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The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Re-cap + Stock Talk ™

2 December 2009

Date Line: Hong Kong (SAR) China

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Red’s Bull Alert:

US stocks rallied strong on Tuesday; the DJIA tapped 10,500+ , as Gold closed at another record high: US$1200.20 oz.

DJIA hits 14-month high Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the session ending 2 December 2009 The DJIA climbed to its highest close in 14 months Tuesday as the sinking USD boosted natural resource companies' shares and economic data reinforced hopes for a sustainable economic recovery. The DJIA surged 126.74 pts, or 1.23%, to close at 10,471.58, the S&P 500 gained 13.23 pts, or 1.21%, to close at 1,108.86, and the NAS tallied up + 31.21 pts, or 1.46%, to end the session at 2,175.81. US Crude Oil futures gained US$1.09 to settle at US$78.37 bbl and shares of Exxon Mobil Corp gained 1.3% to US$76.04. The pullback in the "Greenback" garnered broad interest in both equities and commodities. That action proved beneficial for materials stocks and energy stocks, which finished with respective gains of 1.6% and 1.4%. Gold prices climbed to a new record high near US$1204 oz before they closed pit trade with a 1.5% gain at US$1200.20 oz. Retailers rebounded to a 1.8% gain after a slip in the previous session. Better-than-expected earnings and a strong revenue forecast from Guess (GES 41.82, +4.77) helped the company's shares outperform the rest of the pack and log their best single-session percentage gain since March. Construction spending for October was flat month-over-month. It was expected to decline 0.5%. The previous month's 0.8% increase was completely reversed to reflect a 1.6% decline.


Pending home sales for October made a month-over-month jump of 3.7%, which is better than the 1.0% decline that many had expected. The increase for October wasn't quite as strong as the 6.0% increase that was registered in September. Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+1.8%), Telecom (+1.7%), Materials (+1.6%), Energy (+1.4%), Industrials (+1.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.3%), Consumer Staples (+1.3%), Health Care (+1.3%), Tech (+1.3%), Financials (+0.1%) Declining Sectors: (None) Volume and Breadth: Trade was below average on the NYSE, with 1.13b/shrs changing hands, under last year's estimated daily average of 1.49B/shrs, and on the NAS, about 2.19B/shrs traded, below last year's daily average of 2.28B/shrs. Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a ratio of 4 to 1, and on the NAS, about 9 stocks rose for every 4 that fell.

Stocks to Watch Today American International Group, Inc. (AIG), The Walt Disney Company (DIS), IBM (IBM), and PepsiCo,

Inc. (PEP).

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American International Group, Inc. (AIG) Up-date 19

Last Look: November 4,

2009 December 2, 2009

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst Today let’s have a look at American International Group, Inc. (AIG), one of the World's largest insurance firms, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesday’s (December 1, 2009) market action, are Neutral; in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bearish, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Neutral.

**Chart by:

Latest News and Opinion: New York Fed Takes Stakes in 2 A.I.G. Insurance Units


Tuesday’s Market Action Close 30.84

+ 2.44

Volume 42,500,200/shrs

There is a Hammer on November 24 and no Gaps open up on the chart, the near term resistance is 31.94, support is 28.54, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 36.41. This is American International Group, Inc. (AIG): the Company through its subsidiaries provides insurance and financial services in the United States and internationally. It operates in four segments: General Insurance, Life Insurance and Retirement Services, Financial Services, and Asset Management. The General Insurance segment underwrites various business insurance products, including large commercial or industrial property insurance, excess liability, inland marine, environmental, workers compensation, and excess and umbrella coverage’s. This segment also offers various specialized forms of insurance, such as aviation, accident and health, equipment breakdown, directors and officers liability, difference-in-conditions, kidnap-ransom, export credit and political risk, and professional errors and omissions coverage’s. In addition, it provides property and casualty reinsurance products to insurers; automobile insurance products; residential mortgage guaranty insurance products; and second-lien and private student loan guaranty insurance products. The Life Insurance and Retirement Services segment offers individual and group life, payout annuities, endowment, and accident and health policies, as well as retirement savings products consisting of fixed and variable annuities. The Financial Services segment provides aircraft and equipment leasing, capital market transactions, consumer finance, and insurance premium financing. The Asset Management segment operations comprise investment-related services and investment products, including institutional and retail asset management, broker-dealer services, and spread-based investment products. The company was founded in 1967 and is based in New York, New York.

Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by demographics and commercial transactions. The profitability of individual companies depends on effective marketing and on the ability to accurately estimate future payments. Large companies have big economies of scale in administration and in access to capital. Small companies can compete successfully by specializing in particular products or industries. Insurance Carriers Industry Forecast The output of US insurance, which is an indicator for insurance carriers, is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 1 % between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008

American International Group, Inc. (HQ) Chairman of AIG Investments and Chief Exec. of AIG Investments Win Jay Neuger CFA 70 Pine Street New York, NY 10270 United States Phone: 212-770-3099 Fax: 212-425-3499

AIG Subsidiaries and Affiliates

21st Century Insurance Company AIG American General Life Companies AIG Annuity Insurance Company


The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Up-date 8

Last Look: November 10, 2009

December 2, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst Today let’s look at The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Mickey’s World, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesday’s (December 1, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Bullish, midterm Bullish, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Very Bearish


Latest News and Opinion: GE, Comcast Complete Deal Over NBC Universal


Tuesday’s Market Action

Close 30.73

+ .51

Volume 9,317,400/shrs

There is a Bearish Harami on November 30, and six Gaps open up between July 15, and December 1, 2009 at 23.21/30.44, support is 30.42, the near term resistance 30.93, and the 50 day exponential moving average at 29.07. This is The Walt Disney Company (DIS): The King of the Magic Kingdom is a mouse, we all know him as Mickey. The Walt Disney Company is the world's #2 media conglomerate, # 1 is Time Warner (TWX) with assets encompassing movies, music, publishing, television, and theme parks. Disney’s TV holdings include the ABC TV network + 10 broadcast stations, and a portfolio of cable networks including ABC Family, A&E Television Networks (37%-owned), and ESPN (80%). Walt Disney Studios produces films through imprints; Walt Disney Pictures, Touchstone, Pixar, and Miramax. In addition, Walt Disney Parks and Resorts is one of the top theme park operators in the world, we all know them as Walt Disney World and Disneyland Resorts. Disney competitors are primarily in the Film & Video industry, DIS also competes in the Internet Content Providers, Music, and Publishing sectors, the competition is; CBS Corp, News Corp, and Time Warner. The Competitive Landscape In the motion picture production and distribution sector consumer spending drives demand. The profitability of individual companies depends on creativity, marketing, and distribution. Large companies have the advantages of long term contracts with key actors and directors, a permanent staff of technical employees, and wide distribution networks. Small companies compete by creating marketable movies, often for niche audiences, on low budgets. Although production work is labor-intensive, the value of the product results in high average annual industry revenue of US$300,000 per employee. The Walt Disney Company (HQ) Robert A. Iger, President, CEO, and Director 500 S. Buena Vista St. Burbank, CA 91521-9722 United States Phone: 818-560-1000 Fax: 818-560-1930


International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Up-date 10 Last Look: October 23, 2009 December 2, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst Today let’s look at “Big Blue”, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), the World’s #1 provider of computer products and computer services, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesday’s (December 1, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Very Bullish, and long term Very Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Neutral

**Chart by:


Latest News and Opinion: FACTBOX-A modern trader's clock: Micro, nano and picoseconds Tuesday’s Market Action

Close 127,94

+ 1.59

Volume 6,578,500/shrs

There a Homing Pigeon on November 25, and three Gaps open up between July 15 and December 1, 2009 at 103.62/12.85, the near term resistance is 128.49, support at 126.85, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 124.10. This is IBM (IBM): “Big Blue” is the world's top provider of computer products and services. IBM is a leader in every market in which it competes, the company makes mainframes and servers, storage systems, and peripherals. Though perhaps still best known for its hardware, IBM's growing services business now accounts for more than half of its sales. Its IT services arm is the largest in the world and the company is also one of the largest providers of software, ranking #2, behind Microsoft, and semiconductors. The Competitive Landscape Demand for IT services is driven by rapid technological advances, but spending for these expensive products depends on the health of the US economy. The profitability of companies in the industry depends on maintaining technical expertise and on good marketing. Small companies can compete effectively by specializing in market niches or by partnering with larger companies that want to offer a broad array of services. Only the large companies can provide outsourcing services to big corporate customers. Average annual revenue per employee is close to US$200,000. Information Technology Industry Forecast The output of US computer and data processing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 6.1% between 2008 and 2013. IBM (HQ) Chairman, President, and CEO Samuel J. Palmisano New Orchard Rd. Armonk, NY 10504 United States Phone: 914-499-1900 Toll Free: 800-426-4968 IBM Subsidiaries Cognos ULC IBM Australia Limited IBM Canada Ltd.


PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) Up-date 6

Last Look: October 8, 2009

December 2, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst Today let’s look at PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP), the World's #2 carbonated soft drink maker, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesday’s (December 1, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish. The Recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bearish.

**Chart by:

Latest News and Opinion: Fast and Fizzy Ways to Make Money in China Tuesday’s Market Action

Close 63.87

+ 1.65

Volume 6,887,400/shr


There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on November 30, 2009 and there are no Gaps open up or down on the Chart, the near term resistance is NIL, support at 63.63 and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 61.40. This is PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP): The PepsiCo vs. KO challenge never ends for the world's #2 carbonated soft-drink maker. Its soft drinks include Pepsi, Mountain Dew, and Slice. Cola is not the company's only beverage: Pepsi sells Tropicana orange juice brands, Gatorade sports drink, and Aquafina water. The company also owns Frito-Lay, the world's #1 snack maker with offerings such as corn chips (Doritos, Fritos) and potato chips (Lay's, Ruffles). Its Quaker Foods division offers breakfast cereals (Life), pasta (Pasta Roni), rice (Rice-A-Roni), and side dishes (Near East). A true global giant, Pepsi's products are available in some 200 countries.

The Competitive Landscape Demand for non-alcoholic beverages is driven by consumer tastes and demographics. The profitability of individual companies depends on effective marketing. Large manufacturers have economies of scale in production and distribution, with average annual revenue per production worker close to US$1MM. Small companies can compete by producing new products, catering to local tastes, or selling at lower prices. Beverage Manufacture and Bottling Industry Forecast

The output of US soft drinks and ice manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4.9% between 2008 and 2013. PepsiCo, Inc. (HQ) Chairman and CEO Indra K. Nooyi 700 Anderson Hill Rd. Purchase, NY 10577-1444 United States ( Phone: 914-253-2000 Fax: 914-253-2070

PepsiCo Subsidiaries Frito-Lay North America The Gatorade Company Naked Juice Company

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