India Infrastructure Report Q2 2012 Published: March 2012
No. of Pages: 151
BMI View: Statistical data shows that construction and infrastructure activity in India remained weak through the first nine months of FY2011/12 (April-March), justifying our view of a prolonged soft patch for the Indian construction sector in FY2011/12. Going into FY2012/13, however, we believe that the sector's fortunes will start to improve, with monetary conditions providing an additional tailwind for the 12th Five-Year Plan. We are forecasting real growth for the construction sector to reach 7.2% iFY12/13 and average 8.1% between FY13/14 and FY16/17. Key drivers affecting growth include: 1. In November 2011, the Indian government had announced that it would defer starting operations on a US$2.6bn nuclear power plant in Kudankulam, due to ongoing negotiations with local residents opposing the project. According to NPCIL, the first reactor was originally scheduled to commence operations in December 2011, but the Fukushima nuclear crisis in Japan has intensified local opposition towards the Kudankulam plant, with food supplies and personnel prevented from entering the project site, located in the state of Tamil Nadu. The completion of an safety study failed to appease local opposition. 2. In December 2011, the India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited (IIFCL) announced plans to join forces with a group of private banks to launch a US$1bn infrastructure debt fund (IDF) by the end of February 2012. The fund, which was approved by the Indian Finance Ministry on December 3 2011, would be led by IIFCL and co-sponsored by a combination of foreign banks - HSBC , the Asian Development Bank (ADB) - and local banks - IDBI Bank and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC). 3. In December 2011,t Indian government gave its provisional approval to 11 proposed sites for new nuclear power facilities, reports newkerala.com. The largest plant to receive 'inprinciple' approval is located at Jaitapur in Maharashtra and will have a total capacity of 9900MW 4. In January 2012, the Indian government initiated a new stimulus plan, requiring 17 stateowned companies to utilise their reserves to invest in infrastructure and energy assets in FY2012/13. The plan opens up a considerable new source of capital for India's infrastructure sector (approximately US$35bn) and could address the government's lack of fiscal ability to increase infrastructure spending.
Indian Infrastructure Industry Table of Content Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis . 6 India Tourism SWOT . 6 India Political SWOT . 7 India Economic SWOT ... 8 India Business Environment SWOT ... 9
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 10 Arrivals . 10 Table: Arrivals, 2008-2015 .. 10 Expenditure ... 11 Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2008-2015 ... 11 Inbound Tourism ... 11 Table: Inbound Tourism, 2008-2015 ... 12 Outbound Tourism 17 Table: Outbound Tourism, 2008-2015 . 17 Market Overview – Travel .. 18 Commercial Airlines . 18 Focus On Jet Airways ... 19 Focus On Kingfisher Airlines 20 Low-Cost Carriers 20 Table: Selected Airlines’ Domestic Market Share, 2010 .. 21 Improving Infrastructure .. 21 Cruises .. 22 Global Oil Products Price Outlook ... 23 Market Overview – Hospitality .. 29 Hotels 29 Table: Hotels Data, 2007-2015 30 Accommodation Developments . 30 Gaming . 32 Medical Tourism ... 32 H5N1 And H1N1 Virus Update ... 34 Business Environment Outlook 36 Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 36 BMI’s Security Ratings . 36 Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 37 Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 38 India’s Security Ratings 38 South Asia Security Overview ... 40 South Asia In A Global Context ... 40 Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security... 41 External Power Dynamics ... 50 Outlook For South Asia ... 53 Global Assumptions .. 55 Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 ... 55 Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ... 56 Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2013 ... 56 Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 . 57 Developed States .. 57 Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 . 58 Emerging Markets ... 58 Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth. 2010-2013 ... 59 Consensus 60 Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 (%) 60 Company Profiles ... 61 Jet Airways .. 61
National Aviation Company of India (Air India) .. 63 Taj Hotels 65 BMI Methodology ... 66 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 66 Tourism Industry .. 66 Tourism Ratings â€“ Methodology .. 67 Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators ... 68 Table: Weighting of Components . 69 Sources 69 Manufacturing & Construction