The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices + ™ Featuring Crude Oil, Gold, and Forex Technical Up-dates
Vol. 060710 # 1 Copyright 7 June 2010
Date Line Hong Kong (SAR) China
The Red Roadmaster™ Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Editor/Compiler/Analyst/Commentator You can now follow us on Twitter please go to http//twitter.com/EbelingHefferna and join in.
Spring Edition # 13 June 7, 2010 600 am US EDT Dear Reader, You can read my timely Market Reports, and Up to Date International News daily and weekly on www.livetradingnews.com , www.paulebeling.com , www.aseanaffairs.com and www.pinnacledigest.com as I round up relevant global market news and technical analysis up-dated daily. + You can see many of my articles and commentary on Google News http//news.google.com/news/search? aq=f&pz=1&cf=all&ned=us&hl=en&q=paul+ebeling + now on Now Up and Running www.paulebeling.com have a look please. Also seen on ASEAN Affairs www.aseanaffairs.com
Today’s Stock Talk Features AutoZone (AZO) See Below See them all at www.livetradingnews.com, www.paulebeling.com, www.aseanaffairs.com and coming soon www.redroadmaster.com
Listen to "The Red Roadmaster" AKA Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr., on the Big Biz Show with Bob "Sully" Sullivan every Thursday at 140p PST on the CBS/Business Talk Radio Network. Go to www.bigbizshow.com for your local listing and or go to www.livetradingnews.com to tune in Live.
Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the Week ending 4 June 2010 US stocks dive over 3%, touch the February lows and Bounce into the close Wall Street stocks turned South Friday, with all major indexes falling 3% and the DJIA closing below 10,000. The S&P 500 fell below 1,070, a Key support level. The index closed just below the intra-day low the market reached during the so-called "flash crash" on May 6. The DJIA lost 323.31, or 3.15%, to close at 9,931.97. All Dow 30 components closed lower, led by Caterpillar, whose share fell 5.48%. The S&P 500 lost 37.95, or 3.44%, to close at 1,064.88 and the NAS tallied up a minus 83.86 pts, or 3.64%, to end the session at 2,219.17. Friday's sharp fall erased all the gains of the 2 past sessions, taking major averages down about 2% on the week. The US market gapped opened down on Friday (all gaps have to be filled eventually) after Key monthly jobs data fell short of some market expectation. Are you watching the VIX? The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX .VIX, Wall Street's barometer of fear, was up 20% to 35.48 on the Day and the highest level on the shortened Week. According to the Labor Department, nonfarm payrolls rose by 431, 000 in May, the largest gain since March 2000. The number was still lower than economists had expected and the bulk of the growth was in government jobs, boosted by temporary government hiring for the Y 2010 Census. The unemployment rate fell to 9.7% from 9.9% in April, slightly better than the 9.8% unemployment rate economists had forecast. But economists believed it would rise again in the coming months. Sell off in the market accelerated in the last hour of the session touching the February lows and then bounced on heavy volume into the close. The Euro broke below the 1.20 to the USD level for the first time since Y 2006, we at LTN are targeting the EUR at the 1.14-1.18 vs. USD in here. The Euro has fallen more than 10% since April 26, the day the Dow hit its highest mark on the year. Crude Oil lost more than 4% and settled at the lowest level since May 26. BP Plc began capturing some Crude Oil escaping from the ruptured oil well in the Gulf of Mexico. The company also put off a decision on whether to pay its next quarterly dividend as some politicians have demanded. BP's US listed shares fell 5.3% to US$37.16. The Bright Spots: US Treasuries fared well, as the benchmark 10 yr T-Note spiked more than 1 full pt to drop its yield is below 3.20%.
Gold was also a beneficiary of a flight to safety. It closed pit trade with a 0.6% gain at $1217.20 oz., and it was not the only commodity to find favor. Nat Gas prices climbed 2.3% to settle pit trade at US$4.82 per MMBtu as the energy component extended its rise off of the past session's high. Advancing Sectors: (None) Declining Sectors: Industrials (-4.6%), Financials (-4.0%), Materials (-3.9%), Consumer Discretionary (3.8%), Energy (-3.5%), Tech (-3.2%), Utilities (-3.0%), Health Care (-3.0%), Consumer Staples (-2.6%), Telecom (-2.3%) There was strong participation behind Friday's sell off. The trading volume on the NYSE surpassed 1.6B/shrs, which is above the 50-day average of about 1.4b/shrs. This session's declining volume outnumbered advancing volume by more than 130-to-1. Volume and Breadth: About 11.05B/shrs traded on the NYSE, the AMEX and NAS, surpassing last year's estimated daily average of 9.65B. This session's declining volume outnumbered advancing volume by more than 130-to-1.
Market Indexes Technical Analysis
Very Bearish (-0.52)
Very Bearish (-0.57)
Todayâ€™s Stock Talk Features AutoZone (AZO) Last Look June 12, 2009 AutoZone, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories. Its stores offer various products primarily to do-it-yourself customers for use in cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products. The company also offers commercial sales program that provides commercial credit, and delivery of parts and other products to local, regional, and national repair garages, dealers, service stations, and public sector accounts. In addition, it sells the ALLDATA brand automotive diagnostic and repair software, as well as automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products on the Web at www.autozone.com. As of August 29, 2009, AutoZone operated 4,229 stores in the United States and Puerto Rico, and 188 stores in Mexico. The company was founded in 1979 and is based in Memphis, Tennessee.
Last Trade 188.89
resist. 194.83 3 resist. 191.22 2 supp
Recent CandleStick Analysis Very Bullish
Candle Bullish Engulfing
This Week on the Economic Front June 7th Monday Consumer Credit, April (15:00): -$2.0B expected, $2.0B past June 9th Wednesday
Wholesale Inventories, April (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.4% past Crude Oil Inventories, 06/05 (10:30): -1.90M past June 10th Thursday Initial Claims, 06/05 (08:30): 450K expected, 453K past Continuing Claims, 06/29 (08:30): 4600K expected, 4666K past Trade Balance, April (08:30): -$41.2B expected, -$40.4B past Treasury Budget, May (14:00): $154.0B expected, $189.6B past
June 11th Friday Retail Sales, May (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% past Retail Sales ex-auto, May (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% past Michigan Sentiment, June (09:55): 74.8 expected, 73.6 past Business Inventories, April (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.4% past
This Week on the Earnings Front Once again there are no company earning’s reports that can move the markets this week. The complete list for this week: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20100607.html
The Most Asked Question Last Week: The Big Q: Red, What constitutes a good stock? The Big A: A good stock is a stock thart make the owner a profit. Examples: a stock whose price is falling can be a good stock if Shorted or bought Puts on it or other strategy that takes advantage of a falling issue, providing a good result, Profit. Be aware that most retail traders seek stocks that are going up in price. They are Bullish by nature and define a good stock as one that is increasing in price. So let’s address the Bullish POV as it pertains to Good Stock…
Redâ€™s Edge and in the Trenches In my 40 yrs experience in the markets I have learned that retail traders and investors confuse a good company with a good stock. Looking back 5+ years, we have seen that there are lots of good companies that have not been good stocks as defined by an increase in value over the time frame . Example: the DJIA (30 components). Sure they are well known, and the index is followed by everyone who is interested in the stock markets. Granted they are Giants in their fields, but how have they done over the past 5 years? In terms of capital appreciation have the Dow 30 been good stocks overall during the period? When we look at those that have not split during those last 5 yrs, we see that as of June 1 st , many are trading at less than they were at the beginning of Y 2005. Among those that are down from their price at the beginning of Y 2005 are the following: AA, AXP, BAC, DD, GE, HD, INTC, JNJ, KFT, MMM, PFE, T, and VZ, and some like JPM and MSFT are trading about the same price they were trading back at the beginning of Y 2005. So, even after the strong run-up from March 9, 2009 to the now about 50% of the DJIA, some of the best and strongest companies in the World, stood still or lost ground. The facts say this: a good company is not necessarily a good stock, in terms of capital appreciation over a given period of time, and buying and holding even great companies often leaves the investor disappointed over the long hall. For sure there are other things than capital appreciation that a investor or trader may consider when defining what may or may not be a good stock. Safety may be a consideration as may be the frequency and yield of dividends. The definition of a good stock must come from the investors goals incorporated into the Plan. It may be that some investors do notcare whether the stock they own falls in price over a 5 yr period as long as they are receiving regular dividends and can write out of the money covered calls to bring in income while for others it may seem inappropriate to hold a position that is going the wrong way over a 5 yr period. It is the in the players goals for the Plan. Again, there are many ways to make, and lose money in the markets. It is clearly worthwhile to learn how to make money and how to reduce or avoid losses if one is going to venture into this game. For if you are not armed with Knowledge it is better to forget the possibility of financial gain in the markets and simply live life on the sidelines. The risks for the ignorant are huge, and in this action, Ignorance is not bliss.
Safety is an illusion. You have all heard and experienced that, ask yourself, Is it safe to walk down steps, take a walk, cross the street, drive your car, sail your boat, swim in the ocean, fly your plane, ski and scuba dive, etc, etc, etc. So it is fair to say that it is not likely to have complete safety in life. In the investment world, highly rated bonds were considered safe in the past, but that has been proved not necessarily so. In the world of stock trading safety is established with the exit strategy, and like most safety it is imperfect, at best, but it does work pretty well if you have established a good plan. And as a player/trader you must begin with a clear understanding what is adequate safety for you. This column talks about the â€œPlanâ€? throughout the year, Plan your work and work your Plan is a reoccurring theme here. It is your money so for sure it is your responsibility. Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power! Again the Reminder on Risk Risk is everywhere including trading the markets; you must learn to manage risk. When you seek profits in trading markets there is a certain factor that creeps; it is the "Greed" factor; then comes the Risk factor that gives rise to the Fear factor in trading. Likely, many bad trades are the results of a misunderstanding of/or an initial failure to pay attention to risk. Once that risk becomes real for many folks, it can turn into fear and panic. Risk means we can lose something we have, and often traders fail to realize just how much is at risk until it is too late for them One of the most compelling facts regarding risk of loss in the market is that if a position loses 50%, it must then double, i.e. move up 100% to get back to even. It is important to note that risk in the buying of stock in the market is one of the riskiest things on the planet. When buying a stock, the total investment is at risk. And as we have seen recently, formerly great companies can fall to Zero. You ask, Red Are there ways to reduce the risk of losing my entire investment when buying stocks? Sure, we have discussed them in previous articles. One is employ stop loss orders in place or trailing stop loss orders. In most situations, these orders can work to prevent losing everything. It is unlikely that a stock will drop from USUS$50 to US$ Zero overnight, and most stocks that fail often post warning signs; and while they often fall fast, they usually take a bit of time to hit Zero bottom. In such circumstances, the stop loss may work to preserve capital. Here is another way to protect an asset (some of us call it Insurance) That is to buy a protective Put. A Put option is a contract whereby the buyer of the Put has the right, but not the obligation, to force someone to buy his stock at a pre-determined price called the strike price any time before the option expires. 8
To obtain that right, the buyer of a Put pays a premium. The situation is at least analogous to an insurance policy where the insured (stock owner) pays a premium in order to assure that a loss is limited to the premium, plus any deductible. You can learn about managing risk with options but the major risk in options strategies is that options expire, so your puts and calls only have value until expiration; and assuming no change in the price of the stock, the call becomes less and less valuable as time passes, until there is no time left. Insurance… Another thought that is often espoused is to diversify. There are differing schools of thought regarding diversification and there are many ways to diversify. The above discussion lists some of the ways traders reduce and manage risk in a stock purchase transaction. All of the above is intended to motivate you to seek a greater understanding of Risk and in doing so help you Win. Again, think Education First. For news and information please go to www.livetradingnews.com, www.paulebeling.com and www.aseanaffairs.com sign up for RSS feeds on the latest US Market News, ASEAN and World News, Twitter, and the Hot List, it’s Free
Some ask, Red what is the reason for writing Red's Edge? Simple; I wish to help people succeed in the business of trading markets. And the proof is that I do not sell books or subscriptions to my markets reports or newsletters; it is all Free. This business is fun, challenging and rewarding in more ways than making money. My mates know that I do "my thing" to keep be sharp in my own endeavors. The Key is that a person can choose to believe or not believe, trust or not. The fact is that it is all just common sense and when applied diligently the risk is managed and lessened. The rest is up to you!
Download “Knowledge is Power,” Red’s Road to Riches, It is Free. The difference between winners and losers is that the winners take it seriously and they always add to their knowledge. They read, study, learn nuances, attend seminars, and sometimes use a coach or a mentor. Successful traders are not those who say coaching or seminars are too expensive. They understand that they can recoup such costs in a single trade. The unsuccessful folks have the opposite POV, shying away from and ignoring the benefits of a trading education because of the minimal cost. Remember, Knowledge is Power; it will change your life for the better. Red
My pal Wally Stein’s Words of Wisdom Buy Low, Sell High or at least in the Middle, Wally’s Lullaby Sooner or later, those who win are those who believe they can!
Red’s Quote of the Week: : “Do not find faults, find answers.” Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr, aka The RedRoadmaster.
_________________________________________________________ This Week’s In View Where's the New Bull Market Now? Likely you have been wondering why this market has been choppy lately. Well IMO it is because there is not a identifiable trend. And we all know that the Trend is our Friend, conversely when there is no Trend, there is no Friend One of the most fundamental requirements of being a player or an investor is knowing the Trend and playing into the action. We can all make money in Bear markets by trading Puts; you can make money in Bull markets by simply buying stocks. And yes, as I have told my doctor friends, you can make money in consolidating markets by selling options against core positions, plus many other strategies. But it is Key to know what kind of market we are playing in yes!
Above is a 10 yr chart of the S&P 500. Each candlestick is a month; the 3 lines are MAs (moving averages). I call this chart my Drill Instructor (DI). It tells me when to Buy, when to Short, and when to sit just keep my powder dry. Here is how it works: when the lines are equidistant and trending, we are in a Bull or a Bear market, and when the lines are crossing or not in parallel, we are in a transitional market or consolidating market from my POV.. There have been 4 transitions over the last 10 yrs on the S&P 500. Ok, this is a tool only and it is not perfect but it is a good place to begin. You could have invested with confidence midway through 2004 and sold near the top in Y 2008. It would have gotten you out near the tops in Yâ€™s 2000 and 2008. My DI would have put you on the Short side in Y 2001. At this moment I see no no long-term trend in the US markets. And thus I have no confidence in the direction of the market up or down in here. Hence I do not wish to be US Market focused, period. There individual stocks in Bull runs and there are Bull markets elsewhere. Examples belowâ€Ś Hey but have a look at AutoZone it is on fire. People are fixing their own cars, and will keep them longer. I have made 3 trips my local AZ store in the past month to check out the action, the store is clean and well arranges, the staff courteous and helpful, the prices reasonable (yes I bought some car stuff), and there were several customers in the store each time I was there.
Another Big Winner has been BIDU, the Chinese search engine, China sent Google packing, and BIDU headed North! Have a look
I have been telling my friends and readers for the past few weeks to tune out the mainstream media, if you listen to them (all but Jim Cramer for once) that there are simply no opportunities now. The fact is that there are not "buy and hold" products from our POV here at LTN, but there are many trading opportunities if you do your homework. Today we are in a game of stock picking, trading and hedging.
Check out the Mongolian Stock Exchange: It has gone from 4,719 this time last year to 9,876, that after the worst winter on record decimated the country's livestock. Friend, that's a 109% gain for those playing at home.
Heffo and I believe that this Bull Run is just getting started + it is cheap. Right Mate? This is the emerging market story. It is what South Korea, Indonesia, and Vietnam were 12 yrs ago. A number of those stocks went 100:1 in the past decade. Thailandâ€™s SET is there now, as are many of the ASEAN markets. We all remember when Brazil, Chile, and Mexico were places investors avoided. Petrobras (PBR) went from US$2 /shr in Y 2002, to US$80/shr in Y 2008. We believe that kind of opportunity will repeat in Mongolia. Again, the Wall Street adage, there's always a bull market somewhere, is true. You look and you find. Tune out the noise, forget the naysayers, do your homework, do not key into the feeling sorry for yourself syndrome and fall into investment depression. Think! You do not have to play into their Game, got to the movies, have fun! When the US markets are uncertain, do not buy them, there are opportunities outside the USA, we are in a Global market now. Knowledge is Power! Stay tunedâ€ŚPaul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
Chartists Plot Your Points US Key Indices Support and Resistance
DJIA: Close 9931.97 Resistance: 10,120 the October 2009 high 10,285 the late December 2009 consolidation high The 200 day SMA: 10,299 10,365 the late September 2008 low 10,496 the November 2009 high The 50 day EMA: 10,543 10,609 the Mid-September 2008 interim low 10,730 the January 2010 high 10,920 the May 2010 high 11,100 the July 2008 low 11,205 the April closing high 11,734 from 11-98 high Support: 9829 the September 2008 closing high 9918 the September 2008 high 9855 the early September 2009 high in its lateral range 9835 the late September 2009 high & the February 2010 low 9774 the May 2010 intra-day low
S&P 500: Close 1064.88 Resistance: 1070 is the late September 2009 high 1078 is the October range low
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 high) 1101 is the October 2009 high 1106 is the September 2008 low The 200 day SMA: 1107 1114 is the November 2009 high 1119 is the early December intra-day high 1131 to 1136 the January 2010 consolidation range 1133 a September 2008 intra-day low The 50 day EMA: 1133 1151 the January 2010 high 1156 the Sept 2008 low 1170 the March 2010 high 1174 the May 2010 high 1181 the April 2010 sell off low Support: 1044 the October 2008 intra-day high and the February 2010 low 1040 is the May 2010 low 1020 the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation 946 from June 2009
NAS: Close 2219.17 Resistance: The 200 day SMA: 2234 2245 from July 2008 2275 the February 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral high 2292 a low from January 2008 2319 the September 2008 high 2320 the January 2010 high 2324-2370 a range of resistance from early 2008 The 50 day EMA: 2336 2382-2395 from 2008 2412-2415 a series of highs and lows in 2007, 2008 2434 the May 2010 high 2453 the August 2008 high Support: 2210 from September 2008 2205 the November 2009 high 2185 the December 2004 high 2177 is a low from March 2008 2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom) 2168 the September 2009, intra-day high 2167 the July 2008 intra-day low 2155 the March 2008 intra-day low 2100 the February 2010 low
__________________________________________________________ Hot Topics for this Week Apple Alert: The World waits for Apple's latest iPhone due today Appleâ€™s next-generation iPhone, which CEO Steve Jobs is expected to unveil today, is expected to set new standards in multimedia content and function to Wow consumers (and Wall Street). 16
The iPhone is an unqualified blockbuster that is the company’s main profit growth driver, and its share price is near record highs. The bid is made tougher with the early success of the iPad tablet computer, which many say has already created a new market. Competition from a host of well-received SmartPhones based on Google’s Android operating system is also growing, pressuring Apple to raise the bar higher. The “iPhone 4.0 will keep them ahead of the Game. Only last year, Research in Motion Ltd was seen as Apple’s top rival, as the company’s Blackberry remains the SmartPhone of choice for many corporations, Apple has made inroads in that market as security concerns addressed by the Blackberry have eased. More than 70% of Fortune 100 companies have deployed or piloted the iPhone, according to Apple. But the iPhone’s prime target remains the consumer, in a market where it goes head-to-head with Android phones from vendors like HTC, Motorola and Samsung Electronics. Longer-term, investors are focused on the iPhone’s spread into international markets including China, Apple’s pricing strategy, and when the device will be available through another US carrier besides AT&T. Steve Jobs takes the stage at Apple’s developers conference in San Francisco Monday following a hectic public schedule, where Wall Street is expecting to get its first formal look at the 4th generation iPhone. The phone will likely be faster, have more capacity, a better screen and battery life, and a front-facing camera, all nice additions. “There will be some pretty cool things on stage with Steve, but at the end of the day we know the general functionality,” said Broadpoint AmTech analyst Brian Marshall. Some features that iPhone users have long clamored for, such as multi-tasking, will also be added. The iPhone, introduced in Y 2007, arguably created the modern SmartPhone industry. The template pioneered by the iPhone, a roughly 4-inch slab with a touchscreen interface offering quick access to thousands of apps, has become the standard for Web-surfing handsets. But the market has since grown heavy with competitors, particularly slick SmartPhones based on Android.“Android is the only real contender to the throne,” said Rodman & Renshaw analyst Ashok Kumar. “Nokia’s position continues to fade, RIM has yet to make traction on the consumer side, and Microsoft could end up being too little, too late.” Nokia’s Symbian mobile operating system is the global market leader and RIM’s platform is # 2, but both are losing market share, according to Gartner data. The iPhone’s global share surged to more than 15% in Q-1 Y 2010, making it # 3. Android was # 4 with close to 10% of the market, a huge increase from the previous year and gaining, Gartner data show. Milanesi said the iPhone has done well internationally, particularly in Europe, but still has plenty of room to grow in Asia, where competition is fierce and SmartPhone preferences can vary widely from market to market. The iPhone is available in around 90 countries and on more than 150 carriers. Apple sold a record 8.75M iPhones in its latest Q. That accounted for 40% of revenue, with margins estimated at roughly 60%. Many players on Wall Street expect the iPhone to arrive at Verizon no later than Y 2011, and perhaps as early as this fall. Apple is not expected to announce a Verizon iPhone Monday. AT&T has come under
criticism from iPhone users over its network quality, although Jobs said this week he expects to see improvement this Summer. AT&T said Wednesday it will stop offering an unlimited pricing plan for new subscribers to its mobile data services, which could help improve the speed of its network in some areas by cutting down on networkclogging downloads. Piper Jaffray analyst Christopher Larsen said the timing of that announcement, days before Appleâ€™s event, was no coincidence. It could help the carrier keep its exclusive iPhone deal for longer. How Apple chooses to price its newest iPhone, as well as the older models, will be closely watched, given Appleâ€™s enviable margin profile. The latest model iPhone, the 3-GS, starts at US$199 with an AT&T subsidy, with the older model 3-G priced at US$99. Many savvy observers doubt that there will be any surprise announcements Monday, but with Apple we never know. The rumors in the "air" include a Web-based version of iTunes, and a new version of Apple TV. Stay tuned. ---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
BP caps blown-out well in Gulf of Mexico The British Petroleum (BP) has attached a cap to a blown-out well on the seabed in its latest attempt to control the massive Crude Oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the US Coast Guard said Thursday night. However, Coast Guard officials told CNN that they are unsure if the new method will succeed in containing the Crude Oil spill. The cap was placed atop the damaged riser pipe of the well, but oil and gas continued to escape, according to US media reports. BP CEO Tony Hayward said the next 12 to 24 hours will "give us an indication of how successful this attempt will be." The latest development followed days of setbacks for BP's efforts to cap the well, which has leaked out hundreds of thousands of barrels of Crude Oil a day for the last several weeks.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
G-20 financial leaders issue joint communique on financial reform The meeting of the G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors Saturday ended in South Korea's southeastern port city of Busan, leading to a joint communique calling for member countries' continued efforts on financial reform. In the face of the lingering EuroZone fiscal debt risks, financial leaders of the 20 member countries had in-depth discussions on cooperative measures to boost up fiscal soundness and spent time on developing a basket of policy options to be brought up to the discussion table at the Toronto Summit. The 2 day meeting drew up a joint communique signed by participant leaders, although there have been some thorny issues, such as a global bank levy, accompanied by disputes among participant leaders. 18
South Korean Financial Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun, wrapping up the meeting, highly exalted the event, saying it succeeded in reaching an agreement despite discords among the participant countries on some issues. "With respect to the content of the communique, we have reached an almost-perfect result without major disputes, which I think is the most outstanding outcome of the meeting," Yoon told the closing press conference. The bank levy (aka the Obama Tax) the core of the disputes, was not elaborated in detail in the communique, only endorsed as a need for a fair and substantial contribution towards paying for any burdens to repair the banking system or fund resolution.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com JOINT COMMUNIQUE The joint communique was founded on the Framework for Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth, which is a key mechanism to meet the immediate challenges of supporting the global recovery and midterm shared objectives. Based on the framework were adopted a range of policy options that will later be discussed in details at the June 2010 Toronto Summit, according to the communique. The leaders agreed on further progress on financial repair, requiring greater transparency and further strengthening of financial firms' balance sheets and better corporate governance. They also vowed to speed up in reaching agreement on stronger capital and liquidity standards as the core of the reform agenda, calling on the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to propose internationally agreed rules to improve the quantity and quality of bank capital. The proposal also urged to discourage excessive leverage and risk taking by the November 2010 Seoul Summit, the communique said. Also, the leaders agreed on the need to reduce moral hazard, while pledging to accelerate regulation and supervision of hedge funds, credit rating agencies, compensation practices and OTC derivatives in a internationally consistent and non-discriminatory way. The communique also remarked on the World Bank's reform voice to increase the voting power of developing countries, while protecting the smallest poor nations, embracing the proposal. The agreement also called for continued institutional reforms at international financial institutions (IFIs) led by the World Bank. Constructing global financial safety nets was also one of the major items on the communique, with the G20 countries acknowledging a need for national, regional and multilateral efforts to deal with capital volatility and prevent crisis contagion. However, bank levy, the core of the disputes, was not elaborated in detail in the communique, only endorsed as a need for a fair and substantial contribution towards paying for any burdens to repair the banking system or fund resolution.
The EU backs austerity measures despite trade union opposition European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso Friday expressed the need for fiscal consolidation of European countries to restore confidence in Europe's economy after a meeting with trade union and employer groups. "I underlined the need for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms," Barroso said after the talks. "Only if we are serious about getting our house in order and only if we really do our best to work for a sustainable future, we will be able to re-establish confidence in our economy and growth." EU member states, including Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy, have announced austerity plans to cut public deficits in a bid to restore investor confidence in their economies and in the Euro. The fiscal consolidation measures have drawn strong opposition from trade unions. The European Trade Union Confederation,which represents 82 union groups in 36 European nations, said public expenditure reduction would harm Europe's long-term economic recovery, especially for those countries “not in distress." "Europe as a whole should be able to reduce the costs to mobilize itself and inject some confidence to European economy,”ETUC leader John Monks told reporters. "At this moment, things are going at the opposite direction." Monks said a request for the meeting with the EU leaders was“out of despair and alarm”and during the gathering he expressed his concerns over “quite a bit of social unrest in some countries." The ETUC declared last Wednesday a plan to organize a "European Day of Action" on Sept. 29 in Brussels and other cities to protest spending cuts by European governments. "We will keep on the pressure in the months ahead. We don't want a bleak mid-winter for the unemployed,” Monks said. ---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
Wages dispute at Honda's China plant settled The labor dispute at a spare parts plant of Japan's 2nd largest automaker Honda in south China's Guangdong Province has been settled. Honda Auto Parts Manufacturing Company, a factory wholly-owned by Honda Motors Co. in Foshan City, Guangdong, said in a statement late Friday that representatives from its management and workers had reached a consensus on pay after days of consultations. The document gave no details about pay rises or any new remuneration packages, though it offered an apology of the company's management for "inconvenience" as a result of the dispute. Workers at the spare parts plant went on strike on May 17 demanding a pay rise of 800 Yuan a month. Honda had to close 4 assembly plants, including 3 in Guangdong and 1 in the central Hubei Province, due to lack of supplies of gear-boxes and other accessories as a result. The workers returned to work Wednesday morning while wage negotiations continued. All 4 assembly plants had restarted operation by Saturday.
A Trade Union official in Foshan's Nanhai District, where the parts plant is located, said earlier the average wage of the striking workers was 1,200 Yuan a month, slightly higher than the local average but far below the workers' expectations. The company said it would seriously look at its management processes, improve communication with the workers and improve labor relations. Its management also apologized for any "inconveniences" caused by the dispute.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
Leading players emerge in Key Frontier Market Sectors Telecoms MTN is the first African company to sponsor a football World Cup. The telecom group’s prominence during the forthcoming tournament will be a reflection of the international clout of one of South Africa’s business champions. Under the stewardship of Phuthuma Nhleko, its chief executive, MTN has become the continent’s biggest mobile provider as measured by subscribers. Although efforts to create an emerging markets telecoms giant via alliances with Indian groups have fallen through, MTN has won a 50% market share in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation. Another big winner in the sector has been Mo Ibrahim, the Sudanese telecoms magnate. The group he built, Celtel, operated in more than 14 countries by 2005, when he sold it for US$3.4B to Zain of Kuwait. India’s Bharti this year bought Zain’s African assets in a US$10.7B (€8.8B, £7.3B) deal that underlined the attraction of an industry that has done much to transform African lives. Resources Exploiting raw materials remains the preserve of North American, European and Australian energy and mining groups, with new Asian arrivals muscling in. But a handful of African companies are making their mark. The continent’s richest man, Aliko Dangote of Nigeria, has built an empire on staple goods ranging from cement to sugar. Angola’s state-owned Sonangol has become a significant oil producer, but private energy companies are few and small. Johannesburg remains the spiritual home of mining companies, but many have shifted their headquarters to London or elsewhere. Sam Jonah of Ghana made Ashanti Goldfields into the first African company to list in New York. By Y 2004, it had merged with South Africa’s AngloGold to create a global giant. Banking Several African banks have come of age over the past decade. Leading the pack is Standard, perhaps the only truly pan-African lender. The $5.5B sale of a 20% stake to Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in Y 2007 was followed by a tie-up with Russia’s Troika last year. First Rand, the only big South African bank without a large foreign shareholder, was the first to appoint a black chief executive, Sizwe Nxasana. He, too, is cultivating emerging market links, particularly with India. After a breakneck consolidation from Y 2004, Nigerian banks have been chastened by the stock market. However, First Bank, United Bank for Africa, Zenith and Guaranty Trust Bank, among others, stand strong and are planning bond issues at home and abroad. One Nigerian banker, Arnold Ekpe, has shown that a fast-growing cross-border bank does not need to be based in the continent’s financial centers. Founded in Y 1985, by the end of last year Ecobank had 21
US$9B in assets across 27 countries, all from a base in the tiny west African nation of Togo.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
Ford & GM report record May auto sales in China Ford Motor Co. and General Motors reported double-digit growth in China sales in May and new monthly records. GM said Thursday sales by the company and its local partners totaled 196,400 vehicles and those by its main Chinese joint venture, Shanghai GM, rose 48.7% from a year earlier to 83,302. Ford said its China sales rose 17.8% over a year earlier to 23,742 vehicles. The company said it was the 16th straight monthly increase. Global automakers are looking to China, which last year overtook the United States as the biggest auto market by vehicles sold, to drive demand amid weak sales elsewhere. GM said total sales for the first five months of the year rose 53.9% over a year earlier to 1,032,665 vehicles. "We are well on our way toward record annual sales," Kevin Wale, president of the GM China Group, said in a statement.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
ASEAN: Indonesia's Telkom and Bakrie Telecom in talks on CDMA tie-up State-owned telecom giant PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia is in talks with mobile phone operator PT Bakrie Telecom over a potential "consolidation" of the two companies'low-cost CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) units, local media reported on Saturday. Telkom president director Rinaldi Firmansyah on Friday confirmed that the two companies were in talks about Telkom's PT Telkom Flexi and Bakrie Telecom's Esia brand, both of which are CDMA providers. "Whether it's a merger or an acquisition will depend on how the talks progress," he was quoted by the Jakarta Globe as saying. Telkom was also in talks with other local operators about Flexi and was open to a variety of options, Rinaldi said. Telkom revealed in March that it planned to spin off the Flexi unit to give the subsidiary more options to expand via acquisitions or through a joint venture, perhaps with an international partner. "We will spin off the CDMA unit before we proceed with consolidation," Rinaldi said, adding that it would lead to cost savings of between 10 & 20% Meanwhile, Bakrie Telecom's director for corporate services Rahmat Djunaidi, however, denied that there were already talks with Telkom over the consolidation of Esia and Telkom Flexi. "There has not been any talks or plans leading to the consolidation. Currently, we're focusing on organic development of the company," he said.?
Muhammad Said Didu, secretary at the State-Owned Enterprises Ministry, said the ministry had yet to receive a formal letter from Telkom concerning its consolidation plan with Bakrie Telecom.? "The ministry is supporting Telkom's plan to improve and advance. As long as it's profitable, the ministry will support their plan," he said.? Indonesian CDMA market has been considered too crowded, which is driving the moves.?Indonesia's CDMA telecommunication system offers low cost communication compared to the GSM (Global System for Mobile communication) system. ---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
BRIC: China plants deep stakes in Africa, shakes up the "old order" China’s engagement with Africa has had a transforming effect on the dark continent’s relations with the outside world, shaking up an old order dominated by foreign donors and the former colonial powers. Trade between Africa and China rose tenfold, from US$10B (€8B, £6.9B) to US$108B, between Y's 2000 and 2008, dipping back last year during the global recession. Chinese direct investment is also up. Thanks to Asian demand, world prices for African commodities have risen strongly over the decade. The price of African imports, increasingly sourced from Asia, have also decreased. Heading into a decade in which investment in infrastructure will be a pastity for most African governments and their development partners, Chinese construction companies now have a leading market share. A series of multibillion-dollar minerals-for-infrastructure deals are seeing them build dams, roads, power plants, refineries and railways across the continent. As other foreign suitors have awoken to the intensifying competition, African countries have found their bargaining power greatly improved. “Increased interest in Africa’s minerals from Chinese corporations and other new partners is an opportunity for governments to reap the fiscal rewards of competitive bidding. African states must use this opportunity to generate higher public resources,” said a report published last month by the African Development Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese entrepreneurs have arrived in the wake of major projects, and can be found selling car parts in Accra, doughnuts in Douala, growing vegetables near Khartoum, and opening restaurants everywhere. Political ties between China’s ruling Communists and African political parties are also evolving, one of several concerns for western policymakers who worry that the trade-off that evolved in the 1990's between good governance and democracy in Africa in return for aid has been significantly eroded.---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
At the Movies with The Hollywood Reporter (aka THR)
‘Greek’ rocks but ‘Shrek’ reigns at # 1 Four feature debuts can't shake Ogre's three-peat at the Top
The newbies didn't come close.
Universal's "Get Him to the Greek," an R-rated comedy about a drug-addled rocker, knocked off Lionsgate's action comedy "Killers" and two other wide openers but failed to keep DreamWorks Animation's 3D laugher "Shrek Forever After" from three-peating atop the domestic boxoffice with room to spare. The leggy Paramount-distributed pic fetched an estimated $25.3 million during the weekend for $183 million in cumulative coin through its third frame. Starring British actor and comedian Russell Brand, "Greek" rung up $17.4 million in second place, while "Killers" -toplined by Ashton Kutcher and Katherine Heigl -- registered $16.1 million in third place. Fox's live-action family comedy "Marmaduke" bowed limply with $11.3 million in sixth, and Warner Bros.-distributed sci-fi thriller "Splice" pieced together just $7.5 million to open in eighth. Disney's "Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time" fell 54% in its second weekend to $13.9 million in fourth place with a $59.5 cume. One rung lower, Warners' "Sex and the City 2" wooed $12.7 million for cume of $73.4 million, as a big-but-not-ugly 59% sophomore session drop bolstered exec hopes of developing a recast franchise prequel. Rentrak said the weekend top 10 rung up $120 million, or 24% less than top performers in a comparable frame last year, with industryites lost to explain yet another weak session in a soft start to the summer boxoffice. In a limited bow, Vitagraph/Phase 4's romantic comedy "Finding Bliss" found a thin $2,400 in a single New York venue. Elsewhere in the specialty market, "Micmacs" -- a dark comedy distributed by Sony Pictures Classics and Entertainment One in the U.S. and Canada, respectively -- added 31 playdates for a total 35 and grossed $140,434. That represented a sturdy $4,012 per engagement, as the cume for "Micmacs" climbed to $208,673. "Shrek Forever After" appears on track for a domestic campaign of at least $250 million-plus, though DWA marketing maven Anne Globe declined to project its ultimate performance. "The movie continues to hold very strongly," Globe allowed. "Shrek the Third" rung up $322.7 million in summer 2007; "Shrek 2" registered a franchise-best $441.2 million three summers earlier. The "Greek" cast also includes Jonah Hill ( "Funny People"), Sean Combs and Rose Byrne ("Knowing"). Nick Stoller -- who directed Brand in the same rock star role in 2008's "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" -- helmed the well-reviewed pic, with Judd Apatow among its producers. Opening audiences skewed 53% male, with 45% of patrons aged 30 or older. "It's in the wheelhouse of what we thought the opening would be," Uni distribution president Nikki Rocco said. "That bodes well, as I think the word of mouth is going to be very, very strong." "Greek" was produced for an estimated $40 million. Rated PG-13, "Killers" was directed by Robert Luketic ( "The Ugly Truth"). Critics were denied prerelease screenings of the pic, which drew opening audiences comprised 62% of females with 50% of patrons under age 25. Lionsgate CEO Jon Feltheimer recently said "Killers" likely would lose money if it didn't open with at least $20 million. But execs will hope the pic proves sufficiently playable to limit any loss. "I was happy that we were up 11% on Saturday over Friday," Lionsgate distribution topper David Spitz said. Tom Dey ("Failure to Launch") helmed "Marmaduke." The PG-rated pic co-stars Lee Pace ( "When in Rome") and Judy Greer ( "Barry Munday") with Owen Wilson voicing Marmaduke, one of several talking pets featured in the mutts-vs.-pedigrees yarn.
Family moviegoers dominated opening audiences, which were comprised 61% of females with 57% of patrons under age 25. "The opening was within our expectations," Fox senior vp distribution Bert Livingston said. "And with kids out of school, every day is a Saturday, so it's a solid start." An inexpensive but heavily marketed pickup by genre vet Joel Silver, "Splice" stars Adrien Brody and Sarah Polley ("Mr. Nobody") with Vincenzo Natali ("Nothing") directing. Its audiences skewed 58% male, with 62% of pic patrons aged 25 or older. "We're disappointed that the film didn't do better," Warners exec vp distribution Jeff Goldstein said. Looking ahead, two films open wide on Friday: Fox's big screen adaptation of classic TV series "The A-Team" and Sony's remake of "The Karate Kid," with Jaden Smith and Jackie Chan. ____________________________________________________________________________________
Current US Stock Market Sentiment + Bulls vs. Bears MARKET SENTIMENT Are you watching the VIX? Friday the VIX gapped higher. It still held a 20% gain on the session and still has higher lows put in. Perhaps it is not done at this, and maybe it is still factoring in issues that are facing the rest of the world. Remember, the market had sold back enough to bounce, but they have been piling additional problems on top of those we already know about. Friday, there were new issues dealing with a French bank, and little Hungary. When unexpected news hits the market, it trumps technical action. That is what we saw on Friday. The news was unexpected; it hit the market and sent VIX North. Though it is lower than the past highs. When the calm returns and it will, the VIX will start to head South on the bounces. So, if there is more selling this week that action will spike it higher. But for now, the big high was made almost two weeks ago, and it is normal to take a few weeks after that initial big spike is hit for the market to rally seriously. Look at the charts, I see that the bounce in the lateral move is not ready just yet. 1. VIX: 35.48; +6.02 2. VXN: 34.16; +4.78 3. VXO: 34.38; +5.6 4. Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; -0.11 NB: Are you watching the VIX? It always tells us when we are moving back to a more rational market.
*The Market Volatility Index (VIX) measures the volatility of the market. A recent news story described it as "the options market's gauge of investor fear." Traders use VIX as a general inverse indicator of market volatility and sentiment. High numbers mean that there's excess bearishness, and low numbers indicate excess bullishness. The VIX is updated intra-day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), using Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) bid/ask quotes. It was created in 1993. **The CBOE NAS Volatility Index (VXN) employs the same formula used to calculate US$VIX, which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. This formula is derived from a basket of put and call options. Some are out of the money, some in the money, and some at the money. The resulting US$VXN represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical 30-day option that is at the money. ***The VXO is the ticker created to track the "original VIX" that was calculated using the prices of S&P 100 options. The new VIX uses the ticker US$VIX and is calculated using the prices of S&P 500 options. The fundamental nature of the VXO is the same as the VIX, but it is less robust and not as simple as the VIX. Bulls vs. Bears This is a reading of the number of Bullish investment advisors vs. Bearish advisors. This indicator gives us a look at Bullish investors too bullish then everyone is in, and a Top is shaping up and visa-a-versa. Bulls are at 39.8% vs. 39.3. Holding rather flat after some substantial drops from 43.8%, 47.2%, and 56.0% before that. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness For your reference The Bulls are over the 35% level that is the Key level for a Bullish climate. Bears are at 28.4% vs. 29.2%. Surprising drop, but given the market's attempt to move higher, understandable. Still a big move up from 24.7% the week before where it held for a couple of weeks. Fell to 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the past leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. For you reference a break through the 35% threshold is considered Bullish, and the Bears hit a high on this run of 47.2%. Bearishness hit a 5 yr high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008.
What to expect this week and down the line… We have come to expect an up Monday off of a down Friday. Last Friday was way Down, let’s see if it gives us a way Up Monday today. The leaders went down to test the bottom of the consolidation range, that being said you cannot assume a rollover in here. They have been trading in a range and look pretty comfortable at this level, so we look for them to continue to move North in here (the move may have started in the last few minutes of Friday’s session). From my POV the S&P 500 looks OK but not great, and the NAS does not look bad, and is above the Key support levels. Let’s see if NAS holds now off of the test of the February 2010 lows. Fact: the Market is volatile in here, there is no direction or Trend to key off of. So what to do in here?
My POV is to be patient, sit on the sidelines unless you are savvy and understand how to play the short side of the market. When you see a opportunity, study it and perhaps put some dry powder money to work. The payoffs in here can be Big. If it breaks to the Northside, there is lots of room to run up. If it breaks Southside and you have made a good plan the potential gain to the downside is also big. We are at a Key spot in here, one where you can make money in either direction. But as you read above in the In View section, there are good stocks moving higher overall no matter the back and forth, trendless action of the market. The same applies to the weak issues that are heading South. So, you can play either way always taking what the market gives. But again be patient do not play too big. Look good setups, they are there, and the market moves in that direction, they will be the ones give you the best returns, i.e a Good Stock! The Rule always take what the market gives. Have a great week! All the best,
Crude Oil and Gold Focus Report w/Technical Outlooks The Commodity Market is focused on macro issues instead of fundamentals. Early last week, Crude Oil and industrial metals weakened after decline in China's PMI and ECB's report warning that banks in the EuroZone face EUR 90B and EUR 105 B, respectively, in Y's 2010 and 2011 in net write-downs this year on loans and securities. Risk appetite recovered in the middle of the week as economic data from the US and the EuroZone were generally encouraging. Crude Oil Crude Oil traded with high volatility but lacked direction last week. Earlier in the week, disappointing China PMI triggered worries over slowdown in economic growth and investors dumped Crude Oil. Recovery came on in the middle of the week and accelerated after inventory data. But the price fell Friday as US' employment report showed less-than-expected payroll growth in May. The front-month contract of WTI Crude Oil settled at 71.51 Friday, losing -4.15% from Thursday and -3.33% over the week. Brent Crude Oil also fell, sliding -2.61% on weekly basis to 72.09. After returning to premium over Brent, WTI Crude Oil fell again to discount as Cushing stock rose further.
According to the US Energy Department, Crude Oil inventory declined -1.90 mmb (consensus: -0.2 mmb) to 363.2 mmb in the week ended May 28. Cushing stock added modestly, by +0.27 mmb to 37.9 mmb. Moreover, gasoline stockpile drew -2.65 mmb to 219.0 mmb with most of the decline concentrated in PADD II. Production rose +1.65% but offset by +13.4% decline in imports. Demand rose +0.82% to 9.174M bpd. We expect further decline in coming weeks as driving season began last week. Distillate stockpile rose +0.45 mmb to 153.0 mmb. Imports fell -16.6% while production soared +3.68%. Demand edged higher, by +0.25%, at 4.031M bpd. In this week, the US Energy Department (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA) and the OPEC will release their latest forecasts on demand/supply outlook. In May, the IEA lowered its forecast on world oil demand in 2010 to 86.4M bpd while both the EIA and the OPEC revised their estimates up modestly. As the market has been worrying about impacts of EuroZone's sovereign crisis on global economic growth, June's forecast should be indicative of the crisis' potential impacts on Crude Oil demand. The Overall Technical Analysis Nymex Crude Oil (CL) Crude Oil's break of 71.23 minor support last week suggests that recovery from 64.24 has completed at 75.72. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for a test on 64.24 low first. A break there will confirm that whole decline for 87.15 has resumed and should target next Key level at 60, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18. On the Upside: a break above 75.72 will bring another rise, but such upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring another fall. The Big Picture: the prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms my view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. A further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, I still anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the Upside: break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, I will stay Bearish in here. In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 has finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. My POV is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the 3rd falling leg of the correction from 147.27 and, then I anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such a correction will be overdone as usual.
Gold and Precious Metals Gold fell in the middle of the week last week as risk appetite improved after strong economic data from the US and Europe. But, the price rebounded strongly Friday after lower-than-expected non-farm payroll data. On weekly basis, the precious Yellow metal settled higher by +0.45%. Correlation between Gold and USD index surpassed the level seen in Q-1 2009, suggesting concerns about a double-dip recession drive investors to safe-haven assets such as Gold and the USD. Silver under performed Gold and fell -6.1% on the week. Gold- to-silver ratio surged to 70, the highest level since February 2009. PGMs traded sideways most of the time last week but prices slumped Friday after disappointing US data. Selling pressure in Palladium was heavier, partly because it's less liquid than Platinum, partly because it's more widely used as auto catalytic converters in the US than Platinum. Stronger-than-expected growth in US auto sales unfortunately fell on deaf ears but both metals managed to stay above critical support levels. The Overall Technical Analysis Comex Gold (GC) In spite of dipping to 1198.1 Friday, Gold rebounded strongly to close at 1217.7 and the strength of the rebound mixed up the outlook. So for now l will say Neutral in here. On the Downside: a break of 1198.1 again will reaffirm the case that rebound from 1166 has finished at 1228.9, and will turn bias to the Southside for 100% projection of 1249.7 to 1166 from 1228.9 at 1145.2 next, but break of 1228.9 will indicate that rise from 1166 is still in progress for a retest on 1249.7 high. The Big Picture: yes the fall from 1249.7 is deep, but Gold is staying above 55 days EMA, now at 1176.8. So, there is no change in the Bullish POV in here, and the long term up-trend is still likely to continue after completing the current pull back. A break of 1249.7 will target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340 next. Note: sustained trading below 55 EMA will open up some bearish possibilities. The least Bearish case is that fall from 1249.7 is the 3rd leg of the 3 wave consolidation from 1227.5 and target a retest of 1044.5 the next Key support. The Long Term Picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1044.5 key support holds. Stay tuned....Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
FOREX Currency Trading Today's Overall Technical Analysis: EUR/USD EUR/USD 1.1918 EUR/USD Friday Open 1.1886 High 1.2210 Low 1.1878 Close 1.1968 Friday EUR/USD traded with a slight increase early, then collapsed to under 1.2 on the Hungary issue. and good US payrolls data. EUR/USD depreciated from 1.2210 to 1.1957 Friday, in line with the Interbank sentiment projection, at nearly -16%, closing the week at 1.1968. On the 3 hour chart the EUR's downward channel was renewed. A break above the nearest resistance, and Friday's level at 1.1980 may trigger a recovery on the EUR. Going bellow this morning's bottom and first support at 1.1878 confirms continuation of the Bearish trend, towards next objective downwards 1.1790. Today the focus is on Germany Manufacturing orders at 10 GMT. Quotes are moving bellow the 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating Bearish pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is Negative and rising, MACD is negative and calm, while CCI has crossed down the 100 line and is quiet on the 1 hour chart, giving overall light short signals. Technical resistance levels: 1. 1980 1.2070 1.2210 Technical support levels: 1.1878 1.1790 1.1700 Trading range: 1.1930 - 1.1865 Trend: Downward Sell at 1.1918 SL 1.1948 TP 1.1878 Disclaimer This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report.
Small Cap Stocks to Watch Volume Alert: Shares of healthcare services company Hythiam, Inc. broke North from GroundZero several sessions ago and broke out Friday, rallying 63% on 12 + times average volume, strong action. T. Shares of HYTM closed at $0.30, up 13 cents on the week. 30
Hythiam, Inc. (HYTM) This Company is doing good work and closing in on the answer to addiction of drugs and alcohol through its patented Prometa® therapy, a protocol that is designed to reset dysfunctional receptors in the brain to a pre-substance abuse state while integrating medical, behavioral, and nutritional components. Hythiam has 21 patents issued or allowed and 95 applications pending. Q-1 Y 2008 revenues grew to USUS$11.3 million, with 60% increase in contributions from anti-addiction services. Hythiam recently signed an Agreement with Ford Motor Corp. to offer its services to Ford’s employees worldwide. Hythiam provides comprehensive behavioral health management services to health plans, employers, and criminal justice and government agencies. In May 2008, Hythiam announced reimbursement agreement with CIGNA HealthCare for Prometa based treatment program. Its CATASYS™ Integrated Substance Dependence Solution is the only program of its kind dedicated exclusively to chemical dependence. The company also researches, develops, licenses and commercializes innovative and proprietary physiological, nutritional, and behavioral treatment programs. This market represents 180 million lives, and over 22 million Americans suffer from dependence on illicit drugs or alcohol, with only 18% seeking treatment. Direct medical costs in the US are over USUS$42B. Cocaine/stimulant addiction therapy is a multi-billion dollar market opportunity that was previously without effective treatment. www.hythiam.com Volume Alert: Shares of healthcare services company Hythiam, Inc. broke North from GroundZero several sessions ago and broke out Friday, rallying 63% on 12 + times average volume, strong action. T. Shares of HYTM closed at $0.30, up 13 cents on the week. Currently trading at .30/shr +.13 on the week. Support .27 Resistance .36. The 50-Day EMA is .23. There is Inverted Hammer on May 21 Technicals are overall Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is Bullish Latest News and Opinion HYTHIAM Financial Statement http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=hytm.ob
Archer Entertainment Media Corporation (AEMC) Archer Entertainment co-presented the Miss Thailand World Pageant in Bangkok, Thailand, in October, where it announced at a press conference it was outlining plans for construction of a US$250 million USD state-of-the-art film studio-theme park 30 minutes from Bangkok, with hotels, restaurants and its own airstrip. Archer is building a strong brand emanating from Asia to Worldwide. Beginning as a builder of digital cinemas converted from analog, in china, it is emerging as an internet-focused entertainmentmedia hub, with the unusual addition of its own production and distribution activities. Several Asian and European film funds are being raised, aimed at a total of USUS$500M to begin filming its slate. Archer cosponsored the 1st Worldwide Comedy Film Festival, in Phuket, Thailand, this past June. The company has 9 feature films in development, as well as a number of TV series, to be cast with American, Canadian, British, Australian and Asian stars and other support actors, international directors, and below-the-line staff. It is introducing getonline.com, a global database of actors, writers, directors, designers, and other personnel, initially from Asia, introducing thousands of new talent to the worldwide employment market. Preparations are well advanced for a large-budget motion picture, “Kings of the Seas,” a high-adventure comedy- drama about the 16th century meeting of East and West in the China Seas, to star actors like Hugh Jackman and Jet Li, The global entertainment market is set to explode with the growing wealth of countries like China and India, whose own films and television projects are becoming more international, if not westernized. The success of recent Chinese films, like “Crouching Tiger,” “Hero,” and others, and the huge recent hit from Danny Boyle set in Mumbai, India, “Slum Dog Millionaire,” presage success for Archer Entertainment Worldwide.
Trading at US$0.10/shr. -.02 Support .08. Resistance .12 The 50 Day EMA is .25 Technicals are overall Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is Neutral Latest News and Opinion N/A
Neah Power Systems, Inc. (NPWZ) NEAH has developed and successfully tested a patented, siliconbased, micro fuel cell, which recently passed 2000 hours of continuous energy production. The Company claims it will eventually replace batteries. It recently successfully completed a second round of tests for U.S. Navy Office of Naval Research, which has invested US$3 million into the Company, which expects to offer its products to the entire range of the US and global military. The self-contained fuel cell also has a large market in police, and fire departments, and other first responders, including ambulance, paramedic and emergency room personnel, as well as power solutions for notebook PCs PDAs, mobile phones, camcorders, digital cameras and other portable electronic devices. NEAH’s fuel cell fits within a notebook PC’s internal battery cavity instead of outside the computer, and uses methanol, a renewable resource, which delivers continuous untethered power. NEAH recently received a cash infusion from Agile Opportunity Fund, and also acquired SolCool One, LLC, and a leader in the solar air conditioning industry. NEAH recently announced a joint venture with Hobie Cat boats to develop a fuel cell propelled craft, and also revealed another with EKO Vehicles of Bangalore, India, to develop a fuel cell charger for their line of motorcycles and scooters sold around the world. http//www.neahpower.com The iHubbers are also talking about Neah. Currently trading at .09 -.03 Support NIL. Resistance .15 The 50 Day EMA is .21. Technicals overall are Bearish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bearish Latest News and Opinion: Form 8-K for NEAH POWER SYSTEMS, INC. http//biz.yahoo.com/e/100409/npwz.ob8-k.html Zacks Investment Research Rates Neah Power Systems as Outperform, Sees $1.75 Price Target Over Next 12 Months http//finance.yahoo.com/news/Zacks-Investment-Research-pz-2998727857.html?x=0
TOMI Environmental Solutions, Inc. (TOMZ). “TOMI” is an infectious disease control company, which uses one of the most powerful disinfectants known to man ozone. The Ministry of Health, in Thailand, has invited TOMI to demonstrate its prowess in eliminating pathogens in a military hospital, similar to its success in September, in a Baltimore hospital operating room, in which it killed 99.999% of all viruses, bacteria, mold spores, and pathogens. TOMI’s technology can be used against all forms of pathogens, including Swine Flu. Hospitals can be a significant hazard to sick people, and TOMI may come to be the only answer to a real problem in healthcare. TOMI remediated a high school in Brooklyn, NY after a flu outbreak, and outperformed any other known treatment method, killing 99.999 percent of all bacteria, viruses, and mold spores, using TOMI’s Ultraviolet Ozone Generators. The EPA reports that indoor air pollution is in the top five risks to public health. The American Medical Association (AMA) says that indoor levels of pollutants are between 25 and 200 times higher than outdoors. TOMI-ES has an exclusive distribution agreement with Advanced Disinfection Technologies, LLC to market their MRA Technology to over 300 Hospitals with its alliance partners. Magnetic Resolution Activation (MRA™) is a revolutionary breakthrough disinfection process that effectively kill microorganisms, is not harmful to people or animals, is non-allergic, inexpensive and convenient to use. 2.4 million people each year require additional hospital care. Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) account for more than 120,000 deaths annually in the US. ADTec's research and development company and TOMI’s complete air remediation for all forms of 32
disinfection for many industries, solves this problem with the ability to kill 99.99% of harmful bacteria, viruses and spores in a hospital room in 15 minutes at a very economic price. Unlike harmful chemicals, the Reactive Oxygen Species fog (ROS) does no damage to any known material. www.tomiesinc.com Currently trading at .39 + .05 Support NIL Resistance .39. The 50-Day EMA is .54. There is a Bullish Engulfing Candle on May 28. The overall technical indicators are Bearish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bullish Latest News and Opinion: N/A
Form 10-K/A for TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC. http://biz.yahoo.com/e/100528/tomz.ob10-k_a.html
Form 10-Q for TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC. http://biz.yahoo.com/e/100517/tomz.ob10-q.html TOMI Environmental Solutions Demonstrates New Technology to Industry Experts http//finance.yahoo.com/news/TOMI-Environmental-Solutions-pz-2952286412.html?x=0&.v=1 TOMI Environmental Solutions Offers 100% Financing to Its Customers http//finance.yahoo.com/news/TOMI-Environmental-Solutions-pz-1216684858.html?x=0&.v=1 TOMI Environmental Solutions Helps Reduce a 32 Billion Dollar Healthcare Issue http//finance.yahoo.com/news/TOMI-Environmental-Solutions-pz-1955419846.html?x=0&.v=1
â€œOn the Watch Listâ€? contains potential investment opportunities suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios.
On The Watch List Pulmo BioTech Inc. (OTCBB: PLMO) (FRANKFURT: PBO) Pulmo BioTech Inc. (www.pulmobiotech.com) is a venture capital company focused solely in medical research, development and marketing. We have acquired, and shall continue to seek investment in and acquisition of new technologies. We shall further develop effective methodologies for the prevention and detection of cardiovascular related disease. The experience and reputation of our principals and staff, particularly for their innovation and entrepreneurial drive, is the key force behind Pulmo BioTech, where ideas become reality. Combining business experience and the highest academic and medical credentials, our staff are proven performers in small and large firms and have worked with a broad range of investment institutions. 33
Our latest investment has been made through a recently formed Canadian Company, PulmoScience. PulmoScience is developing a range of new diagnostic procedures for the imaging of the circulatory system of the lungs. These products have the brand name PulmoBind. PulmoBind will almost totally eliminate any physical damage to patients during a lung scan (current scans involving nuclear medicine based diagnosis of Pulmonary Embolism are known to cause tissue damage), while at the same time giving the medical community sharper images and enhanced information, ultimately enabling better diagnostic judgments. PulmoScience is partly owned by the prestigious Montreal Heart Institute ( www.icm-mhi.org) which funded the early stage work for this exciting new diagnostic technique. Dr Jocelyn Dupuis, the originator of this new technology, also has a stake in the Company. By bringing together the experience, imagination and drive of the inventor, the experience and facilities of the Montreal Heart Institute, and the managerial and financial capabilities of Pulmo BioTech, a product has been created to capture a dominant position within its’ marketplace. Pulmo BioTech Inc is a venture capital company focused solely in medical research, development and marketing. We have acquired, and shall continue to seek investment in and acquisition of new technologies. We shall further develop effective methodologies for the prevention and detection of cardiovascular related disease. Read the whole Story at: http://www.livetradingnews.com/pulmo-biotech-inc-on-the-hot-list-otcbb-plmofrankfurt-pbo-13552.htm
Ronn Motor Company (RNNM.PK) Ronn Motor Company (PINKSHEETS: RNNM) (www.ronnmotors.com) announced that the renovation on their new Green manufacturing facility and corporate headquarters is nearing completion. In keeping with their “green” theme, Ronn Motors was able to locate, hire and utilize independent, green, certified, local contractors that have made extensive use of green materials in the construction process wherever possible. It is expected that the manufacturing facility will be available for limited access within the next couple of weeks. This will provide the company an opportunity to move in and start setting up production in the mid May time frame. Full access to the facility is projected for the end of May. Ronn Maxwell, CEO of Ronn Motors, commented, “We’re thrilled. After a few construction delays, we can finally see the end, or should I say the beginning of a new phase. Our planning is completed. We are geared up and ready to quickly move towards full production of the Scorpion HX and H2GO real-time hydrogen injection system and, more importantly, start delivering on our commitments in the 3rd Quarter of this year.” While waiting for the completion of the renovation of the new Marble Falls manufacturing facility, Ronn Motors has been working on the initial plans and design of a new midrange sports hybrid sedan, based on electric/diesel hybrid technologies. The board has now given the go-ahead to move forward and put those plans on the drawing board. During the last two years Ronn Motors has met with many electric, diesel and hybrid drive-train manufacturers, as well as other automotive designers. The new Marble Falls facility will provide adequate additional space to develop this car in the future.
Ronn Maxwell, CEO of Ronn Motor Company, stated that, “Consolidating our manpower and leveraging the skills and lessons learned from the creation of Scorpion HX should help to provide us a competitive edge in this new developing market. We are genuinely excited about the future new addition to our fine family of eco-friendly products.” It is interesting to note that the Japanese automaker and Tesla Motors will be teaming up to develop electric motor vehicles in California. Toyota will not only be investing US$50M of capital into Tesla but will also provide engineering and production systems for the development of electric vehicles. Production of Tesla model S sedan According to the deal, both the automakers will be working together to manufacture Tesla model S sedan, which is a high performance electric sedan, competing with cars like the BMW 5-series. The cars will be manufactured in a plant in California in 2012. Initially, the automakers are expected to produce 20,000 vehicles. The unit will employ 1,000 workers, which are expected to grow to 10,000 over the years. Read the whole Story at: http://www.livetradingnews.com/electric-car-news-tesla-toyota-and-ronnmotors-13805.htm
HEALTHY COFFEE INTERNATIONAL, INC. (HCEI.PK) HEALTHY COFFEE USA (www.hcei.biz) is focused on bringing health to the world’s most popular and widely distributed drink, coffee. The company’s proprietary formulas combine the health benefits of Ginseng, Reishi Mushroom, and other top quality ingredients with the world’s finest coffee beans to create a line of deliciously healthy instant gourmet coffee drinks. Healthy Coffee’s products are sold exclusively through its subsidiary, Healthy Coffee USA, Inc., which uses a simple and unique Internet-driven international business model that allows the average person to own and operate a local, national, or international coffee distribution or coffee house business with very little capital investment or overhead. Healthy Coffee is well positioned in the market place at the intersection of three mega-billion dollar industries: coffee, wellness and energy drinks, and has quickly moved into international markets by establishing preliminary marketing offices in more than a dozen countries. Network marketing is the fastest distribution model to bring a product to market, and Healthy Coffee USA’s initial goal is to open 20 countries with a minimum of 50,000 independent distributors in each country within five years, for a total of one million independent distributors. The company’s vision is to bring health to the world’s largest and most popular drink, coffee and to be recognized globally as The World’s Healthy Coffee Company®!. In pursuit of our vision, we will: Provide the highest quality Healthy Coffee drinks and wellness products. Provide an opportunity for the average person to own a coffee distribution or coffee house business without the big capital and overhead, and market globally via the internet.
Provide our independent distributors with a sense of “belonging” by being able to own stock in our public company and know they will be part of the company’s projected growth. Build a legacy company that holds integrity as its foundation, because we believe that “integrity is honoring your word”, and make a difference in the industry by offering a real home to its distributors. Build our shareholders’ value in the company by maintaining stability and improving financial performance. Give back to the community by helping the orphans and poor children of the world. Read the whole Story at: http://www.livetradingnews.com/healthy-coffee-hcei-on-global-mlmexpansion-13716.htm
“On the Watch List” contains potential investment opportunities for suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios.
___________________________________________________________ Red’s Rules to Always Play by… Do what they do on Wall St. and not what they say; that means tune out the “Noise”. Some folks like to buy stocks because they are upgraded, or sell stocks because they are downgraded; that’s the wrong approach. Learn how to evaluate stocks for yourself. It is not a difficult process; the steps are 1) check the volume for a buying or selling patterns, 2) recognize support and resistance levels and utilizing key charting patterns. I use www.stockta.com for my data. Knowledge is Power (and Money) Over my 30+ yrs playing the stock market in earnest, I have learned that there are winning stocks that most traders and investors completely ignore and abhor. And when played right, these overly unappreciated issues often lead to huge gains, but it is all about timing. There is no mystery here; you all know and/or have heard about “penny stocks” i.e. those that trade under USUS$5.00/shr on US markets (10’s of thousands of stocks trade on other world markets under USUS$5.00/shr and are not referred to in the same pejorative manner). This is just a label (designed to diminish their value and keep you away, IMO). The fact is that there are many, many studies made over the years that prove that these stocks outperform the overall market, and when there is a steady new Bull Market, the little stocks (small caps, micro and mini caps) lead the Charge. As a class, they are the most undiscovered and underappreciated sector of stocks and the sector where the biggest chance ends up big winners on a consistent basis. I call them Little Gems; they are indeed Wall Street's buried treasure for those who wish to go treasure hunting. Here, in the RedRoadmaster, I work to uncover solid, moneymaking companies whose shares are grossly undervalued and virtually undiscovered, and they sell for USUS$5 or less a share. And do not forget to always include some small, mini and micro cap (pennies and juniors) sues in your sights; they can give you explosive percentage returns like no others.
Savvy traders do not wait for the stock market to hit bottom, recover or get toppy; they do not double down or resort to tricky, desperation moves. They make simple moves on good data and bank some gains. Do not think get rich - think get rich slowly; it works. Even if you know absolutely nothing about how to start making a living in the stock market, and want to learn how to do it, the first step is to learn from someone who knows how to do it successfully. The stock market is about success, and the lifestyle that comes with it, but it must be done carefully, both by picking the issues and in the trading of them, because one wants to make money doing it independently and without stress. You can’t reverse your “bad plays”. Breathe through your nose, count to 10 and move ahead. Go forward, and only focus on what the opportunities are in front of you to win in the stock market game. You do not live in the scrapbook, and always take what the market gives. A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step (Confucius); Download and read and study “Knowledge is Power,” my e-Book, its Free. Always remember that we look at the risk first and decide how to manage it before ever entering a position. Yes, losses will be incurred; it is part of this and any business, and not a bad thing if they are controlled. Again, think “get rich steady" and not "get rich quick" and think Education! The Bull is charging, and this perhaps this the best investing scenario since the early 80's. It is happening now and savvy traders and investors are positioned and in the action. Remember to always be nimble and take what the market gives. Have a great week, and stay tuned. All the best as the leaves turn…
Red PS Some of you know that I am the founder and non-Executive Chairman of Archer Entertainment Media Communications, Inc., www.archeremc.com, also that I am the Co-Founder of www.livetradingnews.com also check out www.paulebeling.com and follow me on Google News Paul Ebeling. Check it out please, let me know your thoughts. Please reply to Redroadmaster@aol.com Disclaimer The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. It is designed to help the reader learn the fine art of technical analysis. Links are provided to articles and stories referenced in this Report. Some statements and expressions are the points of view and/or opinions of Red Roadmaster™, aka Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. and the contributors. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. I am not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein has been obtained from readily available sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. I do not receive compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this Report. Please feel free to print and/or send The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices ™ to your friends and associates, no permission is necessary. ©2002/2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE OR IN OUR NEWSLETTERS. Red Roadmaster is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment advisor either within the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The information contained on our website or in any of our newsletters should be viewed as commercial advertisement and is not intended to be investment advice. Any information found on our website, or in any of our
newsletters is not provided to any particular individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. The information contained on our website, and in any newsletter we distribute, is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments, and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them. Our newsletter and website have been prepared for informational purposes only and are not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. An individual should never invest in the securities of any of the companies’ profiled based solely on information contained in our report. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website or in one of our newsletters about profiled companies is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Any individual who chooses to invest in any securities should do so with caution. Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk; you may lose some or all of the money that is invested. Always research your own investments and consult with a registered investment adviser or licensed stockbroker before investing. Information contained in the Red Roadmaster Market Report will contain “forward looking statements” as defined under section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Subscribers are cautioned not to place undue reliance upon these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties outside of our control that could cause actual operations or results to differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could affect performance include, but are not limited to, those factors that are discussed in each profiled company’s most recent reports or registration statements filed with the SEC. You should consider these factors in evaluating the forward looking statements included in the report and not place undue reliance upon such statements. Red Roadmaster is committed to providing factual information on the companies that are profiled. However, we do not provide any assurance as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, including information regarding a profiled company’s plans or ability to effect any planned or proposed actions. We have no first-hand knowledge of any profiled company’s operations and therefore cannot comment on their capabilities, intent, resources, nor experience and we make no attempt to do so. Statistical information, dollar amounts, and market size data was provided by the subject company and related sources which we believe to be reliable. To the fullest extent of the applicable law, we will not be liable to any person or entity for the quality, accuracy, completeness, reliability, or timeliness of the information provided in this report, or for any direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, special or punitive damages that may arise out of the use of information we provide to any person or entity (including, but not limited to, lost profits, loss opportunities, trading losses, and damages that may result from any inaccuracy or incompleteness of this information). We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http//www.sec.gov and FINRA at http//www.finra.org