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Red Roadmaster

STOCK TALK


Red Roadmaster


19th June, 2009

Contact Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. redroadmaster@aol.com

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highlyregarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world. Ebeling has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/ Support Levels.


The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Recap

June 22, 2009 Alert: The Red Roadmaster looks CarMax, Inc., (KMX) and Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC) the biggest Price Gainers last Friday, at for the 1st time.

Recap of the US Stock Market Action for the Week Ending June 19 US stocks rallied into the close last Friday led by banks and big cap techs. "This Bull Market is in the early stages,” Hugh Johnson, who manages more than US$1.5B as chairman of Albany, New York-based Johnson Illington, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “The numbers we’ve been looking at, with regard to the economy, pretty clearly indicate that probably in the Q-3 we’re going to have an expansion.” JPMorgan rose to the highest price in a week on the announcement saying it will cost less to repay government rescue funds than analysts estimated. Microsoft rallied after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added it to its “conviction buy list” and Apple climbed after releasing a new iPhone. Commodity producers fell with Crude Oil and metals prices. The S&P 500 added 0.3% to close at 921.23 on the day. The index was off 2.6% in its first weekly loss in a month, but closing above the Key Level of 919. The lagging DJIA shed 15.87 pts (0.2%) to close at 8,539.73, and the leading NAS tallied up + 19.75 pts (1.09%) to close at 1,827.47. US Treasuries gained as traders bet losses that pushed 10-year yields to the highest in more than a week cannot be sustained. Ten-year yields increased 14 basis points last yesterday, the most since June 4. The US$ declined against most of its major counterparts as speculation the global recession is easing prompted investors to buy higher-yielding assets. It declined 0.4% to US$1.3952 vs. the Euro, from US$1.39 last Thursday. Crude oil for July delivery fell US$1.77 (2.5%) to US69.60bbl at the close trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude Oil futures have climbed 56% this year and are off 3.4% on the week last week. Volume and Breadth: Volume was heavy on the NYSE, with about 2.13B/shrs changing hands, well above last year's estimated daily average of 1.49B/shrs, and on the NAS, about 3B/shrs traded, well above last year's daily average of 2.28B/shrs. Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 1,868 to 1,117 and on the NAS there were 1,565 advancers vs. 1,084 decliners. Stocks to Watch Today Apple, Inc (APPL), CarMax, Inc., (KMX), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Modavox Inc (MDVX), Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC), UBS AG (UBS), WuXi PharmaTech (WX), and Wyndham Worldwide Corporation (WYN).


Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Up-date 36 Apple, Inc (APPL) Up-date 36 June 22, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Apple, Inc (APPL), the creator of the iPhone and other wonderful stuff, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (June 19, 2009) market action, are Bullish; in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Apple CEO Steve Jobs had liver transplant http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN205034320090620?rpc=44


Friday’s Market Action Close

139.48

+ 3.60

Volume 25,775,200/shrs

There is a DOJI on June 15 and seven Gaps open up between Mar 11 and Jun 4, 2009 at 89.17/136.00, the near term resistance is at 145.31, support at 136.6 5, and the 50 day exponential moving average is 121.60 This is Apple, Inc. (AAPL): Apple, the world’s computer/gadget innovator has caused a revolution in personal computing and digital media distribution. The company's desktop and laptop computers feature its OS X operating system, they include its Mac mini, iMac, and MacBook for the consumer and education markets, and powerful Mac Pro and MacBook Pro for high end consumers and professionals involved in design and publishing. Apple posted a huge success with its iPod digital music players, and iTunes, its online music store. Other Apple products: iPhone mobile phones, Xserve, servers, Airport, wireless networking equipment, plus publishing and multimedia software. Apple’s FileMaker sub provides database software. Apple, Inc. ranks #103 in the Fortune 500 Companies List. The Competitive Landscape Computer product demand is directly tied to consumer and business income. The profitability of individual computer companies depends on purchasing and production efficiencies, and on technological expertise. Large companies have economies of scale in purchasing and production. Small companies can compete successfully by specializing in certain products or by developing superior technology. The industry is capital-intensive and highly automated: annual revenue per employee is about US$500,000. The output of US computer manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4.7 % between 2008 and 2013. Apple, Inc. (HQ) Steven P. (Steve) Jobs, CEO and Director 1 Infinite Loop Cupertino, CA 95014 United States http://www.apple.com

Apple Subsidiaries Apple Computer (UK) Limited FileMaker, Inc


CARMAX INC (KMX) June 22, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at CarMax, Inc., (KMX), the USA's largest specialty used-car retailer, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (June 19, 2009) market action are, Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Very Bullish, and long term Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: CarMax's Profit Drops 3% as Margins Rise http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124540984615231083.html?ru=yahoo#mod=yahoo_hs


Friday’s Market Action Close 15.31

+ 2.22

Volume 14,463,000/shrs

There is a Bullish Engulfing Candle on June 18, and two Gaps open up between May 28 and June 19, 2009 at 10.66/13.92, the near term resistance is 16.33, support at 13.82, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 12.16. This is CarMax, Inc., (KMX): the Company operates as a retailer of used vehicles in the United States. The company also sells new vehicles under various franchise agreements, as well as engages in wholesale vehicle sales. In addition, it provides related products and services, including the financing of vehicle purchases through its own finance operation, CarMax Auto Finance, as well as third-party lenders; the sale of extended service plans and accessories; the appraisal and purchase of vehicles directly from consumers; and vehicle repair service. As of February 28, 2009, the company operated 59 production superstores and 41 non-production superstores. CarMax, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Richmond, Virginia. Competitive Landscape Consumer spending and interest rates drive demand. The profitability of individual companies depends on the volume and mix of cars and services sold. Large companies can offer a wider selection of cars and have advantages in marketing, purchasing, and finance. Small companies can compete effectively by offering superior customer service or serving a local market. Annual revenue per worker averages US$600,000 for new car dealerships and US$700,000 for used.

Automobile Dealerships Industry Forecast US personal consumption expenditures of new and used autos and other motor vehicles are forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 1 % between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 CarMax Inc. (HQ) Thomas J. Folliard, Chief Exec. Officer, President & Director 12800 Tuckahoe Creek Parkway Richmond, VA 23238 United States Phone: 804-747-0422 Fax: 804-217-6819 http://www.carmax.com


Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Up-date 11 June 22, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), the World's #1 software company, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Friday’s (June 19, 2009) market action is Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com


Latest News: CarMax, E-Trade, Microsoft are big movers http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CarMax-ETrade-Microsoft-are-apf-750382330.html?x=0&.v=2 Friday’s Market Action Close 24.07

+ .57

Volume 115,449,200/shrs

There is a DOJI on June 19 and three Gaps open up between Mar 31 and June 19, 2009 at 17.76/23.75, the near term resistance is NIL, support 23.62, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 20.97. This is Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): The World's #1 software company provides a variety of products and services, including its Windows operating systems and Office software suite. The company has expanded into markets such as video game consoles, server and storage software, and digital music players. Microsoft has reached settlements to end a slew of antitrust investigations and lawsuits, including agreeing to uniformly license its operating systems and allowing manufacturers to include competing software with Windows. In 2008 Microsoft made repeated efforts to acquire Yahoo! but was rebuffed by that company's board of directors. Microsoft Corporation (HQ) Steven A. Ballmer Chief Exec. Officer and Exec. Director One Microsoft Way Redmond, WA 98052-6399 United States Phone: 425-882-8080 Fax: 425-936-7329 http://www.microsoft.com

Microsoft Subsidiaries Avanade Inc. ContentGuard, Inc. Ensemble Studios


Modavox Inc (MDVX) Up-date 1 June 22, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s have a look at Modavox Inc (MDVX), the US a producer of audio video streaming products on the internet, from a Technical POV. The overall indication, after Friday’s (June 19, 2009) market action is, Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Very Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com


Latest News: Modavox Provides Corporate Development Update to Shareholders Enhanced Management Team and Board of Directors Focused On Scalable Growth Opportunities Stemming From Proprietary Internet Technology http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Modavox-Provides-Corporate-pz-2340053139.html?x=0&.v=3 Friday’s Market Action Close 4.35 + .30 Volume 308,300 /shrs There is a Bullish Engulfing Candle on June 17 and two Gaps open up between Jan 23 and Apr 6, 2009 at 1.42/2.85 near term resistance is 4.82, support at 3.98, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 3.40. This is Modavox, Inc (MDVX): the owner of the “Method and System for Adding Function to a Webpage”, their first US patent the “BoomBox Radio” trademark catapulted the business to the front line of the industry. The customized communications company is a pioneer in Internet broadcasting, producing and syndicating online audio and video, offering innovative, effective, and comprehensive online tools for reaching targeted niche communities worldwide. Through patented Modavox technology, Modavox delivers content straight to desktops and Internet-enabled devices. Modavox provides managed access for live and on-demand Internet radio broadcasting, e-learning and rich media advertising. They currently boast nearly 100 private and corporate institutions as clients. Their managed sites draw in 5 millions unique visitors per month. Internet radio accounts for 75% of total revenue, and interactive media for 25%. The Competitive Landscape The success of this industry is in the ability of the company engaged in operations to monetize online content. Content monetization is achieved through targeted advertising, platform, subscription, and ecommerce fees along with the sale of highly developed content publishing and distribution software products. The ability of the firm to align their services with consumers needs is one part of the equation to create a profitable business model online. The internet is fiercely competitive and those who stand out as successful traditionally benefit from high margins of profitability due to the nature of business. Software and Programming Industry Performance Year to date through April 24th, the Internet Software & Services index was up 23.8%, versus 3.7% decline in the S&P 1500. In 2008, the index fell 54.2% versus a 38.2% drop for the 1500.

Modavox Inc. Chairman and Chief Director: Shelly J Meyers 4636 East University Drive Phoenix, AZ 85034 Phone: 602-648-6080 http://www.modavox.com


Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC) June 22, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC), the maker of Dirty Harry’s weapon of choice, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (June 19, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com


Latest News: Smith & Wesson Holding Biggest Price Gainer http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124544461689532351.html?ru=yahoo#mod=yahoo_hs Friday’s Market Action Close 6.03 + 1.10

Volume 8,715,900/shrs

There is a Bullish Engulfing Candle on June 18, and one Gap open up on June 19, 2009 at 4.97/5.55, the near term resistance is 6.80, support at 5.83, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 5.38. This is Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC): operating through subsidiary Smith & Wesson Corp. makes handguns and police accessories, as well as gun safety devices (under the M&P Series name). The company also sells mountain bikes outfitted for police officers and car, boat, and home alarm system packages. It licenses its brand name to apparel, watches, sunglasses, gift sets, and more. In 2001 Smith & Wesson Holding (formerly Saf-T-Hammer) purchased Smith & Wesson, which was founded in 1852. Competitive Landscape Demand, which has been flat for years, is driven partly by hunters and partly by weapon upgrades by police departments. The profitability of individual companies is closely linked to marketing. Small companies can compete effectively by producing premium-priced high-quality or decorative guns. Although automation has increased, the industry is still fairly labor-intensive: average annual revenue per worker is about US$150,000. Gun Manufacturing Industry Forecast The output of US small arms manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 2 % between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008

S&W Holdings (HQ) Michael L. Golden President, CEO, and Director

2100 Roosevelt Ave. Springfield, MA 01104 United States Phone: 413-781-8300 Fax: 413-747-3317 Toll Free: 800-331-0852 http://www.smith-wesson.com

Smith & Wesson Holding Subsidiaries Diversified Machine Inc.


UBS AG (UBS) Up-date 1 June 22, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at UBS AG (UBS), one of the world’s largest investment managers, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (June 19, 2009) market action, are Neutral; in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com


Latest News: The US and Swiss Agree to Share Data on Tax Evaders http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124545426008332895.html?ru=yahoo#mod=yahoo_hs Friday’s Market Action Close 13.25

-.06

Volume 3,461,400/shrs

There a DOJI on June 17 and 3 Gaps open up between Mar 10 and Apr29, 2009 at 7.44/12.92, the near term resistance is 13.46, support at 12.99, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 13.45. This is UBS AG (UBS): UBS, one of the world’s largest wealth managers, has offices around the world -the lion's share in Europe and North America -- that provide financial services through three major segments: Global Wealth Management & Business Banking, UBS Investment Bank, and Global Asset Management. UBS serves institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals by offering mutual funds, asset management, corporate finance, and estate planning; its investment banking operations include securities underwriting, mergers and acquisitions advice, fixed-income products, and foreign exchange. UBS also provides traditional banking services in its home country of Switzerland. Competitive Landscape Demand for banking services is closely tied to economic activity and the level of interest rates. The profitability of individual banks depends on marketing skills, efficient operations, and good risk management. Large economies of scale exist in some segments of the industry, which has encouraged industry consolidation. Smaller banks can compete successfully in segments where customer service or knowledge of the local market is more important. The industry is capital-intensive and highly automated: annual revenue per employee is close to US$300,000.

Banks and Credit Unions Industry Forecast The output of US banks and credit unions is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 1% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008

UBS AG (HQ) Chairman, Peter Kurer Bahnhof Strasse 45 Zurich, 8098 Switzerland Phone: 41 44 234 11 11 Fax: 41 44 239 91 11 http://www.ubs.com

UBS Subsidiaries UBS Financial Services Inc. UBS Investment Bank


WuXi PharmaTech (WX) Up-date 1 June 22, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at WuXi PharmaTech (WX), provides laboratory and manufacturing services for customers in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical equipment industries, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (June 19, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Very Bullish, mid-term Very Bullish, and long term Bullish.


**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: WuXi PharmaTech to Present at 3rd Annual Jefferies Healthcare Conference http://finance.yahoo.com/news/WuXi-PharmaTech-to-Present-at-prnews-1257887367.html?x=0&.v=65 Friday’s Market Action

Close 8.32 +. 78

Volume 657,000/shrs

There are two Gaps open up between May 15 and June 19, 2009 at 5.75/7.73, the near term resistance is 8.73, support at 7.77, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 7.02. This is WuXi PharmaTech (WX): The Company provides laboratory and manufacturing services for customers in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical equipment industries. Its core lab services business offers contract research, discovery chemistry, service biology, device testing, and pharmaceutical development services. WuXi's ancillary manufacturing operations mainly produce advanced intermediate drugs, biologics-based drugs, and active drug ingredients. Top customers include leading global drug makers Pfizer and Merck.

Competitive Landscape Demand for biotechnology products and services are driven primarily by the willingness of insurers to pay for new medical treatments. The profitability of individual companies depends on the discovery and effective marketing of new products. Because the market for potential products is so large, small biotechnology companies can co-exist successfully with large ones if they have expertise in a particular line of research. Biotechnology Sector Industry Forecast The output of US scientific research and development, an indicator of biotechnology activity, is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 9% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 WuXi PharmaTech (Cayman) Inc. (HQ) Ge Li Ph.D., Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer 288 FuTe ZhongLu Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Shanghai, 200131 China Phone: 86 21 5046 1111 Fax: 86 21 5046 1000

http://www.wuxipharmatech.com


Wyndham Worldwide Corporation (WYN) Up-date 1 June 22, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Wyndham Worldwide Corporation (WYN), one of the World's largest hospitality firms, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (June 19, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Very Bullish, and long term Very Bullish.


**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Shares of Wyndham Worldwide surge after lodging company reaffirms 2nd-qtr guidance http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wyndham-shares-surge-after-apf-3675734740.html?x=0&.v=1 Friday’s Market Action

Close 12.30

+ 1.10

Volume 7,689,000/shrs

There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on June 19 and one Gap open up on Apr 9, 2009 at 6.37/6.40, the near term resistance is 12.88, support at 11.76, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 10.58. This is Wyndham Worldwide Corporation (WYN): The Company is one of the world's largest hospitality firms, Wyndham Worldwide includes a portfolio of some 7,000 franchised hotels and more than 590,000 hotel rooms worldwide through its Wyndham Hotel Group lodging segment, which includes more than 20 familiar brands, such as Days Inn, Howard Johnson, Ramada, and Super 8. The company also operates business segments Group RCI (vacation exchange and rental properties in some 100 countries) and Wyndham Vacation Ownership (vacation ownership resorts in the US, Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, and the South Pacific). Wyndham was spun off from previous owner Cendant Corporation in 2006. Competitive Landscape Business and tourist travel drive demand and are closely linked to the health of the economy. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations, because many costs are fixed, and on effective marketing. Large companies have advantages in economies of scale in operations, can more easily raise capital, and have strong name recognition. Small companies can compete effectively in favorable locations and by providing specialty services. A hotel business requires large amounts of capital, but operations are labor-intensive: average annual revenue per employee is less than US$65,000. Hotel and Motel - Lodging Industry Forecast The output of US hotels, rooming houses, camps, and other lodging is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 1% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008. Wyndham Worldwide Corporation (HQ) Stephen P. Holmes Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer Seven Sylvan Way Parsippany, NJ 07054 United States Phone: 973-753-6000 http://www.wyndhamworldwide.com

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Red Roadmaster Stock Talk 22nd June, 2009