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THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM A place of assembly for strategic conversations

Sense making Update: Year To Date 2018 (APRIL 2018) 1

Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU

© BMI-BRSCU


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THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

SENSE MAKING UPDATE: YEAR TO DATE 2018 (MARCH 2018) Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU REPORT OUTLINE SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION: SLIDES 1 – 10 SECTION 2: SLIDES 11 - 24 Analysis of trends in BPP: YTD Actual and YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 2,1: SLIDES 25 - 28 Analysis of trends in BPP: *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018, BPP by Province SECTION 3: SLIDES 29 - 57 Analysis of trends in BC; *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 4: SLIDES 58 - 68 Connecting the dots: Analysis of trends in GFCF Res, Non Res and Total Building; *YTD Actual and Forecast for 2018 - 2025 © BMI-BRSCU


THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM DATA, INFORMATION, KNOWLEDGE AND INSIGHT

No matter how hard you might wish it to be otherwise, the world is awash in data. Some decisions have to be made on the basis of it, and those decisions are required to be data-driven. Profitability, hiring, contracts, pricing - these are things that need data, and the faster you can get the right bits of it, the quicker you can make the call.

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Equally though, the best ideas in the world are forward-looking and are usually only data-related. The best ideas are rooted in history, but envision the future. Š BMI-BRSCU


BUSINESS AND COMPLEXITY www.strategicforum.co.za

Foresight

Benjamin Franklin put it very simply. "By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail," the scientist, diplomat and co-author of the American Declaration of Independence once said. But what if you don’t know what you are preparing for? What if the pace of change is so frantic and tomorrow so unpredictable, that any attempt to forecast the future is no more than educated guesswork? That is the challenge facing business in 2017: preparing for a journey into the unknown, the so-called VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous) environment. Everything companies and executives think they know about the business environment is in danger of becoming obsolete.


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THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM BMI-BRSCU FORECASTING FLOWCHARTT: 2016 - 2020

DATA ANALYSIS PROVIDES THE IN-DEPTH UNDERSTANDING OF THE CURRENT REALITY, WHICH TOGETHER WITH FUTURE FORECASTING ARE ELEMENTS OF STRATEGIC THINKING, WHICH INFORMS STRATEGY FORMULATION AND ENRICHES THE CONTEXT IN WHICH STRATEGY IS DEVELOPED, PLANNED, EXECUTED AND MONITORED. THEREFORE THE SENSE MAKING UPDATE AND INDUSTRY DASHBOARD IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INPUT TO THE STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESS, COMMENCING WITH INDUSTRY CONTEXT BY VALUE, FOLLOWED BY CURRENT REALITY BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT FOR BPP AND BC AND NBIP WITH MONTHLY MONITORING. WE THEN RELATE THIS TO THE FUTURE THROUGH SCENARIOS AND FORECAST, BY VALUE AND M2 AND BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT.

CONTEXT >>> CURRENT REALITY >>> SCENARIOS >>> FUTURE FORECAST >>> STATE OF INDUSTRY

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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: PURPOSE OF BPP AND BC SURVEY

Purpose of the BPP and BC survey The monthly survey data are used in monitoring the state of economy and formulation of economic policy. Furthermore, the results are important inputs to estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) and to calculate the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator. The data are extensively used by the private sector. Scope of the survey The survey covers local government institutions conducting activities for the private sector regarding passing of building plans; and final inspection of completed buildings. (StatsSA; June 2017) 6

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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: GLOSSARY OF SEGMENTS: BPP AND BC

Glossary of Segments: BPP and BC Additions and alterations: Extensions to existing buildings as well as internal and external alterations of existing buildings. Blocks of flats: High-density housing consisting of a number of selfcontained dwelling-units, each with at least one living-room together with a kitchen and bathroom, conjoined to similar units in one building. Dwelling-house: A free-standing, complete structure on a separate stand or a self-contained dwelling-unit, e.g. granny flat, on the same premises as an existing residence. Out-buildings and garages are included. Non-residential buildings: Factories and commercial, financial and other office buildings, as well as other buildings not used for residential purposes, such as churches, halls, clubs, schools and hospitals. Other residential buildings: Institutions for the disabled, boarding houses, old people’s homes, hostels, hotels, motels, guesthouses, holiday chalets, bed-and-breakfast accommodation, entertainment centres and casinos. (StatsSA; June 2017) 7

Š BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE: GLOSSARY OF SEGMENTS: BPP AND BC

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INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: 2017: M2*1000 Recorded* Recorded** Unrecorded Sector and Segment PRIVATE AND PUBLIC M2*1000 M2*1000 M2*1000 Dwelling-houses < 80 m2 801 Dwelling-houses > 80 m2 2765 Townhouses & Flats 1401 Other (Incl. hotels & casinos) 97 Additions & alterations 1309 PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL Affordable Housing 15027 General Government 177 Public corporations 11 Private Business Enterprises 7978 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL Offices 442 Shops 968 Industrial & warehouse 1151 Other 272 Additions & Alterations 397 PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL General Government 2620 Public Corporations 473 Private Business Enterprises 4770 TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL Unrecorded Res Adds and Alts 6680 Unrecorded Non Res Adds and Alts 805 GRAND TOTAL 9604 16029 22513 * StatsSA (Monthly 6 weeks in arrears) 19,95% 33,29% 46,76% ** SARB (Quarterly in arrears) 53,24% 46,76%

Total M2*1000 801 2765 1401 97 1309 15027 177 11 7978

442 968 1151 272 397 2620 473 4770 6680 805 48146 100,00% 100,00%

IT MUST BE EMPHASISED THAT BPP AND BC (PUBLISED BY STATSSA) COMPRISES < 20% OF TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING. Nevertheless it is an excellent short-term indicator of the trends in the Building Industry (published 6 weekly in arrears) but it must be interpreted in this context.

© BMI-BRSCU

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© BMI-BRSCU


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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: NBIP (= BPP – BC): FORECAST: 2017-2020:M2 and R*1000

The NBIP = BPP-BC is a proxy for "Building Starts, or the Order book”, because the building of this remnant must be postponed, cancelled or COMMENCED, for delivery of Buildings in the Pipeline to be maintained. MIN/MAX/AVE/YTD ACTUAL2018/FC2018-2020 OF BPP/BQ: 1993 - 2018 RES NON RES TOTAL m2 R*1000 m2 R*1000 m2 R*1000 PARAMETER 1,62 1,61 1,31 1,29 1,51 1,49 Actual 2017 1,58

1,69

1,64

1,75

1,59

1,70

Average 1993-2017

0,71

1,06

0,74

1,06

0,72

1,19

Minimum (2005)

1,88 1,80 1,64 0,22 1,09 -0,08 0,06

1,99 1,76 1,58 0,07 0,69 -0,24 1,61

2,34 1,69 1,68 0,05 0,95 -0,65 1,31

2,63 1,81 1,65 0,05 0,74 -0,82 1,29

1,92 1,77 1,65 0,18 1,05 -0,15 1,51

2,10 1,77 1,60 0,08 0,59 -0,33 1,49

Maximum (2009) YTD Actual 2018 * *YTD FC 2018 *YTD Act-Ave *YTD Act-Min *YTD Act-Max *YTD FC-Ave

© BMI-BRSCU * April 2018

The ratio BPP/BC for *YTD Actual 2018 varies from a low of 1,76 (Res R*1000) to a high of 1,81 (Non Res R*1000). Note that all the ratios for YTD 2018 are below the maximums (achieved in 2009), generally above the average for 1993 – 2017, and well above the minimum (achieved in 2005). The ratio can be interpreted as the “health of the Industry” or could be an indication that BPP exceeds BC, either to depict “health” or sluggish Building Completions through postponement or cancellation of BPP. This will be evident in the STATS. © BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

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CURRENT REALITY: NBIP (= BPP – BC): FORECAST: 2018-2025: R*1000

2,70 2,60 2,50 2,40 2,30 2,20 2,10 2,00 1,90 1,80 1,70 1,60 1,50 1,40 1,30 1,20 1,10 1,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,10 0,00

FORECAST

ACTUAL

Note that BPP/BC for Non Res fluctuates widely, because of the impact of large projects in the period 1993 to 2006. From 2006 to 2017 the time series moved closer together and this pattern is projected to continue to 2025.

BPP/BC: Total Residential (R*1000) BPP/BC: Total Non Residential: (R*1000)

Ave…

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

BPP/BC: Total Res + Non Res (R*1000)

1993

Building Plans Passed (BPP)/Buildings Completed (BC)

BPP/BC: TOTAL RESIDENTIAL; TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL; TOTAL RES + NON RES: 1993 - 2025 (R*1000) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; Chart 1)

© BMI-BRSCU


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THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

SENSE MAKING UPDATE: YEAR TO DATE 2018 (MARCH 2018) Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU REPORT OUTLINE SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION: SLIDES 3 – 10 SECTION 2: SLIDES 11 - 30 Analysis of trends in BPP: YTD Actual and YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 4: SLIDES 61 - 68 Connecting the dots: Analysis of trends in GFCF Res, Non Res and Total Building; *YTD Actual and Forecast for 2018 - 2025

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© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP & BC: YTD ACTUAL

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RESULTS FOR YTD ACTUAL APRIL 2018 BPP YTD ACTUAL APRIL 2018 VS 2017: CURRENT PRICES Current Prices

YTD Apr 2017

YTD Apr 2018

Difference

% Change

R*1000 R*1000 15 595 943

17 032 314

1 436 371

9,2%

- Dwelling Houses

9 695 991

10 282 168

586 177

6,0%

- Flats & Townhouses

5 790 350

5 825 905

35 555

0,6%

- Other Res Buildings

109 602

924 241

814 639

743,3%

Non Residential Buildings

6 850 285

7 647 850

797 565

11,6%

Additions & Alterations

8 125 759

9 095 786

970 027

11,9%

30 571 987

33 775 950

3 203 963

10,48%

Residential Buildings

Total

R*1000

Total value of recorded building plans passed at current prices The value of recorded building plans passed (at current prices) increased by + 10,48% (+ R3 203,96) million) during YTD March 2018 compared with 2017. Non-residential buildings decreased by + 11,6% (+R797,57 million). Residential Buildings increased by + 9,2% (+R1436,37 Million). Additions and Alterations increased by + 11,9% (+ R1 107,802) 12

© BMI-BRSCU


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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD ACTUAL & FC

The 2018 YTD Actual Residential BPP vs the same period in 2017 shows an INCREASE of + 3,72% in m2; and an INCREASE of + 8,05% in value. The 2018 YTD Actual Non Residential BPP vs 2016 recorded an INCREASE of + 7,36% in m2; and an INCREASE of + 16,29% in value. Therefore the 2018 YTD Actual Total BPP vs 2017 shows an INCREASE of + 4,76% in m2 and an INCREASE of + 10,48% in value.

Apr-18 BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value) 2015 vs 2014 Residential BPP (m2) 1,81% Residential BPP (R) 7,69% Non Residential BPP (m2) -6,78% Non Residential BPP (R) -0,48%

2016 vs 2015 0,30% 7,58% 4,27% 11,23%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act 2015 2016 2017 YTD vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST -4,98% 3,72% 0,30% 0,84% 1,81% -0,43% 8,05% 7,58% -0,43% 7,69% -9,02% 7,36% 4,27% -9,02% -6,78% -2,50% 16,29% 11,23% -2,50% -0,48%

2018 YTD FORECAST -0,25% 0,51% 0,96% 1,49%

Total BPP (m2) Total BPP (R) Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (m2)

-0,92% 4,98% -0,84%

1,48% 8,73% 1,50%

-6,22% -1,10% -8,73%

4,76% 10,48% 4,77%

-0,92% 4,98% -0,84%

1,48% 8,73% 1,50%

-2,31% -1,10% -8,33%

0,11% 0,82% 0,02%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (R)

5,12%

8,74%

-1,90%

10,54%

5,12%

8,74%

-1,90%

3,65%

The 2018 YTD Forecast Residential BPP vs the same period in 2017 shows a DECREASE of - 0,25% in m2; and an INCREASE of + 0,51% in value. The 2018 YTD Forecast Non Residential BPP vs 2017 shows an INCREASE of + 0,96% in m2; and of + 1,49% in value. Therefore the 2018 YTD Forecast Total BPP vs 2017 shows an INCREASE of + 0,11% in m2 and an INCREASE of + 0,82% in value. 13

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD ACTUAL

Apr-18 BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value) 2015 vs 2014 Residential BPP (m2) 1,81% Residential BPP (R) 7,69% Non Residential BPP (m2) -6,78% Non Residential BPP (R) -0,48%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act 2015 2016 2017 YTD vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST -4,98% 3,72% 0,30% 0,84% 1,81% -0,43% 8,05% 7,58% -0,43% 7,69% -9,02% 7,36% 4,27% -9,02% -6,78% -2,50% 16,29% 11,23% -2,50% -0,48%

2016 vs 2015 0,30% 7,58% 4,27% 11,23%

FORECAST -0,25% 0,51% 0,96% 1,49%

Total BPP (m2) Total BPP (R) Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (m2)

-0,92% 4,98% -0,84%

1,48% 8,73% 1,50%

-6,22% -1,10% -8,73%

4,76% 10,48% 4,77%

-0,92% 4,98% -0,84%

1,48% 8,73% 1,50%

-2,31% -1,10% -8,33%

0,11% 0,82% 0,02%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (R)

5,12%

8,74%

-1,90%

10,54%

5,12%

8,74%

-1,90%

3,65%

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres

m2

%

R*1000

%

52 738

20,97%

247 580

18,50%

-24 234

-1,97%

338 597

4,05%

Flats and townhouses

22 367

2,98%

35 555

0,61%

Other buildings

67 781

358,76%

814 639

743,27%

Additions and alterations

TOTAL

-2 393

-0,28%

297 020

4,99%

116 259

3,72%

1 733 391

8,05%

116 259

3,72%

1 733 391

8,05%

R*1000

%

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 % Office and banking

34 231

20,69%

484 350

32,57%

Shopping

40 407

25,20%

273 844

20,69%

-74 592

-13,37%

-185 915

-5,90%

20 576

16,24%

225 286

25,42%

Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL

70 988

30,34%

673 007

30,89%

91 610

7,36%

1 470 572

16,29%

207 869

4,76%

3 203 963

10,48%

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 R*1000 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL RES

33 69 -126 -6 3

489 117 685 147 852

3,40% 1,68% -5,38% -5,64% 0,13%

314 738 915 980 -1 306 603 170 229 285 091

6,55% 3,18% -6,91% 19,28% 1,35%

-26 373

-0,25% -0,25%

379 436

0,51% 0,51%

-26 373 -26 373

379 436 379 436

NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 R*1000 Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL NON RES

53 -86 -27 16 86

744 706 814 497 988

11,27% -10,11% -1,50% 3,51% 10,71%

656 050 -1 042 768 29 269 225 099 647 999

14,57% -13,90% 0,26% 6,75% 8,01%

42 709

0,96% 0,96%

515 649

1,49% 1,49%

42 709

TOTAL RES & NON RES GRAND TOTAL

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2018 YTD

* April 2018

515 649

16 336

0,11%

895 084

0,82%

16 336

0,11%

895 084

0,82%

© BMI-BRSCU


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RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL

m2

%

R*1000

%

304 261

9,39%

1 586 102

6,81%

1 208 106

37,30%

8 696 066

37,36%

772 978

23,86%

5 825 905

25,03%

86 674

2,68%

924 241

3,97%

867 014

26,77%

6 244 194

26,83%

3 239 033 100,00%

23 276 508

100,00%

70,80% 3 239 033 NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 m2

68,91% 23 276 508 %

R*1000

%

Office and banking

199 673

14,94%

1 971 621

18,78%

Shopping

200 740

15,02%

1 597 344

15,21%

Industrial and warehouse

483 505

36,19%

2 967 228

28,26%

Other buildings

147 253

11,02%

1 111 657

10,59%

Additions and alterations

304 969

22,82%

2 851 592

27,16%

1 336 140

100,00%

10 499 442

100,00%

TOTAL

29,20%

31,09%

GRAND TOTAL

4 575 173

33 775 950

* April 2018

1 336 140

10 499 442

4 575 173

33 775 950

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD ACTUAL

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PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD ACTUAL 2018 (R*1000) (APRIL) Houses R10,28 Billion

Additions & Alterations R6,24 Billion

Residential

68,91% R23,28 Billion BPP/BC = 1,76 NBIP = 76%*BC

Additions & Alterations

% Contribution of Building Type to Total Value of Building Plans Passed: YTD 2018

Total Value R33,78 Billion BPP/BC = 1,34 NBIP = 34%*BC

Industrial & Warehousing R2,97 Billion

R2,85 Billion

Non Res

31,09% R10,50 Billion BPP/BC = 1,81 NBIP = 81%*BC

Offices & Banking R1,97 Billion Other R0,92 Billion

Total Additions & Alterations

26,90% Flats & Townhouses R5,83 Billion

R9,09 Billion

Other R1,11 Billion Shopping R1,60 Billion

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP: YTD ACTUAL AND FORECAST 2017

Apr-18 BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value) 2015 vs 2014 Residential BPP (m2) 1,81% Residential BPP (R) 7,69% Non Residential BPP (m2) -6,78% Non Residential BPP (R) -0,48% Total BPP (m2) Total BPP (R)

-0,92% 4,98%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act 2015 2016 2017 YTD vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST -4,98% 3,72% 0,30% 0,84% 1,81% -0,43% 8,05% 7,58% -0,43% 7,69% -9,02% 7,36% 4,27% -9,02% -6,78% -2,50% 16,29% 11,23% -2,50% -0,48%

2016 vs 2015 0,30% 7,58% 4,27% 11,23% 1,48% 8,73%

-6,22% -1,10%

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres

m2

%

R*1000

%

52 738

20,97%

247 580

18,50%

-24 234

-1,97%

338 597

4,05%

Flats and townhouses

22 367

2,98%

35 555

0,61%

Other buildings

67 781

358,76%

814 639

743,27%

Additions and alterations

TOTAL

-2 393

-0,28%

297 020

4,99%

116 259

3,72%

1 733 391

8,05%

116 259

3,72%

1 733 391

8,05%

R*1000

%

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 % Office and banking

34 231

20,69%

484 350

32,57%

Shopping

40 407

25,20%

273 844

20,69%

-74 592

-13,37%

-185 915

-5,90%

20 576

16,24%

225 286

25,42%

Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL

70 988

30,34%

673 007

30,89%

91 610

7,36%

1 470 572

16,29%

4,76% 10,48%

-0,92% 4,98%

1,48% 8,73%

GRAND TOTAL

17

207 869

4,76%

3 203 963

10,48%

91 610

7,36%

1 470 572

16,29%

FORECAST -0,25% 0,51% 0,96% 1,49% 0,11% 0,82%

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 R*1000 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL RES

33 489 69 117 -126 685 -6 147 3 852

3,40% 1,68% -5,38% -5,64% 0,13%

314 738 915 980 -1 306 603 170 229 285 091

6,55% 3,18% -6,91% 19,28% 1,35%

-26 373

-0,25% -0,25%

379 436

0,51% 0,51%

-26 373 -26 373

379 436 379 436

NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 R*1000 Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL NON RES

53 744 -86 706 -27 814 16 497 86 988

11,27% -10,11% -1,50% 3,51% 10,71%

656 050 -1 042 768 29 269 225 099 647 999

14,57% -13,90% 0,26% 6,75% 8,01%

42 709

0,96% 0,96%

515 649

1,49% 1,49%

42 709 * April 2018

-2,31% -1,10%

2018 YTD

TOTAL RES & NON RES * April 2018

515 649

16 336

0,11%

895 084

0,82%

16 336

0,11%

895 084

0,82%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP YTD ACTUAL: % CHANGE 2017 VS 2016 (R*1000)

PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 (R*1000) (APRIL) Other + 743,27 % Flats & Townhouses + 0,61%

Additions & Alterations

+ 4,99% % Change in Value of Building Plans Passed between YTD 2018 and 2017 by Building Type

Dwellings > 80 m2 + 4,09%

Residential + 8,05%

Dwellings < 80 m2 + 18,50%

All Buildings + 10,48% Non Residential + 16,29%

Offices & Banking + 32,57%

Shopping + 20,69% Additions & Alterations

Industrial & Warehousing - 5,90%

+ 30,89%

18

Other + 25,42%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

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CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED BY SEGMENT: CUM YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017

743,27%

% Difference in Cumulative Y/Y BPP: CUM *YTD Actual 2018 vs 2017 by Segment (* April) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA Chart 99)

800%

700%

600%

358,76%

500%

400%

300%

11,94%

10,48% R'000

30,89% R'000

R'000

30,34% m2

4,99%

11,64%

25,42%

20,69% R'000

R'000

25,20% m2

16,24%

32,57% R'000

m2

20,69% m2

0,61% R'000

9,21%

2,98% m2

25,66%

4,05%

18,50% R'000

1,72%

20,97% m2

100%

25,50%

200%

< 80m2

19

> 80m2

Flats and Townhouses

Other

Total Office and Shopping Ind&WH Banking

Other

Total

R'000

m2 -0,28%

R'000

R'000 -5,90%

m2 -13,37%

R'000

R'000

m2

No

R'000

No

No

-100%

m2 -1,97%

0%

A&A A&A OtherTot A&A Dwellings Tot

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD FORECAST

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FC 2018 m2 % Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL

R*1000

%

1 018 869 4 181 389 2 227 233 102 770 2 988 434

9,69% 39,75% 21,17% 0,98% 28,41%

5 121 811 29 753 951 17 597 506 1 053 183 21 457 471

6,83% 39,68% 23,47% 1,40% 28,62%

10 518 696 69,98% 10 518 696

100,00%

74 983 923 68,08% 74 983 923

100,00%

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FC 2018 m2 % R*1000 Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL TOTAL * April 2018

20

530 782 771 043 1 825 385 486 407 899 009

%

11,76% 17,09% 40,45% 10,78% 19,92%

5 158 651 6 459 149 11 242 419 3 559 363 8 738 966

14,67% 18,37% 31,98% 10,12% 24,86%

4 512 626 100,00%

35 158 548

100,00%

30,02%

31,92%

15 031 322

110 142 470

4 512 626

35 158 548

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD FORECAST

PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD FORECAST 2018 (R*1000) (APRIL) Houses R34,88 Billion

Additions & Alterations

Additions & Alterations R21,46 Billion

Residential

68,08% R74,98 Billion BPP/BC = 1,58 NBIP = 58%*BC

Industrial & Warehousing R11,24 Billion

% Contribution of Building Type to Total Value of Building Plans Passed: YTD FC 2018 Total Value R110,14 Billion BPP/BC = 1,60 NBIP =60%*BC

R8,74 Billion

Non Res

31,92% R35,16 Billion BPP/BC = 1,65 NBIP =241*BC

Offices & Banking R5,16 Billion Other R 1,05 Billion Flats & Townhouses R17,60 Billion

21

Total Additions & Alterations

Other R3,56 Billion

27,42% R30,38 Billion

Shopping R6,46 Billion

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP: YTD ACTUAL AND FORECAST 2018

Apr-18 BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value) 2015 vs 2014 Residential BPP (m2) 1,81% Residential BPP (R) 7,69% -6,78% Non Residential BPP (m2) Non Residential BPP (R) -0,48% Total BPP (m2) Total BPP (R)

-0,92% 4,98%

2016 vs 2015 0,30% 7,58% 4,27% 11,23% 1,48% 8,73%

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017

m2

%

R*1000

%

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres

52 738

20,97%

247 580

18,50%

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres

-24 234

-1,97%

338 597

4,05%

Flats and townhouses

22 367

2,98%

35 555

0,61%

Other buildings

67 781

358,76%

814 639

743,27%

Additions and alterations

TOTAL

-2 393

-0,28%

297 020

4,99%

116 259

3,72%

1 733 391

8,05%

116 259

3,72%

1 733 391

8,05%

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 % Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse

34 231

20,69%

R*1000

%

484 350

32,57%

40 407

25,20%

273 844

20,69%

-74 592

-13,37%

-185 915

-5,90%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act 2015 2016 2017 YTD vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST -4,98% 3,72% 0,30% 0,84% 1,81% -0,43% 8,05% 7,58% -0,43% 7,69% -9,02% 7,36% 4,27% -9,02% -6,78% -2,50% 16,29% 11,23% -2,50% -0,48% -6,22% -1,10%

4,76% 10,48%

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations

TOTAL RES

Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations

20 576

16,24%

225 286

25,42%

30,34%

673 007

30,89%

91 610

7,36%

1 470 572

16,29%

207 869

4,76%

3 203 963

10,48%

91 610

7,36%

1 470 572

16,29%

TOTAL RES & NON RES

207 869

4,76%

3 203 963

10,48%

* April 2018

22

0,11% 0,82%

3,40% 1,68% -5,38% -5,64% 0,13%

314 738 915 980 -1 306 603 170 229 285 091

6,55% 3,18% -6,91% 19,28% 1,35%

-26 373

-0,25% -0,25%

379 436

0,51% 0,51%

379 436 379 436

NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 R*1000

70 988

* April 2018

-2,31% -1,10%

33 489 69 117 -126 685 -6 147 3 852 -26 373 -26 373

Additions and alterations

GRAND TOTAL

1,48% 8,73%

FORECAST -0,25% 0,51% 0,96% 1,49%

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 R*1000

Other buildings

TOTAL

-0,92% 4,98%

2018 YTD

TOTAL NON RES

53 744 -86 706 -27 814 16 497 86 988

11,27% -10,11% -1,50% 3,51% 10,71%

656 050 -1 042 768 29 269 225 099 647 999

14,57% -13,90% 0,26% 6,75% 8,01%

42 709

0,96% 0,96%

515 649

1,49% 1,49%

42 709

515 649

16 336

0,11%

895 084

0,82%

16 336

0,11%

895 084

0,82%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: % CHANGE 2018 VS 2017

PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 (R*1000) (APRIL) Other + 19,28% Flats & Townhouses - 6,91%

Additions & Alterations

+ 1,35% % Change in Value of Building Plans Passed between YTD 2018 and 2017 by Building Type

Dwellings > 80 m2 + 3,18%

Residential + 0,51%

Dwellings < 80 m2 + 6,55%

All Buildings + 0,82% Non Residential + 1,49%

Offices & Banking + 14,57%

Shopping - 13,90% Additions & Alterations

Industrial & Warehousing + 0,26%

+ 8,01 %

23

Other + 6,75%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED BY SEGMENT: CUM YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 % Difference in Cumulative Y/Y BPP: Cum *YTD FC 2018 vs 2017 by Segment (* April) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA Chart 100)

0,67%

3,18%

8,01%

10,71% 1,35%

0,13%

6,75%

3,51%

0,26%

3,97% No

11,27% 3,18% R'000

1,68%

0,72%

6,55%

3,40%

10%

4,75%

20%

14,57%

19,28%

30%

-20%

-0,75%

-13,90%

-10,11%

-1,50%

-0,06%

-5,64%

-10%

-6,91%

-5,38%

0%

< 80m2

24

> 80m2

Flats and Townhouses

Other

Total Office and Shopping Ind&WH Banking

Other

Total

R'000

R'000

R'000

m2

R'000

m2

R'000

R'000

m2

R'000

m2

R'000

m2

R'000

m2

R'000

R'000

m2

R'000

m2

m2

No

R'000

m2

No

-30%

A&A A&A OtherTot A&A Dwellings Tot

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2017

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres

Total RSA 985 380 4 112 272

WC 6,72% 29,52%

EC 8,14% 28,96%

GAU 8,60% 27,15%

KZN 2,86% 15,49%

MPUM 6,58% 44,51%

NC 1,81% 33,64%

FS 1,41% 29,28%

LIMP 3,81% 45,23%

NW 8,23% 30,41%

Rank by segment 5 1

2 353 918 108 917

17,95% 0,63%

5,55% 0,86%

15,47% 0,26%

17,61% 1,57%

2,95% 0,82%

0,30% 0,68%

15,39% 0,56%

8,29% 2,75%

29,35% 0,25%

3 10

2 984 582

20,38%

28,09%

18,85%

15,57%

22,41%

33,95%

27,22%

14,54%

20,71%

2

10 545 069

75,21%

71,59%

70,33%

53,09%

77,27%

70,39%

73,86%

74,63%

88,94%

3,80% 4

10,61% 2

-12,58% 6

9,78% 3

-20,97% 9

-15,93% 7

-16,95% 8

-1,53% 5

25,03% 1

2

4

1

3

6

9

7

8

5

Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017

% Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Residential Rank by Y/Y Res Growth

0,84%

Rank by Res Size

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings

Total RSA 477 038 857 749 1 853 199 469 910

WC 2,89% 3,39% 8,54% 3,15%

EC 1,52% 1,82% 13,85% 3,23%

GAU 3,06% 4,13% 15,73% 3,10%

KZN 5,94% 14,65% 16,46% 2,85%

MPUM 1,91% 4,34% 8,62% 4,79%

NC 2,31% 6,28% 13,63% 3,77%

FS 1,21% 8,67% 7,90% 2,60%

LIMP 3,46% 5,66% 7,21% 6,56%

NW 0,57% 3,80% 2,87% 0,93%

Rank by segment 7 8 4 9

Additions and alterations

812 021

6,83%

7,99%

3,65%

7,01%

3,07%

3,63%

5,77%

2,49%

2,89%

6

TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 4 469 917 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Residential -9,02%

24,79% -4,76%

28,41% 21,40%

29,67% -3,41%

46,91% -19,43%

22,73% -41,68%

29,61% -12,80%

26,14% 0,77%

25,37% 54,42%

11,06% -37,87%

GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 15 2017 014 986 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & Non -2,31% Res Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth

100,00% 1,54% 4

100,00% 13,48% 2

100,00% -10,05% 5

100,00% -6,17% 7

100,00% -26,87% 9

100,00% -15,02% 6

100,00% -12,95% 3

100,00% 8,44% 1

100,00% 12,44% 8

3

4

1

2

6

9

5

7

8

1 3 3 485 253 1 327 916 1 470 317 1 173 130 4 955 570 2 501 046 29,67% 46,91%

6 442 340 130 125 572 465 22,73%

9 80 277 33 775 114 052 29,61%

7 374 282 132 487 506 769 26,14%

8 281 737 95 778 377 515 25,37%

5 566 126 70 432 636 558 11,06%

Rank by Non Res Size Rank by Total Size RSA *Dec 2017

25

10 545 069 4 469 917 15 014 986

2 4 3 251 881 735 257 1 072 119 291 754 4 324 000 1 027 011 24,79% 28,41%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: RES BPP BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2017

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

RES BLDNG PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: *YTD 2017: M2 (* DEC) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA Chart 88 (3))

WC EC GAU KZN MPUM NC FS LIMP NW Rank by segment size SA

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 Rank by Res Size TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 Rank by Non Res Size GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2017 Rank by Total Size RSA

26

Rank by segment size SA 5 1 3 10 2

NW

LIMP

FS

NC

MPUM

KZN

GAU

EC

WC

8,23% 30,41% 29,35% 0,25% 20,71% 88,94% 5 11,06% 8

3,81% 45,23% 8,29% 2,75% 14,54% 74,63% 8 25,37% 7

1,41% 29,28% 15,39% 0,56% 27,22% 73,86% 7 26,14% 5

1,81% 33,64% 0,30% 0,68% 33,95% 70,39% 9 29,61% 9

6,58% 44,51% 2,95% 0,82% 22,41% 77,27% 6 22,73% 6

2,86% 15,49% 17,61% 1,57% 15,57% 53,09% 3 46,91% 2

8,60% 27,15% 15,47% 0,26% 18,85% 70,33% 1 29,67% 1

8,14% 28,96% 5,55% 0,86% 28,09% 71,59% 4 28,41% 4

6,72% 29,52% 17,95% 0,63% 20,38% 75,21% 2 24,79% 3

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

5

8

7

9

6

3

1

4

2

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: NON RES BPP BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2017

45%

40%

35%

25%

30%

20%

15%

10%

NW

LIMP

FS

NC

MPUM

KZN

GAU

EC

WC

0,57% 3,80% 2,87% 0,93% 2,89% 11,06% 8 88,94% 5

3,46% 5,66% 7,21% 6,56% 2,49% 25,37% 7 74,63% 8

1,21% 8,67% 7,90% 2,60% 5,77% 26,14% 5 73,86% 7

2,31% 6,28% 13,63% 3,77% 3,63% 29,61% 9 70,39% 9

1,91% 4,34% 8,62% 4,79% 3,07% 22,73% 6 77,27% 6

5,94% 14,65% 16,46% 2,85% 7,01% 46,91% 2 53,09% 3

3,06% 4,13% 15,73% 3,10% 3,65% 29,67% 1 70,33% 1

1,52% 1,82% 13,85% 3,23% 7,99% 28,41% 4 71,59% 4

2,89% 3,39% 8,54% 3,15% 6,83% 24,79% 3 75,21% 2

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%

5

8

7

9

6

3

1

4

2

5%

0%

NON RES BLDNG PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: * YTD 2017: M2 (* DEC) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA Chart 88(4))

WC EC GAU KZN MPUM NC FS LIMP NW Rank by segment size SA

Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 Rank by Non Res Size TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 Rank by Res Size GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2017 Rank by Total Size RSA

27

Rank by segment size SA 7 8 4 9 6

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2018 (APRIL)

Recorded building plans passed by larger municipalities aggregated to provincial level:January to April 2017 versus January to April 2018

Estimates at current prices

January to April 2017 R*1000

Western Cape

8 656 348

Eastern Cape

1 663 588

Northern Cape Free State KwaZulu-Natal North West Gauteng Mpumalanga Limpopo Total Check

120 180 1 179 377 5 524 336 1 277 114 10 636 875 860 246 653 923 30 571 987 30 571 987

Contribution (% points) Difference in % contribution to the % change in the January to to the total value % change between value between value of buildings April 2018 of building plans Jan to April 2017 and Jan to April completed between Jan 2017 and 2018 passed during Jan to April 2018 to April 2017 and Jan to April 2017 R*1000 R*1000 April 2018 7,84% 11 060 424 27,77% 2,18% 2 404 076 1,51% 4 697 580 182,38% 2,75% 3 033 992 0,11% 331 444 175,79% 0,19% 211 264 1 282 715 1,07% 8,76% 0,09% 103 338 6 453 165 5,00% 16,81% 0,84% 928 829 1 026 089 1,16% -19,66% -0,23% -251 025 9 689 109 9,63% -8,91% -0,86% -947 766 1 133 302 0,78% 31,74% 0,25% 273 056 557 586 0,59% -14,73% -0,09% -96 337 36 231 414 27,68% 18,51% 5,12% 5 659 427 33 775 950

1. 2016 and 2017 figures should be regarded as preliminary because of possible backlogs and incomplete reporting by municipalities. 2. The contribution (percentage points) is calculated by multiplying the percentage change of each province between January to Nov 2016 and January to Nov 2017 by the percentage contribution of the corresponding province to the total value of buildings completed during January to Nov 2016, divided by 100.

Six provinces reported year-on-year increases in the value of Building Plans Passed during Jan to April 2018. The largest contributions were recorded for Eastern Cape (contributing 2,75 percentage points or R3 033,99 million), Western Cape (contributing 2,18 percentage points or R2 404,08 million), KZN (contributing 0,84 percentage points or R928,83 Million), Mpumalanga (contributing 0,25 percentage points or R273,06 million), NC (contributing 0,19 percentage points or R211,26 million) and Free State (contributing 0,09 percentage points or R103,34 million).

28

Š BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP: CUM YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 RES BPP BY SEGMENT: TOTAL RSA: *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 (*APRIL) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; Chart 93) -100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

600%

700%

800%

20,97%

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres

18,50%

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres

-1,97% 4,05%

m2

R*1000

2,98%

Flats and townhouses

0,61%

358,76%

Other buildings

743,27%

-0,28%

Additions and alterations

4,99%

TOTAL RES

29

500%

3,72% 8,05%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT RRALITY: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD FC 2018 VS 2017 NON RES AND TOTAL BPP BY SEGMENT: TOTAL RSA: CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 (* APRIL)

(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA, Chart 96) 20,69%

Office and banking

32,57%

25,20%

Shopping

20,69%

-13,37%

Industrial and warehouse

-5,90%

16,24%

Other buildings

25,42%

Additions and alterations

m2

30,34% 30,89%

R*1000 7,36%

TOTAL

16,29%

4,76%

GRAND TOTAL -20%

30

10,48% -10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

SENSE MAKING UPDATE: YEAR TO DATE 2018 (MARCH 2018) Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU REPORT OUTLINE SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION: SLIDES 3 – 10 SECTION 2: SLIDES 11 - 30 Analysis of trends in BPP: YTD Actual and YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 3: SLIDES 31 - 58 Analysis of trends in BC; *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 4: SLIDES 59 - 68 Connecting the dots: Analysis of trends in GFCF Res, Non Res and Total Building; *YTD Actual and Forecast for 2018 - 2025

31

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: BUILDINGS COMPLETED BY SEGMENT: YTD ACTUAL 2017

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): *CUM YTD ACTUAL 2018 m2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 144 716 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 756 001 Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL

% 8,04% 41,99%

R*1000 794 037 5 560 520

% 6,00% 42,00%

498 341 36 269 365 164 1 800 491 69,53% 1 800 491

27,68% 2,01% 20,28% 100,00%

4 011 080 257 501 2 617 232 13 240 370 69,50% 13 240 370

30,29% 1,94% 19,77% 100,00%

m2 163 486 76 105 357 539

% 20,72% 9,64% 45,30%

R*1000 1 471 975 609 000 2 079 621

% 25,33% 10,48% 35,79%

59 733

7,57%

438 801

7,55%

NON RES BLDNGS COMP (BC): *YTD ACTUAL 2018 Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL GRAND TOTAL * April 2018

32

132 330 789 193 30,47% 2 589 684 2 589 684 789 193

16,77% 100,00%

1 211 719 5 811 116 30,50% 19 051 486 19 051 486 5 811 116

20,85% 100,00%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDINGS COMPLETED: YTD ACTUAL 2018

PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDINGS COMPLETED: *YTD ACTUAL 2018 (*APRIL) Houses R6,35 Billion

Additions & Alterations

Additions & Alterations

R2,62 Billion

% Contribution of Building Type to Total Value of Buildings Completed: YTD 2017 Residential

69,50% R13,24 Billion BPP/BC = 1,76 NBIP = 76%*BC

Total Value R19,05 Billion BPP/BC = 1,34 NBIP = 34%*BC

Industrial & Warehousing R2,08 Billion

R1,21 Billion

Non Res

30,50% R5,81 Billion BPP/BC = 1,81 NBIP = 81%*BC

Offices & Banking R1,47 Billion Other R0,26 Billion

Total Additions & Alterations

20,11% Flats & Townhouses R4,01 Billion

33

R3,83 Billion

Other R0,44 Billion Shopping R0,61 Billion

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BC: YTD ACTUAL AND FORECAST 2018

Apr-18 BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (m2 and value) Residential BC (m2) Residential BC (R) Non Residential BC (m2) Non Residential BC (R) Total BC (m2) Total BC (R) Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R)

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres -90 468 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres -61 474 Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RES

-19 499 -123 419 -507 -295 367 -295 367

2015 vs 2014 165,12% 34,02% 110,83% 15,15% 146,78% 27,32% 144,52% 17,19%

-38,47% -7,52% -3,77% -77,29% -0,14% -14,09% -14,09%

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 Office and banking -63 959 -28,12% Shopping -108 425 -58,76% Industrial and warehouse 101 087 39,42% Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL NON RES TOTAL RES & NON RES * April 2018

34

6 831

12,91%

10 748 -53 718 -53 718 -349 085 -349 085

8,84% -6,37% -6,37% -11,88% -11,88%

R*1000 -314 216 -210 816 -139 -1 372 371 -1 665 -1 665

2016 vs 2015 -58,62% -7,51% -56,25% -11,10% -57,94% -8,67% -77,48% -8,64%

-28,35% -3,65%

231 943 424 782 782

-3,35% -84,21% 16,54% -11,18% -11,18%

R*1000 -596 391 -910 661 640 764

-28,83% -59,93% 44,53%

42 611

10,76%

77 -746 -746 -2 412 -2 412

232 445 445 227 227

6,81% -11,38% -11,38% -11,24% -11,24%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act FC 2015 2016 2017 vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST Act Act 0,25% -14,09% -58,62% 0,25% 165,12% 9,92% -11,18% -7,51% 9,92% 34,02% 22,67% -6,37% -56,25% 22,67% 110,83% 39,91% -11,38% -11,10% 39,91% 15,15% 6,98% -11,88% -57,94% 6,98% 146,78% 19,29% -11,24% -8,67% 19,29% 27,32% 6,86% -15,22% 144,52% -57,62% 6,86% 21,09% -11,27% 27,89% -9,34% 21,09%

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 % Dwelling-house < 80 square metres -15 812 -2,28% Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 95 443 3,32% Flats and townhouses -37 204 -2,42% Other buildings -154 049 -67,21%

2018 FORECAST -1,16% 2,25% -21,33% -20,63% -8,10% -6,13% -7,57% -5,50%

R*1000 178 707 1 642 470 28 580 -1 560 312

% 5,32% 7,98% 0,23% -71,18%

3,11% -1,16%

756 984 1 046 429

9,83% 2,25%

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 % Office and banking -141 722 -22,64% Shopping -543 361 -56,15% Industrial and warehouse -43 644 -3,79% Other buildings -24 418 -8,99% Additions and alterations 24 845 6,25% TOTAL NON RES -728 300 -21,33% -728 300 -21,33% TOTAL RES & NON RES -803 471 -8,10% * April 2018 -803 471 -8,10%

R*1000 -1 116 631 -4 584 204 5 646 -124 965 281 589 -5 538 565 -5 538 565 -4 492 137 -4 492 137

% -19,25% -55,18% 0,08% -5,81% 7,21% -20,63% -20,63% -6,13% -6,13%

Additions and alterations TOTAL RES

36 451 -75 170 -75 170

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BC: % CHANGE 2018 VS 2017 (R*1000)

PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDINGS COMPLETED: YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 (R*1000) (APRIL) Other - 84,21% Flats & Townhouses - 3,35%

Additions & Alterations

+ 16,54% % Change in Value of Building Plans Passed between YTD 2018 and 2017 by Building Type

Dwellings > 80 m2 - 3,65%

Residential - 11,18%

Dwellings < 80 m2 - 28,35%

All Buildings - 11,24% Non Residential - 11,38%

Offices & Banking - 28,83%

Shopping - 59,93% Additions & Alterations

Industrial & Warehousing + 44,53%

+ 6,81%

35

Other + 10,76%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2017

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Res Rank by Y/Y Res Growth Rank by Res Size * Dec 2017

Total RSA W estern Cape Eastern Cape 7,39% 6,81% 693 713 28,38% 38,88% 2 871 035 14,84% 2,73% 1 539 872 2,15% 1,32% 229 216 18,07% 29,78% 1 173 145 70,82% 79,53% 6 506 981 0,25% 11,92% -16,85% 2 5 2 5 65,59%

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest 8,41% 0,49% 12,09% 0,19% 8,74% 17,45% 6,23% 30,49% 17,32% 42,93% 20,54% 27,46% 36,53% 45,90% 18,18% 13,23% 14,21% 3,06% 26,58% 10,42% 12,76% 3,20% 1,33% 0,00% 1,49% 0,22% 3,93% 0,24% 6,44% 8,71% 11,68% 29,29% 25,57% 2,30% 10,00% 66,73% 41,09% 80,92% 54,56% 88,58% 70,63% 75,12% 2,31% 13,55% -41,76% -40,50% -32,44% 8,28% -26,21% 4 1 9 8 7 3 6 1 3 8 9 6 7 4

Rank by Total Segment Size 6,99% 6 28,94% 1 15,52% 2 2,31% 8 11,83% 4 65,59% 0,25%

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 W estern Cape Eastern Cape Total RSA Office and banking 4,15% 1,10% 626 059 Shopping 5,98% 0,62% 967 611 Industrial and warehouse 10,19% 6,76% 1 151 206 Other buildings 3,39% 1,69% 271 584 5,46% 10,31% Additions and alterations 397 407 29,18% 20,47% TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 20173 413 867 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Res 22,67% 25,20% 45,79% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 5 3 34,41% Rank by Non Res Size 2 5 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 9 920 2017 848 100,00% 100,00% % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & 6,98% Non Res 16,84% -5,79% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 100,00% 2 5 Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 * Dec 2017

36

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest 9,97% 4,87% 1,37% 5,88% 1,73% 1,36% 2,13% 4,91% 35,93% 6,64% 2,27% 0,66% 2,81% 8,56% 13,77% 12,19% 7,78% 4,50% 0,90% 18,64% 6,02% 2,44% 1,48% 1,06% 26,13% 6,88% 4,83% 0,43% 2,17% 4,44% 2,24% 6,67% 1,24% 1,74% 7,74% 33,27% 58,91% 19,08% 45,44% 11,42% 29,37% 24,88% 23,88% 49,34% -47,54% 63,01% -77,75% -6,87% 42,71% 6 2 8 1 9 7 4 1 3 7 8 9 6 4 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 7,93% 34,62% -41,66% -21,07% -48,07% 0,84% -25,46% 3 1 8 6 9 4 7 1 3 6 9 8 7 4

Rank by Total Segment Size 6,31% 7 9,75% 5 11,60% 3 2,74% 9 4,01% 8 34,41% 22,67%

6,98%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: RES BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2017

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

RES BLDNGS COMPLETED (BC) BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: *YTD 2017: M2 (* DEC) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BC SA Chart 88 (2))

Western Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern Cape Free State Limpopo Northwest Total Rank by Segment Size SA (%)

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Res Rank by Y/Y Res Growth Rank by Res Size TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017

37

Rank by Segment Size SA (%) 6 1 2 8 4

Total

Northwes Limpopo t

6,99% 6,23% 28,94% 45,90% 15,52% 12,76% 2,31% 0,24% 11,83% 10,00% 65,59% 75,12% 0,25% -26,21% 6 4 34,41% 24,88%

Free State

Northern Mpumala Kwazulu Eastern Western Gauteng Cape nga Natal Cape Cape

17,45% 8,74% 0,19% 36,53% 27,46% 20,54% 10,42% 26,58% 3,06% 3,93% 0,22% 1,49% 2,30% 25,57% 29,29% 70,63% 88,58% 54,56% 8,28% -32,44% -40,50% 3 7 8 7 6 9 29,37% 11,42% 45,44%

12,09% 42,93% 14,21% 0,00% 11,68% 80,92% -41,76% 9 8 19,08%

0,49% 17,32% 13,23% 1,33% 8,71% 41,09% 13,55% 1 3 58,91%

8,41% 6,81% 7,39% 30,49% 38,88% 28,38% 18,18% 2,73% 14,84% 3,20% 1,32% 2,15% 6,44% 29,78% 18,07% 66,73% 79,53% 70,82% 2,31% -16,85% 11,92% 4 5 2 1 5 2 33,27% 20,47% 29,18%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: NON RES BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: YTD 2017

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

NON RES BLDNGS COMPLETED (BC) BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: *YTD 2017: M2 (* DEC) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA Chart 88(3))

Western Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern Cape Free State Limpopo Northwest Total Rank by Segment Size SA (%)

Office and banking Shopping Industrial and warehouse Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Res Rank by Non Res Size TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2017 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & Non Res Rank by Total size RSA

38

Rank by Segment Northwes Free Total Limpopo Size SA t State (%) 7 6,31% 2,13% 1,36% 1,73% 5 9,75% 8,56% 2,81% 0,66% 3 11,60% 6,02% 18,64% 0,90% 9 2,74% 0,43% 4,83% 6,88% 8 4,01% 7,74% 1,74% 1,24% 34,41% 24,88% 29,37% 11,42% 22,67% 42,71% -6,87% -77,75% 4 6 9 65,59% 75,12% 70,63% 88,58%

Northern Mpumala Kwazulu Eastern Western Gauteng Cape nga Natal Cape Cape 5,88% 2,27% 4,50% 26,13% 6,67% 45,44% 63,01% 8 54,56%

1,37% 6,64% 7,78% 1,06% 2,24% 19,08% -47,54% 7 80,92%

4,87% 35,93% 12,19% 1,48% 4,44% 58,91% 49,34% 3 41,09%

9,97% 4,91% 13,77% 2,44% 2,17% 33,27% 23,88% 1 66,73%

1,10% 0,62% 6,76% 1,69% 10,31% 20,47% 45,79% 5 79,53%

4,15% 5,98% 10,19% 3,39% 5,46% 29,18% 25,20% 2 70,82%

100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 6,98%

-25,46%

0,84%

4

7

-48,07% -21,07% -41,66% 34,62% 8

9

6

3

7,93%

-5,79%

16,84%

1

5

2

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BPP BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE:CUM YTD 2018 (APRIL)

Buildings reported as completed to larger municipalities aggregated to provincial level: January to April 2018 versus January to April 2017

Estimates at current prices

January to April 2017

January to April 2018

R*1000

R*1000

Difference in value % contribution to Contribution (% points) to % change between the total value of the % change in the value of between January to January to Nov buildings buildings completed between Dec 2017 and January 2017 and January to Dec 2018 completed during January to April 2017 and to Dec 2018 April 2018 January to April 2018 R*1000

5 656 226

6 308 389

33,11%

11,53%

3,82%

652 163

Eastern Cape

531 878

666 083

3,50%

25,23%

0,88%

134 205

Northern Cape

96 314

118 471

0,62%

23,00%

0,14%

22 157

325 135

403 104

2,12%

23,98%

0,51%

77 969

3 270 246 545 350 10 374 761

2 071 695 888 758 7 791 224

10,87% 4,67% 40,90%

-36,65% 62,97% -24,90%

-3,99% 2,94% -10,18%

-1 198 551 343 408 -2 583 537

Mpumalanga

426 457

506 022

2,66%

18,66%

0,50%

79 565

Limpopo

237 346

297 740

1,56%

25,45%

0,40%

60 394

Total

21 463 713

19 051 486

100,00%

-11,24%

-4,99%

-2 412 227

Check

21 463 713

19 051 486

Western Cape

Free State KwaZulu-Natal North West Gauteng

1/ 2016 and 2017 figures should be regarded as preliminary because of possible backlogs and incomplete reporting by municipalities. 2/ The contribution (percentage points) is calculated by multiplying the percentage change of each province between January to Nov 2016 and January to Nov 2017 by the percentage contribution of the corresponding province to the total value of buildings completed during January to Nov 2016, divided by 100. SEVEN provinces reported year-on-year increases in the value of buildings completed during January to April 2018. The largest contributions were recorded by Western Cape (contributing 3,82 percentage points or R652,16 million), EC (contributing 0,88 percentage points or R134,21 million) FS (contributing 0,51 percentage points or R77,97 million) and Mpumalanga (contributing 0,50 percentage points or R79,57 million).

39

Š BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDINGS COMPLETED: YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017

The 2018 YTD Actual Residential BC (April) vs the same period in 2017 shows a DECREASE of - 14,09% in m2; and a DECREASE of – 11,18% in value. The 2018 YTD Actual Non Residential BC (April) vs 2017 recorded a DECREASE of -6,37% in m2; and of – 11,38% in value. Therefore, the 2018 YTD Actual Total BC (April) vs 2017 shows a DECREASE of – 11,88% in m2 and of – 11,24% in value. Apr-18 BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (m2 and value) Residential BC (m2) Residential BC (R) Non Residential BC (m2) Non Residential BC (R) Total BC (m2) Total BC (R) Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R)

2015 vs 2014 165,12% 34,02% 110,83% 15,15% 146,78% 27,32% 144,52% 17,19%

2016 vs 2015 -58,62% -7,51% -56,25% -11,10% -57,94% -8,67% -77,48% -8,64%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act FC 2015 2016 2017 vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST Act 0,25% -14,09% -58,62% 0,25% 165,12% 9,92% -11,18% -7,51% 9,92% 34,02% 22,67% -6,37% -56,25% 22,67% 110,83% 39,91% -11,38% -11,10% 39,91% 15,15% 6,98% -11,88% -57,94% 6,98% 146,78% 19,29% -11,24% -8,67% 19,29% 27,32% 6,86% -15,22% 144,52% -57,62% 6,86% 21,09% -11,27% 27,89% -9,34% 21,09%

2018 FORECAST -1,16% 2,25% -21,33% -20,63% -8,10% -6,13% -7,57% -5,50%

The 2018 YTD Forecast (April) Residential BC vs the same period in 2017 shows a DECREASE of – 1,16% in m2; and an INCREASE of + 2,25% in value. The 2018 YTD Forecast (April) Non Residential BC vs 2017 records a DECREASE of – 21,33% in m2; and a DECREASE of – 20,63% in value. Therefore the 2018 YTD Forecast (April) Total BC vs 2017 shows a DECREASE of – 8,10% in m2 and of – 6,13% in value. 40

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDINGS COMPLETED BY SEGMENT: YTD FORECAST 2018

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 m2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 677 901 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 2 966 478 Flats and townhouses 1 502 668 Other buildings 75 167 Additions and alterations TOTAL

1 209 596 6 431 811 70,54% 6 431 811 NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST m2 Office and banking 484 337 Shopping 424 250 Industrial and warehouse 1 107 562 Other buildings 247 166 Additions and alterations 422 252 TOTAL 2 685 567 29,46% TOTAL 9 117 377 * April 2018 9 117 377

41

% 10,54% 46,12% 23,36% 1,17%

R*1000 3 538 384 22 237 520 12 602 209 631 858

% 7,45% 46,85% 26,55% 1,33%

18,81% 100,00%

8 457 600 47 467 571 69,02% 47 467 571

17,82% 100,00%

R*1000 4 683 661 3 723 515 6 684 560 2 026 346 4 184 947 21 303 029 30,98% 68 770 599 68 770 599

% 21,99% 17,48% 31,38% 9,51% 19,64% 100,00%

2018 % 18,03% 15,80% 41,24% 9,20% 15,72% 100,00%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDINGS COMPLETED: YTD FC 2018

BMi

PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDINGS COMPLETED: *YTD FORECAST 2018 (* APRIL) Houses R25,78 Million

Additions & Alterations R8,46 Billion

Residential

69,02% R47,47 Billion BPP/BC = 1,76 NBIP = 76%*BC

Additions & Alterations

% Contribution of Building Type to Total Value of Buildings Completed: YTD 2018

Total Value R68,77 Billion BPP/BC = 1,60 NBIP = 60%*BC

Industrial & Warehousing R6,68 Billion

R4,18 Billion

Non Res

30,98% R21,30 Billion BPP/BC = 1,65 NBIP = 65%*BC

Offices & Banking R4,68 Billion Other R0,63 Billion

Total Additions & Alterations

18,38% Flats & Townhouses R12,60 Billion

42

R12,64 Billion

Other R2,03 Billion Shopping R3,72 Billion

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMI

CURRENT REALITY: RES BC BY SEGMENT: YTD FC 2018: M2 & R*1000 (APRIL)

4

1

R68,77 BILLION

BUILDING INVESTMENT

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R47,47 BILLION (69,02%)

5 NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R21,30 BILLION (30,98%)

* Constant 2016 Prices

43

2

3

DWELLINGS < 80 M2 (7,45%)

DWELLINGS < 80 M2 (10,54%)

R3,54 BILLION

0,68 MILLION M2

DWELLINGS > 80 M2 (46,85%)

DWELLINGS > 80 M2 (46,12%)

R22,24 BILLION

2,97 MILLION M2

FLATS AND TOWNHOUSES (26,55%)

FLATS AND TOWNHOUSES (23,36%)

R12,60 BILLION

1,50 MILLION M2

OTHER (1,33%)

OTHER (1,17%)

R0,63 BILLION

0,75 MILLION M2

ADDITIONS AND ALTERATIONS (17,82%)

ADDITIONS AND ALTERATIONS (18,81%)

R8,46 BILLION

1,21 MILLION M2

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R47,47 BILLION (69,02%)

6,43 MILLION M2 (70,54%)

5

1

2

4

3

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMI

NON RES BC BY SEGMENT: YTD FC: M2 & R*1000 2018 (APRIL)

3

1

R68,77 BILLION

BUILDING INVESTMENT

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R47,47 BILLION (69,02%)

2

5

OFFICES AND BANKING (22,23%)

OFFICES AND BANKING (18,03%)

R4,72 BILLION

0,48 MILLION M2

SHOPPING (18,31%)

SHOPPING (15,80%)

R3,89 BILLION

0,42 MI8LION M2

INDUSTRIAL WAREHOUSING (30,04%)

INDUSTRIAL & WAREHOUSING (41,24%)

R6,37 BILLION

1,11 MILLION M2

OTHER (9,64%)

OTHER (9,20%)

R2,05 BILLION

0,25 MILLION M2

ADDITIONS AND ALTERATIONS (19,77%)

ADDITIONS AND ALTERATIONS (15,72%)

R4,19 BILLION

0,42 MILLION M2

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R21,30 BILLION (30,98%)

2,69 MILLION M2 (29,46%)

2

3

1

5

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R21,30 BILLION (30,98%)

4

4

* Constant 2016 Prices

44

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BC BY SEGMENT: YTD ACTUAL AND FORECAST 2018 VS 2017

Apr-18 2016 vs 2015 -58,62% -7,51% -56,25% -11,10% -57,94% -8,67% -77,48% -8,64%

BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (m2 and value) Residential BC (m2) Residential BC (R) Non Residential BC (m2) Non Residential BC (R) Total BC (m2) Total BC (R) Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R)

2015 vs 2014 165,12% 34,02% 110,83% 15,15% 146,78% 27,32% 144,52% 17,19%

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres -90 468 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres -61 474

-38,47% -7,52%

R*1000 -314 216 -210 816

-28,35% -3,65%

-3,77% -77,29% -0,14% -14,09% -14,09%

-139 231 -1 372 943 371 424 -1 665 782 -1 665 782

-3,35% -84,21% 16,54% -11,18% -11,18%

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD ACTUAL 2018 VS 2017 m2 Office and banking -63 959 -28,12% Shopping -108 425 -58,76% Industrial and warehouse 101 087 39,42%

R*1000 -596 391 -910 661 640 764

-28,83% -59,93% 44,53%

Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RES

Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL NON RES TOTAL RES & NON RES * April 2018

45

-19 499 -123 419 -507 -295 367 -295 367

6 831

12,91%

42 611

10,76%

10 748 -53 718 -53 718 -349 085 -349 085

8,84% -6,37% -6,37% -11,88% -11,88%

77 232 -746 445 -746 445 -2 412 227 -2 412 227

6,81% -11,38% -11,38% -11,24% -11,24%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act FC 2015 2016 2017 vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST 0,25% -14,09% -58,62% 0,25% 165,12% 9,92% -11,18% -7,51% 9,92% 34,02% 22,67% -6,37% -56,25% 22,67% 110,83% 39,91% -11,38% -11,10% 39,91% 15,15% 6,98% -11,88% -57,94% 6,98% 146,78% 19,29% -11,24% -8,67% 19,29% 27,32% 6,86% -15,22% 144,52% -57,62% 6,86% 21,09% -11,27% 27,89% -9,34% 21,09%

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 % Dwelling-house < 80 square metres -15 812 -2,28% Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 95 443 3,32% Flats and townhouses -37 204 -2,42% Other buildings -154 049 -67,21%

2018 FORECAST -1,16% 2,25% -21,33% -20,63% -8,10% -6,13% -7,57% -5,50%

R*1000 178 707 1 642 470 28 580 -1 560 312

% 5,32% 7,98% 0,23% -71,18%

3,11% -1,16%

756 984 1 046 429

9,83% 2,25%

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 % Office and banking -141 722 -22,64% Shopping -543 361 -56,15% Industrial and warehouse -43 644 -3,79% Other buildings -24 418 -8,99% Additions and alterations 24 845 6,25% TOTAL NON RES -728 300 -21,33% -728 300 -21,33% TOTAL RES & NON RES -803 471 -8,10% * April 2018 -803 471 -8,10%

R*1000 -1 116 631 -4 584 204 5 646 -124 965 281 589 -5 538 565 -5 538 565 -4 492 137 -4 492 137

% -19,25% -55,18% 0,08% -5,81% 7,21% -20,63% -20,63% -6,13% -6,13%

Additions and alterations TOTAL RES

36 451 -75 170 -75 170

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BC: % CHANGE CUM YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 PRIVATE SECTOR BC: YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 (R*1000) (* APRIL) Other - 71,18% Flats & Townhouses + 0,23%

Additions & Alterations

+ 9,83% % Change in Value of Buildings Completed between YTD FC 2018 and 2017 by Building Type

Dwellings > 80 m2 + 7,98%

Residential + 2,25%

Dwellings < 80 m2 + 5,32%

All Buildings - 6,13% Non Residential - 20,63%

Offices & Banking - 19,25%

Shopping - 65,18% Additions & Alterations

Industrial & Warehousing + 0,08%

+ 29,81% Other - 5,81%

46

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SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: *YTD 2017

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 Total RSA W estern Cape Eastern Cape Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 693 713 234 573 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 2 871 035 901 021 Flats and townhouses 1 539 872 471 355 Other buildings 229 216 68 156 Additions and alterations 1 173 145 573 759 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD 2017 6 506 981 2 248 864 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Residential 0,25% 11,92% Rank by Y/Y Res Growth 2 Rank by Res Size 2 Check 6 506 981 2 248 864 34,56% RES BC BY PROVINCE * Dec 2017 NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT

20 901 337 758 119 313 1 224 364 8 378 730 097 4 056 128 661 91 389 258 531 244 037 2 679 411 -16,85% 2,31% 5 4 5 1 244 037 2 679 411 3,75% 41,18%

7 251 29 454 120 12 993 254 122 104 588 12 929 40 809 194 080 34 621 1 928 39 507 19 489 0 935 331 127 750 28 465 18 437 38 008 602 692 197 128 34 349 131 648 13,55% -41,76% -40,50% -32,44% 1 9 8 7 3 8 9 6 602 692 197 128 34 349 131 648 9,26% 3,03% 0,53% 2,02%

Rank by Segment

Total

30 198 20 465 63 204 150 685 18 021 41 885 6 803 785 3 979 32 827 122 205 246 647 8,28% -26,21% 3 6 7 4 122 205 246 647 1,88% 3,79%

693 713 2 871 035 1 539 872 229 216 1 173 145 6 506 981 0,25%

6,99% 28,94% 15,52% 2,31% 11,83% 65,59%

6 506 981 100,00%

65,59%

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest 400 529 71 435 3 334 3 704 2 573 2 349 6 983 197 137 527 089 16 180 1 426 983 4 855 28 110 553 011 178 808 18 942 2 830 1 340 32 245 19 756 98 015 21 667 2 587 16 448 10 231 8 348 1 402 87 234 65 119 5 451 4 200 1 840 3 011 25 423 1 335 926 864 118 46 494 28 608 16 967 50 808 81 674 23,88% 49,34% -47,54% 63,01% -77,75% -6,87% 42,71% 6 2 8 1 9 7 4 1 3 7 8 9 6 4 4 015 337 1 466 810 243 622 62 957 148 615 173 013 328 321 7,93% 34,62% -41,66% -21,07% -48,07% 0,84% -25,46% 3 1 8 6 9 4 7 1 3 6 9 8 7 4 1 335 926 864 118 41 482 28 608 16 967 50 808 81 674 4 015 337 1 466 810 243 622 62 957 148 615 173 013 328 321 39,13% 25,31% 1,36% 0,84% 0,50% 1,49% 2,39% 40,47% 14,79% 2,46% 0,63% 1,50% 1,74% 3,31%

Total 626 059 967 611 1 151 206 271 584 397 407 3 413 867 22,67%

AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2

W estern Cape Eastern Cape Total RSA Office and banking 626 059 131 791 3 361 Shopping 967 611 189 939 1 892 Industrial and warehouse 1 151 206 323 540 20 734 Other buildings 271 584 107 693 5 193 Additions and alterations 397 407 173 500 31 629 TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD 20173 413 867 926 463 62 809 % Change Cum YTD 2016 vs 2015 Non Residential 22,67% 25,20% 45,79% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 5 3 Rank by Non Res Size 2 5 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 9 920 2014 848 3 175 327 306 846 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & 6,98% Non Res 16,84% -5,79% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 2 5 Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 Check Non Res 3 413 867 926 463 62 809 Check Total 9 920 848 3 175 327 306 846 NON RES BC BY PROVINCE 27,14% 1,84% TOTAL RES & NON RES BC BY PROVINCE 32,01% 3,09%

47

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest

9 920 848 6,98%

6,31% 9,75% 11,60% 2,74% 4,01% 34,41%

6 1 2 8 4

Rank by segment 7 5 3 9 8

100,00%

3 408 855 9 920 848 100,00% 100,00%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: *YTD 2017

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 Total RSA W estern Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 33,81% 3,01% 48,69% 1,05% 4,25% 0,02% 1,87% 4,35% 2,95% 693 713 31,38% 4,16% 42,65% 8,85% 3,64% 0,45% 1,42% 2,20% 5,25% Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 2 871 035 30,61% 0,54% 47,41% 12,60% 2,25% 0,13% 2,57% 1,17% 2,72% Flats and townhouses 1 539 872 Other buildings 29,73% 1,77% 56,13% 8,50% 0,00% 0,41% 0,14% 2,97% 0,34% 229 216 48,91% 7,79% 22,04% 10,89% 2,43% 1,57% 3,24% 0,34% 2,80% Additions and alterations 1 173 145 34,56% 3,75% 41,18% 9,26% 3,03% 0,53% 2,02% 1,88% 3,79% TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 6 506 981 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Residential 0,25% 11,92% -16,85% 2,31% 13,55% -41,76% -40,50% -32,44% 8,28% -26,21% Rank by Y/Y Res Growth 2 5 4 1 9 8 7 3 6 Rank by Res Size 2 5 1 3 8 9 6 7 4 * Dec 2017 65,59% NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 W estern Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest Total RSA Office and banking 21,05% 0,54% 63,98% 11,41% 0,53% 0,59% 0,41% 0,38% 1,12% 626 059 Shopping 19,63% 0,20% 20,37% 54,47% 1,67% 0,15% 0,10% 0,50% 2,91% 967 611 Industrial and warehouse 28,10% 1,80% 48,04% 15,53% 1,65% 0,25% 0,12% 2,80% 1,72% 1 151 206 Other buildings 39,65% 1,91% 36,09% 7,98% 0,95% 6,06% 3,77% 3,07% 0,52% 271 584 Additions and alterations 43,66% 7,96% 21,95% 16,39% 1,37% 1,06% 0,46% 0,76% 6,40% 397 407 27,14% 1,84% 39,13% 25,31% 1,36% 0,84% 0,50% 1,49% 2,39% TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 20173 413 867 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Residential 22,67% 29,18% 20,47% 33,27% 58,91% 19,08% 45,44% 11,42% 29,37% 24,88% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 5 3 6 2 8 1 9 7 4 34,41% Rank by Non Res Size 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 9 920 2017 848 32,01% 3,09% 40,47% 14,79% 2,46% 0,63% 1,50% 1,74% 3,31% % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & 6,98% Non Res 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 100,00% 2 5 3 1 8 6 9 4 7 Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 1 3 6 9 8 7 4 * Dec 2017

48

Total Rank SA 100,00% 6 100,00% 1 100,00% 2 100,00% 8 100,00% 4 100,00% 0,25%

Total Rank SA 100,00% 7 100,00% 5 100,00% 3 100,00% 9 100,00% 8 100,00% 34,41%

100,00%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: *YTD 2017

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres Dwelling-house => 80 square metres Flats and townhouses Other buildings Additions and alterations TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Res Rank by Y/Y Res Growth Rank by Res Size * Dec 2017

Total RSA W estern Cape Eastern Cape 7,39% 6,81% 693 713 28,38% 38,88% 2 871 035 14,84% 2,73% 1 539 872 2,15% 1,32% 229 216 18,07% 29,78% 1 173 145 70,82% 79,53% 6 506 981 0,25% 11,92% -16,85% 2 5 2 5 65,59%

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest 8,41% 0,49% 12,09% 0,19% 8,74% 17,45% 6,23% 30,49% 17,32% 42,93% 20,54% 27,46% 36,53% 45,90% 18,18% 13,23% 14,21% 3,06% 26,58% 10,42% 12,76% 3,20% 1,33% 0,00% 1,49% 0,22% 3,93% 0,24% 6,44% 8,71% 11,68% 29,29% 25,57% 2,30% 10,00% 66,73% 41,09% 80,92% 54,56% 88,58% 70,63% 75,12% 2,31% 13,55% -41,76% -40,50% -32,44% 8,28% -26,21% 4 1 9 8 7 3 6 1 3 8 9 6 7 4

Rank by Total Segment Size 6,99% 6 28,94% 1 15,52% 2 2,31% 8 11,83% 4 65,59% 0,25%

NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2017: M2 W estern Cape Eastern Cape Total RSA Office and banking 4,15% 1,10% 626 059 Shopping 5,98% 0,62% 967 611 Industrial and warehouse 10,19% 6,76% 1 151 206 Other buildings 3,39% 1,69% 271 584 Additions and alterations 5,46% 10,31% 397 407 29,18% 20,47% TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 20173 413 867 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Res 22,67% 25,20% 45,79% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 5 3 34,41% Rank by Non Res Size 2 5 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 9 920 2017 848 100,00% 100,00% % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & 6,98% Non Res 16,84% -5,79% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 100,00% 2 5 Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 * Dec 2017

49

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest 9,97% 4,87% 1,37% 5,88% 1,73% 1,36% 2,13% 4,91% 35,93% 6,64% 2,27% 0,66% 2,81% 8,56% 13,77% 12,19% 7,78% 4,50% 0,90% 18,64% 6,02% 2,44% 1,48% 1,06% 26,13% 6,88% 4,83% 0,43% 2,17% 4,44% 2,24% 6,67% 1,24% 1,74% 7,74% 33,27% 58,91% 19,08% 45,44% 11,42% 29,37% 24,88% 23,88% 49,34% -47,54% 63,01% -77,75% -6,87% 42,71% 6 2 8 1 9 7 4 1 3 7 8 9 6 4 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 7,93% 34,62% -41,66% -21,07% -48,07% 0,84% -25,46% 3 1 8 6 9 4 7 1 3 6 9 8 7 4

Rank by Total Segment Size 6,31% 7 9,75% 5 11,60% 3 2,74% 9 8 4,01% 34,41% 22,67%

6,98%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: *YTD 2017

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2018: M2

Total RSA W estern Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 6,25% 2,42% 6,37% 1,30% 7,28% 2,52% 8,87% 3,54% 3,71% 144 716 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 26,04% 26,98% 28,37% 32,57% 57,17% 13,18% 22,16% 46,73% 33,27% 756 001 21,06% 1,31% 21,29% 14,36% 3,48% 0,92% 26,05% 4,83% 27,13% Flats and townhouses 498 341 Other buildings 2,51% 0,00% 0,12% 0,40% 2,90% 0,00% 0,66% 16,15% 0,00% 36 269 Additions and alterations 14,58% 24,33% 7,57% 29,16% 14,64% 54,26% 16,68% 3,73% 24,52% 365 164 70,44% 55,05% 63,72% 77,78% 85,47% 70,88% 74,42% 74,97% 88,63% TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 1 800 491 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Res -14,09% -1,30% -24,78% -31,17% -11,72% -0,01% 15,75% -1,67% -12,83% 62,25% Rank by Y/Y Res Growth 4 8 9 6 3 2 5 7 1 Rank by Res Size 2 6 1 3 5 9 7 8 4 * April 2018 69,53% NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2018: M2

W estern Cape Eastern Cape Total RSA Office and banking 3,00% 0,37% 163 486 Shopping 4,29% 0,39% 76 105 Industrial and warehouse 12,30% 35,34% 357 539 Other buildings 3,68% 0,11% 59 733 Additions and alterations 6,29% 8,74% 132 330 29,56% 44,95% TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 789 193 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Res -6,37% 20,18% 94,59% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 4 3 30,47% Rank by Non Res Size 2 4 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2 589 2017 684 100,00% 100,00% % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & -14,82% Non Res 4,20% 3,85% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 4 5 100,00% Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 * April 2018

50

Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest 12,33% 0,41% 0,32% 0,00% 9,43% 5,84% 0,94% 2,59% 0,79% 1,64% 0,00% 3,51% 9,40% 0,57% 16,44% 12,14% 8,04% 3,30% 0,87% 8,65% 3,71% 1,73% 2,58% 0,27% 0,00% 0,53% 0,00% 2,14% 3,19% 6,30% 4,26% 25,83% 11,24% 1,13% 4,01% 36,28% 22,22% 14,53% 29,12% 25,58% 25,03% 11,37% -1,73% -69,92% -54,55% 12,90% 197,96% 98,63% -29,01% 6 9 8 5 1 2 7 1 3 8 9 6 7 5 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% -22,78% -38,27% -14,86% 14,91% 18,67% 1,41% 41,56% 8 9 7 3 2 6 1 1 3 6 9 7 8 4

Total 5,59% 29,19% 19,24% 1,40% 14,10% 69,53% -14,09%

Total 6,31% 2,94% 13,81% 2,31% 5,11% 30,47% -6,37%

Rank by Segment Size SA (%) 7 2 3 9 5

Rank by Segment Size SA (%) 4 6 1 8 5

100,00% -14,82%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

RES & NON RES BUILDING ACTIVITY BY PROVINCE: *YTD ACTUAL 2017 (* DEC) RESIDENTIAL BC (M2)

R73,23 BILLION

BUILDING INVESTMENT

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R46,42 BILLION (63,40%)

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R26,80 BILLION (36,60%)

* Constant 2016 Prices

51

2

WESTERN CAPE 34,56%

4

EASTERN CAPE 3,78%

1

GAUTENG 41,17%

3

KWAZULU/NATAL 9,26%

6

MPUMALANGA 3,01%

9

NORTHERN CAPE 0,53%

8

FREE STATE 2,02%

7

LIMPOPO 1,88%

5

NORTH WEST 3,79%

NON RES BC (M2) WESTERN CAPE 27,18% EASTERN CAPE 1,82% GAUTENG 39,20% KWAZULU/NATAL 25,35% MPUMALANGA 1,22%

3 5 1 2 6

NORTHERN CAPE 0,84%

8

FREE STATE 0,50%

9

LIMPOPO 1,49%

7

NORTH WEST 2,40%

4

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 100,00%

TOTAL NON RESIFDENTIAL 100,00%

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

6,50 MILLION M2 (65,63%)

3,41 MILLION M2 (34,37%) © BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: *YTD 2018

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2018: M2 Total RSA W estern Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 38,47% 1,77% 44,52% 1,93% 4,01% 0,28% 3,75% 1,37% 3,91% 144 716 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 30,70% 3,78% 37,96% 9,30% 6,02% 0,28% 1,79% 3,47% 6,70% 756 001 Flats and townhouses 37,67% 0,28% 43,21% 6,22% 0,56% 0,03% 3,20% 0,54% 8,29% 498 341 Other buildings 61,72% 0,00% 3,47% 2,37% 6,36% 0,00% 1,11% 24,97% 0,00% 36 269 Additions and alterations 35,59% 7,06% 20,97% 17,24% 3,19% 2,35% 2,79% 0,57% 10,23% 365 164 34,87% 3,24% 35,80% 9,33% 3,78% 0,62% 2,53% 2,33% 7,50% TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 1 800 491 % Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Residential-14,09% 2,51% 0,00% 0,12% 0,40% 2,90% 0,00% 0,66% 16,15% 0,00% Rank by Y/Y Res Growth 4 8 9 6 3 2 5 7 1 Rank by Res Size 2 6 1 3 5 9 7 8 4 * April 2018 69,53% NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2018: M2 W estern Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest Total RSA Office and banking 16,34% 0,24% 76,32% 0,54% 0,16% 0,00% 3,53% 2,00% 0,87% 163 486 Shopping 50,19% 0,54% 34,42% 2,24% 1,71% 0,00% 2,82% 6,93% 1,15% 76 105 Industrial and warehouse 30,67% 10,47% 46,50% 7,33% 1,79% 0,15% 0,15% 1,36% 1,58% 357 539 Other buildings 54,89% 0,20% 29,24% 9,32% 0,36% 0,00% 0,55% 0,00% 5,45% 59 733 Additions and alterations 42,38% 7,00% 24,40% 10,29% 2,56% 3,09% 5,19% 0,48% 4,62% 132 330 33,38% 6,03% 46,50% 6,08% 1,47% 0,58% 1,98% 1,78% 2,19% TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2017 789 193

Total Rank SA 100,00% 7 100,00% 2 100,00% 3 100,00% 9 100,00% 5 100,00% 1,40%

Total Rank SA 100,00% 4 100,00% 6 100,00% 1 100,00% 8 100,00% 5 100,00%

% Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016 Non Residential -6,37% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 30,47% Rank by Non Res Size

29,56% 4 2

44,95% 3 2

36,28% 6 2

22,22% 9 2

14,53% 8 2

29,12% 5 2

25,58% 1 2

25,03% 2 2

11,37% 7 2

30,47%

GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2 589 2017 684

34,42%

4,09%

39,06%

8,34%

3,07%

0,61%

2,36%

2,16%

5,88%

100,00%

% Change Cum YTD 2017 vs 2016: Total Res & -14,82% Non Res 100,00% 100,00% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 4 5 100,00% Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 * April 2018

100,00% 8 1

52

100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 9 7 3 2 6 1 3 6 9 7 8 4

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

RES & NON RES BUILDING ACTIVITY BY PROVINCE: *YTD ACTUAL 2018 (* APRIL) RESIDENTIAL BC (M2)

*YTD ACTUAL 2018 (* APRIL)

1,902 MILLION M2

* BUILDING INVESTMENT (M2)

* RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (M2)

1,328 MILLION (M2) (69,79%)

* NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (M2)

0,575 MILLION (M2) (30,21%)

* Constant 2016 Prices

53

2

WESTERN CAPE 34,17%

4

EASTERN CAPE 2,98%

1

GAUTENG 35,56%

3

KWAZULU/NATAL 9,67%

6

MPUMALANGA 3,96%

9

NORTHERN CAPE 0,61%

8

FREE STATE 2,92%

7

LIMPOPO 1,88%

5

NORTH WEST 8,24%

NON RES BC (M2) WESTERN CAPE 27,18% EASTERN CAPE 1,82% GAUTENG 39,20% KWAZULU/NATAL 25,35% MPUMALANGA 1,22%

3 5 1 2 6

NORTHERN CAPE 0,84%

8

FREE STATE 0,50%

9

LIMPOPO 1,49%

7

NORTH WEST 2,40%

4

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 100,00%

TOTAL NON RESIFDENTIAL 100,00%

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

1,328 MILLION M2 (69,79%)

0,575 MILLION M2 (30,21%) © BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY BC BY SEGMENT & PROVINCE: *YTD FC 2018

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD FC* 2018: M2 Total RSA WC EC Gauteng KZN Mpum NC FS LIMP NW Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 144 716 55 671 2 567 64 421 2 798 5 796 399 5 427 1 983 5 654 Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 756 001 232 107 28 584 286 948 70 334 45 512 2 083 13 554 26 197 50 682 Flats and townhouses 498 341 187 729 1 388 215 329 31 017 2 769 146 15 929 2 706 41 328 Other buildings 36 269 22 386 0 1 260 858 2 307 0 402 9 056 0 Additions and alterations 365 164 129 960 25 778 76 580 62 965 11 652 8 578 10 201 2 093 37 357 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD 2017 1 800 491 627 853 58 317 644 538 167 972 68 036 11 206 45 513 42 035 135 021 % Change Cum YTD 2018 vs 2017: Residential-14,09% -1,30% -24,78% -31,17% -11,72% -0,01% 15,75% -1,67% -12,83% 62,25% Rank by Y/Y Res Growth 4 8 9 6 3 2 5 7 1 Rank by Res Size 2 6 1 3 5 9 7 8 4 Check 1 800 491 627 853 58 317 644 538 167 972 68 036 11 206 45 513 42 035 135 021 RES BC BY PROVINCE 34,87% 3,24% 35,80% 9,33% 3,78% 0,62% 2,53% 2,33% 7,50% * April 2018 NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: CUM YTD* 2018: M2 W estern Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern CapeFree State Limpopo Northwest Total RSA Office and banking 163 486 26 709 392 124 771 885 256 0 5 768 3 276 1 429 Shopping 76 105 38 195 413 26 197 1 705 1 305 0 2 145 5 271 874 Industrial and warehouse 357 539 109 656 37 441 166 265 26 221 6 401 521 535 4 852 5 647 Other buildings 59 733 32 787 118 17 466 5 567 214 0 326 0 3 255 Additions and alterations 132 330 56 079 9 257 32 287 13 616 3 394 4 083 6 872 632 6 110 TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD 2017 789 193 263 426 47 621 366 986 47 994 11 570 4 604 15 646 14 031 17 315 % Change Cum YTD 2018 vs 2017 Non Residential -6,37% 20,18% 94,59% -1,73% -69,92% -54,55% 12,90% 197,96% 98,63% -29,01% Rank by Y/Y Non Res Growth 4 3 6 9 8 5 1 2 7 Rank by Non Res Size 2 4 1 3 8 9 6 7 5 GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2 589 2018 684 891 279 105 938 1 011 524 215 966 79 606 15 810 61 159 56 066 152 336 % Change Cum YTD 2018 vs 2017: Total Res & -14,82% Non Res 4,20% 3,85% -22,78% -38,27% -14,86% 14,91% 18,67% 1,41% 41,56% Rank by Y/Y Total Growth 4 5 8 9 7 3 2 6 1 Rank by Total size RSA 2 5 1 3 6 9 7 8 4 789 193 263 426 47 621 309 730 42 810 10 020 4 604 15 646 14 031 17 315 Check Non Res Check Total 2 589 684 891 279 105 938 1 011 524 215 966 79 606 15 810 61 159 56 066 152 336 NON RES BC BY PROVINCE 33,38% 6,03% 46,50% 6,08% 1,47% 0,58% 1,98% 1,78% 2,19% 34,42% 4,09% 39,06% 8,34% 3,07% 0,61% 2,36% 2,16% 5,88% TOTAL RES & NON RES BC BY PROVINCE *April 2018

54

Total 144 716 756 001 498 341 36 269 365 164 1 800 491 -14,09%

8,04% 41,99% 27,68% 2,01% 20,28% 100,00%

Rank by Segment 7 2 3 9 5

1 800 491 100,00%

Total 163 486 76 105 357 539 59 733 132 330 789 193 -6,37%

20,72% 9,64% 45,30% 7,57% 16,77% 100,00%

segment 4 6 1 8 5

2 589 684 -14,82%

725 203 2 589 684 100,00% 100,00%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: CURRENT REALITY: BUILDINGS COMPLETED BY SEGMENT: CUM YTD FORECAST 2017

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 % Dwelling-house < 80 square metres -15 812 -2,28% Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 95 443 3,32% Flats and townhouses -37 204 -2,42% Other buildings -154 049 -67,21% Additions and alterations TOTAL RES

55

36 451 -75 170 -75 170

R*1000 178 707 1 642 470 28 580 -1 560 312

% 5,32% 7,98% 0,23% -71,18%

3,11% -1,16%

756 984 1 046 429

9,83% 2,25%

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): CUM *YTD FORECAST 2018 VS 2017 m2 % Office and banking -141 722 -22,64% Shopping -543 361 -56,15% Industrial and warehouse -43 644 -3,79% Other buildings -24 418 -8,99% Additions and alterations 24 845 6,25% TOTAL NON RES -728 300 -21,33% -728 300 -21,33% TOTAL RES & NON RES -803 471 -8,10% * April 2018 -803 471 -8,10%

R*1000 -1 116 631 -4 584 204 5 646 -124 965 281 589 -5 538 565 -5 538 565 -4 492 137 -4 492 137

% -19,25% -55,18% 0,08% -5,81% 7,21% -20,63% -20,63% -6,13% -6,13%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: CUM % CHANGE BC ACTUAL AND FORECAST BY SECTOR: JAN – DEC 2018: M2

Cum Y/Y % Change in Buildings Completed by Sector: Actual Jan - April 2018; and Forecast May Dec 2018: M2 (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: BC by Month and Sector; Chart 2962) 20%

YTD CUM ACTUAL

YTD CUM FORECAST

10%

Square Metres

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

Jan Residential building -1,71% Non-residential buildings -36,40% Additions and alterations -1,44% Total -11,79%

56

Feb -2,85% 12,38% 12,94% 3,44%

March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec -16,08% -17,04% -15,00% -13,89% -9,78% -6,78% -4,27% -1,97% -0,83% -2,09% -21,52% -8,94% -11,13% -24,06% -23,60% -20,98% -25,31% -27,20% -28,98% -24,97% -0,10% 2,10% 4,32% 0,81% 2,95% 2,36% -0,42% 2,59% 3,49% 3,90% -14,82% -11,88% -10,88% -14,39% -11,69% -9,30% -9,91% -9,06% -9,07% -8,10%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: CUM % CHANGE BC ACTUAL AND FC BY SECTOR: JAN – DEC 2018: R*1000

Cum Y/Y % Change in Buildings Completed by Sector: Jan - April 2018; and Forecast May- Dec 2018: R*1000 (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: BC by Month and Sector; Chart 2964) 20%

YTD CUM ACTUAL

YTD CUM FORECAST

R*1000 (Current Values)

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

Jan Residential building -0,08% Non-residential buildings -39,05% Additions and alterations 4,95% Total -10,85%

57

Feb 0,13% 9,94% 15,74% 5,17%

March -13,79% -26,46% 8,28% -13,71%

April -16,09% -15,19% 13,27% -11,24%

May -14,95% -14,72% 9,47% -10,97%

June -13,99% -26,28% 4,57% -14,53%

July -10,19% -22,79% 6,95% -11,00%

Aug -7,10% -20,64% 5,69% -8,81%

Sept -4,05% -27,55% 3,55% -10,03%

Oct -1,81% -28,73% 7,06% -8,94%

Nov 0,41% -30,48% 7,94% -8,53%

Dec 0,70% -25,32% 8,97% -6,13%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: % DIFFERENCE IN CUM YTD ACTUAL BC 2017 VS 2016

6,25%

7,21%

8,97%

m2

R'000

R'000

9,83%

3,11%

0,08%

0,70%

3,32% m2

0,23%

3,54% No

7,98%

5,32%

20%

R'000

% Difference in Cum Y/Y BC: *YTD FC 2018 vs 2017 by Segment by month (* April) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; Buildings Completed RSA, Chart 46(2))

-55,18% R'000

-25,32%

-6,16%

-5,81%

-8,99%

-3,79% -56,15%

-80%

-71,18%

-67,21%

-60%

m2

-40%

-19,25%

-2,42% m2

-22,64%

-3,20%

-2,28% m2

No

-3,11%

-20%

No

0%

Dwellings < 80m2

58

Dwellings > 80m2

Flats and TH

Other

Total Office & Shopping Ind&WH Banking

Other

Total

R'000

R'000

m2

R'000

R'000

m2

R'000

m2

R'000

m2

R'000

R'000

m2

R'000

R'000

-100%

A&A A&A Other Total A&A Dwellings Total

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

SENSE MAKING UPDATE: YEAR TO DATE 2018 (MARCH 2018) Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU REPORT OUTLINE SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION: SLIDES 1 – 10 SECTION 2: SLIDES 11 - 30 Analysis of trends in BPP: YTD Actual and YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 3: SLIDES 31 - 58 Analysis of trends in BC; *YTD Actual and *YTD Forecast for 2018 SECTION 4: SLIDES 59 - 69 Connecting the dots: Analysis of trends in GFCF Res, Non Res and Total Building; *YTD Actual and Forecast for 2018 - 2025

59

© BMI-BRSCU


THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM BMI-BRSCU FORECASTING FLOWCHARTT: 2017 - 2020

Pop Growth

CURRENT REALITY & STATE OF THE INDUSTRY YTD FC 2018 SCENARIOS/FORECAST

Demand GDP (Y/Y) + 0,8%

Supply Household Income Affordability Under Pressure

TOTAL GFCF (Y/Y) - 3,2% Animal Spirits Low

Confidence Negative

Investment Climate Negative

BUDGET 33%*GDP

PRIVATE Confidence Negative

GFCF

RES (Y/Y) - 11,8 GFCF NON RES (Y/Y) + 25,1%

PUBLIC

GFCF CONSTR (Y/Y) - 5,8% Animal Spirits Low

Investment Climate Negative

BPP + 8,1%

NBIP 34%*BC

GDP + 0,8%

BC - 11,2% NMIP (MA-BC) + 28,09%*BC

Mortgage Advances + 5,83%

CONTEXT >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> YTD CURRENT REALITY >>> © BMI-BRSCU

>> SCENARIOS/FORECAST

350 OO0 pa

Political Risk High

STATE OF THE INDUSTRY LOWER MIDDLE ROAD

Political Risk High

Housing need

STATE OF THE NATION PRETORIA WILL PROVIDE

1,7%


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: NBIP BPP & BC: 1993 - 2017 AND FORECAST: 2018-2020: m2

Total Residential: 1993 - *YTD FC 2025: BC, Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by month: m2 (* Dec) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 2944 (3)) Total Residential NBIP Total Residential BC Total Residential BPP Total Residential NBIP Total Residential BC Total Residential BPP 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total R esidential NBIP) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total R esidential BC) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total R esidential BPP)

1 800 000 1 600 000

Square Metres

1 400 000

Tme lag from peak of BPP to peak of BC = Approx 15 months NBIP = 45.52%*BC

1 200 000

NBIP = 56,26*BC

1 000 000

NBIP = 64,89%*BC

NBIP = 82.48%*BC

NBIP = 58.02%*BC

800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

0

These two periods (1993-2000 and 2011-2016) are very similar. Return to the New Normal?

61

© BMI-BRSCU


THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM

BMi

CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL RESIDENTIAL: 1993 - 2025

GFCF: Residential: 2000-2025: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2016 Values) (Source: SA Treasury; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 345) 40,0%

95,76

90,98

86,84

83,29

80,50

78,11

76,82

79,24

73,79

8,62%

108,17 30,0%

20,0%

6,06%6,51% 4,76%5,26% 3,47%4,26%

3,07% -3,05% 1,67% -1,15%

4,16%2,76%

-4,51% 1,47%

10,0%

0,0%

Y/Y Percentage Change

-5,50% -8,16%

71,81

-1,84%

68,94

68,98

71,15

3,41%

67,94

4,01%

70,00

48,89

49,80

48,16

52,21

-10,0%

60,00

50,00

8,20%

6,79%

80,00

80,16

90,00

87,10

92,16

96,49

19,0%

89,18

R Million (Constant 2016 Values)

100,35

32,12% 29,28%

110,00

100,00

BUDGET FORECAST (SA Treasury Jan 2018 for 2016 - 2020)

101,56

120,00

-18,31% -20,0%

-30,0%

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

40,00

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: TOTAL NON RES NBIP: m2: 2000-2016 AND FORECAST: 2017-2020

Total Non Res: 2000 - *YTD FC 2020: BC, Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by Month: m2 (* April 2018) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 2946(3))

600 000

NBIP Total Non R esidential BC Total Non Residential

550 000

Tme lag from peak of BPP to peak of BC = Approx 15 months

BPP Total Non Residential

500 000

12 per. Mov. Avg. (NBIP Total Non Residential)

NBIP = 60.10%*BC

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC Total Non Residential)

450 000

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BPP Total Non Residential) NBIP =

400 000

NBIP = 42.83%*BC

350NBIP 000 = 76.29%*BC

Square Metres

NBIP = 65,02%*BC

99.48%*BC

NBIP = 59.85%*BC

300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000

63

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

0

© BMI-BRSCU


THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM

BMi

CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL: 1993 - 2025

GFCF: Non Residential: 2000-2025: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2016 Values) (Source: SA Treasury; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 347)

120,00

101,89

110,00

-7,67%

38,91

36,36

39,38

50,88

45,71

50,00

42,89

60,00

40,00

69,99

66,47

2,83%

67,78

70,46

68,52

3,0%

81,04

78,62

77,32

77,26

3,30%

96,11

15,0%

10,0%

6,46% 6,01% 5,22% 4,72% 4,04% 5,0% 3,47% 3,07%

1,68% 0,69%

58,32

70,00

5,28%

72,30

6,58%

80,00

79,38

7,02%

6,98%

78,84

9,05%

83,85

90,00

87,23

11,30% 10,22%

36,81

R Million (Constant 2016 Values)

100,00

91,35

14,62%

0,08% 0,0%

-1,92%

Y/Y Percentage Change

17,49%

108,47

20,0%

-2,67% -3,80% -5,0%

BUDGET FORECAST (SA Treasury Jan 2018 for 2016 - 2020)

30,00

-10,0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

CURRENT REALITY: TOTAL NBIP: M2: 1993-2016 AND FORECAST: 2017-2020

Total Building: BC: 2000 - *YTD FC 2020: Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by Month: m2 (* April ) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 2948 (3)) 2 200 000 Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC)

2 000 000

Tme lag from peak of BPP to peak of BC = Approx 15 months

Total Building BC Total Building BPP

1 800 000

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC))

1 600 000

NBIP = 57,14%*BC

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building BC)

NBIP = 65,02%*BC

Square Metres

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building BPP)

NBIP = 44.02%*BC

1 400 000

NBIP = 59.43%*BC 1 200 000

NBIP = 81.33%*BC 1 000 000

NBIP = 65.98%*BC 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

0

These two periods (1993-2000 and 2011-2016) are very similar. Return to the New Normal?

65

© BMI-BRSCU


THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC F5RUM

BMi

CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: 1993 - 2020

GFCF: Total Building: 2000-2025: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2016 Value) (Source: SA Treasury; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 349) 25,00%

22,77%

111,87

140,00

80,00

3,35%3,73%

174,08

167,14

161,54

156,73

154,15

156,50

159,54

152,63

144,11

138,93

157,56

160,68

1,27%

5,92%

203,45

10,00%

6,03%6,48% 5,24% 4,74% 4,15% 5,00% 3,07%3,47% 1,67% 0,00%

-1,50% -1,90%

-1,94%

20,00%

15,00%

-3,25%

91,12

85,25

100,00

89,19

120,00

134,42

3,00%

138,93

134,89

4,96%

147,36

9,25% 7,67%

6,89%

160,00

158,67

180,00

84,97

R Million (Constant 2016 Values)

200,00

182,33

BUDGET FORECAST (SA Treasury Jan 2018 for 2016 - 2020)

191,88

20,58% 220,00

216,64

240,00

-5,00%

-4,42% -10,00%

-11,82%

60,00

-15,00% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: PROGNOSIS: BPP AND BC; DOMESTIC CEMENT & LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES 2015 - 2018

Apr-18 BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value) 2015 vs 2014 Residential BPP (m2) 1,81% Residential BPP (R) 7,69% Non Residential BPP (m2) -6,78% Non Residential BPP (R) -0,48% Total BPP (m2) Total BPP (R) Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (m2)

-0,92% 4,98% -0,84%

2016 vs 2015 0,30% 7,58% 4,27% 11,23% 1,48% 8,73% 1,50%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (R) 5,12% 8,74% PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: BUILDINGS COMPLETED Apr-18 2016 vs BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (m2 and value) 2015 vs 2014 2015 165,12% -58,62% Residential BC (m2) Residential BC (R) 34,02% -7,51% 110,83% -56,25% Non Residential BC (m2) 15,15% -11,10% Non Residential BC (R) 146,78% -57,94% Total BC (m2) Total BC (R) 27,32% -8,67% Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) 144,52% -77,48% Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R) 17,19% -8,64%

67

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act 2015 2016 2017 YTD vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST -4,98% 3,72% 0,30% 0,84% 1,81% -0,43% 8,05% 7,58% -0,43% 7,69% -9,02% 7,36% 4,27% -9,02% -6,78% -2,50% 16,29% 11,23% -2,50% -0,48%

2018 YTD FORECAST -0,25% 0,51% 0,96% 1,49%

-6,22% -1,10% -8,73%

4,76% 10,48% 4,77%

-0,92% 4,98% -0,84%

1,48% 8,73% 1,50%

-2,31% -1,10% -8,33%

0,11% 0,82% 0,02%

-1,90%

10,54%

5,12%

8,74%

-1,90%

3,65%

2017 YTD Act 2018 YTD Act FC 2015 2016 2017 vs 2016 YTD vs 2017 YTD Act Act FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST 0,25% -14,09% -58,62% 0,25% 165,12% 9,92% -11,18% -7,51% 9,92% 34,02% 22,67% -6,37% -56,25% 22,67% 110,83% 39,91% -11,38% -11,10% 39,91% 15,15% 6,98% -11,88% -57,94% 6,98% 146,78% 19,29% -11,24% -8,67% 19,29% 27,32% 6,86% -15,22% 144,52% -57,62% 6,86% 21,09% -11,27% 27,89% -9,34% 21,09%

2018 FORECAST -1,16% 2,25% -21,33% -20,63% -8,10% -6,13% -7,57% -5,50%

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

SENSEMAKING UPDATE: PROGNOSIS: BPP AND BC; DOMESTIC CEMENT & LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES 2015 – FC 2018

BPP/BC AND NBIP RES NON RES AND TOTAL (M2 AND VALUE) 2014 vs 2013 Residential BPP/BC (m2) 1,84 Non Residential BPP/BC (m2) 1,68 Total BPP/BC (m2) 1,78 Residential BPP/BC (R) 1,90 Non Residential BPP/BC (R) 1,71 Total BPP/BC (R) 1,83 Residential Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP) (m2) Residential Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP) (R) Non Residential Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP) (m2) Non Residential Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP) (R) Total Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP) (m2) Total Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP) (R)

2015 vs 2014 0,71 0,74 0,72 1,53 1,48 1,51 -29,46% 52,52% -25,92% 48,01% -28,44% 51,07%

FC 2016 FC 2017 2016 YTD Act 2017 YTD FC FC 2015 vs 2015 YTD vs 2016 YTD FORECASTFORECAST FORECAST Act Act 1,80 1,64 1,71 1,62 1,69 1,68 1,77 1,31 1,77 1,65 1,73 1,51 1,76 1,58 1,77 1,61 1,81 1,65 1,85 1,29 1,77 1,60 1,80 1,49 61,11% 62,06% 70,98% 62,06% 77,42% 60,71% 77,42% 60,71% 76,54% 30,93% 76,54% 30,93% 85,21% 29,06% 85,21% 29,06% 65,74% 51,35% 72,65% 51,35% 79,85% 49,12% 79,85% 49,12%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: CEMENT SALES

2016 YTD Act 2017 YTD Act 2015 vs vs 2015 YTD vs 2016 YTD 2014 vs 2013 2014 Act Act Apr-18 DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (Tonnes) -0,82% 7,65% -1,50% -1,50% 2016 YTD Act 2017 YTD FC PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES 2015 vs vs 2015 YTD vs 2016 YTD 2014 Act Act May-18 2014 vs 2013 LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (m3) 9,35% 6,95% -3,03% -6,87% PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST BY INDICATOR 2016 YTD Act 2017 YTD FC 2015 vs vs 2015 YTD vs 2016 YTD 2014 vs 2013 May-18 2014 Act Act OVERALL AVERAGE (m2) 38,05% -15,35% -1,60% -4,71% OVERALL AVERAGE (R) 7,83% -0,58% 5,43% -3,47% TOTAL INV IN BUILDING -8,01% 5,94% 15,87% 0,45% TOTAL INV IN CONSTRUCTION 5,45% 6,38% 2,57% -16,10% TOTAL INV IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION 0,88% 6,17% 8,93% -7,69% Source: ©BMI-BRSCU

68

FC 2018 FORECAST 1,65 1,78 1,69 1,65 1,79 1,70 65,34% 65,50% 78,40% 78,65% 69,15% 69,59%

YTD 'FC 2017 FC 2015 7,65%

FC 2016 -1,50%

FC 2017 -1,50%

FC 2018 1,67%

FC 2015 6,95%

FC 2016 -3,03%

FC 2017 -5,71%

FC 2018 1,79%

FC 2015 39,57% 11,62% 3,44% 6,38% 6,17%

FC 2016 -15,16% -1,32% 22,32% 2,57% 8,93%

FC 2017 -2,17% -0,31% -1,30% -16,10% -7,69%

FC 2018 -1,02% -1,99% 2,24% -0,13% 1,21%

© BMI-BRSCU


SENSEMAKING UPDATE:

BMi

PROGNOSIS: GDP, GFCF, GFCF RES GFCF NON-RES 2015- 2025

LONGTERM FORECAST SUMMARY: GDP AND GFCF: 2015 - 2025 CONSTANT 2016 VALUE GDP GFCF Total GFCF Y/Y % Value Y/Y % Growth R Billion Growth

LONGTERM FORECAST SUMMARY: GFCF RES, NON RES AND CONST: 2015 2025 CONSTANT 2016 VALUE GFCF GFCF GFCF Bldng GFCF TOTAL GFCF TOTAL CONSTR TOTAL BLDNG NON RES Constr + Constr BUILDING R BLDNG Y/Y % + CONSTR Y/Y Y/Y % Total Value Total Value Billion Y/Y % Growth Growth % Growth Growth R Billion R Billion

Year

*2015

R 4 315

1,30%

R 884

2,33%

20,50%

*2015

R 80,16

8,62%

R 79,38

0,69%

R 160

4,52%

R 247,73

6,38%

R 407,27

5,65%

*2016 *2017 *2018 *2019 *2020 **2021 **2022 **2023 **2024 **2025

R 4 339 R 4 395 R 4 461 R 4 542 R 4 637 R 4 753 R 4 886 R 5 032 R 5 204 R 5 396

0,60% 1,30% 1,50% 1,80% 2,10% 2,50% 2,80% 3,00% 3,40% 3,70%

R 849 R 851 R 868 R 896 R 929 R 971 R 1 020 R 1 076 R 1 144 R 1 221

-4,02% 0,30% 1,90% 3,30% 3,70% 4,50% 5,00% 5,50% 6,30% 6,75%

19,57% 19,37% 19,45% 19,73% 20,04% 20,44% 20,87% 21,38% 21,98% 22,63%

*2016 *2017 *2018 **2019 **2020 **2021 **2022 **2023 **2024 **2025

R 79,24 R 76,82 R 78,11 R 80,50 R 83,29 R 86,84 R 90,98 R 95,76 R 101,56 R 108,17

-1,15% -3,05% 1,67% 3,07% 3,47% 4,26% 4,76% 5,26% 6,06% 6,51%

R 77,26 R 77,32 R 78,62 R 81,04 R 83,85 R 87,23 R 91,35 R 96,11 R 101,89 R 108,47

-2,67% 0,08% 1,68% 3,07% 3,47% 4,04% 4,72% 5,22% 6,01% 6,46%

R 157 R 154 R 157 R 162 R 167 R 174 R 182 R 192 R 203 R 217

-1,90% -1,50% 1,67% 3,07% 3,47% 4,15% 4,74% 5,24% 6,03% 6,48%

R 247,21 R 228,04 R 231,68 R 238,61 R 246,69 R 236,46 R 241,18 R 247,21 R 255,87 R 268,66

-0,21% -7,76% 1,60% 2,99% 3,39% -4,15% 2,00% 2,50% 3,50% 5,00%

R 403,72 R 382,19 R 388,40 R 400,14 R 413,83 R 410,53 R 423,51 R 439,09 R 459,32 R 485,31

-0,87% -5,33% 1,63% 3,02% 3,42% -0,80% 3,16% 3,68% 4,61% 5,66%

GFCF/GDP %

Year

GFCF Res GFCF RES Value Y/Y % R Billion Growth

GFCF Non Res Value R Billion

GDP Value R Billion

* Growth 2015 - 2020 by Treasury ** Growth 2021-2025 by BMI-BRSCU

69

© BMI-BRSCU


BMi

BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SENSEMAKING UPDATE: www.strategicforum.co.za

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM A place of assembly for strategic conversations

Sense making Update: Year To Date 2018 (April) 70

Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis, Trading as BMI-BRSCU

© BMI-BRSCU

Sense-making Update YTD 2018 (April)  
Sense-making Update YTD 2018 (April)