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Red Roadmaster

STOCK TALK


Red Roadmaster


17th July, 2009

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highlyregarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world. Ebeling has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/ Support Levels.

Contact

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. redroadmaster@aol.com


The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Re-cap + Stock Talk ™

July 17, 2009 Perma-bear Nouriel Roubini announced today that the worst is past in terms of economic and financial conditions, and the DJIA caught a bid Thursday afternoon, once again rallying to finish near the highs of the session, extending a 3 day rally to 4. The DJIA is now at its highest close since June 12, thanks to the 7% gain so far this week.

Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for July 16, 2009 and Stock Talk. US stocks rallied for a 4th day running yesterday, as Tech takes the bow for providing the power to the broad market indicating to me that the market's overall bias and up trend has improved. The DJIA rallied 95.61 pts, or 1.11%, to close at 8,711.82, the S&P 500 gained 8.06 pts, or 0.86% to close at 940.74, and the leading NAS tallied 22.13 pts, or 1.19%, to end the session at 1,885.03. IBM rose 3.2% rose to US$110.64 providing the Dow a big boost during the regular session, climbing 2.9% in extended trade after it released its Q-2 results. Better-than-expected results from Goldman Sachs and Intel set the tone early this week amid the negative media "noise" on expectations of a sad Q-2 marked by falling revenues and cost cuts. Shares of Qualcomm Inc lifted the NAS after RBC Capital Markets started coverage of the cell phone chip supplier with an "outperform" rating. Qualcomm gained 1.4% to US$46.72. Google recovered from earlier losses to gain 1% to US$442.60 on NAS but the stock fell 2.4% in extended trade after its quarterly results came out. Volume and Breadth: Volume was moderate on the NYSE, with 1.18B/shrs changing hands, below last year's estimated daily average of 1.49B/shrs and on the NAS, about 2.11B/shr traded, below last year's daily average of 2.28b/shrs. Advancing stocks outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a ratio of about 7 to 3, and on the NAS, about eight stocks rose for every five that fell. Stocks to Watch Today Alcoa, Inc. (AA), Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN), Dell Inc. (DELL), IBM (IBM), Koss Corp (KOSS), and Mosaic Co. (MOS).


Alcoa Inc. (AA) Up-date 9 July 17, 2009

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Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Alcoa, Inc. (AA), one of the world’s top producers of aluminum, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (July 16, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term, Bullish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral. Current Candle Stick analysis; Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Dow Watch: Roubini Rebound (Not) http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10544921/1/dow-watch-roubini-reboundnot.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA


Thursday’s Market Action Close 10.40

- .30

Volume 32,498,500/shrs

There are four Gaps open down between Jun 15 and Jul 6, 2009 at 11.80/9.69 and one Gap open up on Mar 19, 2009 at 5.65/5.73, the near term resistance is 10.87, support at 9.95 and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 9.86.

This is Alcoa, Inc. (AA): Alcoa is among the world's top producers of alumina (aluminum's principal ingredient, processed from bauxite) and aluminum. Its vertically integrated operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting; primary products include alumina and its chemicals, automotive components, and sheet aluminum for beverage cans. The company's non-aluminum products include fiber-optic cables. Major markets include the aerospace, automotive, and construction industries. In 2007 Alcoa offered to buy what was then the world's #3 aluminum producer, Alcan, for US$33B but was trumped by Rio Tinto's US$40B offer. The next year it sold its packaging business to the Rank Group. The Competitive Landscape Demand comes largely from the manufacturers of durable goods like motor vehicles, machinery, containers, and construction steel. The profitability of individual companies depends largely on efficient operations, because most products are commodities sold based on price. Big companies have large economies of scale in production. Accordingly, most producers of secondary products buy raw metal from the large producers. Small companies can compete by operating efficient local mini-mills or producing specialty products. The industry is highly automated: average annual revenue per worker is close to US$300,000. Alcoa, Inc (HQ) Chairman Alain J. P. Belda

390 Park Ave. New York, NY 10022-4608 United States Phone: 212-836-2600 Fax: 212-836-2815 http://www.alcoa.com

Alcoa Subsidiaries Alcoa Alunimio S.A. Alcoa Home Exteriors, Inc. Kawneer Company, Inc.


Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Up-date 9 July 17, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), the premier online (AKA World’s Biggest) marketer/seller, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (July 16, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Neutral. The Recent Candle Stick analysis is Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Tech Stocks Rally

http://seekingalpha.com/article/149328-tech-stocks-rally?source=yahoo


Thursday’s Market Action Close 86.11 + 1.56

Volume 5,362,500/shrs

There is a DOJI on July 10, are three Gaps open up between Jan 30 and July 15, 2009 at 51.85/82.78, the near term resistance is 87.56, support is 84.44, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 80.12. This is Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN); Not too long ago, remember?, Jeff Bezos, Amazon.com’s founder/24% owner, opened the World’s biggest book store, since then Amazon.com has become the world’s biggest sell everything and all store, as the expansion pushed Amazon.com in multiple directions. The main web site www.amazon.com offers millions of books, music, DVDs, and videos, which account 60% + of company sales. Amazon.com also sells auto parts, toys, tools, electronics, home furnishings, apparel, health and beauty aids, prescription drugs, groceries, and lots of services like film processing, etc.. Amazon.com has been the model for Internet companies that put market share ahead of profits, and those huge profits led to acquisitions funded by rocketing market capitalization, begetting a model that is now focused on profits. AMZN is ranked #171 in FORTUNE 500 & #301 in FT Global 500. The Competition Amazon.com’s competitors are primarily in the Music, Video, Book & Entertainment Retail industry. Amazon.com also competes in the Apparel & Accessories Retail, Auto Parts Retail, and Camera & Optical Goods Retail sectors. Examples: Barns & Noble, Borders, Columbia House and eBay.

Amazon.com (HQ) Chairman, President, and CEO Jeffrey P. (Jeff) Bezos SVP and CFO Thomas J. (Tom) Szkutak 1200 12th Ave. South, Ste. 1200 Seattle, WA 98144-2734 United States (Map) Phone: 206-266-1000 http://www.amazon.com

Amazon.com Subsidiaries Amazon.co.uk Ltd Amazon.de GmbH Audible, Inc


Dell Inc. (DELL) Up-date 6 July 17, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Dell Inc. (DELL), one of the world's top suppliers of personal computers, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (July 16, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Very Bullish. The recent Candlestick Analysis is: Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com


Latest News: Dell to sell refurbishing plant to Genco Supply Chain for undisclosed sum

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dell-to-sell-refurbishing-apf-2209691889.html?x=0&.v=1 Thursday’s Market Action Close

12.75 + .43

Volume 50,485,300/shrs

There is one Gap open up on Mar 11, 2009 at 8.76/8.77, and one Gap open down on Jul 2, 2009 at 13.35/13.23, the near term resistance is 13.13, and support at 12.71 and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 12.37. This is Dell Inc. (DELL): The Company engages in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, sale, and support of computer systems and services worldwide. It offers desktop PCs and workstations; notebook computers; servers and networking products; and storage solutions, including storage area networks, network-attached storage, direct-attached storage, disk and tape backup systems, and removable disk backup. The company also offers third party software products, which comprise operating systems, business and office applications, anti-virus and related security software, and entertainment software; peripheral products, including software titles, printers, televisions, notebook accessories, networking and wireless products, digital cameras, power adapters, scanners, and other products; and displays, including flat panel monitors and projectors. In addition, it provides infrastructure consulting services, deployment services, asset recovery and recycling services, training services, support services, and managed services. Further, the company provides a range of financial services, including originating, collecting, and servicing customer receivables related to the purchase of Dell products; and financing alternatives, asset management services, and other customer financial services for business and consumer customers. Its customers comprise large corporate, government, healthcare, and education accounts, as well as small and medium businesses, and individual consumers. The company sells its products and services directly to customers through sales representatives, telephone-based sales, and online at www.dell.com, as well as through various indirect sales channels Competitive Landscape Demand is tied to consumer and business income. The profitability of individual computer companies depends on purchasing and production efficiencies, and on technological expertise. Large companies have economies of scale in purchasing and production. Small companies can compete successfully by specializing in certain products or by developing superior technology. The industry is capital-intensive and highly automated: annual revenue per employee is about US$500,000. Computer Manufacture Industry Forecast The output of US computer manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008. Dell Inc. (HQ) Founder, Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer Michael S. Dell One Dell Way Round Rock, TX 78682 United States Phone: 512-338-4400 Fax: 512-728-3653 http://www.dell.com


Dell Subsidiaries Alienware Corporation ASAP Software, Inc. Dell Canada Inc.

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Up-date 6 July 17, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at “Big Blue”, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), the World’s #1 provider of computer products and computer services, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (July 16, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bearish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com


Latest News: IBM hikes full-year outlook, shares shine http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IBM-hikes-fullyear-outlook-rb-3506156306.html?x=0&.v=5 Thursday’s Market Action Close 110.64 + 3.42 Volume 15,029,800/shrs There is a Bearish Harami on July 14 and two Gaps open up between Mar 31 and July 15, 2009 at 94.74/104.06, the near term resistance is 111.72, support at 109.40, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 104.06.

This is IBM (IBM): “Big Blue” is the world's top provider of computer products and services. IBM is a leader in every market in which it competes, the company makes mainframes and servers, storage systems, and peripherals. Though perhaps still best known for its hardware, IBM's growing services business now accounts for more than half of its sales. Its IT services arm is the largest in the world and the company is also one of the largest providers of both software, ranking #2, behind Microsoft, and semiconductors.

The Competitive Landscape Demand for IT services is driven by rapid technological advances, but spending for these expensive products depends on the health of the US economy. The profitability of companies in the industry depends on maintaining technical expertise and on good marketing. Small companies can compete effectively by specializing in market niches or by partnering with larger companies that want to offer a broad array of services. Only the large companies can provide outsourcing services to big corporate customers. Average annual revenue per employee is close to US$200,000. Information Technology Industry Forecast The output of US computer and data processing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 6.1% between 2008 and 2013. IBM (HQ) Chairman, President, and CEO Samuel J. Palmisano New Orchard Rd. Armonk, NY 10504 United States Phone: 914-499-1900 Toll Free: 800-426-4968 http://www.ibm.com

IBM Subsidiaries Cognos ULC IBM Australia Limited IBM Canada Ltd.


Koss Corp (KOSS) Up-date 1 July 17, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Koss Corp (KOSS), a retailer of stereo headphones and related accessory products, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (July 16, 2009) market action, are Bullish, in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick Analysis is: Neutral

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com


Latest News: Nil Thursday’s Market Action Close

14.86

2.36

Volume 6,000/shrs

There is an Inverted Hammer on July 13, and four Gaps open down between Sept 24, 2008 and July 15, 2009 at 16.50/12.60. Near-term resistance is 15.00, and near term support is 13.67. The 50 day exponential moving average is 13.41. This is Koss Corp (KOSS): operates in the audio/video industry segment of the home entertainment industry through its design, manufacture and sale of stereo headphones and related accessory products. The Company's products are sold through audio specialty stores, the Internet, direct mail catalogs, regional department store chains, discount department stores, military exchanges, prisons, and national retailers under the Koss name and dual label. Koss Corporation also sells products to distributors for resale to school systems, and directly to other manufactures for inclusion with their own products. The Company has more than 300 domestic dealers and its products are carried in approximately 13,400 domestic retail outlets. Koss Corporation's subsidiaries include Bi-Audio and Koss Classics. The corporation has no debt to speak of.

Competitive Landscape Consumer electronics sector has been profoundly affected by globalization and technological changes of the last two decades. Manufacturing of many consumer electronics has typically moved outside of the US. However, US employment in industries supplying content and services has risen. It can be inferred that the US is becoming an exporter to a larger extent in content and services and this trend will continue in the long-term.

Koss Corp (HQ) Chairman and Chief Director: John C Koss 4129 N. Port Washington Ave. Milwaukee, WI 53212 United States Phone: 414-964-5000 Fax: 414-964-8615 http://www.koss.com


Mosaic Co. (MOS) Up-date 4 July 17, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Mosaic Co. (MOS), one of the World’s largest makers of phosphate based fertilizers, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (July 16, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Very Bearish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com


Latest News: Why Did Mosaic Surge 11% Thursday? http://www.cnbc.com/id/31945308/site/14081545?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

Thursday’s Market Action Close 49.98 + 5.43

Volume 19,978,700/shrs

There is a Bearish Doji Star on July 14 and a Gap open up on July 16, 2009 at 45.09/47.90, the near term resistance is 50.31, support at 48.44, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 46.42. This is Mosaic Co. (MOS): This Company was pieced together from the merger of IMC Global and Cargill's former crop nutrition unit in 2004, creating one of the world's largest makers of phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Mosaic combined IMC's largely domestic business with the global reach provided by Cargill's businesses; in fact, Mosaic does more than two-thirds of its business outside the US. Cargill owns two-thirds of Mosaic, marking the first public ownership of any part of Cargill, the secondlargest private company in the US (behind Koch).

Competitive Landscape Demand for agricultural chemicals depends mainly on demand for various crops, which in turn depends on crop prices. The profitability of individual companies is linked to efficient operations and marketing. Big producers have large economies of scale in production. Smaller companies can compete effectively by making specialty chemicals or fertilizer mixtures for local market. Operations are capital-intensive and highly automated: annual revenue per employee at a large plant is close to US$700,000. Chemical Manufacturing - Agricultural Industry Forecast The output of US agricultural fertilizers and chemicals is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 2% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008

Mosaic Co. (HQ) Chief Exec. Officer, Pres, Director James T. Prokopanko Atria Corporate Center Suite E490 3033 Campus Drive Plymouth, MN 55441 United States Phone: 763-577-2700 Fax: 763-559-2860 http://www.mosaicco.com

Mosaic Company Subsidiaries Canpotex Limited Disclaimer

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