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2010 Housing Market Outlook and Forecast

2010 Housing Market Outlook and Forecast

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Executive Summary Tax Credit Extension will Boost Sales in First Half of 2010, Leading into a Strong Spring Market; Second Half of the Year Could Face Big Challenges First Quarter to Remain Steady; Unemployment, Lending, and Foreclosures to Remain Critical Factors for Remainder of the Year The federal tax credit injected a much-needed jolt to the housing market in 2009, offsetting what would have otherwise been a rocky and uncertain year. Single-family home sales activity across New England showed a year-over-year increase in 2009, according to RE/MAX of New England, due primarily to government tax incentives, as well as historically low interest rates and decreasing prices. Rhode Island, which has the second highest unemployment rate in the nation, had the highest percentage rise in single family homes at 14.4%; Maine came in second at 7.9%; Massachusetts saw an increase of 5.0%; Connecticut had a modest increase of 0.7% while Vermont remained flat at .03%. Condominium sales showed consistent decreases across New England with Maine showing the biggest decline at -16.1% and Vermont showing least at -.9%. This can be attributed to low single-family home prices, which provided perfect entry level opportunities for first time home buyers. Multi-family units showed a strong rebound in the majority of New England states suggesting increased investor activity. Rhode Island had the highest increase in transactions at 35.6%; Connecticut posted a 25.9% increase over 2008; Maine showed a 19.0% increase; New Hampshire had a 8.5% increase; and Vermont, which also showed the smallest increase in single-family home sales, had a decrease of -16.6% for the year. Taking a closer look at the fourth quarter of 2009, many New England states showed the effects of first time homebuyers trying to capitalize on the tax credit before its original deadline passed at the end of October, with large transaction gains in that month tempered by a slower November. According to the November AP-RE/MAX National Housing Report, while only a few of New England’s major hubs showed increases from October 2009 to November 2009, all showed double digit increases year-over-year in November 2009. Transactions in Boston, MA were up 5.2% from the previous month and up 61.4% over November 2008; Providence, RI reports transactions up 4.9% versus the previous month and 62.5% over November 2008; Hartford, CT was flat from October to November; but up 67.7% over November 2008; Manchester, NH was down -2.9% over the previous month, but up 67.2% over November 2008, Augusta, ME was down -19.4% from October to November, but up 56.3% over November 2008. 2010 Housing Market Outlook and Forecast

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Single Family Unit Sales, 2009 vs. 2008 CT

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The tax credit remained the major factor in driving first time home buyers to purchase homes in the 3rd and 4th quarters, especially in the Boston and Hartford metropolitans, as inventories there remained balanced between 6.4 and 8.7 months. In the first half of 2010, The Federal Housing Tax Credit will play a big part in the real estate market across the nation. In part, the law extends the first-time home buyer tax credit to June 30, 2010 with a binding sales contract signed by April 30, 2010. In addition, the Act also established a new tax credit of up to $6,500 for qualified, existing home owners who purchase a principal residence by June 30, 2010 also with a binding sales contract signed by April 30, 2010. Recent reports by the National Association of REALTORS® predict that the tax credits could stimulate an additional 2.6 million families to purchase homes, boosting sales in the first half of 2010 by more than 20%. Jay Hummer, Executive Vice President and Regional Director of RE/MAX of New England, is encouraged by the tax credit incentives, but is still cautious about the overall effect on the market. “The tax credit is certainly good news and the market will show its affects in the first and second quarters. However, while unemployment rates still hover around 10% nationally, the economy will remain conservative,” said Hummer. “Another factor is that the majority of consumers are unaware of the new tax credit for existing homeowners. As they become educated and as the media begins to cover this topic more closely, we could see an additional spike in activity.” Another area to watch this year according to Hummer is adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) and subsequent foreclosure activities. For many Americans who chose this option – an estimated 350,000 – the rates will change into fully amortizing mortgages that many will simply not be able to afford. “Foreclosures and short sales are a reality not only in the urban marketplace, but in high end properties as well, and as ARMs change over this year, we will see more and more properties falling into these categories, unfortunately,” said Hummer. “However, for some high-end property owners, whose income falls within the guidelines of the tax credit, they could potentially use the $6,500 credit toward the purchase of another home that is more affordable.” 2010 Housing Market Outlook and Forecast

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In addition, a piece of the real estate market that is not being addressed, according to Hummer, is incentives for investors. “Investors have not returned significantly to the market. There is no stimulus package available for them and lending has been increasingly more difficult, despite the government’s bailout of major lending institutions,” said Hummer. “It’s traditionally been the investors who have taken a large piece of the foreclosure inventory off the marketplace. And, only those who have the ability to buy properties in cash are making out in this lending climate.” Jay Hummer, Executive Vice President and Regional Director for RE/MAX of New England has 25 years of experience in the real estate franchise industry, beginning his career in New York City in 1984. In his role, Hummer oversees 234 offices and 3,000 sales associates throughout Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont. Read more about the housing industry at the RE/MAX of New England blog at remax-newengland.com and follow us on Twitter at @REMAXNE. The RE/MAX web site is www.remax.com.

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Connecticut The Nutmeg State played out like a tale of two different states in 2009. The more affordable and aggressively priced areas including Hartford, New London and Middlesex Counties saw a dramatic uptick in transactions last year. The most affluent area of the State, Fairfield County, suffered double-digit losses across the board, pulling the state’s overall home sales increase down for the year to just 0.7%. In fact, single family homes in Fairfield County were down -11.7% from $427,000 in 2008 to $377,000 in 2009. Condos showed a decrease of -7.9% from $253,000 to $233,000. And, multi families showed the largest decrease of -35.4% pricing from $229,000 in 2008 to $148,000 last year. By comparison, Connecticut’s seven other counties posted smaller, overall price decreases. According to Ed Magilton, Broker/Owner of RE/MAX Enterprise in Bethel, the number of foreclosures in Fairfield County is on the rise, creating an opportunity for buyers previously priced out of the area. “We’re seeing a lot of first time buyers targeting properties around $350,000. In recent years, you couldn’t find a property priced that low in the county. These buyers, along with the foreclosure situations, have really driven our market.” The transactions in Fairfield County have been further stymied by homeowners in foreclosure without the ability to repurchase there. “Foreclosures are one-and-done transactions. Buyers are purchasing vacant properties whose previous owners are not in a position to buy. We’re not seeing the multiple transactions necessary to keep a balanced level of inventory here,” said Magilton.

dramatic increase in transactions from 20082009. “My business is up 43.9% in transactions over 2008. My sales volume is up 26% despite a 13% overall price decrease. Sutton credits the increase in transactions to the reemergence of first time buyers looking to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit. “I’ve transitioned from being a short sale expert in my market to predominantly a first time homebuyer expert.” New London County home prices averaged $159,000 in 2009, an accessible entry-point for many looking to buy their first home. “There’s no question that first time buyers drove the local market. We sold 70% of our short sale listings to first time buyers.” Sutton reports that he sold approximately 50% more homes in December 2009, than he did same time in 2008, specifically to first time buyers. However, he feels that 2009 was a solid year for Connecticut and that there is light at the end of the tunnel. “It continues to be a buyer’s market here, but that’s slowly changing. We’re in a state of transition now and I anticipate a more balanced market by 2011.” However, Sutton is wary of what he believes to be an upcoming short-sale nightmare in 2010 as more multi-family homes will come onto the market. “Until we can clear out the multi-families in the market, we’ll never see a balanced market. And, we can’t do this until there are incentives for investors.” Connecticut Home Sales by Unit 30000

However, this represents an opportunity for move-up buyers who can now afford much more home for their money. “Recently, I have started to see trade-up buyers coming back into the market and looking at that mid-toupper $500,000 to $600,000 price range,” continued Magilton.

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In New London County, Ed Sutton of RE/MAX Flagship in East Hartford, has seen a

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Massachusetts The phrase ‘location is everything’ certainly rang true in the Bay State in 2009. Overall, Massachusetts maintained steady transactions throughout the year, but areas within proximity to jobs, schools and universities, and accessible transportation to Boston, outperformed the rest of the state.

Annette Norton, Broker/Owner of RE/MAX Best Choice in Framingham, had the best sales months this past November, as she has had in five years. “Between low interest rates, the tax credit and median prices down 14%, buyers were jumping in all over Needham, Newton and Framingham.”

Particularly active were towns in Greater Boston, north of Boston, MetroWest, and Western Massachusetts. Conversely, Central Massachusetts and specifically Worcester County, suffered in 2009, due to lending difficulties and appraisal issues, in part.

In Worcester County, Steve Levine, an Associate at RE/MAX First Choice in Northborough, didn’t see an upswing in his business, last year. “We’re down about 30% over 2008 and about 60% over 2006.” Levine says increased difficulty in lending has wreaked havoc on his market, “Financing has been very challenging this year. Private mortgage insurance companies have also increased their down payment requirements by up to 15% down.” However, with affordable pricing in the area, Levine is hopeful that baby boomers will downsize to a more affordable home and take advantage of the new $6,500 tax credit.

The most popular Bay State dwellings in 2009 were single family and multi-family homes. Both posted gains over 2008, of 5.0% and 6.8% respectively. Condominiums, as was the case across the board in New England, were down -2.6% for the year. Linda O’Koniewski, Broker/Owner of RE/MAX Heritage, has offices in Melrose, Reading and Wakefield, where home prices had remained steady in 2009. She said homes in good condition between $350,000 and $500,000 were so much in demand that they often sparked bidding wars. “The week of December 6th, we had 14 offers on a property with some coming in at $35,000 over asking price.” Homes in Back Bay, Beacon Hill and the South End of Boston held their value according to Paul Turcotte, Broker/Owner of RE/MAX Destiny in Cambridge. “Our median condo price is up 0.8% to $439,000 and we’re seeing a seven-month supply of inventory – a pretty balanced market.” Turcotte credits this to a steady revenue stream from area universities including Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), as well as local hospitals. West of Boston, the town of Waltham experienced steady gains due to a surge in first time buyers. According to Gary Rogers, Associate at RE/MAX First Realty in Waltham and 2009 President of the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®, his market was largely comprised of first time buyers in 2009 – that was not the case in 2008. “We did very well as compared to the rest of Massachusetts. We weren’t the strongest, but were definitely in the top 25% in sales this year due to first time buyers.” Rogers points to the Federal tax credit as the reason why, adding that prior to the credit, Waltham was typically comprised of about 35% first time buyers.

In Western Massachusetts, first time buyers and baby boomers are most active, according to Karen King, Broker/Owner of RE/MAX Prestige in Wilbraham. “In the third and fourth quarters of 2009, the phones were steadily ringing and we closed 10% more transactions than last year.” According to Annette Norton, an area for Bay State residents to watch in 2010 could be an influx of high-end foreclosures in the more affluent communities of Lexington, Wayland, Sudbury and Wellesley. “I’m just starting to see properties in foreclosure in the $800,000 - $1,000,000 range. We haven’t really seen high-end foreclosures in Massachusetts in the past.” This could mean more affordable options for buyers looking to purchase in previously unaffordable areas. In addition, as first time and existing buyers scramble to purchase homes in the first and second quarter of 2010 before the tax incentives end, Massachusetts’ homes inventory could be seriously depleted leading into the third and fourth quarters. Massachusetts Home Sales by Unit 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000

Similarly, MetroWest benefited from an inventory of affordable homes priced for the first time buyer. 2010 Housing Market Outlook and Forecast

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Maine In 2009, the Pine Tree state showed the second highest increase in single family home transactions in New England, posting a 7.9% increase for the year.

“Our offices work with a wide array of properties at different price points. A huge problem in 2009 was trying to get an accurate appraisal. It definitely slowed the process down, ended some transactions, and is an issue we need to address moving into 2010.”

According to sales figures published by the Maine Association of REALTORS®, singlefamily home sales increased 48.6% in November 2009, compared to November 2008, showing the significant effect of the first time homebuyer credit.

A bright spot in the State’s market, according to LePage, is that unlike other New England states, he hasn’t seen a real difficulty in homeowners obtaining loans. That, coupled with low interest rates and the tax credit fueled the last quarter of 2009.

Conversely, out of all the New England states, condominium sales were hardest hit in Maine. The state showed a sales decrease of -19%. Across the border, New Hampshire faired much better posting an increase of 8.5%.

Maine was largely untouched by the foreclosure crisis affecting other states in 2008, most notably Rhode Island. However, that could change in 2010 according to LePage. “We were fortunate here and didn’t see a lot of foreclosures. However, I believe that’s about to change, and we’re going to see a surplus of properties in this area. In addition, because the tax incentives end at the end of April – we’re going to see seller’s aggressively put their homes on the market in the first quarter of the year, adding to our existing inventory.”

This might be due in part to the lower median price of a single family home last year, $153,000, compared to the median price of a condominium at $170,000. Consumer preference tends to run toward single-family homes if comparable to a condominium and in the same price range. Multi-family homes faired much better, with a 19.01% increase over 2008, most likely due to a 20% decrease in home values, making it the most affordable option in the State for many first time buyers.

Maine’s real estate market in 2010 will ultimately come down to jobs. While Maine’s unemployment rate hovers around 8%, higher than neighboring Vermont and New Hampshire, there will be caution in the real estate market. “The number one thing we need to look at in 2010 is unemployment. If we can hold our number, we’ll be okay. If we start to see growth, it will trickle down into all other areas of our local economy,” said LePage.

Mike LePage, Broker/Owner of RE/MAX Heritage in Yarmouth and President Elect of the Maine Association of REALTORS®, saw fairly flat sales in 2009, along his coastal territories. “We’re slightly up over 2008, and that’s really because the market priced itself correctly and government incentive programs had a big impact on first time buyers here.” LePage, who services Maine’s coast from Brunswick, through Portland, to Cape Elizabeth, services a wide array of clients from first time buyers through million-dollar home consumers. One issue common to every consumer is the difficulty in getting an accurate appraisal of a home.

Maine Home Sales by Unit 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Single Family

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New Hampshire The Granite State showed a steady increase in single-family home sales in 2009, rising 4.3% over 2008, and ranking fourth in New England for total sales increase.

to further increase over the next two years. “We saw a tremendous surge in three specific segments in 2009, the lower-priced homes, the foreclosures and the short sales.”

According to the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, New Hampshire residential home sales experienced the largest single month increase in history, as November 2009 unit sales jumped 70 percent over November 2008. In addition, each of the State’s ten counties saw at least double digit percentage sales gains, including a 61 percent jump in the state’s largest county Hillsborough – from 183 residential sales in November 2008 to 295 in November 2009.

Conversely, Hamblett is beginning to see move-up buyers and higher-end buyers coming back into the market. “The good news here is that we are starting to see move-up buyers back in the market, as well as the elusive high-end buyer. Those buyers have restored some of their previous wealth lost with the stock market crash at the end of 2008, and have greater confidence to purchase.”

While the majority of consumers prefer single family homes, the most popular house type purchased in 2009 was the multifamily. Posting an increase of 8.5%, these units represented affordable, well-priced homes perfectly suited for first time buyers. Condominiums, the hardest hit segment in 2009 across New England, had the second smallest decrease in New Hampshire remaining largely flat with a decline of just -1%. According to Paul Hamblett, a Broker/Owner with RE/MAX Coast to Coast in Portsmouth, buying a home on the soughtafter coast in New Hampshire has never been as affordable. “Interest rates are hovering around 5.0%, we have a decent amount of inventory, and the average single family home on the coast is around $250,000,” he said.

In Manchester, Broker/Owner Pam Young of RE/MAX Omega Group, has seen an influx of first time and move-up buyers. “The average price for a single-family home in Manchester is about $225,000, so we have seen more first time buyers here trying to use the tax credit before its original expiration. We have also seen a fair number of move-up buyers in the market, looking to take advantage of lower prices.” According to Hamblett, 2010 will be a mixed bag. He believes that as the financial market stabilizes this year, move up and high-end buyers will come back to the market and substantially increase sales and dollar volume, perhaps removing some of the anticipated high-end foreclosures. However, as that happens, more and more first time buyers could be priced out of the market.

New Hampshire Home Sales by Unit 16000

In fact, the median price for a single family home statewide was $197,000 last year, down 10.0% from 2008. With no state income tax or sales tax, buyers who choose to call New Hampshire home will have more money to spend.

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However, the number of short sales in New Hampshire has increased according to Hamblett and he anticipates seeing that number

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Rhode Island With the unemployment rate at 12.7% in the last quarter of 2009, the Ocean State’s unemployed represent the second-highest in the nation behind Michigan. However, despite dwindling employment opportunities, there was a bright spot in the economy, as Rhode Island posted the highest overall gain in single family home transactions in New England in 2009, up 14.4%. In fact, the State also posted the highest percentage increase in multi-family homes in New England at 35.63%.

prices also fell from $208,000 to $173,000 in 2009, a -16.8% decrease. Multi-family homes, which posted the highest increase in sales anywhere in New England, averaged $94,000, down -31.9% from $133,000 in 2008. Rhode Island Home Sales by Unit 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000

Condominiums did not fare as well, as was also evidenced throughout New England in 2009. Rhode Island showed a minimal decrease of -1.3% in sales over 2008, the second lowest decline in New England following New Hampshire at -1%. By comparison, across the border in Massachusetts and Connecticut, condominium sales fell -2.6% and -7.7% respectively. Karl Martone, Associate at RE/MAX Properties of New England and RI Association of REALTORS® President, says that his business was up in 2009 due to affordable pricing and low interest rates. “It seems like I sat on 300 – 375 listings for such a long time in the beginning of 2009. But, once we got into the second and third quarters the tax credit stimulated sales as well as affordable pricing.” According to The Warren Group, November 2009 was a near-historic sales month in Rhode Island with single-family home sales surging 66.5%, the biggest monthly sales jump yearover-year in two decades. Condominium sales were also up 37.7% for the month, the third consecutive month that condo sales rose in the Ocean State. Home prices across the board went down in 2009. The median price of a single family home in Rhode Island was $202,000, down -13.3% from $233,000 in 2008. Condominium

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Martone sees the $8,000 tax credit extension for first time buyers and the new $6,500 tax credit for existing home owners as a big boost to the industry’s traditionally slow first quarter of 2010. “The tax credits will certainly help us get through those tough first months of the year. However, not a lot of consumers know about the $6,500 credit – the more education we can put around this, the better we’ll do going into the spring market.” The number of days that homes spent on the market in 2009 showed little change from 2008. Days on market for single family homes were 96 in 2009 versus 97, in 2008. Condos spent slightly longer on the market in 2009 at 130 days versus 112 days in 2008. And, multifamily homes were bought quickly, spending only 83 days, on average, on the market compared to 95 in 2008. Martone maintains that the worst of Rhode Island’s troubled economy might be in the past. “I’m seeing a balanced market right now at six months of inventory for single-family homes. Condos and multi families are closer to a year’s worth of inventory. However, the growth we’re experiencing is a healthy growth that is happening a little at a time.”

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Vermont Remaining largely flat in 2009, the Green Mountain State was not hit as hard by a crashing economy at the end of 2008, as many of its neighboring New England states.

A trend that he also sees happening is that consumers are purchasing closer and closer to the core of cities like Burlington because they can afford to, and that’s where the jobs are.

Single family homes stayed relatively flat, posting a modest 0.03% gain; condominium sales were down -0.9% over 2008, and multi family homes, the most volatile of the real estate categories in New England, were down -16.6%.

One critical area of Vermont’s market that has been decimated in 2009 is Vacation and second homes. “The high-end homes are really depressed in this area. There are problems getting loans, and there aren’t any incentives,” said Desautels. Home values in popular second-home areas like Stowe have seen double-digit decreases in 2009.

Bill Desautels, Broker/Owner of RE/MAX North Professionals in Colchester, maintains that the worst of Vermont’s real estate problems appeared in early 2009. “The low point of our market was the first quarter of the year. The entire State was off by more than 30%. However, the year finished with an increase overall.” That increase was due, in large part to the tax credit for first time buyers coupled with homes priced in the $150,000 - $250,000, an affordable entry point for many first time buyers in Vermont. In fact, prices throughout the State were attractive to first-time buyers. In 2009, the median price of a single family home was $205,000, and condos and multi families were $188,000 and $197,000, respectively. The majority of Desautels’ business in 2009 was from first time and move-up buyers looking to take advantage of low prices. In Chittenden County, Vermont’s largest, the median price of a single family home was $265,000 a compelling price point for a move-up buyer.

Desautels believes Vermont’s 2010 market will see an uptick in condominium activity as Generation Y consumers start to become active in the marketplace. “The younger buyers will be active but cautious in the market; they’ll look for good values and won’t want to overextend themselves. Condos fit that bill perfectly.” He also believes that as the stock market rebounds, so too will the second-home market. “As portfolios increase again, so will the desire to purchase that vacation or second home while prices are down significantly.” Vermont continues to maintain the secondlowest bankruptcy rate in the nation and the unemployment rate remains steady at 7.5% well under the national average. These factors combined bode well for the real estate market in 2010. Vermont Home Sales by Unit 3500 3000

Desautels maintains that the State would see more move-up buyers in the market if they understood that there is a new tax incentive geared toward them. However, he feels the new tax credit is largely unknown by the majority of consumers due to a lack of coverage in media and a focus on the first-time buyer credit.

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Sources Jay Hummer, EVP and Regional Director RE/MAX of New England 8 Strathmore Road Natick, MA 01760 Office: (508) 655-9400 Bill Desautels, Broker/Owner RE/MAX North Professionals 875 Roosevelt Highway Colchester VT 05446 Office: (802) 861-6217 bill@movevermont.com www.homesvermont.com Paul Hamblett, Broker/Owner RE/MAX Coast Coast Properties 150 Mirona Road Portsmouth, NH 03801 Office: (603) 501-3813 phamblett@remax.net www.seacoasthomesnh.com Karen King, Associate RE/MAX Prestige 2141 Boston Rd, Suite H Wilbraham, MA 01095 Office: (413) 596-3566 Karen@kking.com www.westernmahomeinfo.com Mike LePage, Broker/Owner RE/MAX Heritage 765 Route One Yarmouth, ME 04096 Office: (207) 846-4300 x121 mlepage@heritage.com www.rheritage.com Steve Levine, Associate RE/MAX First Choice 155 Otis Street Northborough, MA 01532 Office: (508) 351-1555 steve@shrewsbury.net www.firstchoicehomesma.com

Ed Magilton, Broker/Owner RE/MAX Enterprise 122 Greenwood Avenue Bethel, CT 06801 Office: (203) 744-2400 edmagilton@msn.com www.remaxenterprise.com Karl Martone, Associate RE/MAX Properties 696 Douglas Pike Smithfield, RI 02917 Office: (401) 232-7900 x317 karl@martonegroup.com www.martonegroup.com Pam Young, Broker/Owner RE/MAX Omega Group 207 Hooksett Road Manchester, NH 03104 Office: (603)-622-2200 Ext.127 PJYoung@manchesterNHhomes.com www.manchesternhhomes.com Annette Norton, Broker/Owner RE/MAX Best Choice 665 Cochituate Road Framingham, MA 01701 Office: (508) 872-3113 anorton@remax.net Linda O’Koniewski, Broker/Owner RE/MAX Heritage 653 Main Street Melrose, MA 02176 Office: (781) 979-0100 Peglinda@aol.com www.remax-heritage-melrose-ma.com Gary Rogers, Associate 2009 President, MAR RE/MAX First Realty 689 Main Street Waltham, MA 02451 Office: (781) 891-1600 info@YourhomewithGary.com www.bostonwesthomes.com

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Ed Sutton, Broker/Owner RE/MAX Flagship 28 Main Street East Hartford, CT 06118 Office: (860) 569-1114 ext. 16 edsutton@rmflagship.com www.edsutton.net

Massachusetts TORS®

Paul Turcotte, Broker/Owner RE/MAX Destiny 907 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139 Office: (617)576-3800 pturcotte@yourguidehome.com www.yourguidehome.com

Rhode Island Association of REALTORS®

Maine Association of REALTORS®

Association

of

REAL-

National Association of REALTORS® New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®

Vermont Housing Finance Agency The Warren Group CMLS CTMLS MLSPIN MREIS NNEREN RIMLS and VREIN as interpreted by BrokerMetrics

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2010 Housing Market Outlook and Forecast

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RE/MAX Market Outlook 2010 Report  

RE/MAX 2010 Housing Market Outlook.

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