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Breaking Intergenerational Poverty in Dallas


1 IN 3 CHILDREN IN DALLAS LIVES IN POVERTY.


● Economists estimate that childhood poverty costs the U.S. economy over $1 trillion per year, or 5.4% GDP. ● Each child growing up in poverty has an average net-cost to our economy of $1.6 million throughout that child’s life. ● 100,000+ kids in poverty = $160B+ lifetime cost


The cycle of poverty cannot be broken by only treating symptoms. Trauma and toxic stress widen the opportunity gap for low-income children. Scalable results will require us to focus resources toward children and prevention.


CPAL offers a new way of collaborating. Due to the complexity of child poverty within the context of siloed resources, historical disparity, and vested interests, coordination across stakeholders is more diďŹƒcult and necessary than ever. CPAL is built on the premise that the moral and economic imperative to reduce child poverty can incite new levels of collaboration and maximize the impact potential of our shared resources through the following theory of change:


Bringing Leadership and Resources Together

“Every system is perfectly designed to get the results it does.�


Share of Children Making More Than Their Parents

The fading American dream -- economic mobility is getting harder to achieve

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

Birth Year Source: Chetty et al., “The fading American dream: Trends in absolute income mobility since 1940�

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984


Bringing Leadership and Resources Together

“Every system is perfectly designed to get the results it does.�


Why focus on making government more effective?

$1.1 Trillion Govt spending on social safety net


Spending on safety net programs across the United States

$1.1 Trillion Govt spending on social safety net

$50 Billion


Public Agency Leadership

City of Dallas City Manager, T.C. Broadnax

Dallas County County Judge, Clay Jenkins

Dallas Area Rapid Transit President & Executive Director, Gary Thomas

Dallas Independent School District Superintendent, Michael Hinojosa

Dallas County Community College District Chancellor, Joe May

Workforce Solutions of Greater Dallas President, Laurie Larrea

Parkland Health & Hospital System President & CEO, Frederick Cerise

Dallas Police Department Chief of Police, Renee Hall

Dallas Housing Authority CEO, Troy Broussard


How we organize the work


CPAL’s goal is to cut child poverty in half in a single generation. CPAL’s North Star

Poor Children in Dallas

-50% REDUCE CHILD POVERTY BY 50% WITHIN 20 YEARS.

Source: City of Dallas, US Census Bureau


While many factors influence child poverty, we’ve grouped them into five categories.

Basic Needs Childhood obesity Premature births Low birthweights Malnutrition Exercise Regular doctor visits Infant mortality Immunization rate WIC Enrollment Early prenatal care Mental health Diabetes rates Asthma prevalence

Family Structure Single parent Households Parental Incarceration

Safe Surroundings

Adverse childhood experiences Witnessing domestic violence Substance abuse rate Parental mental health Divorce rate Child neglect rate Foster care rate Housing stability Weapons in home Crime rates

Education

Postsecondary attainment Discipline rate Rate of limited English proficiency School performance HS graduation rate Meeting 5th grade STAAR achievement standards Discipline rate Postsecondary enrollment rate

Hundreds of drivers and outcomes vetted

Adolescent pregnancy rate

Rate of children with consistent caretakers

Living-Wage Jobs

Living wage job access % of people living in neighborhoods of high poverty Underemployment rate Families at living wage Affordable transportation Jobs in commuting distance of high poverty neighborhoods Jobs created in high poverty neighborhoods Transportation coverage


Shared Outcomes North Star

REDUCE CHILD POVERTY BY 50% WITHIN 20 YEARS

Outcome Categories

Target Outcomes (2038)

Basic Needs

Reduce underutilization of key family support programs (WIC, SNAP, EITC, CTC, etc.) to under 10%.

Family Structure

Increase the number of children growing up in two-parent homes (vs. single-parent homes) by 25%.

Safe Surroundings

Decrease high-risk Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) incidents by 50%.

Education

Double the annual rate of career degrees issued.

Living-Wage Jobs

Increase annual income by 25% for the bottom quintile of families.


Individual goals must collectively meet our north star goal.

CPAL will create a defensible mathematical roadmap to cutting child poverty in half within a single generation

Reduce Child Poverty by 50%

Goal

DALLAS COUNTY

Category 1

Category 2

Category 3

Category 4

Category 5


Shared Outcomes North Star

REDUCE CHILD POVERTY BY 50% WITHIN 20 YEARS

Outcome Categories

Target Outcomes (2038)

Basic Needs

Reduce underutilization of key family support programs (WIC, SNAP, EITC, CTC, etc.) to under 10%.

Family Structure

Increase the number of children growing up in two-parent homes (vs. single-parent homes) by 25%.

Safe Surroundings

Decrease high-risk Adverse Childhood Effects (ACE) incidents by 50%.

Education

Double the annual rate of career degrees issued.

Living-Wage Jobs

Increase annual income by 25% for the bottom quintile of families.


Shared Outcomes North Star

REDUCE CHILD POVERTY BY 50% WITHIN 20 YEARS

Outcome Categories

Target Outcomes (2038)

Basic Needs

Reduce underutilization of key family support programs (WIC, SNAP, EITC, CTC, etc.) to under 10%.

Family Structure

Increase the number of children growing up in two-parent homes (vs. single-parent homes) by 25%.

Safe Surroundings

Decrease high-risk Adverse Childhood Effects (ACE) incidents by 50%.

Education

Double the annual rate of career degrees issued.

Living-Wage Jobs

Increase annual income by 25% for the bottom quintile of families.


Absolute Upward Mobility

Family Structure -- How it affects mobility

Correlation = –0.76

Percent of Single Mother Families


How we estimate the number of children pulled out of poverty

Potential Impact

X

Reach

X

Achievability

How directly the indicator inuences poverty

How many children can be impacted by an intervention

How likely it is that interventions will succeed

Higher score means more closely tied to poverty

Higher score means more children are impacted

Higher score means higher chance of success

=

Children pulled out of poverty


Example: Family Structure – Single-Parent Homes Potential Impact Calculation

Potential Impact

X

Poverty by Parent Status

Reach

X

Achievability

=

Children pulled out of poverty

Poverty Rate Comparison: One Parent vs. Two Parents = 2.8 : 1 Assumption: Children in single parent homes have much higher rates of poverty than two parent homes Calculation: Being in a two-parent home decreases risk of poverty by 65%

65%


Example: Family Structure – Single-Parent Homes Reach Calculation

Potential Impact

X

Reach

X

Achievability

Key Assumptions: ● 7.1M poor children in single parent homes in the US; 13.9 poor children in the US ● The US ratio is similar to the ratio in Texas ● 7.1 / 13.9 = 51% Calculation: 105K poor children * 51% low-income children * 50% we want to impact = 54K

=

Children pulled out of poverty

26k


Example: Family Structure – Single-Parent Homes Achievability Assumption

Potential Impact

X

Reach

%

1%

s4

ix

P

en ho

34

2 US

7%

Probability of Success

=

%

le att Se

Children pulled out of poverty

Assumption: Comparing Dallas to the national average and highest-performing cities in the nation allow us to estimate how much opportunity there is for improvement, which informs probability of success

% of Single Parent Families

lla Da

X

24

Calculations: ● Dallas has a much higher proportion of single-parent homes than other cities, so there’s room for improvement ● Thus we assume there is a high opportunity for success in Dallas ● High probability = 75%, Medium = 50%, Low = 25%

75%


Example: Family Structure – Single-Parent Homes Final Calculation of Children Impacted

Potential Impact

X

Reach

X

Achievability

=

Children pulled out of poverty

65%

X

26k

X

75%

=

13k


To achieve our goal, we need to break our “big goal� into smaller pieces and set short-term, achievable goals. Critical Drivers

For example, let’s look at the Family Structure category

The # of children living in single-parent homes is a leading indicator of intergenerational poverty.

Unplanned Pregnancy & Mass Incarceration are key drivers of low-income children in single-parent homes, so we will focus on action strategies related to these drivers

Action Strategies

CPAL will look locally, statewide, and nationally for the most promising data-driven strategies and insights to mobilize transformational action


Shared Strategies: Six Big Bets for Action at Scale

1

2

3

4

5

Improve Service Delivery of Underutilized State & Federal Supports

Eliminate Barriers to Contraception & Women’s Health

Expand Housing Options to Enable Neighborhood Preference

Align Fragmented Public Investment to Strengthen Child Care & 0-3 Services

Reduce Levels of Parent & Juvenile Incarceration

BASIC NEEDS

FAMILY STRUCTURE

SAFE SURROUNDINGS

EDUCATION

6 Integrate Trauma Prevention & Care Into Existing Systems

LIVING WAGE JOBS


How we use data to incite action


Shared Strategies: Six Big Bets for Action at Scale

1

2

3

4

5

Improve Service Delivery of Underutilized State & Federal Supports

Eliminate Barriers to Contraception & Women’s Health

Expand Housing Options to Enable Neighborhood Preference

Align Fragmented Public Investment to Strengthen Child Care & 0-3 Services

Reduce Levels of Parent & Juvenile Incarceration

BASIC NEEDS

FAMILY STRUCTURE

SAFE SURROUNDINGS

EDUCATION

6 Integrate Trauma Prevention & Care Into Existing Systems

LIVING WAGE JOBS


Shared Strategies: Six Big Bets for Action at Scale

1 Improve Service Delivery of Underutilized State & Federal Supports

BASIC NEEDS

FAMILY STRUCTURE

SAFE SURROUNDINGS

EDUCATION

LIVING WAGE JOBS


Only 39.2% of eligible participants receive WIC support in Dallas County Using available census data, we estimate 220,158 women, infants, and children are eligible for WIC service in FY 2018 ‌ but only 80,150 have participated and received available nutritional support so far in FY 2018 in partnership with


$50M+ in underutilization of available funding.


Eligibility Clusters Cluster Analysis: Are centers near the highest population & highest density clusters of eligible participants?

CPAL will support tangible action by sharing ongoing data insights (like the cluster analysis) as a resource for decision-makers.

in partnership with


40


Walmart Intelligent Retail Lab


Shared Strategies: Six Big Bets for Action at Scale

1

2

3

4

5

Improve Service Delivery of Underutilized State & Federal Supports

Eliminate Barriers to Contraception & Women’s Health

Expand Housing Options to Enable Neighborhood Preference

Align Fragmented Public Investment to Strengthen Child Care & 0-3 Services

Reduce Levels of Parent & Juvenile Incarceration

BASIC NEEDS

FAMILY STRUCTURE

SAFE SURROUNDINGS

EDUCATION

6 Integrate Trauma Prevention & Care Into Existing Systems

LIVING WAGE JOBS


Shared Strategies: Six Big Bets for Action at Scale

2 Eliminate Barriers to Contraception & Women’s Health

BASIC NEEDS

FAMILY STRUCTURE

SAFE SURROUNDINGS

EDUCATION

LIVING WAGE JOBS


Preventing mistimed births would increase college graduation rates for mistimed children by

36%


Contraceptive Access & Teen Births Contrary to the fear among many that contraceptive coverage could “affect risky sexual behavior in a negative way,� expanded access to contraception has not coincided with an increase in risky sexual behavior among teens. In fact, the share of teens who are sexually active has declined since 1991. U.S. Teen Birth Rate is Now Under One-quarter its 1960 Level

Greater Access to Contraception Not Accompanied by Increased Sexual Activity Among Teens % of Teens Who Report Sexual Activity

Source: Brookings Institute, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2017/11/08/note-to-gop-to-improve-womens-economic-opportunities-dont-cut-family-planning-expand-it/


Contraceptive Costs Matter While teen birth rates have plummeted, other groups have not witnessed similar progress. Almost half of all pregnancies in the U.S are still unintended. The rate of unintended pregnancy has declined for all women, but much less so for poor and minority women. Poor and Minority Women Have the Highest Risk of Unintended Pregnancy Pregnancies per 1,000 Women in 1980 & 2011

Source: Brookings Institute, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2017/11/08/note-to-gop-to-improve-womens-economic-opportunities-dont-cut-family-planning-expand-it/


Access disparities exist

Source: The University of Texas at Austin: Texas Policy Evaluation Project, https://liberalarts.utexas.edu/txpep/press-releases.php


Access disparities exist

Source: The University of Texas at Austin: Texas Policy Evaluation Project, https://liberalarts.utexas.edu/txpep/press-releases.php


Access disparities exist

Source: The University of Texas at Austin: Texas Policy Evaluation Project, https://liberalarts.utexas.edu/txpep/press-releases.php


Shared Strategies: Six Big Bets for Action at Scale

5 Reduce Levels of Parent & Juvenile Incarceration

BASIC NEEDS

FAMILY STRUCTURE

SAFE SURROUNDINGS

EDUCATION

LIVING WAGE JOBS


What is Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM)? Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) is a predictive analytics tool developed by Les Kennedy and Joel Caplan at Rutgers University Center on Public Security and now being put to use in Dallas through a partnership between CPAL and SMU’s Center on Research and Evaluation (CORE). RTM diagnoses spatial features in a neighborhood that come together to create conditions conducive to risky behaviors., ○ ○ ○

Geospatial Analytics: RTM diagnoses environmental conditions that lead to crime (and other problems). Focus on Places, not People: RTM adds the why to the where. Connecting the Dots: RTM analysis brings multiple sources of data together by connecting them to geographic places. It adds context to ‘big data’ and forecasts new risk patterns for certain areas.


Spatial Influence


How Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) can help us to collaborate on public safety for kids We have divided Dallas into 243,336 cells. We then conduct RTM analysis that brings multiple sources of data together by connecting them to the speciďŹ c cells.


Preventing Juvenile Incarceration: Robberies result in among the highest number of felony referrals to the DA for juveniles. RTM identifies what geographic features in the environment

~37% of juvenile robberies in Dallas occur in

~3% of the City of Dallas

attract crime. This diagnosis makes very accurate forecasts that can be used to deploy resources, prevent crime, and reduce risks.

With RTM, city officials know the “where and why” of crime, and what to do when they get there to address it -- without the harms of over-policing. RTM is proven to reduce crime rates and improve community relations.


Given resource constraints, RTM can diagnose where to get the greatest ROI on collaborative action

Areas shown in pink highlight the 49 cells with geographic features creating the highest risk for juvenile robbery across Dallas (out of 243,336 total cells).


1 IN 3 CHILDREN IN DALLAS LIVES IN POVERTY.


Dallas is one of the nation’s most segregated regions along racial and socioeconomic lines


Martin Luther King Jr in 1966 at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, TX


King had called racism and poverty twin evils in the world...


in America, the richest nation in the world, “at least one-fifth of our fellow citizens” live in poverty


1 IN 3 CHILDREN IN DALLAS LIVES IN POVERTY.


Thank you!


OUR BELIEF:

IF EVERY INDIVIDUAL IN DALLAS…

IS EQUIPPED WITH GOOD AND COMPLETE INFORMATION…


OUR BELIEF:

IF AN INDIVIDUAL IN DALLAS…

IS EQUIPPED WITH GOOD AND COMPLETE INFORMATION…

IS GIVEN AGENCY OVER THEIR OWN DECISION-MAKING…


OUR BELIEF:

IF AN INDIVIDUAL IN DALLAS…

IS EQUIPPED WITH GOOD AND COMPLETE INFORMATION…

AND IS NOT HINDERED HAS AGENCY BY UNNECESSARY OVER THEIR OWN BARRIERS IN MAKING DECISION-MAKING… THOSE DECISIONS…


VERY FEW PEOPLE WILL CHOOSE POVERTY.


Framework: Barriers & Motivation

BA

N O I

RR

IE

RS

T A IV

M

OT


Shifting conditions that hold the problem in place ● Policies: Government, institutional and organizational rules, regulations and priorities that guide the entity’s own and others’ actions.

Policies

Practices

● Practices: Espoused activities of institutions, coalitions, networks, and other entities targeted to improving social and environmental progress. Also, within the entity, the procedures, operating rules and guidelines, or informal habits. ● Resource Flows: How money, people, knowledge, information, and other assets such as infrastructure are allocated and distributed.

Relationships

Resource Flows

Power Dynamics

Structural Change Explicit

Gated Change Semi-explicit

● Relationships: Quality of connections and communication occurring among actors in the system, especially among those with differing histories and viewpoints. ● Power Dynamics: The distribution of decision-making power, authority, and both formal and informal influence among individuals and organizations. ● Mental Models: Habits of thought—deeply held beliefs and assumptions and taken-for-granted ways of operating that influence how we think, what we do, and how we talk.

Mental Models

Transformative Change Implicit


Shifting conditions that hold the problem in place ● Policies: Government, institutional and organizational rules, regulations and priorities that guide the entity’s own and others’ actions.

Policies

Practices

● Practices: Espoused activities of institutions, coalitions, networks, and other entities targeted to improving social and environmental progress. Also, within the entity, the procedures, operating rules and guidelines, or informal habits. ● Resource Flows: How money, people, knowledge, information, and other assets such as infrastructure are allocated and distributed.

Relationships

Resource Flows

Power Dynamics

Structural Change Explicit

Gated Change Semi-explicit

● Relationships: Quality of connections and communication occurring among actors in the system, especially among those with differing histories and viewpoints. ● Power Dynamics: The distribution of decision-making power, authority, and both formal and informal influence among individuals and organizations. ● Mental Models: Habits of thought—deeply held beliefs and assumptions and taken-for-granted ways of operating that influence how we think, what we do, and how we talk.

Mental Models

Transformative Change Implicit


Shifting conditions that hold the problem in place ● Policies: Government, institutional and organizational rules, regulations and priorities that guide the entity’s own and others’ actions.

Policies

Practices

● Practices: Espoused activities of institutions, coalitions, networks, and other entities targeted to improving social and environmental progress. Also, within the entity, the procedures, operating rules and guidelines, or informal habits. ● Resource Flows: How money, people, knowledge, information, and other assets such as infrastructure are allocated and distributed.

Relationships

Resource Flows

Power Dynamics

Structural Change Explicit

Gated Change Semi-explicit

● Relationships: Quality of connections and communication occurring among actors in the system, especially among those with differing histories and viewpoints. ● Power Dynamics: The distribution of decision-making power, authority, and both formal and informal influence among individuals and organizations. ● Mental Models: Habits of thought—deeply held beliefs and assumptions and taken-for-granted ways of operating that influence how we think, what we do, and how we talk.

Mental Models

Transformative Change Implicit


BASIC NEEDS

Economic Mobility Research: Effects of Basic Needs Supports on Child Poverty Change in Number of Children in Poverty After Including Each Element 2017, in millions

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2017-2018 Annual Social and Economic Supplements. Table A-7 - “Effect of Individual Elements on the Number of Individuals in Poverty: 2016 and 2017.�


FAMILY STRUCTURE

Absolute Upward Mobility

Economic Mobility Research: Family structure is highly correlated to adult outcomes

Correlation = –0.76

Percent of Single Mother Families


SAFE SURROUNDINGS

Economic Mobility Research: Childhood Trauma Increases the Odds of Adult Poverty Adjusted Odds of Poverty, Unemployment, High School Noncompletion 2016

Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) are traumatic events in a child’s life:

6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

Physical abuse Emotional abuse Sexual abuse Domestic violence Parental substance abuse Mental illness Suicide or death Crime or family incarceration Physical neglect Emotional neglect

of children reporting multiple ACEs experience 4 or more.

Increased Likelihood

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

42%

Number of ACEs Source: Metzler, M., et al., Adverse childhood experiences and life opportunities: Shifting the narrative, Children and Youth Services Review (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2016.10.021


EDUCATION

Child Rank

Economic Mobility Research: Postsecondary Degrees Level the Playing Field

Source: Chetty et al., “Mobility report cards:The role of colleges in intergenerational mobility,” Figure III: Relationship between children’s and parent’s ranks within colleges

Parent Rank


LIVING WAGE JOBS

Effect on Earnings ($), Experimental vs. Control

Economic Mobility Research: Neighborhoods Are One Factor That Significantly Impacts Prospects of Living Wage Employment as an Adult

Source: Chetty et al., “The effects of exposure to better neighborhoods on children: New evidence from the Moving to Opportunity experiment,” Figure 1: Impacts of experimental voucher by age of earnings measurement

Age of Income Measurement

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Breakfast with Child Poverty Action Lab  

Breakfast with Child Poverty Action Lab