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THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM A place of assembly for strategic conversations

Sense making Update: Year To Date 2018 (March 2018) 1

Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU

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THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

SENSE MAKING UPDATE: YEAR TO DATE 2018 (MARCH 2018) Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU REPORT OUTLINE SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION: SLIDES 3 – 10 SECTION 2: SLIDES 11 - 24 Analysis of trends in BPP: YTD Actual and YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 2,1: SLIDES 25 - 28 Analysis of trends in BPP: *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018, BPP by Province SECTION 3: SLIDES 29 - 57 Analysis of trends in BC; *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 4: SLIDES 58 - 68 Connecting the dots: Analysis of trends in GFCF Res, Non Res and Total Building; *YTD Actual and Forecast for 2018 - 2025 © BMI-BRSCU


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THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

SENSE MAKING UPDATE: YEAR TO DATE 2018 (MARCH 2018) Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU REPORT OUTLINE SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION: SLIDES 3 – 10 SECTION 2: SLIDES 11 - 24 Analysis of trends in BPP: YTD Actual and YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 2,1: SLIDES 25 - 28 Analysis of trends in BPP: *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018, BPP by Province SECTION 3: SLIDES 29 - 57 Analysis of trends in BC; *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 4: SLIDES 58 - 68 Connecting the dots: Analysis of trends in GFCF Res, Non Res and Total Building; *YTD Actual and Forecast for 2018 - 2025 © BMI-BRSCU


THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM DATA, INFORMATION, KNOWLEDGE AND INSIGHT

No matter how hard you might wish it to be otherwise, the world is awash in data. Some decisions have to be made on the basis of it, and those decisions are required to be data-driven. Profitability, hiring, contracts, pricing - these are things that need data, and the faster you can get the right bits of it, the quicker you can make the call.

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Equally though, the best ideas in the world are forward-looking and are usually only data-related. The best ideas are rooted in history, but envision the future. Š BMI-BRSCU


BUSINESS AND COMPLEXITY www.strategicforum.co.za

Foresight

Benjamin Franklin put it very simply. "By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail," the scientist, diplomat and co-author of the American Declaration of Independence once said. But what if you don’t know what you are preparing for? What if the pace of change is so frantic and tomorrow so unpredictable, that any attempt to forecast the future is no more than educated guesswork? That is the challenge facing business in 2017: preparing for a journey into the unknown, the so-called VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous) environment. Everything companies and executives think they know about the business environment is in danger of becoming obsolete.


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THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM BMI-BRSCU FORECASTING FLOWCHARTT: 2016 - 2020

DATA ANALYSIS PROVIDES THE IN-DEPTH UNDERSTANDING OF THE CURRENT REALITY, WHICH TOGETHER WITH FUTURE FORECASTING ARE ELEMENTS OF STRATEGIC THINKING, WHICH INFORMS STRATEGY FORMULATION AND ENRICHES THE CONTEXT IN WHICH STRATEGY IS DEVELOPED, PLANNED, EXECUTED AND MONITORED. THEREFORE THE SENSE MAKING UPDATE AND INDUSTRY DASHBOARD IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INPUT TO THE STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESS, COMMENCING WITH INDUSTRY CONTEXT BY VALUE, FOLLOWED BY CURRENT REALITY BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT FOR BPP AND BC AND NBIP WITH MONTHLY MONITORING. WE THEN RELATE THIS TO THE FUTURE THROUGH SCENARIOS AND FORECAST, BY VALUE AND M2 AND BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT.

CONTEXT >>> CURRENT REALITY >>> SCENARIOS >>> FUTURE FORECAST >>> STATE OF INDUSTRY

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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: PURPOSE OF BPP AND BC SURVEY

Purpose of the BPP and BC survey The monthly survey data are used in monitoring the state of economy and formulation of economic policy. Furthermore, the results are important inputs to estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) and to calculate the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator. The data are extensively used by the private sector. Scope of the survey The survey covers local government institutions conducting activities for the private sector regarding passing of building plans; and final inspection of completed buildings. (StatsSA; June 2017) 7

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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: GLOSSARY OF SEGMENTS: BPP AND BC

Glossary of Segments: BPP and BC Additions and alterations: Extensions to existing buildings as well as internal and external alterations of existing buildings. Blocks of flats: High-density housing consisting of a number of selfcontained dwelling-units, each with at least one living-room together with a kitchen and bathroom, conjoined to similar units in one building. Dwelling-house: A free-standing, complete structure on a separate stand or a self-contained dwelling-unit, e.g. granny flat, on the same premises as an existing residence. Out-buildings and garages are included. Non-residential buildings: Factories and commercial, financial and other office buildings, as well as other buildings not used for residential purposes, such as churches, halls, clubs, schools and hospitals. Other residential buildings: Institutions for the disabled, boarding houses, old people’s homes, hostels, hotels, motels, guesthouses, holiday chalets, bed-and-breakfast accommodation, entertainment centres and casinos. (StatsSA; June 2017) 8

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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: GLOSSARY OF SEGMENTS: BPP AND BC

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INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: 2016: M2*1000 Sector and Segment Recorded* Recorded** Unrecorded PRIVATE AND PUBLIC M2*1000 M2*1000 M2*1000 Dwelling-houses < 80 m2 791 Dwelling-houses > 80 m2 2793 Townhouses & Flats 1398 Other (Incl. hotels & casinos) 96 Additions & alterations 1297 PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL Affordable Housing 15027 General Government 193 Public corporations 12 Private Business Enterprises 8710 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL Offices 442 Shops 968 Industrial & warehouse 1151 Other 272 Additions & Alterations 397 PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL General Government 2620 Public Corporations 473 Private Business Enterprises 4180 TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL Unrecorded Res Adds and Alts 6680 Unrecorded Non Res Adds and Alts 805 GRAND TOTAL 9604 16187 22513 * StatsSA (Monthly 6 weeks in arrears) 19,88% 33,51% 46,61% ** SARB (Quarterly in arrears) 53,39% 46,61%

Total M2*1000 791 2793 1398 96 1297 15027 193 12 8710

442 968 1151 272 397 2620 473 4180 6680 805 48305 100,00% 100,00%

IT MUST BE EMPHASISED THAT BPP AND BC (PUBLISED BY STATSSA) COMPRISES < 20% OF TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING. Nevertheless it is an excellent short-term indicator of the trends in the Building Industry (published 6 weekly in arrears) but it must be interpreted in this context.

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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: NBIP (= BPP – BC): FORECAST: 2017-2020:M2 and R*1000

The NBIP = BPP-BC is a proxy for "Building Starts, or the Order book”, because the building of this remnant must be postponed, cancelled or COMMENCED, for delivery of Buildings in the Pipeline to be maintained. MIN/MAX/AVE/YTD ACTUAL2018/FC2018-2020 OF BPP/BQ: 1993 - 2018 RES NON RES TOTAL m2 R*1000 m2 R*1000 m2 R*1000 PARAMETER 1,62 1,61 1,31 1,29 1,51 1,49 Actual 2017 1,62 1,70 1,68 1,76 1,63 1,71 Average 1993-2017 1,06 1,10 1,06 1,12 1,19 1,05 Minimum (2005) 1,88 1,99 2,34 2,63 1,92 2,10 Maximum (2009) 1,83 1,77 1,85 1,92 1,84 1,82 YTD Actual 2018 * 1,64 1,59 1,73 1,69 1,67 1,62 *YTD FC 2018 0,22 0,07 0,17 0,16 0,21 0,11 *YTD Act-Ave 0,79 0,71 0,74 0,86 0,72 0,63 *YTD Act-Min -0,05 -0,22 -0,50 -0,71 -0,08 -0,28 *YTD Act-Max 0,02 1,61 1,31 1,29 1,51 1,49 *YTD FC-Ave © BMI-BRSCU * March 2018

The ratio BPP/BC for *YTD Actual 2018 varies from a low of 1,77 (Res R*1000) to a high of 1,92 (Non Res R*1000). Note that all the ratios for YTD 2018 are below the maximums (achieved in 2009), generally above the average for 1993 – 2017, and well above the minimum (achieved in 2005). The ratio can be interpreted as the “health of the Industry” or could be an indication that BPP exceeds BC, either to depict “health” or sluggish Building Completions through postponement or cancellation of BPP. This will be evident in the STATS.

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THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

SENSE MAKING UPDATE: YEAR TO DATE 2018 (MARCH 2018) Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU REPORT OUTLINE SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION: SLIDES 3 – 10 SECTION 2: SLIDES 11 - 24 Analysis of trends in BPP: YTD Actual and YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 2,1: SLIDES 25 - 28 Analysis of trends in BPP: *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018, BPP by Province SECTION 3: SLIDES 29 - 57 Analysis of trends in BC; *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 4: SLIDES 58 - 68 Connecting the dots: Analysis of trends in GFCF Res, Non Res and Total Building; *YTD Actual and Forecast for 2018 - 2025 © BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP & BC: YTD ACTUAL

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RESULTS FOR YTD ACTUAL MARCH 2018 BPP YTD ACTUAL MARCH 2018 VS 2017: CURRENT PRICES Current Prices Residential Buildings

YTD Mar 2017 YTD March 2018

Difference

R*1000 R*1000 11 938 362

R*1000

% Change

12 476 807

538 445

4,5%

- Dwelling Houses

7 147 937

7 786 195

638 258

8,9%

- Flats & Townhouses

4 738 849

4 370 192

-368 657

-7,8%

- Other Res Buildings

51 576

320 420

268 844

521,3%

Non Residential Buildings

5 847 592

5 695 819

-151 773

-2,6%

Additions & Alterations

6 141 900

7 249 702

1 107 802

18,0%

23 927 854

25 422 328

1 494 474

6,25%

Total

Total value of recorded building plans passed at current prices The value of recorded building plans passed (at current prices) increased by + 6,25% (+ R1 494,473) million) during YTD March 2018 compared with 2017. Non-residential buildings decreased by – 2,6% (-R151,773 million). Residential Buildings increased by + 4,5% (-R538,445 Million). Additions and Alterations increased by + 18,0% (+ R1 107,802) 12

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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD ACTUAL

The 2018 YTD Actual Residential BPP vs the same period in 2017 shows an INCREASE of + 2,75% in m2; and an INCREASE of + 4,89% in value. The 2018 YTD Actual Non Residential BPP vs 2016 recorded an INCREASE of + 3,57% in m2; and an INCREASE of + 9,17% in value. Therefore the 2018 YTD Actual Total BPP vs 2017 shows an INCREASE of + 3,00% in m2 and an INCREASE of + 6,25% in value.

Mar-18 BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value) 2015 vs 2014 Residential BPP (m2) 1,81% Residential BPP (R) 7,69% Non Residential BPP (m2) -6,78% Non Residential BPP (R) -0,48%

2016 vs 2015 -1,46% 7,58% 4,27% 11,23%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act 2015 2016 2017 YTD vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST -3,29% 2,75% -1,46% -3,29% 1,81% -0,43% 4,89% 7,58% -0,43% 7,69% -9,02% 3,57% 4,27% -9,02% -6,78% -2,50% 9,17% 11,23% -2,50% -0,48%

2018 YTD FORECAST -0,36% -0,24% 3,15% 3,55%

Total BPP (m2) Total BPP (R) Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (m2)

-0,92% 4,98% -0,84%

0,25% 8,73% 0,29%

-5,07% -1,10% -6,78%

3,00% 6,25% 3,00%

-0,92% 4,98% -0,84%

0,25% 8,73% 0,29%

-5,07% -1,10% -6,78%

0,68% 0,96% 0,23%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (R)

5,12%

8,74%

-1,90%

6,26%

5,12%

8,75%

-1,90%

0,76%

The 2018 YTD Forecast Residential BPP vs the same period in 2017 shows a DECREASE of - 0,36% in m2; and a DECREASE of – 0,24% in value. The 2018 YTD Forecast Non Residential BPP vs 2017 shows an INCREASE of + 3,15% in m2; and of + 3,55% in value. Therefore the 2018 YTD Forecast Total BPP vs 2017 shows an INCREASE of + 0,68% in m2 and an INCREASE of + 0,96% in value. 13

© BMI-BRSCU


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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD ACTUAL

Mar-18 BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value) 2015 vs 2014 Residential BPP (m2) 1,81% Residential BPP (R) 7,69% Non Residential BPP (m2) -6,78% Non Residential BPP (R) -0,48%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act 2015 2016 2017 YTD vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST -1,46% -3,29% -3,29% 2,75% 1,81% 7,58% -0,43% -0,43% 4,89% 7,69% 4,27% -9,02% -9,02% 3,57% -6,78% -2,50% 9,17% 11,23% -2,50% -0,48%

2016 vs 2015 -1,46% 7,58% 4,27% 11,23%

FORECAST -0,36% -0,24% 3,15% 3,55%

Total BPP (m2) Total BPP (R) Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (m2)

-0,92% 4,98% -0,84%

0,25% 8,73% 0,29%

-5,07% -1,10% -6,78%

3,00% 6,25% 3,00%

-0,92% 4,98% -0,84%

0,25% 8,73% 0,29%

-5,07% -1,10% -6,78%

0,68% 0,96% 0,23%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (R)

5,12%

8,74%

-1,90%

6,26%

5,12%

8,75%

-1,90%

0,76%

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL

m2

%

R*1000

%

51 538

122,04%

213 686

97,71%

5 595

68,45%

424 572

65,08%

-25 994

40,47%

-368 657

32,73%

28 358

436,88%

268 844

646,38%

5 632

59,90%

261 151

69,52%

65 129

2,75%

799 596

4,89%

65 129

2,75%

799 596

4,89%

R*1000

%

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 % Office and banking

27 777

65,57%

373 675

83,21%

Shopping

-2 698

41,27%

-190 624

20,40%

-99 269

12,83%

-433 633

18,44%

2 210

28,02%

98 809

44,68%

Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL

108 515

143,51%

846 651

132,70%

36 535

3,57%

694 878

9,17%

101 664

3,00%

1 494 474

6,25%

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 R*1000 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL RES

41 99 -143 -52 17

200 090 499 798 518

4,18% 2,41% -6,10% -48,48% 0,59%

277 813 1 029 476 -1 405 295 -407 668 327 569

5,78% 3,57% -7,43% -46,17% 1,55%

-38 489

-0,36% -0,36%

-178 105

-0,24% -0,24%

-38 489 -38 489

-178 105 -178 105

NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 R*1000 Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL NON RES

57 -88 -2 28 145

082 236 255 164 864

11,97% -10,29% -0,12% 5,99% 17,96%

703 297 -1 082 770 130 839 336 225 1 142 455

15,62% -14,43% 1,17% 10,08% 14,12%

140 619

3,15% 3,15%

1 230 046

3,55% 3,55%

140 619

TOTAL RES & NON RES GRAND TOTAL

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2018 YTD

* March 2018

1 230 046

102 130

0,68%

1 051 941

0,96%

102 130

0,68%

1 051 941

0,96%

© BMI-BRSCU


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RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018

m2

%

R*1000

%

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres

241 993

9,94%

1 206 325

7,03%

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres

913 036

37,50%

6 579 870

38,36%

Flats and townhouses

591 406

24,29%

4 370 192

25,48%

37 367

1,53%

320 420

1,87%

650 646

26,73%

4 674 598

27,25%

2 434 448 100,00%

17 151 405

100,00%

Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL

69,65% 2 434 448 NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 m2

67,47% 17 151 405 %

R*1000

%

Office and banking

163 308

15,40%

1 619 414

19,58%

Shopping

132 900

12,53%

994 523

12,02%

Industrial and warehouse

354 940

33,46%

2 165 568

26,18%

Other buildings

116 932

11,02%

916 314

11,08%

Additions and alterations

292 556

27,58%

2 575 104

31,13%

1 060 636

100,00%

8 270 923

100,00%

TOTAL

30,35%

32,53%

GRAND TOTAL

3 495 084

25 422 328

* March 2018

1 060 636

8 270 923

3 495 084

25 422 328

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD ACTUAL

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PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD ACTUAL 2018 (R*1000) (MARCH) Houses R7,79 Billion

Additions & Alterations R4,67 Billion

Residential

67,47% R17,15 Billion BPP/BC = 2,90 NBIP = 190%*BC

Additions & Alterations

% Contribution of Building Type to Total Value of Building Plans Passed: YTD 2018

Total Value R25,42 Billion BPP/BC = 3,06 NBIP = 206%*BC

Industrial & Warehousing R2,17 Billion

R2,58 Billion

Non Res

32,53% R8,27 Billion BPP/BC = 3,41 NBIP = 241%*BC

Offices & Banking R1,62 Billion Other R0,32 Billion

Total Additions & Alterations

18,61% Flats & Townhouses R4,37 Billion

R4,73 Billion

Other R0,92 Billion Shopping R0,99 Billion

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP: YTD ACTUAL AND FORECAST 2017

Mar-18 BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value) 2015 vs 2014 Residential BPP (m2) 1,81% Residential BPP (R) 7,69% Non Residential BPP (m2) -6,78% Non Residential BPP (R) -0,48% Total BPP (m2) Total BPP (R)

-0,92% 4,98%

2016 vs 2015 -1,46% 7,58% 4,27% 11,23% 0,25% 8,73%

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL

m2

%

R*1000

%

51 538

122,04%

213 686

97,71%

5 595

68,45%

424 572

65,08%

-25 994

40,47%

-368 657

32,73%

28 358

436,88%

268 844

646,38%

5 632

59,90%

261 151

69,52%

65 129

2,75%

799 596

4,89%

65 129

2,75%

799 596

4,89%

R*1000

%

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 %

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act 2015 2016 2017 YTD vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST -3,29% 2,75% -1,46% -3,29% 1,81% 7,58% -0,43% -0,43% 4,89% 7,69% 4,27% -9,02% -9,02% 3,57% -6,78% 11,23% -2,50% -2,50% 9,17% -0,48% -5,07% -1,10%

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL RES

65,57%

373 675

83,21%

-2 698

41,27%

-190 624

20,40%

-99 269

12,83%

-433 633

18,44%

2 210

28,02%

98 809

44,68%

108 515

143,51%

846 651

132,70%

Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations

36 535

3,57%

694 878

9,17%

TOTAL NON RES

TOTAL GRAND TOTAL

17

101 664

3,00%

1 494 474

6,25%

36 535

3,57%

694 878

9,17%

0,68% 0,96%

41 200 99 090 -143 499 -52 798 17 518

4,18% 2,41% -6,10% -48,48% 0,59%

277 813 1 029 476 -1 405 295 -407 668 327 569

5,78% 3,57% -7,43% -46,17% 1,55%

-38 489

-0,36% -0,36%

-178 105

-0,24% -0,24%

-178 105 -178 105

57 082 -88 236 -2 255 28 164 145 864

11,97% -10,29% -0,12% 5,99% 17,96%

703 297 -1 082 770 130 839 336 225 1 142 455

15,62% -14,43% 1,17% 10,08% 14,12%

140 619

3,15% 3,15%

1 230 046

3,55% 3,55%

140 619 * March 2018

-5,07% -1,10%

NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 R*1000

27 777

Additions and alterations

0,25% 8,73%

-38 489 -38 489

Shopping Other buildings

-0,92% 4,98%

FORECAST -0,36% -0,24% 3,15% 3,55%

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 R*1000

Office and banking Industrial and warehouse

3,00% 6,25%

2018 YTD

TOTAL RES & NON RES * March 2018

1 230 046

102 130

0,68%

1 051 941

0,96%

102 130

0,68%

1 051 941

0,96%

© BMI-BRSCU


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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP YTD ACTUAL: % CHANGE 2017 VS 2016 (R*1000)

PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 (R*1000) (MARCH) Other + 646,38% Flats & Townhouses + 32,73%

Additions & Alterations

+ 69,52% % Change in Value of Building Plans Passed between YTD 2018 and 2017 by Building Type

Dwellings > 80 m2 + 65,08%

Residential + 4,89%

Dwellings < 80 m2 + 97,71%

All Buildings + 6,25% Non Residential + 9,17%

Offices & Banking + 83,21%

Shopping + 20,40% Additions & Alterations

Industrial & Warehousing + 18,44%

+ 132,70%

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Other + 44,68%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

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CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED BY SEGMENT: CUM YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017

646,38%

% Difference in Cumulative Y/Y BPP: CUM *YTD Actual 2018 vs 2017 by Segment (* March) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA Chart 99)

700%

436,88%

600%

500%

400%

6,25%

132,70% R'000

87,61%

143,51%

69,52% R'000

m2

59,90%

28,02% m2

m2

18,44% R'000

36,53%

12,83% m2

44,68%

20,40% R'000

41,27%

65,57% m2

83,21%

62,02% R'000

32,73% R'000

80,98% No

40,47%

75,22% R'000

m2

65,08% m2

100%

68,45%

97,71%

122,04%

200%

137,11%

300%

0%

< 80m2

19

> 80m2

Flats and Townhouses

Other

Total Office and Shopping Ind&WH Banking

Other

Total

R'000

R'000

R'000

R'000

m2

R'000

R'000

m2

No

R'000

m2

No

-100%

A&A A&A OtherTot A&A Dwellings Tot

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD FORECAST

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FC 2018 m2 % Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL

R*1000

%

1 026 580 4 211 362 2 210 419 56 119 3 002 100

9,77% 40,08% 21,04% 0,53% 28,57%

5 084 886 29 867 447 17 498 814 475 286 21 499 949

6,83% 40,13% 23,51% 0,64% 28,89%

10 506 580 69,50% 10 506 580

100,00%

74 426 382 67,48% 74 426 382

100,00%

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FC 2018 m2 % R*1000 Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL TOTAL * March 2018

20

534 120 769 513 1 850 944 498 074 957 885

%

11,58% 16,69% 40,15% 10,80% 20,78%

5 205 898 6 419 147 11 343 989 3 670 489 9 233 422

14,51% 17,89% 31,62% 10,23% 25,74%

4 610 536 100,00%

35 872 945

100,00%

30,50%

32,52%

15 117 116

110 299 327

4 610 536

35 872 945

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD FORECAST

PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD FORECAST 2018 (R*1000) (MARCH) Houses R34,95 Billion

Additions & Alterations

Additions & Alterations R21,50 Billion

Residential

67,48% R74,43 Billion BPP/BC = 2,97 NBIP = 197%*BC

Industrial & Warehousing R11,34 Billion

% Contribution of Building Type to Total Value of Building Plans Passed: YTD FC 2018 Total Value R110,30 Billion BPP/BC = 3,11 NBIP =211%*BC

R8,88 Billion

Non Res

32,52% R35,87 Billion BPP/BC = 3,41 NBIP =241*BC

Offices & Banking R5,21 Billion Other R 0,48 Billion Flats & Townhouses R17,50 Billion

21

Total Additions & Alterations

Other R3,69 Billion

27,54% R30,38 Billion

Shopping R6,42 Billion

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP: YTD ACTUAL AND FORECAST 2017

Mar-18 BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value) 2015 vs 2014 Residential BPP (m2) 1,81% Residential BPP (R) 7,69% -6,78% Non Residential BPP (m2) Non Residential BPP (R) -0,48% Total BPP (m2) Total BPP (R)

-0,92% 4,98%

2016 vs 2015 -1,46% 7,58% 4,27% 11,23% 0,25% 8,73%

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018

m2

%

R*1000

%

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres

241 993

9,94%

1 206 325

7,03%

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres

913 036

37,50%

6 579 870

38,36%

Flats and townhouses

591 406

24,29%

4 370 192

25,48%

37 367

1,53%

320 420

1,87%

650 646

26,73%

4 674 598

27,25%

2 434 448 100,00%

17 151 405

100,00%

Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL

69,65% 2 434 448 NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 m2

R*1000

%

163 308

15,40%

1 619 414

19,58%

132 900

12,53%

994 523

12,02% 26,18%

Industrial and warehouse

354 940

33,46%

2 165 568

Other buildings

116 932

11,02%

916 314

11,08%

Additions and alterations

292 556

27,58%

2 575 104

31,13%

1 060 636

100,00%

8 270 923

100,00%

30,35%

32,53%

GRAND TOTAL

3 495 084

25 422 328

* March 2018

1 060 636

8 270 923

-0,92% 4,98%

0,25% 8,73%

2018 YTD FORECAST -0,36% -0,24% 3,15% 3,55%

-5,07% -1,10%

0,68% 0,96%

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 R*1000 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL RES

17 151 405 %

3,00% 6,25%

41 200 99 090 -143 499 -52 798 17 518

4,18% 2,41% -6,10% -48,48% 0,59%

277 813 1 029 476 -1 405 295 -407 668 327 569

5,78% 3,57% -7,43% -46,17% 1,55%

-38 489

-0,36% -0,36%

-178 105

-0,24% -0,24%

-38 489 -38 489

Shopping

22

-5,07% -1,10%

67,47%

Office and banking

TOTAL

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act 2015 2016 2017 YTD vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST -3,29% 2,75% -1,46% -3,29% 1,81% -0,43% 4,89% 7,58% -0,43% 7,69% -9,02% 3,57% 4,27% -9,02% -6,78% -2,50% 9,17% 11,23% -2,50% -0,48%

-178 105 -178 105

NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 R*1000 Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL NON RES

57 082 -88 236 -2 255 28 164 145 864

11,97% -10,29% -0,12% 5,99% 17,96%

703 297 -1 082 770 130 839 336 225 1 142 455

15,62% -14,43% 1,17% 10,08% 14,12%

140 619

3,15% 3,15%

1 230 046

3,55% 3,55%

140 619

TOTAL RES & NON RES * March 2018

1 230 046

102 130

0,68%

1 051 941

0,96%

102 130

0,68%

1 051 941

0,96%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: % CHANGE 2017 VS 2016

PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 (R*1000) (MARCH) Other - 46,17% Flats & Townhouses - 7,43%

Additions & Alterations

+ 1,55% % Change in Value of Building Plans Passed between YTD 2018 and 2017 by Building Type

Dwellings > 80 m2 + 3,57%

Residential - 0,24%

Dwellings < 80 m2 + 5,78%

All Buildings + 0,96% Non Residential + 3,55%

Offices & Banking + 15,62%

Shopping - 14,43% Additions & Alterations

Industrial & Warehousing + 1,17%

+ 14,12 %

23

Other + 10,08%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED BY SEGMENT: CUM YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017

0,90%

1,55% R'000

5,05%

17,96% 0,59% m2

0,13%

10,08%

3,54% No

5,99%

3,57% R'000

1,17%

2,41% m2

1,09%

5,78%

4,18%

10%

5,63%

20%

15,62%

11,97%

30%

14,12%

% Difference in Cumulative Y/Y BPP: Cum *YTD FC 2018 vs 2017 by Segment (* March) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA Chart 100)

-0,12% -14,43%

-10,29%

-7,43% R'000

-20%

-1,06%

-6,10%

-10%

m2

0%

-30%

-48,48%

-50% -60%

-46,17%

-40%

< 80m2

24

> 80m2

Flats and Townhouses

Other

Total Office and Shopping Ind&WH Banking

Other

Total

R'000

R'000

R'000

m2

R'000

R'000

m2

R'000

m2

R'000

m2

R'000

m2

R'000

R'000

m2

No

R'000

m2

No

-70%

A&A A&A OtherTot A&A Dwellings Tot

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

25

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

SENSE MAKING UPDATE: YEAR TO DATE 2018 (MARCH 2018) Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU REPORT OUTLINE SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION: SLIDES 3 – 10 SECTION 2: SLIDES 11 - 24 Analysis of trends in BPP: YTD Actual and YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 2,1: SLIDES 25 - 28 Analysis of trends in BPP: *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018, BPP by Province SECTION 3: SLIDES 29 - 57 Analysis of trends in BC; *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 4: SLIDES 58 - 68 Connecting the dots: Analysis of trends in GFCF Res, Non Res and Total Building; *YTD Actual and Forecast for 2018 - 2025 © BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2017

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres

Total RSA 985 380 4 112 272

WC 6,72% 29,52%

EC 8,14% 28,96%

GAU 8,60% 27,15%

KZN 2,86% 15,49%

MPUM 6,58% 44,51%

NC 1,81% 33,64%

FS 1,41% 29,28%

LIMP 3,81% 45,23%

NW 8,23% 30,41%

Rank by segment 5 1

2 353 918 108 917

17,95% 0,63%

5,55% 0,86%

15,47% 0,26%

17,61% 1,57%

2,95% 0,82%

0,30% 0,68%

15,39% 0,56%

8,29% 2,75%

29,35% 0,25%

3 10

2 984 582

20,38%

28,09%

18,85%

15,57%

22,41%

33,95%

27,22%

14,54%

20,71%

2

10 545 069

75,21%

71,59%

70,33%

53,09%

77,27%

70,39%

73,86%

74,63%

88,94%

3,80% 4

10,61% 2

-12,58% 6

9,78% 3

-20,97% 9

-15,93% 7

-16,95% 8

-1,53% 5

25,03% 1

2

4

1

3

6

9

7

8

5

Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017

% Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Residential Rank by Y/Y Res Growth

-3,29%

Rank by Res Size

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings

Total RSA 477 038 857 749 1 853 199 469 910

WC 2,89% 3,39% 8,54% 3,15%

EC 1,52% 1,82% 13,85% 3,23%

GAU 3,06% 4,13% 15,73% 3,10%

KZN 5,94% 14,65% 16,46% 2,85%

MPUM 1,91% 4,34% 8,62% 4,79%

NC 2,31% 6,28% 13,63% 3,77%

FS 1,21% 8,67% 7,90% 2,60%

LIMP 3,46% 5,66% 7,21% 6,56%

NW 0,57% 3,80% 2,87% 0,93%

Rank by segment 7 8 4 9

Additions and alterations

812 021

6,83%

7,99%

3,65%

7,01%

3,07%

3,63%

5,77%

2,49%

2,89%

6

TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 4 469 917 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Residential -9,02%

24,79% -4,76%

28,41% 21,40%

29,67% -3,41%

46,91% -19,43%

22,73% -41,68%

29,61% -12,80%

26,14% 0,77%

25,37% 54,42%

11,06% -37,87%

GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 15 2017 014 986 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & Non -5,07% Res Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth

100,00% 1,54% 4

100,00% 13,48% 2

100,00% -10,05% 5

100,00% -6,17% 7

100,00% -26,87% 9

100,00% -15,02% 6

100,00% -12,95% 3

100,00% 8,44% 1

100,00% 12,44% 8

3

4

1

2

6

9

5

7

8

1 3 3 485 253 1 327 916 1 470 317 1 173 130 4 955 570 2 501 046 29,67% 46,91%

6 442 340 130 125 572 465 22,73%

9 80 277 33 775 114 052 29,61%

7 374 282 132 487 506 769 26,14%

8 281 737 95 778 377 515 25,37%

5 566 126 70 432 636 558 11,06%

Rank by Non Res Size Rank by Total Size RSA *Dec 2017

26

10 545 069 4 469 917 15 014 986

2 4 3 251 881 735 257 1 072 119 291 754 4 324 000 1 027 011 24,79% 28,41%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: RES BPP BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2017

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

RES BLDNG PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: *YTD 2017: M2 (* DEC) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA Chart 88 (3))

WC EC GAU KZN MPUM NC FS LIMP NW Rank by segment size SA

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 Rank by Res Size TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 Rank by Non Res Size GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2017 Rank by Total Size RSA

27

Rank by segment size SA 5 1 3 10 2

NW

LIMP

FS

NC

MPUM

KZN

GAU

EC

WC

8,23% 30,41% 29,35% 0,25% 20,71% 88,94% 5 11,06% 8

3,81% 45,23% 8,29% 2,75% 14,54% 74,63% 8 25,37% 7

1,41% 29,28% 15,39% 0,56% 27,22% 73,86% 7 26,14% 5

1,81% 33,64% 0,30% 0,68% 33,95% 70,39% 9 29,61% 9

6,58% 44,51% 2,95% 0,82% 22,41% 77,27% 6 22,73% 6

2,86% 15,49% 17,61% 1,57% 15,57% 53,09% 3 46,91% 2

8,60% 27,15% 15,47% 0,26% 18,85% 70,33% 1 29,67% 1

8,14% 28,96% 5,55% 0,86% 28,09% 71,59% 4 28,41% 4

6,72% 29,52% 17,95% 0,63% 20,38% 75,21% 2 24,79% 3

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

5

8

7

9

6

3

1

4

2

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: NON RES BPP BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2017

45%

40%

35%

25%

30%

20%

15%

10%

NW

LIMP

FS

NC

MPUM

KZN

GAU

EC

WC

0,57% 3,80% 2,87% 0,93% 2,89% 11,06% 8 88,94% 5

3,46% 5,66% 7,21% 6,56% 2,49% 25,37% 7 74,63% 8

1,21% 8,67% 7,90% 2,60% 5,77% 26,14% 5 73,86% 7

2,31% 6,28% 13,63% 3,77% 3,63% 29,61% 9 70,39% 9

1,91% 4,34% 8,62% 4,79% 3,07% 22,73% 6 77,27% 6

5,94% 14,65% 16,46% 2,85% 7,01% 46,91% 2 53,09% 3

3,06% 4,13% 15,73% 3,10% 3,65% 29,67% 1 70,33% 1

1,52% 1,82% 13,85% 3,23% 7,99% 28,41% 4 71,59% 4

2,89% 3,39% 8,54% 3,15% 6,83% 24,79% 3 75,21% 2

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

5

8

7

9

6

3

1

4

2

5%

0%

NON RES BLDNG PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: * YTD 2017: M2 (* DEC) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA Chart 88(4))

WC EC GAU KZN MPUM NC FS LIMP NW Rank by segment size SA

Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 Rank by Non Res Size TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 Rank by Res Size GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2017 Rank by Total Size RSA

28

Rank by segment size SA 7 8 4 9 6

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

29

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

SENSE MAKING UPDATE: YEAR TO DATE 2018 (MARCH 2018) Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU REPORT OUTLINE SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION: SLIDES 3 – 10 SECTION 2: SLIDES 11 - 24 Analysis of trends in BPP: YTD Actual and YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 2,1: SLIDES 25 - 28 Analysis of trends in BPP: *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018, BPP by Province SECTION 3: SLIDES 29 - 57 Analysis of trends in BC; *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 4: SLIDES 58 - 68 Connecting the dots: Analysis of trends in GFCF Res, Non Res and Total Building; *YTD Actual and Forecast for 2018 - 2025 © BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: BUILDINGS COMPLETED BY SEGMENT: YTD ACTUAL 2017 RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): *CUM YTD ACTUAL 2018 m2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 103 678 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 568 225

Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL

% 7,81% 42,79%

R*1000 568 388 4 172 980

% 5,87% 43,09%

346 138 28 057 281 820 1 327 918 69,79% 1 327 918

26,07% 2,11% 21,22% 100,00%

2 751 040 212 631 1 980 148 9 685 187 69,22% 9 685 187

28,40% 2,20% 20,45% 100,00%

m2 135 737 52 775 246 148

% 23,62% 9,18% 42,83%

R*1000 1 255 266 417 818 1 395 848

% 29,14% 9,70% 32,40%

39 917

6,94%

304 243

7,06%

NON RES BLDNGS COMP (BC): *YTD ACTUAL 2018 Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings

Additions and alterations TOTAL GRAND TOTAL * March 2018

30

100 182 574 759 30,21% 1 902 677 1 902 677 574 759

17,43% 100,00%

934 374 4 307 549 30,78% 13 992 736 13 992 736 4 307 549

21,69% 100,00%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDINGS COMPLETED: YTD ACTUAL 2018

PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDINGS COMPLETED: *YTD ACTUAL 2018 (*MARCH) Houses R4,74 Billion

Additions & Alterations

Additions & Alterations

R1,98 Billion

% Contribution of Building Type to Total Value of Buildings Completed: YTD 2017 Residential

69,22% R9,69 Billion BPP/BC = 1,77 NBIP = 77%*BC

Total Value R13,99 Billion BPP/BC = 1,82 NBIP = 82%*BC

Industrial & Warehousing R1,40 Billion

R0,93 Billion

Non Res

30,78% R4,31 Billion BPP/BC = 1,92 NBIP = 92%*BC

Offices & Banking R01,26 Billion Other R0,21 Billion

Total Additions & Alterations

20,80% Flats & Townhouses R2,75 Billion

31

R1,84 Billion

Other R0,30 Billion Shopping R0,42 Billion

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BC: YTD ACTUAL AND FORECAST 2018

Mar-18 BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (m2 and value) Residential BC (m2) Residential BC (R) Non Residential BC (m2) Non Residential BC (R) Total BC (m2) Total BC (R) Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R) RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres -59 134 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres -59 581

-36,32% -9,49%

R*1000 -243 453 -297 846

-29,99% -6,66%

-15,59% -38,80% -0,09% -13,13% -13,13%

-533 641 -157 478 236 203 -996 215 -996 215

-16,25% -42,55% 13,54% -9,33% -9,33%

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 Office and banking -66 293 -32,81% Shopping -100 885 -65,65% Industrial and warehouse 34 028 16,04%

R*1000 -567 082 -913 363 211 827

-31,12% -68,61% 17,89%

Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RES

Other buildings

Additions and alterations TOTAL NON RES TOTAL RES & NON RES * March 2018

32

2015 vs 2014 7,48% 13,42% -8,54% -3,72% 2,07% 7,34% 133,32% -1,86%

2016 vs 2015 2,07% 9,28% 0,85% 6,31% 1,70% 8,34% 11,72% 9,52%

-63 927 -17 790 -266 -200 698 -200 698

2 997

8,12%

54 643

21,89%

-135 -130 288 -130 288 -330 986 -330 986

-0,13% -18,48% -18,48% -14,82% -14,82%

-13 430 -1 227 405 -1 227 405 -2 223 620 -2 223 620

-1,42% -22,18% -22,18% -13,71% -13,71%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act FC 2015 2016 2017 vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST 0,25% -13,13% 2,07% 0,25% 7,48% 9,92% -9,33% 9,28% 9,92% 13,42% 22,67% -18,48% 0,85% 22,67% -8,54% 39,91% -22,18% 6,31% 39,91% -3,72% 6,98% -14,82% 1,70% 6,98% 2,07% 19,29% -13,71% 8,34% 19,29% 7,34% 6,86% -15,80% 133,32% 1,71% 6,86% 21,09% -16,96% 14,54% 8,17% 21,09%

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres -4 572 -0,66% Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 113 865 3,97% Flats and townhouses -92 234 -5,99% Other buildings -157 451 -68,69%

2018 FORECAST -1,56% 0,80% -21,93% -20,97% -8,57% -7,17% -8,03% -6,58%

R*1000 176 858 1 625 471 -518 215 -1 562 166

5,26% 7,89% -4,12% -71,26%

3,29% -1,56% -1,56%

650 192 372 139 372 139

8,44% 0,80% 0,80%

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 Office and banking -137 615 -21,98% Shopping -527 349 -54,50% Industrial and warehouse -86 239 -7,49% Other buildings -21 452 -7,90% Additions and alterations 24 120 6,07% TOTAL NON RES -748 536 -21,93% -748 536 -21,93% TOTAL RES & NON RES -850 359 -8,57% * March 2018 -850 359 -8,57%

R*1000 573 684 -159 805 513 174 138 050 962 984 -5 628 054 -5 628 054 -5 255 916 -5 255 916

13,85% -3,95% 8,76% 7,24% 29,81% -20,97% -20,97% -7,17% -7,17%

Additions and alterations TOTAL RES

38 569 -101 823 -101 823

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BC: % CHANGE 2018 VS 2017 (R*1000)

PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDINGS COMPLETED: YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 (R*1000) (MARCH) Other - 42,56% Flats & Townhouses - 16,25%

Additions & Alterations

+ 13,54% % Change in Value of Building Plans Passed between YTD 2018 and 2017 by Building Type

Dwellings > 80 m2 - 6,66%

Residential - 9,33%

Dwellings < 80 m2 - 29,99%

All Buildings - 13,71% Non Residential - 22,18%

Offices & Banking - 31,12%

Shopping - 68,61% Additions & Alterations

Industrial & Warehousing + 17,89%

- 1,42%

33

Other + 21,89%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP: CUM YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 RES BPP BY SEGMENT: TOTAL RSA: *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 (* March) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; Chart 93) 0%

100%

200%

400%

500%

600%

700%

122,04%

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres

97,71%

68,45%

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres

65,08%

m2

R*1000

40,47%

Flats and townhouses

32,73%

436,88%

Other buildings

646,38%

59,90%

Additions and alterations

69,52%

TOTAL RES

34

300%

2,75% 4,89%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT RRALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD FC 2018 VS 2017 NON RES AND TOTAL BPP BY SEGMENT: TOTAL RSA: CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 (* Jan)

(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA, Chart 96) 495,26% 531,07%

Office and banking

570,82% 611,94%

Shopping

4,80% 10,24%

Industrial and warehouse

m2

R*1000

75,19% 89,22%

Other buildings

231,51% 260,00%

Additions and alterations

4,05% 13,91%

TOTAL

6,13% 8,42%

GRAND TOTAL 0%

35

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2017

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Res Rank by Y/Y Res Growth Rank by Res Size * Dec 2017

Total RSA W estern Cape Eastern Cape 7,39% 6,81% 693 713 28,38% 38,88% 2 871 035 14,84% 2,73% 1 539 872 2,15% 1,32% 229 216 18,07% 29,78% 1 173 145 70,82% 79,53% 6 506 981 0,25% 11,92% -16,85% 2 5 2 5 65,59%

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest 8,41% 0,49% 12,09% 0,19% 8,74% 17,45% 6,23% 30,49% 17,32% 42,93% 20,54% 27,46% 36,53% 45,90% 18,18% 13,23% 14,21% 3,06% 26,58% 10,42% 12,76% 3,20% 1,33% 0,00% 1,49% 0,22% 3,93% 0,24% 6,44% 8,71% 11,68% 29,29% 25,57% 2,30% 10,00% 66,73% 41,09% 80,92% 54,56% 88,58% 70,63% 75,12% 2,31% 13,55% -41,76% -40,50% -32,44% 8,28% -26,21% 4 1 9 8 7 3 6 1 3 8 9 6 7 4

Rank by Total Segment Size 6,99% 6 28,94% 1 15,52% 2 2,31% 8 11,83% 4 65,59% 0,25%

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 W estern Cape Eastern Cape Total RSA Office and banking 4,15% 1,10% 626 059 Shopping 5,98% 0,62% 967 611 Industrial and warehouse 10,19% 6,76% 1 151 206 Other buildings 3,39% 1,69% 271 584 Additions and alterations 5,46% 10,31% 397 407 29,18% 20,47% TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 20173 413 867 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Res 22,67% 25,20% 45,79% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 5 3 34,41% Rank by Non Res Size 2 5 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 9 920 2017 848 100,00% 100,00% % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & 6,98% Non Res 16,84% -5,79% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 100,00% 2 5 Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 * Dec 2017

36

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest 9,97% 4,87% 1,37% 5,88% 1,73% 1,36% 2,13% 4,91% 35,93% 6,64% 2,27% 0,66% 2,81% 8,56% 13,77% 12,19% 7,78% 4,50% 0,90% 18,64% 6,02% 2,44% 1,48% 1,06% 26,13% 6,88% 4,83% 0,43% 2,17% 4,44% 2,24% 6,67% 1,24% 1,74% 7,74% 33,27% 58,91% 19,08% 45,44% 11,42% 29,37% 24,88% 23,88% 49,34% -47,54% 63,01% -77,75% -6,87% 42,71% 6 2 8 1 9 7 4 1 3 7 8 9 6 4 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 7,93% 34,62% -41,66% -21,07% -48,07% 0,84% -25,46% 3 1 8 6 9 4 7 1 3 6 9 8 7 4

Rank by Total Segment Size 6,31% 7 9,75% 5 11,60% 3 2,74% 9 4,01% 8 34,41% 22,67%

6,98%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: RES BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2017

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

RES BLDNGS COMPLETED (BC) BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: *YTD 2017: M2 (* DEC) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BC SA Chart 88 (2))

Western Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern Cape Free State Limpopo Northwest Total Rank by Segment Size SA (%)

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Res Rank by Y/Y Res Growth Rank by Res Size TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017

37

Rank by Segment Size SA (%) 6 1 2 8 4

Total

Northwes Limpopo t

6,99% 6,23% 28,94% 45,90% 15,52% 12,76% 2,31% 0,24% 11,83% 10,00% 65,59% 75,12% 0,25% -26,21% 6 4 34,41% 24,88%

Free State

Northern Mpumala Kwazulu Eastern Western Gauteng Cape nga Natal Cape Cape

17,45% 8,74% 0,19% 36,53% 27,46% 20,54% 10,42% 26,58% 3,06% 3,93% 0,22% 1,49% 2,30% 25,57% 29,29% 70,63% 88,58% 54,56% 8,28% -32,44% -40,50% 3 7 8 7 6 9 29,37% 11,42% 45,44%

12,09% 42,93% 14,21% 0,00% 11,68% 80,92% -41,76% 9 8 19,08%

0,49% 17,32% 13,23% 1,33% 8,71% 41,09% 13,55% 1 3 58,91%

8,41% 6,81% 7,39% 30,49% 38,88% 28,38% 18,18% 2,73% 14,84% 3,20% 1,32% 2,15% 6,44% 29,78% 18,07% 66,73% 79,53% 70,82% 2,31% -16,85% 11,92% 4 5 2 1 5 2 33,27% 20,47% 29,18%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: NON RES BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2017

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

NON RES BLDNGS COMPLETED (BC) BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: *YTD 2017: M2 (* DEC) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA Chart 88(3))

Western Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern Cape Free State Limpopo Northwest Total Rank by Segment Size SA (%)

Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Res Rank by Non Res Size TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2017 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & Non Res Rank by Total size RSA

38

Rank by Segment Northwes Free Total Limpopo Size SA t State (%) 7 6,31% 2,13% 1,36% 1,73% 5 9,75% 8,56% 2,81% 0,66% 3 11,60% 6,02% 18,64% 0,90% 9 2,74% 0,43% 4,83% 6,88% 8 4,01% 7,74% 1,74% 1,24% 34,41% 24,88% 29,37% 11,42% 22,67% 42,71% -6,87% -77,75% 4 6 9 65,59% 75,12% 70,63% 88,58%

Northern Mpumala Kwazulu Eastern Western Gauteng Cape nga Natal Cape Cape 5,88% 2,27% 4,50% 26,13% 6,67% 45,44% 63,01% 8 54,56%

1,37% 6,64% 7,78% 1,06% 2,24% 19,08% -47,54% 7 80,92%

4,87% 35,93% 12,19% 1,48% 4,44% 58,91% 49,34% 3 41,09%

9,97% 4,91% 13,77% 2,44% 2,17% 33,27% 23,88% 1 66,73%

1,10% 0,62% 6,76% 1,69% 10,31% 20,47% 45,79% 5 79,53%

4,15% 5,98% 10,19% 3,39% 5,46% 29,18% 25,20% 2 70,82%

100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 6,98%

-25,46%

0,84%

4

7

-48,07% -21,07% -41,66% 34,62% 8

9

6

3

7,93%

-5,79%

16,84%

1

5

2

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDINGS COMPLETED: YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017

The 2018 YTD Actual Residential BC (March) vs the same period in 2017 shows a DECREASE of - 13,13% in m2; and a DECREASE of – 9,33% in value. The 2018 YTD Actual Non Residential BC (March) vs 2017 recorded a DECREASE of +18,48% in m2; and of – 22,18% in value. Therefore, the 2018 YTD Actual Total BC (March) vs 2017 shows a DECREASE of – 14,82% in m2 and of – 13,71% in value. Mar-18 BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (m2 and value) Residential BC (m2) Residential BC (R) Non Residential BC (m2) Non Residential BC (R) Total BC (m2) Total BC (R) Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R)

2015 vs 2014 7,48% 13,42% -8,54% -3,72% 2,07% 7,34% 133,32% -1,86%

2016 vs 2015 2,07% 9,28% 0,85% 6,31% 1,70% 8,34% 11,72% 9,52%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act FC 2015 2016 2017 vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST 0,25% -13,13% 2,07% 0,25% 7,48% 9,92% -9,33% 9,28% 9,92% 13,42% 22,67% -18,48% 0,85% 22,67% -8,54% 39,91% -22,18% 6,31% 39,91% -3,72% 6,98% -14,82% 1,70% 6,98% 2,07% 19,29% -13,71% 8,34% 19,29% 7,34% 6,86% -15,80% 133,32% 1,71% 6,86% 21,09% -16,96% 14,54% 8,17% 21,09%

2018 FORECAST -1,56% 0,80% -21,93% -20,97% -8,57% -7,17% -8,03% -6,58%

The 2018 YTD Forecast (March) Residential BC vs the same period in 2017 shows a DECREASE of – 1,56% in m2; and an INCREASE of + 0,80% in value. The 2018 YTD Forecast (March) Non Residential BC vs 2017 records a DECREASE of – 21,93% in m2; and a DECREASE of – 20,97% in value. Therefore the 2018 YTD Forecast (March) Total BC vs 2017 shows a DECREASE of – 8,57% in m2 and of – 7,17% in value. 39

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDINGS COMPLETED BY SEGMENT: YTD FORECAST 2018

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 m2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 689 141 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 2 984 900 Flats and townhouses 1 447 638 Other buildings 71 765 Additions and alterations TOTAL

1 211 714 6 405 158 70,62% 6 405 158 NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST m2 Office and banking 488 444 Shopping 440 262 Industrial and warehouse 1 064 967 Other buildings 250 132 Additions and alterations 421 527 TOTAL 2 665 331 29,38% TOTAL 9 070 489 * March 2018 9 070 489

40

% 10,76% 46,60% 22,60% 1,12%

R*1000 3 536 535 22 220 521 12 055 414 630 004

% 7,56% 47,49% 25,76% 1,35%

18,92% 100,00%

8 350 808 46 793 281 68,81% 46 793 281

17,85% 100,00%

R*1000 4 716 705 3 885 217 6 373 011 2 045 477 4 193 130 21 213 540 31,19% 68 006 820 68 006 820

% 22,23% 18,31% 30,04% 9,64% 19,77% 100,00%

2018 % 18,33% 16,52% 39,96% 9,38% 15,82% 100,00%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDINGS COMPLETED: YTD FC 2018

BMi

PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDINGS COMPLETED: *YTD FORECAST 2018 (* MARCH) Houses R25,76 Million

Additions & Alterations R8,35 Billion

Residential

68,81% R46,79 Billion BPP/BC = 1,77 NBIP = 77%*BC

Additions & Alterations

% Contribution of Building Type to Total Value of Buildings Completed: YTD 2018

Total Value R68,01 Billion BPP/BC = 1,82 NBIP = 82%*BC

Industrial & Warehousing R6,37 Billion

R4,19 Billion

Non Res

31,19% R21,21 Billion BPP/BC = 1,92 NBIP = 92%*BC

Offices & Banking R4,72 Billion Other R0,63 Billion

Total Additions & Alterations

18,44% Flats & Townhouses R12,06 Billion

41

R12,54 Billion

Other R2,05 Billion Shopping R3,89 Billion

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMI

CURRENT REALITY: RES BC BY SEGMENT: YTD FC 2018 (MARCH)

4

1

R68,01 BILLION

BUILDING INVESTMENT

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R46,79 BILLION (68,81%)

5 NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R21,21 BILLION (31,19%)

* Constant 2016 Prices

42

2

3

DWELLINGS < 80 M2 (7,56%)

DWELLINGS < 80 M2 (10,76%)

R3,54 BILLION

0,69 MILLION M2

DWELLINGS > 80 M2 (47,49%)

DWELLINGS > 80 M2 (46,60%)

R22,22 BILLION

2,98 MILLION M2

FLATS AND TOWNHOUSES (25,76%)

FLATS AND TOWNHOUSES (22,60%)

R12,06 BILLION

1,45 MILLION M2

OTHER (1,35%)

OTHER (1,12%)

R0,63 BILLION

0,72 MILLION M2

ADDITIONS AND ALTERATIONS (17,85%)

ADDITIONS AND ALTERATIONS (18,92%)

R8,35 BILLION

1,21 MILLION M2

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R46,79 BILLION (68,81%)

6,41 MILLION M2 (70,62%)

4

1

2

5

3

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMI

NON RES BC BY SEGMENT: YTD FORECAST 2018 (MARCH)

3

1

R68,01 BILLION

BUILDING INVESTMENT

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R46,79 BILLION (68,81%)

2

5

OFFICES AND BANKING (22,23%)

OFFICES AND BANKING (18,33%)

R4,72 BILLION

0,49 MILLION M2

SHOPPING (18,31%)

SHOPPING (16,52%)

R3,89 BILLION

0,44 MILLION M2

INDUSTRIAL WAREHOUSING (30,04%)

INDUSTRIAL & WAREHOUSING (39,96%)

R6,37 BILLION

1,06 MILLION M2

OTHER (9,64%)

OTHER (9,38%)

R2,05 BILLION

0,25 MILLION M2

ADDITIONS AND ALTERATIONS (19,77%)

ADDITIONS AND ALTERATIONS (15,82%)

R4,19 BILLION

0,42 MILLION M2

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R21,21 BILLION (31,19%)

3,41 MILLION M2 (34,37%)

3

2

1

5

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R21,21 BILLION (31,19%)

4

4

* Constant 2016 Prices

43

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BC BY SEGMENT: YTD ACTUAL AND FORECAST 2018 VS 2017

Mar-18 BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (m2 and value) Residential BC (m2) Residential BC (R) Non Residential BC (m2) Non Residential BC (R) Total BC (m2) Total BC (R) Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R)

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres -59 134 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres -59 581

2015 vs 2014 7,48% 13,42% -8,54% -3,72% 2,07% 7,34% 133,32% -1,86%

2016 vs 2015 2,07% 9,28% 0,85% 6,31% 1,70% 8,34% 11,72% 9,52%

-36,32% -9,49%

R*1000 -243 453 -297 846

-29,99% -6,66%

-15,59% -38,80% -0,09% -13,13% -13,13%

-533 641 -157 478 236 203 -996 215 -996 215

-16,25% -42,55% 13,54% -9,33% -9,33%

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 Office and banking -66 293 -32,81% Shopping -100 885 -65,65% Industrial and warehouse 34 028 16,04%

R*1000 -567 082 -913 363 211 827

-31,12% -68,61% 17,89%

Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RES

Other buildings

Additions and alterations TOTAL NON RES TOTAL RES & NON RES * March 2018

44

-63 927 -17 790 -266 -200 698 -200 698

2 997

8,12%

54 643

21,89%

-135 -130 288 -130 288 -330 986 -330 986

-0,13% -18,48% -18,48% -14,82% -14,82%

-13 430 -1 227 405 -1 227 405 -2 223 620 -2 223 620

-1,42% -22,18% -22,18% -13,71% -13,71%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act FC 2015 2016 2017 vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST 0,25% -13,13% 2,07% 0,25% 7,48% 9,92% -9,33% 9,28% 9,92% 13,42% 22,67% -18,48% 0,85% 22,67% -8,54% 39,91% -22,18% 6,31% 39,91% -3,72% 6,98% -14,82% 1,70% 6,98% 2,07% 19,29% -13,71% 8,34% 19,29% 7,34% 6,86% -15,80% 133,32% 1,71% 6,86% 21,09% -16,96% 14,54% 8,17% 21,09%

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres -4 572 -0,66% Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 113 865 3,97% Flats and townhouses -92 234 -5,99% Other buildings -157 451 -68,69%

2018 FORECAST -1,56% 0,80% -21,93% -20,97% -8,57% -7,17% -8,03% -6,58%

R*1000 176 858 1 625 471 -518 215 -1 562 166

5,26% 7,89% -4,12% -71,26%

3,29% -1,56% -1,56%

650 192 372 139 372 139

8,44% 0,80% 0,80%

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 Office and banking -137 615 -21,98% Shopping -527 349 -54,50% Industrial and warehouse -86 239 -7,49% Other buildings -21 452 -7,90% Additions and alterations 24 120 6,07% TOTAL NON RES -748 536 -21,93% -748 536 -21,93% TOTAL RES & NON RES -850 359 -8,57% * March 2018 -850 359 -8,57%

R*1000 573 684 -159 805 513 174 138 050 962 984 -5 628 054 -5 628 054 -5 255 916 -5 255 916

13,85% -3,95% 8,76% 7,24% 29,81% -20,97% -20,97% -7,17% -7,17%

Additions and alterations TOTAL RES

38 569 -101 823 -101 823

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BC: % CHANGE CUM YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 PRIVATE SECTOR BC: YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 (R*1000) (* MARCH) Other - 71,26% Flats & Townhouses - 4,12%

Additions & Alterations

+ 8,44% % Change in Value of Buildings Completed between YTD FC 2018 and 2017 by Building Type

Dwellings > 80 m2 + 7,89%

Residential + 0,80%

Dwellings < 80 m2 + 5,26%

All Buildings - 7,10% Non Residential - 20,97%

Offices & Banking + 13,85%

Shopping - 3,95% Additions & Alterations

Industrial & Warehousing + 8,76%

+ 29,81% Other + 7,24%

45

© BMI-BRSCU


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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: *YTD 2017

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 Total RSA W estern Cape Eastern Cape Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 693 713 234 573 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 2 871 035 901 021 Flats and townhouses 1 539 872 471 355 Other buildings 229 216 68 156 Additions and alterations 1 173 145 573 759 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD 2017 6 506 981 2 248 864 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Residential 0,25% 11,92% Rank by Y/Y Res Growth 2 Rank by Res Size 2 Check 6 506 981 2 248 864 34,56% RES BC BY PROVINCE * Dec 2017 NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT

20 901 337 758 119 313 1 224 364 8 378 730 097 4 056 128 661 91 389 258 531 244 037 2 679 411 -16,85% 2,31% 5 4 5 1 244 037 2 679 411 3,75% 41,18%

7 251 29 454 120 12 993 254 122 104 588 12 929 40 809 194 080 34 621 1 928 39 507 19 489 0 935 331 127 750 28 465 18 437 38 008 602 692 197 128 34 349 131 648 13,55% -41,76% -40,50% -32,44% 1 9 8 7 3 8 9 6 602 692 197 128 34 349 131 648 9,26% 3,03% 0,53% 2,02%

Rank by Segment

Total

30 198 20 465 63 204 150 685 18 021 41 885 6 803 785 3 979 32 827 122 205 246 647 8,28% -26,21% 3 6 7 4 122 205 246 647 1,88% 3,79%

693 713 2 871 035 1 539 872 229 216 1 173 145 6 506 981 0,25%

6,99% 28,94% 15,52% 2,31% 11,83% 65,59%

6 506 981 100,00%

65,59%

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest 400 529 71 435 3 334 3 704 2 573 2 349 6 983 197 137 527 089 16 180 1 426 983 4 855 28 110 553 011 178 808 18 942 2 830 1 340 32 245 19 756 98 015 21 667 2 587 16 448 10 231 8 348 1 402 87 234 65 119 5 451 4 200 1 840 3 011 25 423 1 335 926 864 118 46 494 28 608 16 967 50 808 81 674 23,88% 49,34% -47,54% 63,01% -77,75% -6,87% 42,71% 6 2 8 1 9 7 4 1 3 7 8 9 6 4 4 015 337 1 466 810 243 622 62 957 148 615 173 013 328 321 7,93% 34,62% -41,66% -21,07% -48,07% 0,84% -25,46% 3 1 8 6 9 4 7 1 3 6 9 8 7 4 1 335 926 864 118 41 482 28 608 16 967 50 808 81 674 4 015 337 1 466 810 243 622 62 957 148 615 173 013 328 321 39,13% 25,31% 1,36% 0,84% 0,50% 1,49% 2,39% 40,47% 14,79% 2,46% 0,63% 1,50% 1,74% 3,31%

Total 626 059 967 611 1 151 206 271 584 397 407 3 413 867 22,67%

AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2

W estern Cape Eastern Cape Total RSA Office and banking 626 059 131 791 3 361 Shopping 967 611 189 939 1 892 Industrial and warehouse 1 151 206 323 540 20 734 Other buildings 271 584 107 693 5 193 Additions and alterations 397 407 173 500 31 629 TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD 20173 413 867 926 463 62 809 % Change Cum YTD 2016 vs 2015 Non Residential 22,67% 25,20% 45,79% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 5 3 Rank by Non Res Size 2 5 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 9 920 2014 848 3 175 327 306 846 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & 6,98% Non Res 16,84% -5,79% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 2 5 Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 Check Non Res 3 413 867 926 463 62 809 Check Total 9 920 848 3 175 327 306 846 NON RES BC BY PROVINCE 27,14% 1,84% TOTAL RES & NON RES BC BY PROVINCE 32,01% 3,09%

46

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest

9 920 848 6,98%

6,31% 9,75% 11,60% 2,74% 4,01% 34,41%

6 1 2 8 4

Rank by segment 7 5 3 9 8

100,00%

3 408 855 9 920 848 100,00% 100,00%

© BMI-BRSCU


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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: *YTD 2018

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2018: M2

Total RSA WC EC Gauteng KZN Mpum NC FS LIMP NW Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 103 678 40 275 1 454 44 610 1 930 4 442 63 5 244 1 415 4 245 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 568 225 166 736 20 258 219 989 54 604 34 787 1 636 8 021 18 124 44 070 Flats and townhouses 346 138 126 844 369 148 982 23 431 2 769 146 15 929 2 706 24 962 Other buildings 28 057 22 183 0 1 260 858 1 916 0 402 1 438 0 Additions and alterations 281 820 97 754 17 429 57 366 47 643 8 735 6 290 9 192 1 238 36 173 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD 2017 1 327 918 453 792 39 510 472 207 128 466 52 649 8 135 38 788 24 921 109 450 % Change Cum YTD 2018 vs 2017: Residential-13,13% -11,12% -34,96% -24,30% -15,38% -6,46% 26,89% 0,00% 4,29% 94,59% Rank by Y/Y Res Growth 6 9 8 7 5 2 4 3 1 Rank by Res Size 2 6 1 3 5 9 7 8 4 Check 1 327 918 453 792 39 510 472 207 128 466 52 649 8 135 38 788 24 921 109 450 RES BC BY PROVINCE 34,17% 2,98% 35,56% 9,67% 3,96% 0,61% 2,92% 1,88% 8,24% * March 2018 NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2018: M2 W estern Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest Total RSA Office and banking 135 737 14 256 392 109 475 885 256 0 5 768 3 276 1 429 Shopping 52 775 27 050 413 15 503 1 705 520 0 1 439 5 271 874 Industrial and warehouse 246 148 53 578 7 052 149 491 23 298 5 850 0 535 3 264 3 080 Other buildings 39 917 18 814 118 12 067 5 337 0 0 326 0 3 255 Additions and alterations 100 182 44 992 7 134 23 194 11 585 3 394 1 792 1 349 632 6 110 TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD 2017 574 759 158 690 15 109 309 730 42 810 10 020 1 792 9 417 12 443 14 748 % Change Cum YTD 2016 vs 2015 Non Residential -18,48% -10,73% -36,61% -3,26% -70,48% -42,55% 6,22% 0,00% 91,40% 64,36% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 6 7 5 9 8 3 4 1 2 Rank by Non Res Size 2 4 1 3 7 9 8 6 5 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 1 902 2018 677 612 482 54 619 % Change Cum YTD 2018 vs 2017: Total Res & -14,82% Non Res -11,02% -35,42% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 2 5 Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 Check Non Res 574 759 158 690 15 109 Check Total 1 902 677 612 482 54 619 NON RES BC BY PROVINCE 27,61% 2,63% TOTAL RES & NON RES BC BY PROVINCE 32,19% 2,87% *March 2018

47

781 937 -17,16% 3 1 309 730 781 937 53,89% 41,10%

171 276 62 669 -42,30% -15,00% 1 8 3 6 42 810 10 020 171 276 62 669 7,45% 1,74% 9,00% 3,29%

9 927 22,59% 6 9 1 792 9 927 0,31% 0,52%

48 205 13,40% 9 8 9 417 48 205 1,64% 2,53%

37 364 22,92% 4 7 12 443 37 364 2,16% 1,96%

124 198 90,43% 7 4 14 748 124 198 2,57% 6,53%

Total 103 678 568 225 346 138 28 057 281 820 1 327 918 -13,13%

7,81% 42,79% 26,07% 2,11% 21,22% 100,00%

Rank by Segment size SA (m2) 6 1 2 8 3

1 327 918 100,00%

Total 135 737 52 775 246 148 39 917 100 182 574 759 -18,48%

23,62% 9,18% 42,83% 6,94% 17,43% 100,00%

segment 5 8 4 9 7

1 902 677 -14,82%

574 759 1 902 677 100,00% 100,00%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: *YTD 2017

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Res Rank by Y/Y Res Growth Rank by Res Size * Dec 2017

Total RSA W estern Cape Eastern Cape 7,39% 6,81% 693 713 28,38% 38,88% 2 871 035 14,84% 2,73% 1 539 872 2,15% 1,32% 229 216 18,07% 29,78% 1 173 145 70,82% 79,53% 6 506 981 0,25% 11,92% -16,85% 2 5 2 5 65,59%

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest 8,41% 0,49% 12,09% 0,19% 8,74% 17,45% 6,23% 30,49% 17,32% 42,93% 20,54% 27,46% 36,53% 45,90% 18,18% 13,23% 14,21% 3,06% 26,58% 10,42% 12,76% 3,20% 1,33% 0,00% 1,49% 0,22% 3,93% 0,24% 6,44% 8,71% 11,68% 29,29% 25,57% 2,30% 10,00% 66,73% 41,09% 80,92% 54,56% 88,58% 70,63% 75,12% 2,31% 13,55% -41,76% -40,50% -32,44% 8,28% -26,21% 4 1 9 8 7 3 6 1 3 8 9 6 7 4

Rank by Total Segment Size 6,99% 6 28,94% 1 15,52% 2 2,31% 8 11,83% 4 65,59% 0,25%

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 W estern Cape Eastern Cape Total RSA Office and banking 4,15% 1,10% 626 059 Shopping 5,98% 0,62% 967 611 Industrial and warehouse 10,19% 6,76% 1 151 206 Other buildings 3,39% 1,69% 271 584 Additions and alterations 5,46% 10,31% 397 407 29,18% 20,47% TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 20173 413 867 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Res 22,67% 25,20% 45,79% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 5 3 34,41% Rank by Non Res Size 2 5 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 9 920 2017 848 100,00% 100,00% % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & 6,98% Non Res 16,84% -5,79% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 100,00% 2 5 Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 * Dec 2017

48

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest 9,97% 4,87% 1,37% 5,88% 1,73% 1,36% 2,13% 4,91% 35,93% 6,64% 2,27% 0,66% 2,81% 8,56% 13,77% 12,19% 7,78% 4,50% 0,90% 18,64% 6,02% 2,44% 1,48% 1,06% 26,13% 6,88% 4,83% 0,43% 2,17% 4,44% 2,24% 6,67% 1,24% 1,74% 7,74% 33,27% 58,91% 19,08% 45,44% 11,42% 29,37% 24,88% 23,88% 49,34% -47,54% 63,01% -77,75% -6,87% 42,71% 6 2 8 1 9 7 4 1 3 7 8 9 6 4 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 7,93% 34,62% -41,66% -21,07% -48,07% 0,84% -25,46% 3 1 8 6 9 4 7 1 3 6 9 8 7 4

Rank by Total Segment Size 6,31% 7 9,75% 5 11,60% 3 2,74% 9 4,01% 8 34,41% 22,67%

6,98%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: *YTD 2017

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2018: M2

Total RSA W estern Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 6,58% 2,66% 5,71% 1,13% 7,09% 0,63% 10,88% 3,79% 3,42% 103 678 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 27,22% 37,09% 28,13% 31,88% 55,51% 16,48% 16,64% 48,51% 35,48% 568 225 20,71% 0,68% 19,05% 13,68% 4,42% 1,47% 33,04% 7,24% 20,10% Flats and townhouses 346 138 Other buildings 3,62% 0,00% 0,16% 0,50% 3,06% 0,00% 0,83% 3,85% 0,00% 28 057 Additions and alterations 15,96% 31,91% 7,34% 27,82% 13,94% 63,36% 19,07% 3,31% 29,13% 281 820 74,09% 72,34% 60,39% 75,01% 84,01% 81,95% 80,46% 66,70% 88,13% TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 1 327 918 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Res -13,13% -11,12% -34,96% -24,30% -15,38% -6,46% 26,89% 0,00% 4,29% 94,59% Rank by Y/Y Res Growth 6 9 8 7 5 2 4 3 1 Rank by Res Size 2 6 1 3 5 9 7 8 4 * March 2018 69,79% NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2018: M2

W estern Cape Eastern Cape Total RSA Office and banking 2,33% 0,72% 135 737 Shopping 4,42% 0,76% 52 775 Industrial and warehouse 8,75% 12,91% 246 148 Other buildings 3,07% 0,22% 39 917 Additions and alterations 7,35% 13,06% 100 182 25,91% 27,66% TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 574 759 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Res -18,48% -10,73% -36,61% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 6 7 30,21% Rank by Non Res Size 2 4 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 1 902 2017 677 100,00% 100,00% % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & -14,82% Non Res -11,02% -35,42% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 2 5 100,00% Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 * March 2018

49

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest 14,00% 0,52% 0,41% 0,00% 11,97% 8,77% 1,15% 1,98% 1,00% 0,83% 0,00% 2,99% 14,11% 0,70% 19,12% 13,60% 9,33% 0,00% 1,11% 8,74% 2,48% 1,54% 3,12% 0,00% 0,00% 0,68% 0,00% 2,62% 2,97% 6,76% 5,42% 18,05% 2,80% 1,69% 4,92% 39,61% 24,99% 15,99% 18,05% 19,54% 33,30% 11,87% -3,26% -70,48% -42,55% 6,22% 0,00% 91,40% 64,36% 5 9 8 3 4 1 2 1 3 7 9 8 6 5 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% -17,16% -42,30% -15,00% 22,59% 13,40% 22,92% 90,43% 3 1 8 6 9 4 7 1 3 6 9 8 7 4

Total 5,45% 29,86% 18,19% 1,47% 14,81% 69,79% -13,13%

Total 7,13% 2,77% 12,94% 2,10% 5,27% 30,21% -18,48%

Rank by Segment Size SA (%) 6 1 2 8 3

Rank by Segment Size SA (%) 5 8 4 9 7

100,00% -14,82%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: *YTD 2017

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 Total RSA W estern Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 33,81% 3,01% 48,69% 1,05% 4,25% 0,02% 1,87% 4,35% 2,95% 693 713 31,38% 4,16% 42,65% 8,85% 3,64% 0,45% 1,42% 2,20% 5,25% Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 2 871 035 30,61% 0,54% 47,41% 12,60% 2,25% 0,13% 2,57% 1,17% 2,72% Flats and townhouses 1 539 872 Other buildings 29,73% 1,77% 56,13% 8,50% 0,00% 0,41% 0,14% 2,97% 0,34% 229 216 48,91% 7,79% 22,04% 10,89% 2,43% 1,57% 3,24% 0,34% 2,80% Additions and alterations 1 173 145 34,56% 3,75% 41,18% 9,26% 3,03% 0,53% 2,02% 1,88% 3,79% TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 6 506 981 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Residential 0,25% 2,15% 1,32% 3,20% 1,33% 0,00% 1,49% 0,22% 3,93% 0,24% Rank by Y/Y Res Growth 2 5 4 1 9 8 7 3 6 Rank by Res Size 2 5 1 3 8 9 6 7 4 * Dec 2017 65,59% NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 W estern Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest Total RSA Office and banking 21,05% 0,54% 63,98% 11,41% 0,53% 0,59% 0,41% 0,38% 1,12% 626 059 Shopping 19,63% 0,20% 20,37% 54,47% 1,67% 0,15% 0,10% 0,50% 2,91% 967 611 Industrial and warehouse 28,10% 1,80% 48,04% 15,53% 1,65% 0,25% 0,12% 2,80% 1,72% 1 151 206 Other buildings 39,65% 1,91% 36,09% 7,98% 0,95% 6,06% 3,77% 3,07% 0,52% 271 584 Additions and alterations 43,66% 7,96% 21,95% 16,39% 1,37% 1,06% 0,46% 0,76% 6,40% 397 407 27,14% 1,84% 39,13% 25,31% 1,36% 0,84% 0,50% 1,49% 2,39% TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 20173 413 867 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Residential 22,67% 29,18% 20,47% 33,27% 58,91% 19,08% 45,44% 11,42% 29,37% 24,88% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 5 3 6 2 8 1 9 7 4 34,41% Rank by Non Res Size 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 9 920 2017 848 61,70% 5,59% 80,31% 34,57% 4,39% 1,37% 2,52% 3,37% 6,18% % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & 6,98% Non Res 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 100,00% 2 5 3 1 8 6 9 4 7 Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 1 3 6 9 8 7 4 * Dec 2017

50

Total Rank SA 100,00% 6 100,00% 1 100,00% 2 100,00% 8 100,00% 4 100,00% 2,31%

Total Rank SA 100,00% 7 100,00% 5 100,00% 3 100,00% 9 100,00% 8 100,00% 34,41%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

RES & NON RES BUILDING ACTIVITY BY PROVINCE: *YTD ACTUAL 2017 (* DEC) RESIDENTIAL BC (M2)

R73,23 BILLION

BUILDING INVESTMENT

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R46,42 BILLION (63,40%)

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R26,80 BILLION (36,60%)

* Constant 2016 Prices

51

2

WESTERN CAPE 34,56%

4

EASTERN CAPE 3,78%

1

GAUTENG 41,17%

3

KWAZULU/NATAL 9,26%

6

MPUMALANGA 3,01%

9

NORTHERN CAPE 0,53%

8

FREE STATE 2,02%

7

LIMPOPO 1,88%

5

NORTH WEST 3,79%

NON RES BC (M2) WESTERN CAPE 27,18% EASTERN CAPE 1,82% GAUTENG 39,20% KWAZULU/NATAL 25,35% MPUMALANGA 1,22%

3 5 1 2 6

NORTHERN CAPE 0,84%

8

FREE STATE 0,50%

9

LIMPOPO 1,49%

7

NORTH WEST 2,40%

4

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 100,00%

TOTAL NON RESIFDENTIAL 100,00%

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

6,50 MILLION M2 (65,63%)

3,41 MILLION M2 (34,37%) © BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: *YTD 2018

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2018: M2 Total RSA W estern Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 38,85% 1,40% 43,03% 1,86% 4,28% 0,06% 5,06% 1,36% 4,09% 103 678 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 29,34% 3,57% 38,72% 9,61% 6,12% 0,29% 1,41% 3,19% 7,76% 568 225 Flats and townhouses 36,65% 0,11% 43,04% 6,77% 0,80% 0,04% 4,60% 0,78% 7,21% 346 138 Other buildings 79,06% 0,00% 4,49% 3,06% 6,83% 0,00% 1,43% 5,13% 0,00% 28 057 Additions and alterations 34,69% 6,18% 20,36% 16,91% 3,10% 2,23% 3,26% 0,44% 12,84% 281 820 34,17% 2,98% 35,56% 9,67% 3,96% 0,61% 2,92% 1,88% 8,24% TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 1 327 918 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Residential-13,13% 3,62% 0,00% 0,16% 0,50% 3,06% 0,00% 0,83% 3,85% 0,00% Rank by Y/Y Res Growth 6 9 8 7 5 2 4 3 1 Rank by Res Size 2 6 1 3 5 9 7 8 4 * March 2018 69,79% NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2018: M2 W estern Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest Total RSA Office and banking 10,50% 0,29% 80,65% 0,65% 0,19% 0,00% 4,25% 2,41% 1,05% 135 737 Shopping 51,26% 0,78% 29,38% 3,23% 0,99% 0,00% 2,73% 9,99% 1,66% 52 775 Industrial and warehouse 21,77% 2,86% 60,73% 9,47% 2,38% 0,00% 0,22% 1,33% 1,25% 246 148 Other buildings 47,13% 0,30% 30,23% 13,37% 0,00% 0,00% 0,82% 0,00% 8,15% 39 917 Additions and alterations 44,91% 7,12% 23,15% 11,56% 3,39% 1,79% 1,35% 0,63% 6,10% 100 182 27,61% 2,63% 53,89% 7,45% 1,74% 0,31% 1,64% 2,16% 2,57% TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 574 759

Total Rank SA 100,00% 6 100,00% 1 100,00% 2 100,00% 8 100,00% 3 100,00% 1,47%

Total Rank SA 100,00% 5 100,00% 8 100,00% 4 100,00% 9 100,00% 7 100,00%

% Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Residential -18,48% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 30,21% Rank by Non Res Size

25,91% 6 2

27,66% 7 2

39,61% 5 2

24,99% 9 2

15,99% 8 2

18,05% 3 2

19,54% 4 2

33,30% 1 2

11,87% 2 2

30,21%

GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 1 902 2017 677

32,19%

2,87%

41,10%

9,00%

3,29%

0,52%

2,53%

1,96%

6,53%

100,00%

% Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & -14,82% Non Res 100,00% 100,00% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 2 5 100,00% Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 * March 2018

100,00% 3 1

52

100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 1 8 6 9 4 7 3 6 9 8 7 4

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

RES & NON RES BUILDING ACTIVITY BY PROVINCE: *YTD ACTUAL 2018 (* MARCH) RESIDENTIAL BC (M2)

*YTD ACTUAL 2018 (* MARCH)

1,902 MILLION M2

* BUILDING INVESTMENT (M2)

* RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (M2)

1,328 MILLION (M2) (69,79%)

* NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (M2)

0,575 MILLION (M2) (30,21%)

* Constant 2016 Prices

53

2

WESTERN CAPE 34,17%

4

EASTERN CAPE 2,98%

1

GAUTENG 35,56%

3

KWAZULU/NATAL 9,67%

6

MPUMALANGA 3,96%

9

NORTHERN CAPE 0,61%

8

FREE STATE 2,92%

7

LIMPOPO 1,88%

5

NORTH WEST 8,24%

NON RES BC (M2) WESTERN CAPE 27,18% EASTERN CAPE 1,82% GAUTENG 39,20% KWAZULU/NATAL 25,35% MPUMALANGA 1,22%

3 5 1 2 6

NORTHERN CAPE 0,84%

8

FREE STATE 0,50%

9

LIMPOPO 1,49%

7

NORTH WEST 2,40%

4

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 100,00%

TOTAL NON RESIFDENTIAL 100,00%

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

1,328 MILLION M2 (69,79%)

0,575 MILLION M2 (30,21%) © BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDINGS COMPLETED BY SEGMENT: CUM YTD FORECAST 2017

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres -4 572 -0,66% Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 113 865 3,97% Flats and townhouses -92 234 -5,99% Other buildings -157 451 -68,69%

R*1000 176 858 1 625 471 -518 215 -1 562 166

5,26% 7,89% -4,12% -71,26%

3,29% -1,56% -1,56%

650 192 372 139 372 139

8,44% 0,80% 0,80%

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 Office and banking -137 615 -21,98% Shopping -527 349 -54,50% Industrial and warehouse -86 239 -7,49% Other buildings -21 452 -7,90% Additions and alterations 24 120 6,07% TOTAL NON RES -748 536 -21,93% -748 536 -21,93% TOTAL RES & NON RES -850 359 -8,57% * March 2018 -850 359 -8,57%

R*1000 573 684 -159 805 513 174 138 050 962 984 -5 628 054 -5 628 054 -5 255 916 -5 255 916

13,85% -3,95% 8,76% 7,24% 29,81% -20,97% -20,97% -7,17% -7,17%

Additions and alterations TOTAL RES

54

38 569 -101 823 -101 823

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: CUM % CHANGE BC ACTUAL AND FORECAST BY SECTOR: JAN – DEC 2018: M2

Cum Y/Y % Change in Buildings Completed by Sector: Jan - March 2018: M2 (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: BC by Month and Sector; Chart 2962) 20%

YTD CUM ACTUAL

YTD CUM FORECAST

10%

Square Metres

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

Jan Residential building -1,71% Non-residential buildings -36,40% Additions and alterations -1,44% Total -11,79%

55

Feb -2,85% 12,38% 12,94% 3,44%

March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec -16,08% -18,70% -16,33% -14,99% -10,74% -7,63% -5,02% -2,65% -1,44% -2,63% -21,52% -11,64% -13,21% -25,54% -24,85% -22,09% -26,23% -27,98% -29,65% -25,61% -0,10% 2,39% 4,55% 0,99% 3,11% 2,49% -0,30% 2,69% 3,59% 3,99% -14,82% -13,47% -12,15% -15,38% -12,55% -10,05% -10,56% -9,64% -9,59% -8,57%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: CUM % CHANGE BCACTUAL AND FC BY SECTOR: JAN – DEC 2018: R*1000 Cum Y/Y % Change in Buildings Completed and Forecast by Sector: Jan - Dec 2018: R*1000 (* Dec) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: BC by Month and Sector; Chart 2964) 20%

YTD CUM ACTUAL

YTD CUM FORECAST

R*1000 (Current Values)

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

Jan Residential building -0,08% Non-residential buildings -39,05% Additions and alterations 4,95% Total -10,85%

56

Feb 0,13% 9,94% 15,74% 5,17%

March -13,79% -26,46% 8,28% -13,71%

April -20,52% -16,86% 10,34% -14,74%

May -18,54% -16,04% 7,17% -13,76%

June -16,97% -27,22% 2,74% -16,74%

July -12,79% -23,61% 5,39% -12,92%

Aug -9,39% -21,36% 4,35% -10,49%

Sept -6,08% -28,11% 2,41% -11,47%

Oct -3,63% -29,21% 6,02% -10,21%

Nov -1,21% -30,89% 7,01% -9,65%

Dec -0,75% -25,71% 8,12% -7,16%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: % DIFFERENCE IN CUM YTD ACTUAL BC 2017 VS 2016

6,07%

7,42%

8,12%

m2

R'000

R'000

8,44%

3,97% m2

3,29%

3,98% No

7,89%

5,26%

20%

R'000

% Difference in Cum Y/Y BC: *YTD ACTUAL AND FC 2018 vs 2017 by Segment by month (* March) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; Buildings Completed RSA, Chart 46(2))

-53,23% R'000

-25,71%

-7,18%

-4,92%

-7,90%

-4,58%

-7,49% -54,50%

-80%

-71,26%

-68,69%

-60%

m2

-40%

-18,68%

-4,12% R'000

-21,98%

-5,99% m2

-0,75%

-5,35%

-0,66% m2

-20%

No

-1,13% No

0%

Dwellings < 80m2

57

Dwellings > 80m2

Flats and TH

Other

Total Office & Shopping Ind&WH Banking

Other

Total

R'000

R'000

m2

R'000

R'000

m2

R'000

m2

R'000

m2

R'000

R'000

m2

R'000

-100%

A&A A&A Other Total A&A Dwellings Total

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

58

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

SENSE MAKING UPDATE: YEAR TO DATE 2018 (MARCH 2018) Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU REPORT OUTLINE SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION: SLIDES 3 – 10 SECTION 2: SLIDES 11 - 24 Analysis of trends in BPP: YTD Actual and YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 2,1: SLIDES 25 - 28 Analysis of trends in BPP: *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018, BPP by Province SECTION 3: SLIDES 29 - 57 Analysis of trends in BC; *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 4: SLIDES 58 - 68 Connecting the dots: Analysis of trends in GFCF Res, Non Res and Total Building; *YTD Actual and Forecast for 2018 - 2025 © BMI-BRSCU


THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM BMI-BRSCU FORECASTING FLOWCHARTT: 2017 - 2020

Political Risk High

350 OO0 pa

Demand GDP + 1,3%

Supply Household Income Affordability Under Pressure

TOTAL GFCF + 0,3% Animal Spirits Low

Political Risk High Confidence Negative

Investment Climate Negative

BUDGET 33%*GDP

PRIVATE Confidence Negative

GFCF RES - 1,72% GFCF NON RES + 0,08% PUBLIC

GFCF CONSTR - 0,62% Animal Spirits Low

Investment Climate Negative

BPP - 3,6%

NBIP 65,35%*BC

GDP + 1,3%

BC + 19,66% NMIP (MA-BC) -100,45%*BC

Mortgage Advances + 5,83%

CONTEXT >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> YTD CURRENT REALITY >>> © BMI-BRSCU

>> SCENARIOS/FORECAST

Housing need

STATE OF THE INDUSTRY LOWER MIDDLE ROAD

1,7%

CURRENT REALITY & STATE OF THE INDUSTRY YTD FC 2017 SCENARIOS/FORECAST

STATE OF THE NATION PRETORIA WILL PROVIDE

Pop Growth


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: NBIP BPP & BC: 1993 - 2017 AND FORECAST: 2018-2020: m2

Total Residential: 1993 - *YTD FC 2020: BC, Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by month: m2 (* Dec) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 2944 (3)) Total Residential NBIP Total Residential BC Total Residential BPP Total Residential NBIP Total Residential BC Total Residential BPP 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total R esidential NBIP) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total R esidential BC) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total R esidential BPP)

1 800 000 1 600 000

Square Metres

1 400 000

Tme lag from peak of BPP to peak of BC = Approx 15 months NBIP = 45.52%*BC

NBIP = 64,98%*BC 66,03%*BC

1 200 000

NBIP = 82.48%*BC

NBIP = 58.02%*BC

1 000 000

NBIP = 56.26%*BC 55.99%*BC

800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

0

These two periods (1993-2000 and 2010-2016) are very similar. Return to the New Norma/In the shadow of the Valley of Death? ?

60

© BMI-BRSCU


THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM

BMi

CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL RESIDENTIAL: 1993 - 2025

GFCF: Residential: 2000-2025: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2016 Values) (Source: SA Treasury; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 345) 120,00

-1,72%

4,16%2,76%

-4,51% 1,47%

-2,40%

95,90

91,11

86,97

83,41

80,62

78,22

76,94

78,28

73,84

8,62%

108,33 30,0%

20,0%

6,06%6,51% 4,76%5,26% 3,47%4,26%

3,07%

10,0%

0,0%

1,67%

Y/Y Percentage Change

-5,50% -8,16%

71,85

-1,84%

68,98

69,02

71,19

3,41%

67,99

4,01%

70,00

48,92

49,83

48,19

52,24

-10,0%

60,00

50,00

8,20%

6,79%

80,00

80,21

90,00

87,15

92,22

96,55

19,0%

89,23

R Million (Constant 2016 Values)

100,00

100,41

32,12% 29,28%

110,00

101,71

40,0%

BUDGET FORECAST (SA Treasury Jan 2018 for 2016 - 2020)

-18,31% -20,0%

40,00

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

-30,0%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: TOTAL NON RES NBIP: m2: 2000-2016 AND FORECAST: 2017-2020

Total Non Res: 2000 - *YTD FC 2020: BC, Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by Month: m2 (* March 2018) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 2946(3)) NBIP Total Non Residential

600 000

BC Total Non Residential

550 000

BPP Total Non Residential

Tme lag from peak of BPP to peak of BC = Approx 15 months

12 per. Mov. Avg. (NBIP Total Non Residential)

500 000

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC Total Non Residential)

NBIP = 60.10%*BC

NBIP = 99.48%*BC

400 000

NBIP = 42.83%*BC

350NBIP 000 = 76.29%*BC

Square Metres

NBIP = 65,80%*BC

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BPP Total Non Residential)

450 000

NBIP = 59.85%*BC

300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000

62

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

0

© BMI-BRSCU


THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM

BMi

CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL: 1993 - 2025

GFCF: Non Residential: 2000-2025: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2016 Values) (Source: SA Treasury; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 347)

120,00

101,94

110,00

-7,67%

38,90

36,35

39,37

50,86

45,69

50,00

42,87

60,00

40,00

69,96

66,45

2,83%

67,75

70,43

68,49

3,0%

81,07

78,66

77,36

77,30

3,30%

96,15

15,0%

10,0%

6,46% 6,01% 5,22% 4,72% 4,04% 5,0% 3,47% 3,07%

1,68% 0,69%

58,29

70,00

5,28%

72,27

6,58%

80,00

79,35

7,02%

6,98%

78,81

9,05%

83,89

90,00

87,27

11,30% 10,22%

36,80

R Million (Constant 2016 Values)

100,00

91,39

14,62%

0,08% 0,0%

-1,92%

Y/Y Percentage Change

17,49%

108,52

20,0%

-2,59%

-3,80% -5,0%

BUDGET FORECAST (SA Treasury Jan 2018 for 2016 - 2020)

30,00

-10,0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: TOTAL NBIP: M2: 1993-2016 AND FORECAST: 2017-2020

Total Building: BC: 2000 - *YTD FC 2020: Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by Month: m2 (* Dec) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 2948 (3)) 2 200 000 Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC)

2 000 000

Tme lag from peak of BPP to peak of BC = Approx 15 months

Total Building BC Total Building BPP

1 800 000

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC))

1 600 000

NBIP = 57,14%*BC

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building BC)

NBIP = 65,37%*BC

Square Metres

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building BPP)

NBIP = 44.02%*BC

1 400 000

NBIP = 59.43%*BC 1 200 000

NBIP = 81.33%*BC 1 000 000

NBIP = 65.98%*BC 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

0

These two periods (1993-2000 and 2011-2016) are very similar. Return to the New Normal?

64

© BMI-BRSCU


THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC F5RUM

BMi

CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: 1993 - 2020

GFCF: Total Building: 2000-2025: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2016 Value) (Source: SA Treasury; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 349) 25,00%

22,77%

111,89

140,00

80,00

3,35%3,73%

174,24

167,30

161,69

156,88

154,29

155,58

159,56

152,65

144,12

138,94

157,58

160,71

1,26%

5,91%

203,65

10,00%

6,03%6,48% 5,24% 4,74% 4,15% 5,00% 3,07%3,47% 1,67%

-0,82% -1,95% -3,25%

20,00%

15,00%

0,00%

-2,49%

91,14

85,26

100,00

89,20

120,00

134,43

3,00%

138,95

134,93

4,96%

147,40

9,25% 7,67%

6,89%

160,00

158,71

180,00

84,99

R Million (Constant 2016 Values)

200,00

182,50

BUDGET FORECAST (SA Treasury Jan 2018 for 2016 - 2020)

192,06

20,58% 220,00

216,85

240,00

-5,00%

-4,42% -10,00%

-11,83%

60,00

-15,00% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: PROGNOSIS: BPP AND BC; DOMESTIC CEMENT & LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES 2015 - 2018

Mar-18 BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value) 2015 vs 2014 Residential BPP (m2) 1,81% Residential BPP (R) 7,69% Non Residential BPP (m2) -6,78% Non Residential BPP (R) -0,48% Total BPP (m2) Total BPP (R) Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (m2)

-0,92% 4,98% -0,84%

2016 vs 2015 -1,46% 7,58% 4,27% 11,23% 0,25% 8,73% 0,29%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (R) 5,12% 8,74% PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: BUILDINGS COMPLETED Mar-18 2016 vs BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (m2 and value) 2015 vs 2014 2015 7,48% 2,07% Residential BC (m2) Residential BC (R) 13,42% 9,28% -8,54% 0,85% Non Residential BC (m2) -3,72% 6,31% Non Residential BC (R) 2,07% 1,70% Total BC (m2) Total BC (R) 7,34% 8,34% Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) 133,32% 11,72% Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R) -1,86% 9,52%

66

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act 2015 2016 2017 YTD vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST -3,29% 2,75% -1,46% -3,29% 1,81% -0,43% 4,89% 7,58% -0,43% 7,69% -9,02% 3,57% 4,27% -9,02% -6,78% -2,50% 9,17% 11,23% -2,50% -0,48%

2018 YTD FORECAST -0,36% -0,24% 3,15% 3,55%

-5,07% -1,10% -6,78%

3,00% 6,25% 3,00%

-0,92% 4,98% -0,84%

0,25% 8,73% 0,29%

-5,07% -1,10% -6,78%

0,68% 0,96% 0,23%

-1,90%

6,26%

5,12%

8,75%

-1,90%

0,76%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act FC 2015 2016 2017 vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST 0,25% -13,13% 2,07% 0,25% 7,48% 9,92% -9,33% 9,28% 9,92% 13,42% 22,67% -18,48% 0,85% 22,67% -8,54% 39,91% -22,18% 6,31% 39,91% -3,72% 6,98% -14,82% 1,70% 6,98% 2,07% 19,29% -13,71% 8,34% 19,29% 7,34% 6,86% -15,80% 133,32% 1,71% 6,86% 21,09% -16,96% 14,54% 8,17% 21,09%

2018 FORECAST -1,56% 0,80% -21,93% -20,97% -8,57% -7,17% -8,03% -6,58%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: PROGNOSIS: BPP AND BC; DOMESTIC CEMENT & LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES 2013 – FC 2017

BPP/BC AND NBIP RES NON RES AND TOTAL (M2 AND VALUE) 2014 vs 2013 Residential BPP/BC (m2) 1,84 Non Residential BPP/BC (m2) 1,68 Total BPP/BC (m2) 1,78 Residential BPP/BC (R) 1,90 Non Residential BPP/BC (R) 1,71 Total BPP/BC (R) 1,83 Residential Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP) (m2) Residential Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP) (R) Non Residential Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP) (m2) Non Residential Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP) (R) Total Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP) (m2) Total Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP) (R)

2015 vs 2014 1,74 1,71 1,73 1,80 1,77 1,79 74,00% 80,22% 70,76% 77,01% 73,02% 79,20%

FC 2016 FC 2017 2016 YTD Act 2017 YTD FC FC 2015 vs 2015 YTD vs 2016 YTD FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST Act Act 1,83 1,64 1,68 1,62 1,85 1,73 1,77 1,31 1,84 1,67 1,71 1,51 1,77 1,59 1,77 1,61 1,92 1,69 1,85 1,29 1,82 1,62 1,80 1,49 67,99% 62,06% 67,99% 62,06% 77,42% 60,71% 77,42% 60,71% 76,54% 30,93% 76,54% 30,93% 85,21% 29,06% 85,21% 29,06% 70,55% 51,35% 70,55% 51,35% 79,85% 49,12% 79,85% 49,12%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: CEMENT SALES

2016 YTD Act 2017 YTD Act 2015 vs vs 2015 YTD vs 2016 YTD 2014 vs 2013 2014 Act Act Dec-17 DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (Tonnes) -0,82% 7,65% -0,82% -0,82% 2016 YTD Act 2017 YTD FC PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES 2015 vs vs 2015 YTD vs 2016 YTD 2014 Act Act Dec-17 2014 vs 2013 LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (m3) 9,35% 6,95% -3,03% -6,87% PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST BY INDICATOR 2016 YTD Act 2017 YTD FC 2015 vs vs 2015 YTD vs 2016 YTD 2014 vs 2013 Nov-17 2014 Act Act OVERALL AVERAGE (m2) 35,25% 6,65% -0,94% -5,12% OVERALL AVERAGE (R) 3,07% 3,96% 5,10% -5,97% TOTAL INV IN BUILDING -8,01% 1,87% 20,53% 0,44% TOTAL INV IN CONSTRUCTION 5,45% 6,38% 2,57% -16,10% TOTAL INV IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION 0,88% 4,21% 10,98% -7,69% Source: ©BMI-BRSCU

67

FC 2018 FORECAST 1,65 1,78 1,69 1,65 1,79 1,70 65,34% 65,50% 78,40% 78,65% 69,15% 69,59%

YTD 'FC 2017 FC 2015 7,65%

FC 2016 -0,82%

FC 2017 -0,82%

FC 2018 1,67%

FC 2015 6,95%

FC 2016 -3,03%

FC 2017 -5,71%

FC 2018 1,79%

FC 2015 36,77% 7,66% 3,44% 6,38% 4,21%

FC 2016 -0,46% 3,36% 22,33% 2,57% 10,98%

FC 2017 -1,61% -0,31% -1,30% -16,10% -7,69%

FC 2018 -1,08% -2,98% 2,24% -0,13% 1,21%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

PROGNOSIS: GDP, GFCF, GFCF RES GFCF NON-RES 20135- 2025

LONGTERM FORECAST SUMMARY: GDP AND GFCF: 2015 - 2025 CONSTANT 2016 VALUE GDP GFCF Total GFCF Y/Y % Value Y/Y % Growth R Billion Growth

LONGTERM FORECAST SUMMARY: GFCF RES, NON RES AND CONST: 2015 2025 CONSTANT 2016 VALUE GFCF GFCF GFCF Bldng GFCF TOTAL GFCF TOTAL CONSTR TOTAL BLDNG NON RES Constr + Constr BUILDING R BLDNG Y/Y % + CONSTR Y/Y Y/Y % Total Value Total Value Billion Y/Y % Growth Growth % Growth Growth R Billion R Billion

Year

*2015

R 4 315

1,30%

R 884

2,33%

20,49%

*2015

R 80,21

8,62%

R 79,35

0,69%

R 160

4,53%

R 247,73

6,38%

R 407,29

5,65%

*2016 *2017 *2018 *2019 *2020 **2021 **2022 **2023 **2024 **2025

R 4 339 R 4 395 R 4 461 R 4 542 R 4 637 R 4 753 R 4 886 R 5 032 R 5 204 R 5 396

0,60% 1,30% 1,50% 1,80% 2,10% 2,50% 2,80% 3,00% 3,40% 3,70%

R 849 R 852 R 868 R 897 R 930 R 972 R 1 020 R 1 076 R 1 144 R 1 221

-3,93% 0,30% 1,90% 3,30% 3,70% 4,50% 5,00% 5,50% 6,30% 6,75%

19,57% 19,38% 19,46% 19,74% 20,05% 20,44% 20,88% 21,39% 21,99% 22,64%

*2016 *2017 *2018 **2019 **2020 **2021 **2022 **2023 **2024 **2025

R 78,28 R 76,94 R 78,22 R 80,62 R 83,41 R 86,97 R 91,11 R 95,90 R 101,71 R 108,33

-2,40% -1,72% 1,67% 3,07% 3,47% 4,26% 4,76% 5,26% 6,06% 6,51%

R 77,30 R 77,36 R 78,66 R 81,07 R 83,89 R 87,27 R 91,39 R 96,15 R 101,94 R 108,52

-2,59% 0,08% 1,68% 3,07% 3,47% 4,04% 4,72% 5,22% 6,01% 6,46%

R 156 R 154 R 157 R 162 R 167 R 174 R 182 R 192 R 204 R 217

-2,49% -0,82% 1,67% 3,07% 3,47% 4,15% 4,74% 5,24% 6,03% 6,48%

R 254,11 R 228,23 R 231,87 R 238,81 R 246,90 R 236,46 R 241,18 R 247,21 R 255,87 R 268,66

2,57% -10,18% 1,60% 2,99% 3,39% -4,23% 2,00% 2,50% 3,50% 5,00%

R 409,69 R 382,52 R 388,75 R 400,50 R 414,20 R 410,70 R 423,68 R 439,27 R 459,51 R 485,51

0,59% -6,63% 1,63% 3,02% 3,42% -0,84% 3,16% 3,68% 4,61% 5,66%

GFCF/GDP %

Year

GFCF Res GFCF RES Value Y/Y % R Billion Growth

GFCF Non Res Value R Billion

GDP Value R Billion

* Growth 2015 - 2020 by Treasury ** Growth 2021-2025 by BMI-BRSCU

68

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SENSEMAKING UPDATE: www.strategicforum.co.za

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM A place of assembly for strategic conversations

Sense making Update: Year To Date 2018 (March) 69

Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU

© BMI-BRSCU

Sense-makingUpdate YTD 2018 (March)  

The Sense-making Update is published monthly and analyses the trends in BPP and BC and serves as input into the proprietary BMI-BRSCU Foreca...

Sense-makingUpdate YTD 2018 (March)  

The Sense-making Update is published monthly and analyses the trends in BPP and BC and serves as input into the proprietary BMI-BRSCU Foreca...