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Red Roadmaster

STOCK TALK


Red Roadmaster


20th July, 2009

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highlyregarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world. Ebeling has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/ Support Levels.

Contact

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. redroadmaster@aol.com


The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Re-cap + Stock Talk ™

July 20, 2009

Alert: RR looks at BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX), Echelon Corp (ELON), The International Paper Co. (IP) and The Kroger Company (KR) for the 1st time. The US stock market moved North 7 % last week, time for a pause to refresh?

Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the week ending July 17, 2009 + Stock Talk. US stocks closed out their best week in four months last Friday Last week all three major US stock indexes recorded their best week since mid-March 2009, as the lagging DJIA and S&P 500 ended four-week losing streaks, on the week, the DJIA rose 7.3 percent, the S&P 500 gained 7%, and the leading NAS tallied up + 7.4%. The DJIA closed + 32.12 pts, or 0.37% at 8,743.94, the S&P 500 dipped 0.36 of a pt, or 0.04%, to 940.38, and the NAS added 1.58 pts, or 0.08%, to end the week at 1,886.61. The S&P 500 ran North about 40% from its 12 yr closing low on March 9, 2009, took a breather in June, and is now up 39% from the March 9 low, and rising. Recent US economics reports hold that US housing starts and building permits climbed more than expected in June, prompted by a surge in single-family home starts. Volume and Breadth: volume was light on the NYSE, with 1.29B/shrs changing hands, below last year's estimated daily average of 1.49B, and on the NAS, about 1.91B/shrs traded, below last year's daily average of 2.28B. Declining stocks slightly outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by 1,498 to 1,469, and on the NAS, about three stocks fell for every two that rose. Stock to Watch Today Advance Micro Devices, Inc (AMD), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX), Echelon Corp (ELON), International Paper Co. (IP), The Kroger Company (KR), and McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)


Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Up-date 2 July 20, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), the # maker of PC and server microprocessors, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (July 17, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bearish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Technology sector's big earnings week to reveal broader economic trends

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Big-tech-earnings-week-will-apf-3818393255.html?x=0&.v=3


Friday’s Market Action Close 4.00

+. 08

Volume 15,922,600/shrs

There is a Inverted Hammer on July 15 and one Gap open up on July 15, 2009 at 3.61/3.80, the near term resistance is 4.10, support at 3.84, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 3.35. This is Advance Micro Devices, Inc (AMD): AMD has made some advances against rival Intel. AMD ranks #2 in PC and server microprocessors. Though Intel commands about 75% of the world processor market, AMD has at times eroded that market share thanks to the popularity of its Athlon and Opteron processor families. The company also makes embedded processors and other chips for communications and networking applications. AMD spun off its flash memory device business into another company, Spansion. Hewlett-Packard is AMD's biggest customer and Chinese OEMs account for about 40% of the company's sales.

The Competitive Landscape The industry depends highly on demand from the computer industry and makers of telecommunications products like cell phones, which can vary sharply from year to year. Companies can be successful producing standard parts at low cost or by producing highly specialized components. Small companies can compete effectively with large ones by producing specialized products or developing new applications. Technological expertise is extremely important. The industry is highly automated: average annual revenue per employee is about US$250,000. Electronic Components & Semiconductor Manufacture Industry Forecast The value of US electronic components manufacturing output is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4.3 percent between 2008 and 2013.

Advance Micro Devices, Inc. (HQ) President, CEO, and Director Derrick R. (Dirk) Meyer 1 AMD Place Sunnyvale, CA 94088 United States Phone: 408-749-4000 Fax: 408-982-6164 Toll Free: 800-538-8450 http://www.amd.com


BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) July 20, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX), the pharma company that is tackling the bad enzymes that spread disease,from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (July 17, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bullish. The recent candlestick analysis is Very Bearish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Positive results push BioCryst flu drug closer to federal approval http://birmingham.bizjournals.com/birmingham/stories/2009/07/13/daily40.html?ana=yfcpc

Friday’s Market Action Close 5.95 + 1.73

Volume 8,313,200/shrs


There is a Bearish Doji Star on July 17 and foru Gaps open up between April 27 and July 17, 2009 at 2.28/5.60, the near term resistance is NIL, support at 5.60, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 3.80. This is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX): The Company creates small molecule compounds that inhibit enzymes associated with viral diseases, autoimmune conditions, and cancer. BioCryst's lead product candidate fodosine HCl may treat T-cell cancers, including T-cell lymphomas and leukemias, by preventing T-cells from wildly multiplying and harming the body. With funding from the Department of Health and Human Services, it is developing peramavir, a potential treatment for various strains of influenza, including the much-discussed avian flu. A third clinical-stage candidate may treat autoimmune conditions.

Competitive Landscape Demand for pharmaceutical manufacture is driven by the desire to cure illness and disease. The profitability of individual companies depends on their ability to discover and market new drugs. Large companies benefit from their economies of scale in research, manufacturing, and marketing. Small companies can compete effectively by specializing in drugs that target one or two specific ailments. The industry is capital-intensive: average annual revenue per worker is about US$700,000. Pharmaceuticals Manufacture Industry Forecast The output of US drug manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 8 % between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (HQ) Jon P. Stonehouse Chief Exec. Officer, Pres and Exec. Director 2190 Parkway Lake Drive Birmingham, AL 35244 United States Phone: 205-444-4600 Fax: 205-444-4640 http://www.biocryst.com


Echelon Corp (ELON) July 20, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at Echelon Corp (ELON), the linker of automated equipment, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (July 17, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bullish. The recent candlestick analysis is Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Echelon Corporation to Announce Results for the 2009 Second Quarter on July 30, 2009

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Echelon-Corporation-to-bw-3044022785.html?x=0&.v=1


Friday’s Market Action Close 8.52 + .32

Volume 205,300/shrs

There is a Bearish Harami on July 14, and one Gap open up on July 15, 2009 at 7.50/7.53, the near term resistance is 8.59, support at 8.50, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 7.69. This is Echelon Corp (ELON): The Company designs hardware and software that link and automate industrial equipment, building environments, and devices ranging from light switches to conveyor belts. Its open-source operating system, LonWorks Network Services, lets equipment interact through local networks and the Internet. Echelon's hardware, transceivers, routers, network interfaces, can sense, monitor, and control such equipment as automatic doors, security systems, and railcars. Echelon also provides an automated electricity metering system called Networked Energy Services (NES).

Competitive Landscape The US economy heavily influences business spending for software products. The success of programming companies depends heavily on strong technical expertise. The success of packagedsoftware companies depends on technical expertise and good marketing. Small software companies compete mainly by developing packaged products in small niches or producing custom products for individuals. Many small companies form alliances with larger ones to market their products. Computer Software Development Industry Forecast The output of US software publishers is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 6 % between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008

Echelon Corporation (HQ) M. Kenneth Oshman Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer 550 Meridian Avenue San Jose, CA 95126 United States - Map Phone: 408-938-5200 Fax: 408-790-3800 Web Site: http://www.echelon.com


International Paper Co. (IP) July 20, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at International Paper Co. (IP), the world's largest forest products company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (July 17, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Very Bullish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bullish. The recent candlestick analysis is Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: International Paper Declares Dividends http://finance.yahoo.com/news/International-Paper-Declares-prnews-2950082652.html?x=0&.v=1

Friday’s Market Action Close 16.25 + .11

Volume 6,638,000/shrs


There are six Gaps open up between March 10 and July 17, 2009 at 4.45/15.50, the near term resistance is NIL, support at 14.79 , and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 13.92. This is International Paper Co. (IP): this is the world's largest forest products company produces uncoated paper, industrial and consumer packaging, and pulp. Together, paper and packaging account for nearly two-thirds of the company's sales. IP also distributes printing, packaging, and graphic-art supplies in North America through subsidiary xpedx and in Europe through multiple subsidiaries. Slimming down, the company has sold its specialty chemicals operations, the majority of its lumber and wood products business, and most of the 6.3 million acres of US forestland it once owned. It retains 300,000 acres of US land and owns or has harvesting rights to nearly 250,000 acres of forestland in Brazil.

Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by general commercial activity and population growth. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations, as products are sold mainly based on price. Big companies have advantages in distribution and can supply large customers. There are few economies of scale in manufacturing; large and small producers operate the same kinds of plants -- large producers just have more of them. Small companies can compete successfully by making specialty products or serving a small geographical market. The industry is capital-intensive: average annual revenue per worker is close to US$300,000, although the figure varies by product segment. Paper Products Manufacture Industry Forecast The output of US pulp, paper, and paperboard products manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 2 percent between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 International Paper Co. (HQ) John V. Faraci , Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer and Chairman of Exec. Committee 6400 Poplar Avenue Memphis, TN 38197 United States Phone: 901-419-7000 Fax: 901-419-4539 http://www.internationalpaper.com


The Kroger Company (KR) July 20, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at The Kroger Company (KR), the USA’s #1 pure grocery chain, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (June 29, 2009) market action, are Bearish: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Very Bearish, and long term Bearish. The recent candlestick analysis is Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: TheFortuneFinancial.com Free Market Research on KR, ADM, CRM, JBL, DSCO and CMCSK http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TheFortuneFinancialcom-Free-iw-3113304542.html?x=0&.v=1

Friday’s Market Action Close 21.66 + .62

Volume 9,767,300/shrs


There are no Gaps open up or down on the KR chart; the near term resistance is 21.73, support at 57.80, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 57.05. This is The Kroger Company (KR): Wal-Mart has overtaken Kroger as the largest seller of groceries in the US. While Kroger has diversified through acquisitions, adding jewelry and general merchandise to its mix, food stores still account for about 85% of sales. The company operates about 3,550 stores, including some 2,480 supermarkets and multi-department stores, under two dozen banners, in about 30 states. It also runs 685 convenience stores under names such as Quik Stop and Kwik Shop. Kroger's Fred Meyer Stores subsidiary (acquired in 1999) operates about 125 supercenters, which offer groceries, general merchandise, and jewelry, in the western US.

Competitive Landscape Population growth and consumer tastes drive demand. Because margins are low, the profitability of individual companies depends on high volume sales and efficient operations. Large companies can offer a wide selection of products and have advantages in purchasing, distribution, marketing, and finance. Small companies can compete effectively by offering specialty products, serving a local market, or providing superior customer service.

Grocery Stores and Supermarkets Industry Forecast US personal spending on food for human and pet consumption, a major driver for grocery stores and supermarkets, is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 1 percent between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Kroger Co. (HQ) David B. Dillon, Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer 1014 Vine Street Cincinnati, OH 45202-1100 United States Phone: 513-762-4000 Fax: 513-762-1575 http://www.kroger.com


McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Up-date 6 July 20, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), the world's #1 fast-food company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (July 17, 2009) market action is Bullish: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish. The recent Candle Stick Analysis is: Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Atlanta is No. 2 on the country’s “Happiest City for Families” list released by McDonald’s Corp. http://atlanta.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2009/07/13/daily96.html?ana=yfcpc

Friday’s Market Action Close 57.84

+ .62

Volume 9,767,300/shrs


There is a Bullish Harami on July 17, and one Gap open up May 8, 2009 at 54.37/54.31, the near term resistance is 58.31, support at 57.80, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 57.05. This is McDonald’s Corporation (MCD): "McDonald's is the world's #1 fast-food company by sales, with more than 31,000 restaurants serving burgers and fries in 120 countries, with about 14,000 Golden Arches locations are in the USA. The popular chain is well-known for its Big Macs, Quarter Pounders, and Chicken McNuggets. Most of its outlets are free-standing units, but McDonald's also has many quickservice kiosk units located in airports and retail areas. Each unit gets its food and packaging from approved suppliers and uses standardized procedures to ensure that a Big Mac purchased in Pittsburgh tastes the same as one bought in Beijing, I lived in Beijing for 4 years and it’s true. More than 75% of its restaurants are run by franchisees or affiliates.

The Competitive Landscape Demographics and personal income drive demand. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations, effective marketing, and the ability to provide fast service. Large companies have advantages in purchasing, financing, and marketing. Small companies can compete by offering unique products or serving a local market. The industry is highly labor-intensive: average annual revenue per worker is just under US$40,000. McDonald's Corporation (HQ) Chairman; Andrew J. (Andy) McKenna Sr.

2111 McDonalds Dr. Oak Brook, IL 60523 United States Phone: 630-623-3000 Fax: 630-623-5004 Toll Free: 800-244-6227 http://www.mcdonalds.com

McDonald's Subsidiaries McDonald's Restaurants Limited Ronald McDonald House Charities, Inc.

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