The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices + ™ Featuring Crude Oil, Gold, and Forex Technical U p-dat es
The Red Roadmasterâ„˘ Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Editor/Compiler/Analyst/Commentator
You can now subscribe to email updates and RSS feeds from Ebeling Heffernan Live Trading News Coming soon: real time Level 2 Stock Quotes You can also follow us on Twitter. Please go to http//twitter.com/EbelingHefferna and join in. Winter Edition # 4 10 January 2011 6.00 am US EDT Dear Reader, You can read my Market Reports, and Up to Date International News daily and weekly on www.livetradingnews.com , www.paulebeling.com , www.aseanaffairs.com and www.pinnacledigest.com as I round up relevant global market news and technical analysis up-dated daily. + You can see many of my articles and commentary on Google News http//news.google.com/news/search?aq=f&pz=1&cf=all&ned=us&hl=en&q=paul+ebeling + seen on ASEAN Affairs www.aseanaffairs.com
Redâ€™s Bull and Bear Trade Alerts Red's Options Trading Alert: Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP See them all at www.livetradingnews.com, www.ebeling-heffernan.com , www.paulebeling.com, www.aseanaffairs.com and www.redroadmaster.com
Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the Week ending 7 January 2011
US Stocks fell Friday after news that a court ruled in a Key foreclosure case and prompted players to exit some bank stocks. The S&P 500 and DJIA recorded their 6th week running of advances despite the pundits calls that stocks are due for a pullback. The S&P 500 found support at its 14 Day Moving Average, which is around 1,262. The index briefly broke below that before bouncing back.
On the Day: the DJIA .DJI dipped 22.55 pts, or 0.19%, to close at 11,674.76, the S&P 500 .SPX closed off 2.35 pts, or 0.18%, at 1,271.50, and the NAS .IXIC tallied up a minus 6.72 pts, or 0.25%, to end the session at 2,703.17.
On the Week: the S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Dow gained 0.8%, and the leading NAS rose 1.9%. Players were cautious after the employment report, which showed non-farm payrolls rose a less-thanexpected 103,000. But, overall employment for October and November was revised upward to show 70,000 more job gains than previously reported. The US Labor Department report showed a surprisingly large number of people gave up searching for work, tempering the positive news of a big drop in the unemployment rate. Analysts said that while the data showed steady, slow progress, it did not meet expectations that had risen on the week. Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) and US Bancorp (NYSE:USB) lost a ruling by Massachusetts' top court, which said the banks failed to show they held the mortgages at the time they foreclosed. The court decision is the latest on the validity of foreclosures conducted without full documentation, and the ongoing mortgage fiasco could prove costly for the banks. The news turned the market lower but some said the reaction was overdone. Wells Fargo shares gave up 2% at 31.50 and US Bancorp eased 0.8% to 25.09. The KBW Bank index .BKX lost 0.9%. The S&P financial index .GSPF rallied more than 10% in December as players searched for bargains at the year end. The mortgage issue has been overhanging banks, prompting an uproar last year that led lenders such as Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) and Ally Financial Inc to temporarily stop seizing homes. On the Upside, the energy sector capped declines as Diamond Offshore (NYSE:DO) rose 4.9% to 70.57 after Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) upgraded the driller. Goldman also upgraded Baker Hughes Inc (BHI), sending its shares up 3.2% at 56.60. FedEx (NYSE:FDX) 93.15, +0.05, and UPS (NYSE:UPS) 72.15, -0.34 saw their shares slip on selling spurred by news of an investigation by the Department of Justice regarding actions by the firms to block customers from 3rd party shipping consultants and negotiators. Both stocks recovered nicely. Earnings season gets under way next week with the latest from DJIA component Alcoa (NYSE:AA) 16.42, +0.06. Immucor (NASDAQ:BLUD) 20.96, +1.65 shares set a new 8 month high on the back of better-thanexpected earnings, but Liz Claiborne (NYSE:LIZ) 6.01, -0.89 missed and that sent its shares below their 200 Day Moving Average to a 3 month low. The USD ended the day + 0.3% against a collection of competing currencies. The "Greenback" gained 2.6% for the week; that was its best weekly performance since November. Most of the move has come against the Euro, which set today a 3 month low of 1.291 after yield spreads widened on the sovereign debt of countries in the EuroZone's periphery.
In Washington DC, US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded a bit more upbeat, citing improvements in consumer spending, and a drop in claims for jobless benefits as hopeful signs for the recovery. The CRB Commodity Index fell 0.4% today. That fed a 2.7% weekly loss, which made for the CRB's worst weekly performance since mid November. Silver prices were among this week's worst performers. The precious White metal fell 0.9% to settle this session at 28.87 oz, which left it down 6.7% on the week. Gold prices lost 0.2% to close today's pit trade at 1368.70 oz, 3.7% lower than last week's close. Crude Oil prices fell 0.4% to close pit trade at 88.03 bbl. That makes for a 3.6% weekly loss. Nat Gas prices were essentially unchanged week over week, but down 0.4% today to 4.42 per MMBtu
Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.7%), Utilities (+0.4%), Industrials (+0.2%) Declining Sectors: Financials (-0.9%), Telecom (-0.9%), Consumer Staples (-0.5%), Tech (-0.3%), Materials (-0.1%), Health Care (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Consumer Discretionary Volume and Breadth: About 8.72B/shrs traded on the NYSE, the AMEX and NAS, above last year's estimated daily average of 8.47B/shrs. Volume was strong throughout the 1st trading week of the New Year. Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by 1,661 to 1,303, and on the NAS, decliners beat advancers 1,644 to 968.
US Major Market Indexes Technical Analysis Date
Snap Shot of Major World Markets DJIA S&P 500 NAS S&P/TSX Mexico Bolsa Brazil Bovespa STOXX 50 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX FTSE MIB Nikkei TOPIX Hang Seng S&P/ASX 200 Shanghai
11674.80 1271.50 2703.17 13272.30 38600.90 70057.20 2808.25 5984.33 3865.58 6947.84 20542.10 10541.00 926.42 23686.60 4705.00 2838.80
-22.55 -2.35 -6.72 -39.37 +11.19 -521.62 -27.98 -35.18 -38.84 -33.55 -95.33 +11.28 +1.91 -99.67 -20.00 +14.60
-0.19% -0.18% -0.25% -0.30% +0.03% -0.74% -0.99% -0.58% -0.99% -0.48% -0.46% +0.11% +0.21% -0.42% -0.42% +0.52
Red's Bull Trade Signal: Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP)
LTN's Pattern Recognition Analyst, Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr, IDâ€™d the start of a New Bullish Trend for Union Pacific Corporation. Shares of Union Pacific Corporation closed at 92.55 last Thursday and opened Friday at 92.93. UNP ended the session Friday at 95.18, + 2.63 (2.84%). The price range Friday was between 92.93 and 95.37. Volume: 4,035,716/shrs is greater than the 3 mo average volume of 2,790,460/shrs. UNP is trading above its 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages. My Technical Indicators augur Bullish price movement in here. The stock's 52 week low is 60.41 and 52 week high is 95.78, its P/E is 18.76, its EPS is 5.07 and its Div & Yield is 1.52 (1.60%). LTN has a target price estimate of 103.50 for now.
Overall Short Intermediate Long Bullish (0.31) Neutral (0.24) Bullish (0.45) Bullish (0.25)
Recent CandleStick Analysis Neutral
Support and Resistance Type Value Conf. resist. 100.03 1 resist. 95.31 3 supp 92.82 12 supp 90.86 4 supp 88.76 6 supp 86.82 2 supp 84.30 2 supp 80.06 5 supp 77.87 4 supp 73.72 2 supp 72.23 2 supp 71.16 2
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__________________________________________________________________________________ This Week on the Economic Front in the USA January 11th Tuesday Wholesale Inventories, November (10:00): 1.3 expected, 1.9% past
January 12th Wednesday MBA Mortgage Purchases, 01/07 (07:00): +2.3% past Export Prices ex-agri., December (08:30): 0.8% past Import Prices ex-oil, December (08:30): 0.8% past Crude Oil Inventories, 01/08 (10:30): -4.16M past Treasury Budget, December (14:00): -$91.4B past
January 13th Thursday
Initial Claims, 01/08 (08:30): 420K expected, 409K past Continuing Claims, 01/01 (08:30): 4070K expected, 4103K past PPI, December (08:30): 0.7% expected, 0.8% past Core PPI, December (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% past Trade Balance, November (08:30): -$40.6B expected, -$38.7B past
January 14th Friday CPI, December (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.1% past Core CPI, December (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% past Retail Sales, December (08:30): 0.7% expected, 0.8% past Retail Sales ex-auto, December (08:30): 0.6% expected, 1.2% past Industrial Production, December (09:15): 0.4% expected, 0.4% past Capacity Utilization, December (09:15): 75.5% expected, 75.2% past Michigan Sentiment Indicator, January (09:55): 75.0 expected, 74.5 past Business Inventories, November (10:00): 0.7% expected, 0.7% past
____________________________________________________________________________________ This Week on the Earnings Front in the USA Earnings Season begins again. On Monday: Alcoa (NYSE:AA) after the closing Bell. On Wednesday: Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) after the closing Bell, On Thursday: JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) before the opening Bell. Click here: Earnings, Estimates and the Week Ahead, NYSE:AA, NASDAQ:INTC, NYSE:JPM | Live Stock Trading News | Equities, Forex For the complete list go to: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20110110.html
The Most Asked Question Last Week The Big Q: Red, will this rally extend further? The Big A: A bit of backing and filling in here would be healthy I believe. (See: What to expect this week and down the lineâ€Ś.on Pg. 21 for a more complete discussion) ___________________________________________________________________________________
Redâ€™s Edge and in the Trenches Reflect and Resolve in 2011, Make Money This is the time when lots of folks voice intentions to lose weight, stop smoking, be more patient with our loved ones, friends and associates and other noble efforts in the New Year. The area that I believe to be of equal importance to those of us who have a keen interest in trading markets is how to better Play the Game of trading and investing. The 1st thing to do, IMO, is to reflect on what was done last year and how well it was done. I believe it will be the common denominator that some stuff was done well and some not so well. That said it would be a good plan to work to be better at what was not done so well in this New Year. Looking into the past may be helpful for folds to put together Resolutions that will bring on positive changes that bode well for future action in the markets, in order to set up for continuing success. The common areas that most all traders/players work on to improve in order to continuously post good Percentage and Money records are; 1. Formulate a Trading Plan for their business; this is a business, though many of refer to it as a Game. 2. Follow and fine-tune the Trading Plan along the way. 3. Learn to Cut Losses 4. Stop Cutting Profits 5. Manage your money; remember Your Money and Your Responsibility. 6. Education, Education and more Education, Knowledge is Power. 7. Last but not least are; never enter a position without a Way Out (aka Exit Strategy)
Lumped into 1 Key Trader/Player Resolution and followed will likely lead to improved trading results. That said, always strive to do your best, use the best tools, be patient with yourself and be happy. Each new day comes with new opportunities, challenges, and changes. All the best, Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. PS: if you look at yourself as a player/trader, and you like doing it, then it is Key to understand what makes you "tick"; plus it is very helpful to understand the motivations for your actions and their timing in the entering and exiting positions. It is very important to strive to remove the emotion and focus on the business of trading the markets to win. When you acquire the discipline and the tools to remove the emotion you are on the way to winning and perhaps winning Big. PE To succeed in trading, a Player needs Knowledge ____________________________________________________________________________________ The Key to Stock Market Understanding We all know that markets and stocks go up and they go down. Players will have winning trades and losing trades. Individual trades do not determine if a trader is a success or failure. A losing trade can be a successful trade if the trader has followed the disciplined Plan and cut a loss timely. So, that being said, and knowing that there will be times of drawdown for even the best trader, how is success measured in this business? Well, one way is to go back and look at steps along the path that brought you to trading. This will likely help you understand how well you are doing. Example: one of the first steps along the path to trading success was your learning how to use the computer, a basic skill that makes the work easier, faster and hopefully better, and it follows that improvements made in the steps along the path would likely improve overall success. Next is, have you completed and do you use a well-defined and controlled trading plan? And have you learned strategies to trade up down or sideways markets? Have you developed an exit strategy, whether you have a discipline to cut losses-whether you are dedicating time to education through reading, or seminars and/or have you structured your time to permit regularly attending to the business of trading? Hopefully you are getting more knowledgeable, as knowledge is Key.
So, then take the time to look back from where you are now, so you can analyze the steps that you have taken so far, looking at what you have done you can see what you have not done as well and that may lead you to improve our trading. You might look back and see that you have closed losing positions only after losses have mounted to the point where you feel hopeless. That revelation could lead you to establishing a more disciplined exit strategy. Instead of waiting for hopeless, instead decide to use the reversal of some indicator, or the break through a moving average as a more disciplined way to cut losses more quickly and more efficiently. I tell people this all the time when they call to ask. So, if you are not satisfied with your trading, look and see what actions can be improved going forward. Success is not static and can become better than you ever thought when you are willing to examine how you got where you are, with a look to how you can make the necessary changes to get where you want to be. Again, there are many ways to make and lose money in the markets. It is clearly worthwhile to learn how to make money and how to reduce or avoid losses if one is going to venture into this game. For if you are not armed with Knowledge, it is better to forget the possibility of financial gain in the markets and simply live life on the sidelines. The risks for the ignorant are huge, and in this action, Ignorance is not bliss.
Safety Safety is an illusion. You have all heard and experienced that, ask yourself, Is it safe to walk down steps, take a walk, cross the street, drive your car, sail your boat, swim in the ocean, fly your plane, ski and scuba dive, etc, etc, etc. So it is fair to say that it is not likely to have complete safety in life. In the investment world, highly rated bonds were considered safe in the past, but that has been proved not necessarily so. In the world of stock trading, safety is established with the exit strategy, and like most safety, it is imperfect at best. But it does work pretty well if you have established a good plan. And as a player/trader, you must begin with a clear understanding what is adequate safety for you. This column talks about the â€œPlanâ€? throughout the year, Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan is a recurring theme here. It is your money, so for sure it is your responsibility.
Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power! Again, the Reminder on Risk Risk is everywhere including trading the markets; you must learn to manage risk.
When you seek profits in trading markets there is a certain factor that creeps in; it is the "Greed" factor; then comes the Risk factor that gives rise to the Fear factor in trading. Likely, many bad trades are the results of a misunderstanding of/or an initial failure to pay attention to risk. Once that risk becomes real for many folks, it can turn into fear and panic. Risk means we can lose something we have, and often, traders fail to realize just how much is at risk until it is too late for them One of the most compelling facts regarding risk of loss in the market is that if a position loses 50%, it must then double, i.e. move up 100% to get back to even. It is important to note that risk in the buying of stock in the market is one of the riskiest things on the planet. When buying a stock, the total investment is at risk. And as we have seen recently, formerly great companies can fall to Zero. You ask: Red, Are there ways to reduce the risk of losing my entire investment when buying stocks? Sure, we have discussed them in previous articles. One is employ stop loss orders in place or trailing stop loss orders. In most situations, these orders can work to prevent losing everything. It is unlikely that a stock will drop from USUS$50 to US$ Zero overnight, and most stocks that fail often post warning signs; and while they often fall fast, they usually take a bit of time to hit Zero bottom. In such circumstances, the stop loss may work to preserve capital. Here is another way to protect an asset (some of us call it Insurance). That is to buy a protective Put. A Put option is a contract whereby the buyer of the Put has the right, but not the obligation, to force someone to buy his stock at a pre-determined price, called the strike price, any time before the option expires. To obtain that right, the buyer of a Put pays a premium. The situation is at least analogous to an insurance policy where the insured (stock owner) pays a premium in order to assure that a loss is limited to the premium, plus any deductible. You can learn about managing risk with options, but the major risk in options strategies is that options expire, so your puts and calls only have value until expiration; and assuming no change in the price of the stock, the call becomes less and less valuable as time passes, until there is no time left. InsuranceS Another thought that is often espoused is to diversify. There are differing schools of thought regarding diversification and there are many ways to diversify. The above discussion lists some of the ways traders reduce and manage risk in a stock purchase transaction. All of the above is intended to motivate you to seek a greater understanding of Risk and in doing so help you Win. Again, think Education First.
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My pal Wally Stein’s Words of Wisdom Buy Low, Sell High or at least in the Middle; that’s Wally’s Lullaby Sooner or later, those who win are those who believe they can!
Red’s Quote/s of the Week: What we are after in “Prospering” is a major shift in consciousness; in the attitudes, beliefs, and ideas you have about yourself and your relationship to money.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. “Promise yourself to be so strong that nothing can disturb your peace of mind, to be too large for worry, too noble for anger, too strong for fear, and too happy to permit the presence of trouble.” -- From the Optimist Creed of the Optimist International Club ___________________________________________________________________________________ In View: The Equity markets have been in a strong rally mode, how about a correction? Over the past months we have seen a strong change in investor/player sentiment as the World's stock markets have rallied hard, and lots of folks think equities are heading higher in 2011. Bullishness is approaching the high end of historic marks on many metrics such as investors’ surveys, net futures positions on big exchanges, and options Put/Call ratios. The majority of equity strategists have Year-end targets for the S&P 500, and FTSE 100 of more than 1400 and 6,500 respectively. Most often when the investor sentiment is this positive it signals a correction is imminent. I do not know if that is the case or not, but it is still worth considering what might go off in the coming year. A Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) strategist Graham Secker, says that the 2 most likely catalysts for an equity market pullback are aggressive monetary tightening in emerging markets, and a renewed focus on EuroZone sovereign debt. In the emerging markets, the Key issue is whether developing markets can successfully rein in inflationary pressures without excessively curtailing growth. Recall that China raised rates over the Christmas and Beijing using tools to dampen the fastest inflation in 2 yrs.
As for the EuroZone, the cost of insuring the debt of peripheral or southern European governments continues to rise, as do bond yields. Last Friday, the yield on 10 yr Portuguese bonds tapped 7.2%. Economists such as Citigroupâ€™s (NYSE:C)Willem Buiter said he believes that there will be several debt re-structurings in the Euro area. Mr. Buiter says that Portugal, with its large current account deficit, high borrowing costs, and weak economic growth is insolvent and will be forced to approach the European Union for a rescue sooner rather than later. But, how much could that be, it is just a bit bigger then Greece's. Other things to worry about are high US unemployment and rising commodity prices; Oil recently traded at 90 bbl and, Gold, Copper, Cotton and Wheat are at or close to record highs. Stephen Lewis of Monument Securities, says that the Key Q in Y 2011 is what will happen to asset prices when central banks end their asset purchase programs. The US Federal Reserve says it will complete its US$600B+ program by the end of June. Perhaps it should be remember what happened last year when stimulus packages started to fade and central banks started to contemplate exit strategies, the market rolled over and did not begin to recover until US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at another around of quantitative easing (QE2) at the end of August. But the likelihood of further QE may be slight due to the rise in commodity prices. Accordingly, the effects of rising raw materials prices may soon be showing in consumer price inflation making it difficult for Mr. Bernanke to argue that deflation risks justify another round of asset purchases. And consider that a Republican-led US House of Representatives may make it difficult for the Obama administration to enact another big stimulus program. But the truth is that no one knows what will happen when the economic, and monetary stimulus is withdrawn from the system. The stock market could reverse, and give short hair cuts to those who believe equities are set for a 3rd year of gains. From a fundamental POV equities still offer reasonable value against most other asset classes, and I believe they will continue moving North, albeit on a wall of worry, on the moderate growth of the Global economy. Stay tuned... ____________________________________________________________________________
Hot Topics See all of the Latest World News on www.livetradingnews.com up-dated hourly 24/7
A growing China benefits the World When I lived in China I learned that it has a long history of pursuing a Path of peaceful development. The Chinese believe that when people work too hard, they should be given relief so that they may lead a comfortable life. Doing so benefits the people of China, and the World. China is looking to build a society where people receive education, get paid for working, access medical services and old-age support, be sheltered and have enough food and clothing and lead a good life. In Chinese the poetic description of that society is "Xiaokang" and China’s goal is to develop it by Y 2020. The Chinese people's goal is for a happy and peaceful life for themselves, and harmonious relations with its counterparts and neighbors. Such development calls for International co-operation and access to markets and resources, and requires a peaceful internal and external environment. World peace, of course, is a Key condition for China to achieve "Xiaokang", and its development is conducive to World peace. It is clear that China’s development over the past decades has been beneficial to other countries, as over the past few years China has contributed 10%+ to World economic growth. Its contribution in Y 2009 is said to be as much as 50%, and the current estimates report that in Y 2010 China’s economy grew by at least 10%, and its retail sales rose by 18.5%. China's domestic demand contributed more than 90% to its growth, and that expanding domestic demand increases China’s imports. The estimated data indicates that in Y 2010 China’s imports will likely be US$1.39T, ranking the 2nd in the World. China's population is at least 20% of the World, and as such offers a domestic market with huge potential. From what we are seeing, China welcomes entry into its markets by competitive goods and services from around the World, and provides a fair and transparent environment for foreign investors. China has stated and shown that it is committed to work with other countries for a solution to the Global challenge of energy and natural resources. Over past 5 yrs, it has worked to save energy and natural resources.
It has been reported that Chinaâ€™s energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product has dropped by as much as 20%. And China's stated goal over the next 5 yrs is to develop its Green economy and low-carbon technologies to significantly reduce energy consumption and CO2 emission per unit of GDP. China relies on domestic supply for more than 90% of its energy consumption, and will continue to rely on domestic supply for its energy and natural resources needs. The goal of its domestic exploration and development is to build new supply reservoirs of energy and natural resources. China has been and is a huge beneficiary of economic Globalization. As such it has taken its place on the World stage for reform of the international political and economic order in the course of its development. China works closely with the International community to promote Global recovery and growth. Most World leaders and economists know that the role China plays in Global governance is helpful in getting the World's economy on track for full recovery and prosperity. China, as a major Global player has arranged about US$4B of debt relief for 50 developing countries, and it has contributed more than 15,000 Peace Keepers, it is an active mediator of regional tension, such as the current ones; the Korean peninsula, the Iranian nuclear issue, the Arab-Israeli conflict and Darfur. A look at the record shows that China has made solid contributions to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, the International Monetary Fund bail-out program, the reconstruction of Afghanistan and disaster relief. It is in the best interest of China to continue fulfilling its responsibilities as a major player on the World Stage. Chinese leader daily demonstrate to the World that will stick to market orientation in its reformation, and give more attention to the fundamental role of the market in resource allocation. At the same time it is dedicated to opening-up and following a strategy of mutual benefit with other countries as it does so.. The progress China has made in development is huge, but it is still a developing country, facing challenges and has a way in building a complete prosperous society via it modernization. Chinaâ€™s development is side by side with the World, and as such its leaders are committed to work closely with other countries to create a bright and happy future for all. An important Chinese salutation is "have a happy day today."
Volkswagen set to debut new US entry
Volkswagen (BER:VOW) will take a big step Monday towards its goal of becoming the World’s largest carmaker and overtaking Japanese rival Toyota (TOY:7203) by lifting the curtain on a mid-sized sedan to be built at the German carmaker’s 1st US assembly plant. The new Passat model, to be unveiled at the Detroit Auto Show and the US$1B plant in Chattanooga, TN mark VW’s latest move to overcome the perception that it has not taken the North American market seriously enough.
VW said that the new car, the biggest Passat to date, “will perfectly match . . . the tastes and lifestyles of Americans”. VW garnered a modest 2.2% share of the US light-vehicle market last year, well behind its Global share of close to 10%, which puts it behind only Toyota and about level with General Motors (NYSE:GM). It's goal to overtake Toyota by Y 2018. VW’s US sales, including its luxury Audi brand, grew by 20% last year, but those 360,000 units amount to about 33% of its growth to 1M unit target set within the next 7 yrs. VW has a 13% market share in China, where it is the market leader with plans to lift sales to 2M units in that time frame.----Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
The regional banks in the US are ripe for consolidation Savvy analysts see that the US regional bank sector is setting up to consolidate in Y 2011, boosted by the Billions of Dollars in bad commercial real estate loans on the balance sheets. To date the banks have side stepped writing down these loans by extending maturity dates. But with US$1.5T of commercial real estate loans coming due in the next 4 yrs, at least 50% with mortgages in excess of current values, such "EverGreening" may have reached a critical point, some analysts say.
The 100 largest banks by assets in the USA have an average of 25% of their loan portfolios in commercial real estate. The percentage is even more concentrated for the smaller community banks that make the largest share of property loans. On the Top of the pile sits PacWest Bancorp (NASDAQ:PACW), a San Diego, CA based lender with US$5.7B in assets that has 67% of its overall loans in commercial real estate. The stronger and larger regional banks, such as PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC) and Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), have less than 15% of their loan portfolios in commercial real estate, and the ratio drops to less than 5% for large banks such as JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and Citigroup (NYSE:C). An analyst with Credit Suisse estimates that in California alone, almost 25% of all banks have nonperforming asset levels that are 2 times the national average, mostly as a result of bad real estate loans
that will depress shareholder returns for many years. To solve that problem, more banks sell themselves, the analyst said.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
Steve Jobs, Apple CEO, takes $1 compensation in Y 2010 Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) Chief Executive Steve Jobs earned another $1 in salary Y 2010, the technology company said in a regulatory filing Friday. Mr. Jobs has received annual compensation from Apple of only $1 since Y 1997. He owns 5.5M/shrs of Apple common stock. Jobs co-founded Apple in Y 1976. Shares of the company rose 50% on the NYSE in Y 2010. The stock closed at 336.12 Friday. www.liveradingnews.com
China's # 1 Gold producer's profit hits 3.2B Yuan in Y 2010 China National Gold Group Corp., the country's Top Gold producer, said Sunday its operating profit in Y 2010 reached 3.2B Yuan (US$471M ), more than 5 times the amount in made in Y 2006. Liu Bing, Deputy GM of the company, said at a press briefing the value of the company's total assets had reached 42.2B Yuan at the end of Y 2010, and sales revenue totaled 51.8B Yuan last year. Asset value and sales revenue had respectively increased 500 and 590% since Y 2006, Liu said. The company said that rising Gold prices contributed to the increases in profits and sales, adding that streamlining the company's operations also helped. At the end of Y 2010, the company's reserves of Gold resources reached 1,300 tonnes, up from 275 tonnes in Y 2006. Copper reserves reached 8M tonnes, up from 1.25M tonnes in Y 2006, and its Molybdenum reserves increased to 1.4M tonnes from 200,000 tonnes in Y 2006.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr., www.livetradingnews.com
Duke Energy set to buy Progress Energy Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK), the North Carolina energy group, is in late stage talks to buy Progress Energy (NYSE:PGN), the deal is worth more than US$13B, and would create the largest power utility in the USA. The transaction could be announced as early as Monday, though it will need approval from regulators, who have blocked several attempted utility mergers in the past.
The US utility sector is relatively fragmented compared with the European Union, but a long-predicted wave of consolidation now appears gaining traction.
The deal between Duke and Progress will likely be a stock-based transaction, creating a merged company worth about US$36B. Progress’ market value at the end of last week was US$13.1B, and Duke was valued at US$23.6B The word on the Street is that the companies are aiming to make an announcement before markets open Monday, though the closing details had yet to be agreed. One Key issue is said to be the future of Jim Rogers, Duke’s Chairman and Chief Executive, who has been the industry’s most outspoken advocate of action to cut carbon dioxide emissions. Duke Energy and Progress Energy both declined to comment.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
At the Movies with Monica Petrucci from Tinsel Town
In North America "True Grit' bested 'Fockers' to Top Weekend Box Office with $15 Million Paramount and Skydance Prods’ True Grit captures the weekend North America Box office crown from Universal's Little Fockers for the 1st time, grossing an estimated $15 million from 3,124 theaters and upping its take to $110.4 million. Season of the Witch, starring Nicolas Cage and Ron Perlman, is the 1st in-house production released by Relativity since it got into the domestic distribution biz. Film was produced by Charles Roven and Alex Gartner's Atlas Entertainment and cost $40 million to make. Relativity says Season of the Witch will be fine financially since 75% of the budget was covered by foreign presales and tax credits. The picture's $10.7 million debut was in line with expectations. Season of the Witch was fueled by Hispanic moviegoers, who made up 36% of the audience. Overall the medieval action pic had trouble getting younger males, with 61% of the audience over the age of 25. Males made up 52% of the auditorium.
Overseas Box Office "Tangled" Tops "Gulliver's Travels" and captures Top Box Office Spot Overseas, "The Tourist" takes # 2 as it passes the US$100M mark. After 7 weeks as an also-ran on the foreign theatrical circuit, Disney Animation's Tangled finally got the # 1 overseas box office spot with a weekend take of $26.3 million, just a $100,000 ahead of # 2 The Tourist, from 3,636 venues in 43 markets. 1st place openings in 10 markets plus strong holdovers in German-speaking territories put the 3-D animation re-telling of the classic Rapunzel tale over the Top. Foreign box office totals now are at $179.3 million from playoff in about 55% of the International marketplace. The Global take is $355.2 million. Tangled did strong business in Brazil ($6 million from 385 situations) and Australia ($5.7 million from 250 locations). Solid business also came from Argentina, Colombia, Greece and New Zealand. Tangled now th ranks as Disney's 15 biggest animation title released, and has yet to play such Key foreign markets as the UK, Spain, Korea and Japan. Finishing # 1 on the weekend in 9 markets (7 of which are new) was Sony and other distributors' The Tourist, which collected $26.2 million from some 5,000 screens in 61 territories. Best of the territories was Russia where the opening tally was $10.3 million from 630 locations. Offshore gross total for the romantic thriller starring Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie broke the $100 million mark ($100.5 million). The film has been playing the foreign theatrical circuit since December 9. Relativity Media/Atlas Entertainment's Season of the Witch, costarring Nicolas Cage and Ron Perlman, opened via Paramount in the UK day, and date with its # 3 domestic bow. The Crusader Knight saga set in the Dark Ages drew a # 10 UK ranking with an estimated $1 million drawn from 306 locations. The 20th Century Fox film Gulliver's Travels, a 3-D adaptation of the Jonathan Swift classic starring Jack Black, which narrowly finished in the # 1 foreign box office spot last round, dropped to # 3 this time with a tally of $21 million drawn from 5,085 venues in 39 markets. Offshore gross take is $81 million. Weekend action was powered a strong Russia bow ($9.5 million from 934 sites). # 4 was Paramount's Little Fockers, which flew past the $100 million foreign gross mark on the weekend ($110 million), generating $20 million from 4,848 spots in 50 territories. Worldwide take is $234 million. The 3rd installment of the Meet the Parents comedy franchise opened in 9 Latin America and Asian markets with Brazil being the biggest ($1.5 million from 196 situations). A # 2 third weekend holdover in the UK produced $3 million from 493 sites, bringing the market take to $24 million. Opening # 1 in China, as per Fox, was The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, which collected $17.7 million overall on the weekend from 6,605 sites in 69 markets, and finished # 5 on the weekend. China opening number is $5.07 million drawn from some 1,300 locations. Narnia's overseas take stands at $242.6 million. Disney's Tron: Legacy generated a 4th weekend gross of $17.6 million from 5,670 venues in 42 territories for an overseas cume of $143.2 million. The global take so far is $291.1 million.
The high budget 3-D sequel to 1982's Tron opened in Italy, dominating the market with $7.2 million generated at 425 locations and accounting for 40% of the overall weekend take. A China opening is due Monday at some 1,600 3-D venues plus 25 IMAX sites. Bouncing back in terms of foreign box office was Unstoppable, which took in $8.4 million on the weekend from 1,656 screens in eight markets. The Denzel Washington runaway train thriller from Fox opened in five markets, the best of which was Japan where the # 1 gross was $3.26 million from 338 screens. Unstoppable's foreign take stands at $66.8 million. Topping the Box Office chart in the UK was Momentum's release of the Weinstein Co.'s coproduction The King's Speech, in contention for Oscar action plus British Academy of Film and Television Arts awards in 15 categories. Opening weekend take was an estimated $4.5 million from 398 locations. King's Speech is also doing royal business in Australia. Distributor Paramount reports a third weekend tally of $2.2 million from 99 sites, more than $22,000 per screen, or a market take of $9.1 million. The film is also playing in Spain and Greece, and the weekend in all the four territories generated an estimated $8 million, pushing the overseas take to about $15 million. DreamWorks Animation's Megamind continued to be a strong draw Mexico ($1.2 million in its 4th week from 450 locations, take; $11.4 million), and grossed $7.8 million overall on the weekend from 5,078 venues in 58 markets. Foreign gross for the 3-D animation is $149.3 million. Also coming in with an estimated $7.8 million was Warner Bros.' Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, which grossed $7.8 million from some 4,600 screens in 58 markets. The take for the 7th Harry Potter film is in at $638.2 million. Warner's introduced Hereafter in 11 overseas markets on the weekend. Director Clint Eastwood's fantasy drama about three people touched by death drew $6.9 million from 881 screens. An Italy bow generated a five-day tally of $4.4 million from 368 sites (including sneak previews), which Warner's says is the best opening market result for any Eastwood film. Fox's romantic comedy Love and Other Drugs continues alluring in the UK (# 6 with $1.28 million elicited from 412 screens) and in France (# 4, also with $1.28 million drawn from 280 locales). Weekend overall provided $6 million from 1,321 sites in 18 markets for a take of $23.1 million. Opening in Germany ($1.8 million from 252 screens), Austria and Switzerland was Sony's Burlesque, which grossed $3.9 million overall on the weekend from 1,100 screens in 23 markets. The take for the Cher-Christina Aguilera show biz drama stands at 17.7 million since opening foreign on Nov. 24. Romantic comedy Morning Glory, costarring Rachel McAdams, Harrison Ford and Diane Keaton, opened via Paramount in Australia ($2 million from 217 locations), New Zealand and Taiwan, generating a total of $2.3 million on the weekend from a combined 323 screens. Other international cumes: DreamWorks Animation/Paramount's Shrek Forever After in 3D, $510.5 million; Universal's Robin Hood, $216.4 million; Lionsgate's The Next Three Days, estimated $15.5 million; Universal's Despicable Me, $290.5 million; and Universal's Julia's Eyes, $9.8 million France and Spain only.--Monica Petrucci from Tinsel Town www.livetradingnews.com __________________________________________________________________________________
US Major Markets Support and Resistance Points
DJIA Close: 11,674.76 Resistance: 11,867 the August 2009 high 11,893, from March 2008 low 12,110 the March 2007 low 13,058 the May 2008 high
Support: The 18 day EMA: 11,574 11,452 the November 2010 high
The 50 day EMA: 11,367 11,258 from April 2010 11,100 from July 2008 10,963 the July 2008 low 10,920 the May 2010 high
The 200 day SMA: 10,759
S&P 500 Close: 1271.50 Resistance: 1278 the 127% Fibo extension off of the August 2010 mark 1313 the August 2008 interim high
Support: The 10 day EMA: 1266 The 18 day EMA: 1257 The 50 day EMA: 1226 1220 the April 2010 high 1174 the May 2010 high & the 78% Fibo retracement of April 2010 high 1170 the March 2010 high 1151 the January 2010 high
The 200 day SMA: 1149
NAS Close: 2703.17 Resistance: 2725 the July 2007 interim high 2729 the 127% Fibo extension off of the August 2010 mark 2862 the 2007 high
Support: The 10 day EMA: 2683 The 18 day EMA: 2664 The 50 day EMA: 2589 2580 the November 2010 closing high 2550 the June 2008 high 2530 the April 2010 closing high 2518 the April 2010 interim high 2482 the recent October 2010 2460 the November 2010 low. 2434 the 78% Fibo retracement of the April 2010 sell-off.
The 200 day SMA at 2381 ____________________________________________________________________________________
Current US Stock Market Sentiment + Bulls vs. Bears Watching the VIX: The VIX, aka "The Stock Markets Fear Factor" The VIX is flat, at historically low levels, and now the subject of TV Show Pundits that are looking for the Sky to Fall, Funny! If you understand it and look back you know or will learn that the VIX can stay low for a long time as the markets moves North. For instance, in the period of Y's 2004-2007 the market moved higher. The problem lies when the VIX is active and the market rises during that action, as we saw in Y 2007 that augured the coming correction. I do not believe that is what is happening now as the market is in rally mode. Do your own work and tune out the Noise... 1, VIX: 17.14; -0.26 2. VXN: 18.72; +0.31 3. VXO: 16.05; -0.17 4. Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.91; +0.16
Bulls vs. Bears The Bulls are at 54.5% vs. 55.6%. The Bulls are down for the 2nd week running after tapping 58.8%. They retreated at year's end. Though he Bull sentiment is still running high it remains below the 5 yr high of 62.0. It is Key to be prudent, careful and nimble, and look for breakdowns, + at the same time know that there is huge liquidity. That alone can cause a continuing move North no matter the high Bull percentage. For your Reference: the Bulls hit a high of 47.7% in June on the move off of the March lows. To be seriously Bearish, the Bulls reading must get to the 60% - 65% mark. The Bears are at 20.5% vs. 20.0%. The Bears are waiting and watching as the Bulls retreat a bit. From my POV that augurs that players are of the mind that the market back and fill and then extend the rally. The Bears are down from 28.3% in September, they tapped 18.7% on the low in April, and made a high of 27.8% level in February. For your reference: the 35% mark is considered Bearish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April, they hit a high of 27.8% level on the February leg. NB: Watching the VIX. It always tells us when we are moving back to a more rational market.
*The Market Volatility Index (VIX) measures the volatility of the market. A recent news story described it as "the options market's gauge of investor fear." Traders use VIX as a general inverse indicator of market volatility and sentiment. High numbers mean that there's excess bearishness, and low numbers indicate excess bullishness. The VIX is updated intra-day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), using Standard & Poorâ€™s 500 Index (SPX) bid/ask quotes. It was created in 1993. **The CBOE NAS Volatility Index (VXN) employs the same formula used to calculate US$VIX, which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. This formula is derived from a basket of put and call options. Some are out of the money, some in the money, and some at the money. The resulting US$VXN represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical 30-day option that is at the money. ***The VXO is the ticker created to track the "original VIX" that was calculated using the prices of S&P 100 options. The new VIX uses the ticker US$VIX and is calculated using the prices of S&P 500 options. The fundamental nature of the VXO is the same as the VIX, but it is less robust and not as simple as the VIX.
What to expect this week and down the lineâ€Ś. There are many of stocks that are up as earnings season get started again, and we still have the US Fed coming in with a lot of liquidity moving into an improving US economy. The market has up nicely for that last few weeks and it may be ready for some backing and filling in here. There should be some Southside opportunities for those who like to play the Short side of the market. This action takes a lot of care, you just cannot pick a stock that has had a good run and sell it. That is extremely dangerous IMO. You have to look at stocks that are getting weak and are being engulfed on their charts There will continue to be many Northside plays on issues that do not report early and continue to move ahead of their earnings reports that are flashing Buy signals. I put them on the Red Alert List daily on www.livetradingnews.com I pick them because they have good Risk-Reward potential from a purely technical POV There is a lot of money in this market and it is always moving around (rotating) and moving into places that generate more money, like anticipated good earnings candidates, those stocks usually hold up well even after the reports. Again, the market has made a good move off of the last earnings season into this on that begins unofficially with Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) , and JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM). See their in-depth report on the 3 Key reports this week at: http://www.livetradingnews.com/earningsestimates-and-the-week-ahead-nyseaa-nasdaqintc-nysejpm-31588.htm There are many good, strong stocks in this across the board rally to play, and the trend is North, but it is Key to take what the market gives.
When stocks are weakening, they make good setups for the Southside plays, and some players are adapt of taking advantage of that action, but it takes a lot of care because the action is often very unpredictable. Take good care and be nimble in here. Have a great week. Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
___________________________________________________________________________________ Red's Weekly Report on Gold, Silver and Crude Oil
The Overall Fundamentals Commodities started Y 2011 on a rocky path, as prices were set by the USD's strength and macroeconomic developments. Earlier in the week, the US economic data released were encouraging, spurring speculations that the US Fed's Quantitative Easing (QE-2) measures might be limited this year. US ISM manufacturing index added +0.4 points to 57 in December. While the reading was expected, strength from 'New Orders' and 'production' components boosted optimism on US recovery. New Orders rose to 60.9 from 56.6 in November and production rose to 60.7 from 55 in November. The report set a positive tone for growth in manufacturing sector in the near-term. ISM services index released on Thursday improved to 57.1 in December, consensus: 55.6, from 55 in the prior month. The services sector represents around 90% of the US economy and the surge of the ISM reading to the higher level since May 2006 sent the market an indication that the US recovery is gathering momentum. Gold and Silver Gold price slumped last week as USD rallied. The benchmark Comex contract fell to as low as 1352.7 before settling at 1368.5, down -3.70% on the week. The impact of positive US economic data on Gold was easy to understand. Improvement in US growth outlook reduces the need for the Fed to extend QE after the 600B+ assetpurchase program ends in June 2011.
Note: QE is money-printing in nature and triggers inflationary concerns in the long-term. One of the reasons that investors fled to gold last year was to hedge against inflation to be fueled by QE. If the need for further QE is diminished, demand for Gold will be lower and investors will prefer for higher-yield assets. Gold recovered in NY session Friday after less-than-expected US payroll growth in December. The metal was also supported by US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before the US Senators. Bernanke said it could take "4 to 5 more yrs for the job market to normalize fully".
He went on to defend the asset-purchase program announced in November, saying that he believes it will spur employment and bolster the economic recovery. The Fed Chairman made no indication that the program may end early, disappointing some investors who thought recent economic data and tax extension may reduce the need for more QE-2+. A further correction in Gold, Silver, and PGMs, cannot be ruled out. Players seemed busy liquidating Longs established late last year.
Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil price rose to a 27-month high of 92.58 Monday as strong manufacturing data fueled optimism on Oil demand. The price fluctuated and settled at 88.03, down -3.67% on the week Friday. WTI's discount to Brent Crude widened last week as Cushing stocks climbed. Apart from Brent, WTI is also trading at wider discounts to other benchmarks such as Light Louisiana Crude and Mars. Meanwhile, WTI time-spreads widened, intensifying the â€œContagoâ€? situation in the front end. Trans Canada, Canada's biggest pipeline operator, has begun filling the Cushing Extension of its Keystone Crude Oil pipeline system which is expected to complete early this year. The extension could bring a significant volume of Canadian Crude to Cushing, where WTI Crude is stored. A number of factors will come alive to affect WTI Crude in coming months. Enbridge said earlier in the week that it plans to shut its Line 6-B for 2 separate maintenance periods for as much as 5 days each in February and March. That may help lowering Canadian Oil imports to Cushing. Cushing stocks dropped -3.5 mmb when the 6-B pipeline suspended operation in July-September 2010 due to a leak. On the other hand, if 6-A pipeline remains full and Crude Oil piled up near Chicago, WTI may lose attractiveness to other cheaper alternatives.
The Overall Technicals Comex Gold (GC) There is still no confirmation of reversal in Gold in here, it is pressing 55 days EMA, now at 1372.8, but staying above 1361.6, the Key support. The upside momentum has slowed with Bearish divergence in daily MACD. So, for now I am staying Neutral and on the alert for a sign of a trend reversal. A clear break of 1361.6, the Key support, will be the 1st alert for a medium term reversal, and deeper fall should come on to 1329, Key support, for the confirm. Before that happens, Gold could have another rise to 1450/62, the Fibo cluster projection level, before Topping out.
The Big Picture: again, the rise from 1155.6 is treated as the 5th wave of the 5 wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be 5th wave of the rally from 681, the Y 2008 low.
Note: Gold is close to two important projection target, 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 and 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462, and as noted above, Gold's upside momentum is clearly slowing with Bearish divergence in daily MACD and RSI. So, a reversal should be imminent sooner or later. A clear Break of 1315.8, Key support, signals that 1424.3 is an important Top and Gold should have started a medium term correction that may dip back into 1044.5/1227.5 support Zone at least. Stay tuned...
Comex Silver (SI) The recent break of 28.81, Key support, and he near term rising trend line augurs that Silver has made a short term Top at 31.72 on a Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Intra-day bias is cautiously on the Southside now, and a deeper decline should be seen towards 55 days EMA, now at 27.65.
On the Upside: a clear break of 31.72, Key resistance, is needed to confirm a resume of the rally resumption. So, now the feeling is neutral on the expectations of some more consolidations.
The Big Picture: Silver's up-trend line is intact. this rally from 8.4 is treated as resumption of the rise from the Y 2001 low of 4.01. Silver should target 161.8% projection of 4.01, he Y 2001 low, to 21.44, the Y 2008 high, from 8.4 the Y 2008 low, to 36.6 next.
On the Downside: a clear break of 24.98 support is needed as the 1st signal for a medium term reversal. Barring that my outlook is Bullish on Silver. Stay tuned...
Nymex Crude Oil (CL) My work shows that a temporary Top formed at 92.58, and more consolidations should be come on, but I believe that rally should continue as long as 86.83, the Key support, holds. A break above 92.58 should extend the rally from 70.76 to 100% projection of 70.76 to 88.63 from 80.06 at 97.93.
But a clear break of 86.83, the Key support, will augur that a short term Top is formed with the Bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. I will also be the 1st alert that rise from 70.76 is done, and will turn outlook Bearish into the support.
The Big Picture: the medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress, and the rally is treated as the 2nd wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 is already met, and there is no sign of reversal yet. A further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement at 103.70 and higher.
On the Downside: a clear break of 80.06, the Key support, is needed to be the 1st sign of medium term reversal, and break of 64.23, Key support, is needed to confirm this action. Barring that I remain Bullish on Crude Oil. Stay tuned...
Red's Weekly Forex Technical Update Last week the USD was in the Headlights The Forex market came back to full force last week and drove the USD North in anticipation of better economic data from the US, the most important one being the Non-Farm payroll. The market stalled before this important release for the USD crosses. Other major themes to start Y 2011 was continuing tears for the Euro, and for lots of players a surprising drop in Gold and Silver. The Aussie S is also making a sharp reversal. The Euro continued to fall, so even if the USD does not get the same boost, the EUR-USD can still fall. Let's look at that Dollar-cross and see how to anticipate the fall out after the initial reactions to the USA's NFP. EUR-USD Targeting 1.28 Daily and 4H: The EUR-USD is more Bearish than other Dollar crosses after the Non-Farm payroll. The initial Dollar negative reaction has already been retraced, and if the market clears 1.2930, it can go lower, but 1.2920 is Key support. A clear break below that suggests the fall can extend to 1.28, and this mark should provide some
____________________________________________________________________________________ Soon to be seen on www.bull-penny-stocks.com Small Cap Stocks to Watch Arjuna Media Inc. (OTC: AEMC) aka Archer Entertainment, Inc.
Arjuna makes investments in independent motion pictures, television product and sporting events to movie theatres, all forms of television outlets and digital platforms. The entertainment industry has always been consistently attractive as an investment vehicle for practical and emotional reasons. Through wars, depressions, and good times, entertainment has always paid dividends. Investors from all over the globe, from Sony & Matushita to Coca Cola, to Rupert Murdoch and Vivendi, traditionally stand in line to pay increasingly record sums to acquire entertainment assets, especially films. Arjuna does not and will not produce its content; the company is focused on risk- adverse product development. The Companyâ€™s executives are senior in their field, and have seasoned and respected talent and key business relationships, plus exceptionally successful management skills that solidly position them to build a leading film company delivering strong financial returns for investors. Arjuna will seek an initial release slate of four pictures and to acquire a portfolio of twelve motion pictures in its 1st year. It will market these products in the most creative, effective, cost-efficient manner, and focus on making certain that each picture receives the appropriate attention required for success. Arjuna, its related entities and strategic partners, will seek out films for which it can build strong economic models, and which posses extraordinary potential for success in both theatrical and ancillary markets. www.arjunamediainc.com Trading at 0.08,+0.01 Support .07. Resistance .10. The 50-Day EMA is .10 Technicals are overall Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is Bullish Latest News and Opinion: Archer Media Entertainment Accepts Arjuna Media Bid to Take Over Company http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Archer-Media-Entertainment-bw-2195496402.html?x=0&.v=1
Hythiam, Inc. (HYTM) This Company is doing good work and closing in on the answer to addiction of drugs and alcohol through its patented PrometaÂŽ therapy, a protocol that is designed to reset dysfunctional receptors in the brain to a pre-substance abuse state while integrating medical, behavioral, and nutritional components. Hythiam has 21 patents issued or allowed and 95 applications pending. Q-1 Y 2008 revenues grew to USUS$11.3 million, with 60% increase in contributions from anti-addiction services. Hythiam recently signed an Agreement with Ford Motor Corp. to offer its services to Fordâ€™s employees
worldwide. Hythiam provides comprehensive behavioral health management services to health plans, employers, and criminal justice and government agencies. In May 2008, Hythiam announced reimbursement agreement with CIGNA HealthCare for Prometa based treatment program. Its CATASYS™ Integrated Substance Dependence Solution is the only program of its kind dedicated exclusively to chemical dependence. The company also researches, develops, licenses and commercializes innovative and proprietary physiological, nutritional, and behavioral treatment programs. This market represents 180 million lives, and over 22 million Americans suffer from dependence on illicit drugs or alcohol, with only 18% seeking treatment. Direct medical costs in the US are over USUS$42B. Cocaine/stimulant addiction therapy is a multi-billion dollar market opportunity that was previously without effective treatment. www.hythiam.com Currently trading at .087 -. 02 Support .08. Resistance .09. The 50-Day EMA is .09. There is a Homing Pigeon on January 6. The overall technical indicators are Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Very Bullish Latest News and Opinion: 8K: Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement, Completion of Acquisition or Disposition http://biz.yahoo.com/e/101020/hytm.ob8-k.html Experienced Financial Executive, Peter Donato, Joins Hythiam as CFO http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Experienced-Financial-bw-100548859.html?x=0&.v=1 Neah Power Systems, Inc. (NPWZ) NEAH announced that Popular Science Magazine named their unique silicon-based fuel cells the “Innovative Product of 2010,” which is a signal honor. Neah has developed and successfully tested a patented, silicon-based, micro fuel cell, which recently passed 2000 hours of continuous energy production. The Company claims it will eventually replace batteries. It recently successfully completed a second round of tests for U.S. Navy Office of Naval Research, which has invested US$3 million into the Company, which expects to offer its products to the entire range of the US and global military. The self-contained fuel cell also has a large market in police, and fire departments, and other first responders, including ambulance, paramedic and emergency room personnel, as well as power solutions for notebook PCs PDAs, mobile phones, camcorders, digital cameras and other portable electronic devices. Neah’s fuel cell fits within a notebook PC’s internal battery cavity instead of outside the computer, and uses methanol, a renewable resource, which delivers continuous untethered power. NEAH recently received a cash infusion from Agile Opportunity Fund, and also acquired SolCool One, LLC, and a leader in the solar air conditioning industry. NEAH recently announced a joint venture with Hobie Cat boats to develop a fuel cell propelled craft, and also revealed another with EKO Vehicles of Bangalore, India, to develop a fuel cell charger for their line of motorcycles and scooters sold around the world. http//www.neahpower.com The iHubbers are also talking about Neah. Currently trading at .015 -.001 Support .01 Resistance .02 The 50 Day EMA is .03. Technicals overall th are Neutral There is a Bullish engulfing Candle on January 7 . The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Very Bullish Latest News and Opinion: 8K/A: Amendments to Articles of Inc. or Bylaws; Change in Fiscal YearI http://biz.yahoo.com/e/101221/npwz.ob8-k_a.html
8K: Change in Directors or Principal Officers http://biz.yahoo.com/e/101122/npwz.ob8-k.html
TOMI Environmental Solutions, Inc. (TOMZ). “TOMI” is an infectious disease control company, which uses one of the most powerful disinfectants known to man ozone. The Ministry of Health, in Thailand, has invited TOMI to demonstrate its prowess in eliminating pathogens in a military hospital, similar to its success in September, in a Baltimore hospital operating room, in which it killed 99.999% of all viruses, bacteria, mold spores, and pathogens. TOMI’s technology can be used against all forms of pathogens, including Swine Flu. Hospitals can be a significant hazard to sick people, and TOMI may come to be the only answer to a real problem in healthcare. TOMI remediated a high school in Brooklyn, NY after a flu outbreak, and outperformed any other known treatment method, killing 99.999 percent of all bacteria, viruses, and mold spores, using TOMI’s Ultraviolet Ozone Generators. The EPA reports that indoor air pollution is in the top five risks to public health. The American Medical Association (AMA) says that indoor levels of pollutants are between 25 and 200 times higher than outdoors. TOMI-ES has an exclusive distribution agreement with Advanced Disinfection Technologies, LLC to market their MRA Technology to over 300 Hospitals with its alliance partners. Magnetic Resolution Activation (MRA™) is a revolutionary breakthrough disinfection process that effectively kill microorganisms, is not harmful to people or animals, is non-allergic, inexpensive and convenient to use. 2.4 million people each year require additional hospital care. Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) account for more than 120,000 deaths annually in the US. ADTec's research and development company and TOMI’s complete air remediation for all forms of disinfection for many industries, solves this problem with the ability to kill 99.99% of harmful bacteria, viruses and spores in a hospital room in 15 minutes at a very economic price. Unlike harmful chemicals, the Reactive Oxygen Species fog (ROS) does no damage to any known material. www.tomiesinc.com Currently trading at .05 -.02 Support .04 Resistance .05. The 50-Day EMA is .06. There is a Bullish Engulfing Candle on December 28. There is a Gap open up on Dec. 31. The overall Key technical indicators are Neutral The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bullish
Latest News and Opinion:
Form 8-K for TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC
“On the Watch List” contains potential investment opportunities suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios. On The Watch List
HEALTHY COFFEE INTERNATIONAL, INC. (PK: HCEI) HEALTHY COFFEE USA (www.hcei.biz) is focused on bringing health to the world’s most popular and widely distributed drink, coffee. The company’s proprietary formulas combine the health benefits of Ginseng, Reishi Mushroom, and other top quality ingredients with the world’s finest coffee beans to create a line of deliciously healthy instant gourmet coffee drinks. Healthy Coffee’s products are sold exclusively through its subsidiary, Healthy Coffee USA, Inc., which uses a simple and unique Internet-driven international business model that allows the average person to own and operate a local, national, or international coffee distribution or coffee house business with very little capital investment or overhead. Healthy Coffee is well positioned in the market place at the intersection of three mega-billion dollar industries: coffee, wellness and energy drinks, and has quickly moved into international markets by establishing preliminary marketing offices in more than a dozen countries. Network marketing is the fastest distribution model to bring a product to market, and Healthy Coffee USA’s initial goal is to open 20 countries with a minimum of 50,000 independent distributors in each country within five years, for a total of one million independent distributors. The company’s vision is to bring health to the world’s largest and most popular drink, coffee and to be recognized globally as The World’s Healthy Coffee Company®! In pursuit of our vision, we will: Provide the highest quality Healthy Coffee drinks and wellness products. Provide an opportunity for the average person to own a coffee distribution or coffee house business without the big capital and overhead, and market globally via the Internet. Provide our independent distributors with a sense of “belonging” by being able to own stock in our public company and know they will be part of the company’s projected growth. Build a legacy company that holds integrity as its foundation, because we believe that “integrity is honoring your word”, and make a difference in the industry by offering a real home to its distributors. Build our shareholders’ value in the company by maintaining stability and improving financial performance. Give back to the community by helping the orphans and poor children of the world. Read the whole Story at: http://www.livetradingnews.com/healthy-coffee-hcei-on-global-mlm-expansion13716.htm
“On the Watch List” contains potential investment opportunities for suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios.
Red’s Rules to Always Play byI Do what they do on Wall St. and not what they say; that means tune out the “Noise”. Some folks like to buy stocks because they are upgraded, or sell stocks because they are downgraded; that’s the wrong approach. Learn how to evaluate stocks for yourself. It is not a difficult process; the steps are 1) check the volume for a buying or selling patterns, 2) recognize support and resistance levels and utilizing key charting patterns. I use www.stockta.com for my data. Knowledge is Power (and Money) Over my 30+ yrs playing the stock market in earnest, I have learned that there are winning stocks that most traders and investors completely ignore and abhor. And when played right, these overly unappreciated issues often lead to huge gains, but it is all about timing. There is no mystery here; you all know and/or have heard about “penny stocks” i.e. those that trade under USUS$5.00/shr on US markets (10’s of thousands of stocks trade on other world markets under USUS$5.00/shr and are not referred to in the same pejorative manner). This is just a label (designed to diminish their value and keep you away, IMO). The fact is that there are many, many studies made over the years that prove that these stocks outperform the overall market, and when there is a steady new Bull Market, the little stocks (small caps, micro and mini caps) lead the Charge. As a class, they are the most undiscovered and underappreciated sector of stocks and the sector where the biggest chance ends up big winners on a consistent basis. I call them Little Gems; they are indeed Wall Street's buried treasure for those who wish to go treasure hunting. Here, in the RedRoadmaster, I work to uncover solid, moneymaking companies whose shares are grossly undervalued and virtually undiscovered, and they sell for USUS$5 or less a share. And do not forget to always include some small, mini and micro cap (pennies and juniors) sues in your sights; they can give you explosive percentage returns like no others. Savvy traders do not wait for the stock market to hit bottom, recover or get toppy; they do not double down or resort to tricky, desperation moves. They make simple moves on good data and bank some gains. Do not think get rich - think get rich slowly; it works. Even if you know absolutely nothing about how to start making a living in the stock market, and want to learn how to do it, the first step is to learn from someone who knows how to do it successfully. The stock market is about success, and the lifestyle that comes with it, but it must be done carefully, both by picking the issues and in the trading of them, because one wants to make money doing it independently and without stress. You can’t reverse your “bad plays”. Breathe through your nose, count to 10 and move ahead. Go forward, and only focus on what the opportunities are in front of you to win in the stock market game. You do not live in the scrapbook, and always take what the market gives. A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step (Confucius); Download and read and study “Knowledge is Power,” my e-Book, its Free. Always remember that we look at the risk first and decide how to manage it before ever entering a position. Yes, losses will be incurred; it is part of this and any business, and not a bad thing if they are controlled. Again, think “get rich steady" and not "get rich quick" and think Education!
The Bull is charging, and this perhaps this the best investing scenario since the early 80's. It is happening now and savvy players and investors are positioned and in the action. Remember to always be nimble and take what the market gives. Have a great week, and stay tuned. Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. aka The RedRoadmaster I am the Co-Founder of www.livetradingnews.com and www.ebeling-heffernan.com. Please check out www.paulebeling.com, www.RedRoadmaster.com and www.bull-penny-stocks.com. Also, you can follow me on Google News and Blogs. You can contact me at Redroadmaster@aol.com Disclaimer: The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. It is designed to help the reader learn the fine art of technical analysis. Links are provided to articles and stories referenced in this Report. Some statements and expressions are the points of view and/or opinions of Red Roadmaster™, aka Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. and the contributors. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. I am not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein has been obtained from readily available sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. I do not receive compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this Report. Please feel free to print and/or send The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices ™ to your friends and associates, no permission is necessary. ©2002/2010 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE OR IN OUR NEWSLETTERS. 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Our newsletter and website have been prepared for informational purposes only and are not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. An individual should never invest in the securities of any of the companies’ profiled based solely on information contained in our report. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website or in one of our newsletters about profiled companies is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Any individual who chooses to invest in any securities should do so with caution. Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk; you may lose. some or all of the money that is invested. Always research your own investments and consult with a registered investment adviser or licensed stockbroker before investing. Information contained in the Red Roadmaster Market Report will contain “forward looking statements” as defined under section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Subscribers are cautioned not to place undue reliance upon these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties outside of our control that could cause actual operations or results to differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could affect performance include, but are not limited to; those factors that are discussed in each profiled company’s most recent reports or registration statements filed with the SEC. You should consider these factors in evaluating the forward looking statements included in the report and not place undue reliance upon such statements. Red Roadmaster is committed to providing factual information on the companies that are profiled. However, we do not provide any assurance as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, including information regarding a profiled company’s plans or ability to effect any planned or proposed actions. We have no first-hand knowledge of any profiled company’s operations and therefore cannot comment on their capabilities, intent, resources, nor experience and we make no attempt to do so. Statistical information, dollar amounts, and market size data was provided by the subject company and related sources which we believe to be reliable. 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Disclaimer Ebeling Heffernan (EH) distributes research and other information purchased and compiled from many sources and analysts. This report/release/advertisement may be a commercial advertisement and is for general information purposes only. Do not base any investment decision on information in this report/release/advertisement. EH is not a registered Investment Advisor or a member of any association for other research providers. Under no circumstances is this report/release/advertisement to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other debt instruments, or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities herein. All information herein is not intended to be used for investment advice. Price Targets are academic theory and should not be relied upon. The majority of these profiled companies are highly risky OTC Bulletin Board or Pink Sheet companies. All readers of this information indemnify EH from any liability for all accessed information. EH will not be responsible for updating any of its information in its report/release/advertisements. EH advises recipients of all such data to be validated from the issuing company including all statistical information derived from SEC filings, from data sources or financial information and data from the issuing company contained herein. The reader should seek professional financial advice, verify all claims and do his/her own research and due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned. EH will not be liable to any person or entity for the quality, accuracy, completeness, reliability or timeliness of information in this report/release/advertisement, or for any direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, special or punitive damages that may arise out of the use of information, products or services from any person or entity including but not limited to lost profits, loss of opportunities, trading losses, and damages that may result from any incompleteness or inaccuracy in any of EHâ€™s profiled companies. When paid in stock, EH its affiliates, directors, officers, outside sources, investor awareness groups and employees may liquidate shares at any time or hold for investment purposes. Readers are advised to review SEC periodic reports: Forms 10-Q, 10K, Form 8-K, insider reports, Forms 3, 4, 5 Schedule 13D, www.sec.gov.nasd.com, www.pinksheets.com, www.sec.gov and www.finra.com. SPC is compliant with the Can Spam Act of 2003. Investing in micro cap and small cap securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk. Investors can lose their entire investment. The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides investors a 'safe harbor' in regard to forward-looking statements. EH cautions all investors that such forward-looking statements in this report/release/advertisement are not guarantees of future performance. Investors should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. This report/release/advertisement does not have regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation, suitability, and the particular need of any specific person who may receive this report/release/advertisement. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall substantially. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested, or lose their entire investment. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The Company has not paid compensation for this commercial advertisement. HCM. has written this commercial advertisement for EH.