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materials intended for Chinese industrial production. As a consequence, economic fabric of some Southeast Asian countries may not be sufficiently developed to resist to an intensified regional competition in the context of economic integration.

En 2014, Le Dessous des Cartes consacrait une émission à l’ASEAN. Retrouvez-la sur Arte-VOD en cliquant ici http: //bit.ly/1Ao1HX9

The AEC aims at establishing a regional single market (which enables free movement of goods, services, skilled labor, and freer flow of capital), enhancing ASEAN competitiveness, and ensuring its equitable development as well as its integration into the global economy. The creation of a single production base will foster the development of production networks, capitalizing on ASEAN’s heterogeneity. The principle is to break the production process down into different steps which can be conducted in different countries, in order to seize the benefits offered by each place – i.e. making diversity a factor of complementarity. Considering the large development gaps between ASEAN countries, this method seems to be particularly suited. It is difficult, if not almost impossible, to give overall figures for the expected benefits of AEC implementation. Yet, it should lead to a significant rise in per capita income, a reduction in the cost of capital due to a freer movement of capital and a more developed financial system, efficiency gains due to free flow of skilled labor, and a greater macroeconomic stability due to prudent policies necessary to maintain the AEC. On the whole, ASEAN Economic Community will help the organization and its member states have more weight in globalization as it is expected to foster trade, especially within the region (over a number of years, intra-ASEAN trade has been accounting for a quarter of total ASEAN trade where intra-EU trade accounts for two thirds of total EU trade). Foreign investors also consider the AEC as an important step forward as it should make the ASEAN region even more business-friendly, all the more so as they already benefit from former agreements signed by member states (1992 ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, AFTA; 1995 ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services, AFAS; 1999 ASEAN Investment Area, AIA).

ASEAN MEMBER STATES’ DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS (2012)

sommaire

08

HDI

GNI per capita (2005 PPP USD)

Urban population (%)

Singapore

0.895 (18 ) 52,613

100.0

Brunei

0.855 (30 ) 45,690

76.4

Malaysia

0.769 (64 ) 13,676

73.5

Thailand

0.690

(103 ) 7,722

34.4

Philippines

0.654

(114 ) 3,752

49.1

Indonesia

0.629

(121 ) 4,154

51.5

Vietnam

0.617

(127 ) 2,970

31.7

Laos

0.543

(138 ) 2,435

35.4

Cambodia

0.543

(138 ) 2,095

20.1

Myanmar

0.498

(149 ) 1,817

33.2

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Yet, it appears more than likely that the AEC will not be fully implemented until 2020, or even later. Measures regarding services liberalization, trade facilitation, and free flow of skilled workforce are considered most problematic. Legislative or regulatory restrictions as well as unclear division of responsibility between national administrations may hamper the adoption of the necessary reforms. In addition, some measures take time to produce substantial effects, such as infrastructure investments or the removal of non-tariff barriers. Furthermore, lingering resentment and border disputes may put the brakes on regional integration. However, even if the AEC implementation runs into difficulties, the most important aspect is that ASEAN member states share the same desire of integration. No matter how slow the process goes now, what makes sense is that the dynamic has been launched.

Sherpa #1 Janvier 2015 par le Lépac (Paris)  
Sherpa #1 Janvier 2015 par le Lépac (Paris)  

Articles, cartes, quiz : ce premier numéro de la lettre géopolitique et prospective du Lépac est consacré aux enjeux politiques et économiqu...

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