Paul Ebeling Gold, Silver and Crude Oil Report Gold, Silver and Oil Report 7 April 2011
Red's Mid-Week Gold, Silver and Crude Oil Report Charts by Omega Research
7 April 2011 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
SPDR Gold Trust (ETF), NYSE:GLD, iShares Silver Trust (ETF), NYSE:SLV, United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) The Overall Fundamentals Gold and Silver Gold futures on the COMEX Division of the New York Merc continued its rally Wednesday, as worries over worldwide inflation prompted players to buy more Gold to store their wealth. A weaker USD gave additional boost. The most active Gold contract for June delivery rose 6.00, or 0.4%, to 1,458.5 oz. Market analysts said that worries over inflation intensified after the US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said that inflation must be watched "extremely closely." The consecutive raises in the Crude Oil prices also helped fuel the Gold market. May Crude Oil futures added 49c Wednesday in New York, tapping 108.83 bbl the highest price in 2.5 yrs. Players said that the weakening USD against Euro helped raise Dollar-priced Gold market. The USD declined as much as 0.9% against the Euro on speculation that the European Central Bank will raise its Key interest rate this week. Silver for May delivery also increased 20.4c , or 0.52%, to 39.387 oz. and July Platinum added 1.0 or 0.06%, to finish at 1,797.8.
Crude Oil US Crude Oil price rose Wednesday and hit a new high since September 2008 on the Middle East tension and a weaker USD, brushing aside increased US domestic Crude inventories reported last week. In Libya, battles between Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's forces and the rebels continue, in Bahrain, firms have fired hundreds of mostly Shi'ite Muslim workers who went on strike to support pro-democracy protesters. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% Thursday for the 1st time since the financial crisis hit. The expectation pushed the euro to a 14 mo. high but pulled the Dollar Index lower. A weaker "Greenback" usually raises Crude Oil prices.
On the Supply Side: members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) say they have no intention to raise output. OPEC said Wednesday at a conference in Paris they could do little to control prices driven by speculators betting on " worst case scenarios" and said the market has all the Crude Oil it needs. Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration reported that Crude Oil inventories increased 2M bbls in the week ended April 1. It was the 9th rise in the last 10 weeks, showing that the US Crude Oil supply was not affected by the MENA region unrest. This pressured the market in the earlier trading session. Light, Sweet Crude for May delivery added 53c to settle at 108.47 bbl on the New York Merc. In London, Brent Light Crude for May delivery also rose and last traded above 122 bbl.
The Overall Technicals Comex Gold (GC) Gold's break of 1448.6 confirms resumption of long term up-trend as it reached a new record high of 1462.1 Wednesday. Intra-day bias is back to the Northside for 61.8% projection of 1155.6 to 1432.5 from 1309.1 at 1480.2 next. On the Downside: a clear break below 1440.3, the minor support, will turn the bias back to Neutral and bring on consolidations. My outlook is Bullish as long as 1410.1, Key support, holds and then I expect the up- trend to resume. The Big Picture: Gold is comfortably inside the long term rising channel from 681, the Y 2008 low, and there is no clear sign of reversal yet. The weekly MACD is supported by its trend line and Gold is regaining upside momentum. That being the case I am Bullish as long as 1309.1,the Key support, holds and expect the current up trend to target 1500 psych mark next, but a break of 1309.1 will indicate medium term Topping and should bring on a pull back to 1004.5/1227.5 support Zone. Stay tuned...
Comex Silver (SI) Silver's rally extended to as high as 39.71 on Wednesday, and intra-day bias remains on the Northside for 100% projection of 17.735 to 31.275 from 26.3 at 39.84, which is close to 40 psych mark. A clear break there will target 161.8% projection at 48.208 next. On the Downside: a clear break below 37.94, the minor support, will indicate that a temporary Top is formed, and bring consolidations first. The Big Picture: the long term up-trend in Silver is in progress, and is regaining its momentum with the weekly MACD back above its Signal line. This rally will likely extend further towards 261.8% projection at 43.71. In any case, a clear break of 33.565, the Key support, is needed to be the 1st signal of a reversal. Barring that my medium term outlook is Bullish Silver. Stay tuned...
Nymex Crude Oil (CL) Intra-day bias in Crude Oil remains Neutral in here, and some consolidations could still be seen. But any downside retreat is expected to be contained above 102.70, the Key support, and bring another rise to 61.8% projection of 83.85 to 106.95 from 96.22 at 110.49 next. A clear break there will target 100% projection of 64.23 to 92.58 from 83.85 at 112.20. But, a break of 102.70 will indicate that a short term Top is formed and turn focus back to 96.22 instead. The Big Picture: the medium term rebound from 33.2 is in progress and a Stronger rise should be seen towards 100% projection of 33.2 to 83.95 from 64.23 at 114.98. But, there is no change in my POV that the rally is the 2nd wave of the consolidation pattern from that started at 147.27, the Y 2008 high. That said, I will start to look for reversal signal again above 114.98 projection level. A clear break of 83.85, the Key support, is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Barring that my outlook is Bullish Crude Oil. Stay tunedG
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. aka The Red Roadmaster firstname.lastname@example.org Suite 53 Athenee Tower 63 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 THAILAND Tel: +66 2 126 8045 Fax: +66 2 126 8080 Mobile: +66 8 5997 0635 Email : email@example.com New York 347 5th Avenue, Suite 1402-508 Ny, NY 10016 Tel: +1 646-403-9881 Fax: +1 646-403-8014 Singapore 3 Raffles Place #07-01 Bharat Building Singapore 048617 Tel: +65 6329 6408 Fax: +65 6329 9699 www.ebeling-heffernan.com www.livetradingnews.com www.paul-ebeling.com www.redroadmaster.com Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmasterâ€™s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world. Ebeling has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels. Paul Ebeling is a CO-Founder of Ebeling Heffernan Asiaâ€™s fastest growing Advisory Firm and is a Senior Dark Pool FX, Equity and Commodity Analyst at Heffernan Capital Management. www.heffcap.com
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