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The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Re-cap + Stock Talk ™

11 November 2009

Date Line: Hong Kong (SAR) China

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Red Alert: DJIA at 2009 HIgh Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the session ending 10 November 2009 US stocks closed mixed on the day The DJIA posed a small gain and set a 13 month high The DJIA gained 20.03 pts, or 0.20%, to close at 10,246.97, the S&P 500 lost 0.07 pt, or 0.01%, to close at 1,093.01, and the NAS was minus 2.98 pts, or 0.14%, to end the session at 2,151.08. Shares of Dow component American Express Co rose 1.6% to US$39.68/shr after the company said credit card spending increased in October from September in another sign that the worst of the financial crisis may be over for the largest US credit-card company. Monsanto Co. shares rose 5.2% to US$73.66/shr after the company said it had raised expectations for accelerated launches of new products. American International Group rose 3.9% to US$37.59/shr after ratings agency Moody's Investors Service said the insurer will likely be able to repay the government's bailout and much of its preferred equity stake. Shares of online travel agency Priceline.com jumped 17.6% to US$204.22/shr a day after the company reported earnings that beat forecasts. Volume and Breadth: Trade was light on the NYSE, with 1.07B/shrs changing hands, below last year's estimated daily average of 1.49B/shrs, and on the NAS, about 2.01B/shrs traded, below last year's daily average of 2.28B/shrs. Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a ratio of about 3 to 2, and on the NAS, about two stocks fell for every one that rose. Stocks to Watch Today Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Walt Disney Company (DIS), J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP), and Kohls Corporation (KSS).


Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Up-date 2

Last Look: July 16, 2009

November 11, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst Today let’s look at Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), a worldwide distributor of semiconductor fabrication equipment, from a Technical POV. The overall indicators, after Tuesday’s (November 10, 2009) market action, are Neutral; in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral. The Recent Candle Stick Analysis is: Very Bearish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News and Opinion: Applied Materials Acquires Advent Solar http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10624889/1/applied-materials-acquires-adventsolar.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA


Tuesday’s Market Action: Close 13.00

+ .02

Volume 21,517,600/shrs

There is a Bearish DOJI Star on November 6 and no Gaps open up or down on the Chart, the near term resistance is 13.12, support at 12.85, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 12.90. This is Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT): Applied Materials Inc. is a global leader in nanomanufacturing technology solutions with a broad portfolio of innovative equipment, service and software products for the fabrication of semiconductor chips, flat panel displays, solar photovoltaic cells, flexible electronics and energy efficient glass. Competitive Landscape Demand for machinery depends strongly on the health of the US economy and various subsectors such as the construction industry. The profitability of individual companies is tied to engineering expertise and efficient production operations. Small companies can compete effectively if they produce machinery with unique characteristics. The industry is capital-intensive and fairly automated: average annual revenue per worker is about US$225,000. Industrial Machinery Manufacturing Industry Forecast The output of US agriculture, construction, mining, oilfield, and metalworking machinery; as well as special, general, service, and miscellaneous industry machinery is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Applied Materials Inc. (HQ) Chairman, President, and CEO Michael R. Splinter 3050 Bowers Avenue PO Box 58039 Santa Clara, CA 95052-8039 Phone: 408-727-5555 Fax: 408-748-9943 http://www.appliedmaterials.com


The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Up-date 7

Last Look: June 18, 2009

November 10, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst Today let’s look at The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Mickey’s World, from a Technical POV. The overall indications,after Tuesday’s (November 10, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bearish

**Chart: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News and Opinion: TradingMarkets 7 Stocks You Need to Know for Today http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TradingMarkets-7-Stocks-You-tm-1888602041.html?x=0&.v=1


Tuesday’s Market Action Close 29.12 + .12 Volume 16,938,100/shrs There is a Bearish Harami on November 6, and four Gaps open up between July 15, and November 4, 2009 at 23.21/27.90, support is 28.49, the near term resistance 29.87 and the 50 day exponential moving average at 27.03. This is The Walt Disney Company (DIS): The King of the Magic Kingdom is a mouse, we all know him as Mickey. The Walt Disney Company is the world's #2 media conglomerate, # 1 is Time Warner (TWX) with assets encompassing movies, music, publishing, television, and theme parks. Disney’s TV holdings include the ABC TV network + 10 broadcast stations, and a portfolio of cable networks including ABC Family, A&E Television Networks (37%-owned), and ESPN (80%). Walt Disney Studios produces films through imprints; Walt Disney Pictures, Touchstone, Pixar, and Miramax. In addition, Walt Disney Parks and Resorts is one of the top theme park operators in the world, we all know them as Walt Disney World and Disneyland Resorts. Disney competitors are primarily in the Film & Video industry, DIS also competes in the Internet Content Providers, Music, and Publishing sectors, the competition is; CBS Corp, News Corp, and Time Warner. The Competitive Landscape In the motion picture production and distribution sector consumer spending drives demand. The profitability of individual companies depends on creativity, marketing, and distribution. Large companies have the advantages of long term contracts with key actors and directors, a permanent staff of technical employees, and wide distribution networks. Small companies compete by creating marketable movies, often for niche audiences, on low budgets. Although production work is labor-intensive, the value of the product results in high average annual industry revenue of US$300,000 per employee. The Walt Disney Company (HQ) Robert A. Iger, President, CEO, and Director 500 S. Buena Vista St. Burbank, CA 91521-9722 United States Phone: 818-560-1000 Fax: 818-560-1930 http://disney.go.com/


J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

First Look

November 11, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst Today, let’s look at J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP), the US Department Store and Catalogue chain, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesday’s (November 10, 2009) market action, are: Neutral: in the near term Bearish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis: Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News and Opinion: Department Stores Become Turnaround Plays http://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/login/rm_mbp_yho_wads.jsp?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=PREMIUM&cm_ite=003190&flowid=b4221e84c2&url=http://www.thes treet.com/p/_yahoo/rmoney/retail/10624157.html


Tuesday’s Market Action Close 31.15

- .09

Volume 4,147,700/shrs

There is a Homing Pigeon on November 6 and one Gap open on July 15, 2009 at 27.17/27.32 , the near term resistance is 32.17 , support at 30.90 , and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 33.09. This is J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP): the Company, through its subsidiary, J. C. Penney Corporation, Inc., operates a network of department stores in the United States, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. It primarily offers family apparel and footwear, accessories, fine and fashion jewelry, beauty products, and home furnishings. The company’s department stores also provide styling salon, optical, portrait photography, and custom decorating services. The company sells merchandise and services to consumers through its department stores and Internet/catalog channels. As of January 31, 2009, J. C. Penney Company operated 1,093 JCPenney department stores. It also owns and operates four Internet/catalog fulfillment centers and five regional warehouses. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Plano, Texas.

Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by consumer income and demographics. The profitability of individual companies depends on the correct assessment of repayment likelihood and effective collections activities. Large companies have an advantage in the ability to manage large portfolios of mortgage, auto, and credit card loans through sophisticated computer risk modeling. Small companies can compete effectively in the cash lending or sales finance segments, where a local or neighborhood presence is highly effective. The industry is capital-intensive; annual revenue per worker is about US$430,000.

Business Challenges Predatory Lending Regulations - Consumer finance companies need to comply with state regulations against subprime "predatory" lending practices (high interest rates and fees, deceptive advertising, and contracts that confuse borrowers) because they often make credit available to consumers with poor or thin credit who may have limited financial sophistication. The industry is affected by punitive damages in class action lawsuits from claims of predatory lending or deceptive marketing. The industry may be subject to increased state and federal regulations, especially about allowable interest rate spreads and add-on products. Vulnerability to Economic Slowdowns - Consumer finance companies are more vulnerable to financial losses during economic slowdowns, when delinquencies, bankruptcies, and foreclosures are disproportionately higher for subprime borrowers. During the recession of the late 2000s, job losses caused delinquencies and foreclosures to skyrocket. Lower income consumers, the primary customers of finance companies, are most likely to have financial difficulties during a recession or periods of high inflation. Industries Where J. C. Penney Company Competes Retail Department Stores(primary) Apparel & Accessories Retail Nonstore Retail Financial Services Lending

J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (HQ)


Myron E. Ullman III, Exec. Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer, 6501 Legacy Drive Plano, TX 75024 United States Phone: 972-431-1000 Fax: 972-431-1362 http://www.jcpenney.com


Kohls Corporation (KSS) Up-date 1

Last Look: October 12, 2009

November 11, 2009

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst Today, let’s look at Kohls Corporation (KSS): the US department store operator, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesday’s (November 10, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Bearish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral. The recent candlestick analysis is: Very Bearish

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News and Opinion: Take Your Position: Retail Earnings http://www.cnbc.com/id/33842709/site/14081545?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo


Tuesday’s Market Action Close 56.36

- .61

Volume 3,347,500/shrs

There is a Bearish Harami on November 10, and two Gaps open up between June 15 and September 3, 2009 at 44.67/52.17, the near term resistance is 56.,63, support at 54.49, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 56.28. This is Kohl’s Corporation (KSS): The Company operates department stores in the United States. Its stores feature private, exclusive, and national brand apparel, footwear, accessories, soft home products, and house wares targeted to middle-income customers. As of January 31, 2009, it operated 1,004 stores located in 48 states. The company also offers on-line shopping on its Web site at Kohls.com. Kohl’s Corporation was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

Competitive Landscape Personal income and fashion trends drive demand for clothing. The profitability of individual companies

depends heavily on effective merchandising and marketing. Large companies can offer wide selections of clothing and have advantages in purchasing, distribution, and marketing. Small stores can compete by offering unique merchandise, targeting a specific demographic, providing superior customer service, or serving a local market. The industry is labor-intensive: annual revenue per worker is about US$130,000.

Business Challenges Demand Depends on the Economy - Consumers buy more clothing when they have more disposable income and the economy is healthy. Under recessionary conditions, clothing stores sales can slow significantly. Economic factors that drive consumer spending, including personal income, consumer confidence, and credit availability, affect demand. When money is tight, consumers often cut discretionary purchases, including clothing and accessories. Competition from Mass Merchants - The rapid expansion of mass merchants like Wal-Mart and Target has pressured clothing retailers at the lower and middle segments of the market. By selling stylish clothes and accessories at low prices, mass merchants attract consumers looking for fashion and value. Many industry experts credit mass merchants for creating the "cheap chic" clothing category. These stores also offer one-stop shopping by selling other products besides clothes. Industries Where Kohl's Competes

Retail Department Stores (primary) Apparel & Accessories Retail Cosmetics, Beauty Supply & Perfume Retail Home Furnishings & Housewares Retail Nonstore Retail Kohl's Corp. (HQ) Kevin Mansell, Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer and President N 56 W 17000 Ridgewood Drive Menomonee Falls, WI 53051 United States Phone: 262-703-7000 Fax: 262-703-6143 http://www.kohls.com


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