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Red Roadmaster

STOCK TALK


Red Roadmaster


19th June, 2009

Contact Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. redroadmaster@aol.com

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highlyregarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world. Ebeling has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/ Support Levels.


The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Recap

June 23, 2009 Alert: The Red Roadmaster looks at ChemGenex Pharmaceuticals (CXSP), Chesapeake Energy (CHK) for the 1st time.

The Recap of Monday’s US Stock Market Action US Stocks suffered their worst one day loss in two months on a broad-based selloff. The S&P 500 slid back into the Red on the year yesterday, while the leading NAS is in the Green by 12 % on the year as shares of some sensitive sectors; financials, energy and materials led the S&P 500's decline. The DJIA shed 200.72 pts (2.35%) to close at 8,339.01, the S&P 500 was off 28.19 pts (3.06%) to close at 893.04, the NAS posted a minus 61.28 pts (3.35%) closing at 1,766.19, and the Russell 2000 index closed minus 19.91 pts (3.9%) to close at 492.81 on the day. The laggard DJIA has fallen for five of the last six trading days and is in the Red for June. The leading S&P financial index .GSPF fell 6.2%, the energy sector dropped 4.6%. After yesterday's plunge + the 3% slide last week, the DJIA is now off 5% year to date. Benchmark Crude Oil for August delivery fell US$2.52 to settle at US$67.50 bbl on the NYME, Gold prices closed down on the day, and the US$ was mostly higher against other major currencies. Breadth and Volume: about six stocks fell for every one stock that rose on the NYSE, where volume came to 1.4B/shrs, down from 2.1 B/shrs last Friday when trading was heavy because of expiration of options contracts. Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 0.4%, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.6% Germany's DAX index fell 3%, and France's CAC-40 fell 3%. Stocks to Watch Today Bank of America (BAC), Couer D Alene Mines Corp. (CDE), ChemGenex Pharmaceuticals (CXSP), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Dendreon Corp. (DNDN), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), and VocalTec Communications, Ltd. (VOCL).


Bank of America (BAC) Up-date 51 June 22, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Bank of America (BAC), the USA’s big brand bank, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (June 22, 2009) market action are, Bullish, in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: BofA Loses 9.7% http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124570868880838657.html?ru=yahoo#mod=yahoo_hs Monday Market Action Close

11.94

- 1.28

Volume 431,896,400/shrs


There is one Gaps open up on Mar 110, 2009 at 3.77/4.20, the near term resistance is 12.44, support at 11.86, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 11.10. This is Bank of America (BAC): This Company has operations in 32 states, the District of Colombia and 44 foreign countries. In the US it has more than 6,000 retail banking centers and 18,500 ATM’s. Two key areas of business for this company are Global Consumer and Small Business Banking. Global Corporate and Investment Banking provide comprehensive financial solutions to their institutional clients. Global Wealth and Investment Management offers banking and investment services to more than 3 million individual and institutional customers World Wide. Recent Major developments have afforded the opportunity to purchase various marquee businesses such as Countrywide Financial, LaSalle Bank, U.S. Trust Corp, MBNA, and FleetBoston. Acquiring of these businesses will provide BAC a strong presence in their mutually respective core markets. Competitive Landscape Leveraged loans, collateralized debt obligations and subprime-related assets will continue to be a source of uncertainty for the entire sector. Government intervention has played a role in strengthening bank balance sheets and consumer confidence. The government recently released a framework for the purchase of the aforementioned toxic assets. The industry is heavily tied to the extension of credit to credit worthy consumers. As deterioration in consumer based businesses continues in the US coupled with tighter lending standards, banks will find it difficult to identify lucrative investment opportunities. Bank of America (HQ) Chairman and Chief Director: Walter E Massey 100 North Tryon St. 18th Fl Charlotte, NC 28255 United States Phone: 704-386-5681 Fax: 704-356-6699 http://www.BankofAmerica.com


ChemGenex Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CXSP) June 23, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at ChemGenex Pharmaceuticals (CXSP), a pharmaceutical development company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (June 22, 2009) market action, are Bullish,: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bullish,.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Findings Suggest Omacetaxine Offers an Important Breakthrough in the Treatment of CML Patients with the T315I Resistance Mutation http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pivotal-Study-Results-bw-393202721.html?x=0&.v=3 Monday’s Market Action Close 24.00

+ 7.97

Volume 7,100/shrs


There is an Inverted Hammer on June 19, and four Gaps open up between Apr 20 and June 22, 2009 at 11.50/16.37, the near term resistance is 24.50, support at 23.97, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 14.28. This is ChemGenex Pharmaceuticals (CXSP): This is a pharmaceutical development company dedicated to improving the lives of patients by developing personalized oncology medicines. ChemGenex harnesses the power of genomics both to discover novel targets and drug compounds, and in clinical trials to develop more individualized treatment outcomes. ChemGenex’s lead compound, omacetaxine mepesuccinate, is currently in phase 2/3 clinical trials for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). ChemGenex has a second anticancer compound, amonafide dihydrochloride (QuinamedŽ), which is in phase 2 clinical development for various solid cancers, and a portfolio of assets in pre-clinical development. ChemGenex currently trades on the Australian Stock Exchange under the symbol "CXS" and on NAS under the symbol "CXSP". Competitive Landscape Demand for pharmaceutical manufacture is driven by the desire to cure illness and disease. The profitability of individual companies depends on their ability to discover and market new drugs. Large companies benefit from their economies of scale in research, manufacturing, and marketing. Small companies can compete effectively by specializing in drugs that target one or two specific ailments. The industry is capital-intensive: average annual revenue per worker is about US$700,000. Pharmaceuticals Manufacture Industry Forecast The output of US drug manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 8% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 ChemGenex (HQ) Brett Heading, Chairman

Level 4, 199 Moorabool St. Geelong, Victoria 3220 Australia Phone: +61-3-5223-9900 Fax: +61-3-5229-0100

http://www.chemgenex.com.


Chesapeake Energy (CHK) June 23, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at Chesapeake Energy (CHK), the central US oil and gas development and production company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (June 22, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Bearish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Chesapeake says it has cut 50 jobs in corporate office in Oklahoma City http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chesapeake-says-it-has-cut-50-apf-2185869771.html?x=0&.v=4 Monday’s Market Action Close 19.36 - 1.59

Volume 17,995,500/shrs


There one Gap open up on April 2, 2009 at 17.77/18.17, the near term resistance is 19.95, support at 19.01, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 21.39 . This is Chesapeake Energy (CHK): This exploration and production company concentrates on building natural gas reserves through the acquisition and development of oil and gas assets across the US. The Midcontinent region accounts for the more that a third of the company's estimated proved reserves of 12 trillion cu. ft. of natural gas equivalent, but Chesapeake also has assets along the Gulf Coast, in the Permian Basin, Appalachia, and in the Ark-La-Tex region. In 2008 it owned or had stakes in 41,200 producing oil and natural gas wells that produced 2.3 billion cu. ft. of natural gas equivalent per day, 92% of which was natural gas. Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by economic activity, population growth, and energy efficiency for residential, industrial, and transportational uses of oil and gas. Profitability of individual companies is driven by the success rate of new wells drilled and the ability to increase production from existing wells. Large companies are advantaged by access to capital, including the ability to buy or merge smaller companies. Small companies compete by focusing on, and developing expertise in, a few geographic areas. The industry is capital intensive: average annual revenue per employee is about US$5MM. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Industry Forecast The output of US natural gas extraction and crude petroleum production is forecast to decline at an annual compounded rate of 4% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Chesapeake Energy Corporation (HQ) Aubrey K. McClendon Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer 6100 North Western Avenue Oklahoma City, OK 73118 United States Phone: 405-848-8000 Fax: 405-843-0573

http://www.chk.com


Coeur D Alene Mines Corp (CDE) Up-date 1 June 23, 2009 Today let’s look at Couer D Alene Mines Corp. (CDE), the Silver and Gold miner, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (June 22, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral ,mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Coeur Applauds Today's Supreme Court Decision Upholding Kensington Mine Tailings Permit Mine Represents 135% Increase to Coeur’s Gold Production Levels and Long-term Economic Stimulus and Job Growth to Southeast Alaska

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Coeur-Applauds-Todays-Supreme-bw-2835357599.html?x=0&.v=1


Monday’s Market Action: Close 11.36

+ .56

Volume 8.589,100/shrs

There is a Gap open up on Mar 19, 2009 at .66/.67, the near term resistance is 11.69, support at 10.32, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 12.56. This is Coeur D Alene Mines Corp (CDE). Couer D Alene is a mining company that operates in exploration, development and mining of silver and gold in properties located in South America, the United States, Australia, and Mexico. Industries Where Coeur d'Alene Mines Competes Metals & Mining Precious Metals Mining & Processing (primary)

Coeur D Alene Mines Corp (HQ) Chairman, President and CEO Dennis E. Wheeler 505 Front Avenue 400 Coeur d'Alene Mines Building Coeur d'Alene, ID 83814 Phone: 208-667-3511 Fax: 208-667-2213

Web Site: http://www.coeur.com


Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) Up-date 4 June 23, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Dendreon Corp. (DNDN), the #1 cancer vaccine biotech company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (June 22, 42009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: McAdams Wright Ragen upgrades DNDN http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=DNDN Monday’s Market Action Close 24.54

- 1.54

Volume 4,744,400/shrs


There is a Bullish Engulfing Candle on June 17 and two Gaps open up between Mar 13 and Apr 13, 2009 at 3.42/7.01, the near term resistance is 25.38, support at 24.38 and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 2055. This is Dendreon Corp. (DNDN): This biotechnology company engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutics to enhance cancer treatment options for patients. The company’s product portfolio includes active cellular immunotherapy, monoclonal antibody, and small molecule product candidates to treat various cancers. Its product candidates comprise Provenge (sipuleucel-T), an active cellular immunotherapy that has completed two Phase III trials for the treatment of asymptomatic, metastatic, and androgen-independent prostate cancer; and Neuvenge (lapuleucel-T), an investigational active immunotherapy for the treatment of patients with breast, ovarian, and other solid tumors expressing HER2/neu. The company also has a range of products in preclinical studies, which include CEA for the treatment of breast, lung, and colon cancer; CA-9 (MN) for the treatment of kidney, colon, and cervical cancer; Anti-Serine Protease for the treatment of multiple cancers; and Anti-HLA-DR for the treatment of hematologic malignancies, as well as TRPM8 for the treatment of lung, breast, prostate, and colon cancer. Dendreon Corporation, formerly known as Activated Cell Therapy, Inc., was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington. Competitive Landscape Demand for biotechnology products and services are driven primarily by the willingness of insurers to pay for new medical treatments. The profitability of individual companies depends on the discovery and effective marketing of new products. Because the market for potential products is so large, small biotechnology companies can co-exist successfully with large ones if they have expertise in a particular line of research.

Biotechnology Sector Industry Forecast The output of US scientific research and development, an indicator of biotechnology activity, is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 9% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Dendreon Corp. (HQ) Mitchell H. Gold M.D. Chief Executive Officer and President 3005 First Avenue Seattle, WA 98121 United States Phone: 206-256-4545 Fax: 206-256-0571 http://www.dendreon.com


Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Up-date 13 June 23, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), a global leader in M&A and Securities underwriting, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (June 22, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Very Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Times are fat at Goldman Sachs, as eviscerated competitors and smart trading rake in the dough. http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/22/goldman-sachs-walgreen-personal-finance-investing-ideas-dividendyield.html?partner=yahootix


Monday’s Market Action Close 137.04

- 6.12

Volume 13,939,800/shrs

There is a DOJI on June 19 and two Gaps open up between Mar 11 and June 4, 2009 at 85.45/112.50, the near term resistance is 130.42, support at 137.16, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 134.00. This is Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS): A global leader in mergers and acquisitions advice and securities underwriting, Goldman offers a gamut of investment banking and asset management services to corporate and government clients as well as institutional and individual investors. It owns Goldman Sachs Execution & Clearing, one of the largest market makers on the NYSE, and is also a leading market maker for fixed income products, currencies, and commodities. In September 2008 the Federal Reserve mandated that Goldman Sachs become a bank holding company, along with fellow investment bank Morgan Stanley. The Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by economic activity that results in company mergers, acquisitions, or public financing. The profitability of an investment bank depends on its ability to accurately assess both the value of a business transaction and the readiness of the market to buy the attendant debt or equity. Big firms have an advantage because large customer transactions require firms with substantial financial resources. Small investment banks can compete by participating in syndications and operating in regional markets or specialized industries. Although labor-intensive, the industry produces very high value: average annual revenue per employee at large firms is close to US$1MM. Investment Banking Industry Forecast The output of US securities, commodity contracts, and investments, an indicator for investment banking, is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4.1% between 2008 and 2013. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (HQ) Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer, Managing Director: Lloyd C. Blankfein 85 Broad Street 17th Floor New York, NY 10004 United States Phone: 212-902-1000 Fax: 212-902-3000 http://www.goldmansachs.com


Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) June 23, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at Marvell Technology Group (MVRL): the maker of digital and mixed-signal integrated circuits for data storage and broadband communications applications, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (June 22, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Marvell Hints at Tech Turnaround

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10523063/1/marvell-hints-at-techturnaround.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA


Monday’s Market Action Close 11.48

- .53

Volume 29,847,200/shrs

There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on June 22, and no Gaps open up or down on the Chart, the near term resistance is 11.73, support at 11.34, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 11.04. This is Marvell Technology Group (MVRL): The Company offers digital and mixed-signal integrated circuits for data storage and broadband communications applications. Products include read channels (which convert analog data from a magnetic disk into digital data for computing), preamplifiers, and Ethernet switch controllers and transceivers. The fabless semiconductor company draws most of its sales from a few customers, including Western Digital (21% of sales), Toshiba, and Samsung Electronics. Marvell gets more than 80% of sales from the Asia/Pacific region. Competitive Landscape The industry depends highly on demand from the computer industry and makers of telecommunications products such as cell phones, which can vary sharply from year to year. Companies can be successful producing standard parts at low cost or by producing highly specialized components. Small companies can compete effectively with large ones by producing specialized products or developing new applications. Technological expertise is extremely important. The industry is highly automated: average annual revenue per employee is about US$300,000. Electronic Components & Semiconductor Manufacture Industry Forecast The value of US electronic components manufacturing output is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (HQ) Sehat Sutardja Ph.D., Co-Founder, Exec. Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer & President Canon's Court 22 Victoria Street Hamilton, HM 12 Bermuda Phone: 441-296-6395 Fax: 408-328-0120 http://www.marvell.com


VocalTec Communications Ltd. (VOCL) Up-date 1 June 23, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at VocalTec Communications Ltd. (VOCL), the innovative IT network management software builder, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (June 22, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: VocalTec Announces Innovative Large-Scale Class-5 Solution for Mobile Networks http://finance.yahoo.com/news/VocalTec-Announces-Innovative-bw-2582576724.html?x=0&.v=1


Monday’s Market Action Close .89

+ .29

Volume 137,000/shrs

There are two Gaps open up between Apr 16 and June 22, 2009 at .33/62, the near term resistance is NIL, support at .66, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is .50. This is VocalTec Communications, Ltd. (VOCL): The Company provides carrier-class voice-over Internet protocol (VoIP) solutions for communication service providers worldwide. The companyÂ’s Essentra product family includes Essentra CX media gateway controller that enables providers of national and international long distance services, as well as VoIP wholesale providers to build and/or migrate their infrastructure to packet-based VoIP networks, with connectivity to PSTN/SS7 services; Essentra EX peering manager, which facilitates peering between SIP and/or H.323 networks and addresses carriers' requirements in the areas of protocol interworking, security, and intelligent voice routing; and Essentra BAX application server that enables the delivery of residential and hosted enterprise VoIP services over various broadband access infrastructures. It also offers legacy products, such as TdGATE 3X00, which is a voice over broadband gateway that allows service providers to provide ISDN and telephony services over broadband access infrastructure based on ATM AAL2 standards; HUNT 8110, a broadband access concentrator, which aggregates various types of traffic coming from the enterprise network, including TDM and IP, towards the ATM network; VocalTec GW2000 and GW480 carrier grade gateways that provide TDM to VoIP interconnection; VocalTec VA, a gatekeeper that is used to manage a network of gateways and enable routing management of such networks; and VNM network management software to manage the network, and provide element management and OSS functions to such networks. The company markets and distributes its products directly and through distribution channels to fixed line national and international long distance carriers, competitive local exchange carriers, incumbent local exchange carriers, alternative VoIP telephony carriers, and Internet telephony service providers. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Herzliya, Israel. Competitive Landscape The industry depends on purchases from businesses, telephone companies, cable companies, data communications providers, and TV and radio broadcasters. Profitability for individual companies is linked to technical innovation and the ability to secure high-volume contracts from large customers. Small companies can be successful if they make highly specialized products. There are large economies of scale in manufacturing standard products, but many products are specialized and produced in small manufacturing plants. Annual revenue per employee in a large plant varies from US$500K to US$1M. Telecommunications Equipment Manufacturers Industry Forecast The output of US communication equipment manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 2% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 VocalTec Communications Ltd. (HQ) Chief Exec. Officer and President: Ido Gur 60 Medinat Hayehudim Street PO Box 4041 Herzliya, 46140 Israel Phone: 972 9 970 3888 Fax: 972 9 955 8175 http://www.tdsoft.com


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Red Roadmaster Stock Talk 23rd June 2009