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The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices + ™ Featuring Crude Oil, Gold, and Forex Technical Up-dates

Vol. 091310 # 1 Copyright 13 September 2010

Date Line: Hong Kong (SAR) China

The Red Roadmaster™ Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Editor/Compiler/Analyst/Commentator You can now subscribe to email updates and RSS feeds from Ebeling Heffernan Live Trading News Coming soon: real time Level 2 Stock Quotes You can also follow us on Twitter. Please go to http// and join in. Summer Edition # 13 (The Last Summer Edition) September 13, 2010 6.00 am US EDT Dear Reader, You can read my timely Market Reports, and Up to Date International News daily and weekly on , , and as I round up relevant global market news and technical analysis up-dated daily. + You can see many of my articles and commentary on Google News http// aq=f&pz=1&cf=all&ned=us&hl=en&q=paul+ebeling + now on Now Up and Running: , Have a look, please. Also seen on ASEAN Affairs Red’s Bull & Bear Trade Alert’s Bull Trade Alerts: Nucor Corporation (NUE), and First Solar (FSLR) Red's Bullish Moving Average "Crossover" Alert: Compuware Corporation (CPWR) Red's Bullish Moving Average "Crossover" Alert: Compuware Corporation (CPWR) (See Below) 1

See them all at, ,, and Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the Week ending 10 September 2010 Red's Bull Alert: Stocks are in the upper end of their trading range, and we here at LTN believe that the US market is setting up to move North, and are looking at the 1,130 level on the S&P 500 as its breakout mark, and a break through 1,130 could take the S&P 500 up to 1,250 by year's end. On the Day: The DJIA .DJI added 47.53 pts, or 0.46%, to close at 10,462.77, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 5.37 pts, or 0.49%, to close at 1,109.55, and the NAS .IXIC tallied up a + 6.28 pts, or 0.28%, to end the week at 2,242.48. On the Week: the Dow closed up 0.1%, the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, and the NAS rose 0.4%. The technology heavy NAS has risen for 6 of the last 7 trading days. The DJIA and the S&P 500 closed the week with their 7th gainer in 8 sessions telling us that players' fears about the US economy are subsiding. The gains were made on the lightest trade volume of the year to date. The S&P 500 has rallied almost 6% since the end of August. The improvement in economic data continued Friday as US wholesale inventories rose by the largest amount in 2 yrs in July. Energy companies gained as Crude Oil futures rose 3% to US$76.55 bbl after the forced shutdown of the biggest pipeline supplying Canadian Crude Oil to refineries in the US Midwest, and to a Key storage hub in Oklahoma. The PHLX oil services sector index .OSX gained 2.8%. But the technology sector limited gains and the NAS came under some pressure after National Semiconductor Corp (NSM) and Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) issued weak quarterly financial targets, highlighting continued stress in the sector. National Semi tumbled 6.4%, and TI gave up 0.6%. The PHLX semiconductor index .SOX fell 1.4%. On the NAS, cell phone chip supplier Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) was the biggest loser, falling 1.2% to US$40.42/shr. Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) gained 0.8% to US$78.20/shr and National Oilwell Varco Inc (NOV) added 3% to US$41.10/shr. Shares of Lululemon Athletica (LULU 40.23, +4.38) traded higher by more than 12% after the company announced better-than-expected Q-2 Y 2010 results on both the top and bottom lines. Other companies in the athletic wear space have seen a small bid as a result of Lululemon's earnings. Those stocks include Under Armour (UA 40.10, +0.50), Gildan Activewear (GIL 28.54, +0.16), and V.F. Corporation (VFC 75.28) The CRB Commodity Index finished 0.7% higher with 11 of the 19 CRB components in negative territory. The Top 3 performers were in the energy sector. Dec Corn futures gained 1.7% today, closing at US$4.7875 following bullish data from the USDA this morning. Dec Wheat closed 0.2% higher at US$7.395, while Nov Soybeans ended 1.3% lower at US$10.3275. Oct Crude Oil futures closed higher by 2.5% to US$76.45 bbl, after trending higher all session. Highs of US$76.59 bbl were put in late in the session, which is where the energy component closed today. Oct Nat Gas closed down 1.4% to US$3.88 and had a similar pattern as crude today. Nat Gas began to rally about an hour before pit trading began and this continued until it hit session highs of US$3.94 per MMBtu. By the end of the day, Nat Gas finished just under this level. Precious metals finished the day a bit lower. . Dec Silver closed lower by 2

0.5% to UD$19.84 oz, but it just under its 26 months high. Dec Gold ended lower by 0.2% to US$1248.00 oz after a volatile session. Gold fell sharply around the open, hitting session lows of US$1237.90 oz. The precious Yellow metal recovered back into positive territory, but once again couldn't hold the gains. Advancing Sectors: Energy (+1.0%), Health Care (+0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.9%), Industrials (+0.7%), Materials (+0.7%), Consumer Staples (+0.6%), Telecom (+0.2%), Financials (+0.1%), Tech (+0.1%) Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.5%) Volume and Breadth: The major Indexes traded in a low-volume, tight range this week shortened by the Labor Day holiday and with trading desks reduced in numbers because of the Jewish New Year celebrations Thursday and Friday. Combined volume on the NYSE, the AMEX and NAS was 5.68b/shrs, below last year's daily average of 9.65B/shrs. Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 2 to 1, and on the NAS, about 5 stocks rose for each 4 that fell. US Major Market Indexes Technical Analysis




Technical Analysis






Neutral (0.15)






Neutral (0.21)






Neutral (0.19)



Snap Shot of the World's Major Markets



























FTSE100 5,494.16 Updated 0700 BJT (Sept. 10)

Index DJIA NAS S&P 500

Started Week 10447.93 2233.75 1104.51

Ended Week 10462.77 2242.48 1109.55

Change 14.84 8.73 5.04

% Change 0.1 0.4 0.5

YTD % 0.3 -1.2 -0.5


Russell 2000






Red's Bull Trade Alert: Nucor Corporation (NUE) 09/07/2010 LTN's Pattern Recognition Analyst, Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr, ID'd the start of a New Bullish Trend for Nucor Corporation. Nucor Corporation (NUE) closed at US$38.68 in last Friday's session and opened today at US$38.51. NUE traded at US$39.48, up US$0.93 (2.07%) in today's session. The low on the day was US$38.41 and the high was US$39.73. The trade volume of 2,597,437/shrs is below the average volume of 3,911,600/shrs. NUE is trading above its 50 Day Moving Average and below its 200 Day Moving Average. Technical Indicators for the stock augur Bullish price movement in here. The stock's 52 week low is US$35.71 and 52 week high is US$51.08. The stock has a P/E ratio of 81.78 and a dividend yield of 3.70%. Analysis

Overall Short Intermediate Long Neutral (-0.08) Neutral (0.04) Neutral (0.00) Bearish (-0.28)

Support and Resistance resist. resist. resist. resist. resist. resist. resist. supp supp

47.71 46.97 46.27 44.62 43.97 43.04 40.44 38.47 36.38

2 2 4 2 4 2 11 25 2

_________________________________________________________________________________ Red's Trading Alert Up-Date: Shares of Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) Failed to Break the Resistance Line 09-12-2010 Shares of DO touched their 50 Day Moving Average from below but failed to break above the Key resistance line of US$62.31.


So, if the stock stays below the critical 50 Day Moving Average, then investors may continue to sell the shares in anticipation of downward price action. DO shares closed at US$60.26 in the last Thursday's trading session and opened Friday at US$60.91. DO closed trading at US$62.26, + US $1.00 (+3%) in Friday's session. The shares traded between US$60.79 and US$62.82. Last Friday's price action saw the volume at just 1,812,780/shrs, less than the average volume of 2,505,110/shrs. Analysis

Overall Short Intermediate Long Neutral (0.05) Neutral (0.06) Neutral (0.17) Neutral (-0.08)

Support and Resistance resist. resist. resist. resist. supp supp supp supp

92.88 90.01 66.16 63.86 61.60 59.45 57.95 56.57

6 2 10 2 9 4 3 2

________________________________________________________________________________ Red's Bull Trade Alert: First Solar (FSLR) 09/09/2010 LTN's Pattern Recognition Analyst, Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr, ID'd the start of a New Bullish Trend for First Solar. First Solar (FSLR) closed at US$137.25 in Wednesday's trading session and opened Thursday at US$138.62/shr. FSLR is trading at US$138.85, up US$1.11 (1.17%) in Thursday's trading session. The daily low is US$137.80 and the high is US$139.64. The volume of 778,639/shrs is above the average volume of 1,756,100/shrs. FSLR is trading above its 50 Day Moving Average and higher than its 200 Day Moving Average. My Technical Indicators for this stock augur Bullish price movement in here. The stock's 52 week low is $98.71 and 52 week high is $163.32. Analysis

Overall Short Intermediate Long Neutral (0.24) Bullish (0.25) Bullish (0.31) Neutral (0.17) 5

Support and Resistance resist. resist. resist. supp supp supp supp

150.87 143.86 139.99 137.86 135.59 131.35 128.01

2 2 2 4 2 6 8

Red's Bullish Moving Average "Crossover" Alert: Compuware Corporation (CPWR) 08-09-2010 Shares of Compuware Corporation closed above the 50 Day Moving Average of US$7.92. Technical analysts and players who study trading patterns will view this development as a sign of strength. The price when compared to the moving average can be used as an indicator to determine the trend. Wednesday's closing price of US$7.98 + 0.32 (+4.18%) likely indicates that CPWR may head North in the near term assuming the Moving Average continues to increase. On the volume side, 4,097,863/shrs traded vs. the average volume of 2,435,110/shrs. Wednesday, the stock price ranged between US$7.64 - US$7.99 and the 52 week low is US$6.7 and the high is US$8.95. Other relevant figures to examine are the Support and Resistance levels. Based on the pivot points, the current support and resistance levels for CPWR are 7.86 and 8.10 respectively. If the resistance point price is broken in an upward movement, then the bullish trend is likely to continue and vice-a-versa. Analysis

Overall Short Intermediate Long Neutral (-0.10) Neutral (0.07) Neutral (-0.02) Bearish (-0.35)

Support and Resistance resist. resist. resist. resist. resist.

8.87 8.75 8.38 8.32 8.10

2 10 3 2 2

supp 7.86 8 supp 7.69 8 supp 7.56 5


**Options can be used as predictors of stock behavior. Investors can use Put/Call ratios as technical indicators to read for signs of institutional sentiment. The Put/Call ratios offer insight to investors and can be used as either a direct or contrarian indicator for trading decisions. Unusual volume provides reliable clues that the stock is expected to make a move.

Disclaimer: The material presented in this Red's Stock Alert is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. Neither nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or for results obtained from the use of this information. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice. Before acting on any information contained on the website, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.

_____________________________________________________________________ This Week on the Economic Front September 13th Monday Treasury Budget, August (14:00): -$95.0B expected, -$103.6B past September 14th Tuesday Retail Sales, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% past Retail Sales ex-auto, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% past Business Inventories, July (10:00): 0.8% expected, 0.3% past September 15th Wednesday NY Fed - Empire Manu, September (08:30): 5.0 expected, 7.1 past Export Prices ex-ag., August (08:30): -0.2% past Import Prices ex-oil, August (08:30): -0.3% past Industrial Production, August (09:15): 0.3% expected, 1.0% past Capacity Utilization, August (09:15): 75.0 expected, 74.8% past Crude Oil Inventories, 09/11 (10:30): -1.85M past September 16th Thursday Initial Claims, 09/11 (08:30): 460K expected, 451K past Continuing Claims, 09/4 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4478K past


PPI, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% past Core PPI, August (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% past Current Account, Q2 (08:30): -$125.0 expected, -$109.0B past Net Long-Term TIC Fl, June (09:00): $44.4B past Philadelphia Fed, September (10:00): 0.0 expected, -7.7 past September 17th Friday CPI, August (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% past Core CPI, August (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% past Michigan Sentiment, September (09:55): 70.0 expected, 68.9 past

This Week on the Earnings Front Of note this week: Best Buy (BBY) before the Bell Tuesday. FedEx (FDX) before the Bell Thursday, followed by Oracle (ORCL) and Research In Motion (RIMM) after the Bell. For the complete list go to:

The Most Asked Question Last Week The Big Q: Red, Is the Bull Still Charging? The Big A: Friday's market action saw a bit of slowdown on the momentum side. Here is what I believe: Again, historically September is a bad month for stocks, but it is not always bad. Sometimes it can be terrific for stocks as they crawl up the “Wall of Worry.� I expect that this September. Check out. for the real skinny on the US Economy, and tune out the Noise. If we get a rally this week, the savvy players will take some gainers and let the market pull back a bit and take a run at the Key S&P 500 resistance and try to breakout. Look for some volatility into the end of the week. If there is good action and the market breaks through and up to the Top of the January range, look for another pullback, as players will likely take some gains there, because some stocks will have make some terrific Northside moves. Action will be North, back and fill North, back and fill, then Breakout on a big jump. Stay tuned...



Red’s Edge and in the Trenches: We all know that markets and stocks go up and they go down. Players will have winning trades and losing trades. Individual trades do not determine if a trader is a success or failure. A losing trade can be a successful trade if the trader has followed the disciplined Plan and cut a loss timely. So, that being said and knowing that there will be times of drawdown for even the best trader, how is success measured in this business? Well, one way is to go back and look at steps along the path that brought you to trading. This will likely help you understand how well you are doing. Example: one of the first steps along the path to trading success was your learning how to use the computer, a basic skill that makes the work easier, faster and hopefully better, and it follows that improvements made in the steps along the path would likely improve overall success. Next is, have you completed and do you use a well-defined and controlled trading plan? And have you learned strategies to trade up down or sideways markets? Have you developed an exit strategy, whether you have a discipline to cut losses-whether you are dedicating time to education through reading, or seminars and/or have you structured your time to permit regularly attending to the business of trading? Hopefully you are getting more knowledgeable, as knowledge is Key. So, then take the time to look back from where you are now, so you can analyze the steps that you have taken so far, looking at what you have done you can see what you have not done as well and that may lead you to improve our trading. You might look back and see that you have closed losing positions only after losses have mounted to the point where you feel hopeless. That revelation could lead you to establishing a more disciplined exit strategy. Instead of waiting for hopeless, instead decide to use the reversal of some indicator, or the break through a moving average as a more disciplined way to cut losses more quickly and more efficiently. I tell people this all the time when they call to ask. So, if you are not satisfied with your trading, look and see what actions can be improved going forward. Success is not static and can become better than you ever thought when you are willing to examine how you got where you are, with a look to how you can make the necessary changes to get where you want to be. Again, there are many ways to make and lose money in the markets. It is clearly worthwhile to learn how to make money and how to reduce or avoid losses if one is going to venture into this game. For if you are not armed with Knowledge, it is better to forget the possibility of financial gain in the markets and simply live life on the sidelines. The risks for the ignorant are huge, and in this action, Ignorance is not bliss. Safety


Safety is an illusion. You have all heard and experienced that, ask yourself, Is it safe to walk down steps, take a walk, cross the street, drive your car, sail your boat, swim in the ocean, fly your plane, ski and scuba dive, etc, etc, etc. So it is fair to say that it is not likely to have complete safety in life. In the investment world, highly rated bonds were considered safe in the past, but that has been proved not necessarily so. In the world of stock trading, safety is established with the exit strategy, and like most safety, it is imperfect at best. But it does work pretty well if you have established a good plan. And as a player/trader, you must begin with a clear understanding what is adequate safety for you. This column talks about the “Plan� throughout the year, Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan is a recurring theme here. It is your money, so for sure it is your responsibility. Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power! Again, the Reminder on Risk Risk is everywhere including trading the markets; you must learn to manage risk. When you seek profits in trading markets there is a certain factor that creeps in; it is the "Greed" factor; then comes the Risk factor that gives rise to the Fear factor in trading. Likely, many bad trades are the results of a misunderstanding of/or an initial failure to pay attention to risk. Once that risk becomes real for many folks, it can turn into fear and panic. Risk means we can lose something we have, and often, traders fail to realize just how much is at risk until it is too late for them One of the most compelling facts regarding risk of loss in the market is that if a position loses 50%, it must then double, i.e. move up 100% to get back to even. It is important to note that risk in the buying of stock in the market is one of the riskiest things on the planet. When buying a stock, the total investment is at risk. And as we have seen recently, formerly great companies can fall to Zero. You ask: Red, Are there ways to reduce the risk of losing my entire investment when buying stocks? Sure, we have discussed them in previous articles. One is employ stop loss orders in place or trailing stop loss orders. In most situations, these orders can work to prevent losing everything. It is unlikely that a stock will drop from USUS$50 to US$ Zero overnight, and most stocks that fail often post warning signs; and while they often fall fast, they usually take a bit of time to hit Zero bottom. In such circumstances, the stop loss may work to preserve capital. Here is another way to protect an asset (some of us call it Insurance). That is to buy a protective Put. A Put option is a contract whereby the buyer of the Put has the right, but not the obligation, to force someone to buy his stock at a pre-determined price, called the strike price, any time before the option expires. 10

To obtain that right, the buyer of a Put pays a premium. The situation is at least analogous to an insurance policy where the insured (stock owner) pays a premium in order to assure that a loss is limited to the premium, plus any deductible. You can learn about managing risk with options, but the major risk in options strategies is that options expire, so your puts and calls only have value until expiration; and assuming no change in the price of the stock, the call becomes less and less valuable as time passes, until there is no time left. Insurance‌ Another thought that is often espoused is to diversify. There are differing schools of thought regarding diversification and there are many ways to diversify. The above discussion lists some of the ways traders reduce and manage risk in a stock purchase transaction. All of the above is intended to motivate you to seek a greater understanding of Risk and in doing so help you Win. Again, think Education First. For news and information please go to, and sign up for RSS feeds on the latest US Market News, ASEAN and World News, Twitter, and the Hot List, it’s Free

Some ask, Red what is the reason for writing Red's Edge? Simple; I wish to help people succeed in the business of trading markets. And the proof is that I do not sell books or subscriptions to my markets reports or newsletters; it is all Free. This business is fun, challenging and rewarding in more ways than making money. My mates know that. The unsuccessful folks have the opposite POV, shying away from and ignoring the benefits of a trading education because of the minimal cost. Remember, Knowledge is Power; it will change your life for the better. And I do "my thing" to keep being sharp in my own endeavors. The Key is that a person can choose to believe or not believe, trust or not. The fact is that it is all just common sense and when applied diligently the risk is managed and lessened. The rest is up to you! The difference between winners and losers is that the winners take it seriously and they always add to their knowledge. They read, study, learn nuances, attend seminars, and sometimes use a coach or a mentor. Successful traders are not those who say coaching or seminars are too expensive. They understand that they can recoup such costs in a single trade.


My pal Wally Stein’s Words of Wisdom Buy Low, Sell High or at least in the Middle, Wally’s Lullaby Sooner or later, those who win are those who believe they can! Red’s Quote of the Week: “The universe is full of magical things waiting for our wits to grow sharper.” Have a happy day today…Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

______________________________________________________________________ In View: Big Banks rule Governments In the 2 yrs since the fall of Lehman Brothers shocked all of us in the financial world, the high-rollers of investment banking threatened the basis of Capitalism. The big risks that bankers took in the halcyon years had come back to roost and haunt at the same time. For a while after, signs of moderation were creeping in on Wall Street and the City of London, but signs of humility have been short-lived, as I said they would do in a In View piece last year. This week, some Brit pols got riled up, as one of the World’s highest paid investment bankers, Barclays’ Bob Diamond, was named as the UK group’s next Chief Executive, and it emerged that the rival HSBC was also considering elevating Stuart Gulliver, its investment banking chief, to CEO. Bankers Rule! So, in fact nothing has changed. Are the profitable banks returning to their old ways, paying their executives according to their ability to make huge profits? And if that is the case, will it spark a backlash with the regular folks? Humm...Regulators insist there is no chance of the old risk-taking culture taking root again. Sunday, there was a important meeting in Basel, Switzerland, with Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, and Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve Chairman, attending with other senior regulators to approve tougher capital ratios for the Big Banks, a part of a plan in the works almost since Lehman failed, to plug some holes and pre-empt another so called "crisis". Reformers want the new rules to halt the worst excesses, those that cut a banks’ profitability and provide a lid on pay levels that may be more effective than politically inspired taxes on executive bonuses (penalties for success from my POV). But the overhaul, which will be phased in over 10 yrs or more, will do nothing to quell the anger in the streets that is constantly fanned by political rhetoric, which some worry could erupt again, particularly in the USA. 12

But for now, as one banker put it, the mood in the USA is “calm after the storm”. Banking, having been cast as the ugly, overfed mouth of Capitalism and the principal bad guys in the financial crisis, Wall Street executives are enjoying time out of the limelight. With the USA in full political campaign mode ahead of mid-term Congressional elections, the talk is centered on the slowed US economy, the high rate of unemployment (it is not so high when you consider that full employment in the USA is measured at 5.25% unemployed) and the position of Obama’s administration to tax the rich. In June, do you remember that Obama hailed “the toughest financial reform since the aftermath of the Great Depression?” Within days of his finely crafted words, his administration was forced into a climb down (which I predicted in this column months earlier) on the so-called Obama levy, abandoning the US$19B tax on banks’ balance sheets in order to ensure the bill sponsored by the over zealous Congressman Barney Frank and Senator Christopher Dodd could the backing of Key Republicans. The lobbyists also prevailed on the Big Q on whether the largest “too big to fail” institutions should be broken-up or not. The Big Loss by the Dems was on the fight to overturn the “Volcker rule”, which would have forced publicly insured institutions to close their proprietary trading desks, which deal in the bank’s own money. That Rule was for show IMO, and never had a chance; more Democratic Grandstanding. Other fights, such as that over which kind of derivatives should be put through clearing houses, have yet to be settled in the rulemaking that follows the passage of the bill in July. The same applies to the nature of a new consumer financial products regulatory agency, a "Lightning Rod" for continuing to promote negative public sentiment towards Wall Street. Bankers have lobbied against the expected appointment of Elizabeth Warren to the job. The Brit's political moves against the banks have been less extreme than those of the USA. The only concrete measures have been a one-off bonus tax, imposed by the previous Labor government last year, and a US style levy under its successor. If the Liberal Dems have their way, the overhaul could be far more extreme than in America; not likely in my opinion. The 1st Page of the government’s coalition agreement has plans to avoid a repeat of the meltdown. The coalition promises to tackle “unacceptable bonuses” and reduce risk in the sector; it suggests a break-up of the biggest banks by demanding more competition; it wants the banks to increase lending to business. A government-appointed commission on banking, led by Sir John Vickers, has begun a year-long analysis of whether risky investment banking activities should be split from safer high-street operations. Now then, the change at the Top of Barclays lit up the debate about what the coalition is doing to honor its promises are just the political promises, and not “keepable”... For the Liberal Dems, Mr. Diamond’s appointment is viewed as an opportunity to turn up the heat on the banks again. Nick Clegg, the Liberal Dem leader and Deputy PM, believes his party can stake out a clear identity in the coalition by leading a populist campaign against bank excess. That is not likely either, IMO. Mr. George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, is no fan of Diamond's gritting his teeth at his appointment. Before last May's UK general election, Osborne said Mr. Diamond’s pay package in the aftermath of the financial crash “beggared belief”. However, now that he is at the Treasury, the Conservative Mr. Osborne is "keen in the extreme" to normalize his relations with the banks and to put the "Big Chill" on 13

any tensions, as the government must “rebalance” the economy in favor of “real engineering, not just "financial engineering”, it needs a strong financial sector to pull the UK out of recession. Mr. Osborne’s £2B levy on bank balance sheets, announced in his June Budget, is on the low side of The City's expectations and his office says there is no plan to increase it. New rules are in place to link bank bonuses to long-term performance but Mr. Osborne has no plans to repeat the Labor government’s one-off bonus "Supertax". The UK Treasury is trying to secure an international agreement on a “financial activities tax” on remuneration, and privately Mr. Osborne’s aids see no deal on the horizon. On splitting up the banks; Osborne is taking a softer line than the Liberal Dems, and there is a growing expectation that the Vickers Commission will propose something very subtle and other than a retail/investment banking divide. Mr. Osborne has been been warned forcefully from The City not to push his luck, or banks such as HSBC, Barclays and Standard Chartered could move their headquarters abroad. Mr. Obama has likely received a similar notice. Meanwhile, Messrs Osborne and Cable have failed to pressure the banks into lending more to small companies, an issue of significant tension between politicians and banks around the World, but particularly so in the UK. Mr. Cable is among those who think the banks are escaping lightly and that the coalition pact envisaged stronger action in reining in banker bonuses, increase lending and reduce risk. It is interesting that his past week he moderated his criticism, talking of “better ways” to deal with retail and investment banks being under one roof other than a “crude break-up”. People close to him say conversations with Stephen Green, who announced this week that he would stand down as HSBC chairman to become the UK Trade Minister, keyed him on the merits of a more measured approach. With Mr. Green, soon to be Lord Green, and to sit on the Treasury committee that will decide in a year’s time how the commission on banking’s reform proposals should be implemented, radical structural change now looks much less likely. For all the signs of moderation sentiment towards the banks could turn to a toxic political drink, as in February and March the banks start paying out their bonuses and the financial media will make a lot of "noise" about it for sure. If banks reverse this year’s policy wherein the compensation ratio that relates bonus payouts to profits fell to a little over 30%, compared with previous years of about 40%, that might inflame both the Pols and the Peeps. In the USA, the litmus test for populist tension could come sooner, as the mid-term campaigning ramps up. Many observers believe public opinion can turn on a dime, and generous bonuses or another financial maneuvering in the sector could re-ignite popular anger against those chaps Mr. Obama once referred to as “fat cats”.


In a highly publicized Oval Office meeting last year, Obama warned America’s Top bankers that his administration was “the only thing between you and the pitch forks”. That was all for show, as Wall Street runs Pennsylvania Avenue's Main Street. Stay tuned...Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. ____________________________________________________________________________________ US Major Markets Support and Resistance Player’s Plot your points… DJIA: Close 10,462.77 Resistance: The 200 day SMA: 10,452 Key 10,496 the November 2009 high 10,594 the June 2010 high 10,609 a September 2008 interim low 10,730 the January 2010 high 10,920 the May 2010 high Support: 10,365 is the late September 2008 low The 50 day EMA at 10,318 10,285 the late December 2009 consolidation high 10,260 the May/June 2010 interim highs 10,209 the August 2010 low 10,120 the October 2009 high 9918 the September 2008 high

S&P 500: Close 1109.55 Resistance: The 200 day SMA: 1116 Key 1119 the early December 2009 intra-day high 15

1129 to 1131 the June/August 2010 highs 1133 a September 2008 intra-day low 1151 the January 2010 high 1156 the Sept 2008 low 1170 the March 2010 high 1174 the May 2010 high 1181 the April 2010 sell-off low Support: 1106 the September 2008 low 1101 the May/June 2010 interim high The 50 day EMA: 1089 1084 the September 2009 high 1078 the October 2009 range low 1070 the late September 2009 high. A Key support level. 1065 the May 2010 Flash Crash intra-day low. NAS: Close at 2242.48 Resistance: The 200 day SMA at 2273 2275/2278 the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key levels. 2273/2282 the bottom of January 2010 lateral high 2310 the August 2010 high 2319 the September 2008 high 2320 the January 2010 high 2341 the June 2010 high Support:


2236 the 1st August 2010 Gap point. 2221 the Gap down upside point in June 2010. The 50 day EMA: 2215 2205 the November 2009 high 2195 the October 2009 high. 2184 the June Gap open down Bottom point 2177 a low from March 2008 2169 the March 2008 closing low: Double Bottom 2168 the September 2009, intra-day high 2155 the August 2010 low _______________________________________________________________________

Hot Topics ASEAN: Thailand PM urged to prevent rise of the Thai Baht Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva should show "strong signals" that the government would not allow the Thai Baht to rise any further against USD, a leading industrialist said on Friday. "The government has not shown any of such signals. If the baht rises any much further, our industries will fail to adjust," Payungsak Chartsutipol, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), the leading association of multi-sector industries, told a press conference. Payungsak said the Bank of Thailand (BoT), the country's central bank, should also intervene to prevent the Thai currency from rising faster than other currencies in Southeast Asia. The Baht climbed to a range of 30.63 to 30.73 Baht against the USD Thursday, the highest level in 13 yrs, said a statement issued by the FTI after a meeting over the impact of the rising Baht. Since the beginning of this year, the Baht has risen 2.52 baht, or 7.60%, against USD, one of the highest appreciation rates among all currencies in the region, the statement said. FTI said in the past month, the Baht has soared 3.74% against USD, and if the appreciation continues like this, the Thai currency could rise to 29.50 Baht to 1 US $ by the end of October. Payungsak said export oriented industries have been "severely" affected by the rising Thai currency such as garments, textile and agricultural products, adding that for every 1 Baht appreciation against the USD, it would cost the auto industry 6B Baht (US$195M).


The chairman also said as inflows of short-term funds to speculate in Thai stocks and bonds markets have contributed to the Baht's appreciation, the government should come up with measures to discourage such inflows. "The government could require these funds to stay in the country for at least six months, as Indonesia and the Philippines have already enforced such measure," according to a statement read by Payungsak. Meanwhile, the government could also allow exporters to pay shipment freights in foreign currencies without having to convert them into local currency in helping to lessen the exchange losses, he said. ---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

BRIC: Coal India plans huge IPO Coal India is set to begin a Roadshow to promote what is expected to be India’s biggest stock listing, even as tightened environmental regulations, and a Maoist insurgency threaten to render much of the state-owned miner’s reserves inaccessible. The company’s biggest coal fields are located in remote regions dominated by Maoist rebels who often target business activities for extortion, disrupt roads and railway lines used to transport coal and are suspected of involvement in coal theft. Further, India's coal ministry has yet to persuade Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister, to roll back an order by the environment ministry that this year designated areas covering about 40 per cent of Coal India’s reserves as “no-go areas” for mining to stop the wholesale felling of eastern forests. Coal India wishes to raise up to Rs150bn (US$3.2B) from the sale of a 10% stake. That would make its IPO bigger than India’s largest completed listing, the US$3B offering of domestic electricity producer Reliance Power in early Y 2008. Coal India claims to be the World’s largest coal producer and accounts for 85% of production in India, which has the 4th largest reserves on the planet. But Coal India recently revised down its annual production target from 520M tonnes to 486m tonnes, citing delays in environmental clearance for mine expansion. Meanwhile, Indian coal imports are surging, with KPMG estimating a domestic shortfall of 189M tonnes a year by Y 2015---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

China's retail sales of consumer goods + 18.4% in August China's retail sales of consumer goods in August hit 1.26T Yuan (US$185.4B), up 18.4% year on year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Saturday. The growth rate in August was 0.5 percentage points higher than in July, the NBS said. The August increase brought the total retail sales in the first eight months to 9.75T Yuan, up 18.2% over the same period last year. Urban consumption hit 1.09 T Yuan in August, up 18.8%, while rural residents spent 164B Yuan, up 15.9%. 18

The catering sector reported 147.1B Yuan of revenues in August, up 18.8% year on year, and the retail goods trade was valued at 1.11T Yuan, up 18.4%.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

EU: Up-date Basel III sets new capital rules for Banks At its 12 September 2010 meeting, the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision, the oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, announced a strengthening of existing capital requirements and fully endorsed the agreements it reached on 26 July 2010. These capital reforms, with the introduction of a global liquidity standard, deliver on the core of the global financial reform agenda and will be presented to the Seoul G-20 Leaders summit in November. The Committee's package of reforms will increase the minimum common equity requirement from 2% to 4.5%. In addition, banks will be required to hold a capital conservation buffer of 2.5% to withstand future periods of stress bringing the total common equity requirements to 7%. Thus, reinforcing the stronger definition of capital agreed by Governors and Heads of Supervision in July and the higher capital requirements for trading, derivative and securitization activities to be introduced at the end of Y 2011. Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank and Chairman of the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision, said that "the agreements reached today are a fundamental strengthening of global capital standards." He added that "their contribution to long term financial stability and growth will be substantial. The transition arrangements will enable banks to meet the new standards while supporting the economic recovery." Mr. Nout Wellink, Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and President of the Netherlands Bank, added that "the combination of a much stronger definition of capital, higher minimum requirements and the introduction of new capital buffers will ensure that banks are better able to withstand periods of economic and financial stress, therefore supporting economic growth." Under the agreements reached Sunday, the minimum requirement for common equity, the highest form of loss absorbing capital, will be raised from the current 2% level, before the application of regulatory adjustments, to 4.5% after the application of stricter adjustments. This will be phased in by 1 January 2015. The Tier 1 capital requirement, which includes common equity and other qualifying financial instruments based on stricter criteria, will increase from 4% to 6% over the same period. The Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision also agreed that the capital conservation buffer above the regulatory minimum requirement be calibrated at 2.5% and be met with common equity, after the application of deductions. The purpose of the conservation buffer is to ensure that banks maintain a buffer of capital that can be used to absorb losses during periods of financial and economic stress. While banks are allowed to draw on the buffer during such periods of stress, the closer their regulatory capital ratios approach the minimum requirement, the greater the constraints on earnings distributions. This framework will reinforce the objective of sound supervision and bank governance and address the collective action problem that has prevented some banks from curtailing distributions such as discretionary bonuses and high dividends, even in the face of deteriorating capital positions. A counter cyclical buffer within a range of 0% to 2.5% of common equity or other fully loss absorbing capital will be implemented according to national circumstances. The purpose of the counter cyclical 19

buffer is to achieve the broader macro-prudential goal of protecting the banking sector from periods of excess aggregate credit growth. For any given country, this buffer will only be in effect when there is excess credit growth that is resulting in a system wide build up of risk. The counter cyclical buffer, when in effect, would be introduced as an extension of the conservation buffer range. These capital requirements are supplemented by a non-risk-based leverage ratio that will serve as a backstop to the risk-based measures described above. Last July, Governors and Heads of Supervision agreed to test a minimum Tier 1 leverage ratio of 3% during the parallel run period. Based on the results of the parallel run period, any final adjustments would be carried out in 1-Half of Y 2017 with a view to migrating to a Pillar 1 treatment on 1 January 2018 based on appropriate review and calibration. Systemically important banks should have loss absorbing capacity beyond the standards announced today and work continues on this issue in the Financial Stability Board and relevant Basel Committee work streams. The Basel Committee and the FSB are developing a well integrated approach to systemically important financial institutions which could include combinations of capital surcharges, contingent capital and bail-in debt. In addition, work is continuing to strengthen resolution regimes. The Basel Committee also recently issued a consultative document Proposal to ensure the loss absorbency of regulatory capital at the point of non-viability. Governors and Heads of Supervision endorse the aim to strengthen the loss absorbency of non-common Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital instruments. ---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

USA: Republican leader says GOP will gain in mid-term elections The leading Republican in US House of Representatives Sunday said Republicans are set for Big Gains in the mid-term elections. House minority leader John Boehner told CBS' "Face the Nation" that the GOP has "great candidates across the country and we have a great opportunity" in the Fall elections. However, he admitted regaining control of the House is "still an uphill fight." Poll results have favored the Republicans recently. After the traditional campaign kick-off Labor Day weekend earlier this month, polls have suggested Republicans could regain control of the House from Democrats. The President's party usually suffers in mid-term elections. With the economy still in bad shape and unemployment figures high, Democrats are bracing for a rough time in the Fall. Democrats, including President Barack Obama, have been branding the GOP as the "Party of No." Boehner defended his party by saying Democrats in the House and Senate "haven't reached out to us for the last 20 months. It's not Republican standing in the way here." ---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. _________________________________________________________________________________ At the Movies with The Hollywood Reporter (THR)


'Afterlife' wins weekend Box Office with US$27.7M 'Takers' nabs #2 spot, bumping 'The American' to 3 rd Ah, the evil genius of it all. Sony Screen Gems' 3D fourquel "Resident Evil: Afterlife" -- a lone wide opener during the oft-sleepy first frame of the fall box office season -- topped the domestic rankings with an estimated $27.7 million in weekend coin. The SciFi-horror actioner's rousing start is all the more impressive when measured against previous "Evil" bows, marking a new high for the eight-year-old film series, with help from 3D ticket "up charges." The chart-topping performance thus also underscores moviegoers' continued embrace of 3D, despite tickets costing $3-$5 more than for 2D pics. "Afterlife" is the first extra-dimensional installment in the video game-spawned franchise, featuring more than 2,000 3D locations among its 3,203 total playdates. Each successive "Evil" pic has opened bigger than the previous. Most recently, September 2007's "Resident Evil: Extinction" unspooled with a $23.7 million first frame and $50.6 million overall domestically. Sony paid $52 million for most worldwide rights on "Afterlife," produced by Germany's Constantin Film for an estimated $60 million. Bowing in most global territories through next weekend, the zombie-virus yarn collected $45.5 million internationally in the most recent session. Directed by franchise originator Paul W.S. Anderson, "Afterlife" features Milla Jovovich reprising her recurring role as a primary "Evil" heroine. The R-rated pic attracted opening audiences comprised 58% of males, with 51% of patrons aged 25 or older. "'Afterlife' just so over-performed around the world," Sony distribution boss Rory Bruer said. "The excitement that 3D brings to the film was a huge positive." Some 141 high-grossing Imax 3D venues -- boasting up charges of $5 or so -- contributed $2.6 million domestically. "This is a record September opening for Imax, and the $23,000 per screen is remarkably strong for this time of the year," Imax Filmed Entertainment chief Greg Foster enthused. "Fan boys love Imax. It's just as simple as that." Sony Screen Gems' leggy heist actioner "Takers" took in $6.1 million in second place, yielding $48.1 million in cumulative coin through three frames and a rare pair of pics atop the weekend rankings for Clint Culpepper's genre unit. "Afterlife" and "Takers" represent the first two campaigns supervised by Screen Gems executive VP, marketing Loren Schwartz since his moving over from a creative advertising post at Sony/Columbia. Elsewhere during the weekend, Focus Features' George Clooney-starrer "The American" -- which topped all comers just a week earlier -- fell 55% from its first Friday-Sunday to post $5.9 million in third place, with a $28.3 million cume since Sept. 1. Fox's crime actioner "Machete" dropped a big 63% to $4.2 million in fourth place on the frame and a 10-day cume of $20.8 million, while Warner Bros.' romantic comedy "Going the Distance" dipped 44% in its sophomore session to $3.9 million in fifth with a $44 million cume. On a year-over-year basis, the weekend's $84 million in industry wide grosses represented a 10% downtick from the first box office session of fall 2009. Among the latest frame's limited bows, Magolia unspooled Casey Affleck's Joaquin Phoenix mockumentary "I'm Still Here" in 19 locations and grossed $104,500, or an acceptable $5,500 per site. Samuel Goldwyn/IDP debuted family sports drama "Legendary" in 177 theaters but registered just $135,210, or a thin


$763 per engagement. Four of a Kind opened the ensemble dramedy "The Romantics" -- featuring Katie Holmes, Anna Paquin, Josh Duhamel and others -- with solo runs in New York and L.A. to gross $44,385, or an encouraging $22,193 per venue. And the French romantic comedy "Heartbreaker" bowed in two New York locations and one in L.A. to fetch $54,300, or an auspicious $18,100 per site. Sony offered one-performance-a-night previews of its upcoming youth comedy "The Virginity Hit." With producers including Will Ferrell and Adam McKay, the low-budgeted movie is set for limited release on Sept. 24 and execs wanted to gauge its appeal with the target "Virginity" crowd. The weekend results seemed encouraging. Sony didn't divulge grosses, but "Virginity" -- whose campaign features "Still a Virgin?" billboards around town -- played to three-fourth capacity crowds and is likely to broaden to additional locations next weekend, execs said. Four pics open wide on Friday, a day ahead of the Yom Kippur religious holiday. They include Warners' crime thriller "The Town," Lionsgate's 3D animated family comedy "Alpha and Omega," Universal's horror pic "Devil" and Sony's youth laugher "Easy A."


Current US Stock Market Sentiment + Bulls vs. Bears Are you Watching the VIX + Bulls vs. Bears On the VIX. The VIX has moved South to the August low when the market hit this range high out and moved South in its trading range. Players will be watching the S&P 500 this week for some momentum indicator early in the week. The VIX now is at a level where it has led to a market correction within the trading range over the past several months. Watch and Wait 1, VIX: 21.99; -0.82 2. VXN: 22.98; -0.31 3. VXO: 20.89; -0.64 3. Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.28; +0.22 Bulls vs. Bears Bulls vs. Bears is a weekly tally of the number of Bullish advisors vs. Bearish advisors. The "Crossover" (a Bullish indicator) from the past week opened, but the Bulls/Bears remains close in here as it set's up for a breakout of the trading range. Bulls are at 33.3% vs. 29.4% last week, but below the 35% considered a Bullish indicator, thus backing up the Northside run in the range, as they begin cross again, but not just yet. For your reference: 35% is the level that augurs Bullishness.


Bears are at 32.2% vs. 37.7% last week on a deep decline back below the 35% level. When the Bears are above 35% that is is considered Bullish. For your reference: Bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50% took Bear sentiment to its highest mark since Y1995. NB: Are you watching the VIX? It always tells us when we are moving back to a more rational market. *The Market Volatility Index (VIX) measures the volatility of the market. A recent news story described it as "the options market's gauge of investor fear." Traders use VIX as a general inverse indicator of market volatility and sentiment. High numbers mean that there's excess bearishness, and low numbers indicate excess bullishness. The VIX is updated intra-day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), using Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) bid/ask quotes. It was created in 1993. **The CBOE NAS Volatility Index (VXN) employs the same formula used to calculate US$VIX, which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. This formula is derived from a basket of put and call options. Some are out of the money, some in the money, and some at the money. The resulting US$VXN represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical 30-day option that is at the money. ***The VXO is the ticker created to track the "original VIX" that was calculated using the prices of S&P 100 options. The new VIX uses the ticker US$VIX and is calculated using the prices of S&P 500 options. The fundamental nature of the VXO is the same as the VIX, but it is less robust and not as simple as the VIX.

What to expect this week and down the line‌ Once again this week there are lots of data to report, including; retail sales for August Tuesday, regional manufacturing data, and the New York Fed Wednesday, + industrial production and capacity, and the initial jobs claims. In addition, then the Philly Fed Thursday. Next the PPI, CPI and MSI. I expect that sentiment is getting better and on the rise. On the US Market: both Shayne and believe that there will be added momentum this week that will cut thru the 200 Day EMA on the S&P 500 and higher to the 1130 Key resistance line. It has been there twice and turned back, the 3rd time is the charm I believe. On a move North to the top of the range there will likely be some volatility so players will be playing the action. Be careful, because when the markets get to the top of the range, players will likely be taking gains on the odds that the market will not break out, and move back to test 1100 on the S&P 500 on this move. If there is a test back toward the 1110 level on the S&P 500, then it will run up again and the 4th time will be the charm for the breakout, I believe. Nevertheless, if there is a break to the Northside. The leaders will lead and test setting up the big move into year's end. This action may take 20/25 trading sessions as the market rallies up to the resistance, backs and fills, and runs to a new high. Be nimble and cautious during this action if you are trading it to an upside break. This market will be climbing a wall of worry and negativity "noise" in the financial media, tune it out please, and pay attention to the technical action in here for your cue's North and South.


The market always tells up what to do and now it is North to the top of the trading range; so until it changes, players will be playing the trading range. Have a great week, All the best, Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. AKA The Red Roadmaster

___________________________________________________________________________ The Weekly Gold and Crude Oil Report Gold Gold futures on the COMEX Division of the New York Merc edged lower Friday and capped its 1st weekly decline since July, pressured by the ongoing decline in the flight-to-quality POV. The most active Gold contract for Dec delivery fell US$4.4, or 0.4%, to end the week at US$1,246.5 oz.

The Overall Technical Outlook Comex Gold (GC) Gold rose 1264.7 last week, but faded ahead of the 1266.5 record high. The fall and break of the near term channel support level is viewed as the 1st sign of reversal. Initial bias is now a bit to the Southside this week, as I look for a continuing fall. A decisive break of 1210.2/1211.7, the cluster support (50% retracement of 1155.6 to 1264.7 at 1210.2) will confirm that the rebound from 1155.6 is complete, and will bring a further fall towards this support level. On the upside: once again I will not turn Bullish on Gold before I see a clean break through1266.5, the record high. The Big Picture: note that the stronger than expected rise from 1155.6 and its persistence still dampens my Bearish POV. But for now I will not be turning Bullish, and stay Neutral ahead of a break of 1266.5, the Key resistance. A break below 1211.7, Key support, will confirm that the rebound from 1155.6 is complete, and reaffirm the case that the rally is the 2nd leg consolidation from 1266.5. If that be the case, we should at least see a retest of 1155.6, the support level. But a clear break of 1266.5 will tell me that medium term rally is still in progress as it moves to 1300, the Key psych level. The Long-term Picture: the view that 1266.5 is a major Top is starting to look iffy now. But, considering Bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, a major Top may be near, even if it is not yet formed. I am expecting sizeable correction after the Topping, possibility with a break of 1000, the Key psych level. However, for now there is no indication of long term up-trend reversal in here. I maintain the long term Bullish POV, and expect whole up trend from 1999 low of 253 to continue to 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level after completing the called for correction. Stay tuned...


Crude Oil Crude Oil jumps after US/CA pipeline shutdown Crude Oil prices rose 3+ % Friday after a major pipeline supplying Canadian Crude Oil to the United States was shutdown. Enbridge's pipeline # 6A was shut down due to a leak near Romeoville, Illinois. Canada is the largest Crude Oil exporter to the United States, and Enbridge's pipelines carry the Lion's share of that Crude Oil. The Line 6A carries 670,000 bbls of Crude Oil per day and is the largest of the company's 3 major pipelines. The incident triggered unease about US Crude Oil supply. Crude futures traded in New York rose to US$76.73 bbl during the trading session, 3.3% higher than the prior session's settlement price. But Crude Oil gains were tempered after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned about over supply. The IEA said Global Crude Oil consumption was expected to increase a little this year but slip some in Y 2011. And it said that energy consumption could be much weaker if the Global recovery slows. The IEA also said Global Crude Oil supply was more than sufficient to meet demand, noting high levels of industry stocks across the developed world. Light, Sweet Crude Oil for October delivery rallied US$2.2 to settle at US$76.45 bbl on the New York Merc. Brent Light Crude for October delivery rose 69c to settle at US$78.16 bbl on the International Futures Exchange (ICE) in London. 25

The Overall Technical Outlook Nymex Crude Oil (CL) After staying range bound for most of last week, Crude Oil's rebound from 70.76 resumed Friday and rose to as high as 76.73. So, now my Initial bias will turn mildly to the Northside this week as I look for a continuation of the rebound. I still expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 82.97 to 70.76 at 78.31 and then bring resumption of fall from 82.97. A break below 73.88 will flip intra-day bias back to the Southside, and sustained trading below the 70.76/71.09 support zone will confirm my Bearish POV that rebound from 64.23 completed at 82.97, and target another low below 64.23. The Big Picture: the rebound from 64.23 is treated as a correction to the fall from 87.15, and has possibly finished at 82.97. A decisive break of 71.09, Key support, will confirm this Bearish POV, and augur that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for 60, the Key psych level, (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18, 100% projection of 87.15 to 64.23 from 82.97 at 60.05). Further, a decisive break there will augur that the fall from 87.15 is developing into a powerful impulsive wave and targets 33.2 on the low. On the Upside: a break of 82.97, the Key resistance, is needed to invalidate this POV. Otherwise, I will stay Bearish on Crude Oil. The Long-term Picture: current developments say that that rebound from 33.2 completed at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. My POV is this: the fall from 87.15 should develop into the 3rd falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and so, I anticipate an eventual break of the 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends South. Stay tuned....


______________________________________________________________________________ Red's Weekly Forex Update USD rises a bit as risk appetite emerges The USD rose a bit against most major currencies in New York trading Friday as optimism took hold in the market and shifted players' interest to more risky assets than safe-haven ones. The data from the Eastern World stimulated the Western market. China's General Administration of Customs said Friday that China's trade surplus narrowed to US$20B in August, from US$28.7B in July. Economists had forecast a US$30B surplus. China's exports rose 34.4% year-on-year to US$139.3B, against 35% growth expected by economists surveyed. Imports climbed 35.2% to US$119.27B, compared with an expected 25% increase. China's central bank on Friday set the Yuan parity rate at 6.7625 vs. USD, the highest level for the Chinese currency against the "Greenback" since it was delinked from its peg to the USD in July 2005. The market was expecting more encouraging economic data from China. August CPI rises to 22-month high, PPI up 4.3% Meanwhile, the Japanese government Friday announced a stimulus package worth US$10.9B. The market reacted quickly and the Yen snapped its upward trend vs. the USD. The USD bought 84.15 Japanese Yen in late New York trading Friday compared with 83.90 Yen Thursday.


The news that the Japanese government has reiterated it would intervene in the Forex market if necessary provided more reasons for the investors to give up the Yen. The Yen hit a 15 yr high vs. the USD last Tuesday. US President Barack Obama, addressing a press conference Friday, insisted that the US economy is showing improvement from the deepest recession in decades but conceded the "progress has been painfully slow." Market confidence was further boosted by an upbeat industrial stocks report. The US Commerce Department said wholesale inventories jumped 1.3% in July, more than 3 times of the 0.4% increase analysts had forecast, showing that wholesalers are still confident in the recovery. The fear on the health of European banking system haunted the market for the past several months began to vaporize. The USD traded at 1.2718 per Euro in late New York trading Friday. The pair was traded at 1.2700 Thursday. For the entire (shortened) week, the USD index has lost 0.2%. Vs. the Yen, the USD is down 0.1%. The USD rose 0.6% against the Swiss Franc last week, and the Euro rose 0.2%. The GBP declined 0.1% on the week vs. the "Greenback".

EUR/USD: Weak and Vulnerable EURUSD: Failure to follow through higher and seeing the pair collapsing to a low of 1.2709 last week, the EUR is likely to continue that weakness as this week begins. This should show the way to more weakness to the 1.2586 level, its August 24, 2010 low followed by the 1.2522 level, its July 13, 2010 high. If there is further weakness from there it will aim for its June 20, 2010 high at 1.2466, and then possibly lower. Nevertheless, the pair remains biased to the Northside in the short term, a return above the 1.3332 level is required to trigger the up- trend and target its .50. Fib Ret (1.5143-1.1875 decline) at 1.3500 ahead of the 1.3691 level, its April 12, 2010 high. Stay tuned... Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Disclaimer This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report.

________________________________________________________________________________ Small Cap Stocks to Watch


Hythiam, Inc. (HYTM) This Company is doing good work and closing in on the answer to addiction of drugs and alcohol through its patented Prometa® therapy, a protocol that is designed to reset dysfunctional receptors in the brain to a pre-substance abuse state while integrating medical, behavioral, and nutritional components. Hythiam has 21 patents issued or allowed and 95 applications pending. Q-1 Y 2008 revenues grew to USUS$11.3 million, with 60% increase in contributions from anti-addiction services. Hythiam recently signed an Agreement with Ford Motor Corp. to offer its services to Ford’s employees worldwide. Hythiam provides comprehensive behavioral health management services to health plans, employers, and criminal justice and government agencies. In May 2008, Hythiam announced reimbursement agreement with CIGNA HealthCare for Prometa based treatment program. Its CATASYS™ Integrated Substance Dependence Solution is the only program of its kind dedicated exclusively to chemical dependence. The company also researches, develops, licenses and commercializes innovative and proprietary physiological, nutritional, and behavioral treatment programs. This market represents 180 million lives, and over 22 million Americans suffer from dependence on illicit drugs or alcohol, with only 18% seeking treatment. Direct medical costs in the US are over USUS$42B. Cocaine/stimulant addiction therapy is a multi-billion dollar market opportunity that was previously without effective treatment. Currently trading at .07 -.003 Support NIL Resistance .07. The 50-Day EMA is .12. There is a Bearish Harami on September 10. The overall technical indicators are Bearish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bearish Latest News and Opinion: Experienced Financial Executive, Peter Donato, Joins Hythiam as CFO Hythiam Raises Approximately US$3.5 Million in Registered Direct Offering Arjuna Media Incorporated (AEMC) Arjuna is not a producer of media content; the company is focused on risk adverse product distribution. The Company’s executives are senior in their field; they have seasoned and respected talent, Key business relationships plus the exceptionally successful and honored management skills that solidly position them to build a leading film distribution company delivering strong financial returns for investors. ( ) Trading at US$0.13/shr. + .00 Support .12 Resistance .15. The 50 Day EMA is .18 Technicals are overall Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is Bullish Latest News and Opinion: Archer Media Entertainment Accepts Arjuna Media Bid to Take Over Company

Neah Power Systems, Inc. (NPWZ) NEAH has developed and successfully tested a patented, siliconbased, micro fuel cell, which recently passed 2000 hours of continuous energy production. The Company claims it will eventually replace batteries. It recently successfully completed a second round of tests for U.S. Navy Office of Naval Research, which has invested US$3 million into the Company, which expects to offer its products to the entire range of the US and global military. The self-contained fuel cell also has a large market in police, and fire departments, and other first responders, including ambulance, paramedic and emergency room personnel, as well as power solutions for notebook PCs PDAs, mobile 29

phones, camcorders, digital cameras and other portable electronic devices. NEAH’s fuel cell fits within a notebook PC’s internal battery cavity instead of outside the computer, and uses methanol, a renewable resource, which delivers continuous untethered power. NEAH recently received a cash infusion from Agile Opportunity Fund, and also acquired SolCool One, LLC, and a leader in the solar air conditioning industry. NEAH recently announced a joint venture with Hobie Cat boats to develop a fuel cell propelled craft, and also revealed another with EKO Vehicles of Bangalore, India, to develop a fuel cell charger for their line of motorcycles and scooters sold around the world. http// The iHubbers are also talking about Neah. Currently trading at .06 +.002 Support .05 Resistance .08 The 50 Day EMA is .08. Technicals overall are Bearish. There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on September 8. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bearish Latest News and Opinion: NEAH and India's EKO Vehicles to Explore Merger and Acquisition Opportunities to Facilitate Global Growth Skymark Research Initiates Independent Research Coverage on Neah Power Systems, Inc.

TOMI Environmental Solutions, Inc. (TOMZ). “TOMI” is an infectious disease control company, which uses one of the most powerful disinfectants known to man ozone. The Ministry of Health, in Thailand, has invited TOMI to demonstrate its prowess in eliminating pathogens in a military hospital, similar to its success in September, in a Baltimore hospital operating room, in which it killed 99.999% of all viruses, bacteria, mold spores, and pathogens. TOMI’s technology can be used against all forms of pathogens, including Swine Flu. Hospitals can be a significant hazard to sick people, and TOMI may come to be the only answer to a real problem in healthcare. TOMI remediated a high school in Brooklyn, NY after a flu outbreak, and outperformed any other known treatment method, killing 99.999 percent of all bacteria, viruses, and mold spores, using TOMI’s Ultraviolet Ozone Generators. The EPA reports that indoor air pollution is in the top five risks to public health. The American Medical Association (AMA) says that indoor levels of pollutants are between 25 and 200 times higher than outdoors. TOMI-ES has an exclusive distribution agreement with Advanced Disinfection Technologies, LLC to market their MRA Technology to over 300 Hospitals with its alliance partners. Magnetic Resolution Activation (MRA™) is a revolutionary breakthrough disinfection process that effectively kill microorganisms, is not harmful to people or animals, is non-allergic, inexpensive and convenient to use. 2.4 million people each year require additional hospital care. Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) account for more than 120,000 deaths annually in the US. ADTec's research and development company and TOMI’s complete air remediation for all forms of disinfection for many industries, solves this problem with the ability to kill 99.99% of harmful bacteria, viruses and spores in a hospital room in 15 minutes at a very economic price. Unlike harmful chemicals, the Reactive Oxygen Species fog (ROS) does no damage to any known material. Currently trading at .0608 +.0108 Support NIL Resistance .08. The 50-Day EMA is .11. There is a Hammer on September 9. There is a Gap open up at .0499 to .0608 on September 10. The overall technical indicators are Bullish/Very Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Very Bullish Latest News and Opinion: Form 10-Q for TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC.


TOMI Environmental Solutions, Along With Its Alliance Partner, Rolyn Companies, Using their State of the Art Equipment, are Prepared to Assist Gulf Coast Residents With Cleanup From the Damage of a Major Hurricane If It Hits the Region,

“On the Watch List” contains potential investment opportunities suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios. On The Watch List Bolser PLC and Mingo Bay Properties PLC make up the LTN German Hot List, both have very strong asset backing, are profitable and growing revenue, if it is the right time to begin building your European portfolio, check out these 2 stocks.

Bolser PLC Frankfurt Stock Exchange (UKG.F) Bolser PLC located in London, UK owns 99% of the subsidiary group of companies Bolser Ltd., located in Bolivia, Peru and Brazil. Bolser Ltd., (Bolivian Oil Services Ltda.) was founded in 1975 by the Hinojosa family. Bolser Plc., through its operating subsidiaries and its more than 305 employees has been a long time leader in the oil, gas and mining infrastructure construction industry. Bolser is a specialist in the construction and maintenance of pipelines, roads, bridges, manufacturing and storage sites of various types. The company pursues an international growth strategy, aiming to continue developing new markets in neighboring countries such as Brazil and Peru. The company’s competence is based on the long experience of its employees and management, using this to target the needs of the various projects, depending on the situation and the existing infrastructure to develop an individual solution for the customer. Based on its good South American market position and a scalable business model, Bolser PLC expanded their presence in attractive foreign markets. Because of its growth in the energy, mining and infrastructure operations Bolser decided to expand to Brazil and Peru and founded there more subsidiaries. Because of the knowledge of the geological, political and infrastructural situation in these countries to assess and evaluate quickly this knowledge for new projects, Bolser is in an excellent starting position for their business activities and creates additional growth potential. Mingo Bay Properties PLC Frankfurt Stock Exchange (5RB.F) Mingo Bay Properties PLC is a United Kingdom domiciled public company with its shares currently listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FSE). The “Company” refers collectively to Mingo Bay, its subsidiaries, joint ventures, affiliates and partners. Mingo Bay is in the business of acquiring, developing, and managing recreational and residential resort properties. Mingo Bay markets the properties through its company, 1 Beach Development, Inc. as vacation ownership interests. Mingo Bay has U.S offices in Houston, Texas and Tampa Bay, Florida and its registered office in London, England. The Company has development projects in the Dominican Republic and Mexico. The Company currently owns, manages


and markets ocean front resorts in Puerta Vallarta and Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The Company currently has €36,024,000 (€1.28) per share capital and projects positive EPS growth for 2010.

Ronn Motor Company (RNNM.PK) Ronn Motor Company (PINKSHEETS: RNNM) ( announced that the renovation on their new Green manufacturing facility and corporate headquarters is nearing completion. In keeping with their “green” theme, Ronn Motors was able to locate, hire and utilize independent, green, certified, local contractors that have made extensive use of green materials in the construction process wherever possible. It is expected that the manufacturing facility will be available for limited access within the next couple of weeks. This will provide the company an opportunity to move in and start setting up production in the mid May time frame. Full access to the facility is projected for the end of May. Ronn Maxwell, CEO of Ronn Motors, commented, “We’re thrilled. After a few construction delays, we can finally see the end, or should I say the beginning of a new phase. Our planning is completed. We are geared up and ready to quickly move towards full production of the Scorpion HX and H2GO real-time hydrogen injection system and, more importantly, start delivering on our commitments in the 3rd Quarter of this year.” While waiting for the completion of the renovation of the new Marble Falls manufacturing facility, Ronn Motors has been working on the initial plans and design of a new midrange sports hybrid sedan, based on electric/diesel hybrid technologies. The board has now given the go-ahead to move forward and put those plans on the drawing board. During the last two years Ronn Motors has met with many electric, diesel and hybrid drive-train manufacturers, as well as other automotive designers. The new Marble Falls facility will provide adequate additional space to develop this car in the future. Ronn Maxwell, CEO of Ronn Motor Company, stated that, “Consolidating our manpower and leveraging the skills and lessons learned from the creation of Scorpion HX should help to provide us a competitive edge in this new developing market. We are genuinely excited about the future new addition to our fine family of eco-friendly products.” It is interesting to note that the Japanese automaker and Tesla Motors will be teaming up to develop electric motor vehicles in California. Toyota will not only be investing US$50M of capital into Tesla but will also provide engineering and production systems for the development of electric vehicles. Production of Tesla model S sedan According to the deal, both the automakers will be working together to manufacture Tesla model S sedan, which is a high performance electric sedan, competing with cars like the BMW 5-series. The cars will be manufactured in a plant in California in 2012. Initially, the automakers are expected to produce 20,000 vehicles. The unit will employ 1,000 workers, which are expected to grow to 10,000 over the years. Read the whole Story at: 32

HEALTHY COFFEE INTERNATIONAL, INC. (HCEI.PK) HEALTHY COFFEE USA ( is focused on bringing health to the world’s most popular and widely distributed drink, coffee. The company’s proprietary formulas combine the health benefits of Ginseng, Reishi Mushroom, and other top quality ingredients with the world’s finest coffee beans to create a line of deliciously healthy instant gourmet coffee drinks. Healthy Coffee’s products are sold exclusively through its subsidiary, Healthy Coffee USA, Inc., which uses a simple and unique Internet-driven international business model that allows the average person to own and operate a local, national, or international coffee distribution or coffee house business with very little capital investment or overhead. Healthy Coffee is well positioned in the market place at the intersection of three mega-billion dollar industries: coffee, wellness and energy drinks, and has quickly moved into international markets by establishing preliminary marketing offices in more than a dozen countries. Network marketing is the fastest distribution model to bring a product to market, and Healthy Coffee USA’s initial goal is to open 20 countries with a minimum of 50,000 independent distributors in each country within five years, for a total of one million independent distributors. The company’s vision is to bring health to the world’s largest and most popular drink, coffee and to be recognized globally as The World’s Healthy Coffee Company®! In pursuit of our vision, we will: Provide the highest quality Healthy Coffee drinks and wellness products. Provide an opportunity for the average person to own a coffee distribution or coffee house business without the big capital and overhead, and market globally via the Internet. Provide our independent distributors with a sense of “belonging” by being able to own stock in our public company and know they will be part of the company’s projected growth. Build a legacy company that holds integrity as its foundation, because we believe that “integrity is honoring your word”, and make a difference in the industry by offering a real home to its distributors. Build our shareholders’ value in the company by maintaining stability and improving financial performance. Give back to the community by helping the orphans and poor children of the world. Read the whole Story at:

“On the Watch List” contains potential investment opportunities for suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios.

Red’s Rules to Always Play by… Do what they do on Wall St. and not what they say; that means tune out the “Noise”.


Some folks like to buy stocks because they are upgraded, or sell stocks because they are downgraded; that’s the wrong approach. Learn how to evaluate stocks for yourself. It is not a difficult process; the steps are 1) check the volume for a buying or selling patterns, 2) recognize support and resistance levels and utilizing key charting patterns. I use for my data. Knowledge is Power (and Money) Over my 30+ yrs playing the stock market in earnest, I have learned that there are winning stocks that most traders and investors completely ignore and abhor. And when played right, these overly unappreciated issues often lead to huge gains, but it is all about timing. There is no mystery here; you all know and/or have heard about “penny stocks” i.e. those that trade under USUS$5.00/shr on US markets (10’s of thousands of stocks trade on other world markets under USUS$5.00/shr and are not referred to in the same pejorative manner). This is just a label (designed to diminish their value and keep you away, IMO). The fact is that there are many, many studies made over the years that prove that these stocks outperform the overall market, and when there is a steady new Bull Market, the little stocks (small caps, micro and mini caps) lead the Charge. As a class, they are the most undiscovered and underappreciated sector of stocks and the sector where the biggest chance ends up big winners on a consistent basis. I call them Little Gems; they are indeed Wall Street's buried treasure for those who wish to go treasure hunting. Here, in the RedRoadmaster, I work to uncover solid, moneymaking companies whose shares are grossly undervalued and virtually undiscovered, and they sell for USUS$5 or less a share. And do not forget to always include some small, mini and micro cap (pennies and juniors) sues in your sights; they can give you explosive percentage returns like no others. Savvy traders do not wait for the stock market to hit bottom, recover or get toppy; they do not double down or resort to tricky, desperation moves. They make simple moves on good data and bank some gains. Do not think get rich - think get rich slowly; it works. Even if you know absolutely nothing about how to start making a living in the stock market, and want to learn how to do it, the first step is to learn from someone who knows how to do it successfully. The stock market is about success, and the lifestyle that comes with it, but it must be done carefully, both by picking the issues and in the trading of them, because one wants to make money doing it independently and without stress. You can’t reverse your “bad plays”. Breathe through your nose, count to 10 and move ahead. Go forward, and only focus on what the opportunities are in front of you to win in the stock market game. You do not live in the scrapbook, and always take what the market gives. A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step (Confucius); Download and read and study “Knowledge is Power,” my e-Book, its Free. Always remember that we look at the risk first and decide how to manage it before ever entering a position. Yes, losses will be incurred; it is part of this and any business, and not a bad thing if they are controlled. Again, think “get rich steady" and not "get rich quick" and think Education! The Bull is charging, and this perhaps this the best investing scenario since the early 80's. It is happening now and savvy traders and investors are positioned and in the action. Remember to always be nimble and take what the market gives. 34

Have a great week, and stay tuned. Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. aka The RedRoadmaster PS: Some of you know that I am the Co-Founder of and Also check out, and you can also follow me on Google News Paul Ebeling. Let me know your thoughts. Please reply to

Disclaimer The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. It is designed to help the reader learn the fine art of technical analysis. Links are provided to articles and stories referenced in this Report. Some statements and expressions are the points of view and/or opinions of Red Roadmaster™, aka Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. and the contributors. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. I am not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein has been obtained from readily available sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. I do not receive compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this Report. Please feel free to print and/or send The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices ™ to your friends and associates, no permission is necessary. ©2002/2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE OR IN OUR NEWSLETTERS. Red Roadmaster is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment advisor either within the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The information contained on our website or in any of our newsletters should be viewed as commercial advertisement and is not intended to be investment advice. Any information found on our website, or in any of our newsletters is not provided to any particular individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. 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Always research your own investments and consult with a registered investment adviser or licensed stockbroker before investing. Information contained in the Red Roadmaster Market Report will contain “forward looking statements” as defined under section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Subscribers are cautioned not to place undue reliance upon these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties outside of our control that could cause actual operations or results to differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could affect performance include, but are not limited to, those factors that are discussed in each profiled company’s most recent reports or registration statements filed with the SEC. You should consider these factors in evaluating the forward looking statements included in the report and not place undue reliance upon such statements. Red Roadmaster is committed to providing factual information on the companies that are profiled. However, we do not provide any assurance as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, including information regarding a profiled company’s plans or ability to effect any planned or proposed actions. We have no first-hand knowledge of any profiled company’s operations and therefore cannot comment on their capabilities, intent, resources, nor experience and we make no attempt to do so. Statistical information, dollar amounts, and market size data was provided by the subject company and related sources which we believe to be reliable. To the fullest extent of the applicable law, we will not be liable to any person or entity for the quality, accuracy, completeness, reliability, or timeliness of the information provided in this report, or for any direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, special or punitive damages that may arise out of the use of information we provide to any person or entity (including, but not limited to, lost profits, loss opportunities, trading losses, and damages that may result from any inaccuracy or incompleteness of this information). We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http// and FINRA at http//


Paul Ebeling Weekly Wall St Report, NUE, CWPR, FLSR  

Paul Ebeling Weekly Wall St Report, NUE, CWPR, FLSR