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ISSN 2287-7266

Republic of Korea

eb.kdi.re.kr

Vol.38 No.11 November 2016

CONOMIC U L L E T I N

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issue

Restructuring Plans for Shipbuilding and Shipping Industries Measures to Curb Housing Market Overheating

Economic News Briefing

Korea Ranks 5th in World Bank’s Doing Business Report Government Announces New Fintech Roadmap Korean FDI Up 11.2% in Jan-Sep Period Korea Grows 0.7% in Q3

Statistical Appendices


02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview 

03

01. External economic situation

04

02. Private consumption

09

03. Facility investment

11

04. Construction investment

13

05. Exports and imports

16

06. Mining and manufacturing production

18

07. Service sector activity

21

08. Employment

23

09. Financial markets

27

9.1 Stock market

27

9.2 Exchange rate

28

9.3 Bond market

28

9.4 Money supply and money market

29

10. Balance of payments

31

11. Prices

33

11.1 Consumer prices

33

11.2 International oil and commodity prices

35

12. Real estate market

38

12.1 Housing market

38

12.2 Land market

41

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

contents

43

45 Policy Issue Restructuring plans for shipbuilding and shipping industries Measures to curb housing market overheating

49 Economic News Briefing Korea ranks 5th in World Bank’s Doing Business report Government announces new fintech roadmap Korea-US envoy talks reaffirm need for stronger bilateral cooperation under new US administration 2nd Ministerial Meeting to Address Current Economic Issues held Korean FDI up 11.2% in Jan-Sep period Korea grows 0.7% in Q3 (advanced)

53 Statistical Appendices

Editor-in-Chief Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI) Jung Moo-Kyung (MOSF) Editorial Board Lee Young-Joo (MOSF) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Yu Seong-Im (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) Editors Jeon Aram (MOSF) Kim Hanul (MOSF) Kang Ji-Eun (KDI)


The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview

01. External economic situation

02. Private consumption 03. Facility investment 04. Construction investment 05. Exports and imports 06. Mining and manufacturing production 07. Service sector activity 08. Employment 09. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators 02

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Overview

The Korean economy has seen domestic demand weaken and production slow due to a halt in sales of Samsung’s Galaxy Note 7 smartphones and as consumption boosted by last month’s unusually hot weather slowed. The economy added fewer jobs in September than the previous month (387,000 → 267,000, y-o-y) due to weather-related factors and as job growth in the manufacturing sector continued to decelerate. Consumer prices rose at a slightly faster rate in October compared with the previous month (up 1.2% → up 1.3%, y-o-y) despite a drop in agricultural product prices, as electricity rates that were temporarily lowered in July, August and September returned to normal levels and petroleum product prices fell at a slower rate. Mining and manufacturing production rose 0.3 percent month-on-month in September as production in the auto industry improved. Service output fell 0.6 percent month-on-month in September due to weak wholesale & retail and transportation services. Retail sales fell 4.5 percent month-on-month in September due to weak sales of home electronics, mobile phones and food, as sales of the Galaxy Note 7 have been halted, agricultural product prices rose and consumption boosted by seasonal factors, such as unusually hot weather and the Chuseok holiday, has slowed. Facility investment fell 2.1 percent month-on-month due to a base effect related to a large investment in the semiconductor industry in the previous month. Construction completed fell 4.7 percent after rising for four consecutive months. In September, the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.3 points month-on-month as retail sales and the value of construction completed decreased. The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.2 points due to an increase in the value of construction orders received. Exports decreased at a slower pace in October (down 5.9% → down 3.2%, y-o-y), as shipments of vessels improved. Stock prices fell and both the dollar-won exchange rate and Treasury bond yields rose in October as global investors’ risk aversion increased due to expectations for the Fed’s interest rate hike and uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. Housing prices increased at a faster rate than the previous month in October (up 0.08% → 0.17%, m-o-m) and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices also rose at a faster rate (up 0.08% → up 0.14%, m-o-m) because of rising apartment prices in the Gangnam district due to reconstruction plans as well as strong seasonal demand.

November 2016

03


Although domestic demand is expected to improve in October due to a low base effect and the government’s consumption-boosting policies, such as the Korea Sales Festa, there is growing uncertainty related to the US presidential election, Brexit and weak economic sentiment. The government will closely monitor domestic and global economic developments as well as examine the possible impact of internal and external uncertainties on domestic financial markets. The government will swiftly implement the supplementary budget and 10 trillion won worth of fiscal stimulus measures, and work to support consumption, investment and exports.

1. External economic situation

Major economies, including the eurozone and Japan, have yet to build up recovery momentum, emerging economies continue to struggle and risks to the global economy, such as Brexit, remain.

World GDP growth

Source: International Monetary Fund

7 (%) 6

5

4

3

2

1

0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

US

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

The US economy grew 2.9 percent (annualized q-o-q, advanced estimates) in the third quarter of 2016, despite a slowdown in consumption, as exports and investment improved. Production and consumption both rose in September.

04

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Industrial production rose 0.1 percent month-on-month in September as manufacturing (up 0.2%) and mining (up 0.4%) improved. Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in the third quarter, after declining for three consecutive quarters. ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 48.2 (Jan 2016) → 49.5 (Feb) → 51.8 (Mar) → 50.8 (Apr) → 51.3 (May) → 53.2 (Jun) → 52.6 (Jul) → 49.4 (Aug) → 51.5 (Sep) → 51.9 (Oct)

US GDP growth and industrial production

Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board

10 (%) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q)

Retail sales rose 0.6 percent month-on-month in September, meeting market expectations, backed by strong auto sales (up 1.1%). Consumer sentiment indexes for October fell. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (1966=100) 91.0 (Mar 2016) → 89.0 (Apr) → 94.7 (May) → 93.5 (Jun) → 90.0 (Jul) → 89.8 (Aug) → 91.2 (Sep) → 87.2 (Oct) Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 96.1 (Mar 2016) → 94.7 (Apr) → 92.4 (May) → 97.4 (Jun) → 96.7 (Jul) → 101.8 (Aug) → 104.1 (Sep) → 98.6 (Oct)

Existing home sales rose 3.2 percent month-on-month to an annualized pace of 5,470,000 in September, increasing for the first time in three months due to a strong labor market, while new home sales rose 3.2 percent month-on-month. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %) 5.6 (Dec 2015) → 5.6 (Jan 2016) → 5.4 (Feb) → 5.5 (Mar) → 5.4 (Apr) → 5.2 (May) → 5.1 (Jun) → 5.0 (Jul) → 5.1 (Aug) New home sales (m-o-m, %) 5.9 (Dec 2015) → -2.2 (Jan 2016) → -0.2 (Feb) → 2.3 (Mar) → 6.1 (Apr) → -0.7 (May) → -1.4 (Jun) → 12.7 (Jul) → -8.6 (Aug) → 3.1 (Sep)

November 2016

05


Both the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate fell slightly in October, declining to 4.9 percent and 62.8 percent, respectively. Nonfarm payrolls added 161,000 jobs in October led by construction and public sector jobs. Labor force participation rate (%) 63.0 (Mar 2016) → 62.8 (Apr) → 62.6 (May) → 62.7 (Jun) → 62.8 (Jul) → 62.8 (Aug) → 62.9 (Sep) → 62.8 (Oct) Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands) 186 (Mar 2016) → 144 (Apr) → 24 (May) → 271 (Jun) → 252 (Jul) → 176 (Aug) → 191 (Sep) → 161 (Oct)

US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor 800

12 (thousands)

(%)

600 10 400 200

8

0 6 -200 -400

4

-600 2 -800 -1,000

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)

0

2016.1

Unemployment rate (right)

(Percentage change from previous period)

Real GDP1 - Personal consumption expenditures - Nonresidential fixed investment

2015 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Q1 Q2 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.0 2.6 1.5

2.9

3.2

Q3 2.0

Q4 0.9

Q1 0.8

Q2 1.4

2016 Q3 Jul Aug Sep 2.9 -

2.3

Oct -

2.4

2.9

2.7

1.6

4.3

2.1

-

-

-

-

1.3

1.6

3.9 -3.3 -3.4

1.0

1.2

-

-

-

-

7.8 -7.7 -6.2

-

-

-

-

3.5

6.0

2.1

11.9

3.5

11.7

Industrial production

1.9

2.9

0.3

-0.5 -0.7

0.4 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2

0.4

0.5 -0.5

0.1

-

Retail sales

3.8

4.1

2.3

-0.7

1.5

1.0

0.7

0.1 -0.2

0.6

-

Existing home sales

9.1

-3.1

6.3

-0.7

4.6

2.3 -3.8

1.9

3.8 -2.2 -3.4 -1.5

3.2

-

Unemployment rate²

7.4

6.2

5.3

5.5

5.4

5.2

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

5.0

4.9

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

1.5

1.6

0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.4

1.1

1.1

1.1

0.8

1.1

1.5

-

- Residential fixed investment

13.3 14.9 12.6 11.5

1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted (%) Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg

06

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

0.2 -0.1

1.5


China

China’s economy grew 6.7 percent in the third quarter, meeting market expectations, backed by strong retail sales. Sales of both durable and nondurable goods increased due to strong auto sales (up 13.1%, y-o-y) and online sales (up 25.1%, y-o-y).

China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics 70

18 (%)

(%)

16

60

14

50

12

40

10

30

8

20

6

10

4

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

GDP (y-o-y, left)

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

0

2016.Q1

Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2013

2015

2014

Annual Annual Annual

2016

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Jul

Aug

Sep

Real GDP

7.7

7.3

6.9

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.7

6.7

-

-

-

Industrial production

9.7

8.3

6.1

6.3

5.9

5.9

5.8

6.1

6.1

6.0

6.3

6.1

Fixed asset investment (accumulated, nominal)

19.6

15.7

10.0

11.4

10.3

10.0

10.7

9.0

8.2

8.1

8.1

8.2

Retail sales (nominal)

13.1

12.0

10.7

10.2

10.7

11.1

10.3

10.2

10.5

10.2

10.6

10.7

Exports

8.6

5.5

-2.5

-2.1

-5.9

-5.0

-9.6

-3.6

-5.8

-4.4

-2.8

-10.0

Consumer prices1

2.6

2.0

1.4

1.4

1.7

1.5

2.1

2.1

1.7

1.8

1.3

1.9

Producer prices1

-1.9

-1.9

-5.2

-4.8

-5.7

-5.9

-4.8

-2.9

-0.8

-1.7

-0.8

0.1

1. Quarterly change: Average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

November 2016

07


Japan

Japan’s economy continued to show signs of a slowdown as retail sales were dampened by a typhoon, exports continued to decline and both consumer and core consumer prices continued to fall. Core consumer prices (excluding fresh food, y-o-y, %) -0.3 (Mar 2016) → -0.4 (Apr) → -0.4 (May) → -0.4 (Jun) → -0.5 (Jul) → -0.5 (Aug) → -0.5 (Sep)

Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production

Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

6

25 (%)

(%) 20

4

15 10

2

5 0

0 -5

-2

-10 -15

-4

-20 -6

-25 2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, left)

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

(Percentage change from previous period)

2013

2015

2014

2016

Real GDP

1.4

0.0

0.6

Q2 -0.4

Industrial production

-0.6

2.1

-1.2

-1.3

-1.0

0.0

-1.0

Retail sales (nominal)

1.2

1.7

-0.4

0.2

1.0

-0.2

-2.3

0.1

0.9

1.5

-1.2

0.0

Exports (y-o-y)

9.5

4.8

3.4

6.7

3.7

-4.6

-7.9

-9.5

-10.2

-14.0

-9.6

-6.9

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

0.4

2.7

0.8

0.5

0.1

0.3

0.0

-0.4

-0.5

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

Annual Annual Annual

Q3 0.5

Q4 -0.4

Q1 0.5

Q2 0.2

Q3 -

Jul -

Aug -

Sep -

0.2

1.1

-0.4

1.3

0.0

Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan

Eurozone

The eurozone economy grew 0.3 percent in the third quarter, the same rate as the previous quarter, while Brexit-related uncertainty recently increased after the UK High Court ruled on November 3 that parliamentary approval was required for Brexit negotiations to start.

08

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production

Source: Eurostat

3

10 (%)

(%)

8

2

6 4

1

2 0

0

-2 -1

-4 -6

-2

-8 -3

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, left)

2015.Q1

-10

2016.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

(Percentage change from previous period)

2013

2014

2015 Q2 0.4

Q3 0.3

Q4 0.5

Q1 0.5

Q2 0.3

2016

Real GDP

-0.3

1.2

2.0

Q1 0.8

Industrial production

-0.7

0.9

1.5

0.7

0.1

0.4

0.1

0.8

-0.4

-

-0.7

1.6

-

Retail sales

-0.6

1.4

2.7

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.2

0.7

0.3

0.3

0.3

-0.2

-0.2

Exports (y-o-y)

1.0

2.2

5.4

5.5

8.2

4.5

3.6

-0.9

-0.3

-

-9.5

8.2

-

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

1.4

0.4

0.0

-0.3

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.0

-0.1

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.4

Annual Annual Annual

Q3 0.3

Jul -

Aug -

Sep -

Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg

2. Private consumption

Private consumption (advanced GDP) in the third quarter of 2016 rose 0.5 percent compared to the previous quarter and rose 2.6 percent compared to a year ago. (Percentage change from previous period)

2013 1.9

1.7

Q1 0.4

-

-

2.8

Annual Annual

Private consumption² (y-o-y)

2014 Q2 -0.3

Q3 0.7

Q4 Annual¹ 0.3 2.2

Q1¹ 0.8

2015

1.7

1.4

1.1

1.5

-

-0.1

Q3¹ 1.1

Q4¹ 1.4

Q1¹ -0.2

2016 Q2¹ 1.0

Q3¹ 0.5

1.7

2.2

3.3

2.2

3.3

2.6

Q2¹

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea

November 2016

09


Private consumption

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

12 (%)

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Private consumption (q-o-q)

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

Private consumption (y-o-y)

Retail sales in September fell 4.5 percent month-on-month as sales of durable goods (down 6.1%), such as mobile phones, sales of semi-durable goods (down 0.6%), such as clothing, and sales of nondurable goods (down 5.1%), such as food, all decreased. Year-on-year, the index rose 0.5 percent. (Percentage change from previous period)

-

-

2014 Q3 1.4

-

Q1 1.0

(y-o-y)

0.7

2.0

2.0

2.4

3.9

2.2

3.4

3.6

6.1

3.6

6.1

0.5

- Durable goods2

0.3

5.1

3.2

0.4

10.2

4.3

0.8

2.0

8.2

-7.0

4.4

-6.1

· Automobiles

2013 Annual Annual

Retail sales

Q4 0.3

Annual

2015 Q2 0.7

Q3 1.3

Q4 3.1

Q3¹ -1.7

2016 Aug¹ 2.0

Sep¹ -4.5

2.1

16.4

5.1

0.3

21.3

7.0

5.4

3.5

11.2

-19.9

-0.3

1.7

- Semi-durable goods3

2.1

-0.8

3.9

-2.3

-1.2

-2.0

-1.0

1.8

2.8

-0.8

-1.7

-0.6

- Nondurable goods4

0.4

1.6

-0.8

1.3

2.5

0.6

1.2

0.7

0.3

1.3

2.2

-5.1

1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea

Retail sales

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

20 (%) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Retail sales (m-o-m)

10

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Retail sales (y-o-y)


Retail sales by type

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

50 (y-o-y, %) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

Durable goods

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Nondurable goods

Semi-durable goods

In October, credit card use, department store sales and large discount store sales rose. (Percentage change from same preriod in previous year)

2016 Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

13.9

7.2

22.7

12.9

9.1

15.0

9.1

12.4

Department store sales

4.8

8.0

1.5

13.5

11.2

4.8

4.2

5.6

Large discount store sales

-1.4

0.2

-5.5

2.9

5.8

0.2

-0.4

4.8

Domestic sales of gasoline

-0.7

1.6

7.2

4.6

2.3

9.7

6.2

-2.9

Domestic sales of cars

18.9

5.8

20.8

24.1

-10.5

-11.1

-10.9

-11.5

Credit card use

Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, data provided by retail industries

3. Facility investment

Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) fell 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter and 4.5 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2016. 2014 Facility investment² (y-o-y)

Annual

Annual¹

6.0

5.3

Q1¹ 0.5

(Percentage change from previous period)

2015 Q2¹ 0.8

Q3¹ 1.8

Q4¹ 0.5

Q1¹ -7.4

2016 Q2¹ 2.8

Q3¹ -0.1

-

-

5.8

5.1

6.7

3.9

-4.5

-2.7

-4.5

- Machinery

5.0

2.1

0.1

-2.9

0.8

-3.0

-6.4

1.9

-

- Transportation equipment

8.3

12.5

1.5

9.3

3.7

7.4

-9.4

4.5

-

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea

November 2016

11


Facility investment

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

40 (%) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Facility investment (q-o-q)

2016.Q1

Facility investment (y-o-y)

Facility investment by type Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50 (y-o-y, %) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Transportation equipment

2016.Q1

Machinery

The facility investment index in September fell 2.1 percent month-on-month as both machinery and transportation equipment investment decreased. The index declined 4.2 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)

6.3

Q1 -0.2

2015 Q2 -2.2

Q3 5.2

Q4 -1.2

Q1 -8.7

Q2 6.4

2016 Q31 -1.6

Aug1 13.4

Sep1 -2.1

-

9.2

4.5

10.2

1.6

-7.1

0.8

-4.9

2.9

-4.2

2014 Facility investment index (y-o-y)

Annual

Annual

5.2 -

- Machinery

3.9

2.9

-0.1

-6.0

0.7

-2.6

-5.3

-0.3

8.9

14.8

-2.6

- Transportation equipment

8.8

14.9

-1.0

8.8

16.5

1.0

-14.3

20.5

-20.9

10.2

-0.9

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

12

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


The facility investment outlook is mixed: Machinery imports and facility investment adjustment pressure decreased, but domestic machinery orders and the average manufacturing operation ratio increased.

Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 60

10 (trillion won)

(y-o-y, %)

9 40 8 7

20

6 0

5 4

-20

3 2

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Machinery orders (left)

-40

2016.Q1

Machinery imports (right)

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2014 14.8

-3.6

Q1 -3.0

-

-

-0.1

Annual Annual

Domestic machinery orders (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Public - Private Machinery imports

94.2 -61.7 -66.9 4.8

10.0

11.4

2015 Q2 Q3 14.9 -27.1

Q4 6.9

Q1 0.9

Q2 -2.9

2016 Q31 0.6

Aug1 -2.7

Sep1 3.8

8.6 -10.0

9.2

-2.9

4.6

-6.0

-9.7

12.2

61.7 -85.3 -19.8

56.9

15.4

17.6 -47.3 214.4

12.5

-2.9

-4.3

-0.7

2.0

4.7

10.8

-8.6

5.8

0.3

8.5

-1.1

2.3

-6.4 -13.0

-6.7

-2.2

13.4

-2.2

Average manufacturing operation ratio (%)

76.1

74.3

74.3

74.3

74.9

73.6

73.2

72.2

71.8

70.2

71.4

Facility investment adjustment pressure²

-1.4

-1.8

-2.8

-2.8

-1.2

-0.6

-0.7

0.8

0.1

1.5

-2.2

1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association

4. Construction investment

Construction investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the third quarter of 2016 rose 3.9 percent quarter-on-quarter and 11.9 percent year-on-year.

November 2016

13


Construction investment

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

20 (%) 15

10

5

0

-5

-10

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Construction investment (q-o-q)

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

Construction investment (y-o-y)

Construction investment by type Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50 (y-o-y, %) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Residential buildings

Building construction

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

Civil engineering works

(Percentage change from previous period)

2014 Construction investment² (y-o-y)

Annual

Annual¹

1.1

3.9

Q1¹ 5.5

2015 Q2¹ 1.8

Q3¹ 3.3

Q4¹ -2.4

Q1¹ 6.8

2016 Q2¹ 3.1

Q3¹ 3.9

-

-

0.9

1.0

5.6

7.5

9.6

10.8

11.9

- Building construction

6.3

6.3

2.5

4.9

5.6

0.3

3.6

5.5

-

- Civil engineering works

-7.3

-7.3

11.4

-3.8

-1.4

-8.0

14.0

-1.9

-

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea

The value of construction completed (constant) in September fell 4.7 percent month-on-month as both civil engineering works and building construction decreased. The index rose 9.4 percent year-on-year.

14

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


(Percentage change from previous period)

2.3

Q1 4.1

2015 Q2 -2.1

Q3 6.4

Q4 0.0

Q1 9.4

Q2 2.3

2016 Q31 4.6

Aug1 3.2

Sep1 -4.7

-

-2.0

-3.9

5.9

8.0

14.8

19.2

17.2

23.5

9.4

7.8

6.0

4.4

-0.7

9.5

2.6

9.0

3.1

6.5

4.6

-3.7

-12.3

-3.8

3.7

-4.4

0.9

-5.0

10.2

0.7

0.6

0.3

-6.8

2014 Construction completed (constant)

Annual

Annual

-0.7 -

(y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works 1. Preliminary

Source: Statistics Korea

Construction investment outlooks are mixed: Increases in apartment presales and domestic shipments of intermediate goods are expected to boost construction completed, but weak construction orders received and building permits may hamper construction investment in the future. Apartment presales (thousands, Real Estate 114) 38 (Mar 2016) → 35 (Apr) → 54 (May) → 41 (Jun) → 48 (Jul) → 30 (Aug) → 18 (Sep) → 76 (Oct) Domestic shipments of cement (million tons) 5.50 (Mar 2016) → 5.00 (Apr) → 5.10 (May) → 4.85 (Jun) → 4.50 (Jul) → 4.32 (Aug) → 4.50 (Sep) → 4.95 (Oct)

Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 300 (y-o-y, %) 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Construction orders

2016.1

Building permit area

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

Q1

2015 Q2

Q3

2014 Annual Annual

Construction orders (current value)

Q4

Q1

Q2

2016 Q31

Aug1

Sep1

16.3

48.2

57.4

49.1

50.4

40.1

13.8

-6.3

3.6

55.9

-38.6

-

-

47.4

11.6

21.3

-26.5

17.7

-10.2

37.5

9.5

-31.1

- Building construction

24.5

50.1

89.5

49.3

42.5

37.8

13.1

2.6

4.3

32.3

-27.8

- Civil engineering works

-4.4

42.9

1.7

48.3

83.6

45.9

16.0

-32.8

1.4

201.0

-63.8

-24.8

-9.5

-35.1

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

Building permits² 1. Preliminary

2. Floor area

11.2

34.3

11.0

25.1

57.0

40.4

19.7

5.3

Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

November 2016

15


5. Exports and imports

Exports (preliminary) decreased 3.2 percent year-on-year to US $41.95 billion in October. Exports fell at a slower pace in October due to strong vessels. By item, shipments of vessels and semiconductors rose, while automobiles and mobile phones remained weak. By region, shipments to the Middle East and the EU increased, while exports to Latin America and China declined. Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 49.4 (vessels), 1.7 (semiconductors), -0.1 (petrochemicals), -0.7 (steel), -4.5 (petroleum products), -11.8 (automobiles), -28.1 (mobile phones) Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 10.0 (Middle East), 3.8 (EU), 2.5 (ASEAN countries), -1.7 (Japan), -10.3 (US), -10.7 (Latin America), -11.3 (China)

Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, decreased month-on-month to US $1.86 billion. Average daily exports (US $ billion) 1.80 (Feb 2016) → 1.79 (Mar) → 1.83 (Apr) → 1.85 (May) → 1.97 (Jun) → 1.74 (Jul) → 1.67 (Aug) → 1.95 (Sep) → 1.86 (Oct)

Exports by item

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

160 (y-o-y, %) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80

2006.1

Exports

16

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Semiconductors

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

2012.1

2013.1

Automobiles

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Steel


(US $ billion)

2014 Exports

2015 Q1

Annual

Annual

572.66

526.76 133.40

(y-o-y, %) Average daily exports

2016

Q2

Q3

Q4

Oct

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct1

135.10

128.24

130.02

43.35

115.20

126.04

121.89

40.85

41.95

2.3

-8.0

-3.0

-7.3

-9.5

-12.0

-16.0

-13.6

-6.7

-5.0

-5.9

-3.2

2.11

1.93

2.01

1.99

1.87

1.86

1.88

1.73

1.88

1.78

1.95

1.86

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

Imports (preliminary) in October fell 5.4 percent year-on-year to US $34.79 billion. Commodities and capital goods imports decreased at a faster rate, and consumer goods imports increased at a slower rate. Import growth by category (y-o-y, %, Sep → Oct) -0.8 → -6.3 (commodities), -4.8 → -7.0 (capital goods), 2.5 → 1.2 (consumer goods)

Imports by category

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

100 (y-o-y, %) 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Imports

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Capital goods

Commodities

(US $ billion)

2014 Imports (y-o-y, %) Average daily imports

2015

2016

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Oct

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct1

525.51

436.50

111.77

110.50

107.96

106.27

36.76

93.78

99.16

102.35

33.95

34.79

1.9

-16.9

-15.6

-15.6

-18.7

-17.8

-16.6

-16.1

-10.3

-5.2

-1.7

-5.4

1.94

1.60

1.68

1.62

1.58

1.52

1.60

1.41

1.48

1.49

1.62

1.55

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

November 2016

17


The trade balance (preliminary) posted a surplus of US $7.16 billion in October, staying in the black for the 57th consecutive month. Surpluses increased compared with the previous month. (US $ billion)

2014

2015

2016

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Oct

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct1

47.15

90.26

21.63

24.61

20.28

23.74

6.59

21.42

26.93

19.53

6.90

7.16

Trade balance

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

Exports and imports

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

60 (US $ billion) 50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Trade balance

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Exports

Imports

6. Mining and manufacturing production

Mining and manufacturing production rose 0.3 percent month-on-month in September, due to robustness in automobiles and electronic parts, despite sluggishness in semiconductors and other transportation equipment. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index fell 2.0 percent. Compared to the previous month, production of automobiles (up 5.7%), electronic parts (up 4.6%) and mechanical equipment (up 4.6%) rose, while semiconductors (down 6.2%), other transportation equipment (down 4.2%) and chemical products (down 1.4%) fell.

18

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Compared to a year ago, production of semiconductors (up 2.8%), primary metals (up 2.7%) and refined petroleum (up 4.1%) rose, while automobiles (down 14.3%), communications equipment (down 21.1%) and audiovisual equipment (down 28.8%) declined.

Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50 (%) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Industrial production (m-o-m)

2016.1

Industrial production (y-o-y)

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

-

2015 Q3 1.7

Sep 0.9

Q2 1.0

Q3ยน 0.6

2016 Jul 1.3

-0.6

-0.1

3.0

1.0

0.6

-

1.7

0.9

1.1

0.4

(y-o-y)

-0.6

-0.3

3.1

1.1

Shipment

-0.2

2.1

1.7

- Domestic consumption

0.4

1.5

0.8

- Exports

-1.0

2.7

3.0

3.5

-0.1

0.1

-3.0

0.4

Inventory 3

2.9

2.6

1.6

-2.6

-3.6

-0.5

-1.7

-1.5

Average operation ratio (%)

74.3

74.9

74.9

72.2

71.8

73.8

70.2

71.4

Production capacity (y-o-y)

1.2

0.9

1.0

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.2

Annual

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

Mining and manufacturing2 (y-o-y)

Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)

Manufacturing

1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing and electricity & gas industry Source: Statistics Korea

Augยน -2.4

Sepยน 0.3

1.6

2.2

-2.0

1.2

-2.6

0.4

0.6

1.7

2.1

-2.2

2.1

-0.2

0.2

-2.2

0.9

0.9

-0.2

0.4

-1.6

1.4

3. End-period 

The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell 3.0 percentage points month-on-month to 117.7 percent as inventories fell 1.5 percent and shipments rose 0.9 percent. Inventories of primary metals (up 3.4%), electrical equipment (up 5.0%) and groceries (up 3.8%) rose, while semiconductors (down 24.9%), chemical products (down 2.2%) and mechanical equipment (down 2.0%) declined.

November 2016

19


Shipments of automobiles (up 6.2%), electronic parts (up 5.1%) and mechanical equipment (up 5.0%) rose, while semiconductors (down 2.4%), other transportation equipment (down 4.9%) and primary metals (down 1.7%) fell.

Shipment and inventory

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

10 8

(m-o-m, %)

6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Shipment growth

2016.1

Inventory growth

The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector rose 1.2 percentage points month-on-month to 71.4 percent.

Average manufacturing operation ratio

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

100 (%)

90

80

70

60

50

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Mining and manufacturing production for October is likely to be supported by the end of autoworker strikes. However, the index may be hampered by weak exports and the production halt of Galaxy Note 7 smart phones.

20

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


7. Service sector activity

Service output in September decreased 0.6 percent month-on-month and increased 2.8 percent yearon-year. Month-on-month, publishing & communications services (up 1.8%) and financial & insurance services (up 0.1%) increased, while transportation services (down 3.1%), wholesale & retail (down 1.8%) and real estate & renting (down 1.5%) decreased.

Service sector activity

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

15 (%)

10

5

0

-5

-10

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Service sector activity (m-o-m)

2015.1

2016.1

Service sector activity (y-o-y)

(Percentage change from previous period)

Weight Service activity index - Wholesale & retail

2013

2014

2015 Q2 0.5 0.5

Q3 1.2

Q4 1.2

Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1

100.0

1.5

2.3

0.8

2.8

2016 Q31 Aug1 Sep1 0.9 0.8 -0.6

21.6

0.1

0.4

-0.4

1.7

0.7

0.3

0.9

2.2 -0.6

- Transportation services

8.5

1.0

1.7

1.8

1.4

-0.2

-2.6

1.9

1.9

0.8 -1.0 -3.1

- Hotels & restaurants

7.2

0.5

1.5

-1.7

-2.0

-0.6

-3.4

2.1

0.8

1.1 -0.1 -1.4

- Publishing & communications services

8.4

2.2

2.0

-0.4

-0.6

-1.9

-0.5

3.0

1.1 -1.7

- Financial & insurance services

0.7 -1.8

1.8

1.8 0.1

14.7

0.5

5.2

3.3

9.0

1.6

3.8

1.2 -0.4

2.9 -0.1

- Real estate & renting

5.3

2.5

6.2

4.3

8.1

-0.8

6.4

0.9 -0.5

6.2

2.3 -1.5

- Professional, scientific & technical services

5.6

3.3

2.3

2.9

-0.4

-2.9

-0.1

1.6

0.3

1.2

5.3 -1.7

- Business services

3.3

2.1

2.5

0.8

3.9

2.3

0.4 -1.0

3.4

1.0 -1.4

- Education services

10.9

0.8

1.3

-0.4

0.9

1.0

-0.6

0.0

1.0 -0.2

0.7

0.0 4.9

1.1

- Healthcare & social welfare services

7.5

5.2

6.3

2.2

6.2

1.9

0.0

1.4

3.1 -0.2

1.4

- Entertainment, cultural & sports services

2.9

-0.7

-1.0

-2.3

1.1

1.5

-2.5

1.0

3.2

2.4

0.3 -1.8

- Membership organizations & personal services

3.6

6.1

-0.5

-1.9

-0.5

0.7

1.6 -0.2 -2.7 -3.8

1.0 -2.1

- Sewerage & waste management

0.6

-0.4

1.0

3.6

7.2

0.6

3.6

1.9 -2.6

4.6 -4.6

3.9

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

November 2016

21


Wholesale & retail

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

15 (%)

10

5

0

-5

-10

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Wholesale & retail (m-o-m)

2016.1

Wholesale & retail (y-o-y)

September 2016 service output by business

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

12 (y-o-y, %) 10

Financial & insurance services

8

Real estate & renting

6 4 2 0 -2

Entertainment, cultural & sports services Business services

Total index Wholesale & retail

Hotels & restaurants

Transportation services

Publishing & communications services

Professional, scientific & technical services

Education services

Membership organizations & personal services Health & social welfare services

Sewerage & waste management

-4

The service output in October is mixed as sales at department stores and large discount stores increased due to the Korea Sales Festa, a nationwide sales event, whereas average daily stock transactions decreased. Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 4.8 (Mar 2016) → 8.0 (Apr) → 1.5 (May) → 13.5 (Jun) → 11.2 (Jul) → 4.8 (Aug) → 4.2 (Sep) → 5.6 (Oct) Large discount store sales (y-o-y, %) -1.4 (Mar 2016) → 0.2 (Apr) → -5.5 (May) → 2.9 (Jun) → 5.8 (Jul) → 0.2 (Aug) → -0.4 (Sep) → 4.8 (Oct) Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 7.5 (Mar 2016) → 8.1 (Apr) → 8.5 (May) → 9.1 (Jun) → 8.3 (Jul) → 7.9 (Aug) → 8.1 (Sep) → 7.5 (Oct)

22

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


8. Employment

The number of workers on payroll in September increased by 267,000 from a year earlier to 26,530,000, and the employment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 66.4 percent. By industry, services continued to lead employment growth. By employment status, permanent workers continued to drive employment growth, self-employed workers increased for the second consecutive month, and temporary and daily workers decreased.

Number of persons employed and employment growth

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

1,000

27 (thousands)

(millions)

800

26

600 25 400 24 200 23 0 22

-200

-400

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Employment growth (y-o-y, left)

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

21

Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)

Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64 (%) 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55

2006.1

Original data

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

November 2016

23


Employment by industry

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

(%)

100

80

60

69.6 69.7 69.6 69.5 69.8 70.8 71.5 71.4 70.8 70.2 70.0 69.9 69.9 70.2 70.2 70.1 70.6 71.2 71.5 71.5 70.9 70.7 70.6 70.7 70.9 70.8 70.8

40 7.1

7.0

7.1

7.1

7.2

20

7.2

7.0

6.9

7.0

7.1

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.9

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.1

7.0

6.8

6.9

6.8

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.1

7.1

16.8 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.3 17.2 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.3 17.6 17.9 17.9 17.5 17.3 17.1 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.7 0

6.2

6.2

6.2

5.8

4.2

2014.7 8

9

10

11

12 2015.1 2

6.2

Services

3.9

4.1

4.9

5.5

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.1

4.0

3.8

4.8

5.2

5.4

5.5

5.3

5.3

5.4

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12 2016.1 2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Construction

Manufacturing

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

2015 Q2 Q3

2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual Q1

Number of employed (millions)

3.6

Q4

Sep

Q1

2016 Q3 Aug

Q2

Sep

24.68 25.07 25.60 25.94 25.27 26.10 26.24 26.14 26.26 25.55 26.39 26.55 26.53 26.53

Employment rate (%)

59.4 59.5 60.2 60.6 59.0 60.7 60.9 60.5 60.9 59.7 60.8 61.1 61.0 61.0

(Seasonally adjusted)

59.4 59.5 60.2 60.3 60.5 59.9 60.3 60.5 60.4 60.5 60.1 60.5 60.6 60.5

Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

437

386

533

337

354

308

310

376

347

287

289

318

387

267

(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)

451

394

601

444

441

435

419

482

467

341

375

399

454

332

14

79

146

156

139

147

164

176

166

126

38

-71

-74

-76

- Manufacturing - Construction

22

-19

42

27

72

44

11

-19

-1

-7

-28

38

71

41

- Services

416

318

424

250

222

235

234

309

292

216

360

430

457

369

- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

-14

-8

-87 -127 -115 -106 -120

-54

-86

-81

-67

-65

-68 -107

Source: Statistics Korea

Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100

80

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.7

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.4

3.9

(%) 3.7

3.8

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

22.1 22.4 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.0 20.8 20.9 20.9 21.3 21.2 21.3 21.2 21.2 21.5 21.4 6.0

60

5.0

5.8

6.1

6.2

6.4

6.2

6.0

6.0

5.7

6.2

6.5

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.9

5.7

5.5

5.3

5.5

5.4

5.7

5.8

5.5

5.5

19.8 19.3 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.6 19.4 20.1 19.7 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.2

40

20

0

46.8 47.0 47.1 47.2 47.3 48.5 49.0 49.0 48.5 48.1 47.8 47.9 48.0 48.5 48.6 48.7 48.7 49.7 50.4 50.6 49.9 49.4 49.1 48.9 48.8 48.9 49.2

2014.7 8

9

10

Unpaid family workers

24

11

12 2015.1 2

3

4

5

6

7

Self-employed workers

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

8

9

Daily workers

10

11

12 2016.1 2

3

Temporary workers

4

5

6

7

8

9

Permanent workers


2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual Q1

2015 Q2 Q3

Q4

Sep

Q1

Q2

2016 Q3 Aug

Sep

Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

437

386

533

337

354

308

310

376

347

287

289

318

387

267

- Wage workers

315

483

548

487

442

422

521

565

550

427

392

283

315

178

路 Permanent workers

436

615

443

432

355

332

505

536

545

505

457

316

291

293

路 Temporary workers

-2

-96

140

54

82

3

1

129

32

15

120

45

91

-26

-120

-37

-35

1

4

87

15 -100

-27

-93 -185

-78

-67

-89

121

-97

-15

-151

-88 -114 -211 -189 -203 -140 -103

35

72

89

124

-67

1

-89

-49

-37 -136 -135 -149

-96

-68

52

79

86

- Male

234

186

266

132

141

145

111

132

118

107

124

183

209

177

- Female

203

200

267

205

213

163

199

244

229

180

165

134

178

90

- 15 to 29

-36

-50

77

68

32

90

50

100

91

40

82

62

56

41

- 30 to 39

-31

-21

-21

-38

-1

-56

-60

-36

-67

-21

-23

-53

-61

-42

路 Daily workers - Nonwage workers 路 Self-employed workers

- 40 to 49

11

22

38

-14

-47

-15

1

7

17

6

-41

-16

11

-51

- 50 to 59

270

254

239

149

177

138

145

135

134

84

82

90

124

99

- 60 or more

222

181

200

172

192

150

174

169

172

179

189

236

258

219

Source: Statistics Korea

The number of unemployed persons in September increased by 120,000 year-on-year to 986,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 3.6 percent. The unemployment rate rose in all age groups except in the group of those in their 40s. The economically inactive population in September decreased 18,000 from a year earlier to 15,970,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 63.3 percent. The number of those economically inactive due to education (down 142,000), childcare (down 57,000) and rest (down 65,000) decreased.

Unemployment rate

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

6 (%)

5

4

3

2

2006.1

Original data

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

November 2016

25


Labor force participation rate 65

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

(%)

64

63

62

61

60

59

58

57

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Original data

Seasonally adjusted rate

2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual

Number of unemployed (thousands)

Q1

820

807

937

-35

-13

137

40

58

-26 -9 3.2

-6 -7 3.1

49 80 3.5

24 16 3.6

(Seasonally adjusted)

3.2

3.1

3.5

- 15 to 29

7.5

8.0

9.0

- 30 to 39

3.0

3.0

- 40 to 49

2.0

- 50 to 59 - 60 or more

Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands) - Male - Female Unemployment rate (%)

Economically inactive population (millions)

2016.1

2015 Q2 Q3

976 1,089 1,042

Q4

Sep

Q1

929

845

65

45

-9

16

64

25 32 4.1

42 23 3.8

31 14 3.4

-3 -6 3.1

9 7 3.2

51 13 4.3

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.5

9.2

10.3

9.9

8.4

8.0

7.9

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.0

2.9

3.1

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.3

2.0

2.1

1.9

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

1.8

2.3

2.5

4.1

2.2

2.0

Q2

866 1,153 1,028

2016 Q3 Aug

Sep

985

996

986

-14

56

73

120

11 -24 3.8

37 19 3.6

53 20 3.6

55 65 3.6

3.8

3.7

3.8

3.8

4.0

11.3

10.3

9.3

9.3

9.4

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

2.1

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

1.9

2.1

2.6

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.1

1.8

4.2

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.3

16.08 16.22 15.98 16.11 16.47 15.84 15.92 16.19 15.99 16.57 15.97 15.93 15.94 15.97

Labor force participation rate (%)

61.3

61.5

62.4

62.6

61.5

63.2 63.0 62.5

62.9

61.7

63.2

63.4

63.3

63.3

(Seasonally adjusted)

61.3

61.5

62.4

62.6

62.8

62.3 62.5 62.6

62.6

62.8

62.4

62.9

63.1

63.0

Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)

128

141

-246

128

72

150

99

135

4

-81

-18

-115 -105

-63

-61

-57

35

-21

28

- Childcare

162

128

146

-2

1

-39

8

41

50

3

-63

-26

123

-3

-131

-45

-91

-41

-19

-29

4

32

- Education

-12

77

-81

-146

-87

-108

-89 -116 -100 -142

- Old age

148

54

93

109

68

95

103

171

107

161

109

113

111

140

- Rest

-53

-7

-92

141

154

151

123

136

134

97

141

-19

-83

-65

- Housework

-141 -213 -112 -118

Source: Statistics Korea

26

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

69


9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market

The KOSPI fell 1.7 percent from 2,043.63 points at the end of September to 2,008.19 points at the end of October, and the KOSDAQ was down 8.3 percent from 681.21 points to 624.68 points. The KOSPI rose in early October amid rising international oil prices. The index, however, fell later in the month as investors’ risk aversion increased due to growing concerns that the Fed could raise its key rate by the end of this year, and due to rising uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election.

Stock prices 2,200 (monthly average) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

KOSPI

KOSDAQ

(Closing rate)

Stock price index (points) Market capitalization (trillion won) Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)

Sep 2016

KOSPI Oct 2016

Change1

Sep 2016

KOSDAQ Oct 2016

2,043.63

2,008.19

-35.44 (-1.7%)

681.21

624.68

-56.53 (-8.3%)

1,301.8

1,279.8

-22.0 (-1.7%)

210.4

196.0

-14.4 (-6.8%)

4.55

4.48

-0.07 (-1.5%)

3.55

3.05

-0.50 (-14.1%)

34.47

35.02

+0.55 (+1.6%)

9.93

10.24

+0.31 (+3.1%)

Change1

1. Change from the end of the previous month in October 2016 Source: Korea Exchange

November 2016

27


9.2 Exchange rate

The dollar-won exchange rate rose 3.8 percent in October from 1,101.3 won to 1,144.5 won as expectations for a US rate hike increased due to improved US economic indicators, pushing up the value of the dollar. The 100 yen-won exchange rate stayed nearly unchanged in October to close the month at 1,092.2 won amid a strong dollar.

Foreign exchange rates

Source: Bank of Korea

1,800 (month-end, \) 1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Dollar-Won

2016.1

100 Yen-Won

(Closing rate)

2010 Dec

2011 Dec

2012 Dec

2013 Dec

2014 Dec

2015 Dec

Dollar-Won

1,134.8

1,151.8

1,070.6

1,055.4

1,099.3

1,172.5

100 Yen-Won

1,393.6

1,481.2

1,238.3

1,002.3

913.0

974.1

Sep

2016 Oct

Change1

1,101.3

1,144.5

-3.8

1,092.3

1,092.2

+0.0

1. Appreciation from the end of the previous month in October 2016 (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time. Source: Bank of Korea

9.3 Bond market

Treasury bond yields rose in October as global bond yields increased due to growing expectations for a US rate hike. 10-year Treasury bond yields rose 29 basis points from 1.398 percent to 1.688 percent in October.

28

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Interest rates

Source: Bank of Korea

10 (monthly average, yearly, %) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Overnight call rate (daily)

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

3-yr Treasury bond yield

2016.1

3-yr corporate bond yield

(Closing rate, %)

Call rate (1 day)

2010 Dec 2.51

2011 Dec 3.29

2012 Dec 2.77

2013 Dec 2.52

2014 Dec 2.03

2015 Dec 1.52

Aug 1.24

Sep 1.25

2016 Oct 1.28

CD (91 days)

2.80

3.55

2.89

2.66

2.13

1.67

1.34

1.34

1.39

+5

Treasury bonds (3 yrs)

3.38

3.34

2.82

2.86

2.10

1.66

1.31

1.25

1.44

+19

Corporate bonds (3 yrs)

4.27

4.21

3.29

3.29

2.43

2.11

1.69

1.67

1.85

+18

Treasury bonds (5 yrs)

4.08

3.46

2.97

3.23

2.28

1.81

1.35

1.25

1.50

+25

Change1 +3

1. Basis points, changes from the previous month in October 2016 Source: Bank of Korea

9.4 Money supply and money market

M2 (monthly average) in August increased 7.2 percent from a year earlier after rising 6.9 percent in the previous month. Money supply in the overseas sector increased at a slower pace as the current account surplus fell. Money supply in the public sector expanded at a faster pace due to government borrowing. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

M1²

11.8

6.6

3.8

9.5

10.9

M2

8.7

4.2

5.2

4.8

6.6

LfÂł

8.2

5.3

7.8

6.9

7.0

2016

18.6

Jun 15.9

Jul 13.8

Aug 13.0

Aug1 743.0

8.6

7.1

6.9

7.2

2,377.0

9.7

7.9

7.6

8.0

3,275.2

1. Balance at end August 2016, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) Source: Bank of Korea

November 2016

29


Total money supply Source: Bank of Korea 40 (y-o-y, monthly average balance, %) 30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Reserve money

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

M1

Lf

Bank deposits expanded 6.3 trillion won month-on-month in September backed by increases in time deposits (up 5.2 trillion won) and bank bonds (up 5.4 trillion won). Asset management company (AMC) deposits decreased 11.2 trillion won month-on-month, a faster pace than the previous month. Money market funds (MMFs) fell at a faster pace, as some financial institutions withdrew funds to improve their financial ratios at the end of the third quarter and the government withdrew its surplus funds.

Deposits in financial institutions

Source: Bank of Korea

60 (m-o-m, end of month balance, trillion won) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

(Change from the end of the previous period, trillion won)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Bank deposits

36.9

58.9

37.0

41.0

115.4

100.3

Jun 14.3

AMC deposits

-16.7

-16.6

18.8

17.7

42.4

44.4

-4.6

1. Balance at end September 2016 Source: Bank of Korea

30

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Jul -1.8

2016 Aug 12.8

Sep 6.3

Sep1 1,436.8

23.3

-1.4

-11.2

473.3


10. Balance of payments

Korea’s current account (preliminary) in September posted a surplus of US $8.26 billion, staying in the black for 55 consecutive months. The goods account surplus increased month-on-month from US $7.05 billion to US $10.76 billion. Growth in goods exports (y-o-y, %) -3.7 (Aug 2016) → -2.4 (Sep) Growth in goods imports (y-o-y, %) 0.5 (Aug 2016) → 0.1 (Sep) Export growth by item in September (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) -5.9 (total), -14.0 (vessels), -4.1 (steel), -2.6 (semiconductors), -27.9 (mobile phones), -24.0 (automobiles), -13.0 (petroleum products) Import growth by category in September (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) -1.7 (total), -0.8 (commodities), -4.8 (capital goods), 2.5 (consumer goods)

The services account deficit expanded month-on-month from US $1.45 billion to US $2.54 billion, as the transportation account shifted to a deficit and the intellectual property rights account deficit rose. Services account (US $ billion, Aug → Sep) -0.14 → -0.39 (intellectual property rights), 0.03 → -0.24 (transportation), -1.28 → -1.09 (travel), -0.44 → -1.05 (other businesses), 0.77 → 0.65 (construction), -0.44 → -0.48 (manufacturing)

Travel balance

Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

4 (US $ billion) 3

2

1

-1

-2

-3

2006.1

2007.1

Travel balance

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Travel revenue

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Travel payment

November 2016

31


The primary income account surplus increased from US $0.61 billion to US $0.83 billion as the dividend income account surplus expanded. The secondary income account deficit fell from US $0.94 billion to US $0.79 billion. (US $ billion)

Annual

Annual1

2016 Q31

Aug1

Sep1

Current account

84.37

105.87 22.44 27.92 29.11 26.41 10.85 24.08 25.79 22.21

5.28

8.26

- Goods balance

88.89

120.29 24.22 33.68 30.64 31.76 11.91 27.88 33.01 28.59

7.05 10.76

- Services balance

-3.68

-15.71

-4.39

-3.09

-3.56

-4.67 -1.29

-4.17

-4.13 -5.51

-1.45

-2.54

- Primary income balance

4.15

5.90

3.83

-1.56

2.73

0.90

5.00

1.25

-1.90

1.50

0.61

0.83

- Secondary income balance

-4.98

-4.61

-1.22

-1.11

-0.70

-1.58 -3.03

-0.88

-1.18 -2.36

-0.94

-0.79

2014 Q11

2015 Q21 Q31

Q41

Sep1

Q11

Q21

1. Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

Current account balance

Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

15 (US $ billion)

10

5

0

-5

2006.1

2007.1

Goods account

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Services account

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Current account

The capital and financial account (preliminary) in September saw an outflow of US $10.65 billion. Capital & financial account balance* (US $ billion) 10.54 (Sep 2015) → 12.24 (Mar 2016) → 0.17 (Apr) → 8.93 (May) → 9.60 (Jun) → 9.39 (Jul) → 7.70 (Aug) → 10.65 (Sep) * Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows.

Net outflows of FDI increased from US $0.51 billion a month earlier to US $1.03 billion as inbound FDI (up US $1.66 billion → up US $0.60 billion) rose at a slower pace than Korean FDI (up US $2.16 billion → up US $1.63 billion). Net outflows of portfolio investment rose from US $6.75 billion to US $8.92 billion, as foreign investment in Korean shares decreased (up US $1.62 billion → down US $1.94 billion). Korean investment in foreign shares grew at a slower pace (up US $8.37 billion → up US $6.98 billion).

32

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Net inflows of financial derivatives investment were up from US $1.18 billion to US $1.96 billion. Other investment reversed from a net inflow of US $1.46 billion to a net outflow of US $0.76 billion. The current account surplus in October is expected to stay at a similar level to the previous month as net exports remained nearly unchanged at US $7.16 billion.

Capital & financial account balance

Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

15 (US $ billion) 10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Direct investment

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Portfolio investment

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Financial derivatives

2016.1

Capital & financial account

11. Prices

11.1 Consumer prices

Consumer prices in October rose 1.3 percent year-on-year and 0.1 percent month-on-month.

Consumer price inflation

(%)

2015

2016

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Year-on-Year

1.0

1.3

0.8

1.3

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.4

1.2

1.3

Month-on-Month

-0.1

0.3

0.0

0.8

-0.3

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

-0.1

0.6

0.1

Source: Statistics Korea

November 2016

33


Consumer price inflation 7

Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)

(%)

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)

2016.1

Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)

Agricultural product prices increased at a slower pace than the previous month (up 10.2% → up 8.1%, y-o-y) as vegetable production increased due to good weather conditions. Public utility rates fell at a slower pace (down 13.9% → down 8.2%, y-o-y) as electricity rates that were temporarily lowered during the summer returned to normal levels at the end of September. Oil product prices fell at a slower pace (down 7.0% → down 5.7%, y-o-y) as international oil prices rose.

Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total

Agricultural, livestock & fishery products

Sep (y-o-y, %)

1.2

10.2

0.0

Oct (y-o-y, %)

1.3

8.1

0.3

-

0.60

0.10

- Contribution (%p)

Manufactured Oil products products

Public utilities

Housing rents

Public services

Personal services

-7.0

-13.9

2.4

0.9

2.2

-5.7

-8.2

2.4

0.8

2.0

-0.23

-0.39

0.23

0.12

0.65

Source: Statistics Korea

Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products rose 1.5 percent year-on-year, a faster pace than the previous month. Consumer prices excluding food and energy were up 1.6 percent after rising 1.8 percent in the previous month. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2016 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.1

1.3

1.5

Consumer prices excluding food and energy

1.9

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.6

Source: Statistics Korea

34

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Consumer prices for basic necessities rose year-on-year at a faster pace than the previous month (up 0.6% → up 1.0%) as electricity rates that were temporarily lowered during the summer returned to normal levels. Fresh food prices rose 15.4 percent, a slower pace than the 20.5 percent of the previous month, due to falling agricultural product prices. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2016 May Jun

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Consumer prices for basic necessities

0.2

0.9

0.4

0.5

0.1

Fresh food prices

4.2

9.7

9.7

9.6

3.5

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

0.1

0.0

-0.6

0.6

1.0

-1.7

-0.4

2.8

20.5

15.4

Source: Statistics Korea

Prices 16

Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)

(y-o-y, %)

12

8

4

0

-4

-8

2006.1

2007.1

Consumer price inflation

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Core inflation

2016.1

Producer price inflation

11.2 International oil and commodity prices

International oil prices rose in October due to growing expectations that OPEC member countries would agree to cut production at the November 30 meeting and as US oil inventories fell, easing concerns about a supply glut. Dubai crude (US $/barrel) 48.7 (1st week Oct) → 49.6 (2nd week) → 49.3 (3rd week) → 48.6 (4th week)

November 2016

35


International oil prices

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

160 (US $/B) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Dubai crude

WTI

(US $/barrel, period average)

2014

2016

2015

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Dubai crude

96.6

50.7

51.9

60.5

49.9

40.8

30.5

43.2

46.3

42.5

43.6

43.3

49.0

Brent crude

99.4

53.6

55.1

63.5

51.3

44.7

35.2

47.0

49.9

46.5

47.2

47.2

51.4

WTI crude

92.9

48.8

48.6

58.0

46.5

42.2

33.7

45.6

48.9

44.8

44.8

45.2

49.9

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

Domestic gasoline prices increased in October as rising international oil prices in September were reflected with a time lag. Domestic gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,406.7 (1st week Oct) → 1,410.9 (2nd week) → 1,418.6 (3rd week) → 1,425.2 (4th week) International gasoline prices (US $/barrel) 55.6 (3rd week Sep) → 56.0 (4th week) → 58.8 (1st week Oct) → 60.0 (2nd week) Dollar-won exchange rate (won) 1,113.8 (3rd week Sep) → 1,100.7 (4th week) → 1,105.3 (1st week Oct) → 1,119.1 (2nd week) (Won/liter, period average)

2014

2016

2015

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Gasoline prices

1,827

1,510

1,485

1,543

1,544

1,468

1,363

1,396

1,438

1,437

1,412

1,408

1,417

Diesel prices

1,638

1,300

1,313

1,344

1,309

1,233

1,121

1,168

1,225

1,228

1,207

1,203

1,211

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

36

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160

160 (thousand won/B)

(US $/B)

140

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20 2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)

2015.1

20

2016.1

Dubai international prices (dollar, right)

International corn prices in October rose as more investors expected demand for corn to grow due to an increase in demand for ethanol, an alternative fuel produced from corn, following an increase in international oil prices. International wheat prices were up as the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on October 13 revised down its forecast for global wheat stocks in 2016-17 from 249 million tons to 248 million tons. International grain price increases in October (monthly average, m-o-m, %) 4.8 (corn), 1.6 (wheat), 1.6 (soybean), 7.6 (raw sugar)

International copper prices rose as Anglo American, a major copper producer, announced on October 25 that copper production fell 9.0 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2016. International aluminum prices rose as Rusal, a leading aluminum producer, estimated on October 13 that aluminum production costs for Chinese producers had surged this year as coal prices had risen 60.0 percent and energy costs represent 50.0 percent of their total production costs. Nonferrous metal price increases in October (monthly average, m-o-m, %) 0.5 (copper), 4.7 (aluminum), 0.8 (nickel), 0.9 (zinc), 5.0 (lead), 3.0 (tin)

(Period average)

2014 Annual Annual 1

Reuters Index (Sep 18,1931=100)

2016

2015 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

2,523 2,328 2,368 2,394 2,287 2,269 2,115 2,250 2,361 2,374 2,444 2,423 2,493

1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS

November 2016

37


International commodity prices

Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * C RB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 470

4000

430 390

3000

350 310

2000

270 230

1000

190 150

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

CRB (left)

0

2016.1

Reuters Index (right)

12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market

Housing prices nationwide rose 0.17 percent month-on-month in October.

Housing sales prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2015

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Sep

2016 Oct Annual Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nationwide

1.9

6.9

0.0

0.3

1.7

3.5

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.04

0.07

0.08

0.17

Seoul metropolitan area

-1.7

0.5

-3.0

-1.1

1.5

4.4

0.4

0.4

1.0

0.14

0.16

0.15

0.26

Seoul

-1.2

0.3

-2.9

-1.4

1.1

4.6

0.4

0.5

1.7

0.23

0.26

0.26

0.43

Gangnamš

-1.0

0.3

-3.5

-1.1

1.2

5.2

0.5

0.5

2.1

0.29

0.30

0.33

0.56

Gangbuk²

-1.4

0.3

-2.3

-1.7

1.1

3.9

0.4

0.5

1.3

0.17

0.21

0.19

0.30

Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

6.4

15.1

3.1

1.7

1.9

2.7

0.3

0.2

0.0

-0.04 -0.01

0.02

0.08

1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

38

2. Northern Seoul

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Housing sales prices Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3 (m-o-m, %)

2

1

0

-1

2009.1

7

2010.1

7

2011.1

7

Nationwide

2012.1

7

2013.1

7

2014.1

7

2015.1

Seoul metropolitan area

7

2016.1

7

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Housing prices rose 0.26 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, which includes Seoul (up 0.4%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.2%) and Incheon (up 0.1%). Housing prices rose 0.08 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, which include the five metropolitan cities (up 0.2%) and the eight provinces (up 0.0%). Housing price increases in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.6), Daegu (-0.1), Gwangju (0.1), Daejeon (0.1), Ulsan (0.1)

Housing rental prices nationwide rose 0.1 percent month-on-month in October. Rental prices increased 0.2 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and 0.1 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Housing rental price increases in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangman (0.1), Songpa (0.1), Gangdong (-0.1), Mapo (0.4), Yangcheon (0.4)

Housing rental prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2015

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Sep

2016 Oct Annual Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nationwide

7.1

12.3

3.5

4.7

3.4

4.8

0.4

0.4

1.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Seoul metropolitan area

6.3

11.0

2.1

6.2

4.7

7.1

0.6

0.6

1.7

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

Seoul

6.4

10.8

2.1

6.6

3.6

7.2

0.7

0.6

1.6

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

Gangnamš

7.6

11.1

2.4

6.7

3.3

7.9

0.7

0.5

1.5

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

Gangbuk²

5.1

10.6

1.8

6.4

3.8

6.5

0.7

0.8

1.8

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

9.2

14.5

4.6

3.3

2.2

2.8

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

2. Northern Seoul

November 2016

39


Housing rental prices Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3 (m-o-m, %) 2

1

0

-1

-2

2009.1

7

2010.1

7

2001.1

7

2012.1

Nationwide

7

2013.1

7

2014.1

7

2015.1

Seoul metropolitan area

7

2016.1

7

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

There were 91,612 housing transactions in September, down 6.6 percent from a month earlier (98,130) and up 6.3 percent from a year ago (86,152).

Housing sales transactions 2011

2012

2013

(Thousands)

2014

2016

2015

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1

Nationwide

82

1

61

1

71

1

84

1

99

86

106

98

88

62

59

78

86

89

93

2015.1

7

Jul Aug Sep 96

98

92

1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

Monthly housing transactions

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

160 (thousands) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009.1

7

Nationwide

40

2010.1

7

2011.1

7

2012.1

7

Seoul metropolitan area

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

2013.1

7

2014.1

7

2016.1

7

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area


12.2 Land market

Land prices nationwide rose 0.24 percent month-on-month in September. Land prices increased 0.24 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Seoul (up 0.27%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.21%). Land prices rose 0.24 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Busan (up 0.39%), Daegu (up 0.29%) and Jeju (up 0.44%). Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.14 (Feb 2016) → 0.18 (Mar) → 0.20 (Apr) → 0.21 (May) → 0.24 (Jun) → 0.25 (Jul) → 0.23 (Aug) → 0.24 (Sep) Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.22 (Feb 2016) → 0.27 (Mar) → 0.24 (Apr) → 0.24 (May) → 0.25 (Jun) → 0.24 (Jul) → 0.24 (Aug) → 0.24 (Sep)

Land prices Source: Korea Appraisal Board 15 12

(%)

9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

National average

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Metropolitan city

Land and consumer prices since 1970s

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

City

2015

County

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

60 (y-o-y, %) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20

1975

Land price inflation

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Consumer price inflation

November 2016

41


Land prices 2010

(Percentage change from previous period)

2011

2012

2013

2015

2014

2016 Q3

Jul

Aug

Sep

Nationwide

1.05

1.17

0.96

1.14

1.96

2.40

0.60

0.72

1.97

0.56

0.68

0.72

0.24

0.23

0.24

Seoul

0.53

0.97

0.38

1.21

2.66

2.69

0.69

0.72

2.18

0.57

0.76

0.83

0.28

0.27

0.27

Gyeonggi

1.49

1.47

1.04

0.91

1.24

1.73

0.43

0.52

1.59

0.37

0.58

0.64

0.22

0.21

0.21

Incheon

1.43

0.66

0.46

0.87

1.35

1.95

0.54

0.50

1.30

0.34

0.48

0.47

0.18

0.15

0.14

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

There were 240,000 land transactions in September, down 9.7 percent from the previous month and up 4.8 percent from a year ago (229,000). Land transactions nationwide decreased month-on-month, led by Seoul (down 18.2%), Incheon (down 13.3%), Ulsan (down 11.4%) and South Gyeongsang Province (down 14.5%). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 33.5 percent of total land transactions, recorded 80,000, down 12.7 percent month-on-month and 3.3 percent compared with a year ago (83,000).

Land transactions

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

500,000 (thousand m²) 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Seoul metropolitan area

2015.1

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Land transactions 2012

2013

(Land lots, thousands)

2014

2015

Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Sep

Nationwide 170

2016.1

2016

Oct

Nov Dec

Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

187

220

257

229

263

259

274

207

191

248

245

253

262

258

266

240

Seoul

13

17

22

30

27

31

29

28

21

20

26

28

31

34

37

38

31

Gyeonggi

33

37

46

58

58

63

61

62

48

44

56

57

59

65

69

70

64

Incheon

8

8

10

12

12

14

13

12

8

8

10

12

13

13

15

15

13

1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation

42

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

Industrial output in September decreased 0.8 percent month-on-month and increased 1.3 percent yearon-year. Output rose month-on-month in mining & manufacturing (up 0.3%), but fell in services (down 0.6%), construction (down 4.7%) and public administration (down 4.3%).

Index of all industry production

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

20 (%) 15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Index of all industry production (m-o-m)

2015.1

2016.1

Index of all industry production (y-o-y)

2016 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul1

Aug1

Sep1

0.7 2.5

0.7 2.4

-0.7 0.8

2.0 5.0

0.7 4.8

0.0 3.5

0.0 5.0

-0.8 1.3

Coincident composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)

119.4 0.1

119.5 0.1

119.8 0.3

120.4 0.5

121.0 0.5

121.8 0.7

122.4 0.5

122.4 0.0

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p)

100.2 -0.1

100.0 -0.2

100.0 0.0

100.3 0.3

100.5 0.2

100.9 0.4

101.2 0.3

100.9 -0.3

Leading composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)

123.5 0.1

123.9 0.3

124.5 0.5

124.9 0.3

125.3 0.3

125.8 0.4

126.5 0.6

127.3 0.6

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p)

100.3 -0.2

100.3 0.0

100.4 0.1

100.4 0.0

100.3 -0.1

100.4 0.1

100.7 0.3

100.9 0.2

Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)

1. Preliminary

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.3 points month-on-month to 100.9. Four components of the coincident composite index, including imports and domestic shipments, increased, while three others, including retail sales, the value of construction completed and mining & manufacturing production decreased.

November 2016

43


Components of the coincident composite index in September (m-o-m) imports (0.3%), domestic shipments (0.2%), service output (0.1%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.1%), retail sales (-1.7%), value of construction completed (-0.5%), mining & manufacturing production (-0.3%)

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

110 (points)

100

90 2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.2 points month-on-month to 100.9. Seven components of the leading composite index, including the value of construction orders received, the ratio of job openings to job seekers, the KOSPI and the inventory circulation indicator, were up, while spreads between long & short term interest rates were down. Components of the leading composite index in September (m-o-m) value of construction orders received (5.1%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (2.3%p), domestic shipments of machinery (1.6%), KOSPI (1.1%), inventory circulation indicator (1.1%p), consumer expectations index (1.0p), ratio of export to import prices (0.4%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.01%p)

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

110 (points)

100

90

44

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1


Policy Issue

Restructuring plans for shipbuilding and shipping industries Measures to curb housing market overheating

November 2016

45


Restructuring Plans for Shipbuilding and Shipping Industries

The government announced on October 31 its restructuring plans for the shipbuilding and shipping industries. The plans also include measures to help stimulate the ailing economies of shipbuilding towns.

Shipbuilding industry Korea’s shipbuilding industry, which has been one of the country’s major economic drivers for a few decades, is losing competitiveness in the global market due to oversupply as well as latecomers who are increasing their shares in the market. The government will help the industry regain strength, sticking firmly to the rule that companies take their shares of responsibility. Although the global shipbuilding market is forecast to begin recovering from 2018, the recovery will likely be so slow that orders will not rebound back to the 2011-2015 average in 2020. The government will work on transforming the shipbuilding industry into a more competitive and profitable one encompassing a wide range of services, in addition to vessel construction. The government will strongly support the restructuring as it will: - Make sure that companies’ financial conditions are sound enough to weather the sluggish market, as well as to grab opportunities when the market recovers, by helping implement self-rescue plans, such as reducing facilities and workforce, and selling noncore assets - Help avoid winning offshore plant projects at unreasonably low prices due to fierce competition, by requiring more accurate assessments of the projects - Place an order of more than 250 vessels by 2020, worth around 11 trillion won, to help the industry overcome a temporary order-cliff: The government will early order public vessels and utilize vessel funds. - Promote corporate restructuring with its focus on reinforcing the strengths of each company: For example, Daewoo Shipbuilding, which is under creditor management, will be restructured to reinforce commercial vessels, and then will be put up for sale in the mid- to long term. - Further develop the shipbuilding industry within the two frameworks of building high value-added vessels, such as eco-friendly or smart vessels, and expanding new services markets, such as vessel repair and renovation, and plant design

46

Policy Issue


Stimulate the ailing economies of shipbuilding towns In order to help local economies affected by the shipbuilding sector restructuring, the government will: - Inject 1.7 trillion won worth of emergency operation funds into local subcontractors by 2017, and offer 1 trillion won worth of public projects for the next five years - In the mid- to long term, work with the local governments to develop new economic drivers in the region and restructure the regional economy to be less dependent on the shipbuilding industry: Utilize policies regarding the Regulation Free Zone, and develop traditional industries and resources in the region - Introduce a total support package to provide the fastest aid to regions struck by the fall of their major industries: The support is provided after the regions are designated as Regions Dealing with Industrial Crisis.

A welder works on a ship at a dock in Geoje, South Gyeongsang Province on April 28. The government announced on October 31 its restructuring plans for the shipbuilding and shipping industries, which include measures to help stimulate the ailing economies of shipbuilding towns like Geoje.

Shipping industry The government will provide substantial aid to the shipping industry, with its focus on the three most important areas of vessels, shipments and workforce, to help the industry recover to the fifth strongest in the world. - Provide a total of 6.5 trillion won of financial support to help shipping companies acquire new vessels - Promote a cooperative partnership between shipping companies and shippers through which vessels are jointly ordered for the deliveries, thus contributing to keeping the level of shipments stable - Develop ports to be competitive enough to attract transshipments - Continue to work on utilizing the foreign networks and experts of Hanjin Shipping, which is put under court-led restructuring

November 2016

47


Measures to Curb Housing Market Overheating

The government has announced its measures to curb recent overheating in the housing market as some regions show signs of it, although nationwide the market has been stable. The measures focus on helping the market work for those wanting to buy homes for nonspeculative purposes, and will be limitedly imposed on areas showing signs of overheating, such as the entire cities of Seoul and Sejong, and parts of Gyeonggi Province and Busan. The measures will include: - Restricting the resale of presale apartment units - Requiring stricter standards to qualify as the new home buyer group which is given priorities over others for presale apartment units - Restricting the purchase of presale apartment units if the person wanting to buy one has ever purchased presale units before - Plans to root out illegal practices to curb speculative demand The government will complete the revision of related rules as fast as possible, and will closely monitor the market and strongly respond to any signs of overheating. Overheated areas will be designated as ‘Speculative Watch Areas’ if necessary.

An aerial view of an apartment complex in Gangnam, Seoul. The government's housing market measures, which were announced on November 3, will be limitedly imposed on areas showing signs of overheating, such as Seoul, Sejong and parts of Gyeonggi Province and Busan.

48

Policy Issue


Economic News Briefing

Korea ranks 5th in World Bank’s Doing Business report Government announces new fintech roadmap Korea-US envoy talks reaffirm need for stronger bilateral cooperation under new US administration 2nd Ministerial Meeting to Address Current Economic Issues held Korean FDI up 11.2% in Jan-Sep period Korea grows 0.7% in Q3 (advanced)


Korea ranks 5th in World Bank’s Doing Business Report Korea ranked fifth among 190 countries in the World Bank’s Doing Business 2017 report, down one notch compared to the previous year. Of the 10 sets of indicators to measure the ease of doing business, Korea’s ranking rose in four, remained unchanged in two, and fell in four. The areas where Korea showed improvement were “enforcing contracts” (2nd → 1st), “starting a business” (23rd → 11th), “paying taxes” (29th → 23rd) and “registering property” (40th → 39th). Korea’s ranking was unchanged in “getting electricity” (1st) and “resolving insolvency” (4th), and down in “protecting minority investors” (8th → 13th), “dealing with construction permits” (28th → 31st), “trading across borders” (31st → 32nd) and “getting credit” (42nd → 44th).

Government announces new fintech roadmap The government announced on October 24 a new roadmap for developing Korea’s fintech industry. The roadmap calls for making fundamental changes to existing financial regulations, promoting the development of blockchain technology and institutionalizing digital currencies, such as Bitcoin. Also, the government will expand investment in the fintech industry from 500 billion won this year to 3 trillion won over the next three years.

Korea-US envoy talks reaffirm need for stronger bilateral cooperation under new US administration Deputy Prime Minister Yoo Il Ho had talks with US envoys to Korea, Japan and China on November 8. Deputy Prime Minister Yoo said he expects the Korea-US partnership, as trusted allies and trade partners, to remain solid, and the US envoys agreed that the two countries need to further strengthen their ties after a new administration takes office in the US. The two parties also shared the importance of global policy cooperation, such as cooperation in fiscal policies, monetary policies and restructuring, to successfully deal with low growth in the global economy, and the ambassadors mentioned that Korea, Japan and China need to more closely cooperate given their influence on the global economy, in addition to the influence on the economies of Northeast Asia.

50

Economic News Briefing


2nd Ministerial Meeting to Address Current Economic Issues held The 2nd Ministerial Meeting to Address Current Economic Issues was held on November 10, where participants discussed the possible influence of changes in US policies on the economy. In order to swiftly and appropriately respond to any changes following the US presidential election, the government will run a system which covers financial markets, both domestic and global, foreign exchange markets and the country’s real economic affairs including trade. The government will closely examine the campaign pledges of the next US administration and their possible effects on the Korean economy. Korea will also pursue establishing mutually beneficial economic cooperation with the US on the basis of the long bilateral alliance between the two countries. The government will preemptively work to avoid volatility increasing in financial markets, as it will run a 24-hour monitoring system and implement market stabilization measures if necessary, strictly manage the level of foreign currency liquidity, and provide accurate information as soon as possible to foreign investors, credit rating agencies and the foreign press so that investor sentiment remains stable.

Korean FDI up 11.2% in Jan-Sep period Korean foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first three quarters of 2016 increased 11.2 percent compared to a year ago, from US $27.84 billion to US $30.96 billion. However, Korean FDI in the third quarter fell 10.5 percent year-on-year, from US $9.94 billion to US $8.89 billion, as offshore fund investments in finance and insurance plummeted amid continuing financial market uncertainties, and also due to a high base effect from the previous quarter. FDI rose in real estate & renting (up 20.0%), wholesale & retail (up 74.4%) and mining (up 154.6%), but fell in finance & insurance (down 33.0%). FDI in Europe (up 55.7%) surged, led by real estate & renting investment, while FDI in Asia (down 17.1%) and North America (down 14.0%) declined. (US $ billion)

2015

2016

Q1

Q2

Q3

Jan-Sep

Q1

Q2

Q3

Jan-Sep

Korean FDI

7.95

9.94

9.94

27.84

10.40

11.66

8.89

30.96

(y-o-y, %)

5.2

17.4

30.0

17.6

30.8

17.3

-10.5

11.2

November 2016

51


Korea grows 0.7% in Q3 (advanced) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter and 2.7 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2016, according to advanced data released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) on October 25. On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fisheries contracted 0.9 percent compared to the previous quarter. Manufacturing decreased 1.0 percent, led by transport equipment and electric & electronic equipment, while construction grew 4.4 percent, led by building construction. Services were up 1.0 percent, as gains in health & social welfare services and real estate & renting offset declines in cultural and other services. On the expenditure side, private consumption rose 0.5 percent, led by nondurable goods and services, while government expenditures was up 1.4 percent due to an increase in health insurance benefits. Facility investment contracted 0.1 percent, led by transportation equipment. Construction investment was up 3.9 percent, as investment in both residential and nonresidential building construction increased. Exports rose 0.8 percent, led by semiconductors and chemical products, while imports rose 2.4 percent, led by machinery equipment and overseas consumption by residents. GDP by production and expenditure*

(Percentage change from previous period) 1

2014 Q1

Q2

20161

2015 Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

1.1

0.6

0.7

0.3

0.8

0.4

1.2

0.7

0.5

0.8

0.7

(3.9)2

(3.5)2

(3.4)2

(2.7)2

(2.4)2

(2.2)2

(2.8)2

(3.1)2

(2.8)2

(3.3)2

(2.7)2

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

-1.6

-0.4

1.6

1.7

3.7

-11.0

4.7

-2.6

6.5

-6.6

-0.9

Manufacturing

1.8

1.0

-0.7

-0.2

0.4

0.9

0.4

0.7

-0.2

1.2

-1.0

Construction

1.9

0.1

-0.2

-2.1

1.8

-0.1

5.5

0.7

4.8

1.0

4.4

Services3

0.9

0.4

1.2

0.7

0.7

0.2

1.1

0.7

0.5

0.6

1.0

Private consumption

0.4

-0.3

0.7

0.3

0.8

-0.1

1.1

1.4

-0.2

1.0

0.5

Government expenditures

0.5

0.8

1.9

0.1

0.5

0.9

1.3

1.0

1.3

0.1

1.4

Facility investment

-1.1

1.3

0.3

3.5

0.5

0.8

1.8

0.5

-7.4

2.8

-0.1

Construction investment

3.3

1.1

-0.8

-4.9

5.5

1.8

3.3

-2.4

6.8

3.1

3.9

Intellectual property investment

2.0

0.0

0.0

-0.1

1.7

-0.6

0.3

0.7

0.3

1.5

0.4

Exports

0.8

1.1

-1.5

0.3

0.6

-0.1

-0.3

2.1

-1.1

1.1

0.8

Imports

-1.6

0.8

-0.1

0.4

0.9

0.4

1.4

3.2

-3.1

2.1

2.4

GDP

*At 2010 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year (original data) 3. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.

52

Economic News Briefing


Statistical Appendices

01. National accounts 02. Production, shipment and inventory 03. Production capacity and operation ratio 04. Consumer goods sales index 05. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 06. Machinery orders received and facility investment index 07. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 08. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 09. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates


1. National accounts Period

Agri., fores. & fisheries

Manufacturing

Final consumption expenditure

Gross fixed capital formation Construction

Facilities

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p

0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3 2.6

3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 3.1 3.6 -1.5

-0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.6 3.5 1.3

1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4

0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 3.3 3.4 3.8

3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 5.5 1.1 3.9

-7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -0.8 6.0 5.3

2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6

7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4

8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3

4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4

1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0

-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3

7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0

2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8

2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0

-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4

-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5

-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8

1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1

-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5

2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

7.3 7.4 5.4 6.0

0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7

16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9

6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4

12.0 6.8 3.8 1.3

1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.1

27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

4.9 3.6 3.3 3.0

-9.3 -2.5 -5.8 7.1

11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4

3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7

-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3

-8.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0

8.3 8.3 3.4 -0.9

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.5 2.4 2.1 2.2

0.1 -1.8 0.0 -1.3

2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0

2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7

6.2 -2.3 -0.9 -3.6

-0.2 -5.3 -2.6 -6.4

11.0 -1.9 -4.2 -3.8

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.1 2.7 3.2 3.5

-1.2 0.1 4.3 7.0

2.7 3.6 3.8 4.2

1.5 2.2 2.4 2.6

-3.2 4.2 4.9 6.5

1.2 8.9 7.5 3.5

-12.3 -3.2 2.3 11.7

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

3.9 3.5 3.4 2.7

5.9 4.5 2.7 2.4

4.7 4.7 3.1 1.8

2.9 1.8 2.0 1.6

6.1 3.6 3.6 0.8

4.5 0.3 2.3 -1.7

7.4 7.9 4.4 4.4

2015pⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.4 2.2 2.8 3.1

7.5 -4.0 -0.8 -5.0

0.6 0.5 1.5 2.4

1.9 2.1 2.4 3.4

2.6 2.2 5.1 5.4

0.9 1.0 5.6 7.5

5.8 5.1 6.7 3.9

2016pⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ

2.8 3.3 2.7

-2.4 1.5 -3.9

1.9 2.2 0.7

2.7 3.4 2.9

3.0 5.3 5.4

9.6 10.8 11.9

-4.5 -2.7 -4.5

p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

54

(year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)

Real GDP

Statistical Appendices


2. Production, shipment and inventory Period

Production index*

Shipment index*

y-o-y change (%)

Inventory index*

y-o-y change (%)

(constant prices, 2010=100)

Service production index

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2013 2014 2015

108.2 108.4 107.7

0.7 0.2 -0.6

108.1 108.0 107.8

0.8 -0.1 -0.2

130.7 127.4 131.2

4.4 -2.5 3.0

106.4 108.9 112.0

1.5 2.3 2.8

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.9 109.8 105.6 111.3

0.8 0.5 1.2 -1.5

106.6 109.3 104.9 111.3

0.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.8

129.6 128.2 129.0 127.4

5.3 7.6 3.6 -2.5

105.4 108.6 108.5 113.1

2.1 1.7 2.7 2.8

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

105.7 108.4 105.5 111.2

-1.1 -1.3 -0.1 -0.1

106.0 108.1 105.8 111.2

-0.6 -1.1 0.9 -0.1

132.2 134.0 137.7 131.2

2.0 4.5 6.7 3.0

108.2 111.5 111.6 116.8

2.7 2.7 2.9 3.3

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲp

105.5 109.5 106.1

-0.2 1.0 0.6

105.2 109.5 105.9

-0.8 1.3 0.1

136.1 131.1 127.3

3.0 -2.2 -7.6

111.2 115.6 115.6

2.8 3.7 3.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

106.5 101.2 113.0 112.3 108.5 108.6 112.5 101.2 103.2 110.1 108.7 115.0

-4.2 4.0 3.1 2.6 -1.9 0.7 4.2 -2.6 2.1 -2.8 -3.1 1.4

105.4 101.4 113.1 111.1 108.7 108.1 109.6 101.7 103.4 109.4 109.5 115.1

-4.2 3.3 2.6 1.6 -1.5 -0.5 2.3 -3.1 2.0 -2.8 -1.7 2.2

131.6 128.8 129.6 130.7 129.6 128.2 132.6 129.9 129.0 130.0 129.2 127.4

2.3 3.4 5.3 8.3 6.5 7.6 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.9 0.1 -2.5

104.8 101.9 109.6 107.1 109.0 109.8 108.9 108.1 108.5 110.8 109.9 118.7

2.3 1.4 2.7 1.4 1.2 2.6 3.1 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.3 3.5

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

108.1 96.0 113.1 109.8 105.2 110.3 108.7 101.4 106.3 112.4 108.5 112.6

1.5 -5.1 0.1 -2.2 -3.0 1.6 -3.4 0.2 3.0 2.1 -0.2 -2.1

108.1 96.6 113.2 109.6 105.4 109.2 107.5 102.1 107.7 112.6 108.4 112.7

2.6 -4.7 0.1 -1.4 -3.0 1.0 -1.9 0.4 4.2 2.9 -1.0 -2.1

131.3 131.9 132.2 133.7 133.0 134.0 137.1 136.8 137.7 136.1 136.2 131.2

-0.2 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.6 4.5 3.4 5.3 6.7 4.7 5.4 3.0

106.9 104.7 113.0 111.7 111.5 111.4 111.7 110.6 112.6 114.1 113.2 123.1

2.0 2.7 3.1 4.3 2.3 1.5 2.6 2.3 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.7

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8p 9p

105.7 98.2 112.5 107.1 110.1 111.3 110.4 103.6 104.2

-2.2 2.3 -0.5 -2.5 4.7 0.9 1.6 2.2 -2.0

103.9 97.5 114.2 108.0 109.5 111.0 108.5 104.1 105.0

-3.9 0.9 0.9 -1.5 3.9 1.6 0.9 2.0 -2.5

136.9 136.6 136.1 132.4 133.5 131.1 133.7 130.2 127.3

4.3 3.6 3.0 -1.0 0.4 -2.2 -2.5 -4.8 -7.6

110.1 107.6 115.8 113.9 115.6 117.4 115.3 115.9 115.7

3.0 2.8 2.5 2.0 3.7 5.4 3.2 4.8 2.8

* Including mining, manufacturing, electricity & gas and water industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

November 2016

55


3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period

Production capacity index* (2010=100) y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Average operation ratio* (%)

2013 2014 2015

108.6 110.4 111.7

1.6 1.7 1.2

95.1 94.3 92.1

-2.5 -0.8 -2.3

76.5 76.2 74.3

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

109.7 109.9 110.7 111.2

1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7

92.9 96.8 91.5 95.8

-0.9 -1.1 0.8 -2.5

77.2 76.3 75.9 75.2

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

111.5 111.6 111.7 112.0

1.6 1.5 0.9 0.7

90.0 94.9 89.8 93.8

-3.1 -2.0 -1.9 -2.1

74.3 74.3 74.9 73.6

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲp

112.0 112.0 112.2

0.4 0.4 0.4

88.6 92.1 86.9

-1.6 -3.0 -3.2

73.2 72.2 71.8

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

109.8 109.6 109.7 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.7 111.0 111.1 111.1 111.3

1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6

91.9 87.6 99.1 99.7 95.6 95.1 98.7 86.8 89.0 95.9 94.0 97.6

-7.1 3.2 2.0 1.8 -3.8 -1.2 4.3 -4.3 2.3 -3.8 -4.3 0.7

77.9 76.1 77.7 77.5 75.1 76.3 77.7 74.8 75.1 74.2 74.8 76.7

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

111.5 111.3 111.8 111.5 111.6 111.7 111.5 111.5 112.1 112.1 112.0 111.9

1.5 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5

92.8 81.0 96.3 95.8 91.8 97.1 94.7 86.0 88.8 95.4 91.8 94.2

1.0 -7.5 -2.8 -3.9 -4.0 2.1 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.5 -2.3 -3.5

73.9 74.7 74.2 74.4 73.5 75.0 74.4 75.4 74.9 74.0 73.1 73.8

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8p 9p

111.8 111.9 112.2 112.1 112.0 111.9 112.0 112.2 112.3

0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2

89.0 81.2 95.6 90.1 92.8 93.3 92.2 83.7 84.7

-4.1 0.2 -0.7 -5.9 1.1 -3.9 -2.6 -2.7 -4.6

72.3 73.5 73.8 71.3 73.1 72.2 73.8 70.2 71.4

* Manufacturing industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

56

Operation ratio index* (2010=100)

Statistical Appendices


4. Consumer goods sales index

(constant prices, 2010=100)

Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods

Period

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Nondurable goods

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2013 2014 2015

107.9 110.1 114.4

0.7 2.0 3.9

116.7 122.7 135.2

0.3 5.1 10.2

106.1 105.3 104.0

2.1 -0.8 -1.2

104.7 106.4 109.1

0.4 1.6 2.5

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.5 109.0 109.3 115.7

2.6 1.2 2.0 2.4

117.4 121.2 123.4 128.6

5.7 2.3 5.5 6.9

100.1 104.6 96.0 120.5

-2.0 -2.5 1.2 0.5

104.3 105.2 108.6 107.5

3.1 2.2 0.6 0.8

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

108.8 112.7 113.2 122.8

2.2 3.4 3.6 6.1

126.7 132.0 132.9 149.3

7.9 8.9 7.7 16.1

97.9 103.2 92.7 122.3

-2.2 -1.3 -3.4 1.5

105.1 107.7 112.9 110.7

0.8 2.4 4.0 3.0

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲp

113.8 119.7 117.3

4.6 6.2 3.6

133.8 146.7 134.7

5.6 11.1 1.4

100.5 107.9 96.1

2.7 4.6 3.7

110.2 112.2 118.4

4.9 4.2 4.9

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

110.5 99.4 109.7 106.1 112.5 108.4 110.6 107.7 109.7 111.7 114.7 120.6

5.6 -0.1 2.2 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 3.1 1.8 0.4 1.3 5.2

116.4 117.1 118.7 114.5 121.7 127.4 131.3 118.5 120.5 118.9 128.8 138.1

3.6 10.5 3.3 -0.7 1.6 5.9 2.9 1.9 12.6 -1.4 7.2 15.0

100.5 91.8 107.9 105.6 111.5 96.8 95.5 91.3 101.3 115.7 120.5 125.2

-2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -1.0 -2.0 -4.4 -2.6 5.4 1.2 1.6 -2.7 2.5

112.1 94.5 106.2 102.4 108.7 104.5 107.5 109.9 108.4 106.5 105.6 110.3

10.2 -4.8 3.6 2.1 3.0 1.5 1.8 2.9 -2.9 0.7 0.3 1.4

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

107.9 105.2 113.2 111.8 116.6 109.6 113.1 110.3 116.1 121.3 121.8 125.4

-2.4 5.8 3.2 5.4 3.6 1.1 2.3 2.4 5.8 8.6 6.2 4.0

128.2 117.3 134.6 129.2 130.3 136.4 140.2 129.2 129.4 143.2 146.8 158.0

10.1 0.2 13.4 12.8 7.1 7.1 6.8 9.0 7.4 20.4 14.0 14.4

97.6 91.5 104.6 107.1 114.3 88.3 92.0 88.1 98.0 122.2 124.5 120.3

-2.9 -0.3 -3.1 1.4 2.5 -8.8 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 5.6 3.3 -3.9

102.9 105.5 106.9 105.7 111.1 106.3 109.7 111.2 117.8 110.6 109.0 112.4

-8.2 11.6 0.7 3.2 2.2 1.7 2.0 1.2 8.7 3.8 3.2 1.9

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8p 9p

112.9 108.6 119.8 116.5 122.9 119.6 118.1 117.0 116.7

4.6 3.2 5.8 4.2 5.4 9.1 4.4 6.1 0.5

125.3 125.0 151.1 139.3 146.0 154.9 141.2 137.3 125.5

-2.3 6.6 12.3 7.8 12.0 13.6 0.7 6.3 -3.0

101.6 93.1 106.7 109.4 115.1 99.1 98.8 89.6 99.9

4.1 1.7 2.0 2.1 0.7 12.2 7.4 1.7 1.9

112.0 107.8 110.9 109.0 115.5 112.0 115.7 119.4 120.0

8.8 2.2 3.7 3.1 4.0 5.4 5.5 7.4 1.9

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

November 2016

57


5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index

Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods Nondurable goods y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)

Period 2013 2014 2015

102.2 102.0 104.4

-0.3 -0.2 2.4

103.4 102.7 106.0

0.6 -0.7 3.2

101.7 101.8 103.7

-0.7 0.1 1.9

-

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

100.8 100.8 102.5 104.0

-2.1 2.1 0.1 -0.7

103.5 103.0 100.8 103.3

-4.4 2.1 -1.8 1.5

99.7 99.9 103.2 104.4

-1.1 2.3 0.9 -1.4

-

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

101.4 100.5 105.4 110.1

0.6 -0.3 2.8 5.9

100.0 102.6 105.5 115.8

-3.4 -0.4 4.7 12.1

102.0 99.6 105.4 107.7

2.3 -0.3 2.1 3.2

-

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲp

104.5 104.8 104.3

3.1 4.3 -1.0

101.8 106.3 93.9

1.8 3.6 -11.0

105.7 104.2 108.7

3.6 4.6 3.1

-

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

102.5 96.5 103.4 101.8 99.9 100.7 105.0 100.2 102.3 105.2 101.0 105.9

-5.8 -0.4 0.1 2.3 0.2 3.9 1.5 -3.7 2.6 -3.3 -1.8 3.5

99.8 106.7 103.9 98.2 103.7 107.2 107.2 94.9 100.3 99.9 103.1 106.9

-9.5 0.3 -3.9 0.1 2.0 4.3 -1.7 -8.6 5.7 -4.3 0.0 9.3

103.6 92.2 103.2 103.4 98.3 98.0 104.0 102.4 103.1 107.5 100.1 105.5

-4.2 -0.8 1.9 3.4 -0.5 3.8 2.9 -1.7 1.4 -2.9 -2.6 1.2

109 108 108 108 104 107 105 106 107 105 103 101

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

104.5 94.1 105.5 105.1 98.0 98.5 103.2 103.1 109.9 112.9 106.8 110.6

2.0 -2.5 2.0 3.2 -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 2.9 7.4 7.3 5.7 4.4

101.4 92.8 105.7 107.1 98.2 102.5 107.0 103.6 105.8 115.6 114.6 117.1

1.6 -13.0 1.7 9.1 -5.3 -4.4 -0.2 9.2 5.5 15.7 11.2 9.5

105.8 94.7 105.4 104.2 98.0 96.7 101.6 102.9 111.6 111.8 103.4 107.8

2.1 2.7 2.1 0.8 -0.3 -1.3 -2.3 0.5 8.2 4.0 3.3 2.2

102 103 101 104 105 98 100 101 103 105 105 102

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8pp 9p 10

106.2 95.0 112.4 106.3 103.6 104.5 102.1 104.7 106.0 -

1.6 1.0 6.5 1.1 5.7 6.1 -1.1 1.6 -3.5 -

96.8 92.8 115.8 106.7 102.2 110.0 92.9 90.3 98.5 -

-4.5 0.0 9.6 -0.4 4.1 7.3 -13.2 -12.8 -6.9 -

110.3 95.9 110.9 106.1 104.2 102.2 106.1 110.9 109.2 -

4.3 1.3 5.2 1.8 6.3 5.7 4.4 7.8 -2.2 -

100 98 100 101 99 99 101 102 102 102

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

58

Consumer sentiment index

Statistical Appendices


6. Machinery orders received and facility investment index Period 2013 2014 2015

Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)

Facility investment index (2010=100) y-o-y change (%)

23,078 26,487 25,545

6.6 14.8 -3.6

2,580 5,012 1,921

20.5 94.2 -61.7

20,497 21,475 23,624

5.1 4.8 10.0

99.8 105.0 111.6

-0.8 5.2 6.3

2014Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6,627 6,106 7,673 6,081

18.6 4.1 49.2 -6.2

1,221 305 2,708 778

184.6 -45.0 418.5 -27.6

5,406 5,801 4,965 5,303

4.8 9.2 7.4 -1.9

98.6 107.9 100.7 112.9

7.5 6.7 1.4 5.5

2015Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6,430 7,017 5,596 6,502

-3.0 14.9 -27.1 6.9

405 493 399 624

-66.9 61.7 -85.3 -19.8

6,025 6,524 5,197 5,878

11.4 12.5 4.7 10.8

107.7 112.8 111.0 114.7

9.2 4.5 10.2 1.6

2016Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲp

6,486 6,810 5,631

0.9 -2.9 0.6

635 569 469

56.9 15.4 17.6

5,851 6,241 5,162

-2.9 -4.3 -0.7

100.1 113.7 105.6

-7.1 0.8 -4.9

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,753 1,844 3,030 2,274 1,831 2,001 1,772 4,083 1,818 1,936 2,308 1,837

-4.9 10.7 45.8 23.2 -13.9 5.7 -8.4 151.8 14.5 -25.7 10.2 3.0

88 120 1,013 97 116 92 89 2,541 79 211 428 139

-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.3 2,653.2 10.6 -73.2 162.6 12.5

1,665 1,724 2,017 2,177 1,714 1,909 1,683 1,543 1,739 1,725 1,881 1,698

-2.3 15.2 3.1 24.2 -8.7 13.6 6.8 0.9 14.7 -5.0 -2.6 2.3

90.4 95.6 109.8 110.6 108.2 104.8 111.3 90.6 100.2 100.1 112.6 126.1

0.3 13.9 8.7 12.1 6.0 2.2 2.7 -9.9 12.8 -8.7 10.5 15.3

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2,313 1,853 2,264 2,766 2,096 2,155 2,004 1,684 1,908 2,048 1,965 2,489

31.9 0.5 -25.3 21.6 14.5 7.7 13.1 -58.8 5.0 5.8 -14.9 35.5

116 141 148 127 197 169 133 160 106 98 228 298

32.0 17.6 -85.4 30.7 69.4 84.7 50.2 -93.7 34.8 -53.6 -46.7 113.6

2,197 1,712 2,116 2,640 1,899 1,986 1,870 1,524 1,802 1,950 1,737 2,191

31.9 -0.7 4.9 21.2 10.8 4.0 11.2 -1.2 3.6 13.1 -7.6 29.1

103.1 98.5 121.4 113.5 107.2 117.7 119.4 105.9 107.8 112.6 107.2 124.4

14.0 3.0 10.6 2.6 -0.9 12.3 7.3 16.9 7.6 12.5 -4.8 -1.3

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8p 9p

1,758 2,275 2,453 1,987 2,135 2,688 2,011 1,638 1,982

-24.0 22.7 8.4 -28.2 1.9 24.7 0.4 -2.7 3.8

69 255 312 189 169 211 52 84 334

-40.7 80.7 110.8 49.3 -14.2 24.6 -61.3 -47.3 214.4

1,689 2,020 2,142 1,798 1,966 2,477 1,960 1,554 1,648

-23.1 18.0 1.2 -31.9 3.5 24.8 4.8 2.0 -8.6

96.9 90.7 112.7 110.3 110.4 120.5 104.5 109.0 103.3

-6.0 -7.9 -7.2 -2.8 3.0 2.4 -12.5 2.9 -4.2

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

November 2016

59


7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received

(current value, billion won)

Period

Value of construction y-o-y completed change (%) (total)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Domestic construction orders y-o-y received change (%) (total)

Type of order Public Private y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2013 2014 2015

98,089 98,491 99,967

10.6 0.4 1.5

34,459 32,015 30,694

1.9 -7.1 -4.1

59,714 62,413 65,114

18.0 4.5 4.3

77,885 90,606 134,338

-12.9 16.3 48.3

24,736 26,427 28,778

-5.1 6.8 8.9

50,947 62,115 102,449

-14.8 21.9 65.0

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

21,678 26,178 23,604 27,031

7.4 1.6 -0.5 -4.9

7,148 8,708 7,245 8,913

2.1 -6.5 -10.1 -11.6

13,677 16,513 15,359 16,864

10.2 6.8 4.2 -1.4

16,144 23,621 24,236 26,604

16.8 26.4 44.0 -6.8

5,924 6,563 5,181 8,758

38.0 22.2 3.9 -13.2

9,759 16,714 18,384 17,258

6.3 32.3 60.7 -2.4

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

21,315 25,034 24,816 28,803

-1.7 -4.4 5.1 6.6

6,593 8,189 7,175 8,738

-7.8 -6.0 -1.0 -2.0

13,973 15,862 16,651 18,628

2.2 -3.9 8.4 10.5

25,417 35,210 36,440 37,270

57.4 49.1 50.4 40.1

4,594 9,069 4,900 10,215

-22.5 38.2 -5.4 16.6

20,537 25,623 30,814 25,525

110.4 53.3 67.6 47.9

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲp

24,191 30,026 29,533

13.5 19.9 19.0

6,711 8,136 7,042

1.8 -0.7 -1.9

16,209 20,505 21,300

16.0 29.3 27.9

28,927 32,992 37,766

13.8 -6.3 3.6

7,812 5,570 8,988

70.1 -38.6 83.4

20,406 26,678 26,887

-0.6 4.1 -12.7

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

7,057 6,666 7,954 8,477 8,192 9,509 7,916 7,722 7,966 8,241 8,350 10,439

12.5 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.7 -2.8 -4.6 -8.1 -2.5

2,315 2,207 2,626 2,740 2,584 3,384 2,430 2,324 2,492 2,533 2,675 3,705

11.7 -5.9 1.8 -3.2 -7.6 -8.3 -7.8 -9.0 -13.2 -14.2 -14.2 -7.7

4,452 4,237 4,987 5,459 5,317 5,737 5,149 5,113 5,098 5,370 5,300 6,194

12.4 15.7 4.1 9.6 4.5 6.5 4.9 5.9 1.9 0.5 -5.9 1.1

5,546 5,632 4,966 7,501 6,820 9,301 7,033 8,789 8,414 8,000 6,399 12,205

55.9 19.3 -10.5 45.6 9.6 27.0 21.8 87.4 32.1 3.2 -20.8 -3.9

2,048 2,244 1,633 1,894 1,983 2,686 1,531 1,617 2,033 1,413 1,850 5,495

57.5 57.2 -4.6 21.0 26.8 19.9 2.5 9.7 0.6 -7.0 -30.5 -6.9

3,309 3,238 3,213 5,596 4,769 6,348 5,364 6,961 6,060 6,406 4,432 6,420

56.9 -1.6 -15.0 77.1 5.1 28.5 29.3 119.4 47.0 4.3 -14.8 1.3

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

6,824 6,690 7,801 7,709 7,767 9,558 7,895 7,939 8,982 8,503 8,709 11,590

-3.3 0.4 -1.9 -9.1 -5.2 0.5 -0.3 2.8 12.8 3.2 4.3 11.0

2,037 2,092 2,463 2,466 2,324 3,399 2,284 2,206 2,685 2,268 2,441 4,029

-12.0 -5.2 -6.2 -10.0 -10.1 0.5 -6.0 -5.1 7.8 -10.4 -8.7 8.7

4,570 4,379 5,024 4,939 5,131 5,792 5,350 5,437 5,864 5,865 5,877 6,886

2.6 3.4 0.7 -9.5 -3.5 1.0 3.9 6.3 15.0 9.2 10.9 11.2

7,515 5,435 12,467 9,055 12,639 13,516 8,685 8,659 19,097 10,378 13,226 13,666

35.5 -3.5 151.0 20.7 85.3 45.3 23.5 -1.5 127.0 29.7 106.7 12.0

1,318 1,135 2,140 2,585 2,458 4,026 1,791 1,921 1,188 1,803 3,296 5,115

-35.6 -49.4 31.3 36.5 24.0 49.9 17.0 18.8 -41.6 27.7 78.2 -6.9

6,084 4,218 10,235 6,414 10,078 9,131 6,817 6,433 17,564 8,574 9,369 7,582

83.9 30.3 218.6 14.6 111.3 43.8 27.1 -7.6 189.8 33.8 111.4 18.1

2016 1 2 3p 4 5 6p 7 8p 9p

7,359 7,273 9,559 8,983 9,460 11,583 9,567 9,950 10,015

7.8 8.7 22.5 16.5 21.8 21.2 21.2 25.3 11.5

2,042 1,970 2,699 2,316 2,350 3,469 2,239 2,335 2,468

0.2 -5.9 9.6 -6.1 1.1 2.1 -2.0 5.9 -8.1

5,003 4,948 6,257 6,269 6,703 7,533 6,968 7,242 7,090

9.5 13.0 24.6 26.9 30.6 30.1 30.2 33.2 20.9

7,225 10,014 11,687 10,828 9,657 12,507 12,550 13,496 11,720

-3.9 84.3 -6.3 19.6 -23.6 -7.5 44.5 55.9 -38.6

2,691 2,347 2,774 1,190 2,126 2,254 3,170 3,547 2,271

104.1 106.8 29.6 -54.0 -13.5 -44.0 77.0 84.7 91.2

4,260 7,586 8,559 9,271 7,412 9,995 8,433 9,446 9,008

-30.0 79.8 -16.4 44.5 -26.5 9.5 23.7 46.8 -48.7

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

60

Type of order Public Private

Statistical Appendices


8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Period

Leading index (2010=100)

Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)

Coincident index (2010=100)

Cyclical indicator of coincident index (2010=100)

BSI (results)

BSI (prospects)

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

107.9 108.2 108.6 108.9 109.4 110.2 110.7 111.2 111.3 111.8 112.3 112.9

99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.3 99.7 99.9 100.1 99.9 100.0 100.1 100.3

108.3 108.6 108.5 108.9 109.2 109.8 110.1 110.4 110.5 110.9 111.2 111.7

99.6 99.6 99.3 99.4 99.4 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.5 99.7 99.7 99.9

85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5

85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

113.3 113.6 113.9 114.3 114.6 114.9 115.1 115.7 116.3 116.8 117.1 117.6

100.4 100.3 100.1 100.2 100.0 100.0 99.8 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.1 100.2

112.2 112.5 112.9 113.0 113.1 113.3 113.8 114.2 114.3 114.3 114.4 115.1

100.1 100.1 100.2 100.1 99.9 99.9 100.0 100.2 100.0 99.7 99.7 100.1

89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 92.3 93.1 90.0 95.4

93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1 100.7 93.6 94.0

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

118.2 118.7 119.2 119.7 120.4 120.7 121.1 121.6 122.2 122.7 123.0 123.2

100.4 100.4 100.6 100.6 100.8 100.7 100.7 100.8 100.9 101.0 100.9 100.8

115.5 116.0 116.1 116.4 116.3 116.4 116.8 117.6 118.4 119.0 119.1 119.4

100.1 100.3 100.1 100.1 99.8 99.6 99.7 100.1 100.6 100.9 100.7 100.6

94.0 89.4 101.5 101.3 95.6 79.9 88.4 86.6 96.1 97.2 95.5 95.5

90.3 92.1 103.7 97.5 99.4 96.4 84.3 89.6 95.1 101.2 95.9 97.5

2016 1 2p 3 4 5p 6 7p 8p 9p 10 11

123.4 123.5 123.9 124.5 124.9 125.3 125.8 126.5 127.3 -

100.5 100.3 100.3 100.4 100.4 100.3 100.4 100.7 100.9 -

119.3 119.4 119.5 119.8 120.4 121.0 121.8 122.4 122.4 -

100.3 100.2 100.0 100.0 100.3 100.5 100.9 101.2 100.9 -

92.1 87.0 94.2 97.3 97.1 91.3 89.7 90.0 92.0 89.0 -

93.2 86.3 98.3 95.7 102.3 94.8 90.5 89.5 95.0 96.0 89.8

Sources: Statistics Korea, Federation of Korean Industries

November 2016

61


9. Balance of payments ( I) Period

Current account

Goods

2013 2014 2015p

81,148.2 84,373.0 105,870.7

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

Services

Primary income

Secondary income

535,375.9 524,135.2 428,547.8

-6,499.2 -3,678.5 -15,708.1

9,055.7 4,150.8 5,901.7

-4,189.3 -4,984.7 -4,612.9

151,471.8 158,004.3 150,820.7 152,723.8

133,876.5 132,828.6 129,843.3 127,586.8

-2,889.0 50.8 -459.6 -380.7

-736.9 556.0 1,398.7 2,933.0

-820.0 -1,674.6 -1,251.6 -1,238.5

24,216.7 33,679.8 30,637.7 31,755.8

134,439.1 142,258.7 135,363.0 136,777.0

110,222.4 108,578.9 104,725.3 105,021.2

-4,387.1 -3,092.6 -3,561.5 -4,666.9

3,830.8 -1,556.9 2,727.7 900.1

-1,221.2 -1,112.7 -695.8 -1,583.2

24,076.1 25,794.6 22,207.8

27,884.2 33,005.9 28,587.9

118,001.5 127,882.2 127,878.2

90,117.3 94,876.3 99,290.3

-4,172.6 -4,132.5 -5,514.9

1,249.3 -1,901.3 1,495.6

-884.8 -1,177.5 -2,360.8

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,870.1 4,965.6 6,313.7 7,030.6 9,187.0 7,890.3 6,096.7 6,966.9 7,601.3 8,741.5 10,755.2 6,954.1

3,847.8 6,103.7 7,643.8 10,068.2 8,786.8 6,320.7 5,677.3 7,041.2 8,258.9 7,983.9 9,593.0 7,560.1

50,116.2 47,605.8 53,749.8 56,091.9 51,957.8 49,954.6 52,416.1 48,151.0 50,253.6 51,029.1 49,241.6 52,453.1

46,268.4 41,502.1 46,106.0 46,023.7 43,171.0 43,633.9 46,738.8 41,109.8 41,994.7 43,045.2 39,648.6 44,893.0

-1,727.0 -529.9 -632.1 -226.5 159.6 117.7 343.2 -391.6 -411.2 163.7 94.0 -638.4

84.9 -444.1 -377.7 -1,912.8 629.4 1,839.4 466.0 835.6 97.1 856.3 1,183.5 893.2

-335.6 -164.1 -320.3 -898.3 -388.8 -387.5 -389.8 -518.3 -343.5 -262.4 -115.3 -860.8

2015p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

6,257.1 6,081.1 10,101.0 7,729.8 8,315.5 11,872.3 9,714.8 8,546.9 10,846.4 9,120.4 9,910.3 7,375.1

6,310.3 7,020.8 10,885.6 12,090.2 8,792.6 12,797.0 9,924.9 8,805.4 11,907.4 10,605.2 10,466.1 10,684.5

45,022.1 40,294.9 49,122.1 49,908.3 43,471.9 48,878.5 47,259.6 42,991.3 45,112.1 47,298.7 43,360.4 46,117.9

38,711.8 33,274.1 38,236.5 37,818.1 34,679.3 36,081.5 37,334.7 34,185.9 33,204.7 36,693.5 32,894.3 35,433.4

-1,991.3 -1,758.8 -637.0 -804.0 -83.8 -2,204.8 -1,254.3 -1,013.0 -1,294.2 -1,701.7 -1,263.9 -1,701.3

2,558.1 1,037.8 234.9 -3,096.6 40.8 1,498.9 1,139.5 850.9 737.3 594.4 893.6 -587.9

-620.0 -218.7 -382.5 -459.8 -434.1 -218.8 -95.3 -96.4 -504.1 -377.5 -185.5 -1,020.2

2016p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

6,820.9 7,169.7 10,085.5 3,371.7 10,361.3 12,061.6 8,671.6 5,275.7 8,260.5

7,899.7 7,539.0 12,445.5 9,559.3 10,737.6 12,709.0 10,778.2 7,052.9 10,756.8

37,227.8 36,231.7 44,542.0 40,313.0 42,426.0 45,143.2 42,476.6 41,394.1 44,007.5

29,328.1 28,692.7 32,096.5 30,753.7 31,688.4 32,434.2 31,698.4 34,341.2 33,250.7

-1,934.2 -1,242.1 -996.3 -1,617.9 -1,135.2 -1,379.4 -1,532.4 -1,447.3 -2,535.2

1,253.4 852.1 -856.2 -4,066.2 908.7 1,256.2 49.0 613.5 833.1

-398.0 20.7 -507.5 -503.5 -149.8 -524.2 -623.2 -943.4 -794.2

Exports

Imports

82,781.0 88,885.4 120,290.0

618,156.9 613,020.6 548,837.8

13,149.4 24,107.9 20,664.9 26,450.8

17,595.3 25,175.7 20,977.4 25,137.0

2015p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

22,439.2 27,917.6 29,108.1 26,405.8

2016p Ⅰ Ⅱp Ⅲp

p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

62

(US $ million)

Statistical Appendices


10. Balance of payments ( II)

(US $ million)

Period

Financial account*

Direct investment

Portfolio investment

Financial derivatives

Other investment

Reserve assets

Capital account

2013 2014 2015p

80,104.6 89,334.0 109,730.0

15,593.2 18,765.6 22,597.8

9,344.5 30,608.9 48,592.8

-4,410.3 -3,826.9 2,532.5

43,281.1 25,900.6 23,954.3

16,296.1 17,885.8 12,052.6

-27.0 -8.9 -64.7

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

15,120.7 24,650.2 21,230.4 28,332.7

2,367.1 7,990.4 2,952.8 5,455.3

12,614.4 4,291.2 4,292.1 9,411.2

-1,004.6 -1,983.9 -1,649.7 811.3

-5,879.9 3,182.9 9,803.2 18,794.4

7,023.7 11,169.6 5,832.0 -6,139.5

-2.1 -4.3 3.6 -6.1

2015p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

23,800.1 28,671.4 29,615.2 27,643.3

4,386.2 7,467.6 4,920.9 5,823.1

7,838.4 6,994.1 15,096.2 18,664.1

-41.0 -461.4 4,040.7 -1,005.8

4,506.4 7,369.2 9,844.1 2,234.6

7,110.1 7,301.9 -4,286.7 1,927.3

-23.1 -25.5 -27.9 11.8

2016p Ⅰ Ⅱp Ⅲp

28,218.0 18,694.5 27,739.3

5,070.3 2,047.8 2,484.8

16,719.1 13,917.8 15,755.7

2,756.8 -1,131.2 -3,622.3

4,958.1 2,911.6 6,164.1

-1,286.3 948.5 6,957.0

-11.6 -7.0 11.0

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3,459.5 6,830.1 4,831.1 6,109.1 8,223.5 10,317.6 4,787.1 7,866.8 8,576.5 7,243.3 10,457.9 10,631.5

-1,420.3 1,601.5 2,185.9 2,369.9 3,512.1 2,108.4 492.8 524.3 1,935.7 2,769.7 1,998.3 687.3

4,393.6 6,429.0 1,791.8 -1,793.6 2,027.7 4,057.1 1,696.5 -705.2 3,300.8 339.4 2,686.3 6,385.5

-177.3 -264.6 -562.7 -890.2 -546.6 -547.1 -597.0 -621.0 -431.7 426.1 91.7 293.5

-2,243.2 -3,260.8 -375.9 5,757.2 -2,737.4 163.1 -132.9 7,841.8 2,094.3 3,955.6 8,579.1 6,259.7

2,906.7 2,325.0 1,792.0 665.8 5,967.7 4,536.1 3,327.7 826.9 1,677.4 -247.5 -2,897.5 -2,994.5

-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3 11.2 -1.3 -1.1 -0.8 -4.2

2015p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

7,898.1 5,175.2 10,726.8 9,802.8 8,558.1 10,310.5 10,018.0 9,052.5 10,544.7 11,086.1 8,697.0 7,860.2

659.2 1,631.0 2,096.0 1,712.2 949.9 4,805.5 -15.1 328.1 4,607.9 3,501.4 903.0 1,418.7

3,623.7 3,001.5 1,213.2 138.0 358.3 6,497.8 8,277.2 2,537.4 4,281.6 7,098.9 5,128.8 6,436.4

76.2 -27.5 -89.7 -301.9 -403.7 244.2 936.4 1,618.6 1,485.7 -812.0 -609.9 416.1

-489.1 371.2 4,624.3 4,851.0 4,755.5 -2,237.3 1,792.3 8,450.1 -398.3 -931.9 1,662.4 1,504.1

4,028.1 199.0 2,883.0 3,403.5 2,898.1 1,000.3 -972.8 -3,881.7 567.8 2,229.7 1,612.7 -1,915.1

-13.0 -1.7 -8.4 -8.5 -1.5 -15.5 -29.9 1.1 0.9 -5.4 17.0 0.2

2016p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

6,478.9 9,503.0 12,236.1 167.1 8,928.1 9,599.3 9,388.0 7,698.7 10,652.6

-71.5 1,554.4 3,587.4 -143.4 715.8 1,475.4 949.2 506.8 1,028.8

4,650.7 6,199.9 5,868.5 3,360.8 4,358.8 6,198.2 90.7 6,745.8 8,919.2

1,214.5 756.6 785.7 -1,033.1 -463.7 365.6 -482.6 -1,180.2 -1,959.5

302.9 2,557.8 2,097.4 -3,333.8 3,915.7 2,329.7 6,863.9 -1,462.7 762.9

382.3 -1,565.7 -102.9 1,316.6 401.5 -769.6 1,966.8 3,089.0 1,901.2

-6.1 -2.3 -3.2 -5.0 1.0 -3.0 2.7 17.1 -8.8

* Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows. p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

November 2016

63


11. Prices Period

(2010=100)

All items y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Producer prices All items Commodities

Core

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2013 2014 2015

107.7 109.0 109.8

1.3 1.3 0.7

110.1 111.1 110.3

1.0 0.9 -0.7

105.8 107.4 109.4

1.5 1.6 1.8

106.6 108.8 111.1

1.6 2.0 2.2

105.7 105.2 101.0

-1.6 -0.5 -4.0

106.2 104.8 98.0

-2.5 -1.4 -6.4

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9

1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1

109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2

1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9

105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2

1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3

105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5

1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9

106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4

-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4

106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 105.9 106.3 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5

-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.3 109.5 109.4 109.1 108.8 108.8

1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8

110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.4 111.5 110.6 110.2 110.1

0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0

106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.7 107.9 107.8 107.8 107.7 107.8

1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6

107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.1 109.1 109.3

1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6

105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6 105.2 104.5 104.1 103.1

-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -2.1

105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.4 105.1 104.7 103.6 103.1 101.7

-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -1.1 -1.4 -1.8 -2.0 -3.6

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

109.4 109.4 109.4 109.5 109.8 109.8 110.0 110.2 110.0 110.1 109.9 110.2

0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3

110.9 110.6 110.3 110.1 110.6 110.7 110.3 110.5 110.2 109.9 109.7 110.1

-0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.0

108.2 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.2 109.2 109.8 110.0 109.9 110.1 110.1 110.3

1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3

110.3 110.4 110.6 110.7 111.1 111.1 111.3 111.5 111.4 111.6 111.7 111.9

2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4

101.9 101.9 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.4 100.8 100.3 99.7 99.3 99.0

-3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6 -4.0 -4.5 -4.6 -4.6 -4.7 -4.0

99.7 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.3 98.6 97.7 97.0 96.0 95.3 95.0

-5.8 -5.8 -5.9 -5.8 -5.7 -5.8 -6.4 -7.1 -7.3 -7.4 -7.6 -6.6

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

110.3 110.8 110.5 110.6 110.7 110.7 110.8 110.7 111.4 111.5

0.8 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.2 1.3

109.7 110.5 109.6 109.6 109.5 109.5 109.5 108.9 110.5 110.7

-1.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -1.1 -0.7 -1.5 0.3 0.7

110.8 111.0 111.2 111.4 111.6 111.6 111.9 112.1 112.1 112.1

2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8

112.2 112.5 112.5 112.7 112.9 113.0 113.1 112.8 112.8 113.4

1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.5

98.5 98.5 98.4 98.7 98.8 99.0 98.9 99.0 99.2 99.5

-3.3 -3.4 -3.3 -3.0 -3.0 -2.7 -2.5 -1.8 -1.1 -0.2

94.0 93.9 93.8 94.1 94.3 94.6 94.4 94.4 94.7 94.9

-5.7 -5.9 -5.7 -5.2 -5.1 -4.7 -4.3 -3.4 -2.4 -1.1

Source: Bank of Korea

64

Consumer prices Commodities Services

Statistical Appendices


12. Employment Period

Economically active persons (thousands)

y-o-y change (%)

Employed persons (thousands) All industry Manufacturing y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%)

SOC & services Unemployment rate (%) y-o-y change (%)

2013 2014 2015

25,873 26,536 26,913

1.5 2.6 1.4

25,066 25,599 25,936

1.6 2.1 1.3

4,184 4,330 4,486

1.9 3.5 3.6

19,347 19,805 20,029

1.6 2.4 1.5

3.1 3.5 3.6

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736

1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4

24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962

1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3

4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264

3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0

18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514

1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7

3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825 26,891 26,775 26,766 26,809 26,786 26,270

3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1

24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875 25,979 25,885 25,917 25,951 25,968 25,384

2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7

4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,345 4,358 4,335 4,347 4,361 4,355 4,406

2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.4 3.3

19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841 20,003 19,940 19,949 19,973 20,098 19,896

3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0

3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

26,094 26,398 26,577 26,954 27,211 27,255 27,303 27,064 27,129 27,137 27,082 26,747

1.7 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.8

25,106 25,195 25,501 25,900 26,189 26,205 26,305 26,141 26,264 26,298 26,253 25,879

1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 2.0

4,421 4,433 4,400 4,455 4,464 4,478 4,528 4,491 4,512 4,552 4,545 4,552

3.3 3.7 2.7 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.4 3.3

19,693 19,716 19,832 20,004 20,179 20,161 20,250 20,153 20,249 20,248 20,353 20,266

1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.9

3.8 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

26,433 26,734 26,955 27,228 27,455 27,563 27,578 27,524 27,516 27,499

1.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.3

25,445 25,418 25,800 26,153 26,450 26,559 26,603 26,528 26,531 26,577

1.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.0 1.1

4,566 4,541 4,525 4,503 4,514 4,493 4,464 4,418 4,436 4,437

3.3 2.4 2.8 1.1 1.1 0.3 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -2.5

19,955 19,885 20,028 20,263 20,483 20,593 20,719 20,677 20,653 20,682

1.3 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 2.1

3.7 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4

Source: Statistics Korea

November 2016

65


13. Financial indicators Call rate (1 day)

CDs (91 days)

2012 7 8 9 10 11 12

3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8

3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9

3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9

3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0

1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4

2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9

2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3

1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0

2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5

2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1

3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3

1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09 1,964.43 1,980.78 1,915.59

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7

2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1

2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7

2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9

1,949.26 1,985.80 2,041.03 2,127.17 2,114.80 2,074.20 2,030.16 1,941.49 1,962.81 2,029.47 1,991.97 1,961.31

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4

2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8

1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4

1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4

1,912.06 1,916.66 1,995.85 1,994.15 1,983.40 1,970.35 2,016.19 2,034.65 2,043.63 2,008.19

Period

Source: Bank of Korea

66

(period average)

Yields (%) Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)

Statistical Appendices

Treasury bonds (3 years)

Treasury bonds (5 years)

Stock KOSPI (end-period)


14. Monetary indicators Reserve money

Period 2013 2014 2015

(period average, billion won)

M1

y-o-y change (%)

M2

y-o-y change (%)

Lf y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

91,379.4 103,331.5 120,691.4

11.3 13.1 16.8

484,062.9 536,733.4 636,639.0

9.5 10.9 18.6

1,885,781.3 2,009,576.3 2,182,911.9

4.8 6.6 8.6

2,543,232.5 2,721,502.2 2,986,699.4

6.9 7.0 9.7

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

85,839.3 88,855.7 89,523.5 87,729.0 89,654.8 91,207.6 90,643.7 93,729.6 95,130.6 93,640.4 93,609.9 96,988.5

5.1 8.8 13.2 8.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 13.8 14.7 10.1 12.8 13.7

464,914.5 472,239.6 472,430.1 475,330.0 475,526.7 486,587.5 488,982.7 481,416.9 490,518.7 491,947.9 499,242.7 509,617.9

5.8 8.0 7.4 8.7 8.4 10.2 10.7 9.5 11.5 10.7 12.1 11.3

1,841,128.1 1,857,135.0 1,862,405.5 1,867,726.3 1,870,289.7 1,884,193.2 1,890,728.6 1,888,658.4 1,903,187.1 1,908,557.6 1,923,339.2 1,932,026.4

4.8 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.3

2,469,789.3 2,488,539.0 2,499,718.1 2,512,459.7 2,518,239.1 2,533,750.8 2,549,443.5 2,557,336.3 2,577,546.7 2,587,071.4 2,605,866.7 2,619,029.5

7.7 8.1 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

98,541.6 100,547.9 100,624.0 98,898.5 101,791.4 101,412.3 101,164.2 107,682.4 105,354.1 107,117.5 106,667.9 110,175.6

14.8 13.2 12.4 12.7 13.5 11.2 11.6 14.9 10.7 14.4 13.9 13.6

515,742.5 518,475.5 520,299.0 518,809.3 523,069.9 532,041.2 534,028.8 538,640.3 548,550.8 551,416.0 562,006.2 577,721.1

10.9 9.8 10.1 9.1 10.0 9.3 9.2 11.9 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.4

1,937,045.6 1,954,340.7 1,964,954.0 1,970,361.6 1,982,390.9 1,999,376.3 2,013,935.1 2,031,777.2 2,037,600.8 2,051,149.8 2,083,253.5 2,088,729.8

5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.6 7.1 7.5 8.3 8.1

2,635,100.1 2,647,674.0 2,659,443.2 2,669,341.4 2,684,643.9 2,703,088.1 2,725,737.6 2,743,972.5 2,759,390.8 2,776,968.0 2,817,698.0 2,834,968.4

6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.1 7.3 8.1 8.2

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

113,304.2 116,502.4 115,974.9 115,132.7 117,726.3 118,688.2 122,041.0 121,854.4 126,572.2 125,616.2 126,767.1 128,117.5

15.0 15.9 15.3 16.4 15.7 17.0 20.6 13.2 20.1 17.3 18.8 16.3

579,964.2 592,737.4 600,719.9 610,803.3 621,985.5 630,546.3 645,975.4 653,105.9 665,691.1 669,737.7 677,629.2 690,772.4

12.5 14.3 15.5 17.7 18.9 18.5 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.5 20.6 19.6

2,092,223.5 2,109,892.3 2,127,887.8 2,148,114.7 2,166,741.1 2,179,561.1 2,200,510.9 2,218,660.3 2,230,000.7 2,232,432.0 2,242,848.2 2,246,070.1

8.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.2 9.4 8.8 7.7 7.5

2,857,610.1 2,876,467.8 2,907,976.4 2,936,746.7 2,960,998.1 2,986,316.5 3,013,503.9 3,028,981.1 3,049,823.2 3,059,051.9 3,076,029.2 3,086,887.8

8.4 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.2 8.9

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

131,279.3 134,913.0 132,957.9 135,038.9 135,971.3 135,758.4 135,906.7 139,073.9 142,079.6

15.9 15.8 14.6 17.3 15.5 14.4 11.4 14.1 12.3

699,767.3 708,014.0 713,861.2 720,818.5 722,544.4 730,637.8 735,172.2 738,120.9 751,408.5

20.7 19.4 18.8 18.0 16.2 15.9 13.8 13.0 12.9

2,261,356.4 2,285,313.5 2,294,544.7 2,299,081.3 2,312,801.2 2,334,256.2 2,352,245.1 2,377,323.1 2,383,040.5

8.1 8.3 7.8 7.0 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.2 6.9

3,110,535.8 3,133,492.2 3,158,687.8 3,170,277.9 3,189,899.3 3,223,154.5 3,242,338.3 3,270,365.6 3,288,026.0

8.9 8.9 8.6 8.0 7.7 7.9 7.6 8.0 7.8

Source: Bank of Korea

November 2016

67


15. Exchange rates Period

100/ \

Euro/ \

Won

y-o-y change (%)

Won

y-o-y change (%)

Won

y-o-y change (%)

2013 2014 2015

1,055.3 1,099.2 1,172.0

-1.5 4.2 6.6

1,004.7 920.1 972.0

-19.5 -8.4 5.6

1,456.3 1,336.5 1,280.5

2.8 -8.2 -4.2

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3

-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5

1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7

-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5

1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3

-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4 1,024.3 1,013.6 1,050.6 1,054.0 1,101.1 1,099.2

-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8 -8.0 -8.8 -2.3 -0.7 3.7 4.2

1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0 995.7 977.6 960.2 964.1 933.9 920.1

-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3 -12.3 -13.4 -12.6 -10.5 -10.0 -8.4

1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2 1,371.8 1,336.2 1,333.3 1,328.8 1,372.2 1,336.5

0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6 -7.1 -9.1 -8.1 -8.8 -5.0 -8.2

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,090.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1 1,108.0 1,124.1 1,166.3 1,176.3 1,194.5 1,142.3 1,150.4 1,172.0

1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5 8.5 10.8 13.9 16.1 13.7 8.4 4.5 6.6

921.3 920.7 920.3 897.2 894.6 917.2 939.3 970.1 996.8 944.1 936.7 972.0

-11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8 -10.9 -8.3 -5.7 -0.8 3.8 -2.1 0.3 5.6

1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0 1,215.2 1,260.5 1,275.4 1,317.3 1,343.9 1,254.8 1,218.3 1,280.5

-16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7 -12.6 -8.9 -7.0 -1.4 0.8 -5.6 -11.2 -4.2

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1,208.4 1,235.4 1,153.5 1,143.9 1,190.6 1,164.7 1,125.7 1,118.5 1,096.3 1,145.2

10.8 12.4 4.4 7.1 7.5 3.6 -3.5 -4.9 -8.2 0.3

1,017.1 1,085.8 1,026.0 1,058.2 1,072.8 1,132.2 1,073.7 1,086.3 1,083.7 1,094.4

10.4 17.9 11.5 17.9 19.9 23.4 14.3 12.0 8.7 15.9

1,322.2 1,348.3 1,307.4 1,298.4 1,326.8 1,295.5 1,246.7 1,246.9 1,230.3 1,257.1

7.0 9.6 9.2 9.4 9.2 2.8 -2.3 -5.3 -8.5 0.2

Source: Bank of Korea

68

(end-period)

US $/ \

Statistical Appendices


Dancheong Dancheong refers to decorative coloring or colorful patterns that adorn traditional wooden roofs in Korea. It is based on the five basic colors of blue, white, red, black and yellow, and serves not only decorative purposes but practical ones as well, such as protecting the wood against wind and rain.

Useful websites Ministry of Strategy and Finance_http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy_http://english.motie.go.kr Financial Services Commission_http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service_http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission_http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Employment and Labor_http://www.moel.go.kr/english Bank of Korea_http://www.bok.or.kr/eng Statistics Korea_http://kostat.go.kr/portal/eng


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