Red's Mid-week Gold, Silver and Crude Oil Report
Red's Mid-week Gold, Silver and Crude Oil Report 5 January 2011 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com Gold continues its pull back on upbeat jobs data and a stronger USD, Silver follows Gold futures on the COMEX Division of the New York Merc settled at the lowest level in about 3 weeks Wednesday, as stronger-than-expected US private sector employment data boosted players' confidence in the US economic recovery, lessening the demand for Gold as a safe haven play, and some short-term investors and hedge funds locked in Y 2010 gainers. The most active Gold contract for Feb delivery fell 5.1, or 0.4%, to 1,373.7 oz. The Gold price marked a 3.1% loss in Tuesdays session, the biggest 1 day fall for the precious Yellow metal since July 2010, losing 44 + per oz. An increase in the purchasing power of the USD also lessened the appeal of Gold as an alternative asset. The correction in Gold price offered bargain hunters a good reason to enter, restricting the losses. The precious metal started its recovery during the mid-session. Silver futures for Mar delivery lost 31c, or 1.1%, to 29.198 oz, Platinum fell 13.3, or 0.8, to close at 1,734.1 oz. Crude Oil price rises on lower supply US Crude Oil future price climbed back to above 90 bbl Wednesday as supplies dropped last week. US commercial Oil supplies fell 1.2% to 335.3M bbls last week, according to the US Energy Department. The total is about 2.4% above one year-ago levels. Crude Oil supplies have dropped in the past 8 weeks or so, returning to a level that is closer to normal than it was early last fall. Light, Sweet Crude for Feb delivery rose 92c to 90.30 bbl on New York Merc.
The Overall Technical Outlooks Comex Gold (GC) Gold fell 1424.4 to as low as 1375 before stabilizing around the lower trend line support. The Southside momentum has been clearly diminishing with Bearish divergence in daily MACD.IMO there is no confirmation of reversal in here, as Gold is trading above 55 days EMA, now at 1371. The recent up-trend could continue and a break above 1424.4 will target 1450/62, the cluster projection mark next. A clear break of 1361.6, Key support, will be the 1st signal of medium term reversal and a deeper fall should be seen towards 1329, the Key support, for confirmation. The Big Picture: the rise from 1155.6 is treated as the 5th wave of the 5 wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be 5th wave of the rally from 681, the Y 2008 low. Note: Gold is close to two important projection targets, 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 and 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462. The upside momentum has slowed with Bearish divergence in the daily MACD and RSI. So, a reversal should be coming soon. A clear break of 1315.8, Key support, will signal that 1424.3 is an important Top and Gold would have started a medium term correction that send it back into the 1044.5/1227.5
support level. Stay tuned...
Comex Silver (SI) Intra-day bias in Silver Neutral in here. Note:with 28.81 support intact, there is no confirmation of Topping yet, and rally could continue. A clear break above 31.72 will target 61.8% projection of 17.735 to 29.34 from 24.98 at 32.152 next. But, a break of 28.81, the Key support, will indicate that a medium term Top may be formed on a Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and so a deeper decline would be seen to the 55 days EMA now standing at 27.522 first. The Big Picture: Silver's up-trend is intact, and this rally off 8.4 is treated as resumption of the rise from the Y 2001 low of 4.01. Silver's target is the 161.8% projection of 4.01, the Y 2001 low to 21.44, the Y 2008 high, from 8.4, the Y 2008 low at 36.6 next. On the Downside: a clear break of 24.98, Key support, is needed to be the 1st signal of a medium term reversal. That being said, my outlook for Silver is Bullish. Stay tuned...
Nymex Crude Oil (CL) The break of 89.05, the minor support< indicates that a temporary Top is likely formed at 92.58 and intraday bias is mildly on the Southside for a further fall. This rally is still in likley to continue as long as 86.83 support holds. A clear break above 92.58 should extend the rise from 70.76 to 100% projection of 70.76 to 88.63 from 80.06 at 97.93. But, a break of 86.83, Key support, will indicate that a short term Top has formed with the Bearish divergence condition in 4 hrs MACD. Also, this will be the 1st signal that rise from 70.76 has finished and will turn outlook Bearish to target this support level. The Big Picture: the whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress. This rally is treated as the 2nd wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. A 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 has already been met, and there is no sign of a reversal yet. Moreover this rise could still seek the 61.8% retracement at 103.70 and possibly higher.
On the Downside: a clear break of 80.06, Key support, will be the 1st sign of a medium term reversal,and clear break of 64.23 is needed to confirm that action. Barring that my outlook will remain Bullish on Crude Oil. Stay tuned...
Have a great week, and stay tuned. Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. aka The RedRoadmaster I am the Co-Founder of www.livetradingnews.com and www.ebeling-heffernan.com. Please check out www.paulebeling.com, www.RedRoadmaster.com and www.bull-penny-stocks.com. Also, you can follow me on Google News and Blogs. You can contact me at Redroadmaster@aol.com Disclaimer: The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. It is designed to help the reader learn the fine art of technical analysis. Links are provided to articles and stories referenced in this Report. Some statements and expressions are the points of view and/or opinions of Red Roadmaster™, aka Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. and the contributors. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. I am not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein has been obtained from readily available sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. I do not receive compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this Report. Please feel free to print and/or send The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices ™ to your friends and associates, no permission is necessary.
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