29th July, 2009
Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highlyregarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world. Ebeling has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/ Support Levels.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. firstname.lastname@example.org
The Red Roadmasterâ€™s US Market Re-cap + Stock Talk â„˘
July 29, 2009 Alert: RR looks at Sprint Nextel, Inc. for the 1st time.
US Stocks started the day lower on Tuesday and then recovered most of the session's losses in the last hour or so, led by the Healthcare sector.
Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for 28 July 2009 + Stock Talk The DJIA and the S&P 500 paused for a dip Yesterday in a rally that has the up across the board 11 % in 10 trading sessions. The DJIA gave up 11.79 pts, or 0.13%, to close at 9,096.72, the S&P 500 shed 2.56 pts, or 0.26%, to close at 979.62, and the leading NAS tallied up a + 7.62 pts, or 0.39%, to close at 1,975.51 on the day. Shorter-dated US Treasury debt fell after weak results in an auction of a record US$42B of 2 yr notes had some analysts wondering if the global appetite for US government debt might be waning. Among the NAS' big advancers, Amgen's stock rose 2.7% to US$62.42 following the company's release of much better-than-expected Q-2 earnings after Monday's closing Bell. US single family home prices rose in May from April, the 1st monthly increase in about three years. Volume and Breadth: Trade was light on the NYSE, where about 1.24B/shrs changed hands, less than last year's estimated daily average of 1.49B/shrs, and on the NAS about 2.23B/shrs traded, close to last year's daily average of 2.28B/shrs. Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a ratio of about 8 to 7, and on the NAS seven stocks rose for every six that fell. Stocks to Watch Today Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL), The Dow Chemical Company (DOW), Hess Corporation (HES), Sprint Nextel (S),
Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) Up-date 1 July 29, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today letâ€™s look at Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL), a top maker and marketer of tooth-paste, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesdayâ€™s (July 28, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Very Bullish, and long term Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bullish.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News: Top 3 Stocks: Oracle, Colgate, Kellogg http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10556028/1/top-5-stocks-oracle-colgatekellogg.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Tuesdayâ€™s Market Action
Close 75.37 + .27
There is a Bullish Engulfing Candle on July 28 and two Gap open up between Apr 16 and Jun 1, 2009 at 58.05/66.12, the near term resistance is 78.07, support at 74.34, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 70.54. This is Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL): The Company is a top maker and marketer of toothpaste and a worldwide leader in oral care products (mouthwashes, toothpaste, toothbrushes). Its Hill's Pet Nutrition subsidiary makes Science Diet and Prescription Diet pet foods, while itâ€™s Tom's of Maine unit covers the natural toothpaste niche. Colgate-Palmolive also makes personal care items (deodorants, shampoos, soaps) and household cleaners (bleaches, fabric softeners, soaps). The company boasts operations in more than 70 countries and sells its products in about 200 countries. Colgate-Palmolive ended its multiyear restructuring plan in late 2008. Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by population growth and consumer preferences. The profitability of individual companies depends on product innovation, effective sales and marketing, and efficient operations. Large companies have scale advantages in purchasing, manufacturing, distribution, and marketing. Small companies can compete effectively by offering specialized products. The industry is capital-intensive: average annual revenue per worker is over US$600,000. Personal Care Products Manufacturing Industry Forecast
The output of US toiletries manufacturing is forecast to decline at an annual compounded rate of 1 % between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Colgate-Palmolive Co. (HQ) Ian M. Cook Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer and President
300 Park Avenue New York, NY 10022 United States Phone: 212-310-2000 Fax: 212-310-3284
The Dow Chemical Company (DOW) Up-date 2 July 29, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today letâ€™s look at The Dow Chemical Company (DOW), the # 1 US chemical Company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesdayâ€™s (July 28, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Very Bearish
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News: Four Materials ETFs Worth Considering
Tuesdayâ€™s Market Action Close 20.21 + .08
There is a Hammer on July 27 and five Gaps open up between Apr 2 and July 20, 2009 at 8.93/17.25, the near term resistance is NIL, support at 19.73, and the 50 day exponential moving average is 16.54.
This is Dow Chemical Company (DOW): The Company is a world leader in the production of plastics, chemicals, hydrocarbons, and agrochemicals. It is the largest chemical company in the US and #2 in the world. The company is also is a leader in performance plastics, i.e., engineering plastics, polyurethanes, and materials for Dow Automotive. Other products include polyethylene resins for packaging, such as Styrofoam brand insulation, fibers, and films, as well as performance chemicals like acrylic acid. The company also manufactures commodity chemicals (chlor-alkalies and glycols) and agricultural chemicals. A unit, Hydrocarbons and Energy, makes petrochemicals. Dow owns 50% of silicone products maker Dow Corning.
Dow Chemical's competition is in the industrial, agricultural and performance sectors of the Chemical Manufacturing Industry. Competitive Landscape Demand depends on the overall strength of the US economy, because most industrial chemicals are used in the manufacture of more-complicated products like fibers, plastics, paints, and paper. The profitability of individual companies is closely linked to efficient operations, because most products are commodities. Big producers have large economies of scale in production, which is why some chemicals are made by just a handful of companies. Small companies can compete effectively by making specialized or highly-purified products. The industry is highly automated: average annual revenue per employee is over US$600,000.
Industries Where Dow Chemical Competes Chemicals Plastic & Fiber Manufacturing Agricultural Chemicals Basic and Intermediate Chemical & Petrochemical Manufacturing Paints, Coatings & Other Finishing Product Manufacturing Specialty Chemical Manufacturing
Chemical Manufacturing - Industrial Industry Forecast The output of US petrochemicals, industrial gas, synthetic dyes and pigments, and other basic chemicals is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 3.9 % between 2008 and 2013.
Dow Chemical (HQ) Chairman, President & CEO Andrew N. Liveris
2030 Dow Center Midland, MI 48674 United States Phone: 989-636-1000 Fax: 989-636-1830 Toll Free: 800-258-2436 http://www.dow.com
Hess Corporation (HES) Up-date 1 July 29, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today letâ€™s look at Hess Corporation (HES), the large international integrated oil and gas company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesdayâ€™s (July 28 2009) market action is Bearish: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bearish, and long term Very Bearish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Neutral.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News: US Natural Gas Production Now So Abundant that Export Led Growth May Begin to Stimulate Prices and Equipment Sales According to 5 Star Equity Analyst http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Natural-Gas-Production-Now-twst-3250267531.html?x=0&.v=1
Tuesdayâ€™s Market Action
Close 53.57 + .09
There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on Jul 23 and one Gaps open up on July 14, 2009 at 48.63/48.64, the near term resistance is 54.78, support at 52.64, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 54.03.
This is Hess Corporation (HES): This integrated oil and gas company conducts exploration and production in primarily in Algeria, Australia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Denmark, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ghana, Indonesia, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Peru, Russia, Thailand, the UK and the US. In 2008 Hess reported proved reserves total more than 1.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent. It operates a 50%owned refinery (HOVENSA) in the US Virgin Islands and a smaller one in New Jersey, and it markets gasoline through about 1,370 HESS gas stations, chiefly in the eastern US. It also provides power to customers in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. CEO John Hess owns about 14% of the company.
Competitive Landscape The volume of consumer and commercial driving drives demand. The profitability of individual companies depends on the ability to secure high-traffic locations, generate high-volume sales, and buy gas at the lowest possible cost. Large companies have advantages in purchasing and finance. Small companies can compete effectively by having superior locations. Average annual revenue per worker is US$300,000. Gas Stations Industry Forecast US personal consumption expenditures of gasoline and oil, all major indicators for gas stations, are forecast to decline at an annual compounded rate of 1 % between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008.
Hess Corporation (HQ) John B. Hess, Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer
1185 Avenue of the Americas New York, NY 10036 United States Phone: 212-997-8500 Fax: 212-536-8390 http://www.hess.com Hess Corporation Subsidiaries
Hess Limited HOVENSA, L.L.C. WILCOHESS, LLC
Sprint Nextel (S) July 29, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at Sprint Nextel (S), the USA’s #3 wireless carrier behind Verizon Wireless and AT&T, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Wednesday’s (July 22, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bearish, and long term Neutral. The recent candlestick analysis is Very Bullish.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News: Wireless Carrier to Take Over Smaller Virgin Mobile in Deal Worth US$483MM http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124878495837186519.html?ru=yahoo#mod=yahoo_hs
Tuesday’s Market Action Close 4.59 + .04
There is a Bullish Harami on July 28, and one Gap open up on July 15, 2009 at 4.44/4.45 , the near term resistance is 4.72, support at 4.28, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 4.67. This is Sprint Nextel (S): the USAâ€™s #3 wireless carrier behind Verizon Wireless and AT&T. Mobility in terms of subscribers. Sprint Nextel serves nearly 40 million customers with mobile voice, data, and Web services over its nationwide network. While the namesake brand is reserved for post-paid accounts, the company also offers pre-paid mobile access (mainly to the youth market) through its Boost Mobile subsidiary. Sprint Nextel also provides cellular access to other carriers on a wholesale basis. The company's smaller, legacy wireline business provides long-distance voice, Internet, and data network services primarily to corporate customers and other carrier.
Competitive Landscape Demand for wireless services is driven by consumer income. The profitability of individual companies depends on marketing and technological skill. Large companies have advantages in marketing and in delivering a comprehensive array of services nationally. Small companies can compete effectively by delivering economically attractive service packages tailored to niche groups regionally. The industry is capital intensive: average annual revenue per employee is about US$350,000. Wireless Telecommunications Services Industry Forecast The output of US paging, cellular, and other wireless telecommunications, which includes wireless telecommunications, is forecast to increase at an annual compounded rate of 4 percent between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008. Sprint Nextel Corp. (HQ) Daniel R. Hesse Chief Exec. Officer, President, & Director 6200 Sprint Parkway Overland Park, KS 66251 United States Phone: 800-829-0965 http://www.sprint.com
Time Warner, Inc. (TWX) Up-Date 4 July 29, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Time Warner, Inc (TWX), the world’s largest entertainment company, a Giant among Giants, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesday’s (July 28, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bullish.
Latest News: Time Warner Inc. Q2 2009 Earnings Scheduled to start Wed, Jul 29, 2009, 10:30 am Eastern
Tuesdayâ€™s Market Action
Close 27.01 - .59
There is a Homing Pigeon on July 27 and now Gaps open up or down between, the support is 26.60, the near term resistance is 27.33, and the 50 day EMA is 25.29. This is Time Warner, Inc. (TWX): Among all media companies Time Warner is a Giant, the world's largest media conglomerate with operations covering motion picture production and distribution, television, cable TV, publishing, and online content and services. Its film and TV production division is the venerable Warner Bros. Entertainment, the WB brand includes Warner Bros. Pictures and New Line Cinema, and its television properties include Cinemax, HBO, and Turner Broadcasting. Time Warner Cable is the #2 cable operator in the US, serving more than 14 million subscribers, and AOL attracts more than 100 million Internet users to its online content portal. The publishing unit, Venerable Time Inc., is the # 1 consumer magazine publisher with such titles as Fortune, People, and Time. 2007 sales: US$46.5B, Employees: 86,000+.
The Competitive Landscape In the motion picture production and distribution sector consumer spending drives demand. The profitability of individual companies depends on creativity, marketing, and distribution. Large companies have the advantages of long term contracts with key actors and directors, a permanent staff of technical employees, and wide distribution networks. Small companies compete by creating marketable movies, often for niche audiences, on low budgets. Although production work is labor-intensive, the value of the product results in high average annual industry revenue of US$300,000 per employee.
The Competition Disney
New York, NY
New York, NY
The US economy heavily influences business spending for entertainment products. The success of programming companies depends heavily on strong technical expertise. The success of packagedsoftware companies depends on technical expertise and good marketing. Small entertainment companies compete mainly by developing packaged products in small niches or producing custom products for individuals. Many small companies form alliances with larger ones to make and market their products.
Time Warner, Inc. (HQ) Jeffrey L. Bewkes Chairman, President & CEO, 1 Time Warner Center New York, NY 10019-8016 United States
Phone: 212-484-8000 www.timewarner.com
Textron Inc. (TXT) Up-date 2 July 29, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today letâ€™s look at Textron (TXT), the worldwide manufacturer of Bell Helicopters and Cessna aircraft, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday��€™s (June 29, 2009) market action, are Neutral; in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Neutral. The recent candlestick analysis is Very Bearish.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News: Textron sees a more stable business jet market Posts Q-2 loss, cuts Y 2009 earnings outlook but raises more cash http://www.marketwatch.com/story/textron-swings-to-a-second-quarter-loss-2009-07-28?siteid=yhoof
Tuesdayâ€™s Market Action Close 13.11
There is a Bearish Harami on July 27, and three Gap open up between April 2, and July 28, 2009 at 6.50/11.32, the near term resistance is 13.56, support at 12.46, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 10.41. This is Textron (TXT): Textron, Inc. operates in the aircraft, industrial, and finance businesses worldwide. It operates through five segments: Cessna, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, and Finance. The Cessna segment manufactures general aviation aircraft, such as business jets, single engine turboprops, and single engine piston aircraft, as well as provides aftermarket services. The Bell segment manufactures and supplies helicopters, tiltrotor aircraft, and helicopter-related spare parts and services for both military and commercial applications. The Textron Systems segment produces precision weapons; airborne and ground-based surveillance systems; intelligence and situational awareness software; armored vehicles and turrets; reciprocating piston aircraft engines; and aircraft and missile control actuators, valves, and related components for the defense, aerospace, and general aviation markets. The Industrial segment develops and manufactures blow-molded fuel systems cars, light trucks, all-terrain vehicles and watercraft, and windshield and headlamp washer systems; produces metal fuel fillers and engine camshafts for the automotive market; and bottles and plastic containers for food, household, laboratory and industrial uses. It also manufactures powered equipment, electrical test and measurement instruments, hand and hydraulic powered tools, and electrical and fiber optic connectors; golf cars and off-road utility vehicles powered by electric and internal combustion engines; and turfmaintenance equipment and turf-care vehicles. The Finance segment provides aircraft finance, assetbased lending, distribution finance, golf finance, resort finance, and structured capital. The company sells its products through a network of sales representatives, distributors, and authorized independent sales representatives, as well as directly to end users, home improvement retailers, and original equipment manufacturers. Textron was founded in 1923 and is based in Providence, the Rhode Island.
Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by the US military budget and the overall economic climate, which affects airline traffic and demand for new commercial aircraft. The profitability of individual companies depends on technical expertise and the ability to accurately price long-term contracts. Large companies enjoy economies of scale in design, manufacturing, and purchasing. Production of aircraft and major aircraft components is highly automated: average revenue per employee is over US$300,000. Aerospace Products and Parts Manufacture Industry Forecast The output of US aerospace products is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 7% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008. Textron (HQ) Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer Lewis B. Campbell 40 Westminster St. Providence, RI 02903-2596 United States Phone: 401-421-2800 Fax: 401-457-2220 http://www.textron.com
Textron Subsidiaries AAI Corporation Bell Helicopter Textron Inc. Cessna Aircraft Company
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