The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Monthly Re-cap + Stock Talk ™
15 April 2010
Date Line: Hong Kong (SAR) China
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Red’s Bull Alert : More stocks hit 52 week highs on the NYSE than on any day since December 2003. The NAS recorded its greatest number of 52 week highs since January 2004. Financial and technology sectors led the charge.
Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the session ending 14 April 201 US stocks clocked a 5th straight day of gains Wednesday and the S&P 500 pushed past 1,200 for the 1st time in 18 months. JPMorgan was the top percentage gainer on the Dow, up 4% to US$47.73, followed by Bank of America Corp, which will report on Friday, and rose 3.9% to US$19.40, and Intel rose 3.3% to US$23.52. The DJIA closed + 103.69 pts, or 0.94%, at 11,123.11, the S&P 500 closed up 13.35 pts, or 1.12%, at 1,210.65, and the leading NAS tallied up + 38.87 pts, or 1.58%, to end the session at 2,504.86. The large number of 52-week highs suggest broad-based buying, momentum indicators also are flashing that the markets are overbought in here. Also boosting sentiment were March retail sales, which rose 1.6%, the Commerce Department reported, beating expectations for a 1.2% increase. The S&P retail index rose 1.2%. The KBW Banks index rose 3.4%, and Citigroup Inc gained 6.7% to US$4.93/shr and was the most actively traded stock on the NYSE Wednesday. After the market's close, Yum Brands Inc. operator of Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and other restaurant chains, reported adjusted Q-1 earnings that beat expectations, sending the stock up 2.9% to US$42.89 afterhours. General Electric reports this week too, it is up more than 4% on the week so far. US economic activity strengthened in most regions in March, and early April, except for St. Louis where plans to close several plants were announced, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book.
Energy stocks advanced after a surprise fall in U.S. crude inventories, a positive sign for demand that sent May crude futures up 2.3% to US$85.99 bbl, ConocoPhillips gained 2.2% to US$56.89. Are you watching the VIX: The Volatility Index, aka VIX, is down 2.8%, is at its lowest since Y 2007. Advancing Sectors: Financials (+2.6%), Tech (+1.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.5%), Industrials (+1.3%), Energy (+0.9%), Materials (+0.9%) Declining Sectors: Health Care (-0.4%), Telecom (-0.1%) Unchanged: Utilities, Consumer Staples Volume and Breadth: About 10.24B/shrs traded on the NYSE, the AMEX and NAS, above last year's estimated daily average of 9.65b/shrs. About 3 stocks rose for each 1 that fell on the NYSE, and on the NAS, 3 stocks rose for each 1 that fell.
Market Indexes Technical Analysis Date
Major World Markets Shanghai
Updated 0700 BJT (April 15)
Gold Focus Report Gold rallies on weak "Greenback" Gold futures on the COMEX Division: New York Merc closed higher Wednesday, as the USD lost against other major currencies, Sliver and Platinum surged. The most active Gold contract for June delivery rose US$6.2, or 0.5%, to finish at US$1,159.6 oz. The US labor department said on Wednesday that US consumer prices index increased 0.1% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, matching forecasts. The government's core consumer price index remained unchanged, while economist had estimated a 0.1% increase, thus auguring for low inflation expectations. The CPI figures have proved Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's point of view that inflation is not an immediate concern for U.S economy, and Federal Reserve will maintain its highly simulative policies of low interest rate for an extended period. Since low interest rates reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing Gold, investors have been shifting to Gold as a safe-haven. The US Dollar extended losses after report released on Wednesday showed sales at US retailers rose more vigorously than expected in March, suggesting a broadening of the manufacturing-led economic recovery. Upbeat corporate earnings reports increased investor appetite for riskier assets, and tarnished the Greenback's appeal as safe-haven. The decline of the USD boosted investors' interest in Gold as an alternative asset, and made it cheaper for other currency holders. Also, May Silver was up 16.6c to US$18.415 oz, and July Platinum surged US$16.9 to US$1,734.2 oz Overall Technical Outlook Gold's consolidation from 1170.7 is still in progress, and intra-day bias is Neutral for now. Another decline cannot be ruled out but Southside will likely be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1084.8 to 1170.7 at 1137.9 and bring rally resumption. However, a break of 1170.7 will target 100% projection of 1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 level next. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only. The lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5 augurs that it is possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the long term up-trend. So the upside will likely be limited by the 1227.5 high ,and bring at least one more decline before the consolidation concludes. On the Downside, a move below the 1084.8 support will indicate that the 3rd leg of consolidations has started and should then target 1044.5 again. Stay tuned....
Crude Oil Focus Report Crude Oil prices ended a 5 day losing streak, and rebounded to above US$85 bbl Wednesday as US Crude Oil inventory caught everyone by surprise and fell last week. Light, Sweet Crude for May delivery gained US$1.79 to settle at US$85.84 bbl on the New York Merc. Crude Oil futures rose to as high as US$86.39 bbl during the trading session. The US Energy Department Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that Crude Oil stockpiles fell by 2.2M bbls, as analysts had forecasted a gain of 1.6M bbls. The report also showed that gasoline inventories declined by 1.1M bbls more than average forecast for a decrease of 600,000 bbls. Crude Oil prices began to move North before the inventory report as strong earnings results and retail sale data reassured investors' confidence in a slow yet steady economic recovery. In London, Brent Crude for May delivery rose US$1.44 to US$86 bbls on the ICE Futures Exchange. The Overall Technical Outlook With the 4 hours MACD crossed above the Signal Line, the choppy pull back from 87.09 might have completed at 82.51 already. Intra-day bias is cautiously on the Northside for now and Crude Oil will target a retest of 87.09 1st. A break above that level will confirm a rally resumption for 90, a Key level next. On the Downside: knowing that another fall cannot be ruled out, I will continue to expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 78.56 to 87.09 at 81.82 to conclude the correction and bring on a rally resumption. The Big Picture: the medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress, and could extend further North in here, and there is no change in the POV that it's the 2nd wave of the whole correction that started in Y 2008 at 147.27. Therefore, I continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring a reversal. On the Downside: a move below the 78.56 support level will be the 1st signal of topping, and will turn the focus back to 69.50, the Key support for confirmation. Stay tuned... ---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com Stocks to Watch Today
Apple, Inc (APPL), Citigroup, Inc.(C), McDonaldâ€™s Corporation (MCD), and Visa, Inc. (V)
Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Up-date 46
Last Look: March 10, 2010
April 15, 2010 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst Today let’s look at Apple, Inc (APPL), the creator of the iPhone and other wonderful stuff, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Wednesday’s (April 14) market action is Very Bullish; in the near term Very Bullish, mid-term Very Bullish, and long term Very Bullish. Recent Candlestick analysis: Bearish
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News and Opinion: Apple Says Its Sold So Many iPads in US That It Can't Start Selling Them Abroad Yet http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/466388/Apple-Says-Its-Sold-So-Many-iPads-in-U.S.-That-ItCant-Start-Selling-Them-Abroad-Yet
Wednesday’s Market Action Close
There is a DOJI on April 12, and is three Gaps open up between on March 1 and April 14, 2010 at 205.17/244.07, the near term resistance is at NIL, support at 243.00, and the 50 day exponential moving average is 223.18. This is Apple, Inc. (AAPL): Apple, the world’s computer/gadget innovator has caused a revolution in personal computing and digital media distribution. The company's desktop and laptop computers feature its OS X operating system, they include its Mac mini, iMac, and MacBook for the consumer and education markets, and powerful Mac Pro and MacBook Pro for high end consumers and professionals involved in design and publishing. Apple posted a huge success with its iPod digital music players, and iTunes, its online music store. Other Apple products: iPhone mobile phones, Xserve, servers, Airport, wireless networking equipment, plus publishing and multimedia software. Apple’s FileMaker sub provides database software. Apple, Inc. ranks #103 in the Fortune 500 Companies List.
The Competitive Landscape Computer product demand is directly tied to consumer and business income. The profitability of individual computer companies depends on purchasing and production efficiencies, and on technological expertise. Large companies have economies of scale in purchasing and production. Small companies can compete successfully by specializing in certain products or by developing superior technology. The industry is capital-intensive and highly automated: annual revenue per employee is about US$500,000. The output of US computer manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4.7 % between 2008 and 2013.
Apple, Inc. (HQ) Steven P. (Steve) Jobs, CEO and Director 1 Infinite Loop Cupertino, CA 95014 United States http://www.apple.com
Apple Subsidiaries Apple Computer (UK) Limited FileMaker, In
Citigroup, Inc. (C) Up-date 52
Last Look: March 10, 2010
April 15, 2010
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst Today letâ€™s look at Citigroup, Inc.(C), perhaps the largest financial services company in the world (now dismantling), from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Wednesdayâ€™s (April 14) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Very Bullish, and long term Bullish. The Recent Candle Stick Analysis is: Very Bearish.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News and Opinion: New Citi Survey Finds Majority of Individual Investors Are Bullish on the Next Six Months Yet Still Playing It Safe
Wednesdayâ€™s Market Action Close 4.93 +.31
There is a Bearish Harami on April 13, there are six Gaps open up between February 17, and April 14, 2010 at 3.33/4.70 the near term resistance is NIL, support 4.68, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 3.99. This is Citigroup, Inc. (C): Citi is perhaps the largest financial services firms on the planet, Citigroup, AKA Citi, has about 3,000 bank branches and consumer finance offices in the US and Canada, + more than 2,000 additional locations in a 100 other countries. Citi is the first US bank to come with more than US$1T in assets, Citi offers deposits and loans, mainly through Citibank, investment banking, brokerage, wealth management, alternative investments, and other financial services. Former CEO Chuck Prince resigned in 2007 as Citi deals with some $60 billion in write downs and losses on mortgagerelated securities and other investments. Robert Rubin, Key Advisor/Director recently announced his resignation. The Competitive Landscape Demand for banking services is tied to economic activity and interest rates levels. The profitability of individual banks depends on marketing, efficient operations, and competent risk management. Large economies of scale exist in some segments of the industry, which has experienced consolidation. Smaller banks can compete successfully in segments where customer service or knowledge of the local market is more important. The industry is capital-intensive and highly automated: annual revenue per employee is about US$300,000. Banks and Credit Unions Industry Forecast
The output of US banks and credit unions growth forecast remains a question Industries Where Citigroup Competes Banking Money Center Banks (primary) Financial Services Asset Management Investment Banking Lending Citigroup, Inc. (HQ) Chief Exec. Officer, Director Vikram S. Pandit 399 Park Ave. New York, NY 10043 United States Phone: 212-559-1000 Toll Free: 800-285-3000 http://www.citigroup.com
Citigroup Subsidiaries Grupo Financiero Banamex, S.A. de C.V. Bank Handlowy w Warszawie S.A. Citi Commerce Solutions
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Up-date 15
Last Look: March 9 2010
April 15, 2010 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst Today let’s look at McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), the world's #1 fast-food company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Wednesday’s (April 14) market action, Bullish: in the near term Very Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Very Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bearish
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News and Opinion: Calls Of The Day: McDonald’s, Red Hat … http://www.cnbc.com/id/36518550?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo
Wednesday’s Market Action Close 69.42
There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on April 12, and two Gaps open up on March 8 and 12 at 63.76/65.36, the near term resistance is 69.50, support at 67.72, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 66.02. This is McDonald’s Corporation (MCD): "McDonald's is the world's #1 fast-food company by sales, with more than 31,000 restaurants serving burgers and fries in 120 countries, with about 14,000 Golden Arches locations are in the USA. The popular chain is well-known for its Big Macs, Quarter Pounders, and Chicken McNuggets. Most of its outlets are free-standing units, but McDonald's also has many quickservice kiosk units located in airports and retail areas. Each unit gets its food and packaging from approved suppliers and uses standardized procedures to ensure that a Big Mac purchased in Pittsburgh tastes the same as one bought in Beijing, I lived in Beijing for 4 years and it’s true. More than 75% of its restaurants are run by franchisees or affiliates.
The Competitive Landscape Demographics and personal income drive demand. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations, effective marketing, and the ability to provide fast service. Large companies have advantages in purchasing, financing, and marketing. Small companies can compete by offering unique products or serving a local market. The industry is highly labor-intensive: average annual revenue per worker is just under US$40,000. McDonald's Corporation (HQ) Chairman; Andrew J. (Andy) McKenna Sr.
2111 McDonalds Dr. Oak Brook, IL 60523 United States Phone: 630-623-3000 Fax: 630-623-5004 Toll Free: 800-244-6227 http://www.mcdonalds.com
McDonald's Subsidiaries McDonald's Restaurants Limited Ronald McDonald House Charities, Inc.
Visa, Inc. (V) Up-date 4
Last Look: March 11, 2010
April 15, 2010 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst Today letâ€™s look at Visa, Inc. (V), the operator of the World's largest consumer payment system, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Wednesdayâ€™s (April 14) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Very Bullish, and long term Very Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is Very Bearish
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News and Opinion: 20% - 25% Bottom Line Growth Predicted For VISA (V), Industry Expert Gives It Buy Rating
Wednesday’s Market Action
+ 1.47 Volume 4,332,400/shrs
There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on April 13, and 2 Gaps open up between October 28, and November 4, 2009 at 74.45/78.12, the near term resistance is NIL, support at 93.19, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 89.27. This is Visa, Inc. (V): Visa operates the world's largest consumer payment system (ahead of MasterCard and American Express) with some 1.6 billion credit and other payment cards in circulation. It licenses the Visa name to member institutions, which issue and market their own Visa products and participate in the VisaNet payment system (authorization, transaction processing, and settlement services). Visa also provides its customers with debit cards, Internet payment systems, value-storing smart cards, and traveler's checks. Visa Inc., which was created by a restructuring of several Visa organizations, went public in 2008 and raised about US$17B. Industries Where Visa Inc Competes Financial Services Transaction, Credit & Collections Electronic Payment Systems (primary) Lending Credit Cards
Visa, Inc. (HQ) Joseph W. Saunders, Exec. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer P.O. Box 8999 San Francisco, CA 94128-8999 United States Phone: 415-932-2100
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