The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices + ™ Featuring Crude Oil, Gold, and Forex Technical Up-dates
Vol. 12110 # 1 Copyright 13 December 2010
Date Line: Singapore
The Red Roadmaster™ Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Editor/Compiler/Analyst/Commentator
You can now subscribe to email updates and RSS feeds from Ebeling Heffernan Live Trading News Coming soon: real time Level 2 Stock Quotes You can also follow us on Twitter. Please go to http//twitter.com/EbelingHefferna and join in. Fall Edition # 13 13 December 2010 6.00 am US EDT Dear Reader, You can read my Market Reports, and Up to Date International News daily and weekly on www.livetradingnews.com , www.paulebeling.com , www.aseanaffairs.com and www.pinnacledigest.com as I round up relevant global market news and technical analysis up-dated daily. + You can see many of my articles and commentary on Google News http//news.google.com/news/search?aq=f&pz=1&cf=all&ned=us&hl=en&q=paul+ebeling + seen on ASEAN Affairs www.aseanaffairs.com
Redâ€™s Bull and Bear Trade Alerts Red's Bull Trade Alert: Allergan (NYSE:AGN) See them all at www.livetradingnews.com, www.ebeling-heffernan.com , www.paulebeling.com, www.aseanaffairs.com and www.redroadmaster.com
Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the Week ending 10 December 2010
Bull Trade Alert: The S&P 500 tried and could not break 1,228 in April, and then again in early November, and faded. Then, after the S&P 500 closed Thursday above 1,228, the closely watched 61.8% fibo retracement of its drop from late Y 2007 to March 2009, the index held comfortably above that Key level for a 2nd day running. Indexes closed near session highs with the NAS up for its 8th consecutive daily gainer; in that time, the tech-heavy index is up 5.5%. The NAS finished at its highest level since December 31, 2007. Volume was below average as is typical for this time of the year. US stocks rose Friday, the S&P 500 broke a Key technical resistance level suggesting the year-end rally will extend. Industrial shares led the charge Friday, with General Electric (NYSE:GE) closed + 3.4% after it raised its dividend for a 2nd time this year. The S&P industrial sector index GSPI rose 1.03%. On the Day: The DJIA .DJI rose 40.26 pts, or 0.35%, to close at 11,410.32, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 7.40% , or 0.60%, to close at 1,240.40, and the leading NAS .IXIC tallied up + 20.87 pts, or 0.80%, to end the session at 2,637.54.
On the the Week: The DJIA rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 gained 1.3% and the NAS + 1.8% Shares of Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) rose after Standard & Poor's said the company, along with F5 Networks Inc (NASDAQ:FFIV), Newfield Exploration Co (NFX: NFX) and Cablevision Systems Corp (NYSE:CVC), will be added to the S&P 500 index after trading closes next Friday. Netflix rose 1.9% to $94.63, Cablevision jumped 4.1% to $34.72, Newfield gained 3.3% to 72.37 and F5 Networks rose 3% to 143.09 The NAS boosted by a 2.3% gain in shares of Oracle Corp (NASDAQ:ORCL), hit its highest level since December 2007. Oracle shares closed at 29.95. Lifting the S&P health care index GSPA, Tenet Healthcare Inc (NYSE:THC) shares rose 55% to 6.65, passing the 6-per-share bid from Community Health Systems Inc (NYSE:CYH), and likely forcing the
potential buyer to raise its offer for the rival hospital company. The S&P health care index was up 0.9 percent. Community Health shares rose 13.4% to 35.89. In the latest signs of improvement in the US economic recovery, data showed consumer sentiment rose more than expected in early December, according a survey, and import prices in November climbed at their fastest pace in a year. Another positive signal came from the Commerce Department, which said the US trade deficit narrowed much more than expected in October. Overseas news helped boost equities, after a slew of data showed China's imports and exports jumped in November, bank lending topped forecasts and property investment powered ahead. China increased reserve requirements for banks but kept interest rates on hold. Treasuries retreated. Pressure varied as the benchmark 10 yr T-Note dropped almost a full point and the 30-yr T-Bond fell about 18 ticks. Their yields settled at about 3.32% and 4.43%, respectively. For the week, the yield on the 10-yr ended the week higher by little more than 30 basis points and near six-month highs. The 30 yr yield added only about a 12 basis points on the week. Commodities finished lower across the board today. Their slide was led by a 0.7% decline in livestock and grains. A pullback by the USD helped Gold and Silver prices bounce off of their intra-day lows. Into the close Feb gold settled with a 0.5% loss at 1384.90 oz, and Mar Silver fell 0.4% to settle at 28.61. Jan Crude Oil prices fell 0.7% to close at 87.79 bbl. It finished the week lower by 1.40, marking its 1st weekly decline in 3 wks. January Nat Gas fell 0.2% to end 4.45 per MMBtu. Overall losses in the commodity complex left the CRB Commodity Index to slide 0.4%, which fed into a 0.4% weekly loss
Advancing Sectors: Industrials (+1.0%), Financials (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.9%), Materials (+0.8%), Telecom (+0.6%), Tech (+0.5%), Utilities (+0.4%), Energy (+0.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%) Declining Sectors: (None Volume and Breadth: About 7.4B/shrs traded on the NYSE, the AMEX and the NAS, below the year's average of 8.62B/shrs. Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by about 2 to 1, and on the NAS, more than 2 stocks rose for each 1 that fell.
US Major Market Indexes Technical Analysis
Very Bullish (0.55)
Snap Shot of the World's Major Markets DJIA S&P 500 NAS S&P/TSX Mexico Bolsa Brazil Bovespa STOXX 50 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX FTSE MIB Nikkei TOPIX Hang Seng S&P/ASX 200 Shanghai
11410.30 1240.40 2637.54 13239.50 37677.80 68341.80 2839.53 5812.95 3857.35 7006.17 20487.30 10212.00 888.22 23162.90 4745.90 2841.04
+40.26 +7.40 +20.87 +72.53 +110.39 +462.37 -1.18 +4.99 -0.70 +42.01 -46.22 -73.93 -3.38 -8.89 +4.60 +30.09
+0.35% +0.60% +0.80% +0.55% +0.29% +0.68% -0.04% +0.09% -0.02% +0.60% -0.23% -0.72% -0.38% -0.04% +0.10% +1.07%
Red's Bull Trade Alert: Allergan (NYSE:AGN) 13 December 2010 LTN's Pattern Recognition Analyst, Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr, ID'd the start of a New Bullish Trend for Allergan. Shares of Allergan closed at 68.99 last Thursday, and opened Friday at 69.01. AGN closed at 69.27, + $0.28 (0.41%) on Friday. Friday's trading range was 68.69 on the low, and high of 69.39. Volume: 1,866,268/shrs is less than the average volume of 2,126,150/shrs. AGN is trading below its 50-Day Moving Average and above its 200 Day Moving Average. My Technical Indicators augur bullish price movement in here. The 52-week low is 55.25 and 52 week high is 74.94.
Overall Short Intermediate Long Neutral (0.21) Neutral (0.00) Bullish (0.29) Bullish (0.33)
Recent CandleStick Analysis Neutral
Open Gaps Direction Date Range Down 3 Nov 2010 74.44 to 73.75
Support and Resistance Type resist. resist. resist. resist. resist. supp supp supp supp supp
Value 76.56 74.60 72.61 71.38 69.70 68.57 67.00 66.17 65.17 64.53
Conf. 1 3 2 4 2 7 2 5 4 3
Disclaimer: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or for results obtained from the use of this information. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in Good Faith, are subject to change without notice. Before acting on any information contained on the website, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.
__________________________________________________________________________________ This Week on the USA Economic Front
December 14th Tuesday PPI, November (08:30): 0.5% expected, 0.4% past Core PPI, November (08:30): 0.2% expected, -0.6% past Retail Sales, November (08:30): 0.5% expected, 1.2% past Retail Sales ex-auto, November (08:30): 0.6% expected, 0.4% past Business Inventories, October (10:00): 1.1% expected, 0.9% past FOMC Rate Decision, December 14 (15:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% past
December 15th Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applications, 12/10 (07:00): -0.9% past CPI, November (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% past Core CPI, November (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% past Empire Manufacturing, December (08:30): 3.0 expected, -11.14 past Net Long-Term TIC Fl, October (09:00): $81.0B past Industrial Production, November (09:15): 0.3% expected, 0.0% past Capacity Utilization, November (09:15): 75.0% expected, 74.8% past NAHB Housing Market , December (10:00): 17 expected, 16 past Crude Oil Inventories, 12/11 (10:30): -3.82M past
December 16th Thursday Initial Claims, 12/11 (08:30): 425K expected, 421K past Continuing Claims, 12/05 (08:30): 4078K expected, 4086K past Housing Starts, November (08:30): 545K expected, 519K past Building Permits, November (08:30): 558K expected, 550K past Current Account Balance, Q3 (08:30): -$125.3B expected, -$123.3B past Philadelphia Fed, December (10:00): 12.5 expected, 22.5 past
December 17th Friday Leading Indicators, November (10:00): 1.2% expected, 0.5% past ___________________________________________________________________________________ This Week on the Earnings Front in the USA This is a quiet week for earnings in the US Markets: BBY, FDX, GM, ORCL and RIMM report On Tuesday: Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) before the opening Bell.
On Thursday: FedEx (NYSE: FDX) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) report before the opening Bell, after the closing Bell; Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) and Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) report. See the complete list for the week at: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20101213.html __________________________________________________________________________________
The Most Asked Question Last Week The Big Q: Red what is the Hot Metals Market, not Gold or Silverâ€Ś? The Big A: Rare Earth Metals There is a 70% chance that you did not know that here is a Group of Metals whose gains have out distanced Gold, Silver, and Copper in Y 2010, i.e. Rare Earth Metals. There are 17 chemical elements in the Rare Earth Metals (REMs), they are all in the Periodic Table, and called Scandium, Yttrium, and the 15 Lanthanoids. Over the last 10 yrs or so, use of these metals has risen dramatically with advancement of technology.
Rare Earth Metals are used in hybrid cars, iPhones, catalytic converters, flat screen televisions, green technology, and superconductors. As the World's need for Rare Earth Metals has grown, the supply has depleted, and there is a growing concern that there could be a shortage of these essential materials, and as a result prices have risen significantly; Rare Earth Metals are up more than 150% in Y 2010 A Key reason that the price of Rare Earth Metal has inflated is that 95% of the World's supply of them are produced in China. Over the past months we have heard stories that China would stop their Rare Earth Metals exports to Japan, thus, focusing on China's strong hold in this sector, and Western governments are concerned because these metals are used in their high-tech military products. Yes, there are significant deposits of Rare Earth Metals in various parts of the World, including North America, but there is not an abundance of mines that are in production due to the high cost of extraction and environmental issues, and now that prices are higher and demand is growing, many countries are re-starting their Rare Earth Metals mines and/or developing new ones. Mainstream investors/players have not yet entered to the Rare Earth Metals markets. And since prices have risen significantly they should exercise caution when entering this sector.
Those of us that know and understand the mining sector appreciate that prices can continue North in the short term, especially if a trade war develops with China, but after big move higher a prudent investor should not ever bet all of his/her savings into Rare Earth Metals at elevated levels, one has to study the markets, understand the fundamentals and technical and then make a plan if intending to speculate. There is money to be made trading this sector, but you must know the landscape first. Remember, Knowledge is Power. ___________________________________________________________________________________ Redâ€™s Edge and in the Trenches When you make a Plan, follow it; Discipline is Best IMO There is a big Club of market players whose members often fail to follow their plan for cutting losses; we have all been in that Club. Following the exit plan is usually an important element in successful trading. Failure to follow the original exit plan even once a price has passed the pre-determined exit point based on the thought that often invades ones mind to encourage hanging in there because it will come back is wrong trading strategy. Why? Because it is "Emotion." And no one wants to take a loss even though staying in the position on the if-come can lead to a deeper loss as the action moves against the trade. So, once again the correct way to trade is to make exit strategy before entering the play, that point in the strategic planning is when emotion is not running strong. A successful trader must follow the set forth discipline, not the call of emotion during the heat. Changing the play from the thoughtful discipline constructed as the trade was planned means one is no longer willing to accept the though out decision because it requires taking a loss. When planning a trade it is understood there is a risk and because of that there is a decision made on how to limit that risk and at what point. When one listen to the voice of emotion, and stay in a trade beyond the point previously chosen to exit one makes a decision to let losses run. And the loss can go from pennies to dollars quickly in volatile markets like we have today. So the lesson again is plan your work and work your plan, and exit when the trade turns against Red, and then get back in when it turns Green again. Sometimes savvy traders enter, exit and enter a position several times before it goes their way. So, discipline is best IMO. Have a great week. All the best,
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com PS: if you look at yourself as a player/trader, and you like doing it, then it is Key to understand what makes you "tick"; plus it is very helpful to understand the motivations for your actions and their timing in the entering and exiting positions. It is very important to strive to remove the emotion and focus on the business of trading the markets to win. When you acquire the discipline and the tools to remove the emotion you are on the way to winning and perhaps winning Big. PE
To succeed in trading a Player needs Knowledge ____________________________________________________________________________________ Red's List of Books to put on your Christmas List in the category of Business & Economics The Fearful Rise of Markets: A Short View of Global Bubbles and Synchronized Meltdowns, by John Authers A concise view of the financial crisis from the editor of the Financial Times Lex column Mr. Authers explains how financial markets failed so spectacularly, and what policymakers might do to put right some of the problems that have been exposed by the events. The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? by Ian Bremmer. The big news in the World economy this year has been the faster recovery in emerging economies than in the developed World. Mr. Bremmer thinks through the implications of the rise of China, Russia and OPEC’s Crude Oil-producing countries, which do not accept Western ideas about free market capitalism. Although the book offers a “scare story”, Mr. Bremmer highlights some important Global trends. Zombie Economics: How Dead Ideas Still Walk Among Us by John Quiggin. A critical look at some of the defining intellectual fashions of the past 30 yrs. Mr. Quiggin is a writer of great verve who presents some powerful evidence. Banking on the Future: The Fall and Rise of Central Banking, by Howard Davies and David Green This book may very well be the best assessment yet of the role played by the leading Western central banks, the US Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of England, in the run-up to the financial crisis and beyond, from 2 former insiders at the Top level UK policymakers. Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy, by Raghuram G. Rajan A high-powered accessible analysis of the financial crisis and its aftermath. Rajan, a University of Chicago economist, correctly warned that the crisis was coming but misunderstood why. The book abounds with striking and thought-provoking ideas that do not stand up to close intellectual scrutiny according to the reviewer at the Financial Times. The Art of Choosing: The Decisions We Make Every Day – What They Say About Us and How We Can Improve Them, by Sheena Lyengar
The Facebook Effect: The Insider Story of the Company that is Connecting the World, by David Kirkpatrick. The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, by Michael Lewis. This book is more fun than a book about the financial crisis should be. The author of Liar’s Poker returns to familiar ground in the debt markets and writes the most entertaining and accessible account yet of the sub-prime mortgage catastrophe, told through the eyes of a half-dozen oddballs and outsiders who realized that it would all end in tears. More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of the New Elite, by Sebastian Mallaby. The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves, by Matt Ridley. Freefall: Free Markets and the Sinking of the Global Economy by Joseph Stiglitz. “The best book so far on the financial crisis,” according to John Kay of the Financial Times MacroWikinomics: Rebooting Business and the World, by Don Tapscott and Anthony Williams. Remember that Knowledge is Power. The stock market is not gambling. It is disciplined work.
The Key to Stock Market Understanding We all know that markets and stocks go up and they go down. Players will have winning trades and losing trades. Individual trades do not determine if a trader is a success or failure. A losing trade can be a successful trade if the trader has followed the disciplined Plan and cut a loss timely. So, that being said and knowing that there will be times of drawdown for even the best trader, how is success measured in this business? Well, one way is to go back and look at steps along the path that brought you to trading. This will likely help you understand how well you are doing. Example: one of the first steps along the path to trading success was your learning how to use the computer, a basic skill that makes the work easier, faster and hopefully better, and it follows that improvements made in the steps along the path would likely improve overall success. Next is, have you completed and do you use a well-defined and controlled trading plan? And have you learned strategies to trade up down or sideways markets? Have you developed an exit strategy, whether you have a discipline to cut losses-whether you are dedicating time to education through reading, or seminars and/or have you structured your time to permit regularly attending to the business of trading? Hopefully you are getting more knowledgeable, as knowledge is Key.
So, then take the time to look back from where you are now, so you can analyze the steps that you have taken so far, looking at what you have done you can see what you have not done as well and that may lead you to improve our trading. You might look back and see that you have closed losing positions only after losses have mounted to the point where you feel hopeless. That revelation could lead you to establishing a more disciplined exit strategy. Instead of waiting for hopeless, instead decide to use the reversal of some indicator, or the break through a moving average as a more disciplined way to cut losses more quickly and more efficiently. I tell people this all the time when they call to ask. So, if you are not satisfied with your trading, look and see what actions can be improved going forward. Success is not static and can become better than you ever thought when you are willing to examine how you got where you are, with a look to how you can make the necessary changes to get where you want to be. Again, there are many ways to make and lose money in the markets. It is clearly worthwhile to learn how to make money and how to reduce or avoid losses if one is going to venture into this game. For if you are not armed with Knowledge, it is better to forget the possibility of financial gain in the markets and simply live life on the sidelines. The risks for the ignorant are huge, and in this action, Ignorance is not bliss.
Safety Safety is an illusion. You have all heard and experienced that, ask yourself, Is it safe to walk down steps, take a walk, cross the street, drive your car, sail your boat, swim in the ocean, fly your plane, ski and scuba dive, etc, etc, etc. So it is fair to say that it is not likely to have complete safety in life. In the investment world, highly rated bonds were considered safe in the past, but that has been proved not necessarily so. In the world of stock trading, safety is established with the exit strategy, and like most safety, it is imperfect at best. But it does work pretty well if you have established a good plan. And as a player/trader, you must begin with a clear understanding what is adequate safety for you. This column talks about the â€œPlanâ€? throughout the year, Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan is a recurring theme here. It is your money, so for sure it is your responsibility.
Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power! Again, the Reminder on Risk Risk is everywhere including trading the markets; you must learn to manage risk.
When you seek profits in trading markets there is a certain factor that creeps in; it is the "Greed" factor; then comes the Risk factor that gives rise to the Fear factor in trading. Likely, many bad trades are the results of a misunderstanding of/or an initial failure to pay attention to risk. Once that risk becomes real for many folks, it can turn into fear and panic. Risk means we can lose something we have, and often, traders fail to realize just how much is at risk until it is too late for them One of the most compelling facts regarding risk of loss in the market is that if a position loses 50%, it must then double, i.e. move up 100% to get back to even. It is important to note that risk in the buying of stock in the market is one of the riskiest things on the planet. When buying a stock, the total investment is at risk. And as we have seen recently, formerly great companies can fall to Zero. You ask: Red, Are there ways to reduce the risk of losing my entire investment when buying stocks? Sure, we have discussed them in previous articles. One is employ stop loss orders in place or trailing stop loss orders. In most situations, these orders can work to prevent losing everything. It is unlikely that a stock will drop from USUS$50 to US$ Zero overnight, and most stocks that fail often post warning signs; and while they often fall fast, they usually take a bit of time to hit Zero bottom. In such circumstances, the stop loss may work to preserve capital. Here is another way to protect an asset (some of us call it Insurance). That is to buy a protective Put. A Put option is a contract whereby the buyer of the Put has the right, but not the obligation, to force someone to buy his stock at a pre-determined price, called the strike price, any time before the option expires. To obtain that right, the buyer of a Put pays a premium. The situation is at least analogous to an insurance policy where the insured (stock owner) pays a premium in order to assure that a loss is limited to the premium, plus any deductible. You can learn about managing risk with options, but the major risk in options strategies is that options expire, so your puts and calls only have value until expiration; and assuming no change in the price of the stock, the call becomes less and less valuable as time passes, until there is no time left. Insuranceâ€Ś Another thought that is often espoused is to diversify. There are differing schools of thought regarding diversification and there are many ways to diversify. The above discussion lists some of the ways traders reduce and manage risk in a stock purchase transaction. All of the above is intended to motivate you to seek a greater understanding of Risk and in doing so help you Win. Again, think Education First. For news and information please go to www.livetradingnews.com, www.paulebeling.com and www.ebeling-heffernan.com , www.aseanaffairs.com sign up for RSS feeds on the latest US Market News, ASEAN and World News, Twitter, and the Hot List, itâ€™s Free
My pal Wally Stein’s Words of Wisdom Buy Low, Sell High or at least in the Middle; that’s Wally’s Lullaby Sooner or later, those who win are those who believe they can!
The website has adjusted its default privacy settings following criticism over the way it allows some 3rd party sites to access and share its users’ preferences. And now, the Korea Communications Commission is saying that the way Facebook notified users about how personal information was collected, and went about getting their consent for its use is “inadequate”. If Facebook offers personal information to a 3rd party, it should notify users of the purpose and the period in which the details would be used, the commission says. The Korean regulator has given Facebook, which has about 2,300,000 users in South Korea, 30 days to submit a plan on how it will comply with its demands. The commission said it would impose a fine or take other actions against Facebook if the site does not implement “Corrective Measures” timely. Facebook has also faced questions from German and Swiss regulators over its practice of allowing users to upload pictures and information about other people without their explicit permission. Brussels has made it clear that privacy will be one of its Key issues, and a privacy organization last year asked the US Federal Trade Commission to investigate the Social Networking company. South Korea is taking tougher measures against Facebook at a time when the site is making rapid inroads into the country.
___________________________________________________________________________________ Hot Topics See all of the Latest World News on www.livetradingnews.com up-dated hourly 24/7
China sees Win-Win in equal partnership with the USA China seeks a Win-Win partnership featuring equality and mutual trust with the United States, as the 2 countries' interests are deeply correlated in the era of Globalization, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said. "Relations between China and the United States should be cooperative and Win-Win and not a Zero-sum game," Yang said in an interview in Beijing Friday. Applauding the two countries' consensus to build a positive, cooperative and comprehensive bi-lateral relationship in the 21st century, Yang said China and the US should boost mutual understanding and learn to trust and respect one another. Mutual understanding is the basis for cooperation and a precondition for avoiding misjudgments, Yang said, adding that China's peaceful development is not only in the interests of the Chinese people but also for the World. To strengthen mutual trust, the two sides should learn to respect each other's core concerns and eliminate outdated ways of thinking, said the foreign minister. China adheres to peaceful development and the opening-up strategy that highlights mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, Yang said. China and the United States should respect each other's social system and cultural tradition, and realize that the 2 countries are at different stages of social development, Yang said. The 2 countries should properly handle frictions and disputes through dialogue on equal footing, he said. Yang said the bilateral ties have not been without any dispute but "generally, the Sino-US relations have grown at a steady pace." "We urge the U.S. side to abide by the three Sino-US joint communiqué’s and the US-China Joint Statement. We also urge the US to respect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to not interfere in China's internal affairs," he said.
Yang also said China and the United States should improve cooperation to boost their economy and benefit the 2 peoples. "Protectionism, trade wars and "Currency Wars" will only be detrimental to both sides and cause trouble for bi-lateral ties," he added---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
China's consumer retail sales + 18.7% in November China's retail sales of consumer goods grew 18.7% in November Y-Y, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Saturday. Retail sales of consumer goods stood at 1.39T Yuan (US$208.1B) in November and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in October, the NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun said at a press conference. Retail sales of consumer goods in the January-to-November period reached 13.92T Yuan, up 18.4% from the same period last year. The growth rate in the January-to-November period was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in the January-to-October period. The NBS said urban consumption hit 1.2T Yuan in November, up 19% Y-Y. Rural residents spent 186.5B Yuan on consumption goods in November, up 17% Y-Y. In breakdown, catering sector sales rose 19.6% to 160.1B Yuan in November from a year earlier, while retail sales increased 18.6% to 1.23T Yuan in November Y-Y.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
Germany and India agree to foster trade and cement tie-up The leaders of Germany and India pledged Saturday to expand bilateral trade by more than 50% in the next 2 yrs, while intensifying cooperation on transfer of high technology and the United Nations reform. "We have set ambitious goals, for example, to increase foreign trade to 20B Euros (US$26.5B) by Y 2012," German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters after meeting Indian Premier Manmohan Singh in Berlin. "The trade volume has reached around 13B (Euros) today... there is much to be done in the next two years, but India has a growing economy,” she said. "Despite the economic downturn, we are hopeful that the target of 20B Euros by Y 2012 will be achieved,” Singh echoed. "Only the sky is the limit for our cooperation." The Indian premier hoped that Germany could relax export control on high technology, saying that there was "vast untapped potential” for such trade between the two countries.
Merkel said that there was no trust deficit between each other; on the contrary, the two nations are cooperating closely on this issue. Singh stressed that the economic stability of Europe is vital for a balanced global recovery, adding that he believed "whatever problems face the euro zone, it will emerge unscathed." The two leaders also vowed to push forward together the structural reform of the UN, with a view to seeking permanent seats in the Security Council. Germany and India would also enhance cooperation on higher education and renewable energy and energy efficiency, the 2 leaders said. Singh announced that the two counties will organize "a Year of Germany" in India next year to mark 60 yrs of diplomatic relations, and Merkel will visit India at the same time. Before going to Germany, Singh attended the 11th EU-India summit in Brussels on Friday. Officials said after four years of negotiations, the two sides were closer to reach a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), aimed at scrapping 90% of current tariffs between the two major economies of the World. Turning to the treaty, Merkel said "both sides have to take a step in the direction of each other and be ready to compromise." Singh is also to meet German President Christian Wulff before going back to India Sunday.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
Australia implements new banking reforms Australian Federal Government on Sunday released its new banking reforms, which are designed to hand more power to Australian consumers, and giving consumers more information on loans and credit card deals. Under the reforms, home borrowers will be given a one-page fact sheet outlining their monthly mortgage repayments and how they can shop around for a better loan. "A small initiative but an important initiative to empower the consumer," Treasurer Wayne Swan told reporters in Canberra on Sunday. Exit fees, which can run into the thousands, will also be banned from July 1, 2011 and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) will be given the power to investigate price collusion among banks. The government vowed to change the Banking Act 1959 to allow banks, credit unions and building societies to issue covered bonds. "The reform is designed to channel super-annuation savings into the financial system, in a bid to enable lower-priced credit to households and businesses," Australia Associated Press reported on Sunday.
The federal government has also pledged to spend another US$3.94B on residential mortgage-backed securities to help smaller lenders, taking to US$19.7B its investment in non-bank players since the onset of the Global financial crisis. Furthermore, the government will launch an awareness campaign in early Y 2011 explaining how regional banks, building societies and credit unions offer a competitive alternative to the major banks. Credit card reforms will also be introduced in Y 2011, preventing lenders from charging over-limit fees unless consumers specifically agreed to allow their account to go over the limit, as is now requires in the US. "The Labor government will take action to help build a new pillar in our banking system from the combined competitive power of our mutual credit unions and building societies," the government said in its banking reforms booklet. Shortly after the announcement, Australia's second-largest credit union has welcomed the banking reforms, declaring the reforms will even up the playing field in the financial sector. Peter Evers, managing director of Australian Central Savings & Loans, said the reforms were a "step in the right direction" for the development of greater competition. "It will enable consumers to look for the best deal in the market without fear of being heavily penalized," Evers said in a statement. "This will ensure that all banks, credit unions and building societies continue to remain focused on the needs of consumers." Meanwhile, consumer group Choice said the government's banking package is a starting point for serious reform. Choice's banking campaign director Richard Lloyd said the government had shown it had listened to consumers. "This is a good way to level the playing field," Lloyd said in Sydney Sunday. "Done the right way these proposals could mark the start of a major shift in banking, placing more power in the hands of consumers."---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
OPEC says, "no-change" policy on Crude Oil output OPEC ministers announced Saturday to maintain its oil output at current level while Saudi Arabia voiced favor for a price between US$70 to 80 bbl. The announcement came as a relief for the oil consumers who were worrying that the rising oil price would soon broach the psychological barrier of US$100, thus hampering the Global economic recovery. The developed nations were still burdened with "lower industrial output, lagging private consumption as well as persistently high unemployment," the ministers said.
"70 to 80 $ bbl is a good price", said Saudi Oil Minster Ali al-Naimi, adding that the price were tolerable for consumers.--Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
At the Movies with Monica Petrucci from Tinsel Town
US$67M 'Narnia' Debuts a Top of Int'l Box Office
"Deathly Hallows" falls to # 2, and "Tangled" takes 3rd place; "Megamind" still going strong at # 4 with US$11.7M The holiday season on the foreign theatrical circuit accelerated sharply over the weekend as The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader in 3-D launched at 10,141 screens in 56 markets, easily taking the circuit's # 1 boxoffice spot with a US$67 million haul. Distributor 20th Century Fox said the 3rd installment in the Chronicles of Narnia series based on the religion-infused novels of C.S. Lewis opened early last week at both 3-D and conventional screens in Australia (where the latest Narnia was shot), India and Spain largely to take advantage of available 3-D locations in those markets. Thus Dawn Treader's international take to date stands at US$81 million. Globally, the cume is US$105.5 million. Fox notes that the film has yet to play such key offshore markets as Japan, China, Germany, Italy, Poland, Argentina and the Scandinavian countries. The Walden Media/Fox 2000 Pictures co-production, directed by Michael Apted, took the # 1 spot in at least 32 markets on the weekend with Russia leading the list ($11.3 million generated from 1,284 venues). Mexico provided generated $7.5 million, the 3rd highest opening tally recorded by any Fox title. France came up with $5.5 million from 739 sites. South Korea provided $5.4 million from 493 situations while the U.K. -- despite frigid weekend weather, kicked in $4 million from 1,153 sites. Second weekend Australia market cume stands at $5.66 million; Spain, $9.2 million; and India, $4.3 million. In general 3-D screens (4,584) accounted for 45% of the total venues but provided 66% of the total box office. Fox said this is the first of the Narnia titles to be released in most oversea markets prior to school holidays. "With most of those holidays kicking in (this coming) weekend, we expect to have a high multiple as we play throughout the holiday season." The Holiday season picks up additional steam this week with the foreign opening of Tron: Legacy, Disney's 3-D sequel to 1982's Tron. Opening # 1 in Taiwan (drawing $800,000 from 63 screens), # 2 in Korea ($3.06 million from 409 sites) and # 3 in the U.K. ($2.2 million from 430 locations) was Sony's The Tourist, costarring Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie. Director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck's thriller set in Venice captured $8 million overall in its debut from 1,125 screens in 15 markets, and took the # 5 spot overseas on the weekend.
# 2 was Warner Bros.' Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, the seventh title in the Harry Potter franchise, which had been No. 1 overseas for three straight rounds. Latest frame drew $30.2 million from some 12,700 screens in 64 territories. Deathly Hallows' foreign gross total stands at $520.3 million versus its domestic cume of $257.7 million. Openings in Korea and Hong Kong are due this week. # 3 was Disney Animation's Tangled, which drew $21 million from 4,784 screens in 17 territories representing, says Disney, 45% of the international marketplace. Finishing # 1 in Germany ($5.8 million from 750 locations, beating its closest competitor by nearly 40%), Italy ($2.1 million from 616 spots in its second market-topping round; cume $10.4 million) and Austria, the 3-D animation retelling of the classic Rapunzel tale has accumulated a foreign gross of $76.5 million over three rounds. Global cume stands at $192.1 million. # 4 on the weekend was DreamWorks Animationâ€™s Megamind, which opened via Paramount in four markets notably including Australia (No. 1 with $3.3 million from 256 venues). The comedy-fantasy animation in 3-D, voiced by Will Ferrell, Brad Pitt and Tina Fey, grossed $11.7 million overall from 3,265 locations in 32 markets for a foreign cume so far of $67.5 million. Warner's Due Date drew $4.2 million from some 2,600 situations in 53 markets. Offshore cume for the comedy costarring Robert Downey Jr. and Zach Galifianakis comes to $89.6 million. Director David Fincher's The Social Network, from Sony, generated $2.1 million from 1,165 screens in 47 markets. Foreign cume for the drama about Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg stands at nearly $100 million ($97.5 million). Taking $2 million from 1,093 situations in 32 territories was Paramount's docuaction comedy Jackass 3D, which lifted its offshore cume to $51.1 million. Opening in Japan was Universal's Robin Hood, garnering $1.9 million from 299 screens and taking the market's No. 4 spot. Foreign box office total for director Ridley Scott's treatment of the legendary, 13th century English brigand comes to $208.9 million since the Russell Crowe vehicle opened abroad in May. Top local language title in France was De Vrais Mensonges (Full Treatment), a contemporary drama about a hairdresser (Audrey Tautou) who passes along a passionate love letter to her widowed mother (Nathalie Baye). The Pathe release opened No. 4 in the market at some 350 dates for an estimated $1.9 million. Other international cumes: Despicable Me, $288.3 million; Gaumont's A Bout Portant (Point Blank), $3.8 million over two rounds in France only; Universal's Devil, $21.5 million; Mars Distribution's Potiche (Puppet), $16.5 million over five stanzas in France only; Universal's La Donna Della Mia Vita, $3.7 million in 17 days in Italy only; UGC Distribution's Les Nom Des Gens (People's Names), $3.1 million over three frames in France only; Universal's Julia's Eyes, $9.2 million over 45 days in Spain only; and Gaumont's L'apprenti per noel (Santa's Apprentice), $2.1 million over three rounds in France only. __________________________________________________________________________________
US Major Markets Support and Resistance Points DJIA: Close 11,410.32 Resistance: 11,452 is the November 2010 high
Support: The 18 day EMA at 11,271 11,258 the April 2010 high 11,205 the April 2010 closing high The 50 day EMA: 11,115 11,100 from the July 2008 low 10,963 the July 2008 low 10,920 the May 201 high 10,730 the January 2010 high The 200 day SMA:10,670
S&P 500: Close 1240.40 Resistance: 1313 the August 2008 interim high Support: 1227 is the November 2010 high 1220 the April 2010 high The 18 day EMA: 1212 The 50 day EMA: 1189 1174 the May 2010 high, 78% Fibo retracement of the April high 1173 the November 2010 low 1170 the March 2010 high 1156 the Sept 2008 low 1151 the January 2010 high
The 200 day SMA: 1138
NAS: Close 2637.54 Resistance 2725 the July 2007 interim high 2735 the late July 2007 interim high 2862 the 2007 high Support: 2593 the November 2010 high 2569 the November Gap Up mark on the April 2010 high The 18 day EMA: 2567 2550 the June 2008 high 2540 the Gap Up mark from early November 2530 the April 2010 closing high 2518 the interim high from April 2010 2511 the lower range of the November Gap Up point The 50 day EMA: 2499 2482 the October 2010 high 2460 the November 2010 low. 2434 the May interim high and the 78% Fibo retracement of the April sell-off. 2425 an interim high from May 2010 The 200 day SMA: 2351 ____________________________________________________________________________________
Current US Stock Market Sentiment + Bulls vs. Bears Watching the VIX: Volatility broke below its recent lows last week. Some analysts that I read are calling that action a reason to look for a sell-off in here. As I see it there is not correlation for a sell-off yet, volatility can fall as the market rises, and that is not always a signal that the market is going to sell off. Again, there is no correlation now. We have watched the last several session as he the market drifts higher and volatility drifts lower. I do not see what the Gloom and Doomâ€™rs see, the market has rallied, paused, tested, and then rallied on. I believe that a low VIX is nothing to worry about in here. The Market Sentiment 1. VIX: 17.61; +0.36 2. VXN: 18.77; -0.29 3. VXO: 16.52; +0.36 4.Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.76; +0.05
Bulls vs. Bears The Bulls are at 56.2% vs. 55.4%. Advisors are Bullish in here. Recall that the Bulls rose from 48.4% recently then dipped a bit and are now up again in the strongest Northside since May. The 5 yr high is 62.0. If and when it gets to that 62.0 mark it needs to be careful and look for breakdowns. As it is now there is a lot of liquidity in this market, and that means that the Bulls can charge for a long time. For your Reference: the Bulls hit a high of 47.7% in June on the move off of the March lows. To be seriously Bearish, the Bulls reading must get to the 60% - 65% mark. The Bears are at 21.3% vs. 21.8%. The Bears declined again last week. They are down from 28.3% in September. The hit 18.7% on the low in April, and a high of 27.8% mark in February. For your reference: the 35% mark is considered Bearish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April, they hit a high of 27.8% level on the February leg. Stay tuned... NB: Watching the VIX. It always tells us when we are moving back to a more rational market. *The Market Volatility Index (VIX) measures the volatility of the market. A recent news story described it as "the options market's gauge of investor fear." Traders use VIX as a general inverse indicator of market volatility and sentiment. High numbers mean that there's excess bearishness, and low numbers indicate excess bullishness. The VIX is updated intra-day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), using Standard & Poorâ€™s 500 Index (SPX) bid/ask quotes. It was created in 1993. **The CBOE NAS Volatility Index (VXN) employs the same formula used to calculate US$VIX, which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. This formula is derived from a basket of put and call options. Some are out of the money, some in the money, and some at the money. The resulting US$VXN represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical 30-day option that is at the money. ***The VXO is the ticker created to track the "original VIX" that was calculated using the prices of S&P 100 options. The new VIX uses the ticker US$VIX and is calculated using the prices of S&P 500 options. The fundamental nature of the VXO is the same as the VIX, but it is less robust and not as simple as the VIX.
What to expect this week and down the lineâ€Ś. On Monday I believe that markets will be somewhat focused on news out of China, it will appear at first gloomy but then be cast as positive. What I have been reading and reporting on in Live Trading News is that there will be an interest rate raise to try to hold the fast, hot growth down some, as they shift to a "prudent" monetary policy, and when China raises its interest rate it makes its RMB currency, the Yuan, more valuable, and the USD less valuable, and when the USD goes down US stocks go up, thus extending the rally.
Here is a excerpt from Xinhua, the official China News service Sunday-- China will enhance and improve macro-economic regulation to ensure stable and healthy economic development next year, said a statement released Sunday after the annual Central Economic Work Conference. Next year's macro-regulation should basically be proactive, stable, prudent and flexible, the statement said. The focus will be better handling the relationship between stable and relatively fast economic development, economic restructuring and inflation expectations in an active and stable way, it said. Participants at the three-day conference, one of China's most important economic-policy-making events, agreed to exert more efforts to keep prices stable next year. They also agreed to accelerate the strategic transformation of the economic development pattern in order to make economic development more coordinated, sustainable and reliant on the domestic economy. There is a lot of economic data coming out this week in the USA beginning Tuesday. Both Shayne and I are looking this rally to extend, as there is nothing negative hitting the market now. A Plus is that lots of liquidity is entering the market as the sideline money chases performance among the leaders. Some good stocks have pulled back nicely providing good entry points to rally higher as the Santa Claus rally extends. Check The Red Alerts feature daily on www.livetradingnews.com for the ones that I profile. IMO, if we see a test on the China interest rate rise news, it will then give better buy points on the leader stocks that have pulled back. And when the market continues North, those stocks will start breaking to the Northside too, and players can step in and catch them as they run up with the rally. If you have good positions now and they are solid winners, consider letting them run because the S&P 500 broke above its fibo resistance at 1,228 on Friday and is moving higher. And I believe we will see another leg up in here. So look for good plays to take advantage of that Bullish action. This is Holiday time and that being the case savvy players will take advantage of the push into year's end.
Have a great week, All the best, Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
___________________________________________________________________________________ Red's Weekend Report on Gold, Silver and Crude Oil Charts by Omega Research
The Overall Fundamentals The Precious Metals Complex The complex retreated last week, giving back gains posted over the past few weeks. Gold rose to a new record high of 1432.5 early in the week, and a correction was triggered by rises in US-Treasury yields. That being the case, a further sell-off cannot be ruled out, but long-term macro-economic outlook should continue to support Gold's up-trend. Gold demand has been rising steadily in the emerging markets. The Shanghai Gold Exchange reports that, Gold imports in China rose to 209 metric tons in the first 10 months of Y 2010, more than quadrupling 45 metric tons for all of Y 2009. The Strong demand for the precious Yellow metal is driven by inflationary pressures and the government's measures to curb asset prices. At the 5th China Gold and Precious Metals Summit in Shanghai last week, participants including Gold producers, traders, exchanges and brokers showed that they were all Bullish on Gold's outlook and believed that domestic demand will continue to rise. Inflation in China was a Hot Topic and many officials thought that actual inflation has been much higher than what the government announced. Soaring inflation has lifted Bullish sentiment on Gold. Investment demand for Gold has expanded quickly. While demand in Q-3 Y 2010 rose +16% Y-Y to 153.7 tons, net retail investment accelerated +39% Y-Y to 45.8 tons and jewelry demand rose +9% to 107.9 tons. As China is expected to continue to deregulate Gold trading, Shayne and I expect more investment products, such as ETFs, will be launched in Y 2011.
We are also Bullish on Silver. Stay tuned...
Base Metals The base metals complex out-performed energies and precious metals with Copper gaining more than +3% on the week. On the Upside: views on US economic recovery have turned more optimistic, and growth in emerging market has been strong and is expected to continue. Advanced economies will continue to adopt accommodative monetary policies to boost growth and the impacts should gradually be revealed. The launch in physically backed ETFs should support rallies. The most negative factor in the near-term is further tightening in China but production cut should keep the balance of Copper tight. Stay tuned... Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil price rallied to a 26-month high of 90.76 last Tuesday as the possible extension of US rate cuts boosted optimism on the USA's economic recovery. But, selling pressures emerged as USD rose and speculations on China's rate hike weighed on prices. Over the past weeks, Crude Oil prices strengthened with the front-month WTI Crude Oil contract moving within a range of 80-90, up from previous range of 75-85. Brent Light Crude futures traded higher with prices settling above 90 for a few days last week. Shayne and I believe that the rallies in Crude Oil have been driven by improvements in macro-economic outlook and Crude Oil fundamentals. Global oil demand Q-3 Y 2010 was very Strong and growth was seen in emerging markets such as China. As we enter the seasonally strong period in Q-4 2010, weather in the Northern hemisphere has been colder than normal and demand will stay high. But, the supply/demand balance may not be as tight as in Q-3 as OPEC may gradually increase output. EIA, IEA and OPEC published their latest demand forecasts last week. All 3 Oil agencies revised up Global demand for Y 2010 as OECD demand turned out to be stronger than expected over the past few months and cold weather is expected to lift oil consumption towards the end of the year. Demand for Y 2011 is also revised up, but the annual growth rate remained slower than the prior year. The OPEC is meeting in Ecuador takes place over the weekend, and we expect the cartel will leave production limits unchanged at 24.845M bpd. Note that member countries have been regularly exceeding their assigned quotas. In November, compliance level was 52% according to OPEC and 54% according to IEA's estimate. Stay tuned...
The Overall Technical Outlook The Weekly Technical Outlook: Comex Gold (GC) Gold made new record high of 1432.5 last week, and corrected. The break of 1382.9 support indicates that the rise from 1329 is finished, but there is no confirmation of reversal yet.
The initial bias is now mildly to the Southside for fall towards 1350.1, Key support, but Strong support should be seen above 1329 and bring on another rise. A break above 1401.5 will turn intra day bias back to the Northside for a move to 1432.5 and above, towards 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6.
The Big Picture: the rise from 1155.6 is treated as the 5th wave of the 5 wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be 5th wave of the rally from 681, the Y 2008 low. Note: Gold is close to 2 important projection target, 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 and 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462. Also, the upside momentum is clearly slowing with Bearish divergence in daily MACD and RSI. Therefore, a reversal should be imminent. A clear break of 1315.8,Key support, will signal that 1424.3 is an important Top and Gold should have started a medium term correction that should send it back into 1044.5/1227.5 support zone.
The Long Term Picture: the rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up-trend from the Y1999 low of 253. 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 is almost met and a sizeable correction should be next. Nevertheless, even in case of a deep fall, the 55 months EMA, now at 948.3 level, should present Strong support to contain any downside and bring about another up-trend. Stay tuned...
The Weekly Technical Outlook: Comex Silver (SI) Silver moved higher to 30.75 last week but retraced since then. The fall is contained above-mentioned 27.895 support and there is no change in the Bullish outlook in here. Initial bias remains Neutral this week and further consolidations could come on. But I do expect a break of 30.75 again to resume the up-trend and in that case, Silver the target is the 61.8% projection of 17.735 to 29.34 from 24.98 at 32.152 next. But, a clear break of 27.895, Key support, will indicate that a short term Top is at least formed and deeper decline could then be seen to 26.4 support and below.
The Big Picture: Silver's up trend is intact. The rally from 8.4 is treated as resumption of the rise from Y 2001 low at 4.01. IMO Silver should target 161.8% projection of 4.01, the Y2001 low to 21.44, the Y 2008 high from 8.4, the Y 2008 low, at 36.6 next. On the Downside: a clear break of 24.98 support is needed to be the 1st signal of medium term reversal outlook will remain Bullish. Stay tuned...
The Overall Weekly Technical Outlook: Nymex Crude Oil (CL) Crude Oil moved higher to 90.76 last week but turned sideway ahead of 61.8% projection of 70.76 to 88.63 from 80.06 at 91.10.
The initial bias remains Neutral this week and more consolidations will likely come on, and retreat from 90.76 could extend further South, but I expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 80.06 to 90.76 at 84.15, and bring another rise. A clear break of 90.76 will target 100% projection at 97.93 next. The Big Picture: the medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress, and the rally is treated as the 2nd wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 is already met and there is not sign of Topping in here. I am looking for a further rise to 61.8% retracement at 103.70 and possibly above.
On the Downside: a clear break of 80.06,Key support, is needed to be the 1st sign of medium term reversal and break of 64.23 is needed to confirm that.
The Long Term Picture: that rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet INO. But, my overall view remains unchanged. Crude Oil is in a long-term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with 1st wave completed at 33.2, 2nd wave from there is unfolding still. The current action suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But, should it tap at that number I will then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70. Stay tuned...
Redâ€™s Forex Report of the Week: EUR/USD Red's Weekly Technical Update: USD Rebounds, Euro Weakness Stands Out
The USD tried to claw back its gains this week, it failed, and now further confirmation is a must. The Euro looked like it could hold off the pressure, but eventually the market caved in to the lack of confidence. EUR/USD May Retest 1.3450 Daily and 4H: The EUR/USD shot up to the 1.3450 level as anticipated. There was resistance there, and the market came down to near 1.3150. A break below that indices there is enough Bearishness to continue the down-trend, which targets 1.2970 next. The Daily Chart: I see that another swing will be the 3rd downswing, which could set up for a significant correction. 1.2970 was the previous low, and if that is broken, there is a pivot point at 1.2940; it was resistance at end of August beginning of September consolidation action. If the market drops below 1.3150, the Bearish scenario to test at 1.2970-1.2940 is more likely. A clear break below that targets the 1.2750 pivot. Stay tuned...
Soon to be seen on www.bull-penny-stocks.com Small Cap Stocks to Watch Arjuna Media Inc. (OTC: AEMC) aka Archer Entertainment, Inc.
Arjuna makes investments in independent motion pictures, television product and sporting events to movie theatres, all forms of television outlets and digital platforms. The Movie Industry is one of most exciting and informative businesses in the world, where the revenue of a single feature film, such as “Avatar,” or “The DaVinci Code”, “Titanic,” or the trilogy of “Lord of the Rings” can exceed one billion dollars. The entertainment industry has always been consistently attractive as an investment vehicle for practical and emotional reasons. Through wars, depressions, and good times, entertainment has always paid dividends. Investors from all over the globe, from Sony & Matushita to Coca Cola, to Rupert Murdoch and Vivendi, traditionally stand in line to pay increasingly record sums to acquire entertainment assets, especially films. Arjuna does not and will not produce its content; the company is focused on risk- adverse product development. The Company’s executives are senior in their field, and have seasoned and respected talent and key business relationships, plus exceptionally successful management skills that solidly position them to build a leading film company delivering strong financial returns for investors. Arjuna will seek an initial release slate of four pictures and to acquire a portfolio of twelve motion pictures in its 1st year. It will market these products in the most creative, effective, cost-efficient manner, and focus on making certain that each picture receives the appropriate attention required for success. Arjuna, its related entities and strategic partners, will seek out films for which it can build strong economic models, and which posses extraordinary potential for success in both theatrical and ancillary markets. www.arjunamediainc.com Trading at US$0.07/shr. -.03 Support .04 Resistance .08. The 50-Day EMA is .15 Technicals are overall Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is Bearish Latest News and Opinion: Archer Media Entertainment Accepts Arjuna Media Bid to Take Over Company http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Archer-Media-Entertainment-bw-2195496402.html?x=0&.v=1
Hythiam, Inc. (HYTM) This Company is doing good work and closing in on the answer to addiction of drugs and alcohol through its patented Prometa® therapy, a protocol that is designed to reset dysfunctional receptors in the brain to a pre-substance abuse state while integrating medical, behavioral, and nutritional components. Hythiam has 21 patents issued or allowed and 95 applications pending. Q-1 Y 2008 revenues grew to USUS$11.3 million, with 60% increase in contributions from anti-addiction services. Hythiam recently signed an Agreement with Ford Motor Corp. to offer its services to Ford’s employees worldwide. Hythiam provides comprehensive behavioral health management services to health plans, employers, and criminal justice and government agencies. In May 2008, Hythiam announced reimbursement agreement with CIGNA HealthCare for Prometa based treatment program. Its CATASYS™ Integrated Substance Dependence Solution is the only program of its kind dedicated exclusively to chemical dependence. The company also researches, develops, licenses and commercializes innovative and proprietary physiological, nutritional, and behavioral treatment programs. This market represents 180 million lives, and over 22 million Americans suffer from dependence on illicit drugs or alcohol, with only 18% seeking treatment. Direct medical costs in the US are over USUS$42B. Cocaine/stimulant addiction therapy is a multi-billion dollar market opportunity that was previously without effective treatment. www.hythiam.com Currently trading at .034 +.001 Support .03. Resistance .05. The 50-Day EMA is .05. There is a Bearish Harami on December 10. The overall technical indicators are Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Very Bearish Latest News and Opinion: 8K: Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement, Completion of Acquisition or Disposition http://biz.yahoo.com/e/101020/hytm.ob8-k.html Experienced Financial Executive, Peter Donato, Joins Hythiam as CFO http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Experienced-Financial-bw-100548859.html?x=0&.v=1 Hythiam Raises Approximately US$3.5 Million in Registered Direct Offering http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hythiam-Raises-Approximately-bw-2691700782.html?x=0&.v=1 Neah Power Systems, Inc. (NPWZ) NEAH announced this week that Popular Science Magazine has named their unique silicon-based fuel cells the “Innovative Product of 2010,” which is a signal honor. Neah has developed and successfully tested a patented, silicon-based, micro fuel cell, which recently passed 2000 hours of continuous energy production. The Company claims it will eventually replace batteries. It recently successfully completed a second round of tests for U.S. Navy Office of Naval Research, which has invested US$3 million into the Company, which expects to offer its products to the entire range of the US and global military. The self-contained fuel cell also has a large market in police, and fire departments, and other first responders, including ambulance, paramedic and emergency room personnel, as well as power solutions for notebook PCs PDAs, mobile phones, camcorders, digital cameras and other portable electronic devices. Neah’s fuel cell fits within a notebook PC’s internal battery cavity instead of outside the computer, and uses methanol, a renewable resource, which delivers continuous untethered power. NEAH recently received a cash infusion from Agile Opportunity Fund, and also acquired SolCool One, LLC, and a leader in the solar air conditioning industry. NEAH recently announced a joint venture with Hobie Cat boats to develop a fuel cell propelled craft, and also revealed another with EKO Vehicles of Bangalore, India, to develop a fuel cell charger for their line of motorcycles and scooters sold around the world. http//www.neahpower.com The iHubbers are also talking about Neah. Currently trading at .026 +.006 Support NIL Resistance .03 The 50 Day EMA is .04. Technicals overall rd are Bearish There is a Bearish Harami on December 9 . The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bearish.
Latest News and Opinion: 8K: Change in Directors or Principal Officers http://biz.yahoo.com/e/101122/npwz.ob8-k.html NEAH and India's EKO Vehicles to Explore Merger and Acquisition Opportunities to Facilitate Global Growth
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/NEAH-and-Indias-EKO-Vehicles-iw-3572924924.html?x=0&.v=1 Skymark Research Initiates Independent Research Coverage on Neah Power Systems, Inc. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Skymark-Research-Initiates-pz-3010079409.html?x=0&.v=1
TOMI Environmental Solutions, Inc. (TOMZ). “TOMI” is an infectious disease control company, which uses one of the most powerful disinfectants known to man ozone. The Ministry of Health, in Thailand, has invited TOMI to demonstrate its prowess in eliminating pathogens in a military hospital, similar to its success in September, in a Baltimore hospital operating room, in which it killed 99.999% of all viruses, bacteria, mold spores, and pathogens. TOMI’s technology can be used against all forms of pathogens, including Swine Flu. Hospitals can be a significant hazard to sick people, and TOMI may come to be the only answer to a real problem in healthcare. TOMI remediated a high school in Brooklyn, NY after a flu outbreak, and outperformed any other known treatment method, killing 99.999 percent of all bacteria, viruses, and mold spores, using TOMI’s Ultraviolet Ozone Generators. The EPA reports that indoor air pollution is in the top five risks to public health. The American Medical Association (AMA) says that indoor levels of pollutants are between 25 and 200 times higher than outdoors. TOMI-ES has an exclusive distribution agreement with Advanced Disinfection Technologies, LLC to market their MRA Technology to over 300 Hospitals with its alliance partners. Magnetic Resolution Activation (MRA™) is a revolutionary breakthrough disinfection process that effectively kill microorganisms, is not harmful to people or animals, is non-allergic, inexpensive and convenient to use. 2.4 million people each year require additional hospital care. Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) account for more than 120,000 deaths annually in the US. ADTec's research and development company and TOMI’s complete air remediation for all forms of disinfection for many industries, solves this problem with the ability to kill 99.99% of harmful bacteria, viruses and spores in a hospital room in 15 minutes at a very economic price. Unlike harmful chemicals, the Reactive Oxygen Species fog (ROS) does no damage to any known material. www.tomiesinc.com Currently trading at .0449 -.005 Support .04 Resistance .05. The 50-Day EMA is .06. There is a Bullish Engulfing Candle on December 8. The overall Key technical indicators are Neutral The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bullish
Latest News and Opinion:
Form 8-K for TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC
TOMI Environmental Solutions, Inc. Announces Its First Sale in the United Arab Emirates http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TOMI-Environmental-Solutions-bw-1076426781.html?x=0&.v=1 TOMI Environmental Solutions and L-3 Communications Enter Into Relationship to Commercialize Binary Ionization Technology (BIT) for Bio-Sterilization http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TOMI-Environmental-Solutions-bw-389992555.html?x=0&.v=1 ____________________________________________________________________________________
“On the Watch List” contains potential investment opportunities suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios. On The Watch List
HEALTHY COFFEE INTERNATIONAL, INC. (PK: HCEI) HEALTHY COFFEE USA (www.hcei.biz) is focused on bringing health to the world’s most popular and widely distributed drink, coffee. The company’s proprietary formulas combine the health benefits of Ginseng, Reishi Mushroom, and other top quality ingredients with the world’s finest coffee beans to create a line of deliciously healthy instant gourmet coffee drinks. Healthy Coffee’s products are sold exclusively through its subsidiary, Healthy Coffee USA, Inc., which uses a simple and unique Internet-driven international business model that allows the average person to own and operate a local, national, or international coffee distribution or coffee house business with very little capital investment or overhead. Healthy Coffee is well positioned in the market place at the intersection of three mega-billion dollar industries: coffee, wellness and energy drinks, and has quickly moved into international markets by establishing preliminary marketing offices in more than a dozen countries. Network marketing is the fastest distribution model to bring a product to market, and Healthy Coffee USA’s initial goal is to open 20 countries with a minimum of 50,000 independent distributors in each country within five years, for a total of one million independent distributors. The company’s vision is to bring health to the world’s largest and most popular drink, coffee and to be recognized globally as The World’s Healthy Coffee Company®!
In pursuit of our vision, we will: Provide the highest quality Healthy Coffee drinks and wellness products. Provide an opportunity for the average person to own a coffee distribution or coffee house business without the big capital and overhead, and market globally via the Internet. Provide our independent distributors with a sense of “belonging” by being able to own stock in our public company and know they will be part of the company’s projected growth. Build a legacy company that holds integrity as its foundation, because we believe that “integrity is honoring your word”, and make a difference in the industry by offering a real home to its distributors. Build our shareholders’ value in the company by maintaining stability and improving financial performance. Give back to the community by helping the orphans and poor children of the world. Read the whole Story at: http://www.livetradingnews.com/healthy-coffee-hcei-on-global-mlm-expansion13716.htm
“On the Watch List” contains potential investment opportunities for suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios.
Red’s Rules to Always Play by… Do what they do on Wall St. and not what they say; that means tune out the “Noise”. Some folks like to buy stocks because they are upgraded, or sell stocks because they are downgraded; that’s the wrong approach. Learn how to evaluate stocks for yourself. It is not a difficult process; the steps are 1) check the volume for a buying or selling patterns, 2) recognize support and resistance levels and utilizing key charting patterns. I use www.stockta.com for my data. Knowledge is Power (and Money) Over my 30+ yrs playing the stock market in earnest, I have learned that there are winning stocks that most traders and investors completely ignore and abhor. And when played right, these overly unappreciated issues often lead to huge gains, but it is all about timing. There is no mystery here; you all know and/or have heard about “penny stocks” i.e. those that trade under USUS$5.00/shr on US markets (10’s of thousands of stocks trade on other world markets under USUS$5.00/shr and are not referred to in the same pejorative manner). This is just a label (designed to diminish their value and keep you away, IMO). The fact is that there are many, many studies made over the years that prove that these stocks outperform the overall market, and when there is a steady new Bull Market, the little stocks (small caps, micro and mini caps) lead the Charge. As a class, they are the most undiscovered and underappreciated sector of stocks and the sector where the biggest chance ends up big winners on a consistent basis. I call them Little Gems; they are indeed Wall Street's buried treasure for those who wish to go treasure hunting. Here, in the RedRoadmaster, I work to uncover solid, moneymaking companies whose shares are grossly undervalued and virtually undiscovered, and they sell for USUS$5 or less a share. And do not forget to always include some small, mini and micro cap (pennies and juniors) sues in your sights; they can give you explosive percentage returns like no others.
Savvy traders do not wait for the stock market to hit bottom, recover or get toppy; they do not double down or resort to tricky, desperation moves. They make simple moves on good data and bank some gains. Do not think get rich - think get rich slowly; it works. Even if you know absolutely nothing about how to start making a living in the stock market, and want to learn how to do it, the first step is to learn from someone who knows how to do it successfully. The stock market is about success, and the lifestyle that comes with it, but it must be done carefully, both by picking the issues and in the trading of them, because one wants to make money doing it independently and without stress. You can’t reverse your “bad plays”. Breathe through your nose, count to 10 and move ahead. Go forward, and only focus on what the opportunities are in front of you to win in the stock market game. You do not live in the scrapbook, and always take what the market gives. A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step (Confucius); Download and read and study “Knowledge is Power,” my e-Book, its Free. Always remember that we look at the risk first and decide how to manage it before ever entering a position. Yes, losses will be incurred; it is part of this and any business, and not a bad thing if they are controlled. Again, think “get rich steady" and not "get rich quick" and think Education! The Bull is charging, and this perhaps this the best investing scenario since the early 80's. It is happening now and savvy players and investors are positioned and in the action. Remember to always be nimble and take what the market gives. Have a great week, and stay tuned. Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. aka The RedRoadmaster I am the Co-Founder of www.livetradingnews.com and www.ebeling-heffernan.com. Please check out www.paulebeling.com, www.RedRoadmaster.com and www.bull-penny-stocks.com. Also, you can follow me on Google News and Blogs. You can contact me at Redroadmaster@aol.com Disclaimer: The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. It is designed to help the reader learn the fine art of technical analysis. Links are provided to articles and stories referenced in this Report. Some statements and expressions are the points of view and/or opinions of Red Roadmaster™, aka Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. and the contributors. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. I am not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein has been obtained from readily available sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. I do not receive compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this Report. Please feel free to print and/or send The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices ™ to your friends and associates, no permission is necessary. ©2002/2010 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE OR IN OUR NEWSLETTERS. Red Roadmaster is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment advisor either within the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The information contained on our website or in any of our newsletters should be viewed as commercial advertisement and is not intended to be investment advice. Any information found on our website, or in any of our newsletters is not provided to any particular individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. The information contained on our website, and in any newsletter we distribute, is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments, and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them. Our newsletter and website have been prepared for informational purposes only and are not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. An individual should never invest in the securities of any of the companies’ profiled based solely on information contained in our report. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website or in one of our newsletters about profiled companies is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Any individual who chooses to invest in any securities should do so with caution. Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk; you may lose. some or all of the money that is invested. Always research your own investments and consult with a registered investment adviser or licensed stockbroker before investing. Information contained in the Red Roadmaster Market Report will contain “forward looking statements” as defined under section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Subscribers are cautioned not to
place undue reliance upon these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties outside of our control that could cause actual operations or results to differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could affect performance include, but are not limited to; those factors that are discussed in each profiled companyâ€™s most recent reports or registration statements filed with the SEC. You should consider these factors in evaluating the forward looking statements included in the report and not place undue reliance upon such statements. Red Roadmaster is committed to providing factual information on the companies that are profiled. However, we do not provide any assurance as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, including information regarding a profiled companyâ€™s plans or ability to effect any planned or proposed actions. We have no first-hand knowledge of any profiled companyâ€™s operations and therefore cannot comment on their capabilities, intent, resources, nor experience and we make no attempt to do so. Statistical information, dollar amounts, and market size data was provided by the subject company and related sources which we believe to be reliable. To the fullest extent of the applicable law, we will not be liable to any person or entity for the quality, accuracy, completeness, reliability, or timeliness of the information provided in this report, or for any direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, special or punitive damages that may arise out of the use of information we provide to any person or entity (including, but not limited to, lost profits, loss opportunities, trading losses, and damages that may result from any inaccuracy or incompleteness of this information). We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http//www.sec.gov and FINRA at http//www.finra.org