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The Value of a Draft Pick April, 2012


What is analytics? Using data, math, and reasoning to gain a competitive edge. Bill James: “The search for objective knowledge about [hockey]�


What are advanced stats? 1. Corsi – Shots directed on goal minus shots directed on your own goal (proxy for possession) 2. Qualcomp – how good is the opposition that a player typically lines up against (how a coach is using a player) 3. Qualteam – how good are the teamates a player typically lines up with


What are advanced stats? 4. PDO – a combination of team shooting percentage and save percentage when a player is on the ice (proxy for luck) 5. Zone Start – percentage of offensive zone faceoffs when a player is on the ice 6. Predicted Goals Scored – how many goals a player or team should have scored given shot location and an average goalie (attempts to remove luck from player performance)


Pavel Datsyuk vs Henrik Sedin League Statistic Pavel Datsyuk Henrik Sedin Rank Corsi

13.5

12.4

(27 v 33)

QaulComp

0.076

0.055

(22 v 50)

QualTeam

-0.085

0.469

(425 v 8)

ZoneStart

48%

71%

(430 v 3)

PDO

101.3

102.5


What are the options? Advanced stats services: Coleman Analytics (Mike Smith) – player performance by game situation Sports Analytics Institute – full service based on scoring chances, game situation, cost/win, etc. Blueline Analytics – player contract and value analysis


What are the options? Advanced stats services: PUCKS – ranks players by different skillsets (skating, shooting, etc.) Decision Lens – Advanced game stats (where goals are scored from, etc.) tied to game video Puck Prospectus – Player and team projections aimed at bettors


What are the options? Consultants/Freelancers: Gabe Desjardins, Vic Ferrari, etc. – advanced stats experts who evaluate trades, players, etc. on a fee for service basis In-house stats experts: Several teams employ analytics experts full-time to evaluate different aspects of their business


Who’s using it? San Jose – have been using advanced analytics since the lockout. Dean Lombardi bragged that they built San Jose on Analytics and he would do the same in LA Calgary – hired a Director of Video and Statistical Analysis from Minnesota, and the Bruins stats guru John Weisbrod this year Montreal – have use advanced statisticians to evaluate contracts since 2007


Who’s using it? Pittsburg – subscribe to SAI Buffalo – Have analytics professionals on their payroll Montreal – have use advanced statisticians to evaluate contracts since 2007 Vancouver –began using analytics soon after Mike Gillis took over Boston – rumored to have a very active analytics group Tampa – starting to invest in analytics Atlanta/Winnipeg –using analytics


What can it be used for Player evaluation – offensive and defensive value, playing context Team evaluation – tactics, tendencies, cap efficiency Player negotiation Training and preparation Procurement and projection Tactics


Traditional stats‌ 120 100 80 60

Points/yr plus minus

40

20 0 Alex Ovechkin

Henrik Sedin

Sidney Crosby

Joe Pavel Eric Staal Brad Thornton Datsyuk Richards


‌versus Advanced Stats


Defence-Independent Save Percentage Slap shots on Brodeur Wrist shots on Thomas during power plays at even strength

*Taken from “DIGR: A Defense Independent Rating of NHL Goaltenders using Spatially Smoothed Save Percentage� by Michael Schuckers


Goalie Rankings 2011 Rank Name

DIGR RawSV%

1

Tim Thomas

0.9312

0.9386

2

Cory Schneider

0.9285

0.9253

3

Roberto Luongo

0.9269

0.9275

4

Jonas Hiller

0.9269

0.9249

5

Ilya Bryzgalov

0.9234

0.9211

6

Cam Ward

0.9232

0.9221

7

Marc-Andre Fleury

0.9227

0.9189

8

Devan Dubnyk

0.9224

0.9164

9

Corey Crawford

0.9219

0.9200

0.9218

0.9220

10 Carey Price

*Taken from “DIGR: A Defense Independent Rating of NHL Goaltenders using Spatially Smoothed Save Percentage” by Michael Schuckers


Player Value Metrics Rank

Name

PTS

Name

+/-

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Daniel Sedin Martin St. Louis Corey Perry Steven Stamkos Jarome Iginla Alex Ovechkin Teemu Selanne H Zetterberg Brad Richards Eric Staal Claude Giroux Jonathan Toews Thomas Vanek Ryan Kesler Patrick Marleau Patrick Kane Anze Kopitar Loui Eriksson Bobby Ryan Patrick Sharp

104 99 98 91 86 85 80 80 77 76 76 76 73 73 73 73 73 73 71 71

Zdeno Chara David Backes Kevin Bieksa Toni Lydman Matt Carle Adam McQuaid Andrej Meszaros Daniel Sedin Dan Hamhuis Nathan Horton Brian Campbell Milan Lucic Jeff Carter A. Burrows Henrik Sedin Anze Kopitar Brad Marchand Jonathan Toews Nicklas Backstrom Ryan Kesler

33 32 32 32 30 30 30 30 29 29 28 28 27 26 26 25 25 25 24 24

Name Daniel Sedin Corey Perry Lubomir Visnovsky Steven Stamkos Martin St. Louis Alex Ovechkin Jarome Iginla Henrik Sedin Christian Ehrhoff Ryan Kesler Alex Goligoski Sidney Crosby Shea Weber Zdeno Chara Teemu Selanne Keith Yandle Kris Letang Jonathan Toews Dustin Byfuglien Drew Doughty

Point Share

Name

14.3 Daniel Sedin 13.3 Corey Perry 12.8 Jonathan Toews 12.2 Martin St. Louis 11.3 Alex Ovechkin 11.2 Jarome Iginla 11 Ryan Kesler 10.6 Lubomir Visnovsky 10.4 Anze Kopitar 10.4 Steven Stamkos 10.2 Henrik Sedin 10.1 Alex Tanguay 10.1 Teemu Selanne 10 Brad Richards 10 Sidney Crosby 9.9 Claude Giroux 9.8 David Backes 9.8 Thomas Vanek 9.6 Michael Grabner 9.6 Jeff Carter

GVT 26.2 23.3 20.8 20.4 20.1 19.8 19.3 19.2 18.9 18.8 18 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.8 16.6


Player Value Metrics Rank

Name

PTS

Name

+/-

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Daniel Sedin Martin St. Louis Corey Perry Steven Stamkos Jarome Iginla Alex Ovechkin Teemu Selanne H Zetterberg Brad Richards Eric Staal Claude Giroux Jonathan Toews Thomas Vanek Ryan Kesler Patrick Marleau Patrick Kane Anze Kopitar Loui Eriksson Bobby Ryan Patrick Sharp

104 99 98 91 86 85 80 80 77 76 76 76 73 73 73 73 73 73 71 71

Zdeno Chara David Backes Kevin Bieksa Toni Lydman Matt Carle Adam McQuaid Andrej Meszaros Daniel Sedin Dan Hamhuis Nathan Horton Brian Campbell Milan Lucic Jeff Carter A. Burrows Henrik Sedin Anze Kopitar Brad Marchand Jonathan Toews Nicklas Backstrom Ryan Kesler

33 32 32 32 30 30 30 30 29 29 28 28 27 26 26 25 25 25 24 24

Name Daniel Sedin Corey Perry Lubomir Visnovsky Steven Stamkos Martin St. Louis Alex Ovechkin Jarome Iginla Henrik Sedin Christian Ehrhoff Ryan Kesler Alex Goligoski Sidney Crosby Shea Weber Zdeno Chara Teemu Selanne Keith Yandle Kris Letang Jonathan Toews Dustin Byfuglien Drew Doughty

Point Share

Name

14.3 Daniel Sedin 13.3 Corey Perry 12.8 Jonathan Toews 12.2 Martin St. Louis 11.3 Alex Ovechkin 11.2 Jarome Iginla 11 Ryan Kesler 10.6 Lubomir Visnovsky 10.4 Anze Kopitar 10.4 Steven Stamkos 10.2 Henrik Sedin 10.1 Alex Tanguay 10.1 Teemu Selanne 10 Brad Richards 10 Sidney Crosby 9.9 Claude Giroux 9.8 David Backes 9.8 Thomas Vanek 9.6 Michael Grabner 9.6 Jeff Carter

GVT 26.2 23.3 20.8 20.4 20.1 19.8 19.3 19.2 18.9 18.8 18 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.8 16.6


Player Value Metrics Rank

Name

PTS

Name

+/-

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Daniel Sedin Martin St. Louis Corey Perry Steven Stamkos Jarome Iginla Alex Ovechkin Teemu Selanne H Zetterberg Brad Richards Eric Staal Claude Giroux Jonathan Toews Thomas Vanek Ryan Kesler Patrick Marleau Patrick Kane Anze Kopitar Loui Eriksson Bobby Ryan Patrick Sharp

104 99 98 91 86 85 80 80 77 76 76 76 73 73 73 73 73 73 71 71

Zdeno Chara David Backes Kevin Bieksa Toni Lydman Matt Carle Adam McQuaid Andrej Meszaros Daniel Sedin Dan Hamhuis Nathan Horton Brian Campbell Milan Lucic Jeff Carter A. Burrows Henrik Sedin Anze Kopitar Brad Marchand Jonathan Toews Nicklas Backstrom Ryan Kesler

33 32 32 32 30 30 30 30 29 29 28 28 27 26 26 25 25 25 24 24

Name Daniel Sedin Corey Perry Lubomir Visnovsky Steven Stamkos Martin St. Louis Alex Ovechkin Jarome Iginla Henrik Sedin Christian Ehrhoff Ryan Kesler Alex Goligoski Sidney Crosby Shea Weber Zdeno Chara Teemu Selanne Keith Yandle Kris Letang Jonathan Toews Dustin Byfuglien Drew Doughty

Point Share

Name

14.3 Daniel Sedin 13.3 Corey Perry 12.8 Jonathan Toews 12.2 Martin St. Louis 11.3 Alex Ovechkin 11.2 Jarome Iginla 11 Ryan Kesler 10.6 Lubomir Visnovsky 10.4 Anze Kopitar 10.4 Steven Stamkos 10.2 Henrik Sedin 10.1 Alex Tanguay 10.1 Teemu Selanne 10 Brad Richards 10 Sidney Crosby 9.9 Claude Giroux 9.8 David Backes 9.8 Thomas Vanek 9.6 Michael Grabner 9.6 Jeff Carter

GVT 26.2 23.3 20.8 20.4 20.1 19.8 19.3 19.2 18.9 18.8 18 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.8 16.6


Principals behind GVT 1. The objective of hockey is to win 2. The key to winning is goal differential 3. Assigning goal differential to players gives us player value 4. Approximately 6 goals in differential is worth one win


Kovalchuk vs. Kaleta 2010

- Adds ~15 goals/yr over past three years - Equates to ~2.5 wins - Paid ~$7.5 million - $3.5 million / win

- Draws ~ +30 penalties/yr - Equates to ~5 goals, 0.8 wins - Paid ~600K - $0.72 million / win


Let’s talk about the draft


Max GVT round Detroit Red by Wings GVT


DetroitRed GVTWings Drafting Detroit GVT


Minnesota Drafting MinnesotaGVT Wild GVT


Edmonton Drafting EdmontonGVT Oilers GVT


San Drafting SanJose JoseGVT Sharks GVT


Team Drafting Efficiency 3+) Analysis of Point Share(Round and GVT 0.0

0.5

1.0

DET OTT BUF MTL SJS TOR COL NYR NJD VAN BOS LAK STL NYI EDM CGY PIT ANA PHI WSH NSH FLA PHX CHI CBJ DAL MIN CAR TBL ATL

Average GVT

1.5

2.0

2.5


San Jose Draft GVT Distribution NHL Draft GVT Distribution 45.0%

40.0% 35.0%

NHL Distribution

30.0%

25.0% 20.0% 15.0%

10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2

4

Marginal players

6

8

10

12

Good players

14

16

18

Stars

20

>20

Superstars


San San Jose Jose Draft Draft GVT GVT Distribution Distribution 50.0%

45.0% 40.0% 35.0%

NHL Distribution

San Jose

30.0% 25.0%

20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2

4

Marginal players

6

8

10

12

Good players

14

16

18

Stars

20

>20

Superstars


Edmonton GVT Distribution Edmonton Draft GVT Distribution 45.0%

40.0% 35.0% 30.0%

25.0% NHL Distribution

20.0%

Edmonton

15.0%

10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2

4

Marginal players

6

8

10

12

Good players

14

16

18

Stars

20

>20

Superstars


Detroit GVT Distribution Detroit Draft GVT Distribution 45.0%

40.0% 35.0% 30.0%

NHL Distribution

25.0%

Detroit

20.0% 15.0%

10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2

4

Marginal players

6

8

10

12

Good players

14

16

18

Stars

20

>20

Superstars


Minnesota GVT Distribution Minnesota Draft GVT Distribution 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% NHL Distribution

Minnesota

30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

>20


What about player origin?


Minnesota GVT by Distribution Average GVT League Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

League CZECH SLOVAKIA SWEDEN RUSSIA NCAA FINLAND QMJHL WHL OHL BCHL USHS SWITZERLAND USHL AJHL USAN18

Total GVT 447.2 110.1 428.4 506.9 451.1 229.5 362.2 545.9 502.7 40.8 237.7 21.6 98 13.8 9.6

# Of Picks 183 61 264 344 358 184 369 630 604 57 333 33 161 27 28

Average GVT 2.44 1.80 1.62 1.47 1.26 1.25 0.98 0.87 0.83 0.72 0.71 0.65 0.61 0.51 0.34

90th Percentile 10.6 6.25 5.90 5.63 4.25 4.74 3.19 3.38 2.82 1.84 1.40 0.08 1.50 0.84 0.15


Who Should the Oilers Draft This Year?


GVT*

*Max GVT in first seven years of NHL career


Defensemen vs. Forwards


The value of a draft pick  

by Dan Haight

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