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Jehl & Kreilach Financial Managment Presents:

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE September 24, 2012

WEEKLY QUOTE

HOME SALES SOAR, HOUSING STARTS INCREASE

“Treasure the love you receive above all. It will survive long after your good health has vanished.” - Og Mandino

According to the National Association of Realtors, the volume of residential resales hit a 27-month peak in August. Sales rose 7.8% for the month while the inventory of unsold homes decreased to 6.1 months (the smallest estimate since January). There was also a 9.5% year-over-year gain in the median sale price. Short sales and foreclosures represented 22% of last month’s transactions, down from 31% in August 2011. Housing starts were up 2.3% in August, the Commerce Department noted, with groundbreaking on single-family projects up 5.5%.1,2

WEEKLY TIP

SLIGHT RETREAT FOR LEADING INDICATORS

The fine print on a lease or a mortgage is always worth reading. Ask the business owners and homeowners who have learned this from experience.

WEEKLY RIDDLE How many cubic yards of dirt are in a hole that is 9' deep, 8' long and 1' wide? Last week’s riddle: What lives above a star but never burns, has 11 neighbors, and can replace the letters P, Q, R or S in some cases? Last week’s answer: The number 7 (on most telephone keypads).

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index slipped 0.1% for August in contrast to its 0.5% July increase. The LEI now stands at 95.7 (it was at 100 when created in 2004); stock prices and yield spreads have been the big factors aiding its overall advance since February.3

OIL PLUMMETS, GOLD & DXY BOTH ADVANCE NYMEX crude tumbled 6.17% last week on ebbing demand, settling Friday at $92.89 a barrel. A gallon of gas was averaging $3.83 at the pump at the end of the week, according to AAA. COMEX gold closed at $1,778.00 Friday after rising 0.30% in five days; the U.S. Dollar Index achieved a weekly gain of 0.71%.4

PLACID WEEK SEES INSIGNIFICANT LOSSES The Dow (-0.10% to 13,579.47), NASDAQ (-0.13% to 3,179.96) and S&P 500 (-0.38% to 1,460.15) shifted out of rally mode last week, but all three indices were having an unusually good September as of Friday’s closing bell – DJIA, +3.73%; S&P, +3.81%; NASDAQ, +3.68%. The CBOE VIX – the “fear index” – settled down at 13.97 Friday. The Dow went red last week for the first time in three weeks. 4,5,6 THIS WEEK: On Monday, EU leaders may announce an economic reform program for Spain that would permit that nation to receive a bailout; stateside, Lennar issues earnings. Tuesday, July’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index and FHFA Housing Price Index arrive, along with the Conference Board’s September consumer confidence poll. Wednesday, the Census Bureau issues the August new home sales report. Thursday, reports on August durable goods orders, August pending home sales and weekly jobless claims complement the final estimate of Q2 GDP from the federal government and earnings from Micron, Discover, Accenture, RiM and Nike. Friday offers September’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, August consumer spending data and earnings from Walgreens. % CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+11.15

+22.06

-0.35

+7.00

NASDAQ

+22.06

+25.28

+3.81

+16.04

S&P 500

+16.11

+25.15

-0.86

+7.27

REAL YIELD

9/21 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

-0.71%

0.02%

2.31%

3.10%

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov - 9/21/12 5,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

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We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list. Registered Representative and Principal, Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research Inc., broker/dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC to residents of: IN, AK, FL, IA, IL, MI, MN, MO, TN, CT, CA, NY, NJ, SC, VA and OH. Advisory Services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor to residents of: IN, AK, FL, IA, IL, MI, MN, MO, TN, CT, CA, NY, NJ, SC, VA and OH. Jehl & Kreilach Financial Management and Cambridge are not affiliated This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations. 1 - blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2012/09/19/home-sales-data-gives-market-a-spark-builders-trim-gains/ [9/19/12] 2 - www.usatoday.com/money/business/story/2012/09/19/existing-home-sales-housing-starts-jump-in-august/57806124/1 [9/19/12] 3 - www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/PressPDF_4598_1348129105.pdf [9/20/12] 4 - money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=5d36f6bd-6f3a-4dad-b5c7-db819e3b1e8d [9/21/12] 5 - www.cnbc.com/id/49032125 [9/21/12] 6 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [9/21/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F21%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/21/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F21%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/21/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F21%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/21/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F21%2F07&x=0&y=0 [9/21/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F21%2F07&x=0&y=0 [9/21/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F21%2F07&x=0&y=0 [9/21/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F20%2F02&x=0&y=0 [9/21/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F20%2F02&x=0&y=0 [9/21/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F20%2F02&x=0&y=0 [9/21/12] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/21/12] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/21/12] 9 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm71002.pdf [7/10/02]


9.24.12 Weekly Economic Update