558-X, no. 2. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/71-587-x/71-587-x2005001-eng.htm (accessed December 16, 2010).

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LMDC-LMI Analysis Report